Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 28 Jan 2010 13:31

Gurcharan Das's statistics need validation. The one that caught my attention was his claim of a 80% literacy rate in 2011. Per the National Literacy Mission, this is projected to be about 73% in 2011.

Adult literacy report writes a success story

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Jan 2010 22:48

I made a post about Gurucharan Das and his view on the future. I hoped that folks would share his optimism but am disappointed that members look for the dungeons in his castles in the air.

And while he is talking about wealth across a dividing line folks bring in time zones! Good job.

PS: In old days the Line was much farther West.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 29 Jan 2010 00:32

ramana wrote:Watch for 2012 when India overtakes a lot of other economies.

Ah....now I understand the Mayan 2012 prophecy - it actually was predicting the "end of World as we know it" ie. Supremacy of G7

Added: But why is the India map without parts of Kashmir?
Addition 2: I always thought India should have had Elephant as its national animal.

Amit: Imagine what would be the case in Port Blair. I used to go my typing class in the mornings 5:30 or 6:00am. It used to be totally bright.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Jan 2010 02:01

A day ahead of its monetary policy review, RBI upgrades its 2009-10 and 2010-11 fiscal GDP forecasts:
Press Release: Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments : Third Quarter Review 2009-10
Official Report: Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments : Third Quarter Review 2009-10
GDP growth projection changes:
Current fiscal (2009-10): Upgraded from 6.0% to 6.9%
Next fiscal (2010-11): Upgraded from 7.7% to 7.9%
RBI's estimates tend to be conservative, based on estimates vs actuals in recent years.

New GST rollout date to be announced in April

It is official. The much-anticipated Goods and Services Tax (GST), which will replace most of the indirect taxes levied by the Centre and states, will not be introduced from the targeted date of April 1.

The Bills pertaining to the introduction of a new law and amendment to the Constitution will not be tabled in the coming Budget session of Parliament. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and state finance ministers will meet in April to decide a new date for the GST rollout.

For the first time, Asim Dasgupta, head of the empowered group of state finance ministers, clearly stated that the April 1 deadline would not be met as a range of issues were to be resolved first before introducing GST.

“Because of the difficulties connected with the passing of the required constitutional amendment Bill in the Budget session, it will not be practical to introduce GST from April 1. A date will be settled after meeting the finance minister in April,” Dasgupta, who is also the finance minister of West Bengal, told reporters after a meeting of the empowered committee with Mukherjee today.

While a GST rate and other issues in the proposed tax system would be discussed in April, preparations for rules and procedures for implementation of GST and information technology infrastructure “should be in full swing” now, Dasgupta said.

He added that a draft had already been prepared for amending the Constitution and it was being discussed with the law ministry for its comments.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 29 Jan 2010 04:56

="SwamyG"]
ramana wrote:Watch for 2012 when India overtakes a lot of other economies.
Ah....now I understand the Mayan 2012 prophecy - it actually was predicting the "end of World as we know it" ie. Supremacy of G7

In Satyug, Dharma rules inspite of Pakis on all four. All these bright economic predictions are made without counting Black economy!!... makes them even brighter.

amit · Post by **amit** » 29 Jan 2010 13:20

SwamyG wrote:Amit: Imagine what would be the case in Port Blair. I used to go my typing class in the mornings 5:30 or 6:00am. It used to be totally bright.

SwamyG,

Yes your spot on. I forgot about Port Blair and its longitudinal position vis a vis Mumbai or Nagpur.

What a skewed time zones does is shorten the daylight hours in which business can be transacted. If we take, for example, the standard business hours to be 9am-6pm then if you have bright light at 5.30 am in the morning, that means by 4 pm or so it starts to get dark.

May not make much of a difference to an office goer, but think of the trouble a vegetable vendor, for example, would have.

The net result is the entire population of the area would have to start business early and end early and thus not be sync with the rest of the country.

Of course I would repeat my caveat that this cannot be touted as an excuse for the relative less development in a resource rich state like Assam.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 29 Jan 2010 22:19

Amit:
I have never ever encountered the issue of daylight hours in India. Probably members of the "oldest profession" cared; but I did not see people showing takleef. In desh, some cities go on almost round the clock without affecting the economy. From the perspective of economy I did not see any problems. Maybe I was not looking for the problems. I would not mind being illuminated.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 29 Jan 2010 22:42

The net result is the entire population of the area would have to start business early and end early and thus not be sync with the rest of the country.

umm, even with DST real work hours will not be at sync with rest of the country. sure, all people will go to work at 9 AM,say but 9 AM at one place will be different from that at another place.

I think much hoohaa is done on this without much justification, people at any place know what time the sun rises and sets at their place and the work hours are set accordingly. in western India for example the workday for small traders and shopkeepers start about an hour later if you go by the watch than it does in eastern India. I really don't see how this is a big problem or how DST solves it.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Jan 2010 03:57

As expected, RBI ups CRR:
RBI increases CRR 0.75%, leaves benchmark rates unchanged

The Reserve Bank of India today launched an assault on inflation by increasing the cash reserve ratio (CRR) 75 basis points to 5.75 per cent. While sounding upbeat on economic growth, the central bank has kept the door open for an increase in interest rates even before the annual policy statement in April.

At a post-policy press conference RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao flagged inflation as the policy’s main concern, stating that the central bank “struggled with price-based variables and quantity-based variables” but settled for a CRR increase as the move will anchor inflationary expectations without upsetting growth.

Borrowing a metaphor from the Mahabharata, Dr Subbarao said, “Getting out of an expansionary policy is incredibly more complex than getting in. It is like the Chakravyuh in Mahabharata — you know how to get in but it is very difficult, and not many people know, how to get out.”

The CRR increase will take place in two phases. In the first phase, effective from fortnight starting February 13, the proportion of deposits that banks set aside will be increased by 50 basis points. It will be followed by another 25 basis point increase effective from the fortnight starting February 27.

The two rounds will together suck out Rs 36,000 crore from the system.

The central bank is worried about food inflation spilling over into other commodities and services and the limited ammunition available to combat food prices. This was largely due to a global rise in commodity prices and the limited opportunity to import food and manage domestic prices. As a result, the projection for inflation based on wholesale price index was raised to 8.5 per cent at the end of March, 200 basis points higher than the previous estimate.

The CRR rise did not result in bank interest rates rising:
No rate hikes: banks

Bankers today said they might not raise rates in the near future despite a 75 basis points (bps) increase in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) as credit demand was low and liquidity was expected to be sufficient.

There will, however, be an element of repricing of sub-prime lending rate (PLR) corporate loans, which is a focus area for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

HDFC Bank Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Aditya Puri said retail lending rates were unlikely to rise for another six months. Even SBI Chairman OP Bhatt said there was little chance of lending rates moving up.

“Right now, corporate loans are mispriced. With policy tightening, that may see a correction,” said a source in the central bank.

Per capita income grew 13.3% in 2008-09

Revised estimates of national income reveal that India’s per capita income grew by 13.3 per cent to Rs 40,141 in 2008-09, against the revised estimate of Rs 35,430 for 2007-08.

An earlier estimate had stated that the per capita income for 2008-09 had grown by 12.6 per cent on an annual basis to Rs 37,490, against the old estimate of Rs 33,283 for the same period.

However, according to the revised estimates, saving as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) declined to 32.5 per cent during 2008-09 compared to 36.4 per cent in 2007-08.

However, the growth in GDP stood at 6.7 per cent for 2008-09 by both the old and the new methods.

Tata Steel announces Rs.5700cr ($1.25 billion) expansion

Tata Steel plans to expand capacity to 10 million tonnes at Jamshedpur by August 2011 from 6.8 million tonnes.

To support this expansion, the company is also raising annual iron ore production 55 per cent to 17 million tonnes in India over the next two years. The expansion is expected to cost Rs 1,100 crore. The move is aimed at insulating its Jamshedpur plant from fluctuating raw material prices.

In its overseas projects, the company plans to develop iron ore and coal mines in Canada and Mozambique through two joint ventures. It also plans to develop a mini blast furnace under its Thailand subsidiary.

shynee · Post by **shynee** » 31 Jan 2010 01:54

India vs. China: Whose Economy Is Better? - Time

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 31 Jan 2010 11:51

Davos Annual Meeting 2010 - India's Future Agenda

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WKnDzytMx4

animesharma · Post by **animesharma** » 01 Feb 2010 03:11

The politics of Economics:A NDTV panel discussion @ LSE ,london

As our nation turns 60, many of our conventional notions have been challenged. And the biggest question that stares us in the face is - do we need to change the way we conduct our politics?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Feb 2010 12:42

India’s Manufacturing Output Rises Most in 17 Months In January

India’s manufacturing output accelerated at the fastest pace in 17 months in January, underscoring the central bank’s decision last week to start tightening monetary policy.

HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics’ Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 57.6 last month, compared with 55.6 in December, according to a report released today. That was the tenth monthly reading above 50, which indicates a gain in factory production.

Central Bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said last week “growing confidence in the recovery justifies moving further in reversing the crisis-driven expansionary stance,” and raised the amount lenders are required to set aside as reserves to prevent excess money in the banking system fanning inflation.

“Any lingering concern that India’s manufacturing recovery was tailing off should be well and truly put to rest by this strong release,” said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asia economist at HSBC Holdings in Singapore. “The recovery is by no means dependent on domestic demand alone.”

Auto sales again break records in January:
Maruti records highest ever sales in January

Maruti Suzuki, India's leading car maker has recorded its highest ever domestic as well as total sales.

The total vehicle sales of the company rose 33.3 per cent to 95,649 units in January 2009, as compared to 71, 779 units a year ago. Total domestic sales were up 21 per cent to 81,087 units as against 67,005 units.

Hyundai sales up 42% in January

The country's second largest carmaker, Hyundai Motor India, today reported 41.60 per cent growth in sales at 52,635 units in January 2010. The company had sold 37,171 units in January 2009.

Domestic sales during the month rose by 40.85 per cent to 29,601 units compared to 21,016 units in the same month last year, Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) said in a statement.

The domestic sales in January are the highest since 1998 when HMIL launched its flagship Santro in September, it added.

Exports have been in positive territory for two months now:
Exports up 9.3% in December

The country's exports grew for the second straight month in December by 9.3 per cent to $14.60 billion (around Rs 68,000 crore).

Overseas shipments were $13.36 billion in December 2008. Imports also turned around in December after 11 months, rising by 27.2 per cent to $24.75 billion compared to $19.45 in December 2008, according to the official data released today.

Exports had turned positive in November after falling for 13 straight months due to impact of the financial crisis. The shipments abroad had risen by 18.2 per cent to $13.19 billion in November.

During April-December this fiscal, merchandise consignments dropped by 20.3 per cent to $117.58 billion. Imports were valued at $193.82 billion in April- December 2009-10 against $253.80 billion in the same period last fiscal. The trade deficit in December rose to $10.14 billion from $6 billion in December 2008.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Feb 2010 16:05

WSJ

The Tyranny of the "Batch"

By AKHIL VERMA

Among the several facets of professional behavior I've had an opportunity to observe is the acute sensitivity of individuals around the context of their positioning within their organization's hierarchy.

Let me explain: It's not about the level or title itself but a peculiar focus on which graduating "batch" their peers or supervisors (note I am not mentioning juniors) belong to, relative to their own. More amusingly, it is also the indignation and affront if -- heaven forbid! -- the role involves reporting to someone who is from a more junior vintage. Oddly, no-one has ever asked me about the academic provenance or vintage of a peer or a supervisor who is not an Indian.

Given the nature of the professional pool I deal with, the context I am drawing on is conversations with those who have emerged from the nation's vaunted business schools. One would intuitively think that access to education at that level would eliminate or, at least minimize, these archaic sensitivities. But no.

Why is this so?

While the broader aspects of our fixation with hierarchy have and will always be a subject worthy of reams of research and dissertations, my discussions around this observation with several friends lead me to believe that there are a few key socio-cultural facets, each interesting and immensely complex in itself in understanding who we are as professionals. Here they are in no particular order:

* - An educational structure defined by a cultural and historical legacy. We have a rich legacy of the gurukul, where total devotion to --and an unquestioning belief in -- the guru or teacher were pillars of that system. Modified and melded with their own methods, the system was institutionalized further by the British, who created a system to churn out an army of efficient administrators. This approach meaningfully continues in most of our schools today and we have the enduring foundation of a system that has institutionalized authority. Ergo, the seniority and hierarchical overtones we experience in almost every organizational situation in India today;
* - A continuing legacy of "seniority" in our civil services, government departments and the vast public sector that still forms the bulk of the Indian workforce. India's famed civil services and our vast public sector enterprises – which I will collectively refer to as the bureaucracy - are well known bastions of the "batch" in the context of the advancement of an employee's career. It could be argued that given the pervasiveness and depth of the bureaucracy across the nation, it is but natural that this thinking continues to be core to how we think about organizations. One must be objective, however, in recognizing that as generally vilified as the bureaucracy is, there continue to be small but meaningful pockets of excellence that continue to allow these organizations to deliver on their goals;

“There is a well known analysis, perhaps apocryphal, around why Indian track and field athletes have generally never been successful on the global stage.”

- The impact of family-owned businesses. India's private sector is dominated by what are generally known as family-owned businesses. As is well known, the majority of them reward allegiance, tenure and, at senior levels, the ability of its senior managers to help "manage the environment." In line with the broader cultural ethos of India, seniority is respected. This segment is rapidly changing, though, as new generations of promoters or entrepreneurs are beginning the process of (re)building their organizations in the mould of meritocracies.

- High power-distance. Hofstede's seminal work on assessing culture threw up the critical and brilliantly articulated notion of how different cultures perceived and dealt with the power equation between individuals at different levels. Simply put, in Low power-distance cultures, people relate to each other more as equals regardless of formal positions. Subordinates are more comfortable with -- and demand the right to contribute to and critique -- the decisions of those in power. It is evident that our culture, in its general makeup, is quite the opposite.

- An orientation for defining success as relative to the accomplishments of a peer group. Isn't it strange that when speaking about success in private and individual conversations, the most common comments often are around comparisons with a peer group or alternatively around the age, stage and level of an individual's standing at a point in time. There is a well known analysis, perhaps apocryphal, around why Indian track and field athletes have generally never been successful on the global stage. Apparently, video analysis reveals that Indian athletes have a tendency to continually turn their necks sideways to keep an eye on their competitors rather than be singularly focused on the track ahead. The unnecessary body movements and the break in aerodynamic rhythm cause the loss of precious fractions of seconds. Whether the analysis is true or not, it presents a powerful visual that doesn't need further explanation.

The above is by no means an academic or comprehensive discussion on what professional hierarchy means in our present context. It is, however, an attempt to provoke us to think about our ability to someday be a true meritocracy. Perhaps, even a pragmatic meritocracy like Singapore's or Infosys's for that matter, as we rapidly come of age as a globally relevant and vibrant economic powerhouse -- and therefore if this should have any role to play in the real ethos of the type of leaders we develop within our emerging nation.
—Akhil Verma is an executive search consultant with Spencer Stuart. These are his personal views.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 01 Feb 2010 20:33

D Subbarao's CRR may not be enough to cool inflation fears, gyani commentators aver.

OT
^^I know, batch is a biatch. No wonder Pakistan appropriated 14-Aug-47 as its batch-mating day.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 01 Feb 2010 21:34

Billionaires Make More From Ideas Than Bubbles
I am sorry for posting the above link as it compares China vs India. Na, I am not really sorry

, it is just to gloat over the positive things about desh.

Google’s announcement this month that it is considering leaving China amid misgivings about censoring the Internet won’t change everything on its own. China’s top-down economy is thriving, while India’s is bureaucratic, inefficient and notoriously corrupt.

Yet India has a track record of innovation and a stable of internationally competitive companies that China doesn’t. India also has far superior laws on intellectual property and corporate governance. And China’s willingness to blow off Google plays to India’s relative advantage in these areas.

What China lacks is a growing roster of homegrown knowledge-based and technology outfits creating jobs, pushing the country up the value chain and inspiring young people to become the next Bill Gates.

It’s not the Three Gorges Dam or the Shanghai skyline, yet India’s technology billionaires are helping the government devise new strategies and spread the benefits of growth. China, for all its advantages, could use more of that dynamic. Waving goodbye to Google won’t help.

Added: Always, always, always make it a point to glance at some of the comments from readers on newspaper/magazine articles.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Feb 2010 00:22

Ambani sees soft power boosting Indian growth
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 5825341835

Geoff

Indian billionaire industrialist Mukesh Ambani has delivered the most bullish forecast yet on the outlook for the Indian economy, saying it has the potential to grow at "high double-digit rates" if it builds up its strengths in "soft skills".

India has not had a full year of double-digit growth in the six decades since gaining independence at the end of the 1940s, though it managed 11.3 per cent for one three-month period in 2003-04 and two quarters of 10.2 to 10.3 per cent in 2006-07.“It’s all about soft power in the new world,” Ambani told a gathering of Indian and other students during a panel discussion at the London School of Economics last week.Soft skills generally refer to interpersonal attributes such as leadership, communication, empathy and integrity, and at a global level refer to a country’s influence through its culture, creativity and knowledge base.From the 1950s to the start of the 1980s, India averaged GDP growth of about 3.5 per cent a year, before picking up to around 5.5 to 6.0 per cent for the following two decades. Since full-scale economic liberalization began in 1991, India has posted some strong years above 7 per cent, including three years above 9 percent before the global financial crisis struck in 2008. Its best was 9.6 per cent for the financial year that ended March 2007.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 02 Feb 2010 12:16

Fitch may downgrade India's sovereign rating

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 02 Feb 2010 18:11

India, New Zealand begin talks for free trade agreement

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 02 Feb 2010 21:34

McKinsey's report - Debt and De-leveraging

Has couple of sentences on Indian Government debt.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 03 Feb 2010 08:23

New UK-India group to hasten road building in India: http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... ia/384480/

UK-stan is bankrupt, why do they need to be involved in road-building in India?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 Feb 2010 23:55

The current low-publiciity approach towards disinvestment appears to be the best - achieving desired results without all the political issues involved in the word 'privatisation':
In India: Don't say the P-word

India is in the midst of what will be its biggest campaign to sell off state owned assets since 1991. Just don't think of this as privatization.

The latest sale, a $1.8 billion block of National Thermal Power Corp. shares owned by the Indian government, kicked off Wednesday. For that sum, New Delhi will give up 5% of the company, retaining control of nearly 85%.

Last year New Delhi raised $1.8 billion via two stock offerings, and there's more to come. Three other offerings, worth some $6.5 billion, are expected by the end of March, and the finance ministry has identified nearly 60 companies in which the government will divest small holdings over the next three years.

The moves are certainly welcome in a country looking to fund a yawning fiscal deficit. New Delhi's timing also looks fortuitous: Indian stocks are approaching historic highs. On Wednesday, investors snapped up half the NTPC offering within an hour of the subscription opening up. State-run companies might be stodgy, but they're also stable, which appeals to foreign investors dipping into India.

Still, the small stakes up for grabs -- 5% or 10% of the companies in question -- make this a fund-raising exercise rather than a meaningful shift toward less state control. Given India's political scene, it's the best anyone can expect.

Past efforts toward privatization have become mired in political feuding, largely thanks to opposition from powerful labor unions and left-leaning parties. Even successful moves, like a 51% stake sale in Bharat Aluminium Co. in 2001, met stiff resistance in Parliament before passing. Along the route, many ambitious plans--like one to divest the government's holding in national carrier Air India--were lost entirely. Apart from some scattered deals, the past 18 years have largely been devoid of any notable sales by the government.

Investors are eager for the potential to buy some of India's biggest companies, which are bolstered by their state backing and conservative operations. For the same reason, offloading a big chunk of these family jewels is a hard sell in Parliament.

The P-word's never been popular there. That isn't likely to change soon.

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 04 Feb 2010 09:49

Dr. Vijay Kelkar`s address at the 26th Sir Purshotamdas Thakurdas Memorial LectureTopic: ‘On Strategies for Disinvestment and Privatisation’
Worth a read!

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 04 Feb 2010 22:23

After destroying the public sector thru nepotism and institutionalized corruption the govt casts its eye towards the yet untouched private sector. In the name of vaguely defined "equal opportunity" license raj v2.0 is being imposed. Businesses close to the govt will use the law to drag their competitors thru endless court cases and ultimately ruin them.
Equal Opportunities Commission is on its way: Khurshid

New Delhi, Feb 4 (IANS) The Equal Opportunities Commission that will deal with discrimination on the basis of religion, caste, gender and language, is on way to becoming a reality, Minister for Corporate Affairs and Minority Affairs Salman Khurshid said.

'Equal Opportunity Commission is on way soon. We are negotiating with different departments,' Khurshid said at a seminar organized by Indo-Arab Economic Cooperation Forum and Institute of Objective Studies Thursday.

The commission will be empowered to deal with discrimination on the basis of religion, caste, gender and language.

'It will be the most revolutionary step and will go beyond the regime of reservations. It will have the widest footprint,' he said.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 Feb 2010 22:36

Suraj wrote:The current low-publiciity approach towards disinvestment appears to be the best - achieving desired results without all the political issues involved in the word 'privatisation':

That is "best" from one perspective onlee

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 05 Feb 2010 01:05

Offtopic discussion has been moved to the psyops thread.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 05 Feb 2010 03:14

Recovery takes hold in realty sector

The 14 companies that are part of the realty index of the Bombay Stock Exchange saw an average increase of 7.21 per cent in their net profit during the October-December quarter, compared to the same quarter a year earlier. In contrast, these companies saw a 71 per cent dip in net profit in the December quarter of 2008.

The worry for these companies, however, is the declining operating profit margin. Real estate companies witnessed a decline of up to 42 per cent in these margins during the quarter, mainly due to a shift towards middle-income housing and adjustment for cost increases, analysts say.

To beat the slowdown in the property market, companies such as DLF, Unitech and HDIL, among others, shifted their focus from premium housing and commercial projects —which carry margins of over 50 per cent — to mid-income housing, where the margins are 20-30 per cent.

Consumer goods cos report December growth

Results of fast moving consumer goods (FCMG) companies declared so far reveal that most have managed to sustain growth in the third (October-December 2009) quarter, beating street expectations. Average growth in net sales was 14 per cent, while net profit grew 24 per cent during the period, according to analysts.

The accent was clearly on volume growth, which surged 15-18 per cent, despite lower consumer offtake. Consumers were mainly downtrading (settling for lower-priced products), especially in categories such as soaps, detergents, tea and edible oil, in the wake of spiralling food prices which ate into monthly household expenditure.

Companies basically resorted to price cuts and value packs to arrest downtrading, says Shirish Pardesi, senior analyst at Mumbai-based brokerage Anand Rathi. This was especially true of those whose basket of inputs did not comprise agri-commodities (sugar, wheat, milk, etc). On a year-on-year basis, prices of inputs like edible oil, palm oil and crude fell by 25-30 per cent. "It was easier, therefore, for these companies to take price cuts," he explains.

Interest rates may rise in July: ICICI's Kochhar

The country’s largest private sector lender, ICICI Bank, does not see immediate pressure on interest rates, but expects them to rise from the second quarter (July-September) of next financial year due to increase in demand for credit.

ICICI Bank CEO and MD Chanda Kochhar said interest rates are not driven so much by policy announcements of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), but demand and supply of credit and level of liquidity.

“Interest rates are driven not just by policy announcements, but more by demand and supply of credit and liquidity, currently since there is enough liquidity, my view is there will not be any immediate pressure on interest rates,” she added.

wig · Post by **wig** » 05 Feb 2010 08:17

it is a truism that the Govt needs to be a strong regulator. however the Govt regulates through the medium of various legislative enactments and autonomous bodies. On top of these autonomous bodies you have appellate tribunals and then the high courts and the supreme court.
but then again inspite of all the checks and balances the system gets subverted routinely. It is opined by many in the know of things that futures trading in commodities is behind the run away price rise of food stuffs.
the Govt now appears powerless to do anything. the farmer still is not benefitting from the price rise.
similarly in the case of shares of companies in stock markets even now there are scams. SEBI for some reason or the other manages to not regulate the markets. when it penalises operators they can approach the SAT (Securities Appellate Tribunal) for redressal and there the record of sebi is mixed. whilst one factor is the legal drafting is lax.
but then we must keep in mind that the worlds leading markets (financial) London, New York, also have all sorts of supervisory failures. they generally end up mentioning greed or traders.
if so what is the job of the regulators and why do they end up bolting the stables after the horses have bolted metaphorically at least.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 06 Feb 2010 01:10

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... k/84634/on

India to beat China to become fastest growing economy: Montek

Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia today expressed confidence that in the years to come India could emerge as "We have accelerated ... Not reached the full peak of our growth potential which could easily be 9 to 10 per cent. So, if India accelerates to say 10 per cent and China begins to decelerates you could have a situation where India grows faster than China," he told PTI at the conclusion of the five-day World Economic Forum meeting here.India has been growing by over nine per cent till the global economic crisis hit the economy and pulled down the country's growth rate to 6.7 per cent during 2008-09.During the current fiscal, the economy is expected to expand by over 7.75 per cent, as indicated by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in his mid-year review of the economy, which was tabled in Parliament in December

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 06 Feb 2010 01:19

Maby be indirectly connected to the previous points.

Is India poor, who says? Ask Swiss banks
http://www.merinews.com/article/is-indi ... 7213.shtml

Is there a possibility of getting all the black money from Swiss banks and turn them into investment into India? May be Indian government needs to threaten at two level one at the level of politicians and other rich officials to bring the money and invest here and one may allow one 'free go' at this for a month or something through the government proper channels and banks. On the other hand similar to German government get the secret CD (after they get it) and publish it in Public about all our folks who holds their money in the swiss bank. Or even threaten the Swiss bank with no dealing business in India for all their illegal practices then things come out easily. I also think that Information act should be applied on their branches here.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 06 Feb 2010 13:37

Black money plea before SC
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Black ... -SC/575115

Papers say data theft highlights Swiss weakness
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/97157 ... kness.html

Why Germany Is Paying Ransom for Stolen Data
http://www.time.com/time/business/artic ... topstories

UPDATE 1-German finmin says Swiss bank secrecy must go-paper
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE61426820100205

India should buy the secret details about Indians from this CD!!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 06 Feb 2010 19:17

In 2008-09, India's debt to gdp ratio was 78% (a high number). In 2008, Y.V.Reddy said thought it was vulnerability, there was no threat to the financial stability.

One can attribute the following 4 reasons for the increase in defecit:
1. Spending measures prior to global crisis
2. Soaring subsidy bill
3. Stimulus package in response to crisis
4. Cyclical downturn in tax revenue.

Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp1007.pdf

A good read: http://gulzar05.blogspot.com/2010/01/is ... reign.html. It gives some reasons why the debt issue might not be that bad.

Suraj, et al economic gurus: What is your take about India's debt?

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 07 Feb 2010 03:55

joshvajohn wrote:Maby be indirectly connected to the previous points.

Is India poor, who says? Ask Swiss banks
http://www.merinews.com/article/is-indi ... 7213.shtml

Is there a possibility of getting all the black money from Swiss banks and turn them into investment into India? May be Indian government needs to threaten at two level one at the level of politicians and other rich officials to bring the money and invest here and one may allow one 'free go' at this for a month or something through the government proper channels and banks. On the other hand similar to German government get the secret CD (after they get it) and publish it in Public about all our folks who holds their money in the swiss bank. Or even threaten the Swiss bank with no dealing business in India for all their illegal practices then things come out easily. I also think that Information act should be applied on their branches here.

I am not sure if this story is true. Google the said report and there is no such information within!

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 07 Feb 2010 04:40

Rs 70 lakh cr Indian money in Swiss banks, other havens’
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/200 ... 000100.htm

Black money: Swiss banks want evidence, India prepares cases
http://www.hindustantimes.com/News/newd ... 46862.aspx

Swiss banks ready to help India trace black money
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/swiss-banks- ... 3530-7.htm

We are talking about those who live in India and those who rule as politicians in India and those who are in powerful government positions in India, not those Indians who have gone as International investors who too have money there. But holding the black and blood money of Indians is illegal and without announcing it the whole of Swiss bank practices should be announced illegal. Their connections even with terrorism should be monitored by all the international governments - particularly Indian government - at times the Swiss does without realising it!! in the name of protecting bank secret practices.

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Feb 2010 10:21

Lisa wrote:I am not sure if this story is true. Google the said report and there is no such information within!

Make friends with Madhu Koda. And even if he gives you 0.4% of money he has stashed somewhere in Indian Rupees, you will be equivalent to a millionair in US Dollars term. Now imagine what one can do with 96.6% of his money which is stashed abroad! And that is only one individual we are talking about, from a small state.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Feb 2010 10:23

Any comments on the PM's address to CMs' conf on the price rise issue/

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 07 Feb 2010 12:43

joshvajohn wrote:Rs 70 lakh cr Indian money in Swiss banks, other havens’
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/200 ... 000100.htm

Black money: Swiss banks want evidence, India prepares cases
http://www.hindustantimes.com/News/newd ... 46862.aspx

Swiss banks ready to help India trace black money
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/swiss-banks- ... 3530-7.htm

We are talking about those who live in India and those who rule as politicians in India and those who are in powerful government positions in India, not those Indians who have gone as International investors who too have money there. But holding the black and blood money of Indians is illegal and without announcing it the whole of Swiss bank practices should be announced illegal. Their connections even with terrorism should be monitored by all the international governments - particularly Indian government - at times the Swiss does without realising it!! in the name of protecting bank secret practices.

You are missing the point. Here's the report as published by the Swiss
Banking Association. Kindly point out the relevant section that has a value
attached to Indian Funds. I cannot seem to find it.

http://www.swissbanking.org/en/d_jb_06-07.pdf

Thank you

Abhijeet · Post by **Abhijeet** » 07 Feb 2010 13:01

There is certainly a deterrent value in retrieving black money deposited abroad, in the sense that it will make people think twice about doing it in the future. However, to think that the money will have anything more than a negligible effect on India's overall economic development is optimistic, to put it mildly. Even the most exaggerated estimates of wealth stored in Swiss banks is a small fraction of India's GDP - the wealth generated by the country in one year. Bringing it back to India will not move the needle much, if at all, in terms of the country's overall wealth.

India will develop - and is developing - as its institutions, human development and overall wealth generating capacity increases. No one-time shot of money is going to turn it into a rich country overnight.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 07 Feb 2010 13:20

Abhijeet wrote:There is certainly a deterrent value in retrieving black money deposited abroad, in the sense that it will make people think twice about doing it in the future. However, to think that the money will have anything more than a negligible effect on India's overall economic development is optimistic, to put it mildly. Even the most exaggerated estimates of wealth stored in Swiss banks is a small fraction of India's GDP - the wealth generated by the country in one year. Bringing it back to India will not move the needle much, if at all, in terms of the country's overall wealth.

India will develop - and is developing - as its institutions, human development and overall wealth generating capacity increases. No one-time shot of money is going to turn it into a rich country overnight.

Agreed. Furthermore, I agree that fund are illegally stashed abroad but the
values being published are very wide of the mark. As an example in the
Principality of Liechtenstein, the UK authorities reckon that some £1
billion may be repatriated after an agreement implying not in excess of
some 2-3 billion in the accounts in total for an economy that has been more
affluent than India's for a large part of the last century.

Claims of some 1,500+ Billion in Indian funds is very wide of the mark in my
opinion.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 07 Feb 2010 23:35

Pranab-Modi spar has PM intervening

There was a confrontation about the pending implementation of the government's manifesto promise of providing food at Rs. 3 per kg.

What would be the additional subsidy burden of this policy? It seems the government is not willing to go further into debt to fulfill this promise.