Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

[Manish_P]

..
By 2040, Indian economy will be $20T. Bakistan will be 1% of Indian economy, even if it is somehow able to last that long.
..

Not very far away

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/aut ... 094186.cms

Pakistan’s automotive industry’s woes don’t seem to stop as the country recorded yet another sub-5,000 passenger vehicle sales in November, following a similar feat from the preceding month.

In November, Pakistan’s car industry sold a meager 4,875 units, down by a massive 68 percent as against the 15,432 units sold in the corresponding month last year. The data was taken from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA).

There are several reasons behind the downfall of the automotive industry in Pakistan such as the rising input costs, overall inflation, declining demand due to poor plunging economy, currency depreciation, and imposition of high taxes on the purchase of vehicles.

To put things into perspective, Indian carmakers sold more units in less than half of a day.

[A_Gupta]

"Pakistan’s current economic model is not working since it has fallen behind its peers, significant progress in poverty reduction has now started to reverse, and the benefits of growth have accrued to a narrow elite, observes World Bank Country Director Najy Benhassine."

Full set of reports (UNDP publication)
https://www.undp.org/pakistan/publicati ... nt-economy

From one of the essays there:

"So what has to change? In short -- everything"

More cool quotes:

"As Pakistan lurches fom one crisis to another, the ruling and controlling colonial structures remain talent-repellent".

"The huge aid and lending institutions pretend as if Pakistan is a modernized economy. They merely add burdens on to the 19th century colonial structure".

[Manish_P]

"Pakistan’s current economic model is not working since it has fallen behind its peers, significant progress in poverty reduction has now started to reverse, and the benefits of growth have accrued to a narrow elite, observes World Bank Country Director Najy Benhassine."
..

Huh what?

[A_Gupta]

The Friday Times, Dr Iqramul Haq, “ The Economy's 2024 Roadmap To Prosperity” - in the unlikely case you want to read this in full. His prescription includes:

Facilities to foreign investors including grant of long-term visas or nationality. Many Afghans and Iranians are keen to invest.

[A_Gupta]

dawn.com/news/1801778

Pakistan made a remarkable 92 per cent recovery to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, as the country experienced a 115 per cent surge in foreign tourist arrivals compared to the previous year, signaling a robust comeback post-Covid.

With the recovery reaching 115pc and projections of international receipts reaching $1.3 billion by the end of the year, Pakistan stands as a beacon in tourism resurgence, showcasing its potential on the global stage, Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation Managing Director Aftab Rana said.

“ Pakis­tan was the ‘best performing destination’ in terms of tourism during the first nine months of 2023, according to the ‘World Tourism Barometer’ published by the World Tourism Organisation of the United Nations.”

But UNWTO publicly available dashboard has no data for Pakistan. It has data for almost all other Asian countries. The “Barometer” requires a subscription.

[Brad Goodman]

I was speaking with a Pakistani car mechanic and the frustration at economic situation was pretty evident, He said if we can get some political stability we can least start growing the way Afghanistan is growing, They are now seriously competing with Afghans.

[A_Gupta]

Indian visits Lahore (Hindi and some Punjabi) and is shocked by the lack of development; its current state is like India's Punjab of 25 years ago.

https://youtu.be/SeBZP-OJPcI?si=w1SAwIuTEelC3k5f

[Manish_P]

Indian visits Lahore (Hindi and some Punjabi) and is shocked by the lack of development; its current state is like India's Punjab of 25 years ago.

https://youtu.be/SeBZP-OJPcI?si=w1SAwIuTEelC3k5f

More like 35-40 years ago, Gupta Ji. And regressing back further..

Travel blogger videos of Pakistan are available on YouTube. Even their so called urban areas (except certain enclaves occupied by the faujis and businessmen) are like the late 1980s India.

[vimal]

Eat Grass, Make Bum said the leader
What can go wrong.

[disha]

Eat Grass, Make Bum said the leader
What can go wrong.

Bum is cheeni maal. Does not work.

[chetak]

I was speaking with a Pakistani car mechanic and the frustration at economic situation was pretty evident, He said if we can get some political stability we can least start growing the way Afghanistan is growing, They are now seriously competing with Afghans.

Brad Goodman ji,

The afghans grow the poppy plant, papaver somniferum, which produces opium...........it is their national agro industry

that may well be what the paki actually meant

BTW, from times immemorial, political stability was never the afghan's strong suit (except perhaps, when it was under Hindu/buddhist rule)....

[VishnuS]

I was speaking with a Pakistani car mechanic and the frustration at economic situation was pretty evident, He said if we can get some political stability we can least start growing the way Afghanistan is growing, They are now seriously competing with Afghans.

Brad Goodman ji,

The afghans grow the poppy plant, papaver somniferum, which produces opium...........it is their national agro industry

that may well be what the paki actually meant

BTW, from times immemorial, political stability was never the afghan's strong suit (except perhaps, when it was under Hindu/buddhist rule)....

Bhai, that has changed!

Afghan had cut 95% of Poppy production!

Did we sway them too?

I don't know, but we are the biggest benefactors of that cut in production.

Afghan is seriously focusing on production of wheat, they're even building dams to divert water.

PS. I almost forgot about this... Poppy plants are the major fund providers for all the terrorist groups in the region. If Taliban can cut the poppy production then the ISKP and other Anti Taliban groups will starve due to lack of funds! This could also be a motive.

Anyways, whatever the motive is, it's good for us.

[chetak]

Brad Goodman ji,

The afghans grow the poppy plant, papaver somniferum, which produces opium...........it is their national agro industry

that may well be what the paki actually meant

BTW, from times immemorial, political stability was never the afghan's strong suit (except perhaps, when it was under Hindu/buddhist rule)....

Bhai, that has changed!

Afghan had cut 95% of Poppy production!

Did we sway them too?

I don't know, but we are the biggest benefactors of that cut in production.

Afghan is seriously focusing on production of wheat, they're even building dams to divert water.

PS. I almost forgot about this... Poppy plants are the major fund providers for all the terrorist groups in the region. If Taliban can cut the poppy production then the ISKP and other Anti Taliban groups will starve due to lack of funds! This could also be a motive.

Anyways, whatever the motive is, it's good for us.

Vishnu ji,

A great many important people in the afghani setup are sustained by the drug trade , in terms of being income dependent from the direct and indirect off shoots of the business. This situation just cannot be changed overnight, especially since the taliban themselves are major patrons, protectors, and also the willing purveyors of the drug trade

The paki ISI are the actual managers and also the middleman of this entire enterprise and this drug trade is a very major income stream for them. They will not be happy to see their income being downsized

noble ideas, especially among the jihadis, tend to have very short shelf lives.

moreover, their medieval outlook and savage social policies have reduced incoming aid to a mere trickle and that meagre aid alone is not enough to sustain these morons....

what will they live on, and who will fund them in the meanwhile.

one suspects that the pretense of reduction in the drug trade is a taqiya tactic designed to soften the barbaric image that they project to encourage more incoming aid from the gora sources

who is monitoring them and who is certifying the alleged truth of their policies

are these idiots culturally fit enough to assume any reasonable position in the society of modern nations

one would not be so eager to trust them at their word and foolishly respond with tangible goodwill.

let's just wait and see how things actually pan out.....

[VishnuS]

Vishnu ji,

A great many important people in the afghani setup are sustained by the drug trade , in terms of being income dependent from the direct and indirect off shoots of the business. This situation just cannot be changed overnight, especially since the taliban themselves are major patrons, protectors, and also the willing purveyors of the drug trade

The paki ISI are the actual managers and also the middleman of this entire enterprise and this drug trade is a very major income stream for them. They will not be happy to see their income being downsized

noble ideas, especially among the jihadis, tend to have very short shelf lives.

moreover, their medieval outlook and savage social policies have reduced incoming aid to a mere trickle and that meagre aid alone is not enough to sustain these morons....

what will they live on, and who will fund them in the meanwhile.

one suspects that the pretense of reduction in the drug trade is a taqiya tactic designed to soften the barbaric image that they project to encourage more incoming aid from the gora sources

who is monitoring them and who is certifying the alleged truth of their policies

are these idiots culturally fit enough to assume any reasonable position in the society of modern nations

one would not be so eager to trust them at their word and foolishly respond with tangible goodwill.

let's just wait and see how things actually pan out.....

Bhai, what you said is logical and actually makes sense. But the 95% cut is the reality. This year they had cut Poppy production. Many news outlets have confirmed it after statement released by Talibans. Now, is this cut temporary or permanent is a different story

Let's wait for next year and if Poppy comes back then you're correct and if it doesn't then it's good for us.

And Bhai, please don't use ji. I am still young and an amateur when it comes to foreign policy, international relations and defence.

[SRajesh]

^^https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... i=89978449
This could be reason.
They are turning out to be the fastest growing Meth producer!!

[Manish_P]

...
This could be reason.
They are turning out to be the fastest growing Meth producer!!

Easier to manufacture (in labs) than going through all the trouble to cultivate poppy. Minimal to zero dependency on vagaries of weather.

Use the land to cultivate food for the awaam, build labs to make meth and earn foreign exchange for the warlords and the jernails.

[Manish_P]

Calling on respected senior Maulaners to please send their suggestions...

Yawn - SBP invites designs for new currency notes

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has invited the general public to submit designs for new currency notes as it initiates the process of replacing the existing banknotes.

The announcement came a day after the SBP governor told a meeting of analysts about the decision to introduce new currency notes with advanced security features and to address the issue of counterfeit notes.

The designers with the first, second and third designs of each denomination will be given prizes of Rs 1 million, Rs 500,000, and Rs 300,000, respectively.

What will be the USD to PKR rate at that time? 1 USD = 786 PKR ?

[SRajesh]

^^
I wonder if the denomination of the new notes be equivalent to the prize announced!!
All will be given one note each

[Lisa]

I won!!

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/394598682068 ... Swy1JkoBVa

[saip]

Considering that they will never get out of the habit of begging, I suggest the notes should replace Jinnah portrait with a Begging Bowl.

[A_Gupta]

Dr. Qamar Cheema believes that the informal/undocumented economy in Pakistan has a size of USD $1 Trillion, even though the formal/documented economy is only USD $300 billion.

(source: https://www.youtube.com/live/XVFdx6tqzL ... bsRaZazVl7 )

[sanjaykumar]

I believe I have been awarded two Nobels but my record only shows a few publications.

[sanman]

More IMF Bailouts for Pakistan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59bK5UbIZqU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPc7SuSoejU

[rajkumar]

Untold Realities behind Pakistan's Economic Decline. @raftartv Podcast with Economist Kaiser Bengali

[Pratyush]

Dr. Qamar Cheema believes that the informal/undocumented economy in Pakistan has a size of USD $1 Trillion, even though the formal/documented economy is only USD $300 billion.

(source: https://www.youtube.com/live/XVFdx6tqzL ... bsRaZazVl7 )

Once upon a time, we used to have a collection of towels thread.

These days, "Dr Cheema" is nice substitute for that thread.

PS: this dude is a PhD. His Analysis is so superficial and shallow that sometimes I wonder how the hell he became a PhD.

But then I realise that he is a Pakistani.

[RCase]

Calling on respected senior Maulaners to please send their suggestions...

Yawn - SBP invites designs for new currency notes

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has invited the general public to submit designs for new currency notes as it initiates the process of replacing the existing banknotes.

The announcement came a day after the SBP governor told a meeting of analysts about the decision to introduce new currency notes with advanced security features and to address the issue of counterfeit notes.

The designers with the first, second and third designs of each denomination will be given prizes of Rs 1 million, Rs 500,000, and Rs 300,000, respectively.

What will be the USD to PKR rate at that time? 1 USD = 786 PKR ?

All you need to do is write in Arabic and Chinese calligraphy on toilet paper. Will make it 'really' valuable.

[A_Gupta]

Temporary relief.

Yawn:
"Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday changed its outlook on Pakistan’s banking sector from “negative” to “stable” citing its solid profitability, stable funding and liquidity, which it said “provide an adequate buffer’ to withstand the country’s macroeconomic challenges and political turmoil."

[SBajwa]

Dr. Qamar Cheema believes that the informal/undocumented economy in Pakistan has a size of USD $1 Trillion, even though the formal/documented economy is only USD $300 billion.

(source: https://www.youtube.com/live/XVFdx6tqzL ... bsRaZazVl7 )

Once upon a time, we used to have a collection of towels thread.

These days, "Dr Cheema" is nice substitute for that thread.

PS: this dude is a PhD. His Analysis is so superficial and shallow that sometimes I wonder how the hell he became a PhD.

But then I realise that he is a Pakistani.

PHD. From Islamabad University. He was writing his "Thesis" sitting in Washington D.C so he can say that he completed his Doctorate in USA albeit it was awarded by Islamabad University that goes by the name of MA Jinn.

[sanman]

India's Warnings to IMF on Loans to Pak Fall on Deaf Ears

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JwE4-u7HAs

[RCase]

Temporary relief.

Yawn:
"Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday changed its outlook on Pakistan’s banking sector from “negative” to “stable” citing its solid profitability, stable funding and liquidity, which it said “provide an adequate buffer’ to withstand the country’s macroeconomic challenges and political turmoil."

What did I miss? Did Paxtaan quietly mortgage a base or two to Amrika to become solidly profitable and stable and flush with liquidity?

[Aditya_V]

Or US does not Pakis to go under, personal wishlist is the Paki Fauj have agreed to confront Iran for some cash.

[nachiket]

What did I miss? Did Paxtaan quietly mortgage a base or two to Amrika to become solidly profitable and stable and flush with liquidity?

This is part of the standard paki economic cycle. They receive a bailout from the IMF, followed by more $ denominated loans from others and start riding high like raakitmards after a bowl of pindi chana. Then they refuse to accept the remaining IMF conditions and artificially inflate the value of the PKR, sell fuel to the awaam for cheap and let the imports flow freely. Eventually the gas..err money runs out and they come crashing back to the ground, leading to a new foreign debt crisis, increasing fuel prices, falling rupee, unrest on the streets which the uniforms use to throw the government out (which by then has become troublesome in some way) and get in their new puppets (whoever's turn it is). The new govt. will blame all the ills on the old one and go back to the IMF with begging bowl in hand. Rinse repeat.

[Manish_P]

^ The pimp needs the w&@¢e as much as the other way round...

[drnayar]

India's Warnings to IMF on Loans to Pak Fall on Deaf Ears

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JwE4-u7HAs

Old story. It rinse repeat. America is using its favourite to needle india again. I thought about this scenario when Blinken met the paki army chief (as well as newland ) . Goes to say you are never wrong NOT trusting the Americans

As pointed out above expect new weapons and terrorism hiking up across the border

[sanman]

Old story. It rinse repeat. America is using its favourite to needle india again. I thought about this scenario when Blinken met the paki army chief (as well as newland ) . Goes to say you are never wrong NOT trusting the Americans

As pointed out above expect new weapons and terrorism hiking up across the border

And yet Pak is a close ally to America's enemy China -- every bit as close as North Korea.

What we need to do is build up some Swing Capital / Swing Assets -- and I think that should best be done near Australia/AUKUS -- specifically by cultivating ties with island nations around them, like New Guinea and other smaller islands.

When US treats us better, then we can ensure our Swing Capital doesn't cause them problems -- but when US tries to screw us, then we can shift our Swing Capital into a different direction, to use as pressure points against AUKUS.

[Anujan]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nvestments

Multi-Billion Gulf Power Play Focuses on Egypt as Mideast War Rages

In barely 10 days, Egypt has gone from the brink of economic disaster to unlocking more than $40 billion of investments and loans from the United Arab Emirates and International Monetary Fund, with the likelihood of more to come from Saudi Arabia and others.

Whats the connection between Egypt and Pakistan you ask?

https://twitter.com/AajKamranKhan/statu ... 2671872125



If Pakistan also gets $40B it will the third game changer in recent times after the first game changer Thar coal and the second game changer CPEC

[A_Gupta]

Well, there are reasons for Egypt. But Pakistan?
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-dept ... -priority/

[disha]

Bakistan utility was there as long as the Former-UK Brishiters still thought of defeating the great bear, that is the Russian empire and its erstwhile extension Soviet Union. The moment Soviet Union disintegrated, the need for Bakistan vanished.

It got a renewed utility for some 15 years because of 9/11 and become the IT (International Terrorism) hub. Now even that utility is gone. Mostly post Pulwama.

There is no reason why anyone is interested in Bakistan. Except for getting few resources in Baluchistan and maybe access to landlocked fertile Pakjab via Sind. Even then, Pakjab with its jehadi infestation is best kept at arms' length.

So what's the utility of Bakistan? None. And Russian bear is getting entangled in the brambles of Ukraine. It is cheaper and easier for the West to entangle Russian Bear in Ukraine, since after the fall of Soviet Union, Russia is cushioned by the CAR states. So west has to cut through Bakistan, Afghanistan and then CAR before it can needle the bear on its tushy.

Egypt at least has Suez canal, which can transport a trains of shiploads of goods and energy. There are few or almost zero alternatives to Suez canal and hence Egypt can sit pretty as "too big to fail" and can attract investments from petro- rich GCC and Araps. And even rest of the world including Japan. What Bakistan has?

The CPEC route which Cheen is trying to get going is fraught with severe risks.

From Gwadar to Gilgit is a @3000 km route before it can go across over to Kashgar or Hotan via Karakoram overlooked by Siachen. Gilgit is very much in PoK, which is part of India. The route itself has to traverse through Quetta otherwise if it traverses through Multan or Rahim Yar Khan, it is just a half a Brahmos hop from Jaisalmer proper. Loitering drones will have juicy targets.

Anyway, from Hotan to Chengdu, it is another 3000 km or 4000 km drive and another 2000 - 3000 Km to where the factories of China are. So one has to travel a distance of ~10,000 km, once one leaves Gwadar before one can see any modern civilization (assuming the Ship has mates who are civilized). Anyway, there is no point in having a fuel truck (or train)

Suez canal was created as a shortcut for sea trade. And the British followed the Chozan maxim, if you rule land, you rule the country and if you rule the seas then you rule the world.

CPEC (Gwadar-Cheen route) is no short cut. In fact it is boondoggle, most likely by some PLA "strategists" to make money out of lucrative contracts. It is cheaper for Cheen to negotiate oil and gas from Russia and get it from Sakhalin. As a military base, it has limited utility. More like a listening outpost than a full fledged base.

Given all that, why would there be interest in Bakistan?

Lahore and Karachi by themselves do not have the heft of say Hongkong or S'gapore. Islamofascism destroys all innovations, and hence there is no major intellectual output from those hubs other than ways to do Jehadi terrorism.

There is no-one ready to invest millions, leave alone Billions in moth-eaten Bakistan.

[Aditya_V]

Actually you got it all wrong, Pakistan was created for the Slaughter of Hindus, the support for Pakistan comes from Hindu hatred. That's its only use, a dagger in India's heart.

It was the planned first step in the De-hinduisation of Indian Subcontinent.

[disha]

Actually you got it all wrong, Pakistan was created for the Slaughter of Hindus, the support for Pakistan comes from Hindu hatred. That's its only use, a dagger in India's heart.

It was the planned first step in the De-hinduisation of Indian Subcontinent.

Aiyo Saar! Been watching west and bakistan since several decades. An oldie like you. Getting India contained was another tangible benefit.

Anyway, topic is Baki economic crisis watch. And point remains, CPEC is a boondoggle where crore kamandus and corrupt PLA benefit. Its utility as an alternate energy supply to Cheen is near zero.