Bharat Rakshak

Last post on previous thread:

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 4#p1087274

Please continue here.

why not do a special ops on the wanted list, and just keep quite? even the neighborhood dawood (example gerinomo) house should not know there a silenced bullet fired?

And come back home as if nothing happened, bury them in the same house if one wants. The only side effect is our babooze will start leaking out stating claims that their govt did it, when the elections come.

Report (Declan Walsh): US and Pakistan had secret agreement that US could unilaterally go in to kill/capture Osama if he is found inside Pakistan.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ma ... istan-deal

Where next for US-Pakistan relations?

Comments (39)
Osama Bin Laden, in a still from a video released by the US government Mr Obama said anyone who questioned the morality of killing Bin Laden "needs their heads examined"

After initial embarrassment that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in the Pakistani equivalent of a suburb of Sandhurst or West Point, almost in sight of an important intelligence service base, Pakistan's Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani has called for the criticism of his country to end.

That won't wash in the US. Indeed, the speech hasn't been covered on the domestic TV networks.

President Barack Obama says this is an important moment when Pakistan and the United States can decide to work more effectively together.

Others would be more blunt. They see it as a moment to keep up the media and congressional criticism to force the Pakistani government to flush out al-Qaeda supporters within its own ranks after this humiliation.

From the very start of his presidency, Mr Obama's administration has made it clear there is no such thing as an Afghan strategy. First it was an Af-Pak strategy. Then it became Pak-Af. Whatever you call it, there is an acknowledgement that Pakistan may be the more important country in the fight against al-Qaeda. Everyone in the know believes some members of the government and particularly the intelligence service are hand-in-glove with the jihadists and must have known what Bin Laden was up to.

Equally, they understand those members of the Pakistani government who are hostile to the extremists and fundamentalists are looking over their shoulders at an electorate not keen on those it sees as America's puppets.

Still, the US has given Pakistan $18bn in aid since 2002. One veteran member of the US Congress has said that before another dime is sent, Pakistan has to decide whose side it's on. Another has said there should be more strings attached.

Aid probably won't be cut but it adds up to more political pressure on Pakistan to come up with the goods in future.

While this debate will go on, the Mr Obama doesn't have to worry about some of the concerns expressed in the rest of the world about the legality or morality of killing Bin Laden. It has hardly been raised by anyone here in the US, and the president has said that anyone who questions taking the al-Qaeda leader out "needs their heads examined".

Did Dawood's construction firm build Osama's Abbottabad home?

Osama bin Laden’s palatial hideout in the Pakistan town of Abbottabad is designed on a module that’s used by the US military for constructing secret sheds and bunker-type homes for top-notch officers on war fields.

Highly placed sources in Indian intelligence reveal that the contract to outsource lands and develop such homes in Pakistan are allotted to one Safari constructions, which is allegedly owned by fugitive gangster Dawood Ibrahim Kaskar and his trusted lieutenant Chhota Shakeel.

In the previous thread, ramana wrote: Ravi K, You give too much credit for the pigs. The $50M will be shared all the way up to Kiyani as hafta. Msuhy's squeals on TV are per the playbook. He is the one who first created the deal for OBL.


Why dont you come up with your scenario?

I think anyone who has followed my posts on BRF would know that I am not one to reflexively take Unkil at his word. More to the point, I am often very, very skeptical of what Unkil says (particularly WRT 9/11, as I subscribe to the "LIHOP" theory). However, in this case, I am of the opinion that the likely scenario for the raid on OBL's compound happened more or less how Unkil has said it did.

I think, geostrategically speaking, it would have been more advantageous for Obama to have claimed after the fact, that they had sanction and help from the TSP for capturing OBL. It would have meant that they could have persisted along a 'business as ususal' trajectory, and things would have been a lot simpler for Unkil. Instead, it seems clear that Obama has taken the opposite tack, and not because it is easier, as it is quite the opposite. Remember, in the US, it is the Congress that holds the purse strings, and if Obama wants to cash-up the TSP, he's got to convince the Congress to authorize it -- and right now, for obvious reasons, the US Congress is calling for complete defunding of the TSP (notably a Texas Republican named 'Poe', who has publically used the phrase "not one more cent of aid to Pakistan"). This would represent a major complication for the continuation of Unkil's long-established game plan WRT the "AfPak Theatre".

I could get into a lot of detail, but I cannot at this time (owing to business obligations). Suffice it to say that I think the broad strokes of the operation were as described by Unkil, except for the following points.

1. The Americans very definitely had more helicopters invovled then 2-4. They probably would have had eight or more, including stealthy ones for the insertion team (one of which was wrecked), plus big Chinooks for the exfiltration, and smaller/attack helos for CAS, plus drones overhead, some armed for A2G, and others armed for A2A, just in case.

2. There are also reports of F-18s taking-off from bases in Afghanistan, and these would have been used to keep the TSPAF on the ground and out of the way.

3. I think speculation that the Pakistanis were restrained by prior threats, misses the point that this would have lost the initiative for the Americans. I rather think that the Pakistanis were more-or-less at gunpoint at the time of the raid, and had absolutely no prior knowledge of the raid until they were already looking at American crosshairs from the nasty end of the American's guns.

4. As for that $50M USD reward factoring into this; that's just plain wrong, because it hasn't been paid out, and there is no one with a justified claim on it. I think, had Obama wanted to cause more of a problem for the TSP, they would have said that the money is being held in escrow for the claimant, who is going to get a new life in an undisclosed location -- and then go and snatch some high-ranking ISI guy, so that it looks like he took the payout -- just to see the ISI tear their own walls down. Instead, the official word is that no such payout was made, nor will be made. There is now open talk of donating that cash to the victims of 9/11.

Still looking for that India today cartoon

sorry if I missed it

Ramana

The US just handed a strategic defeat for TSPA and showed the common kabila resident that the guards can't protect them any more. No longer sword of Islam or Saif ul Islam. They are a bunch of suars (pigs like in Orwell's 1984) playing with swords. Good for beating up local residents and stealing aid

I personally feel its the other way around. I dont think US handed a defeat to TSPA. I think the TSPA mards accepted abject defeat before even the first shot was fired. I think even slightest action by TSPA would have prompted a pull-out by the yanks but TSPA mards chickened out. The difference is important as that displays the state of mind of the brave TFTA mards. This was a game of brinkmanship and TSPA chickened out.

IMO this was more psychological warfare then covert ops.

Another great myth propagated by "informed observers" was the professional set-up of ISI and how its a military organization and has traditions etc., etc. All that is mud now that its in cahoots with Al Qaida and been caught with OBL in their laps so to speak.

Next its the martial TSPA which is the protector of Pakistan and the very idea of Pakistan is also gone with the undetected and unopposed raid on their military academy town with its three Army regimental centers.

Wonder how many other myths will bite the dust.

VinodTK wrote:Did Dawood's construction firm build Osama's Abbottabad home?

Osama bin Laden’s palatial hideout in the Pakistan town of Abbottabad is designed on a module that’s used by the US military for constructing secret sheds and bunker-type homes for top-notch officers on war fields.

Highly placed sources in Indian intelligence reveal that the contract to outsource lands and develop such homes in Pakistan are allotted to one Safari constructions, which is allegedly owned by fugitive gangster Dawood Ibrahim Kaskar and his trusted lieutenant Chhota Shakeel.

Wow so they even based the plans on US standard plans! so once the place was located no problem for US to make mock-up for practice.

Apparently a video was shown of the US helicopters flying in (in the media) for the raid. Could someone point me to a link?

Just an observation ...
IIRC Musharraf when he was the president was saying that the would prefer that US forces kill OBL.

Now the narrative has been shifted to a matter of H&D, and that TSPA should have been asked to take out OBL.

ManuT, It will help if you go back and add full form to abbreviations. As far as i can tell, Rudradev is trying to explain the US policy in Af-Pak since 1979. I don't see the gain in throwing in a few mea culpas for India. While at it throw a few hosannas to massa.

Let the ideas develop without throwing a few self blames. Why so early as the next couple of posts? Thoda dheeraj rako.

Sorry Ramanna Sir,
I missed the bus on on your request.

Regarding self blame
In the 90s, for more than a few months the entire presentations which required presence of number 1 and the then portfolio minstry number 42 had to be done in 2 languages. It was good that there was no crisis in those months, but there was no strategy that pre-empted a crisis. That's what I am suggesting.

Regards

The thread 2 title after the first obl thread reached 72, is so sweet:-

OBL killed Pakistan

Damn! I wish there was a fire fight between P0rkies and the US. Damn! Damn!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/10/world ... ml?_r=1&hp

U.S. Braced for Fights With Pakistanis in Bin Laden Raid\

WASHINGTON — President Obama insisted that the assault force hunting down Osama bin Laden last week be large enough to fight its way out of Pakistan if confronted by hostile local police officers and troops, senior administration and military officials said Monday.

In revealing additional details about planning for the mission, senior officials also said that two teams of specialists were on standby: One to bury Bin Laden if he was killed, and a second composed of lawyers, interrogators and translators in case he was captured alive. That team was set to meet aboard a Navy ship, most likely the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson in the North Arabian Sea.

Mr. Obama’s decision to increase the size of the force sent into Pakistan shows that he was willing to risk a military confrontation with a close ally in order to capture or kill the leader of Al Qaeda.


Such a fight would have set off an even larger breach with the Pakistanis than has taken place since officials in Islamabad learned that helicopters filled with members of a Navy Seals team had flown undetected into one of their cities, and burst into a compound where Bin Laden was hiding.

One senior Obama administration official, pressed on the rules of engagement for one of the riskiest clandestine operations attempted by the C.I.A. and the military’s Joint Special Operations Command in many years, said: “Their instructions were to avoid any confrontation if at all possible. But if they had to return fire to get out, they were authorized to do it.”

The planning also illustrates how little the administration trusted the Pakistanis as they set up their operation. They also rejected a proposal to bring the Pakistanis in on the mission.

About 10 days before the raid, Mr. Obama reviewed the plans and pressed his commanders as to whether they were taking along enough forces to fight their way out if the Pakistanis arrived on the scene and tried to interfere with the operation.

That resulted in the decision to send two more helicopters carrying additional troops. These followed the two lead Black Hawk helicopters that carried the actual assault team. While there was no confrontation with the Pakistanis, one of those backup helicopters was ultimately brought in to the scene of the raid when a Black Hawk was damaged while making a hard landing.

A lurker asked for opinion on this

My apologies for the disjointed thoughts, but I need help in ascertaining who knew, what, when for an article I am writing.

I think the GOTUS made a call and informed the GoP/PA immediately upon entering Pak sovereign space. But it did not tell them about the intended target. Most likely, GOTUS said the flight was a routine Bagram to Tarbela flight consisting of four US choppers. PAF radar caught the signature, but Tabela Dam airport has U.S. assests and possibly did not raise any undue suspicions amongst the PA. After having reached Tarbela, the Americans did the unthinkable. The choppers continued to fly for the next 40 miles (64 kms.) NE straight towards Abbottabad.

The transit time for helos from Tarbela to Abbotabad must have been approx. 15-20 minutes (40 mile, 64 kms). This crucial time-segment was absolute brilliant in terms of throwing PA into a tizzy! They were caught off-guard, trying to make sense how the US choppers overshot its intended landing at Tarbela. However, press reports suggests that PAF had indeed scrambled (or at least knew something was amiss and had started to mobilize) their jets during this crucial 15-20 minute period. Press reports also suggests that the PA had formed an inner cordon of Osama's compound almost at the time of commencement of the 40 minute raid by US navy seals.

Press reports suggest that the local police had started receiving numerous telephone calls starting at 12:30 a..m. local time on May 2nd and when they went to investigate, were asked by an already present PA to form an outer corridor. The date stamp on one newspaper is 1:31 a.m. dated May 2nd. The ops also began 12:30 a.m. local time. The local PA at best played a passive, logistical-support role in allowing the ops. to continue, something not easily acceptable, unless orders came from higher-up in the PA (it is like a local police station personnel allowing a bunch of hoodlums commit murder within their own jurisdiction, and to top it, throwing a protecive cordon or two at the same time!). In these crucial 15-20 minutes and about the time US Navy Seals commenced ops, the PA/ISID knew that Osama was the target! This also means that within these 15-20 minutes, something extremely important happened for the PA/ISI to have sat totally immobilized. What happened? (recall, it was a cooperative US-Pak effort to capture Indonesian terrorist earlier! This time, the Americans were demanding Paks to sit out!). From a PAPOV, a very significant change in the rules of engagement. Who and why would Americans want to do a solo ops. Most likely, at this point, the PA/ISI realized the Pakgig was up!).

So what happened in this 15-20 minute timeframe? I think - and this is important - is that the GOTUS made a second, very important telephone call to GoP/PA. The GOTUS threatened Pakistan with the Samson option! Stay still, do nothing, otherwise face total annihilation of Pakistan!

If I were Obama, these are the thoughts going through my mind. Just look at my options. I have actionable intelligence, the elections are approaching; already the right-wing zealots have caused irreparable damage; the economy is not doing the best either; besides, I would never want to face a Carter-like Iran type hostage situation were Pakistanis captured and took navy seal personnel as hostages, only to be paraded day in out, inflaming passion in the muslim minds, with an unending demand of ransom ranging from demanding ransom. Each of my soldiers is coming back - dead or alive. I cannot, and must NEVER allow Pakistanis to take a live (or a dead) hostage. There is no chance of error. PA MUST play ball. They will ONLY do so if there is credible Samson option backed with abilty to use it! Only then will, perhaps, PA/ISID comply. I have built my entire ops based on this premise. (Separately, this is where military historians will call this as America's finest hour and rate Obama's decision as one of the boldest Presidental decisions ever! In that, I salute my President!).

Consider again: After the 40 mts. ops. ended (and PAF/PA has been aware of at least 50-55 minutes), PAF STILL had sufficient time and reasons to counter-attack and down the American choppers carrying Osama and the treasure trove of information - so vital for Pakistan to cover its track - on its way back from Abbottabad to the Afghan boder, a distance of approx. 120 miles (195 kms). They did not because they sat motionless dreding the Samson option. Not competence, but impotence! In order to implement the Samson option, the GOTUS must have activated, operationalized with a stand-by order USMIL Centcom, Paccom assets ranging from navy (Diego Garcia, Arabian Sea), to the USAF and US army from Afghanistan, Europe, USA.

Another thought which lead me to think that the GOTUS faked the Bagram-Tarbela-Abbottabad flight route was to provide minimum time for PA/ISI to sneek away Osama. Even if some reports were to be believed that the PA clandestinley allowed Osama to be turned-in, they would at least have retrieved all of the computer hardware/software from the premises. That they were unable to do so suggests that they were completely taken by surprise and once having becoming aware, sat motionless unable to do anything but to reluctantly acquiesce to American demands.

Separately, did the GOTUS inform the GoI of the impending attack on Pakistan. I don't think so. The general prediliction of a trigger-itchy PA is to attack India on the slighest pretext. Recall Zinni holding PA chiel's hands at Isloo airport telling him it wasn't Indians attacking Pakistan, but US missiles flying over Pak on Talib tents. Which leads me to ponder. Given that Pakistan could attack India on a mistakn notion, are the Indians ready for, at best, a 10-15 minute lead-time when bombs start to drop in India. Scary indeed!

Please feel free to punch holes in the above thesis. TIA.

"I think the GOTUS made a call and informed the GoP/PA immediately upon entering Pak sovereign space. "

why would people speculate on such important thing without any evidence?

NY Times has more factual information than some desies speculation that Porkies knew about this. We will get more details as time goes on. the US was willing to fight their way out. Thats something.

surinder wrote: BO deftly ducked questions on Pakistan. Even after an event of such magnitude, he refused to say that he does not trust the Pakis. This indicates a reluctance to publicly implicate the Pakis, hence it indicates the continuance of the same old policies.

The fact that OBL was found living close to Islamabad is not surprising in any sense of the word, what would have been surprising, to me at least, is if US decided to ditch Pakistan (in any sense of the word) as a result of this OBL fiasco.

US pre-eminence today does not exist in vacuum, on the contrary this pre-eminence is based on the global status quo that exists. The point being if you were the pre-eminent power of this world, a large chunk of your efforts would be directed towards maintaining status quo (known as stablity in polite circles) where it suits and furthers your pre-eminence or encouraging change where ever it suits your purposes or pre-eminence.

To rid Pakistan off its terrorist hordes does serve to protect and enhance US pre-eminence as these terrorists have been well known to operate against US repeatedly, but to ditch that same Pakistan does not make sense to the US mainly because it will lead to either Pakistan's collapse (in worse case) or Pakistan's realizing that it has to make peace with India to continue. Either case (collapse or peace) would ultimately disturb the current global geo-political status quo by make it much much easier for India to extend its direct or indirect hegemony (through trade, bollywood, tourism, travel, etc) right into Pakistan and Afghanistan.

While US definitely does not have anything "against" India, as the pre-eminent power of the world, it definitely does not see extension of India's influence over Pakistan and Afghanistan as something that would be favorable to either US pre-eminence or interests (yet!).

A lot more things would have to go very seriously wrong in Pakistan for US to stop supporting Pakistan and allow India to extend its influence in Pak-Af region.

Regarding the above request for comment:

Najam Sethi has said other US air assets 5-6 F-18s were circling the Af-Pak border and an AWACS was also there controlling the battle. Once it became clear that it was the Yanks and not the Indians, there was little that Fizzle-Ya could do. The flying time from Sargodha for the FYas F-16s was approximately the same as what the Shornets would have taken. They would have been blown out of the sky if they tried to intercept the choppers. This is assuming the AWACS were not able to disable them with whatever super-secret stuff Uncle embed's in what it gifts.

So the cheer-haran was public and loud. Obama specifically emphasized that the units should have the fire-power to fight their way out. They had planned for contingencies like the chopper going down and any possibility of TSPA or Fizzle Ya interference.

All that talk about TSPA securing the area and forming a perimeter etc is pure H&D salvage operation. The town was asleep (it was past midnight). Even if some TSPA units finally reached the scene after the blasts etc., they would have been in no mood to engage the Americans. That is a problem which uniformed state actors have unlike non-uniformed non-state actors.

@ramana, to pass on to his lurker friend.

I think the GOTUS made a call and informed the GoP/PA immediately upon entering Pak sovereign space. But it did not tell them about the intended target. Most likely, GOTUS said the flight was a routine Bagram to Tarbela flight consisting of four US choppers. PAF radar caught the signature, but Tabela Dam airport has U.S. assests and possibly did not raise any undue suspicions amongst the PA. After having reached Tarbela, the Americans did the unthinkable. The choppers continued to fly for the next 40 miles (64 kms.) NE straight towards Abbottabad.

Plausible theory, but they could equally have filed a flight plan direct to some US base in Afghanistan that they've followed in the past and then suddenly turned right over a point close to Abbotabad and done the ol' flying nap of the earth trick to avoid radar (which was a tactic the USAF used in 1990's Desert Storm campaign to take out all of Iraq's early warning radars and start the Gulf war). That way, PAF would have very little time to react as the helos could be there in a few minutes instead of 15-20 minutes. Or they could have started the flight with a group that consists of many more choppers including a few larger decoy ones. At the right moment, a few of them break off from formation and fly in low towards abbotabad, while the remaining larger decoy ones continue their normal route as per their filed flight plan to avoid suspicion (IIRC, Israelis used some similar tactic for Osirak, where there was a large jet liner flying with F-16s very close in formation so they looked like one unit). And one of those decoy choppers could have flown back to help when one of the others crashed.

Press reports also suggests that the PA had formed an inner cordon of Osama's compound almost at the time of commencement of the 40 minute raid by US navy seals.

Which press report? Ask him to provide links.

Press reports suggest that the local police had started receiving numerous telephone calls starting at 12:30 a..m. local time .... The local PA at best played a passive, logistical-support role in allowing the ops. to continue, something not easily acceptable, unless orders came from higher-up in the PA.

Another explanation: they refused to go out in the middle of the night, seeing that they weren't the ones under attack. Paki troops have previously shown reluctance to go out and involve themselves in local group fights. Again, links to press reports here saying that they actually got phone calls would be useful.

And with F-18's flying around in plain radar view on the Afghan border, PAF would have been wise not to scramble.

VikramS,

No question about it. US "betrayal" of sorts, going it alone and not informing TSP, and TSP herself bamboozled that their biggest asset with all their investment went kaputz is a humongous loss of leverage & etch-and-dee. Whatever maybe India's travials with TSP, whatever maybe US's perfidy in ignoring TSP terror against India, I am having a ball looking at TSP's humiliation.

However, press reports suggests that PAF had indeed scrambled (or at least knew something was amiss and had started to mobilize) their jets during this crucial 15-20 minute period.

Sir in a war-like awareness scenario the scramble time is generally 3-5(give or take 2) mins from the moment the siren goes of. Considering the fact that the air-bases wwere not expecting anything from the east and even from the west even if there is an intrusion it would ahve taken atleast 10 mins to have identified the threat and prepare for any action and that too at 12:30 AM(dont know how many pilots were sloshed by that time). It is usual bravado by unnamed Paki AF officials that they were ready/up in air/had the helis in their crosshairs with their super duper bandars/mirage (Roman numerals)/had the heli pilots by the scruff of their necks.

Now coming to the PA throwing a cordon, this is I think another piece of bravado, PA as we know would have asked for baksheesh to let the seals go, never mind they would have been killed but PA would have done some begging had they gotten to the stage of cordoning the area. Why is it that that live blogger didnt blog about the cordon thrown by PA. And all this bluster about nuking it to stone-age is not all that easy, I mean only a foolish paki can think of nuking someone even korean dong dong generals think ten times before they bring up the option, so hard to imagine that Khan dada was ready with that option

The Samson option (that is actually the Israeli name IIRC) is not credible- Pakistan wouldn't buy it even as a bluff.

Vietnam and Korea both lacked use of nuclear weapons of any kind - and both were non-nuclear nations backed by nuclear powers. Pakistan is a nuclear power of its own. That option isn't something that gets bandied about lightly, it has no credibility that way.

SaiK wrote:The thread 2 title after the first obl thread reached 72, is so sweet:-

OBL killed Pakistan

Typo or deliberate?

After operation Geronimo, USS Carl Vinson moves back to pacific. Ie. from 5th fleet (Persian Gulf region) to 7th fleet (Pacific). So USA had a whole Carrier Strike Group supporting any eventuality in operation geronimo.

Source - http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=60234

"We have completed, in fine fashion, our operational tasking in protecting our men and women on the ground,"

Found this interesting from African (Kenyan) newspaper....

Canonise this man now

Osama was found in Pakistan. It had to be Pakistan. Pakistan is not a country, if we were to be completely honest.

It is India, with a crescent where the Wheel of Ashoka should be. Pakistan is a religious sentiment plotted on a map.

It was created under the delusion that Muslims and Hindus cannot co-exist, and its birth only exacerbated religious tensions in a volatile region.

(I wonder why India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan all played in the Cricket World Cup semis when they are essentially the same country).

UBanerjee wrote:Found this interesting from African (Kenyan) newspaper....

Canonise this man now

Osama was found in Pakistan. It had to be Pakistan. Pakistan is not a country, if we were to be completely honest.

It is India, with a crescent where the Wheel of Ashoka should be. Pakistan is a religious sentiment plotted on a map.

It was created under the delusion that Muslims and Hindus cannot co-exist, and its birth only exacerbated religious tensions in a volatile region.

(I wonder why India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan all played in the Cricket World Cup semis when they are essentially the same country).

I have spent years and years "studying" Pakistan and I still could not come up with a better description than this. Ramana wanted a ten point description of Pakistan. Here is a one point summary of Pakistan

Pakistan is a religious sentiment plotted on a map.

Surya wrote:Still looking for that India today cartoon

sorry if I missed it

It was posted in the previous avatar of the page.

Now it is archived in the Mil humour thread as well.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 6#p1085276

not sentiment though, "bigotry". Pakistan is religious bigotry plotted on a map.

UBanerjee wrote:Found this interesting from African (Kenyan) newspaper....

Canonise this man now

Osama was found in Pakistan. It had to be Pakistan. Pakistan is not a country, if we were to be completely honest.

It is India, with a crescent where the Wheel of Ashoka should be. Pakistan is a religious sentiment plotted on a map.

It was created under the delusion that Muslims and Hindus cannot co-exist, and its birth only exacerbated religious tensions in a volatile region.

(I wonder why India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan all played in the Cricket World Cup semis when they are essentially the same country).

Some more notable quotes from the article

Pakistan has split in two since its formation and has gone on to become the most Middle Eastern country on earth despite being in the Indian sub-continent.

It has all the problems of the average Middle Eastern country but none of the oil. It harboured the most atrocious mastermind of our age.

No one would touch Osama with a bargepole, even North Korea would think twice before inviting him over. It had to be the country that need not have existed in the first place and is riven with problems it can barely solve.

It had to be the country which receives billions in aid from America to combat him and his followers. Pakistan has lost one of its greatest foreign exchange earners.

TSP to allow access of 3 of OBL wives to US. That is just bad on so many levels.

A few observations.
1. It is possible for a group of helos to fly low and fast and evade the radar for most of the distance to reach abbotabad.
Add to this the fact that these helos probably had stealth features, RAM coatings, possibly radar evading shaping. For silencing, the rotor blades were shaped at the tips (like in the EH-101s and the Silent Hawk pictures that we've seen).
The reason why it is possible to fly from Bagram to Abbottabad undetected is because there is no major airbase in the hills there, and consequently no radar stations there.


The major airbases west to east are along a line at the foot hills, and they are Peshawar, Risalpur, Kamra, Chaklala.
There are Radar sites are in Peshawar, Cherat Hills, Risalpur, Kamra, Chaklala (Islamabad). The radar on top of Cherat Hills would be the big daddy long ranged one, keeping an eye over the entire area. The rest of the major radar sites are at Sakesar, Kallar Kahar and Kirana Hills, and are way south of this area.

Again these radar sites are intended to provide cover for the eastern sector aimed at India, and will have major blind spots looking north-west. Perhaps only the Cherat Hills radar, and the Kamra AFB radar would look north and west at the Af-Pak border area. Once the hills start up north, there are several blind spots in the valleys, and because of the earth's curvature, the line of sight gets disrupted.

The white arrows mark the areas where the hills begin in the north. The area north of this has numerous valleys and hills - ideal for low flying aircraft to disappear into.

One more thing about Pakistan's Radars. I wonder if a technically superior military power like the US which would know both frequencies and algorithms of pakistani radar could jam them in a very specific manner so that they would just be blind in certain directions, and the Pakistanis wouldn't suspect anything. Usually indiscriminate jamming of all frequencies leaves several artifacts on the radar screen - although the radar is jammed, but the defenders are aware that the radar has been jammed. Any experts want to pitch in here? As it is, most of these Radars are US / Western supplied ones, except the chinese ones with the SAMs.

2. Pakistan has F-16s armed with BVR AIM 120 missiles based at PAF Mushaf, Sargodha, which is about 240 Kms from Abbottabad, and about 300 Kms from the Af-Pak border around Jalalabad.
I don't expect that these F-16s would have been capable of intercepting, much less approaching american aircraft.
There was no way the PAF would dare to take on the USAF, when they don't even dare to take on pilotless drones!

Pakistan has an HQ-2 SAM site east of Rawalpindi, but again that would not have been able to track or target the helos up north.

3. I am sure that the US had an AWACS up in the air and that too well within Pakistani Airspace, in addition to fighter aircraft equipped with both air to air and ground attack ordinance in separate groups.
Any commando raid these days, and specially one of such magnitude would probably have a live UAV SAR mode feed, back to the command area in Bagram and in Pentagon. It is possible that there would be multiple UAVs in the Air.

4. I don't think that the US has to stoop so low so that the POTUS has to threaten Nuclear attack to a puny military adversary like Pakistan!

I don't think that an overt nuclear threat was made in so many words. There is no reason to not believe John Brennan and Leon Panetta when they say that Pakistan was informed only once the US forces were out of Pakistani air space.

Halfway through the raid, the Pakistani military leadership must have been informed that the area around Kakul, and later on that, the area around OBL's safehouse was under attack, and there were helicopters in the air. They must have realized that the US has attacked that site. Since India wouldn't attack out of the blue, and an air raid meant that OBL's other enemies (and there are groups who would love to see OBL dead - the northern alliance for example) wouldn't have access to aircraft.

The US would have gotten in touch with the Pakistanis:
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of staff - Pakistani COAS
CIA chief - ISI chief
US Ambassador - Geelani and Zardari (The next morning)
To inform them about the action.

5. Hyperspectral Imagers? Wouldn't that have told the SEALs that a six foot tall figure seems to be present on the third floor in such and such room?

I think that the initial landing party landed on stealth and 'reduced noise' helos at several spots on the compound - the roof of the main building and the ground around it and on top of the outhouse. The team on the roof did a top down approach, the team on the compound went into the building making its way upstairs, and one team took out the outhouse, where they came under fire and they promptly killed both OBL's courier and his wife. If there was a lookout in the compound who was visible, he would have been taken out well before the team landed.

There would have to be another team to do the cordon, and helos in the air to help enforce the cordon. The initial raid would be silent and swift, and would most likely have been over in a few minutes, the numbers being thrown about 3 -5 minutes seems about right. This is because there was no resistance at all except the man in the outhouse who managed to fire some rounds off. OBL was taken out probably by the time the man in the outhouse was firing the rounds.

6. Local residents mention a few things:
a) There was a power cut at that time - That town is undergoing power cuts like every other pakistani town for about 10-12 hours every day or more! The CIA team on the ground would have a good idea of the times of the power cuts in that area.
b) The locals heard several helicopters buzzing low overhead. One individual describes hearing 4 low intensity bangs in quick succession followed by one big bang. Probably the helo being destroyed with explosives and the fuel tank blowing up in the end.
c) No one describes the sound of gunfire! Probably because the SEALS had silenced weapons, and the guard only managed to fire a few rounds.
d) There was no Pakistani army or local police on the site until after the attack was over! There are several individuals corroborating this fact. In fact, true to form the Pakistani police was the last to arrive, and they found a Pak Army cordon in place when they arrived.

One can just imagine the scenes in PMA Kakul when helos and explosions were going off just outside the perimeter. Utter confusion must have reigned, and people must have been running helter skelter all over the place. The security must have first tried to ascertain if the PMA itself was under attack, and so a team would have had to go in the general direction of the noise along the perimeter wall. They would also have rushed teams to secure the GOC, and senior officer's residences, and rushed teams all around the perimeter and guards around the Gentleman Cadet Hostels.
One wonders if they would have been able to mount an effective raiding party to take out 70-80 odd NVG equipped US Navy Seals in the middle of the night - and that too in 40 odd minutes!

The SEALs initial concern probably was to remain undetected until the first shot was fired, they probably had a good idea of Pakistan's response times, and they planned to be long gone before the pakistanis could mobilize. The operation itself turned out to be a cakewalk it seems.

the only way op could have run in trouble was if a couple of M113/small tanks had been posted in Kakul cantt and under a sharp minded commander been motored to the scene. their HMGs and cannons would have caused plenty of damage even to the orbiting helis.

Talking about that even some Shoulder fired rockets could have done some damage or did they?

Would have been the worst thing that pak would have done then. Whole blame of killing osama would have falled on ISI/pak army head

The operation itself turned out to be a cakewalk it seems.


correct

80 odd highly trained men against 5 men - it was a cakewalk in spite of the hype

the most gruelling part was getting there and getting out and that was really intel and the airborne part of the ops

Singha wrote:the only way op could have run in trouble was if a couple of M113/small tanks had been posted in Kakul cantt and under a sharp minded commander been motored to the scene. their HMGs and cannons would have caused plenty of damage even to the orbiting helis.

This might explain in part why President Obama thought the success rate (includes bringing seals back alive after OBL killling) was only 45%. 30-40 min can be considered reasonable time for action on the helis by the tanks stationed in Kakul.

Ex-commando to replace bin Laden?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42965337/ns ... bin_laden/

Kashmiri was at one point a member of the Pakistani military, serving as a commando in a Special Services Group that was once tasked with training Afghan mujahedeen to fight the Soviets.

I hope it is the Kashmiri who replaces OBL. His profile needs to be raised.

I hope this guy doesn't get killed before I finish my novel for BRF where he is a central character.
On second thought, Maybe he can die tonight itself stuffing on his on puke. I couldn't care less.