Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Anujan » 01 Jul 2019 10:32

^^^
The mill closure might just be a negotiating tactic.

The new budget from the guvrmand is removing some subsidies and tax benefits about which all the industrialists are up in arms. The guvrmand's hands are tied because of IMF GUBO. The industrialists are threatening the guvrmand.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby shravan » 01 Jul 2019 10:42

High taxes, cost of production force breeders to cull chicks
https://www.dawn.com/news/1491277

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby dhyana » 01 Jul 2019 10:48

Link resurrected...

APTMA announces closure of 200 mills from tomorrow, as buyers cancel export orders (Terroristan Def Forums)

KARACHI: The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) has announced closure of 200 of its processing mills from Monday, July 1, as international buyers rejected export deliveries of the mills due to price increase.

APTMA in a press statement said a meeting of around 200 mills was held in Karachi on Saturday, where members said that their buyers had refused to pay the new prices for their orders. Thus, the millers had decided to shut down their operations from the first day of the new fiscal year.

Earlier, APTMA Sindh-Balochistan Region Chairman Zahid Mazhar had said that an increase in gas tariff by 31 percent was the last nail in the coffin of the general industry and the textile industry in particular.

He said the textile sector was already facing unbearable costs of manufacturing, which were very high as compared to the regional competitors.

Due to the high cost of doing business, inadequate supply of raw material, drastic increase in interest rate, and liquidity constraints due to the delay in refunds of sales tax, almost 140 textile mills had already closed their operations.

That he said resulted in about a million workers losing their jobs. “Around 75 to 80 mills are on the verge of closure, which will add to the unemployment figures by another 0.5 million workers employed in the textile industry,” he added.

Speaking about the removal of the zero-rating facility for the five exporting industries, Mazhar said the textile sector had not yet come out of the shock of the government’s adverse decision to withdraw the zero-rated facility.

In Federal Budget 2019-20, the government decided to withdraw the statutory regulatory order 1125(I)/2011, which allowed zer-rated sales tax on inputs and products for the five major export-oriented sectors – textile, leather, carpets, sports goods, and surgical instruments.

He said that as if that was not enough, the government was going to hit the industry with another blow in the shape of increased gas tariff.

He said the gas tariff for industry in Bangladesh was $3.0/MMBTU, which was more than 50 percent cheaper than Pakistan.

He further said that due to the closure of about 140 mills, and the mills operating under capacity, Pakistan’s textile exports were suffering an opportunity loss of more than $4.0 billion per annum.

APTMA Sindh-Balochistan Region chairman demanded the government to save the export-oriented textile industry and Pakistan from complete disaster by not increasing the gas prices.

He also asked the government to instruct the gas utility companies to meet their revenue requirements by strictly following the UFG benchmark in accordance with the international best practices, and reducing other expenses with better management.

Last week, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet approved the decision to increase the gas tariff by 31 percent for the general industry, power plants, cement, and fertiliser, etc.

The new tariff would be enforced from today, as was agreed with the IMF. Consumers of gas would be paying up an additional Rs170 billion, including the increased in GST

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 01 Jul 2019 13:30

The Pakistani rupee began June 19 at 146 levels to the Dollar and Has reached 163 RUpee levels, wishing the Pakistani Rupee many such months.

With the INR:PKR ratio, on 1 Oct 18 its 1:1.65 now 1 July 19 its 1:2.36. Nice!!

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 01 Jul 2019 14:05

UB TERA KYAA HOGA TERRORISTANIA?

IMF programme may do little to reduce trade deficit - HUSSAIN H ZAIDI
ISLAMABAD: Following a staff-level agreement and subject to approval of its board of directors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will provide $6 billion in credit to Pakistan under a 39-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
Opinion is divided over whether Pakistan should have gone back to the fund and whether the agreement with the multilateral donor will compound or mitigate the country’s macroeconomic problems. Pakistan has been seeking assistance from the IMF fairly regularly. In recent years, every elected government began its tenure by facing the question whether to seek the IMF assistance.
The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) government in 2008 and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government in 2013 didn’t take much time in answering the question in the affirmative and each concluded a credit agreement with the fund within a few months of coming to power.
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government flip-flopped on the question for months before deciding to draw the IMF’s capital.
Asad Umar discloses IMF demands for loan package
Thus, the upcoming IMF programme is not likely to provide a credible solution to Pakistan’s economic problems. This is also confirmed by past such programmes. Economic managers are also aware of this. However, as always, the government’s priority is to ward off the immediate crisis – as in the long run we all will be dead – for which the IMF credit appears to be the only option. It is like administering a pain killer to a patient, who is finding it extremely difficult to endure the excruciating pain.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 02 Jul 2019 11:35

Pakistan ruppee jumps to 156 against USD, a 3% appreciation. IMF Bailout impact? Very disappointing. Phew somethign wrong with Bing search engine, google reports 160.79 what a relief.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 02 Jul 2019 12:28

Aditya_V wrote:Pakistan ruppee jumps to 156 against USD, a 3% appreciation. IMF Bailout impact? Very disappointing. Phew somethign wrong with Bing search engine, google reports 160.79 what a relief.


PKR rates are actually hard to find, for a country of that size.

Harami web is usually the most accurate/up to date: https://hamariweb.com/finance/forex/

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 02 Jul 2019 14:37

yensoy wrote:
PKR rates are actually hard to find, for a country of that size.

Harami web is usually the most accurate/up to date: https://hamariweb.com/finance/forex/


I am absolutely sure you typed Hamari as Harami by mistake. Purely by mistake especially when talking about Pakis.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Jul 2019 14:43

FUN & GAMES : Terroristan is now going for the Next Round of ABEGGING for Additional IMF – WB – CHINA, etc. & etc. Loans :rotfl:
Tax-to-GDP ratio sinks to lowest in five years at 9.9% - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The centre has sought the help of provinces for bringing immoveable property owners into the tax net as the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) tax-to-GDP ratio has sunk to just 9.9% – the lowest in five years.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Jul 2019 17:43

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,816.48 - Pt. Change : +129.98 - % Change : +0.33

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,53,03,575.72 - $ 1 / I N R : 69.1750

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,212.30 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 34,307.11 – Change : 310.78 – Change : 0.91%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,920,437,623,735 - $ 1 / Rs T 163.2418

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.39 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 52.19 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Katare » 03 Jul 2019 03:16

kit wrote:
Katare wrote:
That would be the end of Pakistan!



not really, thats the whole idea. did greece go down the drain ? someone will be ready to bail them out at the right price, the saga will go on.


Greece never defaulted, you asked what if Pakistan defaults. Just the possibility of default crushed Greece even with EU support.

No bussiness of any-kind is done with defaulters/bankrupt entities

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 03 Jul 2019 04:03

Check this:

Experts in Porkistan says that Pakistan should lobby the world over and explain that since its economy itself is 70% gray or black it is not possible for it to satisfy the FATF conditions and the international body should accept that since gray economy exists the world over :rotfl:
From 5:30 onwards.


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby CalvinH » 03 Jul 2019 05:51

Aditya_V wrote:Pakistan ruppee jumps to 156 against USD, a 3% appreciation. IMF Bailout impact? Very disappointing. Phew somethign wrong with Bing search engine, google reports 160.79 what a relief.

I think it improved by 5 Rs due to start of new FY for paki government. Most of the doles are effective with FY.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Jul 2019 14:07

Inflation surges to 5-year high, target missed - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government has missed its annual target of inflation that surged to a five-year high at 7.3% in the last fiscal year due to upward revision in electricity and gas prices and 32% depreciation of the rupee in one year.

Against the annual target of 6%, the average inflation in fiscal year 2018-19 surged to 7.34%, reported the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday. It was the highest average rate in the past five years. Previously in fiscal year 2013-14, the rate of inflation was 8.6%, the point from where it had started receding. The rate of inflation was more than double the annual economic growth of 3.3% recorded in the last fiscal year 2018-19 that ended on Sunday.

The government’s annual plan for the new fiscal year 2019-20 has cited that “upward adjustment in electricity and gas prices, input costs and impact of exchange rate movements” as the reasons behind missing the annual inflation target.
After coming to power, the PTI government has increased the prices of gas and electricity twice – first time in anticipation of an IMF programme and second time as part of the IMF’s prior action to qualify for a $6-billion loan package.

Inflation jumps to a five-year high of 9.41% in March

In 2018-19, the central bank let the rupee depreciate against the US dollar by 31.8% to Rs160.3, which brought imported inflation into the country. On June 28, 2018, which was the last working day of fiscal year 2017-18, the rupee-dollar parity was at Rs121.63 to a dollar.

Owing to the currency devaluation, the government had to increase the price of petrol by 25% in one year. Many shops and a hospital in Lahore have pegged prices of their goods and services to the dollar, which, if remains unchecked, will further erode the confidence of people in the local currency.

For the new fiscal year, the government has set the inflation target in the range of 11% to 13%, according to the Ministry of Finance.

However, on a month-on-month basis, the rate of inflation remained below expectations. In June, the pace of increase in prices was 8.9% – 0.2 percentage point lower than the preceding month. It was also one percentage point lower than market expectations. Core inflation – non-food and non-energy price index – remained unchanged at 7.2% in June, reported the PBS. The State Bank takes monetary policy decisions by keeping in view the year-on-year core inflation reading. It raised the key discount rate to 12.25% with effect from May 21.

The decision to increase the discount rate undermined the independence of the central bank that apparently took the step in the wake of an IMF condition.

After the last discount-rate hike, the central bank has cumulatively increased the interest rate by 5.75% since July last year aimed at curtailing aggregate demand in the economy.

The core inflation-adjusted interest rate is now positive by 5%, which is providing windfall gains to the bankers who are minting money from the government as well as private-sector borrowers.

Inflation touches 56-month high in Feb

It has massively increased the debt servicing cost for the finance ministry. About 53% of the FBR’s tax collection will be spent on debt servicing. The IMF has long been pressing Pakistan to increase the interest rate to over 14% in order to curb inflation, which the fund believes will be in double digits due to currency devaluation and imposition of new taxes.

Due to the increase in the key policy rate, the government’s borrowing rates for the Pakistan Investment Bonds have also jumped. PBS data showed that on a year-on-year basis, gas prices increased 85.3%, petrol prices jumped nearly 25% and motor vehicles by 12.73% in June alone.

Transport group inflation increased 15% in June over a year ago, prices of perishable food items rose 11.8%, alcoholic beverages and tobacco 22%, housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel group 10% and health services 8.6%.
.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Jul 2019 19:21

Why Afghanistan is Pakistan’s principal enemy - Adam Garrie
It may seem counter-intuitive to claim that a perennially failed state with illogical borders, an ethno-demographic ticking time bomb for a population, and a traditionally ungovernable periphery is the primary enemy of a nuclear-armed and exponentially militarily superior neighbouring state. But in the case of the failed state of Afghanistan’s relationship with nuclear Pakistan, this is the reality.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Jul 2019 20:13

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,839.25 - Pt. Change : +22.77 - % Change : +0.06

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,53,16,985.57 - $ 1 / 69.0250

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,219.05 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 34,896.55 – Change : 589.44 - % Change : 1.69%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 7,015,978,969,107 - $ 1 / Tr Rs 159.00

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 44.13 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.28 : : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Jul 2019 20:33

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Postby Peregrine » 03 Jul 2019 22:46

IMF approves $6bn bailout package for Pakistan

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) executive board has approved a three-year, $6 billion loan "to support Pakistan’s economic plan, which aims to return sustainable growth to the country’s economy and improve the standards of living," spokesperson Gerry Rice tweeted on Wednesday evening.

According to AFP, the IMF board has released $1bn to Pakistan immediately. The fund will review Pakistan's performance quarterly over 39 months, phasing release of the additional aid over time.

This is Pakistan's 13th IMF program.

Islamabad will receive $2bn annually under an extended fund facility (EFF). According to the IMF, "The EFF provides assistance in support of comprehensive programs that include policies of the scope and character required to correct structural imbalances over an extended period."

An IMF mission led by Ernesto Ramirez Rigo had visited Islamabad from April 29 to May 11 to discuss a bailout package.

Pakistani authorities and the IMF team had at the conclusion of the visit reached a staff level agreement over a 39-month EFF for about $6bn.

The agreement had been subject to approval by the IMF's executive board.

"The program aims to support the [Pakistani] authorities’ strategy for stronger and more balanced growth by reducing domestic and external imbalances, improving the business environment, strengthening institutions, increasing transparency, and protecting social spending," the IMF had said in a statement attributed to Rigo.

More to follow.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 04 Jul 2019 03:26

IMF money comes, dollar drops. Which means that Pakis get fewer rupees for the dollars that just came in. When it comes time to pay interest or principal, rupee will mysteriously drop, which means that Pakis pay a lot more rupees for interest for the fewer rupees that came in. Funny business in a thinly traded market, really.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Jul 2019 18:52

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,908.06 - Pt. Change : +68.81 - % Change : +0.17

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,53,58,075.53 - $ 1 / I N R 68.7050

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $) : 2,234.88 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 34,570.62 – Change : -325.93 - % Change : -0.94%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,960,879,163,867 - $ 1 / T R 158.3224

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 43.97 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.83 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby NRao » 04 Jul 2019 21:39


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 04 Jul 2019 23:16

X Posted on the Terrorstan Thread

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Jul 2019 16:42

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Pakistan will get $38 billion to meet financing needs: IMF - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will receive $38 billion in new foreign loans under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) umbrella to meet its mounting external financing needs, the global lender said on Thursday.

Most of these loans will be consumed in repaying the debt piled up by the previous as well as the current political dispensation.

“The approval (of the IMF programme) will unlock from Pakistan’s international partners around $38 billion over the programme period,” the IMF said in a statement.

The international financial institution also projected a 13% inflation rate at the end of current fiscal year — which means that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will increase the interest rate to over 15%.

The IMF has not clarified whether the $38 billion borrowings will be sufficient to meet all financing needs of the country during the three-year period.

IMF finally approves $6 billion package for Pakistan

Independent estimates have put the total financing requirements at $55 billion to $60 billion during this period. The amount of $38 billion is inclusive of the $6 billion IMF package.

Giving a break-up of the loans, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh on Thursday said $14 billion loans would be in the shape of a rollover of the previous loans.

“Pakistan will obtain $8.7 billion project loans, $4.2 billion in budgetary support and another $8 billion will be secured from commercial banks and foreign capital markets,” he said at a news conference at his office.

The macroeconomic table that the IMF released after the approval of the programme shows that by the end of this fiscal year, the public and publically guaranteed debt will peak to 80.5% of the GDP.

In absolute terms, the public and publically guaranteed debt will be nearly Rs36 trillion — a net addition of Rs11 trillion within two years of the current government.

At the end of 2017-18, the public and publically guaranteed debt was equal to 75.3% of the GDP, according to the IMF statement.

“The debt-to-GDP ratio is increasing because of the repayment of old loans, Minister of State for Revenue Hammad Azhar, who was accompanying the finance adviser, said in response to a question.

Shaikh said during the last fiscal year, the government returned $9.5 billion in loans while debt servicing in the ongoing fiscal had been estimated at $11.8 billion.

He added that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had inherited a debt of nearly Rs31 trillion and the economic managers had made several decisions to return these loans — one of which was approaching the IMF.

There is also a significant increase in the external public debt that is estimated to increase from 24.3% at the end of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government’s term to 32% of the GDP during first two years of the PTI government’s tenure.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is increasing at a time when the country’s debt-bearing capacity is weakening. In 2017-18, the external public and publically guaranteed debt was [b]equal to 209.4% of the total export receipts — a ratio that is projected to deteriorate further to 234% at the end of this fiscal year.

Shaikh said the IMF programme would help in attracting non-debt creating inflows.

He argued that by entering into an agreement with Pakistan, the IMF had sent a message to the world that the government would exhibit responsibility in controlling its expenditures and mobilise taxes from its wealthy classes.

“We will make difficult decisions and measures will be taken to protect the vulnerable segments of society,” the finance adviser added.

Shaikh noted that the IMF programme was “very important” and international financial institutions would be “satisfied to note that Pakistan has been given a show of support by an institution whose basic objective is to assist its member states at a time when they need help”.

Tax amnesty

Briefing the media about the outcome of the tax amnesty scheme, Shaikh said 137,000 people had registered for the tax amnesty scheme and paid nearly Rs70 billion in taxes.

The sum of Rs70 billion is inclusive of the Rs15 billion that will be paid in the ongoing fiscal year by the beneficiaries of the amnesty scheme.

“The beneficiaries of the tax amnesty scheme have whitened assets worth Rs3 trillion and 80% of them were from domestic sources,” Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Shabbar Zaidi, who was also present on the occasion, told the media.

Shaikh the number achieved in the amnesty scheme was the highest for any such endeavour in the country’s history and included over 100,000 people who were previously non-filers.

Amnesty scheme draws 100,000 new tax filers, $450m

“The primary objective of the scheme was to raise the number of future taxpayers and allow people to whiten their money,” he added.

“Through the tax amnesty scheme, the number of income tax return filers has jumped to 2.1 million.”

However, the real challenge for the government is to increase the tax collection to Rs5.5 trillion by end of this fiscal year.

The IMF said the adjustment under the programme would be supported by comprehensive efforts to drastically increase revenue mobilisation by 4% to 5% of the GDP at the federal and the provincial levels over the programme period.

The FBR chairman said to facilitate the business community, it had been decided to clear 60% of the imports through the green channel facility and income tax exemption certificates for imports would be promptly provided to industrialists. “These measures will boost business and help increase tax collection,” he added.

Comments : This is truly MIND BOGGLING! Can it be true?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby IndraD » 05 Jul 2019 17:32

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... 73fada4cc7
IMF Won't Stop China From Turning Pakistan Into The Next Sri Lanka

Pakistan’s external debt jumped to 105841 USD Million in the first quarter of 2019 from 99086 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2018.The country’s external debt averaged 53029.34 USD Million from 2002 until 2017, reaching an all-time high of 88891 USD million in the fourth quarter of 2017 and a record low of 33172 USD million in the third quarter of 2004.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves and foreign capital flows have been falling rapidly.

That’s why the country had to appeal to China and Saudi Arabia for loans to deal with the situation. But these funds haven’t been sufficient to ease Pakistan’s Current Account crisis so the country had to appeal to IMF for the $6 billion loan.

The trouble is that the CPEC project is far from over, and the costs of completing it keeps on rising.

And that makes it very likely that Pakistan will have to reschedule its debt several times before it’s over, and share the same fate with Sri Lanka -- swapping debt with equity, which in essence will hand CPEC to Beijing.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 05 Jul 2019 19:17

The porki analysts have been claiming that after IMF $6 Billion clearance, a host of other loans from ADB and World Bank will also be coming in. What is interesting is even after all the approvals that are likely to come in (depending on how well Immy does the Gubo with Trump next month) Shitistan will still be taking loans from Commercial Banks and will be also borrowing from the international capital markets. It will be worth watching the interest rates :twisted: at which these commercial loans will be achieved.

Immy has as predicted here managed to kick the can further down the road only to set himself or some other Army/ISI pasand to face even greater heat in the next 3-4 years.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 05 Jul 2019 19:21

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,513.39 - Pt. Change : -394.67 - % Change : -0.99

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,51,35,495.86 – $ 1 / I N R : 68.5950

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,206.82 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 34,190.02 – Change : -380.60 : Percent Change -1.11% / T R

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,910,242,500,826 - $ 1 / T R : 157.1902

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.59 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 51.82 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 08 Jul 2019 17:39

Rice exports stagnant as traders unable to meet SPS conditions - DR MUHAMMAD KHURSHID
ISLAMABAD: Agriculture serves as the backbone of Pakistan’s economy as it contributes 19.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), provides employment to 42.3% of the labour force and provide raw material for several value-added industrial goods.
Rice is a major export commodity of Pakistan, besides cotton, citrus, mango, dates, vegetables, potato and other raw and processed foodstuff. Rice export has been stagnant not because Pakistan’s paddy production has decreased but because the country has failed to gear up and increase its technical capacity in line with the SPS requirements.
Rice export could be enhanced immediately but the DPP is facing a host of institutional capacity issues, which can be managed through aggressive capacity development.
The DPP is working with the lowest professional strength and is struggling to hire permanent quarantine professionals through a lengthy recruitment process. Similarly, other issues like legal reforms, state-of-the-art laboratory tools and techniques, and information and communication technologies (ICT) including online registration for import and export are badly affecting the performance of this important organisation responsible for enhancing Pakistan’s exports.
Opportunity
Rice is a major export commodity not only in terms of quantity but also quality. Data of the past five years shows total exports of 16.34 million tons and in the just ended fiscal year 2018-19 exports were the highest at 4.89 million tons in 11 months, followed by 2015-16 when exports reached 4.54 million tons.
Pakistan’s rice export potential is much higher provided adequate facilities are given and SPS conditions are met.
Challenges

Traditionally, Pakistan’s rice export was meant for the Middle East and Africa, where most of the countries still have very low SPS requirements and thus most exports do not face any SPS-related problems. Therefore, Pakistan takes it for granted in rice export to other markets in Europe, America, Russia, China, Canada, Australia and Japan and faced hardships in meeting their SPS conditions.
Consequently, Pakistan lost the Mexico market due to infestation of the crop by Khapra beetle, also called cabinet beetle. The Rice Export Association of Pakistan (REAP) has identified four major issues in terms of SPS requirements.
First, farmers reuse the wheat gunny bags for transporting and storing rice, which are mostly infested with beetle and thus rice quality is also affected. Second, farmers tend to mix unripe or inferior quality rice with the superior quality paddy for maximising profit. Third, there is no effort on the part of provincial agriculture departments to educate and encourage farmers for the production and processing of quality rice for export. Fourth, there is a lack of rice processing units, technological support and awareness among farmers and exporters of promoting quality rice for export.
All these issues can be tackled through well-coordinated efforts by the stakeholders including national and provincial agricultural departments. There appear to be no serious effort so far by the stakeholders for improving the post-harvest processing and value addition to ensure export of quality rice as per SPS requirements.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 08 Jul 2019 18:25

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,720.57 - Pt. Change : -792.82 - % Change :-2.01%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,47,96,302.89 - $ 1 / I N R = 68.7950

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,150.78 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,742.68 – Change : -447.34 - % Change : -1.33%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,828,488,685,384 - $ 1 / T Rs. 157.7113

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 43.30 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.67 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 08 Jul 2019 18:36

Pakistan to get $1.65bn net receipts out of $6bn IMF package - Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will get net receipts of about $1.65 billion in four years from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the just concluded $6bn bailout as it delivers on a steep macroeconomic adjustment plan.
A senior government official told Dawn that beginning this year Pakistan will receive a total of $6bn in about three years ending 2021-22 from the IMF, while it has to repay about $4.355bn in four years ending 2022-23, showing net receipts of $1.65bn.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 09 Jul 2019 16:29

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Further to my Post of 05 Jul 2019 16:42 :

IMF assesses Pakistan’s financing need at $25.5b - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has assessed Pakistan’s gross financing requirement at $25.5 billion in this fiscal year on the back of mounting debt repayment whereas the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has indicated that it will provide $10 billion over a period of five years.

Against the need for $25.5 billion in fiscal year 2019-20, the IMF has estimated total inflows at nearly $30 billion, according to a staff-level report the global lender released on Monday. Additional borrowing of over $4 billion would be used to build the foreign currency reserves, showed the report.

The release of the IMF report coincided with the ADB’s announcement of $10 billion in indicative financing from 2020 to 2024. The Manila-based lender will give $2 billion per annum, which was lower than the average $2.5 billion annual assistance under the present Country Operations Business Plan.

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Pakistan has long been relying on external loans for financing the current account deficit and repaying the maturing debt as it has failed to enhance exports and attract other non-debt creating inflows.

The IMF noted in its report that the first year of the 39-month loan programme is [b]“fully financed with the expected support from multilateral development banks and bilateral creditors”[/b]. In this fiscal year, China will give $6.3 billion in loan, Saudi Arabia $6.2 billion, the UAE $1 billion, World Bank $1.3 billion, ADB $1.6 billion and Islamic Development Bank $1.1 billion, according to the IMF.

Pakistan will get $38 billion to meet financing needs: IMF

To support long-term debt sustainability, Pakistan has also received firm commitments from China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to maintain their exposure throughout the programme period and to adjust financing modalities to ensure that the new financing would be consistent with the programme debt sustainability objectives, said the IMF. These countries had given short-term loans that the IMF asked Pakistan to get them rolled over.

The IMF report stated that Pakistan would need $25.5 billion this year for current account deficit financing and repayment of public and private debt. The current account deficit financing has been estimated at $6.7 billion and another $18.2 billion will be needed for repaying old loans.

The $25.5 billion estimate is similar to the level reached in the last fiscal year. P[b]ublic external debt of $14.4 billion will mature this year while private sector debt maturity has been estimated at $3.7 billion. Pakistan will pay back $2.1 billion in short-term and $11.4 billion in long-term loans in this fiscal year.[/b]

However, the external inflows have been estimated at $29.9 billion including $2.3 billion of IMF lending. These inflows include $2 billion in foreign direct investment. Official disbursements have been projected at $19.9 billion.

The additional external inflows will be used to build foreign currency reserves, which have plunged below $6.8 billion. The IMF projected that the SBP’s gross reserves would jump to $11.1 billion by the end of current fiscal year.

Meanwhile, the ADB on Monday began consultations to formulate a new Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), which would guide the bank’s engagement in the country from 2020 to 2024, according to a statement issued by the ADB. The ADB has planned to support Pakistan with indicative lending of up to $10 billion for various development projects and programmes during the next five years, according to the statement.

The purpose of the ADB’s five-year CPS is to define priorities and to support Pakistan’s development goals. The new strategy will also complement efforts by other development partners. The ADB’s partnership strategy will be aligned with the government’s development vision and policies and is expected to introduce new approaches to development financing in urban services, energy security, transport, agriculture and water resources, education, trade and tourism, said ADB Country Director Xiaohong Yang.

IMF finally approves $6 billion package for Pakistan

She said the strategy would prioritise innovation, analytical support, public-private partnership and application of new technologies. The ADB plans to provide about $2.1 billion out of $3.4 billion funds to support Pakistan’s reform and development programmes during fiscal year 2019-20, she added.

The indicative $2.1 billion is $500 million higher than the IMF’s estimate. In addition to public sector investments, the ADB would continue to increase its private sector operations in Pakistan to stimulate growth and revitalise exports, said the regional lender.

The new CPS will also support the road map for Pakistan’s economic linkages with its neighbouring countries, particularly through the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) programme.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 09 Jul 2019 19:29

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,730.82 - Pt. Change : +10.25 - % Change : +0.03

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,48,07,634.76 - $ 1 / I N R : 68.6925

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,155.64

P S E

Current Index : 33,855.58 – Change : 112.90 - % Change : 0.33%

Market Capitalization of P S E Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,847,610,822,851 - $ 1 / T R : 157.7113

Market Capitalization of P S E Listed Co. (U S $.) : 43.42 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.65 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 10 Jul 2019 10:53

I keep on seeing Pakistani commentators in YouTube always commenting that the US dollar is going up. The fact is, it is the Pak rupee that is declining rapidly. The rate between the US dollar and other currencies have not changed in any significant way. The implication is that US dollar is up, we can not do anything about it, every country that is dealing with the US is affected by this, not just Pakistan. If you say Pak rupee is down against the dollar, then one can ask what are you doing to correct this situation?
Gautam

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 10 Jul 2019 15:29

Pakistan’s external debt estimated at $130b by FY23 - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that Pakistan’s external debt will peak to $130 billion within four years – a net addition of $34.6 billion or 36.3% under the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan.

As against $95.4-billion external debt at the end of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) term, the IMF has projected that the external debt may hit $130 billion by the end of fiscal year 2022-23, showed a staff-level report that the global lender released on Monday.

There will be a minimum net addition of $34.6 billion to the external debt despite repayment of $48 billion in five years during the tenure of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government. This means that the PTI government will borrow a whopping $83 billion in five years to service the old debt, finance the current account deficit and build foreign exchange reserves.

PM Imran has severely criticised a mushroom growth in the public debt during PML-N and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) tenures and set up a commission to investigate these borrowings. However, he is reluctant to bring his own government under the scope of the commission.

IMF assesses Pakistan’s financing need at $25.5b

The IMF report showed that Pakistan would pay back $37.4 billion during the IMF’s 39-month programme period (July 2019 to September 2022). The PTI government has already returned $9.5 billion worth of external debt in the last fiscal year 2018-19, said Federal Minister for Revenue Hammad Azhar last week.

These debt projections are on the assumption that Pakistan will fully implement structural reforms under the IMF programme. The global lender said in case the country remained unable to fully implement these reforms, the external debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) could hit 60% — double the ratio left behind by the PML-N government.

According to the IMF’s projections, the external debt, which was $95.4 billion or 30.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2017-18, touched $104.2 billion or 36.7% of GDP last fiscal year. The $104.2-billion external debt was equal to 345% of Pakistan’s total export receipts.

For the current fiscal year, the IMF has projected that the external debt will peak at $112.5 billion, which will be equal to 43.4% of GDP. In terms of export receipts, the external debt is projected at 346%. In this fiscal year, the PTI government will also return $14.9 billion in public external debt, which means it will borrow $23 billion during the year. In next fiscal year 2020-21, the external public debt is projected to grow to $119 billion, which will be equal to 43.5% of GDP and 334% of the country’s total export receipts.

In that fiscal year, Pakistan will also return $13.5 billion of public external debt. This will increase the annual external borrowings to $20 billion.

The IMF stated that under its 39-month programme, “external debt is projected to steadily decline after peaking in fiscal year 2020-21, returning to a more sustainable path”.

SBP receives $991.4 million first IMF tranche

The moderation in external debt was mainly driven by a narrower current account deficit, non-debt creating capital inflows and a recovery in economic growth, it added.

For fiscal year 2021-22, the IMF has projected the external debt at $124.6 billion, which will be equal to 42.2% of GDP and 325% of exports. The external public debt repayment in this year has been estimated at $7.6 billion, which brings the borrowing requirement down to $13.2 billion.

It seems that the IMF has assumed that Pakistan would shift its short-term borrowings to long-term debt instruments by 2021-22.

“The projected external debt path is subject to heightened risks,” warned the lender. “The external debt-to-GDP ratio would be adversely affected by shocks. While sensitive mostly to current account and exchange rate shocks, the external debt ratio would reach around 60% under a real depreciation shock scenario,” it added.

Coming towards the last year of the PTI government – fiscal year 2022-23, the IMF has shown the external debt at $130 billion — over 41% of GDP. The repayment of external public debt has been estimated at only $1.3 billion in 2022-23, which appears to be surprising given the total external debt size of $130 billion and external public debt of $90.2 billion by the last year of the PTI government.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 10 Jul 2019 15:34

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 10 Jul 2019 18:44

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,557.04 - Pt. Change : -173.78 - % Change : -0.45

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,47,05,018.00 - $ 1 / 68.7025

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,140.39 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,840.05 – Change : -15.53 - % Change : -0.05%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,844,664,548,677 - $ 1 / 157.9805

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $) :43.33 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.40 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 10 Jul 2019 19:45

Pakistan to further increase power tariff in Aug: IMF - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has committed to further increase electricity tariff from next month (August) and is also bound to fully implement the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) 27-point action plan in three months as part of the $6 billion programme conditions, reveals an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report.
The staff-level report further disclosed that against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government’s claim of imposing Rs516 billion taxes, the actual tax measures amounted to a record Rs733.5 billion, which undermined the credibility of the government in the eyes of the legislators and the public.
The report stated that since May 16, 2019 Pakistan had enforced “market-determined” exchange rate regime – a fact that the State Bank of Pakistan was shy to admit.
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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 11 Jul 2019 17:40

Average exchange rate likely to be Rs172.53 by June 2020
ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) underline assumptions suggest that the average exchange rate at the end of this fiscal year could be Rs172.53 to a dollar – a depreciation of over 27%, due to weak macroeconomic fundamentals, reveals a latest report of the global lender.
In its staff level report, the IMF has not explicitly stated the exchange rate of Rs172.53 to a dollar. But a backward working on the basis of current account deficit projections show that rupee would keep losing its value under the IMF programme and beyond it. The average exchange rate of Rs172.53 to a dollar by June 2020 means that the year-end rupee-dollar parity would be over Rs188 to a dollar, said an independent economist who wished to remain anonymous.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 11 Jul 2019 18:10

Porki Analysts have on various channels been saying that Pakistan should make it mandatory for China to shift a part of its export earning industries to the CPEC economic zone so Pakistan can earn $50 Billion yearly!!!
Some 2-3 years back i remember seeing some analysts saying that pakistan should ask China to park a part of its $3 Trillion plus reserves in Pakistan. :rotfl:
The Porki parasites simply want everything on platter to them and do not want to work even to save their ass.
Last edited by Vips on 11 Jul 2019 18:11, edited 1 time in total.

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 11 Jul 2019 18:11

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,823.11 - Pt. Change : +266.07 - % Change : +0.69

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs. Cr.) : 1,48,02,230.79 - $ 1 / I N R 68.5425

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,159.57 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,875.40 – Change : 35.35 : Percent Change : 0.1%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 6,839,333,764,212 - $ 1 / T R 157.9805

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 43.29 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.89 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby pankajs » 11 Jul 2019 18:55

Peregrine wrote:Pakistan to get $1.65bn net receipts out of $6bn IMF package - Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will get net receipts of about $1.65 billion in four years from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the just concluded $6bn bailout as it delivers on a steep macroeconomic adjustment plan.
A senior government official told Dawn that beginning this year Pakistan will receive a total of $6bn in about three years ending 2021-22 from the IMF, while it has to repay about $4.355bn in four years ending 2022-23, showing net receipts of $1.65bn.
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As expected most of the loan is for the roll-over of previous IMF loans ... Net $1.65 Billion spread over the 4-5 years.

It does give them some breathing space and does make international finance markets more willing to lend with IMFs backing. A win for the short-term that will only saddle them with additional burden for the longer-term.


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