Perspectives on the global economic changes

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Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 25 Jun 2018 08:47

US and USD is looking pretty good while Trump is president weilding the big danda on trade.

Trump is scaring the exporting nations of the world senseless with threats of hundreds of billions in tariffs.
That's causing every major company from Toyota to Honda to Samsung to LG..etc. to move their factories to the US to not incur his wrath.
They don't want to be next in line for the his tariffs.

The losers will be Mexico, South Korea, SE Asia.. etc from where the factories will either be uprooted or no longer be built/expanded.

These companies moving their design & manufacturing base to the US is causing a job boom and a rise in real wages in that country.
That will fire up the US economy and once that happens, they will start raising interest rates leaving EU countries in the dust.

Years of listening to idiot economists advocating the hollowing out of their industrial & manufacturing base and suppressing wages as being good for the economy is being tossed into the garbage bin. In its place is coming an America first policy.

Trump will win a second term if he keeps up this momentum.

America's future is looking a lot better under Trump - although its coming at the expense of other countries who are dependent on exports to the US market.

For now however, beware the danda..

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Jun 2018 09:22

This is assuming other countries wont retaliate with counter tarriff which they are doing , Trade war is a two way thing , What trump is doing with Tarrif might be good for his voter base but that wont make US economy any stronger and debts under trump will just rise more exponentially

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby yensoy » 25 Jun 2018 10:37

Actually this may end up being a good thing for us.

Goods exporting countries will hurt, since tangible goods are politically easier to tax. China is already starting to show early signs of a downturn in anticipation of a prolonged trade war.

If more factories move to the US, the already tight employment levels in the US will get tighter and wages will increase which is a good thing for the US. This will make it even more lucrative to move service oriented industries, especially those at the low end of the spectrum, out of the US. Ergo, it will benefit many of our outsourcing providers.

USD will no doubt strengthen, oil will fall roughly to the same degree since its demand will be muted at the higher prices, there won't be much of an effect to our trade balance in that area.

Then we will make Trump super happy by making a big purchase of an American weapon system (don't care which one it is), and hopefully get a free pass on tariffs.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby JohnTitor » 25 Jun 2018 13:25

Neshant, I don't think it'll work out as you suggest.

The EU and China are targeting their tariffs at his voter base. Though there is a chance that it might make them double down on trump.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... etaliation

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 25 Jun 2018 13:39

US is going to win any trade war simply because the world needs it's markets and dollars way more than vice versa.

From here on, even in the absence of a tariff threat, companies will have at the back of their minds that excessive imports into the US with no equivalent local (US) development & manufacturing base will attract bad karma. The bad karma being Trump's danda.

That issue aside, we are overdue for a resumption of The Great Recession which began in 2008 at some point.
2020 looks to be a nice year for that to take place.
The entire EU block will crumble in the next crash as capital flees that continent for the US.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby g.sarkar » 25 Jun 2018 15:36

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... icken-game
Politics
U.S., China to See Who Blinks First in Economic ‘Chicken’ Game
By Jenny Leonard, June 24, 2018
The U.S. and China’s high-stakes game of economic “chicken” reaches a critical juncture in the next two weeks, as the world’s largest trading partners approach deadlines on tariffs and other barriers that may determine who blinks first.
The Treasury Department on Friday is due to announce restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S. as well as enhanced export controls, as part of the Trump administration’s actions taken under Section 301 to respond to China’s alleged theft of U.S. intellectual property.
President Donald Trump in March directed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to address investment concerns in critical U.S. technologies.
The administration is expected to justify imposing the curbs by declaring an economic emergency using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, people familiar with the plans said.
They said the investment sanctions will focus on Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” sectors that include aerospace, robotics and new energy vehicles, among others.
Phased Rollout Planned
The IEEPA statute allows the president to unilaterally impose the investment limits. Congress, in parallel, is working on reform legislation to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, that would scrutinize inbound investment in the U.S. on national security grounds.
People familiar with the administration’s plans said Treasury’s investment limits are seen as complementing the CFIUS reform efforts, which are not only focused on China and don’t limit investments on economic security grounds.
The people briefed on this week’s action said the Treasury limits will be rolled out in phases, meaning not all Made in China 2025 sectors will be covered at once.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 25 Jun 2018 19:17

China quietly backpeddling on Made in China 2025 hoping to fly it under the radar.
But it's only cosmetic.
They plan to go through with it anyway.

US is lucky to have Trump to stop the theft of American intellectual property and massive one way trade deficits with China.
Had it been Hillary, she would have done nothing.

-------

Fearful Of "Triggering" Trump, China Begins Downplaying "Made In China 2025"

Trump's unorthodox policies appears to be bearing fruit.

Amid a barrage of constant tit-for-tat escalations which are finally beginning to spillover into markets - a necessary condition for Trump's negotiating strategy to be taken seriously by America's trading partners as Goldman explained at the start of the month - Reuters reports that Beijing has begun "downplaying" Made in China 2025, the state-backed industrial policy that has provoked alarm in the West and is the core reason behind Washington’s complaints about the country’s technological ambitions.

Halting China's relentless technological advance, much of which is on the back of reverse-engineered, "merged & acquired", or simply stolen US technologies, is the reason for the latest developments out of Washington, which according to media reports will see the Trump administration enforce rules that bar companies with at least 25% Chinese ownership from buying U.S. firms with “industrially significant technology."

To be sure, Trump's attempt to reduce the Chinese trade surplus with the US is just one aspect of Trump's complaint over US-Chinese relations: with a full-blown trade war looming amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on up to $450 billion in Chinese imports, his administration has fixed on Beijing’s signature effort to deploy state support to close a technology gap in 10 key sectors.

In the Reuters report, which quotes a senior western diplomat, in meetings Chinese officials have recently begun downplaying Made in China 2025.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06- ... china-2025

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Jun 2018 21:15

You give a man a gun he can rob a bank, You give a man a bank he can rob the world.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Jun 2018 21:16

Global Financial Meltdown - One Of The Best Financial Crisis Documentary Films




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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby g.sarkar » 26 Jun 2018 11:52

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/19/china-h ... lainternal
China has a limited number of weapons to use in a trade war with the US
The U.S. and China moved closer to the brink of a trade war after President Donald Trump threatened another $200 billion in tariffs, responding to a lack of progress made in negotiations.
Because it imports far less than it exports, China would face limitations in how it could respond to U.S. duties.
Options include action against U.S. companies in China, currency devaluation, selling Treasurys and easing sanctions against North Korea.
Jeff Cox 20 June 2018
As China and the U.S. near a trade war, both nations bring different weapons to the table. For the U.S., it's direct tariffs on the plethora of goods it imports, while for China the calculus is a little different.
China is limited somewhat in the amount of retaliatory tariffs it can apply, simply because it doesn't import nearly as much in American goods compared with what the U.S. takes of Chinese products. China imported just $129.9 billion from the U.S. in 2017, compared with $505.5 billion in exports, according to the Census Bureau.
"China is going to run out of direct reprisals quickly should it look to match the U.S. in tariffs," LPL Research said in a note. "There is also broad agreement globally that China engages in a range of unfair trade practices, which provides some moral high ground for the U.S. to demand concessions."
What China does have at its disposal is a handful of other measures that, while not as likely to be implemented as simple tariffs, remain potentially harmful. Markets are clearly nervous about the possibility of an escalation. The Dow industrials took a big tumble in market action Tuesday while government bond yields and commodity prices also mostly moved sharply lower.
Describing the environment, Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at forex brokerage Oanda, noted that while China "doesn't want a trade war, it's not afraid to engage in one" and thus "it's difficult to see how and when this ends."
In figuring out how it ends, markets will be watching where it's going.
.....
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/25/china-c ... lainternal
China's sudden currency slide sparks rumors of an anti-Trump policy move
China's currency in the past week and half has fallen against the dollar, as President Donald Trump ramped up trade rhetoric and threatened more tariffs and other action.
That sparked speculation in the market that China could use its currency as a policy weapon, intentionally cheapening it to make its goods cost less on the world market.
However, analysts do not believe China would intentionally devalue its currency and said it could take other steps, like tariffs, to fight back against the U.S.
Patti Domm
China’s currency has slipped markedly in the last week, to the point where it’s trading at December lows against the dollar, and that’s prompting speculation that China would be willing to use a weakened currency to fight U.S. tariffs and trade threats. But analysts say while the currency has made a clear move lower since trade rhetoric flared, the likelihood of China devaluing its currency to spite President Donald Trump is very low. For now it appears the currency's drop could just be a coincidence.
China has often been accused by the U.S. government of intentionally keeping its currency depressed to cheapen its goods in the world market, making them more attractive than those from countries with stronger currencies. The Trump administration this year stopped short of calling China a ‘currency manipulator,' and China’s currency has actually been fairly steady for most of the year.
“"If a bear is coming at you, why would you wave a red flag in front of it," said Robert Sinche, the chief global strategist at Amherst Pierpont.
But Sinche said while it does not seem China would intentionally drive its currency lower, it may have previously slowed the decline.
“It looked like they were impeding the dollar’s rise against the remnimbi, in line with what you normally expect given the general strength of the dollar. That caught up last week,” he said. “They weren’t letting the currency weaken as much as it should have, so the trade-weighted remnimbi was actually rising in that environment. I think they might have said, ‘The U.S. is not going to play nice, we’ll let the remnimbi trade as it should.’”
Nonetheless, rumors circulated that China could go further and actually become aggressive in forcing a decline in the remnimbi, also known as the yuan. “The yuan is controlled. They allow it to trade in a band. In order to make sure they don’t have a runaway trade. What you’re seeing is the [speculators] took it by the upper limit of its band," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director at BK Asset Management. "I think the market is anticipating something, or they feel it’s going to be a natural policy response if this keeps up.”
......
Gautam

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 26 Jun 2018 22:46

India"s Contribution to World real GDP growth is currently about 15% (green), 2nd highest after China's 34% (red)

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 28 Jun 2018 13:08

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/stat ... 2050756608

The Spectator Index

Oil price needed to balance budget.

Venezuela: $223
Nigeria: $124
Algeria: $105
Angola: $78
Saudi: $87
Iran: $68
Kazakhstan: $60
Iraq: $54
Kuwait: $48
Russia: $40

Current oil price: $77.4

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby hanumadu » 28 Jun 2018 13:18

Hoping to see it at 40 some time soon.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Jun 2018 16:47

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ar/563030/
China is not attracting enough foreign investment.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 01 Jul 2018 00:12

Centralising the power of money breeds corruption.

Fiat money, central banking, printing money, "stimulus", bailouts to bankers, are all moral hazards which destroy capitalism by giving clueless or corrupt individuals the power to pick winners and losers.

Essentially it gives them the power to steal from the fruits of someone's labor with is anethema to what capitalism stands for - earning & keeping the fruits of your labor.

Nassem Taleb describes it so well in this short clip.

Have a listen :


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Kati » 01 Jul 2018 08:41

A few snippets:
1. China has removed tariff on soybeans from five Asian countries including India (the other four are minnows). I guess, this is an olive branch China is extending to India. This matter has received good publicity in the western press.
2. The fact that India is retaliating against Trump trade policy, however small it might be compared to China's, has gotten wide publicity in the western press. Trump-haters are using this to show that Trump is antagonizing "friendly countries".
3. Except on the oil front, this whole US-China spat is a win-win situation for India from two sides. US businesses might be inclined to relocate to India, since Trump is bashing China mainly for stealing intellectual property.Trade imbalance is secondary.
4. Chinese economy is 50% dependent on external trade (i.e., 50% production for internal use). On the other hand, Indian economy has only 20% exposure to external trade (i.e., 80% of the production is for internal consumption). This is from a discussion on NPR several years ago about why India fared so well when the Asian currency flu took place.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby CalvinH » 04 Jul 2018 07:29

India may not gain as Trump would like to keep the sweep broader to give an impression of fairness though the target is China. We may suffer as two giants fight a proxy war.

China has much to lose. But watch out for Japan as well. Japan has lot of things riding on their trade with China. A lot of manufacturing is outsourced to China. Plus a lot of Sales for Japanese companies is coming from China.

US markets are holding steady while Asian markets are falling. This will embolden Trump further. Expect a hardening in the stance in future.

Chinese on the other hand can only throw some fake punches like using their kangaroo courts to ban US companies. It will just expose them further to American public.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-03/micron-chip-sales-banned-in-china-on-patent-case-rival-umc-says

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 04 Jul 2018 21:29

Trump is going to destroy China's mercantilist trade policy where they sell everything and buy nothing from the US except strategic assets + IP theft.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby shyam » 06 Jul 2018 12:29

Suddenly a lot of bad news about Indian economy is appearing in the international alt-economic media. This is primarily related to NPAs in public sector banks. While the data that is coming out recently is what Modi is trying to recover and fix the problem created by UPA, the global news spreads a different story.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... npl-crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfHQ9AmkOr8

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby shyam » 06 Jul 2018 20:56

Today this...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... tcoin-scam

Normally, nobody would care for these kinds of news. Looks like somebody is working behind the scene to give publicity for these news.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 06 Jul 2018 21:20

shyam wrote:Today this...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... tcoin-scam

Normally, nobody would care for these kinds of news. Looks like somebody is working behind the scene to give publicity for these news.


@Shyam. Just the usual. Expect more of this mutts slinging the closer we get to the elections. No one benefits from a strong and independent India

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 08 Jul 2018 15:39

Keiser Report: Genuine Trade War


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 08 Jul 2018 15:54


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby chola » 08 Jul 2018 16:16

Neshant wrote:China quietly backpeddling on Made in China 2025 hoping to fly it under the radar.
But it's only cosmetic.
They plan to go through with it anyway.

US is lucky to have Trump to stop the theft of American intellectual property and massive one way trade deficits with China.
Had it been Hillary, she would have done nothing.


It would be disappointing if the PRC gives up so quickly. lol

Of course, they would go through with it. We didn’t give up on the LCA and Kaveri after US sanctions either. But look at how long those took afterwards.

It would be interesting to see how Chini technology develops after being isolated from US/Western tech. I think they would still receive some from their Eastern neighbors (SK, Japan, Taiwan are and will be heavily involved in the chini market.) But they’ll have to set off on a new path.

One of the things that Wall Street and the GOTUS disagrees on is how you dominate a market versus a nation. Lockheed Martin was about to own the Chinese launch and satellite markets in the 1990s. Intel and nVidia once owned the Chinese supercomputer space.

Today both the chini satellite and supercomputing markets are among the largest in the world without any American share.

From Wall Street’s standpoint, we would love to own those markets but from the GOTUS’ point of view American involvement in those spaces would weaken American lead on the battlefield over China as a nation.

But the ability of the US to obliterate a company like ZTE with 75,000 employees in a blink of an eye is example of Wall Street’s power too. ZTE depended on imports from the US. In the future that kind of power would be lost once China is isolated — like in the satellite and supercomputer industries.

For better or worse, Cheen represents the one challenge to the gora-led system today. It will be interesting to see where it leads.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 08 Jul 2018 21:40

The Spectator Index


@spectatorindex
4m4 minutes ago
More
Interest Rate

Argentina: 40%
Venezuela: 21%
Iran: 18%
Turkey: 17.75%
Nigeria: 14%
Mexico: 7.75%
Russia: 7.25%
Brazil: 6.5%
Pakistan: 6.5%
India: 6.25%
Indonesia: 5.25%
China: 4.35%
Saudi: 2.5%
US: 2%
Australia: 1.5%
Canada: 1.25%
UK: 0.5%
Euro Area: 0%
Japan: -0.1%

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby yensoy » 08 Jul 2018 22:12

chola wrote:...Intel and nVidia once owned the Chinese supercomputer space.

Today both the chini satellite and supercomputing markets are among the largest in the world without any American share.
...


Huh, say what? China, rather each Chinese province is in a pissing contest with the other, trying to make the "biggest" supercomputer by basically stringing together a bunch of racks of standard Intel based CPUs supported by nVidia GPUs and high speed networking. Once they achieve their bragging rights, they take apart the system because it's pretty much useless for anything else. The whole top supercomputer list is a charade these days, the only reason being to massage the Chinese provincial egos. Not to say that they don't have good capable systems to do their nuke simulation and other such, but that software is probably running on some classified system which doesn't show up on Prof Dongarra's list.

The West has realized the futility of competing for bragging rights, when the real money is to be made in software, analytics and applications thereof.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby chola » 08 Jul 2018 23:18

If you are following the industry then you will know this is still important and the chini systems were never dismantled and in fact had stayed on top of the global listngs for the past five years until the US went in front again just this June.

Obama embargoed top tiered US processing chips to cripple this very chini effort.

Unkil will probably fall behind again to the chini exascale machines that are ramping up now and then the two will trade off that top spot like ping pong for the coming years unless the Japanese and Euros wake up.

https://nytimes.com/2018/06/08/technology/supercomputer-china-us.html

Move Over, China: U.S. Is Again Home to World’s Speediest Supercomputer

By Steve Lohr
June 8, 2018


The United States just won bragging rights in the race to build the world’s speediest supercomputer.

For five years, China had the world’s fastest computer, a symbolic achievement for a country trying to show that it is a tech powerhouse. But the United States retook the lead thanks to a machine, called Summit, built for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby pravula » 09 Jul 2018 09:14

yensoy wrote:
chola wrote:...Intel and nVidia once owned the Chinese supercomputer space.

Today both the chini satellite and supercomputing markets are among the largest in the world without any American share.
...


Huh, say what? China, rather each Chinese province is in a pissing contest with the other, trying to make the "biggest" supercomputer by basically stringing together a bunch of racks of standard Intel based CPUs supported by nVidia GPUs and high speed networking. Once they achieve their bragging rights, they take apart the system because it's pretty much useless for anything else. The whole top supercomputer list is a charade these days, the only reason being to massage the Chinese provincial egos. Not to say that they don't have good capable systems to do their nuke simulation and other such, but that software is probably running on some classified system which doesn't show up on Prof Dongarra's list.

The West has realized the futility of competing for bragging rights, when the real money is to be made in software, analytics and applications thereof.


As opposed to? When was the last time any supercomputer was made without COTS processors and GPUs "stringed" together by highspeed networking?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby yensoy » 09 Jul 2018 09:25

pravula wrote:As opposed to? When was the last time any supercomputer was made without COTS processors and GPUs "stringed" together by highspeed networking?


Don't make a strawman argument just for the sake. The point I am making is that the so-called Chinese supercomputers heavily rely on American chips and technology.

I also see that #2 on the top500 list is a "Sunway" supercomputer made with "Sunway" chips that consumes 15MW (!!) which is about twice the power of the #1 spot, has 5 times as many cores and 30% less flops rating. So apparently there are Chinese chips too, just that they suck in all measurable ways. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunway_SW26010

These line of chips/supercomputers has been in production for some years now https://www.infoworld.com/article/2621087/high-performance-computing/china-s-newest-supercomputer-uses-homegrown-chips.html.

The Tianhe line uses Intel/nVidia.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby pravula » 09 Jul 2018 09:54

yensoy wrote:
pravula wrote:As opposed to? When was the last time any supercomputer was made without COTS processors and GPUs "stringed" together by highspeed networking?


Don't make a strawman argument just for the sake. The point I am making is that the so-called Chinese supercomputers heavily rely on American chips and technology.

I also see that #2 on the top500 list is a "Sunway" supercomputer made with "Sunway" chips that consumes 15MW (!!) which is about twice the power of the #1 spot, has 5 times as many cores and 30% less flops rating. So apparently there are Chinese chips too, just that they suck in all measurable ways. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunway_SW26010

These line of chips/supercomputers has been in production for some years now https://www.infoworld.com/article/2621087/high-performance-computing/china-s-newest-supercomputer-uses-homegrown-chips.html.

The Tianhe line uses Intel/nVidia.


No, you made a derisive comment about Chinese stringing some intel chips and nVidia/AMD GPUs to make their supercomputers. My question was - what's the current alternative? And your response is - this is a strawman argument? :eek:

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby chola » 09 Jul 2018 09:56

yensoy wrote:
pravula wrote:As opposed to? When was the last time any supercomputer was made without COTS processors and GPUs "stringed" together by highspeed networking?


Don't make a strawman argument just for the sake. The point I am making is that the so-called Chinese supercomputers heavily rely on American chips and technology.

I also see that #2 on the top500 list is a "Sunway" supercomputer made with "Sunway" chips that consumes 15MW (!!) which is about twice the power of the #1 spot, has 5 times as many cores and 30% less flops rating. So apparently there are Chinese chips too, just that they suck in all measurable ways. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunway_SW26010



Summit came online just last month! It is supposed to be more efficient and powerful.

When the Sunway came out in 2016 it was nearly THREE TIMES more efficient than the most powerful American supercomputer, the Cray at Oak Ridge.

Look at the gigaflops per watt column — 6 to 2:
Image


These line of chips/supercomputers has been in production for some years now https://www.infoworld.com/article/2621087/high-performance-computing/china-s-newest-supercomputer-uses-homegrown-chips.html.

The Tianhe line uses Intel/nVidia.


The Tianhe being on top of the super computing charts for three years before the Sunway was what prompted Obama’s embargo (and what Wall Street saw as the American retreat from the chini supercomputer market which it had dominated.) The current expansion of Tianhe and its next generations will have no choice but to use Chinese chips.

You don’t have to convince anyone that the US chips are better — especially in the smallest high efficiency chips needed for cellphones which brought ZTE to its knees.

But unlike almost every other non-US allied country out there, including Russia, the PRC is not entirely helpless. Their supercomputer development after Obama’s embargo is a sign of that.

The Trump tariffs and ZTE annihilation will force a lot more — if not all — chini technology industries into dropping US parts. Hopefully the scope can overwhelm them but they’ve shown before that they are able to withstand embargoes and power forward with competive stuff that they steal, copy or developed even if not the best.

You know on Wall Street, the Lockheed Martin lesson still reverberates. LM was within a hair’s breath of dominating Cheen’s satellite and launch market until Clinton’s space embargo took place. Think about that.

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 09 Jul 2018 10:50

The Spectator Index


@spectatorindex
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GDP (PPP), 2018 ($ trillion)

China: 25.2
US: 20.4
India: 10.4
Japan: 5.6
Germany: 4.3
Russia: 4.1
Indonesia: 3.5
Brazil: 3.4
UK: 3
France: 2.9
Mexico: 2.5
Italy: 2.4
Turkey: 2.3
S Korea: 2.1
Spain: 1.8
Canada: 1.8
Saudi: 1.8
Iran: 1.7
Australia: 1.3
Thailand: 1.3
Egypt: 1.3

Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 10 Jul 2018 12:21

Austin wrote:The Spectator Index


Surely pakistan would be somewhere on that list. Where are they.

What about Netherlands, Poland?

The ppp is kind of meaningless since most of India's ppp is absorbed just for basic existence (food, shelter) rather than having an investible surplus that can be deployed into research & development activities.

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 10 Jul 2018 16:39

Bank of America Sees a Replay of 1998 in Summer Pain Trades

U.S. growth, flattening curve, tumbling EMs bear 90s hallmark
Deleveraging risks ahead for tech and credit markets: BofA

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 11 Jul 2018 09:30

David Stockman to Trump: Blame the Fed, Not Trade Deals, for U.S. Trade Deficit


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jul 2018 01:15

Brexit while keeping the UK in the EU customs union?
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opin ... avity.html

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 22 Jul 2018 11:39

Russian Central Bank ( CBR ) as liquadated T Bills from $96 billion in March 2018 to $14 Billion today in 4 months sold 82 billion USD , something big under works as Central Bank did not liquadate US T Bills even during height of US Russia crisis in 2014.

CBR is buying gold aggressively and likely investing in IMF SDR and EU bond

https://www.rt.com/business/433781-russ ... sanctions/

Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 23 Jul 2018 07:16

2021 looks to be the time frame around which unpayable Treasury Bonds will be converted overnight into IMF SDRs. By doing so, worthless IOUs issued by the US are given value by the productive output of other countries forced into the SDR system.

However just as with national currencies, the IMF SDR will inevitably prove to be a con over time. Countries accumulating SDRs will one day wake up to find they have accumulated a storehouse of toilet paper they thought were savings.


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