Re: Indian investments thread
Posted: 08 May 2015 13:06
Its down low right now.
Consortium of Indian Defence Websites
https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/
Down = buying timearchan wrote:Its down low right now.
If we go by history, Bonds/FDs will help you keep up with the inflation. So If you are not looking for increase in purchasing power & want (expensive) comfort of certainty,Karthik S wrote:Gurus, will a long term government bond be a good option for pension?
Thank you. But aren't the coupon payments a fixed percentage of the bond's face value? If the interest rates are increased, wouldn't the price of the bond reduce and not that the coupon payment rates will increase accordingly?Vamsee wrote:If we go by history, Bonds/FDs will help you keep up with the inflation. So If you are not looking for increase in purchasing power & want (expensive) comfort of certainty,Karthik S wrote:Gurus, will a long term government bond be a good option for pension?
Govt Bonds are a good option
RBI is simplifying the procedure for Individuals to purchase & hold govt bonds. It is a good thing.
Also India is about to (or already has?) adopt explicit inflation targeting (4% + or - 2%) So that has some interesting implications. If Inflation is moving up, will RBI keep on increasing interest rates? Probably yes. I am simply not sure how this entire thing is going to play out.
Regards,
Vamsee
Yes. In fact I do not have money to invest & I am already 100% invested in equities :-(Gyan wrote:Re Vamsee
With the crash of the market, do you think any interesting opportunities are emerging in specific shares, which you may have been following?
Nice Thought and Advise , Thanks.Vamsee wrote:Everything depends on your situation Austin ji
1) Do you have any debt?
2) Does your spouse work? Same company/field or diff company/field
===================
Not particularly addressed at Austin ji. Just some general thoughts related to investment/personal finance/financial freedom.
In general I treat my job as "Fixed income" component. Since I know that I get salary every week, I do not need any Fixed deposits/Debt instruments.
I may switch to debt if equities are grossly overvalued, but right now it doesn't look like that. In fact in US Bonds are the biggest bubble right now(more accurately few of years ago). Buying bonds right now is equivalent of financial suicide.
For more than 50 years Americans faced a situation of total nuclear annihilation from Soviet Union. If someone looked at it and told himself that it is not "good time" to invest, he would have fared very badly in his life.
If things really go bats#it & you are very smart to put all your money in physical gold, what is the guarantee that your neighbor/govt/evil banks will not stab you and take it away?
There is always something or other to worry about in this world. The doomsdayers may be right & everything may go up in smoke. But equally one may die in an accident next day. We should go by probabilities while reducing weak-links in our financial chain.
Going in & out of equities hoping to catch the trends is not a terribly good idea. Much better is simply to ride both ups and downs. Over the years one will see the net worth grow substantially above inflation.
The way I prefer to manage my financial house is very simple
1) No debt. If there is one try to clear it as soon as I can. This is again controversial because people will show how leverage can boost returns etc and they are correct.
2) Have a medical insurance for everyone in the family. This is one thing which can destroy the financial castle.
4) Keep reasonable amount in emergency reserves. If we always pay-off credit cards, it can be tapped during emergencies. The amount in reserve depends on whether both are working or only one of them is working, how stable ones job is etc
5) Do not treat jewelery as investment. For Indians it is just a consumption item.
6) Do not treat primary residence as "investment". It sits between consumption & investment. If own house is the only asset in ones life, he may have mismanaged his finances.
7) It makes financial sense to put 100% of surplus money to work. If you are in India Govt punishes you for investing in debt/FD & rewards you for investing in equities (Dividends/LTCG = tax free!!!)
8 ) Stock markets go up/down. It is in its very nature. Complaining about it is like sitting on a roller-coaster and whining about lack of smooth ride.
9) Picking individual stocks is not for everybody. In fact for 99% of people doing SIP and treating it just like any other monthly bill is a superb option.
10) In equities if you ignore the first decade, rest of the life will be very comfortable. Hence starting early is very good option.
11) Making financial decisions based on what we read on zerohedge is surest path to financial ruin
Regards,
Vamsee
Actually we are trying to coax you to suggest some high value companies which you now think have "now" become fair value. or even better some multi baggers in makingVamsee wrote:Yes. In fact I do not have money to invest & I am already 100% invested in equities :-(Gyan wrote:Re Vamsee
With the crash of the market, do you think any interesting opportunities are emerging in specific shares, which you may have been following?
The unsustainable bubble in very high quality companies is slowly deflating which is a good thing (Did you see who much Astral fell from its 52 week high?).
Among large cap I like ITC & of course perennial favorite Gruh Finance.
There are a few interesting companies in mid-cap/small cap section but by nature they are more risky. That's why I usually do not mention them here.
Regards,
Vamsee
The pension regulator has allowed investment up to five per cent of the corpus of government employees in the National Pension System (NPS) in asset-backed securities. This could kick-start real estate investment trusts and infrastructure investment trusts.
Tweaking the investment pattern for government employees on recommendations of the G N Bajpai committee, the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) has raised the investment limit on non-government securities to 45 per cent. It reduced exposure to government securities to 50 per cent.
The changed pattern will be effective from June 10. The cap on equity investment stays at 15 per cent. Changes in the investment pattern for private sector employees are awaited.
Wonder why not invest 15-20 % in buying physical gold , should be a good hedge for investorsSuraj wrote:Using the follow the money approach:
Realty, core sector funds to get pension boostThe pension regulator has allowed investment up to five per cent of the corpus of government employees in the National Pension System (NPS) in asset-backed securities. This could kick-start real estate investment trusts and infrastructure investment trusts.
Tweaking the investment pattern for government employees on recommendations of the G N Bajpai committee, the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) has raised the investment limit on non-government securities to 45 per cent. It reduced exposure to government securities to 50 per cent.
The changed pattern will be effective from June 10. The cap on equity investment stays at 15 per cent. Changes in the investment pattern for private sector employees are awaited.
This is investments thread saararchan wrote:After a hiatus, looks like things might be warming up again. What's looking good for short term, BTST gambling?
Austin wrote:Nice Thought and Advise , Thanks.Vamsee wrote:Everything depends on your situation Austin ji
1) Do you have any debt?
2) Does your spouse work? Same company/field or diff company/field
===================
Not particularly addressed at Austin ji. Just some general thoughts related to investment/personal finance/financial freedom.
In general I treat my job as "Fixed income" component. Since I know that I get salary every week, I do not need any Fixed deposits/Debt instruments.
I may switch to debt if equities are grossly overvalued, but right now it doesn't look like that. In fact in US Bonds are the biggest bubble right now(more accurately few of years ago). Buying bonds right now is equivalent of financial suicide.
For more than 50 years Americans faced a situation of total nuclear annihilation from Soviet Union. If someone looked at it and told himself that it is not "good time" to invest, he would have fared very badly in his life.
If things really go bats#it & you are very smart to put all your money in physical gold, what is the guarantee that your neighbor/govt/evil banks will not stab you and take it away?
There is always something or other to worry about in this world. The doomsdayers may be right & everything may go up in smoke. But equally one may die in an accident next day. We should go by probabilities while reducing weak-links in our financial chain.
Going in & out of equities hoping to catch the trends is not a terribly good idea. Much better is simply to ride both ups and downs. Over the years one will see the net worth grow substantially above inflation.
The way I prefer to manage my financial house is very simple
1) No debt. If there is one try to clear it as soon as I can. This is again controversial because people will show how leverage can boost returns etc and they are correct.
2) Have a medical insurance for everyone in the family. This is one thing which can destroy the financial castle.
4) Keep reasonable amount in emergency reserves. If we always pay-off credit cards, it can be tapped during emergencies. The amount in reserve depends on whether both are working or only one of them is working, how stable ones job is etc
5) Do not treat jewelery as investment. For Indians it is just a consumption item.
6) Do not treat primary residence as "investment". It sits between consumption & investment. If own house is the only asset in ones life, he may have mismanaged his finances.
7) It makes financial sense to put 100% of surplus money to work. If you are in India Govt punishes you for investing in debt/FD & rewards you for investing in equities (Dividends/LTCG = tax free!!!)
8 ) Stock markets go up/down. It is in its very nature. Complaining about it is like sitting on a roller-coaster and whining about lack of smooth ride.
9) Picking individual stocks is not for everybody. In fact for 99% of people doing SIP and treating it just like any other monthly bill is a superb option.
10) In equities if you ignore the first decade, rest of the life will be very comfortable. Hence starting early is very good option.
11) Making financial decisions based on what we read on zerohedge is surest path to financial ruin
Regards,
Vamsee
Based on what you wrote it makes me think you are in US and not based in India.
Considering my past options and the current limited avenues I have for income I am very conservative in my financial thought process , so based on the fund I have or would have in near future. My Planned Break Up would be something like this
45 % in Post Office MIS/RD ( Guranteeds 8.3 % compound if stay invested for 5 years )
25 % in Physical Gold
25 % in Stock ( STP into MF via Debt Fund )
5-8 % in FD
If there is some decent source of income that comes by then I would invest in buying Physical Gold
I wonder if on this forum can have a look at my Debt Fund/MF I plan to invest in and give me an opinion ? I tried to do what I understand but then my understanding is limited too
kumarn wrote:Sugar!
This might be of interest to some. I havent personally checked the profitability of traders, due diligence is needed before acting on it, but a unique concept nevertheless ..archan wrote:After a hiatus, looks like things might be warming up again. What's looking good for short term, BTST gambling?
Also - be ready with some cash because there could possibly be a BREXIT related drop in stock indices (might happen as early as this Thursday !). We may get an opportunity to buy some of our "long-coveted-but-costly-to-buy" company shares and I surmise, we could possibly sell some gold etfs too during this ensuing time period !!.SaraLax wrote:Posting here after a long time. Hope all you people have been patiently, non-chalantly & thoughtfully dealing (even when facing tough times) with Indian stocks.
Since my last posts in this thread - i have been scrounging small quantities of below stocks & building up their numbers. I haven't sold any of my previously mentioned stocks and added more of Wabag when it fell down drastically into 450 INR levels.
Cholamandalam Finance - a Murugappa group entity and also a company that has come back from a previously bad state (made losses during its ill fated tango with Singapore's DBS bank). Actually Tube Investments (another group concern) - holds nearly 45% stake in this company & also holds complete ownership of Cholamandalam MS General Insurance (where it sold a 11% stake for ~900 odd crore INR recently to a Japanese company). But TI's primary business is related automobile parts & related engineering areas and hasn't moved much (even though its a solid stock) where as Chola Finance has been a 3 bagger over last 2 years. It has been making increasing revenues & profits consistently over last 2 years. But for the lack of an MF arm - i feel Chola Finance is trying to become a carbon copy of the behemoth Sundaram Finance (what with both being based out of same city). Right now - its hovering nearby its 52 week high and i have stopped accumulating this one.
Natco Pharma - is a bright, upcoming pharma company with the usual Andhra based pharma enterpreneurs (returned from US) and is actually a very pricy stock and is actually a 6 bagger since 2013 and had a stock split (1 : 5) last year.There was a momentary dip in the stock into 380 INR odd territory from 520 INR levels (in matter of 10 days) due to unconfirmed issues associated with FDA inspection of its manufacturing plants. I grabbed the chance at that stage and bought a few in those days. It again has now shot up beyond 500 INR. I don't know if this will bloom into a LUPIN type stock ... but hope to hold for a few more years and observe their capabilities as the entire pharma industry becomes more competitive with lots of new entrants & consolidation happening all around. Stopped accumulating this one too.
ICICI Bank - was getting hammered (& still does at times) for some time due to loads of bad loans on its balance sheets. But having seen - how it went deathly limp in 2009 and still rose like a phoenix afterwards - i wanted to buy this volatile stock & hold on to it for some time even though there may be other bank stocks with better potential for rising faster & rising longer. It went to 190 INR level a few months before. Its has many non-banking financial businesses too (insurance, MF & etc) under its hood.
Intellect Design Arena - a pure banking/finance/insurance software product company with many years of experience of operating in international financial sectors. It is an offshoot of Polaris Software (the services division was sold recently to Virtusa while products division became Intellect). Last year full revenue was ~800 Crores INR and it made a loss of 25 Crore INR. Its gross margins are 50%+ currently. They are spending money to recruit big names for sales & marketing of the products around the world. Its products (many are cloud deployed, some even have an UI on Apple's iWatch, revenues earned through SAAS model) are winning awards in various places around the world. Its more than doubled in last 2 years. Pure Software Product companies always seem to carry an higher PE than services type software companies. It appears to be a good bet but the space is very competitive and company is just about starting to make profits (first quarter of profit was in last quarter). Let's see how this goes.
Gold is the hedge for me against stocks - but it is also increasing in the recent past but mostly due to BREXIT fears, i guess.
A 916 points drop currently in BSE - with UK voting for BREXIT !.SaraLax wrote:Also - be ready with some cash because there could possibly be a BREXIT related drop in stock indices (might happen as early as this Thursday !). We may get an opportunity to buy some of our "long-coveted-but-costly-to-buy" company shares and I surmise, we could possibly sell some gold etfs too during this ensuing time period !!.SaraLax wrote:Posting here after a long time. Hope all you people have been patiently, non-chalantly & thoughtfully dealing (even when facing tough times) with Indian stocks.
Since my last posts in this thread - i have been scrounging small quantities of below stocks & building up their numbers. I haven't sold any of my previously mentioned stocks and added more of Wabag when it fell down drastically into 450 INR levels.
Cholamandalam Finance - a Murugappa group entity and also a company that has come back from a previously bad state (made losses during its ill fated tango with Singapore's DBS bank). Actually Tube Investments (another group concern) - holds nearly 45% stake in this company & also holds complete ownership of Cholamandalam MS General Insurance (where it sold a 11% stake for ~900 odd crore INR recently to a Japanese company). But TI's primary business is related automobile parts & related engineering areas and hasn't moved much (even though its a solid stock) where as Chola Finance has been a 3 bagger over last 2 years. It has been making increasing revenues & profits consistently over last 2 years. But for the lack of an MF arm - i feel Chola Finance is trying to become a carbon copy of the behemoth Sundaram Finance (what with both being based out of same city). Right now - its hovering nearby its 52 week high and i have stopped accumulating this one.
Natco Pharma - is a bright, upcoming pharma company with the usual Andhra based pharma enterpreneurs (returned from US) and is actually a very pricy stock and is actually a 6 bagger since 2013 and had a stock split (1 : 5) last year.There was a momentary dip in the stock into 380 INR odd territory from 520 INR levels (in matter of 10 days) due to unconfirmed issues associated with FDA inspection of its manufacturing plants. I grabbed the chance at that stage and bought a few in those days. It again has now shot up beyond 500 INR. I don't know if this will bloom into a LUPIN type stock ... but hope to hold for a few more years and observe their capabilities as the entire pharma industry becomes more competitive with lots of new entrants & consolidation happening all around. Stopped accumulating this one too.
ICICI Bank - was getting hammered (& still does at times) for some time due to loads of bad loans on its balance sheets. But having seen - how it went deathly limp in 2009 and still rose like a phoenix afterwards - i wanted to buy this volatile stock & hold on to it for some time even though there may be other bank stocks with better potential for rising faster & rising longer. It went to 190 INR level a few months before. Its has many non-banking financial businesses too (insurance, MF & etc) under its hood.
Intellect Design Arena - a pure banking/finance/insurance software product company with many years of experience of operating in international financial sectors. It is an offshoot of Polaris Software (the services division was sold recently to Virtusa while products division became Intellect). Last year full revenue was ~800 Crores INR and it made a loss of 25 Crore INR. Its gross margins are 50%+ currently. They are spending money to recruit big names for sales & marketing of the products around the world. Its products (many are cloud deployed, some even have an UI on Apple's iWatch, revenues earned through SAAS model) are winning awards in various places around the world. Its more than doubled in last 2 years. Pure Software Product companies always seem to carry an higher PE than services type software companies. It appears to be a good bet but the space is very competitive and company is just about starting to make profits (first quarter of profit was in last quarter). Let's see how this goes.
Gold is the hedge for me against stocks - but it is also increasing in the recent past but mostly due to BREXIT fears, i guess.
Never buy on the 1st day of a drop, based on experience, if things drop they keep the trend for atleast a week or 2 when they reach near the bottom.kvraghav wrote:Good time to buy. Sentimental selling is going on. Planning to buy Tata Motors hoping JLR will make some good profits and sales.