Serial Blasts in Mumbai

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 15 Jul 2011 00:27

Please for the love of god put a caption as to what the link is about. Do you want a warning? Once or twice is forgivable but a pattern gets irritating.

Ramanaji Don't you think i deserve at least a 30 seconds of time to realize my mistake. It could have been inadvertent.

Pranay · Post by **Pranay** » 15 Jul 2011 00:46

... and once again the city i was born in is hit.

A friend had just passed one of the blast sites a bare 10 minutes before the explosion, the latest addition to other friends and relatives having had a close brush with death in Mumbai's long list of terrorist attacks.

The next few days will bring out in stark detail the quality (or lack of) of leadership at the local, state and federal levels.

What will India do?? What has it done so far??? And how many more Indians will die before any action is taken??

Many a politician has expressed the same old homilies... and the people keep on getting killed like flies.

... and the likes of Dawood Ibrahim, Chhota Shakeel, Tiger Memon, etc. continue to do their thing openly across the border.

Declare open season on these characters, liquidate them in one fell swoop and the message will go out loud and clear to the real brains behind these attacks in Mumbai in particular and India at large.

... having been away from Mumbai/India for most of my life in no way lessens the sense of personal violation and outrage.

My deep condolences to the families of all the victims of this latest outrage... some day India will have a leader capable of redeeming the loss of their loved ones. Some day...

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 15 Jul 2011 00:48

I was born in Hyderabad and lived in India for 10 years. I now live abroad and know perfectly well the ground situation in India, because I conduct business with India and Indian government agencies.

To convince the governing bodies, we need to conduct vast market research and identify the needs of Indians to create products which are useful for India.

I travel to India every year, the only thing holding me back from moving there is the latency in the technical work I do and adoption in society inside India.

I will be perfectly honest with you, I'm not going to give you hypocritical romanticized ideas of patriotism and valor. I work and provide services for a country other than India, however the point I want to convey to anyone who is willing to listen, unless you put a stake in the ground and demand self respect, no one will give you any.

India needs to accept, learn and demand it's sovereignty. It is too hypocritical for India to expect another country to slap Pakistan's hand whenever it commits mischief. Although we are the hot girl in the room at the moment, that every one is willing to court, and Pakistan is the jealous stalker looking to throw acid in our face; we need to get our shit together and rise above this petty drama. Either end the nuisance directly, or carry some pepper spray.

Technology is the pepper spray, playing guys courting you against each other is diplomacy, and slapping the culprit across the face is war. You have to strategise and act accordingly. To make the right decision at the right time, you need information (gossip).

BijuShet wrote:Sravanji were you born and raised in India or are you of Indian origin but raised outside India? You may choose to ignore my query if you think this is too personal. I would like to respond to your suggestions of crowd sourcing solutions only after I know a little more about you. IMHO, sometimes one needs to be close to the problem to identify the correct solution that would work.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 Jul 2011 00:49

Attackers wanted to create havoc, kill people -Former R&AW chief C D Sahay decodes the Mumbai blasts in a conversation with Vicky Nanjappa

"We have been facing such attacks many times in the past. The 26/11 attacks only increased the decibel level. The response mechanism may have improved, but then again that is not the only way to deal with such issues. It has to be intelligence driven. The fight has to begin right from the ranks of a constable. Our state police branches are still not up to the mark and this needs to improve. Inputs in whatever form is not being taken seriously. The police still do not work actively on bits and pieces of information. The police cannot expect to be spoon fed from New Delhi all the time," he says.

"I would also draw your attention to the response by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. He constantly said, 'Keep me posted.' This is a very weak message that the PM has sent out. Look at the manner in which (US President Barack) Obama sat at the control room during the operation to eliminate (Al Qaeda leader) Osama bin Laden. Even during the Parliament attack it was our the PM (Atal Bihari Vajpayee) who led the discussion. He did not sit back and seek inputs."

"The seriousness of the government," Sahay adds, "is reflected in the prime minister's acts and statements."

nikhilarora · Post by **nikhilarora** » 15 Jul 2011 00:57

ramana wrote: If you really want do something then setup a few facebook pages and update them often.

- nexus of terrorist-criminals-polticians
- page to report unnusual activities by common people

Make them simple to load on smart phones.

Get together with some experts and setup a server so people can get feeds to their computers/phones/SMSes

Incoming is free in India right?

If you note both are within your capability and immediately useful.

Thank you sire, I will start to work on it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jul 2011 00:58

Quite a detailed articel from Pioneer:

Wired body fuels theories

Wired body fuels theories

July 15, 2011 12:49:24 AM

TN RAGHUNATHA/PNS | Mumbai/New Delhi

It may be suicide attack, hints NSG DG; ATS chief says too early to draw inferences

The Centre is not ruling out the use of suicide bombers in the Mumbai terror attacks, which, it says, could be the handiwork of a homegrown outfit like the Indian Mujahideen. The probe, so far, has revealed the use of nearly 2 kg IEDs, and involvement of well-trained persons.

“The Director General of NSG has informed that a body with circuit (of cables wrapped around it) has been found from near one of the explosion sites. We are not ruling out anything,” Union Home Secretary RK Singh told the media. Singh was replying to a question about the possibility of the involvement of a suicide bomber in the blasts.

While not disagreeing with the Home Secretary, Secretary (Internal Security) in the Home Ministry UK Bansal said there could be several reasons for finding wires on the body of one of the victims. “One of the possibilities is that the person concerned might have been standing near the bomb and as a result some parts of the bomb embedded it (body). There is another possibility that it could have been planted on his body. But as of now we are not in a position to say anything,” he said.

Asked whether the body had been identified, he said that some of the bodies were mangled beyond recognition and the Mumbai Police was trying to identify them. Bansal said that some Indian Mujahideen militants who were arrested recently were being interrogated.

Talking about the probe, the Home Secretary said sophisticated IED tweaked with ammonium nitrate and electronic detonators were used in the blasts. Revealing that the blast at Opera House was the most powerful of the three, Singh said that 11 people were killed and 73 injured when the IED placed below a garbage can exploded.

The blast at Zaveri Bazaar left six people dead and 50 others injured while the IED at Kabootar Khana in Dadar was a low-intensity one in which 10 people were injured. The IEDs at Zaveri Bazaar and Dadar were hidden near a motorcycle under an umbrella and on a bus shelter respectively, said Singh.

Almost 1 kg of ammonium nitrate was used to carry out the blast in Opera House, 400-600 grams were used at Zaveri Bazaar and 200 grams in Dadar.

Hours after Union Home Minister P Chidambaram confirmed that the three explosions were not remote-triggered ones, Maharashtra ATS chief Rakesh Maria, who is spear-heading the joint investigations, disclosed that timer-devices had been used to trigger the blasts, but it would take some time to arrive at a “collective opinion” about the nature of the device. “Samples have been collected from the three sites,” he said.

“Prima facie it appears ammonium nitrate has been used. Because of the rain it would take a little longer to get details of the other aspects of the devices,” Maria said.

“We have formed almost a dozen teams consisting of two officers each to probe various angles. We are also being very closely assisted by the Central agencies. Forensic experts and officers of the Central agencies are in the city to assist us,” said Maria, who had in the past cracked the 1993 Mumbai serial terror attacks. He was also the chief investigator in the 26/11 attacks and twin blasts at Gateway of India and Zaveri Bazaar in August 2003.

Asked about the possible involvement of Indian Mujahideen in the blasts, Maria said, “It has not even been 24 hours since the attack. Investigation has just begun. We are not confining to any one group. All possibilities are being examined. We are not targeting any particular group or module. As the investigation progresses, the angles will narrow down, and we would be able to identify the group.”

“All-out efforts are being made to detect the case and bring the accused to book. We would like to assure you that no effort would be spared...have faith and trust (in us)....so far (in Mumbai)....no case has gone undetected. No matter where the accused are, we would identify them and bring them to book,” Maria said.

Queried whether the investigators had got leads as to who could be behind the three blasts, Maria said: “The probe has just started....we are not confining ourselves to any particular line of investigations. We are examining and looking at all possibilities and all angles.”

He said that CCTV footage from all the three locations have been secured, however, he added that examination of the footage is a long-drawn process. “It is less than 24 hours and we cannot rule out anything,” he added.

In Delhi, the MHA officials said “as of now” it has no ground to link the terror attack with any elements across the border. “As of now there is no ground to believe that there is any link of anyone from across the border,” Bansal said.

Asked who could be behind the blasts, Bansal said as of now the investigators were not in a position to tell with certainty which militant group was involved in it.

“As of now there is no lead about any particular group. That is why we are probing into all angles and all groups are under radar and everyone is considered as a suspect. A few Indian Mujahideen militants arrested some time ago are being interrogated,” he said.

“We are also looking into those groups which carried out similar blasts in the past. We are confident that some lead would emerge soon,” Bansal said. On the possibility of the involvement of underworld in the terror act since such groups were reportedly active in the metropolis in the recent past, Bansal said, “All angles are being probed.”

So how many IEDs were there? Three that exploded and any unexploded ones?

NH4NO3 based stuff means local materials. But it needs a booster to set it off. So what was the booster? And whats an electronic detonator?

The latter two items mean its not a casual gang but a trained terrorist bum making squad.

And so far its less than two Kgs material was used.

Nightwatch comments:

India: According to the Ministry of Home Affairs, on 13 July in Mumbai, three coordinated attacks using home-made bombs killed 21 and injured 141people. Because of the close timing of the blasts, "we infer that this was a coordinated attack by terrorists," Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said.

India's preliminary investigations into the blasts found that seven improvised explosive devices were used and were wrapped in cloth bags and tiffin boxes. The Home Affairs Ministry said that the Indian Mujahidin is the most probable perpetrator.

Comment: The style of the attacks was amateurish compared to the sensational November 2008 attacks in Mumbai. The Indian Mujahedin appears to be a home grown Indian Muslim operation, aided by and possibly a proxy for Pakistan-based Islamic terrorists, but operating more or less autonomously.

The immediate effect of this attack will be to focus official investigations against the Indian Islamic population which exceeds 120 million people, rather than against Pakistan. Indian pressure on Pakistan to do more to restrain terrorists will ease for a time. Nevertheless, the involvement of Pakistani terrorists almost certainly will emerge.

One likely casualty of this attack will be the recent resumption of talks between Indian and Pakistani senior civil servants, which was just getting started again.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 15 Jul 2011 01:00

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2 ... 57683.html

Official data indicates the Mumbai police have a vacancy rate of 40 per cent at the lower-level police officers, including that of the assistant police inspectors and police sub-inspectors. It is the lower level police officers who are directly responsible for the law and order situation.

With the available police officials, Maharashtra’s (the state of which Mumbai is the capital) policeman to 100,000 population ratio stands at a poor 166. While police deployment in Mumbai would fare better than the rest of Maharashtra, the figures would be no where close to the 500 plus prescription by the United Nations. National capital Delhi, in comparison, has a much better ratio at 362, compared to Mumbai.

Inquiries into the 2008 Mumbai attacks had revealed a lot about the organizational weaknesses and a overwhelming sense of operational lethargy in the police department. Very little appears to have changed since then. Reports now indicate that the Mumbai police authorities have procrastinated a January 2011 proposal to install 5,000 CCTV cameras in the city.

Since the Mumbai terrorist attacks of November 2008, India has invested a lot in augmenting its anti-terror capacities. Each year, budgetary allocation for the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has increased. It created the National Investigative Agency (NIA) in 2009, within months of the 2008 attacks. Within the same time, it created hubs for the anti-terrorist commandos, the National Security Guards (NSG) in its mega cities.

It amended its anti-terror law, the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) providing it with some teeth to deal with terror crimes. It put in place an intelligence collation mechanism at the state levels. For the financial year 2010-11, the NIA received a whooping budgetary increase of over Rupees 160 million (approximately $3.55 million) to reach an annual allocation of Rupees 550 million (approximately $12 million).

However, while its post-terror investigative capacities might have received a boost as a result, its capacity to prevent attacks remains a suspect. Collection of both Human Intelligence (HUMINT) and Technical Intelligence (TECHINT) leaves a lot to be desired. Even 30 months after the November 2008 Mumbai attacks, projects like the National Intelligence Grid (NATGRID) and the National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC) remain unimplemented. Bureaucratic hurdles, turf wars between various departments and ministries continue to slow down India’s preparations to revamp its counter-terror architecture.

It is not difficult to conclude that the 13 July 2011 attack was a result of these collective failures. Mumbai was simply lucky to have escaped major terrorist attack since November 2008. And suddenly the luck ran out.

(Dr. Bibhu Prasad Routray is an independent analyst based in Singapore and has previously been Deputy Director, India’s National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS). He can be reached at bibhuroutray@gmail.com or on Twitter @BibhuRoutray)

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 15 Jul 2011 01:03

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 229588.cms

Investigators who were earlier able to work out some of the serious cases by listening in to the excited jehadi chatter in the aftermath of terror attacks are struck by the complete radio silence after Wednesday's attack on Mumbai. The absence of emails: IM's calling card till 2008, is also seen as a switch of tactic devised to dodge the investigators. Moreover, the terrorists have settled for plots which are modest in nature and can be implemented swiftly, reducing the time needed for preparations as well as minimizing risk.

"It seems they have gotten smarter", a senior counter-terror operative told TOI, as he did not rule out the possibility of investigators hitting the dead-end again. He also said that this is part of the catch-up that the law enforcers are forced to play as they fight a shadowy enemy who has the advantage of choosing the target, weapon and time of attack. But the challenge for the agencies also indicates the risk that cities potentially face till agencies wizen up to the terrorist's new tricks.

Said an intel veteran: "What we need is one breakthrough to unravel the whole thing." He pointed out that Indian Mujahideen remained elusive for long. "But we worked out the Ahmedabad case and that helped us solve cases of blasts in Jaipur and Delhi, leading to the elimination of the IM commander Atif Ameen at Batla House in the Capital," he said.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jul 2011 01:04

Interesting headline!

PM and Sonia give healing touch to Mumbaikars

What did they say or do that would heal the wonds of Mumbaikars?

"Keep me posted"?

Maharashtra government has already announced free treatment for all the injured.

Its the least they could do haivng failed to protect them.

I guess next Rahulbaba will sip juice with the victims.

BTW, Has Ind Muj claimed the attack? So far they always send an e-mail from a hacked address to papers everytime they are involved.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 15 Jul 2011 01:04

Pakistan will be suspect until evil in its midst is rooted out

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 15 Jul 2011 01:29

What is strange is, unkil & uknistan wants to blame pakis & L-E-Teee while GOI wants to blame IM.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jul 2011 01:37

Maybe they have been slapped US and UK so much when pointing to TSP that they decided to swallow the problem.

If you think about it if TSP gets blamed its the US and UK that will exert pressure and get concessions from TSP. What will India get?

Time for another cartoon.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jul 2011 01:39

TOI has a bunch of inane headlines. Not worth posting.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jul 2011 01:48

PTI asks:

Will Mumbai's triple blasts be solved?

Press Trust of India / New Delhi July 14, 2011, 20:36 IST

Will the triple blasts in Mumbai be another addition to the array of unresolved cases?

Five attacks across various cities of the country since 26/11 terror attack on Mumbai have remained unsolved for investigators despite the fact that three of these cases are being handled by National Investigation Agency.

The Februrary 13 German Bakery blast in Pune, bombings at Chinnaswamy Stadium in Chennai on April 17 just hours before an IPL match, the shooting incident of Jama Masjid in September last year, low-intensity blast outside Delhi High Court and Varanasi Ghat bombing in December which killed a two-year-old girl are yet to be unravelled.

The NIA, which was set up by Home Ministry to probe terror-related cases across the country, does not have any concrete success to show for in three of these cases handled by it -- Jama Masjid shooting, Varansi Ghat bombing and Chinnaswamy Stadium bombing.

The remaining two-- High Court blast and German Bakery blast -- have been investigated by the local police.

Maharashtra Police has filed a charge sheet in German Bakery blast case in December last year making seven people accused. One person has been arrested in this case but ATS had not been able to prove conclusively his involvement in the incident.

The probe into these cases has revealed that all of them are linked and carried out by suspected members of banned Indian Mujahideen but do not have hard evidence to bring out their culpability.

However, a source in the Home Ministry say IM may be trying to re-group and these acts may be their efforts in that direction.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 15 Jul 2011 01:52

devesh wrote:what is the possibility of increasing armed forces' strength to 2.5 million? we have 1.3 billion people. our society needs to be more militarized.

devesh ji,

the reason we could not have compulsory military training for all men and voluntary for women was a lack of resources, but as resources in India become abundant, 18 months or so compulsory training should be seriously concerned for all men.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Jul 2011 01:54

guys can someone post vicky nanjappa's articles. IB seems to be updating him on a regular basis.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 15 Jul 2011 01:59

RajeshA wrote:It was somewhat disturbing for the ISI, that Kasab got caught in Mumbai 26/11/2008 Terror Attacks.

This time the ISI is trying to build up a scenario, that a local outfit is responsible for these attacks, that Indian Mujahideen (IM) is attacking because of local grievances. As such they have used ammonium nitrate in the bombs - sort of starting small. It is important that they establish that a local group is responsible. Starting small using some explosive available in the local market, helps creating that impression. The Govt. too may play along.

<OT>
Ammonium Nitrate with Fuel Oil ( ANFO ) is not ordinary low level explosive, it is classfied as High Explosive. Only way it is different form other more potent Nitro Glycerin (NG) based High Explosive is that it can't be exploded by a blasting cap (detonator) alone it also requires a primar charge (which could NG based plastic explosives etc.) But once ANFO explodes the energy output is in the category of High Explosive. Energy output of the blast can be further increased by adding powdered metallic oxidizing agents.

Take a look at the damage done to the federal building in the 1995 Okhlahoma bombing in which Timothy McVeigh had used Ammonium Nitrate Fuel Oil mixture.

IIRC 160+ people died in this blast.
</OT>

ADMIN: It is probably OT here and can be moved to appropriate thread or deleted.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jul 2011 02:19

shyamd wrote:guys can someone post vicky nanjappa's articles. IB seems to be updating him on a regular basis.

Link to Vicky Nanjappa's blog:

http://vickynanjapa.wordpress.com/

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jul 2011 02:28

He is not correct about Molotov Cocktail. That was bottle of petrol/gasolene with a rag as the fuse developed by Finns agaisnt Soviet Tanks just before WWII.

Calling NAFo bomb as MC is a misnomer. The FO acts as the carbon product to the Oxygen provided in NH4NO3.

Adding a hygroscopic (water absorbing) additive to the fertilizer will remove it as an explosive source. Non-Hygroscopic NH4NO3 for blasting purposes can be cntrolled by permits etc.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 15 Jul 2011 02:35

Ramana Ji, am a bit surprised at your reaction. I didn't market anything. I don't have a product, just some ideas on tackling security and safety issues manifested in a few patents and demonstrated working examples. Neither is inventing things my full time job. I worked (on my own) on using technology to attempt to nullify/ detect terrorist activity long back and here only offered a solution that could enhance safety and security issues to a working platform. It's sort of you recommending a book on Amazon for someone to read to understand a particular issue. I don't think there was any malafide intention here at all. People here are offering many solutions: Not talking to Pakistan, specific strikes on targets inside etc, all i did was discuss a technology aspect to possibly mitigating the problem. However out of deference to you, have deleted the posts. Would request you to kindly delete my post you quoted too.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jul 2011 02:38

You with over 1700 posts could discuss such ideas elsewhere right? And it was about some thing you patented. So its not a simple recommending technology solutions.
Thanks for considering my request. Will delete mine too.

BTW one of the admins reported them.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 15 Jul 2011 02:53

Ramana Ji, thanks. I do understand Moderator pressure in maintaining thread decorum. But as an aside if i can leave my full time job, put in my own money to develop technology solutions to try and mitigate terrorism and increase public safety, why would i not recommend those solutions if someone is thinking on a similar track? I'm pretty sure not many people here after venting frustration would leave their jobs and try and develop solutions for the same. I'm sure you will understand. No intention of going OT or anything. But all of us are on the same side and do work in our own little ways to try and contribute. Cheers

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 15 Jul 2011 03:03

Harbans,

Perhaps you may not have realised it, but the to and fro between you and Sravan was beginning to look a little commercial - at least in terms of the language used, sort of like business networking. No one is against the solutions or methods you or Sravan are proposing, on the contrary. However, to me too, it seemed inappropriate in this thread. I was about to post a desist request when I noticed that Ramana had already done so.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 15 Jul 2011 03:07

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/ ... 071411.php
Understanding terror attacks in India
Recent advances in computer science at the University of Maryland cast fresh light on terrorism in India

COLLEGE PARK, Md. – Recent advances in computer science at the University of Maryland's Laboratory for Computational Cultural Dynamics cast fresh light on terrorism in India, such as yesterday's coordinated attacks in Mumbai. Some important conclusions from two forthcoming papers, accepted for publication at the 2011 European Conference on Intelligence Security Informatics and the 2011 Open Source Intelligence Conference in September 2011, suggest that reining in terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), who carried out the devastating Mumbai attacks in Nov. 2008, can be done only with concurrent action by the United States and India and a reduction in US aid to Pakistan.

In order to understand how terrorism from groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba can be reduced, University of Maryland researchers led by Computer Science Professor V.S. Subrahmanian developed a number of mathematical models including stochastic opponent modeling agents and multi-player game theoretic models. The research team developed studied 5 entities – the US, India, the Pakistani military (including the Inter Services Intelligence agency), the Pakistani civilian government (not including the military or ISI), and Lashkar-e-Taiba.
The researchers looked for Nash equilibria, named after Nobel-prize winning economist John Nash, whose life was immortalized in the Oscar-winning movie, A Beautiful Mind. Intuitively, Nash equilibria specify situations where no entity involved in the game theoretic model can ``do better'' without upsetting another agency. "We did not find a single Nash equilibrium in which LeT exhibits good behavior in which the US expands financial aid to Pakistan," said Subrahmanian, who went on to remark that "This is consistent with the recent decision by the Obama administration to cut $800M in military aid to Pakistan." Nevertheless, "this would not be sufficient to de-fang groups like LeT that are reportedly funded by Pakistan's ISI intelligence agency", explained University of Maryland counter-terrorism analyst Aaron Mannes. "The recent court trial in Chicago of two alleged LeT operatives, David Headley and Tahawwur Rana, strongly suggests an ISI hand in the deadly Mumbai terrorist attack in Nov. 2008.""In addition to the results about trimming financial aid to Pakistan, we also found that there was not a single Nash equilibrium in which LeT exhibits good behavior in which both the US and India did not concurrently take either covert action against LeT and/or exercise coercive diplomacy toward Pakistan", said John Dickerson, a University of Maryland scientist who is also earning a doctorate at Carnegie-Mellon University.

"The results do not imply that the US and India need to coordinate actions – just that the actions need to occur over an overlapping period of time that is sufficiently long to convince both the Pakistani military and the LeT that terrorist actions will not pay", said Subrahmanian.

In addition to researching Lashkar-e-Taiba, the University of Maryland team has also used their data mining algorithms to learn models of the behavior of other terrorist groups in the Indian sub-continent such as Jaish-e-Mohammed in Pakistan and the Indian Mujahideen – alleged by some to be responsible for yesterday's triple bombings in Mumbai that killed over 20 people."Though it is too early to identify the perpetrators of yesterday's Mumbai attacks, computational models and algorithms can help decision makers shape improved counter-terrorism strategies and policies for threat reduction," said Subrahmanian.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 15 Jul 2011 03:08

amdavadi wrote:What is strange is, unkil & uknistan wants to blame pakis & L-E-Teee while GOI wants to blame IM.

Maybe they have been slapped US and UK so much when pointing to TSP that they decided to swallow the problem.

THey want to create the image in the people of US and UK with the LeT tag. This LET tag has cashmere attached to it and they have to remove it and put it ismilar to AQ.

After that they can work on banning it and putting pressure on GOP. This is an elaborate media campaign

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 15 Jul 2011 03:15

Menon Ji fair enough and that's why i have deferring to your and Ramana Ji's request. Only just offered my side of the story. I think we can all move on. It's your (admins) call on what is acceptable to be discussed and i respect that.

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 15 Jul 2011 03:28

Don't desist throwing ideas around. It is imperative we look at the problem objectively.

Dissect it scientifically and isolate and identify the variables to fix. As you can see the paper from the US research news paper is doing the same, where we will pull ahead is the ability to collect data that can prove one approach against another. The idea is to run through a thousand different scenario's using simulated environment and isolating what's wrong with our approach. Identify the scenario's where you have least collateral and propagate that to the decision makers.

harbans wrote:Menon Ji fair enough and that's why i have deferring to your and Ramana Ji's request. Only just offered my side of the story. I think we can all move on. It's your (admins) call on what is acceptable to be discussed and i respect that.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 15 Jul 2011 03:31

ramana wrote:He is not correct about Molotov Cocktail. That was bottle of petrol/gasolene with a rag as the fuse developed by Finns agaisnt Soviet Tanks just before WWII.

Calling NAFo bomb as MC is a misnomer. The FO acts as the carbon product to the Oxygen provided in NH4NO3.

Adding a hygroscopic (water absorbing) additive to the fertilizer will remove it as an explosive source. Non-Hygroscopic NH4NO3 for blasting purposes can be cntrolled by permits etc.

Only prilled (hygroscopic) variety is used in ANFO explosive. Non-prilled variety is not conducive to explosion.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 15 Jul 2011 03:39

CRamS wrote:Just lets put on our hard-nosed strategic thinking for a minute. I don't fully understand just yet as to what TSP gained from this attack?

One of the motives advanced for the 26/11 attack was that elements within TSP want to stop the India-Pakistan peace talks from making any progress. The same motive would be applicable in this case as well, seeing how the there was yet another round of talks recently, and loud opposition from the BJP signifying the Manmohan plan is back on the table.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 15 Jul 2011 03:55

Don't desist throwing ideas around. It is imperative we look at the problem objectively.

I agree Shravan Ji and that's what the article demonstrates too. But the point the mods are making is it seems/ implies something commercial to pitch in our own ideas that we (as patent holders)/ our company have developed or worked on and it's not Ok to use the forum to do that. Crude analogy here but somewhat like a talk sometime back here on BRF iirc on mods not moderating threads they participate in. So in that sense they do have a point and some sensitivity on it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jul 2011 04:06

Prem wrote:http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/ ... 071411.php
Understanding terror attacks in India
Recent advances in computer science at the University of Maryland cast fresh light on terrorism in India
COLLEGE PARK, Md. – Recent advances in computer science at the University of Maryland's Laboratory for Computational Cultural Dynamics cast fresh light on terrorism in India, such as yesterday's coordinated attacks in Mumbai. Some important conclusions from two forthcoming papers, accepted for publication at the 2011 European Conference on Intelligence Security Informatics and the 2011 Open Source Intelligence Conference in September 2011, suggest that reining in terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), who carried out the devastating Mumbai attacks in Nov. 2008, can be done only with concurrent action by the United States and India and a reduction in US aid to Pakistan.

In order to understand how terrorism from groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba can be reduced, University of Maryland researchers led by Computer Science Professor V.S. Subrahmanian developed a number of mathematical models including stochastic opponent modeling agents and multi-player game theoretic models. The research team developed studied 5 entities – the US, India, the Pakistani military (including the Inter Services Intelligence agency), the Pakistani civilian government (not including the military or ISI), and Lashkar-e-Taiba.
The researchers looked for Nash equilibria, named after Nobel-prize winning economist John Nash, whose life was immortalized in the Oscar-winning movie, A Beautiful Mind. Intuitively, Nash equilibria specify situations where no entity involved in the game theoretic model can ``do better'' without upsetting another agency. "We did not find a single Nash equilibrium in which LeT exhibits good behavior in which the US expands financial aid to Pakistan," said Subrahmanian, who went on to remark that "This is consistent with the recent decision by the Obama administration to cut $800M in military aid to Pakistan." Nevertheless, "this would not be sufficient to de-fang groups like LeT that are reportedly funded by Pakistan's ISI intelligence agency", explained University of Maryland counter-terrorism analyst Aaron Mannes. "The recent court trial in Chicago of two alleged LeT operatives, David Headley and Tahawwur Rana, strongly suggests an ISI hand in the deadly Mumbai terrorist attack in Nov. 2008." "In addition to the results about trimming financial aid to Pakistan, we also found that there was not a single Nash equilibrium in which LeT exhibits good behavior in which both the US and India did not concurrently take either covert action against LeT and/or exercise coercive diplomacy toward Pakistan", said John Dickerson, a University of Maryland scientist who is also earning a doctorate at Carnegie-Mellon University.

"The results do not imply that the US and India need to coordinate actions – just that the actions need to occur over an overlapping period of time that is sufficiently long to convince both the Pakistani military and the LeT that terrorist actions will not pay", said Subrahmanian.

In addition to researching Lashkar-e-Taiba, the University of Maryland team has also used their data mining algorithms to learn models of the behavior of other terrorist groups in the Indian sub-continent such as Jaish-e-Mohammed in Pakistan and the Indian Mujahideen – alleged by some to be responsible for yesterday's triple bombings in Mumbai that killed over 20 people."Though it is too early to identify the perpetrators of yesterday's Mumbai attacks, computational models and algorithms can help decision makers shape improved counter-terrorism strategies and policies for threat reduction," said Subrahmanian.

We need to invite the good Prof to our Forum.

Even Mesquita models show the same thing that unless the carrot and stick are used preferable on the wrong ends on TSP they dont produce cooperation.

The Ackerman solution to Evolution of co-operation to the Prisoner's Dilemma game shows that random tit-for tat induces cooperation. In fact it shows cooperation in just two to three rounds.

Till now TSP was confident that US will back them in their terror acts on India. Starting from 1990s thru 2011. And it didnt matter which party was in power in US. With the meltdown and the Af-Pak quagmire making deep inroads into US funds, there is some change in outlook. But for how long we dont know and if its genuine.

Anindya · Post by **Anindya** » 15 Jul 2011 04:16

The NIA, which was set up by Home Ministry to probe terror-related cases across the country, does not have any concrete success to show for in three of these cases handled by it -- Jama Masjid shooting, Varansi Ghat bombing and Chinnaswamy Stadium bombing.

This is a touch too unfair. The NIA has been very busy in making sure that Aseemanand can be blamed for Samjhauta express and has been going hammer and tongs at Sadhvi Pragya, so much so, that her brother tried to commit suicide in order to avoid harassment.

To malign such diligent crime solvers, as the NIA, is truly a shame.

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 15 Jul 2011 05:05

-deleted

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 15 Jul 2011 05:05

let's agree to not talk about products and strictly limit ourselves to methodologies.

harbans wrote:Don't desist throwing ideas around. It is imperative we look at the problem objectively.

I agree Shravan Ji and that's what the article demonstrates too. But the point the mods are making is it seems/ implies something commercial to pitch in our own ideas that we (as patent holders)/ our company have developed or worked on and it's not Ok to use the forum to do that. Crude analogy here but somewhat like a talk sometime back here on BRF iirc on mods not moderating threads they participate in. So in that sense they do have a point and some sensitivity on it.

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 15 Jul 2011 05:34

harbans wrote:Don't desist throwing ideas around. It is imperative we look at the problem objectively.

It is important to understand that as counter-terror methods have become more advanced, the terrorists have countered these advances by adopting progressively simpler means. Terrorists counter sophistication with simplicity.

If it were up to me, I would fight terrorism with the simplest means available.

In the case of these most recent serial blasts in Mumbai; regular police patrols with explosive-sniffing dogs on the leash, could have found -- or even better, deterred -- these bombs, thereby saving lives and limbs.

In the ugly aftermath of these blasts, this is when the authorities have the luxury of time, and so can spend at will to bring whatever sophistication is required to the investigation. (No doubt, they are running residues through gas-chromatographs/mass-spectrometers, and will try to identify the sources of the materials used.) However, in advance of an attack, the simplest means will bear the most fruit -- like a large cadre of explosives-sniffing dogs on regular patrols through highly congested areas of prominent cities.

A dog's nose is nothing to underestimate.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 15 Jul 2011 05:47

Nice discussion on Face the Nation. Host: Sagarika Ghosh
Participants: KC Singh, Praveen Swami, Anupam Kher, Kiran Bedi, Mahesh Jethmalani and Ranade

FTN: Is intelligence failure main reason for recurring terror attacks?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 15 Jul 2011 06:04

shiv wrote:
CRamS wrote:I don't fully understand just yet as to what TSP gained from this attack?
I can't say I understand either

It is clear now that sophisticated IEDs were used and most crowded places at peak rush hour were chosen. The intention was to cause maximum damage. IMO, it was either an operation that fizzled out (or could not be completed because not all IEDs could be planted successfully) or it was a dry run for a bigger attempt later and they needed to check out certain things in view of the supposedly changed environment after 26/11.

ranjbe · Post by **ranjbe** » 15 Jul 2011 06:15

Mumbai blasts: 5 most stupid things our politicians said

From DNA Mumbai:

"Not an intelligence failure'

-P Chidambaram

"We will stop 99 per cent of the attacks. But one per cent of attacks might get through and that is what I am saying." -
Rahul Gandhi

"Maharashtra crime rate has increased in the last 10 years. Examine from where the people perpetrating the crimes come from. We have blamed police and intelligence enough in all these years, now it is time to check on the migrants."
Raj Thackeray

]"India is better than Pakistan where blasts take place every day, every week.”
-Digvijay Singh

"Terrorists had the advantage of surprise"
Manmohan Singh

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/slideshow ... 5822-1#top
[/quote]

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 15 Jul 2011 06:17

nikhilarora wrote:Can we do something to initiate change? If anyone is in the civil services or some high post in GOI in BRF, could he or she help us by taking our concerns to the ministers! Can, we at least organize something to show solidarity for this cause so that the GOI thinks! Please, can we do something about it????

I can see around me scores, if not hundreds of people who are making that change. But as I see it the change cannot come from "above" - it cannot come from a leader except occasional inspiration from a Gandhi or a much followed personality like Anna Hazare. It has to spread "laterally" on the ground from person to person. We are a people who blindly accept what elected people say. We elect them and then we say "You are a leader, you must know. I don't know"

When (as just one example) the road outside your house gets a layer of tarmac that is only 3 cm thick making it drivable for 3 months you should be able to recognize it, smell a rat and realize that norms (and the original contract) call for laying a 10 cm layer. The local government official and the contractor for making the road are skimming your money. You can nail them by merely asking for the details of the original contract requirement and the actual work done via RTI. Tens of thousands of such requests from citizens to nail corruption at low levels have the dual effect of making the corrupt cautions while providing a tool in the hands of people who will understand that they can expose what is being done rather than blindly assuming that nothing can be done.

There are other ways and people are doing other things. This is just the route that I am taking. This is all OT - but the system in India needs deep cleansing with Ponds deep cleansing cream. Mumbai IMO has become a shit-pit with areas of the worst possible political-criminal-private citizen connections. Criminals are protected because everyone is a criminal in his own way. Duping the system is considered a sign of intelligence by Indians.

I will just post a couple of examples of how I am currently personally encouraging a corrupt system while I claim to be trying to fight corruption. It relates to the RTO in Bangalore. My nephew needs a driver's licence. He joins a driving school on payment of Rs 3500, gets 8-9 hours of cursory driving lessons and is not taught some of the most basic stuff and at the end a test is held for all the students from that school and all get a licence in a case of clear cooperation between private driving school and RTO inspectors. Everyone "benefits" but some time down the line one of these students is going to be involved in a serious accident. But as a culture we tend to blame "naseeb" and "fate" (even here someone brought up "nazar") rather than work backwards and trace it to a faulty system.

In another instance - I need a new driver's licence. The RTO office is supposed to have a bundle of free application form. But they sell the forms to a shop owner outside and ask people to buy the forms from there. The man in the shop adds some bells and whistles (envelope) and makes a cool Rs 20 per free application form. Most colleges in India have moved to online application forms, but the RTO will not do that because its employees will lose this lucrative extra income. Anyone who lives and observes this system in India will find it easy to identify key individuals who can be bribed and bent for a terrorist or other criminal act. You can obtain a drivers's licence or other identification document that makes you a local resident. From that you get a SIM card. etc. This is exactly what terrorists are documented to have done and the reports posted right here in this forum.

And we all say "Of corruption is so rampant we can't do anything" . We can - but most of us do not have the motivation even to act against one corrupt official whom you are associated with. Just one.

Sorry. OT.

tejas · Post by **tejas** » 15 Jul 2011 06:31

I feel compelled to talk about the 800 lb. gorilla in the room no one else seems to want to acknowledge. What if Pakistan has nothing to do with this blast? There are 150 million muslims in India. Let us say 99% are peace loving ( a higher number than anywhere else on earth I will grant you). That leaves 1.5 million that are not peaceful. Is it reasonable to assume that they have not/will not engage in activities their co-religionists have engaged in the world over?

Ignoring this problem will not make it go away. Unfortunately I have no solution to it. That solution was available in 1947 and was not acted upon. One thing is certain appeasing this population will never make things better. The more that is offered the more that will be demanded.