Deterrence

[amit]

How about this one? The Chinese continue to be adept at accepting mass murder on a scale most nations would shy away from.

Chinese region must conduct 20000 abortions

China victims decry forced late-term abortions

Vera,

You post these two links to support the premise that China would be willing to take a nuclear bomb (even a piddly 20kt bomb) landing on Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and other major production centres in Pearl River Delta? Note I'm not even talking about bombs going all the way to Beijing or even to HK.

This will effectively destroy China's huge supply chain logistics which makes it the factory of the world and supplies its $2t+ foreign exchange kitty. And it will result in huge social problems which the Chinese leadership desperately wants to avoid. The Chinese themselves have said that less than 7 per cent growth means more people join the workforce in a year than there are jobs created.

Given all this, the question that needs to be asked is what benefit would China want vis a vis India to take all this pain and escalate to a nuclear exchange? I don't think folks who raise the bogey of Chinese willing to take millions of casualties in the nuclear exchange have answered this question?

Surely the Chinese don't want to annex India? Arunachal perhaps but even that is uncertain. The only conceivable objectives for a Chinese attack could be, IMO:

1) Annexation of Tawang because when the Dalai Lama passes away that place as the second most scared place for Tibetan Buddhists is important to China.

2) To humiliate India like in 1962 for the same reasons which Shiv ji highlighted in his post.

So IMO even if China attacks it will be careful to ensure the fighting remains confined to the borders. At it will be extremely careful to ensure that it's Armed forces do not suffer a bloody nose. In fact in tight situations it has been shown that the present generation of Chinese leaders have erred on the side of caution, instead of displaying Mao-era bravado.

Far more profitable and fail safe venture for the Chinese is to get their Munna to do the pin-pricking of India, while it ensures that there is sufficient tension on the Arunachal border to tie down a good portion of India's forces including the dreaded Su-30 MKI . I think the IAF's resent call for buying more of these super planes should be seen in this context.

JMT

[vera_k]

Given all this, the question that needs to be asked is what benefit would China want vis a vis India to take all this pain and escalate to a nuclear exchange? I don't think folks who raise the bogey of Chinese willing to take millions of casualties in the nuclear exchange have answered this question?

I posted the links to show that they have been wilfully taking much larger casualties than a 20kt nuclear weapon can inflict. Which goes to show that they can not be considered to be rational in a way that makes sense in the ordinary meaning of the word.

As for how they'd benefit, they'd would be willing to take short term pain (i.e. millions of dead) if it means that India never rises again to challenge them. After all, they continue to kill millions of their future citizens under the one-child policy.

[amit]

I posted the links to show that they have been wilfully taking much larger casualties than a 20kt nuclear weapon can inflict. Which goes to show that they can not be considered to be rational in a way that makes sense in the ordinary meaning of the word.

As for how they'd benefit, they'd would be willing to take short term pain if it means that India never rises again to challenge them.

Vera,

I don't think you understand the psychological effect of having almost a million of your citizens fried by nuclear bombs. Otherwise there's no way you would make such a apples and oranges comparison.

If we take your line of reasoning then India can too take a lot of pain, considering how many people die an unnatural death, or death due to negligence every year.

I would request you to re-read Shiv ji post to understand the concept of honour in Han culture. More than the actual deaths the Chinese leadership would be hurt by the "humiliation" of having nuclear bombs dropping on their cities and their inability to prevent that.

Tell me why do you think China still hasn't taken Taiwan by force? Sure the US would (probably) retaliate but even then China has had enough muscle power for past 20 years to actually take Taiwan, even after suffering huge losses. Yet it chose not to and that's because it doesn't want to suffer the humiliation of getting a bloody nose while taking Taiwan.

Always remember, the Han may have a lot of faults but they are not irrational. They are not going to risk a nuclear war to ensure that India never challenges them. They are confident they can get the Pakis to box in India in South Asia. And many of their strategic thinkers already think that India will never challenge them and so they are concentrating their energies on the US.

I mentioned this before but anyone interesting in getting a fair idea of how the Chinese leadership startegise please read Martin Jacques' excellent book: When China Rules the World (published by Penguin).

JMT and other disclaimers.

[vera_k]

I don't think you understand the psychological effect of having almost a million of your citizens fried by nuclear bombs. Otherwise there's no way you would make such a apples and oranges comparison.

What kind of phychological impact can there be if the leadership is unconcerned about the fate of the people it governs? If the leadership is motivated solely by a desire to perpetuate itself, then any number of casualties are acceptable as long as the people don't revolt against the leadership.

If we take your line of reasoning then India can too take a lot of pain, considering how many people die an unnatural death, or death due to negligence every year.

Yes, we can. But the actions of the two leaderships are as different as homicide and manslaughter by gross negligence.

Tell me why do you think China still hasn't taken Taiwan by force? Sure the US would (probably) retaliate but even then China has had enough muscle power for past 20 years to actually take Taiwan, even after suffering huge losses.

The only reason they haven't is because Taiwan is an island and the PLN would be sunk if they tried. Would be kind of hard to maintain control of an island without a navy.

[amit]

What kind of phychological impact can there be if the leadership is unconcerned about the fate of the people it governs? If the leadership is motivated solely by a desire to perpetuate itself, then any number of casualties are acceptable as long as the people don't revolt against the leadership.

The key to your understanding of the situation lies in the bolded portion of what you wrote.

If you even then don't understand what I'm trying to say, then there's no point continuing this discussion.

The Chinese dictatorship rules the country on the basis of a compact with its citizens. That means Communist dictatorship with a capitalist face is the type of government that is the best for the country and it ensures steady prosperity and wealth accumulation. Till now both sides have kept to the bargain. The leadership has ensured wealth creation and for its part the masses have by and large kept their peace.

An nuclear exchange makes it impossible for the dictatorship to keep its part of the bargain. Not only that much of wealth creation that the masses have enjoyed goes up in radiation.

As a result the compact gets broken. And if you don't have such a compact it is impossible to govern 1.3 billion people via a dictatorship which depends on military and cadre power to keep peace.

Just look up new reports of the kind of rioting and arson that has taken place in interior China over the last year or so as factories closed down and people lost their jobs/savings - thus breaking the compact. These have happened in localised pockets and hence have been contained. But if this happens countrywide then it will be impossible to contain.

IMO, the risks are too great and the rewards are too piddle and also theoretically attainable by other means for the Chinese leadership to escalate to a nuclear exchange.

This has nothing to do with compassion or lack of it that the Chinese leadership feels towards its citizens. It just cold minded calculation of the cost benefit kind.

Anyway don't think I can convince you, so my last post directed to you on this issue.

Cheers!

[ShauryaT]

Always remember, the Han may have a lot of faults but they are not irrational. They are not going to risk a nuclear war to ensure that India never challenges them. They are confident they can get the Pakis to box in India in South Asia. And many of their strategic thinkers already think that India will never challenge them and so they are concentrating their energies on the US.

A matter of capabilities or intent?

[amit]

A matter of capabilities or intent?

More than anything else I think it is a result of a typical Han sense of over confidence.

India does not have or does the things that would impress the Han. Things like megalomaniac inspired mega structures, over built cities and grandiose gestures.

And with Chinese GDP more than twice India's and with US and others falling at the feet of the cabal that rules the Middle Kingdom, I get a sense that the Chinese strategic folks, whom I occasionally meet, have convinced themselves that they have arrived and the 21st century belongs to G2 with China on top and the US at No2.

They will keep an eye on India of course but I don't think they think that India will seriously challenge them. However, for good measure they will ensure their rabid pet dog continues to pester us while they keep the pressure on Arunachal and set up proxies in Maynmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. This is what I meant by a low cost alternative to a nuclear war to teach India her place in the sun.

Will Indian leadership be able to steer away from all this? Who knows? Unfortunately I'm not too confident at this stage.

Please treat what I have written as a humble rant. FWIW and all that.

[amit]

As an addendum to my post I would also like to point out that this Han overconfidence is both their strength as well as weakness. I have a feeling that Uncle Sam has figured this out. It may be useful to look at recent interactions between the two nations keeping this in mind.

[Rahul M]

amit boss, have a look at an article I posted in the china military thread. it contains excerpts from chinese articles on India. at least some have a more realistic appraisal of India's capability and potential. it is incorrect to paint all with the same brush.

vera, you are missing the point. a nuke attack on a major chinese city will wreak havoc on two things
> industrial and urban infrastructure that is china's pride and joy
> urban elite population.
it is only the loss of the rural peasant population whose loss is still somewhat acceptable to the CCP. they however will not be the target in case of nuclear war.

I'll submit that the CCP is no longer prepared to accept a loss to either. any such strike will be a serious H&D blow that will bring CCP's legitimacy into question, not to mention internal rebellion in the CCP itself. for it is the second category that forms the core of the CCP, much like the RAPE class of pakistan and includes relatives and family members of the CCP and PLA elite.

as a matter of fact, the evolution of the capitalist era has changed the psyche of the PRC elite to something akin to the US elite, in that they are not ready to accept *any* major loss on the mainland.

[Sanku]

There are tons of incidents available to show

1) China does not care for life
2) China cares for H&D
3) China is willing to take horrendous losses for a long term goal.

We have seen this as recently as the Tibetan episode and Olympics etc.

I know that some of us have the magnificent capability of being able to sleep well at night by choosing to wish away what data exists and hoping that although the sun has kept rising from the east for 1000000 years, it must now be bored of rising from the east and there fore will rise from the west tomorrow.

This appears to be a very Indic trait -- I was rereading Savarkar's book on the first war of independence and was stuck on how despite being cheated left right and center by British, the Indians would dutifully trot up to the British hoping for a resolution of the grievances (caused by the British themselves in the first place) only if they explained their stand to the British any more.

Our deterrence against China is a joke -- we might as well send dossier now that's the Indian way -- that some people seem to be too proud to label sheer madness by our country as.

[Sanku]

as a matter of fact, the evolution of the capitalist era has changed the psyche of the PRC elite to something akin to the US elite, in that they are not ready to accept *any* major loss on the mainland.

I disagree, we have seen no indications of that. As recently as the Olympics the Chinese relocated under extreme duress whole villages of people who got in the way.

And they were urban.

There is no data point to show that Chinese have "changed"

[harbans]

While we are at it, just curious if Chinese will be able to take the loss of 3 gorges? What kind of havoc will that create? How many nukes needed for that? All in case of a nuke war scenario obviously, because it is detestable thinking IMHO..

[csharma]

A matter of capabilities or intent?

More than anything else I think it is a result of a typical Han sense of over confidence.

India does not have or does the things that would impress the Han. Things like megalomaniac inspired mega structures, over built cities and grandiose gestures.

And with Chinese GDP more than twice India's and with US and others falling at the feet of the cabal that rules the Middle Kingdom, I get a sense that the Chinese strategic folks, whom I occasionally meet, have convinced themselves that they have arrived and the 21st century belongs to G2 with China on top and the US at No2.

They will keep an eye on India of course but I don't think they think that India will seriously challenge them. However, for good measure they will ensure their rabid pet dog continues to pester us while they keep the pressure on Arunachal and set up proxies in Maynmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. This is what I meant by a low cost alternative to a nuclear war to teach India her place in the sun.

Will Indian leadership be able to steer away from all this? Who knows? Unfortunately I'm not too confident at this stage.

Please treat what I have written as a humble rant. FWIW and all that.

amit, interesting points. From pure military point of view, I cannot see how China can already declare victory with G2 and all. Unless of course the Chinese strategists are assuming that India's growth and the military will not pan out as people are projecting now. Only yesterday I was reading a paper where the Chinese strategists are kind of assuring themselves that India's dominance of Indian Ocean may not exactly pan out.

There was a separate paper by an Indian guy who was saying that the Chinese cannot pose a real threat in the Indian Ocean in the near to mid term. That gives India time to build her economy and the armed forces.

It appears that GoI is taking the China threat somewhat seriously and beginning to prepare for it. GDP growth of 7% over next 10-15 years will enable India to have a defence budget of 80-100 billion dollars and that can provide a fair amount of military muscle, IMHO.

[Rahul M]

as a matter of fact, the evolution of the capitalist era has changed the psyche of the PRC elite to something akin to the US elite, in that they are not ready to accept *any* major loss on the mainland.

.........As recently as the Olympics the Chinese relocated under extreme duress whole villages of people who got in the way.

And they were urban.
.......

errr......

[amit]

amit boss, have a look at an article I posted in the china military thread. it contains excerpts from chinese articles on India. at least some have a more realistic appraisal of India's capability and potential. it is incorrect to paint all with the same brush.

Rahul,

Don't get me wrong, it would be grave mistake to think of China to be a monolithic entity. Sure there are folks who give a more realistic assessment and I'm sure there are some in the leadership cabal who are also more realistic.

However, if you look at things from a more Macro perspective you can notice that China is now moving in to engage and challenge the US because it is confident that it no longer needs to keep a wary eye out for Asian rivals like India and Japan.

And I get the sense that they don't think that India can catch up to them in terms of economic might or military power and will always play a second fiddle. They certainly don't put India in the category of third rate power like Pakistan but I don't think they feel at this point of time that India is their equal in any respect.

JMT

[shiv]

But Indians too are ignoring tens of thousands of deaths in India.

• 1) Women dying at childbirth
  2) Infants dying of malnutrition and disease
  3) Highest rate of road accidents in the world
  4) Carrying on as if nothing has happened despite having more terrorism related deaths than all countries save Iraq.
  5) So many other parameters that I will list if pushed

At least points 1 to 3 make the news regularly. We just do not want to admit them as evidence of Indian callousness. Talking about the Chinese being callous about dying Chinese is needless jealousy. We are right up there with them.

[amit]

as a matter of fact, the evolution of the capitalist era has changed the psyche of the PRC elite to something akin to the US elite, in that they are not ready to accept *any* major loss on the mainland.

I disagree, we have seen no indications of that. As recently as the Olympics the Chinese relocated under extreme duress whole villages of people who got in the way.

And they were urban.

There is no data point to show that Chinese have "changed"

So you extrapolate the forcible destruction of Siheyuan localities in central Beijing (with the payment of compensation to the owners of these traditional Chinese residences) for the Olympics to conclude that China wouldn't mind taking a few 20kt (I'm sticking with this figure and not 150kt which the Chinese have no way of knowing with certainty whether India has or not, despite the BR Missile Page) bombs on Shanghai, Guangzhou and other manufacturing centres in the Peral River Delta area?

This is more difficult to digest than scaling up our FBF to 150kt-200kt.

Sabaash!

And for what gain? To teach India a lesson and get it to pay tribute to the Middle Kingdom?

[amit]

amit, interesting points. From pure military point of view, I cannot see how China can already declare victory with G2 and all. Unless of course the Chinese strategists are assuming that India's growth and the military will not pan out as people are projecting now. Only yesterday I was reading a paper where the Chinese strategists are kind of assuring themselves that India's dominance of Indian Ocean may not exactly pan out.

Boss we are getting into speculative territory.

However, let me state my impressions from various interactions.

I get the sense that the Chinese are intoxicated with their economic success and think everything else will follow naturally. And they measure India in terms of their economic success - the macro picture not the micro one which is very different.

I get a sense that they think the Indian Ocean problem (for them) is temporary and that's one reason they are building their Navy at a super fast pace.

I don't want to go into more details as it is becoming OT. We can continue if you so desire on any of the China threads.

[Rahul M]

amit, somehow from what I keep reading it occurred to me that it is a little strange that the chinese who are otherwise quite the realist when it came to geo-politics would suddenly become all bluster when it came to India.

perhaps it is because they have figured out one of the piskological traits that we believe something only if outsiders say it ? all they have to do is say India is weak and many Indians would believe that.

I believe there's a foreign policy maxim of some kind that says that "let the enemy believe what it wants to believe".

===============

sanku ji, it is my understanding that PRC does not want a nuclear war to sort India out. it believes it can do that using softer means over a longer period of time without accepting any of the losses associated with a nuclear confrontation.

in fact, do keep in mind that PRC could have 'sorted out' the USSR, a much larger and capable adversary than current India in the glory old days when it was perfectly acceptable to incur millions of deaths in a nuclear war (or so we think. it could well have been bluster and mind games back then too !). the number of major urban and industrial centers of USSR were quite limited for that to be a viable option. the fact that they didn't even try, in spite of the boast and numerous border conflicts points out that the CCP does not consider nuclear was to be solution.

the examples you or others give does not include or disturb the elite. even in the villages/towns re-located for the 3G dam project, you can be sure that it was done under controlled conditions and the interests of party honchos were adequately looked after.

do look around, only some part of PRC is considered expendable, some parts are not. that has not changed.
a fine example would be look at the resources poured into protecting the main cities and industrial hubs, in terms of ABM cover and early warning systems.

if they didn't care for these they would have used the resources into building more ICBMs targeting the US. for the chinese deterrence against US is still very limited, only a few dozens of BMs at most, probably lower.

[Sanku]

.........As recently as the Olympics the Chinese relocated under extreme duress whole villages of people who got in the way.

And they were urban.
.......

errr......

Sorry I meant urban villages, in the sense of a locality within a city.

BTW why are we discussing deterrence in this thread istead of the one on the same?

[Rahul M]

BTW why are we discussing deterrence in this thread istead of the one on the same?

I've no idea. you people were discussing so I joined in !

[amit]

amit, somehow from what I keep reading it occurred to me that it is a little strange that the chinese who are otherwise quite the realist when it came to geo-politics would suddenly become all bluster when it came to India.

perhaps it is because they have figured out one of the piskological traits that we believe something only if outsiders say it ? all they have to do is say India is weak and many Indians would believe that.

I believe there's a foreign policy maxim of some kind that says that "let the enemy believe what it wants to believe".

Rahul boss,

Spot on!

One of the reasons I jumped into the China discussion was to disabuse the notion being peddled here that the China of today would be willing to take 100s of thousands of casualties in the nuclear war and a potential crippling of their manufacturing supply chain/logistics.

And for what? To teach India a lesson? Hah!

Mind you, outside of Arunachal and more specifically Tawang, China has no territorial claims on India. What is wants to do is to keep India boxed in South Asia.

I really don't see why they need to get to a nuclear war stage for that?

As Sanku says, in a India-China war, it is certain China will be the first to use N-bombs. Now why the heck would they do that? For what purpose. Even the mad Paki generals have made it known that they would use their Chinese toys only when their existence as a nation is threatened.

As you said we believe a nuclear war with China is inevitable if there's a border clash due to our piskological trait of believing what foreigners want us to believe. One reason why a former AEC boss want international experts to vet POK2.

If we believe that if we fight with China on the border of Arunachal it could lead to a nuclear war, that would make us think twice before going on the aggression and beating the crap out of them, nah?

[Sanku]

sanku ji, it is my understanding that PRC does not want a nuclear war to sort India out. it believes it can do that using softer means over a longer period of time without accepting any of the losses associated with a nuclear confrontation.

Yes but my understanding is that when sooner or later when they fail in the conventional or the low intensity conflict as they are sure too, they WILL up the ante.

We have to be ready for when they raise the stakes. They may not, but we can not plan on that assumption. We have to plan on the assumption of their raising the stakes.

The worst case.

in fact, do keep in mind that PRC could have 'sorted out' the USSR, a much larger and capable adversary than current India in the glory old days when it was perfectly acceptable to incur millions of deaths in a nuclear war (or so we think

I disagree, USSR always had massive and overwhelming superiority of all sorts including the same mad streak in its leadership that China had -- always.

the examples you or others give does not include or disturb the elite.

So far yes, but then they have in the past, even before Mao found it perfectly acceptable to sacrifice the elite when needed.

Why should it be different now?

They dont have the same elite concepts that we have.

if they didn't care for these they would have used the resources into building more ICBMs targeting the US. for the chinese deterrence against US is still very limited, only a few dozens of BMs at most, probably lower.

Yes but Chinese and US are very different, I accept that it is possible to deter US with a few Nukes, Chinese are different.

[Sanku]

And for what gain? To teach India a lesson and get it to pay tribute to the Middle Kingdom?

Amit first and foremost you have to understand that you are taking only a very narrow position of possible future political scenarios.

You need to broaden your thinking.

[amit]

You need to broaden your thinking.

Sanku,

I've been keeping my temper since the past few days despite your personal attacks.

Please stop giving me gratuitous advice. I have enough professional recognition in the field of my work to not require a certification from you or anyone else on BRF.

I hope this is the last time I see this kind of trash. Disagree with my POV if you have to but keep your opinions about me and what I should do to educate myself to yourself.

Next time my reaction will not be polite.

[Sanku]

You need to broaden your thinking.

Sanku,

I've been keeping my temper since the past few days despite your personal attacks.

Please stop giving me gratuitous advice. I have enough professional recognition in the field of my work to not require a certification from you or anyone else on BRF.

I hope this is the last time I see this kind of trash. Disagree with my POV if you have to but please keep your opinions to yourself.

Next time my reaction will not be polite.

Wow!!

I dont see what is there to get angry about if I say "dont look at all only one possibility but all possible set of outcomes"

To this you threaten me that I am attacking personally and tell me you wont hold your temper and bring all sorts of "I am great and who are you tell me this or that?"

There is no point in my having any one to one discussion with you frankly, this will be the last time I will directly respond to you -- this is good for you too. You are too great to have to listen to some one lowly like me.

Thank you for your time and sorry to have to caused to listen to trash!

[Sanku]

I meant damage that can be caused by a Nuclear strike on 3 gorges. If i am not mistaken their economy would be finished.

I do not know of the impact that destruction of 3G dam on their economy directly. However it is safe to assume that even if we take 3G out of the picture temporarily, we will be able to hurt at least some of their significant economic centers in South China to an extent.

Enough to cause a serious setback to their economy for a period.

However the question is how much of it will be a temporary loss they will be able to accept and move on.

Thats why I suspect the only stable equilibrium is MAD, they have to be convinced that we can finish their nation for all foreseeable time.

They can certainly do that to us.

[archan]

Jai ho,
amit ji and sanku ji... please make use of the ignore function of the forum. It will do you good.

[negi]

The very fact that there exists a nuclear doctrine and that GOI has a MCD policy in place implies that threat of being nuked by our peaceful neighbors or anyone for that matter is genuine
and serious enough to warrant a formation of nuclear command.

It makes little sense to debate over the issue if PRC,TSP or anyone would nuke us in future for we are no mind readers or astrologers to predict IF or WHEN some one would nuke us , the seemingly intelligent or practical thoughts on costs ,dammage or loss of human life which enemy is ready to incur are not something which can be quantified or even binding as far as WAR is concerned.The prudent thing to do in such a case is to DEPLOY nukes which would strengthen and lend credence to our NFU posture.

[Manish_Sharma]

I feel the three things that worry China regarding India most are:
1. Respect India is earning in the world for its democracy and human rights record. Plus unlike chinese the west & ru does not sees india as threat or having the dream of taking over the world.
2. While China is growing old fast with its one child policy, india is having such a big population of young people. So when the CCP looks about 30 years ahead, it does see indians taking over the production work done by China now and providing it much better qualitywise. Already they see India taking over China in exporting small cars, also the reliability and quality people are appreciating of these cars compared to China. While China exported 1.60 lakh cars, India has exported 2.65 lakh. Not to mention the super prowess in softwares.
3. India easily blocking the oil tankers passing through indian ocean to China. Imagine during the war India stopping or blowing up 3-4 oil tankers going to China.

But inspite of all this China has bigger enemies or competitors in US and Russia.

Now if China gets into nuclear exchange with India and destroys 20 indian cities while losing 8 of its own industrial cities plus some mega projects like tibet rail, 3g dam, 3 oil tankers, 2 ports and few refineries. It will be considerably weakened. Its dream of surging ahead of US will be delayed at least by 100 years and even after that who knows.

Not only that it will be at the mercy of US + NATO + Rus taking advantage of its weakened position. This time it is a far cry from a closed country of Mao's past. In the age of internet and globalisation its citizens are fully connected and aware of the world.

So what it does is use the porki whore to wage war on India in two stages:
Stage 1: Proxy war or thousand cut war by islamic jehad.
Stage 2: Preparing the porki whore for the nuclear exchange.

Now when the nuke exchange happens with porkis. We will be inclined to use the nukes first against porkis thus spending part of our "anyway not so big minimum credible deterrent".

This gives Chinese three advantages, first is part of our arsenel is already spent on porkis. Secondly it gives them a small but crucial time window to take out rest of our missile bases etc. Whatever rest is thrown at them will have to go through their ABM defence. So some may fail on its own some may be tackled by ABM and some 20kts reach. Thirdly they can say to the west that they were only preventing india to escalate and launch more, so no sanctions from west.

This is the reason for Bharatvarsh to have more reason for fully tested reliable "Daada Banaye, Pota Barte" TN warhead. Not a claim that "India has the capability to make 200kt warhead".

Now by TN capability I don't say we need Megaton or even 500kt warheads. No just sadaa 200kt TN very very well tested warhead will do. Thus saving on the fissile material plus lighter warheads in much much greater numbers. More numbers + More dispersed = More survivablity.

We cannot base the national security on the guess of how much threat of losing how many million people may deter PRC. No they should be sure of going back at least by 100 years only that will deter them.

With this capability we can let it be known clearly to the world and prc that any nuke attack by the world renouned porki whore on the motherland and we will see it as attack by prc too. Thus retaliating at the both of them. This is the only way I see prc holding porkis back in any misadventure.

Like Santhanam said this India can't do with two 20kt warheads over Beijing. Who know in 10 years somebody more ruthless takes over from Hu Jintao. Or some economic calamity befalls PRC and to divert the attention of antirevolutioneries CCP launches attack against India. No there are millions of possibilities happening in which India may be caught with piddly warheads in tiny numbers.

Do the test of 200kt. TN warheads 6 times in three different designs. Each design should be tested at least twice each for the reliability.

Sanctions < destruction of 10 cities
Sanctions < destruction of 2 cities
Sanctions < destruction of 1 city
Sanctions < destruction of 1/4th of the city.
Sanctions < losing AP.

[shiv]

Manish that is a good post. If I have any quibbles I will have to re read and think about them

Thanks for taking the trouble to put down your thoughts in such a fine manner.

[NRao]

Now if China gets into nuclear exchange with India and destroys 20 indian cities while losing 8 of its own industrial cities plus some mega projects like tibet rail, 3g dam, 3 oil tankers, 2 ports and few refineries. It will be considerably weakened. Its dream of surging ahead of US will be delayed at least by 100 years and even after that who knows.

Not only that it will be at the mercy of US + NATO + Rus taking advantage of its weakened position. This time it is a far cry from a closed country of Mao's past. In the age of internet and globalisation its citizens are fully connected and aware of the world.

So what it does is use the porki whore to wage war on India in two stages:
Stage 1: Proxy war or thousand cut war by islamic jehad.
Stage 2: Preparing the porki whore for the nuclear exchange.

I will take out China along with Pakistan. What now? IF you KNOW that Pakistan is a proxy, you have no option.

I have a very strange feeling that India is fairly close to dismembering Pakistan WRT Baluchistan. And, of course, there is very fresh news that India MAY actually be in touch with the Taliban in Afghanistan!!!!!!

A little too early, BUT, a nuclear option is not one that is easily made/taken. We seem to talk about it as though it could happen any time.

It is the very last option, when every thing else has failed. I bet that includes serious threats from the US and Russia - just to knock some sense into the participants. Kargil could have been a good study in the matter - even though it did not quite reach the boiling point, IMHO. May be I am wrong.

[SSridhar]

Now when the nuke exchange happens with porkis. We will be inclined to use the nukes first against porkis thus spending part of our "anyway not so big minimum credible deterrent".

This gives Chinese three advantages, first is part of our arsenel is already spent on porkis. Secondly it gives them a small but crucial time window to take out rest of our missile bases etc.

Manish_Sharma, a good and well thought out post. IMO, both scenarios, one of Pakistan initiating a nuclear exchange in which PRC joins or the other where China initiates with Pakistan joining in, are possible. The bottom line is therefore that India will face a barrage from two directions simultaneously. The Chinese aim will always be counterforce to remove as far as possible all our nuke weapon/missile sites with as minimum a force as possible. It will leave the countervalue attacks to Pakistan. It may thus hope to escape international opprobrium and possible sanctions. It will even help China put India in the dock when India counter attacks population centre/industrial cities etc. China will have to preserve as many nukes as possible because it will never know whether some Indian sites had escaped the attack or even if some 'others' might retaliate on behalf of India (a very remote possibility though).

Stage 1: Proxy war or thousand cut war by islamic jehad.
Stage 2: Preparing the porki whore for the nuclear exchange.

A minor correction. There is a stage 1A which is currently going on where Pakistan conducts more and more audacious jihadi attacks on India under threat of a nuclear attack.

. . . we can let it be known clearly to the world and prc that any nuke attack by the world renouned porki whore on the motherland and we will see it as attack by prc too.

The Indian Nuclear Doctrine underwent a subtle but significant change in 2003 when it was modified to state that India may even attack NNWS countries that are aligned with a NWS that attacks India.

No NWS has remained content with being a countervalue force alone. We have no option but to move towards a counterforce posture, under the current political and military dispensation in the region. When that happens, our defensive nuclear doctrine has to necessarily change from being a NFU to a FU.

[KiranM]

Sridhar Sir, I distinctly remember reading in papers that India has changed the doctrine to 'an almost first use' type with the declaration that any nation using WMD (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) will face nuclear strike.

Regards,
Kiran

[Manish_Sharma]

Thank you Shiv for liking my post, means a lot to me!

[Manish_Sharma]

N Rao the thing is separation of Baluchistan from Pakistan won't solve the problem regarding India. In fact it would create a soft border with Baluchs (in the case of us having a direct border with them). Just like Bangladesh. I remember an article of KR Malkani regarding this some years back. It was on the lines of population explosion in Pakistan and BD being 5-6 times more than India. Will get back on this issue.

[SSridhar]

I distinctly remember reading in papers that India has changed the doctrine to 'an almost first use' type with the declaration that any nation using WMD (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) will face nuclear strike.

Regards,
Kiran

Yes, you are right about WMDs (chemical & biological). See this post. But, still it is not strictly FU. Chemical & biological weapons have been clubbed along with nukes as WMD and India treats such a WMD attack as triggering a nuclear response because India is a member of both Chemical and Biological Weapons Treaties and hence will not be able to retaliate if attacked with those weapons. It can and will therefore respond with nukes.

[Manish_Sharma]

. . . we can let it be known clearly to the world and prc that any nuke attack by the world renouned porki whore on the motherland and we will see it as attack by prc too.

The Indian Nuclear Doctrine underwent a subtle but significant change in 2003 when it was modified to state that India may even attack NNWS countries that are aligned with a NWS that attacks India.

No NWS has remained content with being a countervalue force alone. We have no option but to move towards a counterforce posture, under the current political and military dispensation in the region. When that happens, our defensive nuclear doctrine has to necessarily change from being a NFU to a FU.

Thank you very much Sridhar for liking my post.

I have a question regarding this change in our Nuclear Doctrine, as you mentioned regarding NNWS countries.

Is it based upon countering the String of Pearls or in case of some nukes being kept in BD by Pakistan?

[SSridhar]

Is it based upon countering the String of Pearls or in case of some nukes being kept in BD by Pakistan?

It could be anything, though I doubt if countries like BD or Nepal or SL would let PRC place their nukes on their soil thereby antagonizing India. The message is even NNWS aligned with a nuclear power could be targetted by India. This could also mean that Pakistan cannot try to take advantage of the situation by attacking us with conventional forces while a nuclear exchange is on-going between PRC and India expecting that India would not hit her with a nuke because of the NFU policy of Indian Nuclear Doctrine of 1999.

The exact clause from IND:

India will not resort to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons against states which do not posses nuclear weapons, or are not aligned with nuclear weapon powers.

[Manish_Sharma]

Very Nice! Thanks Sridhar, its heartening to see such things from Bhartiya side from time to time!