Thesis: Peace unlikely in next 25 years
Posted: 09 Apr 2013 08:31
As the title states, the thesis of this opinion piece by me is that there is no chance of that mythical "Peace" with Pakistan (or China) for the next 25 years at least. That means that if you are 25 years old today, you need to prepare yourself and your nation for possibility of continuing conflict on and off until you are 50 at the very least. If your son was born last year, he will have finished college while being and observer of continuing conflict. Don't fool him with silly ideas that peace may come tomorrow. It won't. Everyone needs to prepare for continuing conflict. This may or may not be hot war, but it certainly will not be peace and harmony between nations the way people talk of peace.
Why is this so?
1. Anyone who observes military preparedness should be able to see that big ticket military hardware requires forward planing for 20 to 25 years. Go back and search for the earliest references to "Project Sea Bird" and check the date. Similarly LCA, IGMDP and other programs were all set into motion over 25 years ago and are bearing fruit now. The gains will not simply be thrown away. A country that has required investment in security for over 50 years cannot simply stop doing that and say "we will now make ploughs, not weapons". We will covert our soldiers into pizza delivery boys. You cannot employ a million young people for the purpose of defence and then suddenly tell then "No jobs tomorrow". It did happen after WW2. In America, and even then American industries and personnel did not shift completely to a peace economy. They just became a peacetime power that looked for more war and found it soon enough. I am not saying that was wrong. The morality of that and my own views on that will require a separate post/article.
2. I recall weeks of anxiety on the faces of my elders when I was a child in 1962. By 1965 we had another war and I was old enough to read newspapers. In 1971 we had yet another war. There appeared to be an uneasy calm from 1972 to about 1979-80 when insurgencies and terrorism started. From 1984 we saw continuous infiltration and terrorism until 1999 when we had another little war. From 2000 to 2008 we had a peaking of terrorism. From 2009 to 2013 we have had continuing terrorism and infiltration at the border. Pakistan and its best brothel customers, the US and China have been involved from way back in the 1950s. Any Indian who believes that there can suddenly be peace is an imbecile. There is a culture of hostility in Pakistan. Hate education against India has continued from 1973 onwards. People of Pakistan who were 10 years old in 1973 who saw their army's abject defeat have been fed with hate education since then. they are now 50 years old and are becoming the leaders of Pakistan. Pakistan has 100 million people under 25. Many of these people have been indoctrinated to hate India. This is not going to fade away easily. Certainly not in the next 25 years.
3. Imagine that "peace" starts from tomorrow, the 10th of April 2013. Who will be able to declare that the peace is permanent? Would you say on the 17th of April that permanent peace has arrived? Would you be able to say that in 2014. Or 2020? Looking at the history of continuous conflict for over 50 years, there would have to be a peaceful interlude of at least 25 years before a whole generation can say with confidence that peace can hold. Any Indian leader who tries to tell Indians that peace can occur after a couple of worthless agreements with Pakistan is a liar. Any Indian in the media or outside who believes such a statement is an ignorant idiot. Things simply DO NOT work that way.
4. Even if peace has held for 5 years, each side will want the other to disarm to prove their sincerity. Pakistan's "sincerity" is non existent. So India cannot disarm. In fact the sensible thing to do would be to build up India's defence and technological base and make a virtue out of necessity. Stay well armed and ready to hit anyone who is aggressive. Build up high tech as a necessity for defence. This posture for 50 years would be necessary to bring a semblance of stability.
5. People who refer to Gandhiji's "non violence" and peace are too ignorant for words. They have not understood the first thing about Gandhi's tactics vis a vis the British. His non violence was a veiled threat that basically warned the Brits that they had better vacate after "peaceful negotiation" with 300 million Indians. Failing that there would be plenty of violence and they would go anyway. The British got the hint while the rest of the world imagined that "all was peaceful". I am a proponent of Gandhi style peace. Peace will come only if you are ready to kick the sorry asses of anyone who tries. The only way peace can come to India is to make India dangerous to anyone who wants to pick a fight.
Why is this so?
1. Anyone who observes military preparedness should be able to see that big ticket military hardware requires forward planing for 20 to 25 years. Go back and search for the earliest references to "Project Sea Bird" and check the date. Similarly LCA, IGMDP and other programs were all set into motion over 25 years ago and are bearing fruit now. The gains will not simply be thrown away. A country that has required investment in security for over 50 years cannot simply stop doing that and say "we will now make ploughs, not weapons". We will covert our soldiers into pizza delivery boys. You cannot employ a million young people for the purpose of defence and then suddenly tell then "No jobs tomorrow". It did happen after WW2. In America, and even then American industries and personnel did not shift completely to a peace economy. They just became a peacetime power that looked for more war and found it soon enough. I am not saying that was wrong. The morality of that and my own views on that will require a separate post/article.
2. I recall weeks of anxiety on the faces of my elders when I was a child in 1962. By 1965 we had another war and I was old enough to read newspapers. In 1971 we had yet another war. There appeared to be an uneasy calm from 1972 to about 1979-80 when insurgencies and terrorism started. From 1984 we saw continuous infiltration and terrorism until 1999 when we had another little war. From 2000 to 2008 we had a peaking of terrorism. From 2009 to 2013 we have had continuing terrorism and infiltration at the border. Pakistan and its best brothel customers, the US and China have been involved from way back in the 1950s. Any Indian who believes that there can suddenly be peace is an imbecile. There is a culture of hostility in Pakistan. Hate education against India has continued from 1973 onwards. People of Pakistan who were 10 years old in 1973 who saw their army's abject defeat have been fed with hate education since then. they are now 50 years old and are becoming the leaders of Pakistan. Pakistan has 100 million people under 25. Many of these people have been indoctrinated to hate India. This is not going to fade away easily. Certainly not in the next 25 years.
3. Imagine that "peace" starts from tomorrow, the 10th of April 2013. Who will be able to declare that the peace is permanent? Would you say on the 17th of April that permanent peace has arrived? Would you be able to say that in 2014. Or 2020? Looking at the history of continuous conflict for over 50 years, there would have to be a peaceful interlude of at least 25 years before a whole generation can say with confidence that peace can hold. Any Indian leader who tries to tell Indians that peace can occur after a couple of worthless agreements with Pakistan is a liar. Any Indian in the media or outside who believes such a statement is an ignorant idiot. Things simply DO NOT work that way.
4. Even if peace has held for 5 years, each side will want the other to disarm to prove their sincerity. Pakistan's "sincerity" is non existent. So India cannot disarm. In fact the sensible thing to do would be to build up India's defence and technological base and make a virtue out of necessity. Stay well armed and ready to hit anyone who is aggressive. Build up high tech as a necessity for defence. This posture for 50 years would be necessary to bring a semblance of stability.
5. People who refer to Gandhiji's "non violence" and peace are too ignorant for words. They have not understood the first thing about Gandhi's tactics vis a vis the British. His non violence was a veiled threat that basically warned the Brits that they had better vacate after "peaceful negotiation" with 300 million Indians. Failing that there would be plenty of violence and they would go anyway. The British got the hint while the rest of the world imagined that "all was peaceful". I am a proponent of Gandhi style peace. Peace will come only if you are ready to kick the sorry asses of anyone who tries. The only way peace can come to India is to make India dangerous to anyone who wants to pick a fight.