Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Peregrine
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Sep 2018 01:09

Neshant wrote:China has already factored in Pakistan's "debt forgiveness" ahead of time by jacking up the price of OBOR infrastructure 3 fold when presenting Pakistan the bill.

Watch soon how China "forgives" some of Pakistan's OBOR debt - which was a result of massive over-billing to begin with.

Whatever amount is forgiven however will be extracted in maintenance costs spanning decades.
This since all suppliers for OBOR related infrastructure are in China and the host country cannot fully upkeep OBOR infrastructure without China.

Only Chinese construction & supply firms have benefited from OBOR.

None of the routes are profitable now nor will ever be in the foreseeable future.

China already knew this prior to hyping OBOR as easy money to the host country to induce them into heavy debt.
That and the (fake) promise of moving tons of manufacturing jobs from China to the host country if they built OBOR infrastructure - which is turning out to be a total lie.

You can identify the dumb nations of the world by how quickly they fell for that line.
Neshant Ji :

I refer you to the following Article :

Pakistan's $100B deal with China: What does it amount to? - By Nadia Naviwala // 24 August 2017

1. What Pakistan owes for the next 30 years will be calculated in dollars frozen at the 2013 exchange rate of 97.10 rupees to $1. (The current exchange rate is 105 rupees to $1.) - Today 16-09-2018 the Rate is US$ 1 = Rs. 125!

2. Tom Miller, author of “China’s Asian Dream,” has said that Chinese officials privately admit that they expect to lose up to 80 percent of their investment in Pakistan.

3. In Addition : The Gwadar Port Disillusion - MEI XINYU

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Neshant
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Neshant » 17 Sep 2018 08:28

Thanks for the links Peregrine.

The way the guy puts it in the first article, Pakistan has no intention of paying OBOR debt.
If China thinks it can squeeze that money out of Pakistan, they are barking up the wrong tree.

He continues: “Yes, there’s a problem of returning the money and we might overextend ourselves. Is the U.S. government not over-extended? Isn’t everyone in debt? But what are our options? Even if we default, how many times has Argentina defaulted? It’s definitely not what we want, but it’s a part of the game. It’s a reality in business.”


It explains why China attempted to get IMF involved in making loans to Pakistan.
It was an attempt by China to get the IMF to do the dirty job of forcing Pakistan to tighten its belt to pay off China debts.
But US being chief financier of the IMF is having none of that.
It going to be up to China to get its money's worth from Pakistan - either by pouring in more money down that rat hole by moving manufacturing there or cutting their losses.

Another issue is that OBOR piggy backs on China's attempt to build a military naval base at Jiwani.
US is not going to finance China's military ambition even if OBOR could turn a profit.
And neither will it look kindly on other countries doing the same.

So the reality is Pakistan will not be paying off OBOR debt and China has knowingly or unknowingly made a multi-billion dollar "donation" to Pakistan.

If China demands ownership of the infrastructure in lieu of debt repayment, it effectively exposes OBOR as nothing more than a neo-colonial resource/land grab scheme. Not that Pakistan will even comply with that handover anyway.

Peregrine
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Sep 2018 14:24

Neshant wrote:Thanks for the links Peregrine.

The way the guy puts it in the first article, Pakistan has no intention of paying OBOR debt.
If China thinks it can squeeze that money out of Pakistan, they are barking up the wrong tree.

He continues: “Yes, there’s a problem of returning the money and we might overextend ourselves. Is the U.S. government not over-extended? Isn’t everyone in debt? But what are our options? Even if we default, how many times has Argentina defaulted? It’s definitely not what we want, but it’s a part of the game. It’s a reality in business.”


It explains why China attempted to get IMF involved in making loans to Pakistan.
It was an attempt by China to get the IMF to do the dirty job of forcing Pakistan to tighten its belt to pay off China debts.
But US being chief financier of the IMF is having none of that.
It going to be up to China to get its money's worth from Pakistan - either by pouring in more money down that rat hole by moving manufacturing there or cutting their losses.

Another issue is that OBOR piggy backs on China's attempt to build a military naval base at Jiwani.
US is not going to finance China's military ambition even if OBOR could turn a profit.
And neither will it look kindly on other countries doing the same.

So the reality is Pakistan will not be paying off OBOR debt and China has knowingly or unknowingly made a multi-billion dollar "donation" to Pakistan.

If China demands ownership of the infrastructure in lieu of debt repayment, it effectively exposes OBOR as nothing more than a neo-colonial resource/land grab scheme. Not that Pakistan will even comply with that handover anyway.
Neshant Ji :

1. The Power Plants are Old Coal Fired Plants which WERE MOTHBALLED by the Chinese to reduce Atmospheric Pollution. So to the Chinese the Power plants are already "Depreciated down to ZERO". This is the same type of Aid as the Bhilai Steel Plant! The Pakistan Steel Plant is a Xerox Copy of the Bhlai Plant. The Difference is that the Bhilai Plant like the Pakistan Steel Plant had a capacity of 1.1 Million Tonnes. Bhilai is precently producing Five Million Tonnes of Steel and is being expanded to 7.5 Million Tonnes. Pak SDteel is closed for about Four Years!

2. Gwadar Port is leased to the Chinese for a few Decades.

3. I have tried but failed to find the number of British of European Origins in India and left India in 1947. I believe the number is between 150,000 to 200,000 to Rule Undivided India, Burma, Ceylon and possibly the control of Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait etc. The British Controlled Persian Gulf Countries used INDIAN CURRENCY!

4. Please note that there will be at least 500,000 Chinese in Terroristan - could-might-possibly be more. As such Terroristan will become Pakziang!

5. Thus Terroristan might not pay but Pakziang will become Part of China.

6. Sorry. The US Americans are Naive. The Terroristanis have "Something" on the USA! In the end there are good chances the USA will try to bailout Terrorististan. However, IMHO China will try its best to having "Overall Control" most probably as "Pakziang"

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souravB
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby souravB » 17 Sep 2018 15:02

Peregrine wrote:
6. Sorry. The US Americans are Naive. The Terroristanis have "Something" on the USA! In the end there are good chances the USA will try to bailout Terrorististan. However, IMHO China will try its best to having "Overall Control" most probably as "Pakziang"

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uhh sorry but No. I'd accept anything but Naive for the Americans. In risk of stating the obvious but the Pakis are the brainchild of Britshit+American intelligence. The Britshits though having a highly capable proxy warfare network couldn't have done it without the American help &/or money.
Now the reasons for this will go into the territory of CT so I will refrain from saying those, but that word, I cannot disagree with it more.
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chetak
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby chetak » 19 Sep 2018 15:47

souravB wrote:
Peregrine wrote:
6. Sorry. The US Americans are Naive. The Terroristanis have "Something" on the USA! In the end there are good chances the USA will try to bailout Terrorististan. However, IMHO China will try its best to having "Overall Control" most probably as "Pakziang"

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uhh sorry but No. I'd accept anything but Naive for the Americans. In risk of stating the obvious but the Pakis are the brainchild of Britshit+American intelligence. The Britshits though having a highly capable proxy warfare network couldn't have done it without the American help &/or money.
Now the reasons for this will go into the territory of CT so I will refrain from saying those, but that word, I cannot disagree with it more.
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while the rolers and the ropers are globally in conflict or at best, something like a polite armed truce after (US UK NATO) holding the gulf countries in an unbreakable choke hold, just look at the active collaboration between the two centuries old sworn enemies when it comes to operating in India in a joint BIF mode.

The US + brit deep states are still sticking steadfastly to their post WWII agenda.

And not to mention that they have also suborned and even co-opted a good part of the Indian deep state as well.

Without supporting us like they have done the pakis all these decades, they have managed to change the social demographics of the entire north east, a feat that they have not managed to do in pakiland or they thought it unwise to do there.

The amerikis are anything but naive and they have horses for courses like when they softened up the then GoI with the nuke deal and every ameriki president since bush has seriously and consistently pushed the same singular agenda with India. Give the minimum and extract the maximum.

Looking at India's geography, two ocean access and proximity to strategic resources, both the brits and the amrekis, post Indian independence, wanted bases in India.

The US has finally managed that goal and got themselves access to safe harbours, airports and reliable repair/refuelling facilities and all this in a country where the general populace is friendly toward them, unlike many other parts of the world, especially pakiland.


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