BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Mihaylo
Week 6:
0 0 5 40 50 5 0
Week 6:
0 0 5 40 50 5 0
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
B week 6 0 0 0 90 10 0
Also the numbers 258 268
Also the numbers 258 268
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Week 5 NDA
Good Participation with 30 folks. The median reduces to 259 but the mean is now 266. If we weigh each estimate by the confidence, then the weighted mean estimate is exactly 272! Median confidence is high at 72, so there has been the expected tendency to narrow the range. If we believe in the wisdom of the crowd, then the most likely range is 260 to 280 which seems to be consistent with one stray twitter report regarding an exit poll leak.
Good Participation with 30 folks. The median reduces to 259 but the mean is now 266. If we weigh each estimate by the confidence, then the weighted mean estimate is exactly 272! Median confidence is high at 72, so there has been the expected tendency to narrow the range. If we believe in the wisdom of the crowd, then the most likely range is 260 to 280 which seems to be consistent with one stray twitter report regarding an exit poll leak.
Code: Select all
JINGO NDA180 NDA210 NDA230 NDA250 NDA270 NDA290 NDA320 ESTIMATE CONFIDENCE
AnandK 50 25 25 0 0 0 0 200 70
Rudradev 20 40 35 5 0 0 0 213 61
merlin 0 50 45 5 0 0 0 221 77
Mihaylo 0 45 40 15 0 0 0 224 71
Marten 0 30 40 20 10 0 0 232 57
MukeshKumar 0 25 45 25 5 0 0 232 61
matrimc 0 20 40 30 5 5 0 237 52
panduranghari 0 0 60 30 5 5 0 242 73
kish 3 12 24 33 19 9 0 246 34
Vamsee 0 15 25 30 20 10 0 247 39
rvishwak 0 5 10 70 15 0 0 249 75
SwamyG 0 0 40 35 10 10 5 252 53
Klaus 0 0 30 30 40 0 0 252 67
brihaspati 0 0 0 80 15 5 0 256 86
Supratik 5 10 10 20 30 20 5 258 19
vijaykarthik 0 0 12 38 38 12 0 260 59
MortWalker 0 0 0 40 50 10 0 264 74
NarayanaRao 0 0 0 30 50 20 0 268 70
Kati 0 5 10 20 15 30 20 275 28
Denis 0 0 0 10 30 60 0 280 76
Patni 0 0 0 0 55 35 10 282 75
deejay 0 0 5 15 25 30 25 284 43
ShankarCag 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 290 100
Saral 0 0 0 0 0 40 60 308 84
KLPDubey 0 0 0 0 0 30 70 311 86
rajithn 0 0 0 0 0 10 90 317 94
RamaY 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 320 100
harbans 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 320 100
chaanakya 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 320 100
chandturakhia 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 320 100
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Shakimaan Week 6 : 0 40 40 10 10 0 0
I've been consistently feeling that the pre-poll NDA is headed to 230-240 seats. Whatever positive news comes out, is balanced by bad news of EVM magic, rigging in WB and UP, Sampath = Janpath, etc.
I've been consistently feeling that the pre-poll NDA is headed to 230-240 seats. Whatever positive news comes out, is balanced by bad news of EVM magic, rigging in WB and UP, Sampath = Janpath, etc.
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Mort Walker Week 6: 0 0 0 50 50 0 0
Turning a little pessimistic as the last 3 phases of Bihar are yielding 12/21, Andhra appears to be toward YSR (Jagan), and massive voter fraud in other states.
Turning a little pessimistic as the last 3 phases of Bihar are yielding 12/21, Andhra appears to be toward YSR (Jagan), and massive voter fraud in other states.
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Mukesh.Kumar Week 6-
0,20,50,30,0,0,0
0,20,50,30,0,0,0
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
SwamyG: Week 6
0,5,45,40,10,0,0
narrowing down a little bit from Week 5: 0,0,40,35,10,10,5
0,5,45,40,10,0,0
narrowing down a little bit from Week 5: 0,0,40,35,10,10,5
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Rajithn:
Week 5: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Somehow my contribution is missing in Saral's summary for week 5.
Week 6: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Week 5: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Somehow my contribution is missing in Saral's summary for week 5.
Week 6: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
It is there. For week 6,rajithn wrote:Rajithn:
Week 5: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Somehow my contribution is missing in Saral's summary for week 5.
Last edited by Saral on 11 May 2014 03:14, edited 1 time in total.
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Oh i thought we ought to predict before the exit polls, that was part of the fun. If exit polls are allowed then it becomes a little "tainted" no?
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Well, we have plenty of data from weeks 1 to 5 to know your judgments. Last week can be a bit different and contaminated .. that's ok. If people do want to give their inputs before exit polls that's fine too; at this point there's really not too much reason to shift from week 5 ratings. I am poll fatigued and am looking towards May 16.
So at this point, I am assuming that everyone's week 6 pre-exit poll ratings are the same as week 5. If not, post your mods here as SwamyG did. Anything after exit polls start can be labelled "Post Exit Polls".
So at this point, I am assuming that everyone's week 6 pre-exit poll ratings are the same as week 5. If not, post your mods here as SwamyG did. Anything after exit polls start can be labelled "Post Exit Polls".
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
ok, eating my own dog food..
Week 6 pre-exit poll
Saral 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
toning down a bit and banking on NDA to land above 280
300+ is a possibility and Chaanakya could be our winner.
Week 6 pre-exit poll
Saral 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
300+ is a possibility and Chaanakya could be our winner.
Last edited by Saral on 12 May 2014 01:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
B wk 6 pre exit poll 0 0 0 5 90 5 0
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
mrkts were up smartly based on a "leaked" exit poll. Wonder who leaked it. In the meanwhile, John Dreze calls the Gujurat model a middling model. [Quite fair too, to be honest. I don't see anything great about the model based purely on ground truths. However, that doesn't make Modi any lesser / better]
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Week 6
Patni 0 0 0 0 65 35 0
Patni 0 0 0 0 65 35 0
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
-- this is brilliant. Some way by which we can cover how we take our judgments into consideration given new facts is good. that's as important as blindly judging estimates based on group think / bias.Saral wrote:It is there. For week 6,rajithn wrote:Rajithn:
Week 5: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Somehow my contribution is missing in Saral's summary for week 5.using exit poll info is allowed.we will do it in 2 parts.. Pre exit-poll (currently active, assumed to be same as week 5 unless you make an active entry) and Post-exit poll after Monday 6 pm IST.
[trick qn / food for thought: if our estimates are just on basis of our minds (aka bias) how good is the actual estimate / judgment? Wink]
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Narayana Rao 6th week same as before.
I fee the rigging has taken some toll. But there is also increase in possible winnable seats and both cancelled out. Rigging will help only so much and mainly effective against an opponent not having equal power to ring like BJP in WB. Otherwise in placed like UP BJP will not allow wholesale rigging and will rig where ever they can. So now much advantage there.
I fee the rigging has taken some toll. But there is also increase in possible winnable seats and both cancelled out. Rigging will help only so much and mainly effective against an opponent not having equal power to ring like BJP in WB. Otherwise in placed like UP BJP will not allow wholesale rigging and will rig where ever they can. So now much advantage there.
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
0 0 60 30 5 5 0
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Has anyone thought of the possibility of the BJP rigging? They have a lot at stake and if the other parties do it, why not the BJP too?
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Week 6: 0 0 0 0 0 10 90
Chand
Chand
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
You need to have EC appointed by BJP for this to happen. BJP run states are still managed by CEC.vijaykarthik wrote:Has anyone thought of the possibility of the BJP rigging? They have a lot at stake and if the other parties do it, why not the BJP too?
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
rvishwak
Week 6 [Pre Exit Poll] :
0 0 0 60 40 0 0
Changed from Week 5 which was 0 5 10 70 15 0 0.
1) Sensex rise
2) Namo not present in Varanasi during last 2-3 days before it goes to polls, shows the confidence.
3) Congi trying everything from raising Gujrat Coastal Security issue to EC raiding BJP's Varanasi office shows the desperation to stop Namo becoming PM and implicate him in something
4) Reports talking about NDA making inroads in states where they didn't even had a chance till few weeks back like WB, TN, Oddisa. If the reports are correct then NDA should do well in states where they are strong/ semi-strong.
Week 6 [Pre Exit Poll] :
0 0 0 60 40 0 0
Changed from Week 5 which was 0 5 10 70 15 0 0.
1) Sensex rise
2) Namo not present in Varanasi during last 2-3 days before it goes to polls, shows the confidence.
3) Congi trying everything from raising Gujrat Coastal Security issue to EC raiding BJP's Varanasi office shows the desperation to stop Namo becoming PM and implicate him in something
4) Reports talking about NDA making inroads in states where they didn't even had a chance till few weeks back like WB, TN, Oddisa. If the reports are correct then NDA should do well in states where they are strong/ semi-strong.
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
RamaY week6: 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
deejay week6: 0 10 10 10 15 25 30
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Sir - can someone post all opinion poll data before the election started here please?
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
^^ I had put up a few links earlier already. pl chk the first few pages for the links.
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
So the inputs from posters would keep pouring like this till May 16th or some average is going to be taken from all the inputs and presented here before May 16th?
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Ok my Last posting prior to Close of the Poll.
Wk6
Chaanakya 0 0 0 0 0 100
Wk6
Chaanakya 0 0 0 0 0 100
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
My one and only prediction.
NDA - 220-240 (50%)
NDA-240-260 (45%)
NDA (260-280) (5%)
NDA - 220-240 (50%)
NDA-240-260 (45%)
NDA (260-280) (5%)
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Ok since exit polls are almost upon us time to move to post-exit polls shortly.
Week 6 pre-exit poll (last minute shivers)
Saral 0 0 0 0 20 60 20
from now on please add "post exit-polls" to your forecasts.
Bonus: Also include a specific number for NDA as your best guess.
Week 6 pre-exit poll (last minute shivers)
Saral 0 0 0 0 20 60 20
from now on please add "post exit-polls" to your forecasts.
Bonus: Also include a specific number for NDA as your best guess.
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
SRoy 0 0 0 0 0 50 50
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Reminder: You can also put a specific number as NDA total.
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
vijaykarthik 0 0 0 12 82 6 0 [260 59]
Somehow, I got the vague number a few days back that NDA will get 268. UPA at 112. Lets see how it goes.
I will put it at 262-268 currently for NDA.
Somehow, I got the vague number a few days back that NDA will get 268. UPA at 112. Lets see how it goes.
I will put it at 262-268 currently for NDA.
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Denis
Week 6: 0 0 0 0 0 75 25
NDA Final Expected: 291
Week 6: 0 0 0 0 0 75 25
NDA Final Expected: 291
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Post Exit-Polls
Patni 0 0 0 0 5 70 25
NDA : 305
Patni 0 0 0 0 5 70 25
NDA : 305
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Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
post exit polls, but not considering exit polls: not much change from previous
B: 0 0 0 0 95 5 0
Number as I have been saying for some time now : 268
B: 0 0 0 0 95 5 0
Number as I have been saying for some time now : 268
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Post Exit Polls:
Mihaylo: 0 0 0 100 0 0 0
NDA: 260
Mihaylo: 0 0 0 100 0 0 0
NDA: 260
Last edited by Mihaylo on 13 May 2014 09:11, edited 2 times in total.
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
matrimc 0 0 10 30 45 10 5
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Narayana Rao
post poll
0 0 10 20, 50 10 10
post poll
0 0 10 20, 50 10 10
Re: BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?
Post poll: 0 0 0 0 0 25 75
NDA: 310
NDA: 310