Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2011

[habal]

Rest assured, India has enough or more of maal of 'dirty variety' and 'reactor-variety' to consume 10 pakistans. They may not all have been weaponized or even need to be weaponized but that stuff is there. But then that is a different game, and only thing like terror-attack etc can give cover to using that. Again this is not an area where tspa will choose to be cornered into so there is more reason why massive terror attack from hereon can only harm tspa massively.

We thus have only two options, all out annihilation or a short-term small-scale fencing match at the border with 1:1.1 in mind.

[VikramS]

shiv:

I am still waiting for your analysis on the TSP without Uncle; have not seen anything substantial though the subtle MUTU barbs continue.

Regarding lack of retaliation: Suppose TSP is nuke nood and the US is no longer a sugar-daddy. Suppose India develops a spine and after yet another attack the unleashes cold start and what not and occupies part of the land currently supposed to be under TSP authority. Then what? Will the Jehadis with the 10-20million AKs simply vanish or does the INC plan to assimilate them into India to strengthen their vote bank?

In the big picture, I see three big power centers: #1 The Anglo/West First World, #2 The Islamic world with TSP as its self-appointed spear-head , and #3 the CCP led Chinese

Unfortunately for India, TSP has been able to make itself as the center of the power struggle between these three jostling power centers. TSP has those 3/3.5 friends not because they have some special love for the TSP, but because TSP has been able to negotiate, GUBO, threaten concessions from all of them to serve her interests.

Do you feel that without the US, the influence of the Jehadis will increase or decrease? And with Uncle out of on the ground picture, will the Jehadis want to stir up the hornet's nest again across the seven seas or go for the lower hanging fruit just across the LOC?

In terms of ideology and core principles, is the PLA-CCP + TSPA/Islamist combo less lethal to India compared to the TSPA managed by Uncle?

Whenever I think of the CCP I remember that Mao calculation of how the Chinese will come ahead in a nuke conflict even if they lose 400 million. I see the chances of that happening not insignificant enough to ignore if it is the god-loss Communists and the faithfools hand in hand.

Anujan:

I had exactly the same ideas about a decade ago. The problem is that the Indian Elite knows that there will be some retaliation in kind. So they do not do that overtly.

Karna:

Shooting down an Altantique does not matter since the TSP-elites do not care.

abhishek:

I do not doubt what you are saying about the 1:1.1. ratio. Their entire country runs to serve the TSPA and while the RAPE-elite are busy grabbing land and what not, when it comes to acquiring military weapons they try to get the biggest bang for the buck. While we make fun of Mr 10%, in India the cuts seem to be even higher if the CWG/2G scam are any indication.

[Hari Seldon]

One thing I haven't been able to get is the 'relative' lull in terror attacks on mango people in India post 26/11. I'm sure its not because of the ISI-TSPA reforming themselves. And the nook bugbear is still around.

Unkil claims it is US pressure? Why for would unkil care about Pak attcks on SDRE civilians here? Besides, facilitating headley style agents doesn't do amreeki protestations on anti-Indian terror emanating from Pak any good.

So, what could it be that is stopping a monthly attack here or there in some random crowded place in India? After all, the logistics etc of implementing random terror isn't terribly new to the ISI-LeT types.

Could it be that perhaps India also has some cards to play which we jingoes on BRF are unaware of but that the TSPA types know of? What exactly is restraining their hand?

Again, somehow doesn't seem to square up only.

[rohitvats]

<SNIP>

That book is more of a whinefest than objective analysis - though, filled with loads of nuggets of infomation.

[ManishH]

One thing I haven't been able to get is the 'relative' lull in terror attacks on mango people in India post 26/11.
...
Unkil claims it is US pressure? Why for would unkil care about Pak attcks on SDRE civilians here?

US cares because everytime GoI just responds with a general mobilization aka Op Parakram, that gives Kayani a breather from FATA and out rush Pak
army to it's eastern front. That disturbs US illusion that Pak army is
fighting a "war on terror".

So bottom line: US wants peace on Indo-Pak border while it's in Af-Pak:
no terrorist ops, no LoC confrontations. Pak is only permitted it's regular
programme of breeding AK-wielding rats and sneaking them into J&K.

Isn't this infuriating as hell to Kayani: you bet! The only reason he plays
with it is bribe of F-16s and AMRAAMs.

Should India be happy with the lull: no way! It's just a matter of time when US leaves the region, victorious or not.

[habal]

One thing I haven't been able to get is the 'relative' lull in terror attacks on mango people in India post 26/11. I'm sure its not because of the ISI-TSPA reforming themselves. And the nook bugbear is still around.

Unkil claims it is US pressure? Why for would unkil care about Pak attcks on SDRE civilians here? Besides, facilitating headley style agents doesn't do amreeki protestations on anti-Indian terror emanating from Pak any good.

So, what could it be that is stopping a monthly attack here or there in some random crowded place in India? After all, the logistics etc of implementing random terror isn't terribly new to the ISI-LeT types.

Could it be that perhaps India also has some cards to play which we jingoes on BRF are unaware of but that the TSPA types know of? What exactly is restraining their hand?

Again, somehow doesn't seem to square up only.

All this is being orchestrated from outside the subcontinent.

26/11 also benefited players from outside subcontinent, we were revealed pictures of just a few foot-soldiers who belong around here.

[abhishek_sharma]

Chandraban's post couple of weeks ago in JK thread where a Biz man of India arguing with "INC influencers" that we should handover valley to Pak so that he can do business in Pak gives the zist of mindset that is prevailing in the ruling combo.

You don't understand at all. It is called "confidence" and "creativity" these days. It will help us to become "global power". These arguments generally use terms like "GDP", "socio-economic variables", "polio", "malnourished children" etc.

[abhishek_sharma]

That book is more of a whinefest than objective analysis - though, filled with loads of nuggets of infomation.

Any recommended books on this topic?

[abhishek_sharma]

Regarding retribution: Why can't we use our artillery for giving Pakis their 72 goats. If 10 people are killed in a terrorist attack in India, we should randomly pick any Paki village/town near the border, and pound it until 20 Pakis die. The range of Bofors guns is about 27 km. Ultimately, we should clear the 27 km zone adjoining the Indian border. What can they do? (This was done after the Kaluchak incident.)

[SSridhar]

Knowing when not to talk

When I see these types of articles, I am reminded of Vidura's advice to Lord Krishna when the latter went to Duryodhan as a messenger of the Pandavas. Vidura very clearly told Krishna that egged on by the likes of Shakuni and having immense confidence in the abilities of Karan, Duryodhan would spurn away the initiative and Krishna would be only ridiculed. He said that talks with such a person would be useless. Of course, Lord Krishna, being omnipotent, delivers the message in style. Not being Lord Krishna, our fate will be different. In any case, Vidura's sagacious words about the uselessness of the talks were true.

[partha]

Knowing when not to talk

When I see these types of articles, I am reminded of Vidura's advice to Lord Krishna when the latter went to Duryodhan as a messenger of the Pandavas. Vidura very clearly told Krishna that egged on by the likes of Shakuni and having immense confidence in the abilities of Karan, Duryodhan would spurn away the initiative and Krishna would be only ridiculed. He said that talks with such a person would be useless. Of course, Lord Krishna, being omnipotent, delivers the message in style. Not being Lord Krishna, our fate will be different. In any case, Vidura's sagacious words about the uselessness of the talks were true.

And Krishna says to Vidura "I know what Kauravas think. They won't listen to me. War is inevitable. Yet I am here for talks to show the world who is responsible for the war"!

[SSridhar]

And Krishna says to Vidura "I know what Kauravas think. They won't listen to me. War is inevitable. Yet I am here for talks to show the world who is responsible for the war"!

So, let's prepare for war, then.

[partha]

And Krishna says to Vidura "I know what Kauravas think. They won't listen to me. War is inevitable. Yet I am here for talks to show the world who is responsible for the war"!

So, let's prepare for war, then.

Yes Sir, that is obvious! hope our decision makers know about this incident from Mahabharata.

[Karna_A]

One thing I haven't been able to get is the 'relative' lull in terror attacks on mango people in India post 26/11. I'm sure its not because of the ISI-TSPA reforming themselves. And the nook bugbear is still around.

There are many reasons behind it, none of it is because ISI-TSPA reforming itself.

(a) Its very difficult to make a terror attack in India without local help. The problem is local help gets into issues once they are found out because their familes are in India and they are then hounded. Local help can help in smuggling etc. but terrorism involvement results in action against families. Even dawood's family prefer India to TSP, and some have emigrated back and now are in
(b) A pure ISI led attack has all fingers pointing back and this time the world community will pull back TSP economic help which will result in 300% inflation like Zimbabawe and TSPA wants to avoid street riots.
(c) 26/11 made a significant IM as anti pakistan which was the biggest loss as per TSP calculations
(d) KSA, Chipanda and Unkil all restrained TSP in their own ways, for their own long term benefits(And not due to any sudden luv for India)

Finally each big attack unites Indians, makes it's police way stronger without any profit to TSP core issues. More of such attacks actually help the hardliners in Indian govt. otherwise Digvijay singh types run amok like now is the case.

[Maram]

Knowing when not to talk

When I see these types of articles, I am reminded of Vidura's advice to Lord Krishna when the latter went to Duryodhan as a messenger of the Pandavas. Vidura very clearly told Krishna that egged on by the likes of Shakuni and having immense confidence in the abilities of Karan, Duryodhan would spurn away the initiative and Krishna would be only ridiculed. He said that talks with such a person would be useless. Of course, Lord Krishna, being omnipotent, delivers the message in style. Not being Lord Krishna, our fate will be different. In any case, Vidura's sagacious words about the uselessness of the talks were true.

Over the years I was a lurker on the forums and I have always enjoyed your posts on IWT/ TSP related stuff immensely. I have the greatest respect for your knowledge and ability to connect the dots. I say this as I am "tired" of many Indians including my brother and father who always constantly deride,criticise and taunt Our bureacracy and political leadership.

Indian strategy towards TSP has always been successful, atleast since 1971. 1971 was the last full on open war. it convinced the TSP Jarnails of the futility of Open War with India. Kargil was an adventurim on the back of nuclear black mail. The down skill sking in Blair House; Washington was a singular Indian Diplomatic triumph. It led to a broader US-Indian engagement. For the first time, Terrorists are freedom fighters was flushed down the toilet. Also US and the World openly came out and said TSP Army was the Infiltrator. So Even Limited Engagement was not feasible from then on. The Broader Indo-American engagement led to removal of US sanctions on India, the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership, the Indo -US Civilian nuclear Deal and the removal of DRDO/ISRO from the enteties list and approving sale of dual use technologies. Admission to MTCR,NSG and SC Membership are well on their way. Our voting share at IMF have gone up. We are a key player at WTO Negotiations.

TSP were always brilliant tactically. As a tactic,Kargil was brilliant. But India were always brilliant STRATEGICALLY.We had thinkers like KS Garu, PV Narasimha Rao,Brajesh Mishra,Jaswant Singh(Jaswant's rebuttal of MTCR/NSG failing to prevent proliferation in our neighbourhood post 1998.. he goes into great details in his book "a call to honour" is Brilliant... worth a read).We always converted a bad situation to our advantage. the Balance of Payment crisis was used to open the economy. Kargil was used to eventually land the nuclear deal.

Every one knows now TSP is in Intensive care with Amir Khan providing life blood.Chipanda may take over in the near future.TSP ka raaz ab tho aam aadmi bhi jaanta hain. MMS/Sonia ji/Yuvraj can't cross the red lines without severe repurcussions domestically and so despite many chai biskoot sessions and TSP protestations,tactical victories for TSP will be mirages in Thar Desert!LOL!

Over History, India has proved, we are not a land of revolutions, but EVOLUTION/S. Evolve ... we will. Succeed we will. We have a "Tryst with destiny"...

Despite constant catfights amongst themselves for everything, remarkably strategic thinking continutiy has been maintained between PVNR/Janata Dal Government and NDA and eventually UPA( minor differences aside). Tactical mistakes like Sharm Al Sheikh and SMK reading Portuguese speech are just minor issues in the over all picture.

JMT..

[CRamS]

One thing I haven't been able to get is the 'relative' lull in terror attacks on mango people in India post 26/11. I'm sure its not because of the ISI-TSPA reforming themselves. And the nook bugbear is still around.

Unkil claims it is US pressure? Why for would unkil care about Pak attcks on SDRE civilians here? Besides, facilitating headley style agents doesn't do amreeki protestations on anti-Indian terror emanating from Pak any good.

So, what could it be that is stopping a monthly attack here or there in some random crowded place in India? After all, the logistics etc of implementing random terror isn't terribly new to the ISI-LeT types.

Could it be that perhaps India also has some cards to play which we jingoes on BRF are unaware of but that the TSPA types know of? What exactly is restraining their hand?

Again, somehow doesn't seem to square up only.

Its easy to explain:

1) TSP has gotten away with murder. Unkil cajoled its man MMS to make up with TSP and so TSP does not want to spoil the party. Basically, through 26/11, TSP deposited a huge bank balance, and its living off that. Any terror will spoil the party.

2) There has been some pressure from US. As many have pointed out, its not because US cares 2 hoots about SDRE lives, but rather, any attack and potential Indian retribution diverts TSP KKK from doing US's God's duty of fighting the evil, mighty, "Al Queda".

3) As much as I myself have been critical of India, I sense that India has delivered some kind of message that another attack will invite massive, instant retribution, nukes be damned.

My prediction: There will be no major terror attack as long as US is in AfPak. The real tamasha starts after US exits. Thats what TSP is aiming for.

[abhishek_sharma]

Indian strategy towards TSP has always been successful, atleast since 1971.

...

Despite constant catfights amongst themselves for everything, remarkably strategic thinking continutiy has been maintained between PVNR/Janata Dal Government and NDA and eventually UPA( minor differences aside).

There is just one small problem. Thousands of Indians have been killed in terrorist attacks (insurgencies and Kargil) since 1971. As long as we ignore it as "minor issues", we should remain happy with higher voting share in IMF. This "remarkable strategic thinking" has probably led to "success". People who live in $1 billion houses in Mumbai are revelling in their "tryst with destiny". I am sure they are following "WTO negotiations" with bated breath. On the platforms of Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus station, the results of "Next Steps in Strategic Partnership" are not considered very important. They just want to reach their homes safely. Thank you very much.

[shiv]

shiv:

I am still waiting for your analysis on the TSP without Uncle; have not seen anything substantial though the subtle MUTU barbs continue.

You must not take the barbs personally. I am pointing out the possibility of existence of twin loyalties that may come into conflict with each other. It is worth recalling that every Indian inside India or outside India can have more than one conflicting loyalty, not just Indian Americans. As I have pointed out there may be people who love India and are communists as well and feel kinship with China. Some Indian Muslims with family ties in Pakistan may have a twin loyalty for India and Pakistan. So having mixed loyalties for the US and India is not a crime but can be a mental impediment if one chooses to believe that conflicts of interest cannot exist or that other Indians in India and elsewhere should not have twin or triple loyalties.

Regarding lack of retaliation: Suppose TSP is nuke nood and the US is no longer a sugar-daddy. Suppose India develops a spine and after yet another attack the unleashes cold start and what not and occupies part of the land currently supposed to be under TSP authority. Then what? Will the Jehadis with the 10-20million AKs simply vanish or does the INC plan to assimilate them into India to strengthen their vote bank?

Please don't ask me any question that requires me to to answer for the INC. You sound like an Indian American with strong opinions on Indian politics. Ask me the same question minus the politics and I might be tempted to give you a reply. I have an apolitical view on the reality of such occupation. You are asking for a "meddling irrelevant NRI" barb.

Do you feel that without the US, the influence of the Jehadis will increase or decrease? And with Uncle out of on the ground picture, will the Jehadis want to stir up the hornet's nest again across the seven seas or go for the lower hanging fruit just across the LOC?

One of the reasons I have not spoken of "removal of US influence" is because I believe it is too simplistic to imagine that US influence will simply vanish without trace and the US will stop meddling the the region completely as it did in Vietnam after the downhill ski of 1975 (Was that the year?)

One has to look at different scenarios of how the influence of the US may go, if it goes at all. I have already stated that if the US suddenly vanishes "poof" - China will still not be able to fill the US's shoes exactly. And the US cannot vanish magically. The other thing to look at is to imagine what would have happened if 9-11 had not occurred when it did. But it did.

The US in my view will not voluntarily leave the region. The US is not a superpower for nothing. It will only leave the region if it has no further interest in the region. Given that the region has some strategic importance wrt to oil and other minerals and there is currently nothing to replace that - the US is unlikely to cut and run voluntarily. It will have to be pushed out by forces and circumstances that the US is unable to defeat. If the US is pushed out by such hypothetical forces - its interest in the region will still not go if its oil supply lines or national security are at risk. For the US, the ability to have markets to sell to and access to those markets is also "security". So all in all the US will have to suffer some kind of reversal for it to leave the region and even then it will maintain some presence. i see very little possibility of the US suffering such a reversal.

But the US presence in Pakistan has been a long term threat to India. (Whether China would be a bigger threat in the absence of the US is a separate question that I will not talk about here and now) Pakistan is a threat to India and the US has armed Pakistan against India in exchange for Pakistan doing the US's work. But I have already stated that the US is not going to leave the region. That being the case - I would like the US to stop supplying Pakistan with arms that can be used against India. Secondly I think that Pakistan should be split into Pashtunistan and perhaps Baluchistan as well. Both these are problem areas where Pakistan has a civil war in progress. I believe that US military and diplomatic aid to the Pakistan military is helping to keep "Pakistan the nation" intact. I would much rather see Pashtunistan being formed and I see the US as a hindrance to that because it is arming and funding the Pakistan army and that Pakistan army is not going to allow a Pashtunistan to form.

You could ask me if Pashtunistan will form if the US goes away. I can only say that Pashtunistan cannot form as long as the US sits in the region. The US is not going to support anything less than an intact Pakistan. The threat to split Pakistan could come if the US gets desperate. And that gives us another reason to try and defeat the US in the region and make it desperate


Will stop for now.

[Maram]

Indian strategy towards TSP has always been successful, atleast since 1971.

...

Despite constant catfights amongst themselves for everything, remarkably strategic thinking continutiy has been maintained between PVNR/Janata Dal Government and NDA and eventually UPA( minor differences aside).

There is just one small problem. Thousands of Indians have been killed in terrorist attacks (insurgencies and Kargil) since 1971. As long as we ignore it as "minor issues", we should remain happy with higher voting share in IMF. This "remarkable strategic thinking" has probably led to "success". People who live in $1 billion houses in Mumbai are revelling in their "tryst with destiny". I am sure they are following "WTO negotiations" with bated breath. On the platforms of Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus station, the results of "Next Steps in Strategic Partnership" are not considered very important. They just want to reach their homes safely. Thank you very much.

Abhishek, I am not ignorant of loss of life following terrorist attacks in India. I lost some one very close in Mumbai 2008. I do not take death or loss of life as minor issue.

Since 1991, economic reforms, India has lifted more people out of poverty (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India).Ofcourse, there is still alot to achieve. Disparities between rich and poor have existed since time immemorial. No system or country or governance is immune from it. No where did I claim that India is perfect or Everything is fine.

As the Onida TV ad used to say "Neighbours envy.. owners pride". Ostentatious displays of wealth like Antilla is not the result of India's liberalisation. It has happened before that and will happen afterwards too. Free Market reforms are not perfect, but they sure lifted more out of poverty than fabian socialism ever did anwhere in the world.

[abhishek_sharma]

Abhishek, I am not ignorant of loss of life following terrorist attacks in India. I lost some one very close in Mumbai 2008. I do not take death or loss of life as minor issue.

I still do not understand how "Indian strategy towards TSP has always been successful, atleast since 1971."

I also do not see any evidence of "remarkable strategic thinking".

[abhishek_sharma]

Since 1991, economic reforms, India has lifted more people out of poverty (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India).Ofcourse, there is still alot to achieve. Disparities between rich and poor have existed since time immemorial. No system or country or governance is immune from it. No where did I claim that India is perfect or Everything is fine.

As the Onida TV ad used to say "Neighbours envy.. owners pride". Ostentatious displays of wealth like Antilla is not the result of India's liberalisation. It has happened before that and will happen afterwards too. Free Market reforms are not perfect, but they sure lifted more out of poverty than fabian socialism ever did anwhere in the world.

I am not advocating socialism. Anyway, it is OT here.

[Gerard]

Swat stories: Pakistan army soap woos sceptical public

[Karan M]

Indian strategy towards TSP has always been successful, atleast since 1971.

You have to be kidding. If your definition of success is the wanton death of tens of thousands, in the Punjab insurgency, the J&K conflict and the urban terror campaign, yeah India has been very very successful in its strategy. The strategy of offering up its citizens as bait while the political elite live in absolute comfort with layers of security and doing 2G scams.

The Broader Indo-American engagement led to removal of US sanctions on India, the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership, the Indo -US Civilian nuclear Deal and the removal of DRDO/ISRO from the enteties list and approving sale of dual use technologies. Admission to MTCR,NSG and SC Membership are well on their way. Our voting share at IMF have gone up. We are a key player at WTO Negotiations.

All these are irrelevant vis a vis India's absolute impotence in dealing with Pakistani terror and the loss of life and economic hits it has taken.

TSP were always brilliant tactically. As a tactic,Kargil was brilliant.

That is a myth they foster. Even tactically, their execution was pathetic. They took no account of logistics and did not even factor airpower into consideration. Climbing on a bunch of mountains and yelling victory is one thing. Logistics, sustainment and holding out against counterattacks is another.

But India were always brilliant STRATEGICALLY.We had thinkers like KS Garu, PV Narasimha Rao,Brajesh Mishra,Jaswant Singh(Jaswant's rebuttal of MTCR/NSG failing to prevent proliferation in our neighbourhood post 1998.. he goes into great details in his book "a call to honour" is Brilliant... worth a read).We always converted a bad situation to our advantage. the Balance of Payment crisis was used to open the economy. Kargil was used to eventually land the nuclear deal.

These brilliant "strategic thinkers", wrote brilliant strategic articles about how brilliant strategic India is being attacked by Pakistan all the way from the 80s - I remember Illustrated Weekly of India carrying KS articles, and whining apart, India did nothing. Several of these guys ended up just writing reams of stuff which nobody did anything about.
The basic problem in India, your boundless optimism - something shared by many NRIs who see their motherland grow in whatever fashion, and then extrapolate it with joy - is the current leadership, which btw in one form or the other has ruled India for almost 90% of its existence, is absolutely unaffected by terrorism or any such thing which affects common people who use autos, buses, railway terminals, and don't have 7-8 layers of security to protect their sorry hides. Meanwhile, the business elite in India are busy minting money and are only concerned about that, and their next trip to their foreign junket. That just ignores the almost all pervasive issue of corruption and the complete disconnect of the political masters with the public, which anyway votes anyone to power depending on sops for caste, community and sundry "lets loot the treasury" social schemes (most of the money never reaches the intended recipients).

Yes, Pakistan is in a much worse state. If India is dysfunctional, Pakistan is not even functional and has little if anything in the way of talent, scientific acumen or even potential. But theres no denying that when it comes to security policy, India has been led by a bunch of folks, several of whom fiddled while India suffered. Whether it be SeS or the shambolic manner in which India has handled the post 26/11 "lets talk, dont talk" bakwaas, and the Aman ki Asha nonsense, it only proves one thing that the elite in India lack any sense of strategy, and are imbued with a superiority complex that allows them to define their own version of reality, where they are the forgiving elder brother indulging a wayward Pak. In reality, Pak hates India with a passion & has only contempt for these wannabe Nobel prize winners, and common Indian citizen suffer for this foolishness.

[jagga]

SG on Indian Elites in one of the paragraphs of his column.
Thank God for politics

The more interesting thing, however, is that it is the rich who are applauding this lynch mob. Exactly the classes who wanted to hire private commandos in Mumbai after 26/11, to stop paying taxes, and keep routinely calling for election boycotts. You ask them who they would prefer as their rulers if not our “netas” and they waffle: the Congress has nobody worthwhile, the BJP has imploded, the third front is dead, and Mayawati, arre baap re baap... There was a time when the same class was fascinated with Musharraf: so smart, so with it, so confident, what swagger, so articulate, so much “like” us . More important, so unlike our smelly, pot-bellied, crotch-scratching politicians who mostly do not know how to dress or speak English. You know where he ended up as millions of brave Pakistanis took to the streets to protect their democratic rights and their judiciary

[ManishH]

TSP were always brilliant tactically. As a tactic,Kargil was brilliant. But India were always brilliant STRATEGICALLY.

Perhaps my aspiration of our national destiny is way higher than yours, that's why I think it's we who are the strategic under-performers. Pak has achieved disproportionate strategic success.

This is the sum total of our strategic state - India has been contained in the subcontinent - whereas our destiny is to influence from Bosphorus to the Indian ocean. And even in the subcontinent, we just have the strength to defend against 2 front aggression but not enough to deter aggression.

Unless we learn from our mistakes, we will keep getting more and more
contained.

For those who think Pak collapse is imminent - our parameters of successful nationhood are not the same as theirs. They will be just fine with zero economic aid as long as they keep get their military supplies. The economic aid is just money siphoned by PPP and landlords - the average jihadi's happiness isn't going to be affected if you take it away.

Even the ethnic clashes are like bar brawls that make the gangster more
bloodthirsty when he goes to the streets.

[Karan M]

SG on Indian Elites in one of the paragraphs of his column.
Thank God for politics

The more interesting thing, however, is that it is the rich who are applauding this lynch mob. Exactly the classes who wanted to hire private commandos in Mumbai after 26/11, to stop paying taxes, and keep routinely calling for election boycotts. You ask them who they would prefer as their rulers if not our “netas” and they waffle: the Congress has nobody worthwhile, the BJP has imploded, the third front is dead, and Mayawati, arre baap re baap... There was a time when the same class was fascinated with Musharraf: so smart, so with it, so confident, what swagger, so articulate, so much “like” us . More important, so unlike our smelly, pot-bellied, crotch-scratching politicians who mostly do not know how to dress or speak English. You know where he ended up as millions of brave Pakistanis took to the streets to protect their democratic rights and their judiciary

Does he mention he was one of thus cozying up to Musharraf? I recall Musharraf had come to India and SG was one of those fawning over him..

[Gagan]

Is Zardari's end around the corner?

The Raymond Davis episode has been made to drag more longer than would usually be the norm in Pakistan. Pakistan is the same nation which does not have any compunctions about handing over its citizens to the US for booty. Musharraf and his cronies are not the only ones with similar tendencies, the present army leadership are no different.

So the question is, why has this been going on for so long?
1. Kiyani wants to show his army soldiers that he is putting his foot down when two army wallahs deputed to the ISI were killed. The US will have to pay for it.
2. There is a possibility that both Nawaz Sharif and Kiyani will use this to ultimately put the blame on Zardari's shoulders. The pieces on the chess board are being moved to checkmate Zardari.
The blame for RD's release might be pinned squarely on Zardari's shoulders, and for all we know, Kiyani-Pasha might be planning a fake revolution within Pakistan to let the abduls blow off some steam and get rid of Zardari, and tout it as the great awakening of Pakistan.
So that all the abduls of that land get together for a little while, as they celebrate the demise of yet another leader.

[Narad]

http://tribune.com.pk/story/119100/myst ... ill-alive/

Mystery prevails: ‘Col Imam still alive’
However, sources told The Express Tribune that Col Imam was alive and his family is negotiating with the captors to secure his release.

Now that the video is out, there is very little to doubt.

Hakimullah in TTP video of Colonel Imam’s killing

[jrjrao]

Op-ed in the Washington Post today about L-e-T and PakiSatan's support for it:

An alarming South Asia powder keg
By Juan C. Zarate
Sunday, February 20, 2011

In 1914, a terrorist assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo - unleashing geopolitical forces and World War I. Today, while the United States rightly worries about al-Qaeda targeting the homeland, the most dangerous threat may be another terrorist flash point on the horizon.

Lashkar-i-Taiba holds the match that could spark a conflagration between nuclear-armed historic rivals India and Pakistan. Lashkar-i-Taiba is a Frankenstein's monster of the Pakistani government's creation 20 years ago. It has diverse financial networks and well-trained and well-armed cadres that have struck Indian targets from Mumbai to Kabul. It collaborates with the witches' brew of terrorist groups in Pakistan, including al-Qaeda, and has demonstrated global jihadist ambitions. It is merely a matter of time before Lashkar-i-Taiba attacks again.

Significant terrorist attacks in India, against Parliament in 2001 and in Mumbai in 2008, brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war. The countries remain deeply distrustful of each other. Another major strike against Indian targets in today's tinderbox environment could lead to a broader, more devastating conflict.

The United States should be directing political and diplomatic capital to prevent such a conflagration.

Washington has only so much time. Indian officials are increasingly dissatisfied with Pakistan's attempts to constrain Lashkar-i-Taiba and remain convinced that Pakistani intelligence supports the group. An Indian intelligence report concluded last year that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate was involved in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, and late last year the Indian government raised security levels in anticipation of strikes. India is unlikely to show restraint in the event of another attack.

So what can the United States do to ratchet down tensions?

We need to build trust, confidence and consistent lines of communications between India and Pakistan. This begins by helping both parties pave the way for a constructive dialogue on the status of Kashmir. Steps toward progress would include pushing for real accountability of figures responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the handing over of wanted Lashkar-i-Taiba facilitators such as Indian crime lord Dawood Ibrahim.

The United States also needs to disrupt the terrorist group's fundraising and planning. The focus should be on unearthing names and disrupting cells outside Pakistan that are tied to Lashkar-i-Taiba, which involves pressuring Islamabad for the names of Westerners who may have trained at Lashkar-i-Taiba camps.

This is among the thorniest U.S. national security and counterterrorism problems.

The writer, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism from 2005 to 2009.

[Karan M]

abhishek_sharma - shocking! At 1:1.1 edge, what punitive action is India going to take? It turns Indian leaders from pusillanimous to prudent.

That article/book is from 1999 - 2001. Ten years back.
But, capability flows from identified need. When the NSA or somebody was quoted as saying that he didnt see the viability of something like Cold Start in the media, its clear the political bosses dont think a military option is useful, and hence have not done much to build it up. The biggest contributor to anything military useful from Army persepective is artillery. One decade from 2001, and we still dont have anything there, as the present Govt has pretty much cancelled/stopped any movement because of Bofors and they dont have any urgency in building up army capabilities. So its more a question of what the Govt think should be done. If we are serious about conflict about Pakistan, we really need to build up all units. IAF is down to 30-33 Sq right now (of 39.5) per news, and even 39.5 is barely enough to do all that is required, eg deter China and hunt Paki missiles.

[RajeshA]

I think there is a need for something like "Senate Armed Services Committee" from the Lok Sabha, which should make determinations of the preparedness of our Armed Forces, as well as the cooperation of the MoD to that effect.

It should be able to take the Government to task for not doing its duty!

[somnath]

abhishek_sharma - shocking! At 1:1.1 edge, what punitive action is India going to take? It turns Indian leaders from pusillanimous to prudent.

These capability edge analyses are always done in subjective, opinionated terms...In 1971, the edge was 1:1.7, now it is 1:1.1 - based on what? Isnt 1:3 an oft quoted superiority ratio for gaining victory? How did we then, win in 1971? Or for that matter, in 1998? I wonder whether the Allies had a 3:1 superiority over the Germans during the first great German reverses in Africa and Russia?

Empirical evidence therefore never adds up as neatly as should be expected with such neat numerical "edge ratios"..

1990 standoff: Seymour Hersh writes probably with the most authority on the Gates mission...And the message conveyed to the Pak military by Gates was unambiguous -"general, we have wargamed every single scenario conceivable, and there is not a single way you win"...

Kargil: Jaswant Singh writes extensively about it in "Call to Honour".......There is no allusion to any conventional capability gap..In fact, the nuclear overhang and the world's reaction to it were the bigger issues to confront, according to him..Kaisar Tufail provides the most honest insider account from the Paki side...Even a limited air defence exercise rendered the F16 fleet out of effective action in quick time...A full scale war would have meant that the fleet wasnt availbale at all even quicker...Bharat Karnad has referred to the same point many time as well..And that was the tip of the Pak spear...We are to conclude yet that India's edge in 1998 was 1:1.2 or something?

Parakram: Jaswant Singh again wites extensively on that...In his accounts, restraining the service chiefs from "having a crack" (his words) was one of his prime challenges!!! No allusion to any lack of confidence (in anyone in the system) about carrying out a conventional mandate, but lots of discussion on the nuclear overhang...

Over the last 10 years, India has outspent Pak nearly 3:1 on defence (notwithstanding the source of funding)...We are yet to conclude that somehow our superiority gap in conventional terms is 1:1.1!?

It is foolhardy to underestimate the enemy..But thre should be a degree of realism as well, no?

[Pranav]

Punjab fears Davis may be killed — even by CIA

By Ansar Abbasi
Saturday, February 19, 2011

ISLAMABAD: Apprehensions about a possible attempt on the life of Raymond Davis, including even by Americans themselves, have compelled the authorities in Lahore to boost his security and keep him at some distance from the US officials as well.

Fearing that the high profile prisoner may be killed, extraordinary security measures have been undertaken. These measures include limiting physical contact of Davis with even US officials and diplomats.

According to official sources, a directive has been issued to strictly check the food provided to the American killer. “A food committee has been constituted, which would ensure that he is not provided poisoned food in the jail,” a source said.

The source disclosed that the jail authorities had also been directed not to allow Davis any food from outside, including one sent by the US Consulate. “Even chocolates, brought by the US officials, would not be provided to Davis,” the source said, adding that surveillance cameras had also been installed zeroing in on Davis in the Kot Lakhpat Jail.

“We were asked to remove the surveillance cameras, installed to constantly monitor Davis, but we declined to do so because it is critical for his security,” the source said, explaining, “We can’t take any risk, we can’t rule out any possibility, we can’t afford to be lenient in any manner.”

Additionally, it has also been decided to avoid physical contact between Davis and US officials, who visit him as part of consular access facility allowed to him. His visitors would now be allowed to interact with him from across a glass wall, as it happens in the West and the US.

The authorities seriously apprehend that anyone, including US intelligence agencies, might try to kill the man, who despite being a technical assistant has the kind of importance that President Obama had to seek his early release and influential Senator John Kerry rushed to Pakistan and met all the important figures here to take him back to the United States as soon as possible.

Officials here wonder as to what was so special about Raymond Davis that Washington has simply panicked after his arrest. It is said that his activities, his actions, his extraordinary marksmanship, his possessions, including sophisticated weapon, ammunition, GPS, etc, and his physical build-up, show he is not what he claims to be. “Why the United States is so desperate to get him released immediately,” the source asked.

US Embassy Spokesperson Courtney Beale, when asked about the growing apprehensions of Pakistani authorities about the security of Davis and that even suspicions centred around US intelligence agencies, said, “This is ridiculous, and a mere conspiracy theory.

“The US would never ever want any of its diplomats to be killed,” she said, adding that those apprehending such an act from the United States, do not need to fear this. Already, the Punjab government has deployed multiple security cordons, including that of Rangers, at the Kot Lakhpat Jail to pre-empt a possible Hollywood-style sting operation by the US forces to get Raymond Davis released.

The Punjab authorities were apprehending that in sheer frustration, the Americans could conduct a sting operation. Thus they had taken all security measures. The security of Davis has been increased while keeping in mind all possibilities, including an assault on him, a terrorist attack and even a strike by the US commandos to get him forcibly released or killed.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDe ... =2/19/2011

[SSridhar]

Punjab fears Davis may be killed — even by CIA

So, the Punjabis are preparing the ground to do the deed and implicate the Americans.

[shiv]

abhishek_sharma - shocking! At 1:1.1 edge, what punitive action is India going to take? It turns Indian leaders from pusillanimous to prudent.

Arun it's like this. The theory says that an invading force must have a 2:1 or 3:1 superiority over the defending force. But 1:1 is fine for defence - because the attacking force does not enjoy even a 2:1 superiority.

This in fact (and I have put it in my ebook) is one of the reasons why India could (percentage wise) outspend Pakistan in "development" related spending while Pakistan struggled to maintain a 1:1 military parity with India. However - up until 1971 - Pakistani jernails foolishly convinced themselves that one Paki soldier is equal to 6 Indian soldiers and as Ayub famously said - the Hindu will run when hit at the right place and time.

Despite spending up to 40% of its budget on defence Pakistan could never achieve the 2:1 (let alone 3:1) superiority required for attack and occupation of land. India, with a 1:1 or slightly better ratio has had less trouble defending. However attacking and occupying Pakistan territory in a war that we start would be foolhardy given the current ratios unless we leave the China border naked. India has aimed to barely maintain a 1:1 parity with Pakistan with some left over against China.

[RajeshA]

The Raymond Davis case gets weirder and more interesting by the day!

The Pakistanis now think they have found the missing link between the apes and homo sapiens, and as sworn scientists, they are not going to let go of the evidence!

Published on Feb 19, 2011
By M K Bhadrakumar
US and Pakistan square off: Asia Times Online

The heart of the matter is that Pakistan has been wondering for a long time who it is who could be instigating the so-called "Pakistani Taliban" to inflict such bloody wounds on the Pakistani military and weaken and incrementally destabilize the Pakistani state.

It has been convenient to point the finger from time to time at the Indians, but when Pakistani state institutions were attacked, especially the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence, as precise targets, Islamabad would have had deeper suspicions, especially asa the close links between the former Afghan intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh and the US security establishment was a fact known to Pakistani agencies.

Conventional wisdom, especially among Indian propagandists, has been that what is happening inside Pakistan is a kind of "blowback" of terrorism. Some Indian pundits even claimed that the "serpent" that the Pakistani state nurtured over the years (namely, extremist outfits) for poisoning India's environs has now turned against the Pakistani state itself.

While this thesis has its seductive power, it is based on simplistic assumptions regarding the processes going on within Pakistan, especially the dialectics involving the vehicles of militancy and extremism and the state security apparatus. The Pakistani military and its highly efficient intelligence set-up could have concluded a long time ago that under the cover of the "Pakistani Taliban", all sorts of free-wheeling forces were at work. Washington is openly doing hero-worshipping of Amrullah Saleh even months after Afghan President Hamid Karzai sacked the spymaster almost as a prerequisite for improving Afghan-Pakistan relations.

Davis can most certainly provide the proverbial "missing link" to Pakistan to connect several dots on an intriguing chessboard. Conceivably, he will be sent back home at some point, but by then he may be a "burnt-out case" and Pakistan would have gained a far better understanding of the US's regional policies.

[RajeshA]

Punjab fears Davis may be killed — even by CIA

So, the Punjabis are preparing the ground to do the deed and implicate the Americans.

Considering that all parties are burning up all other bridges for an amicable solution, that may be a distinct possibility.

[A_Gupta]

http://tribune.com.pk/story/120785/floo ... tribution/

ISLAMABAD: Facing a shortfall of $548 million in expected donations, the World Food Program (WFP) has suspended its emergency food distribution in areas of Pakistan worst affected by the floods of 2010.
...
Much of the country has begun to recover from the flooding, leaving the WFP to end its relief efforts in most areas after February. However, parts of Sindh remain submerged and over 600,000 people in Balochistan have still not been able to return to their homes. The people in these areas, coupled with refugees from the conflict in the Mohmand tribal agency, will continue to receive assistance for the next two months.

[A_Gupta]

Despite spending up to 40% of its budget on defence Pakistan could never achieve the 2:1 (let alone 3:1) superiority required for attack and occupation of land. India, with a 1:1 or slightly better ratio has had less trouble defending. However attacking and occupying Pakistan territory in a war that we start would be foolhardy given the current ratios unless we leave the China border naked. India has aimed to barely maintain a 1:1 parity with Pakistan with some left over against China.

But such a war is advocated here explicitly or implicitly quite often. In the "speak softly and carry a big stick", it doesn't appear that India has a big stick.

[shiv]

Despite spending up to 40% of its budget on defence Pakistan could never achieve the 2:1 (let alone 3:1) superiority required for attack and occupation of land. India, with a 1:1 or slightly better ratio has had less trouble defending. However attacking and occupying Pakistan territory in a war that we start would be foolhardy given the current ratios unless we leave the China border naked. India has aimed to barely maintain a 1:1 parity with Pakistan with some left over against China.

But such a war is advocated here explicitly or implicitly quite often. In the "speak softly and carry a big stick", it doesn't appear that India has a big stick.

Arun there is a lot of both ignorance and just plain frustration at Pakistan here. I can understand the frustration - but correcting the ignorance is as far as we can go. Strength and weakness are emotive issues and ar often merely relative to something else but no one wants weakness.

The typical bully is a bully only because he works on those who are relatively weaker than him. Or he has a "godfather" who will protect his interests when he is in trouble. When a bully becomes a godfather to a weaker bully the results are tragic for many. But bullies are admired because they exude the feeling of strength.