Possible Indian Military Scenarios - Part I

[Sunil]

The Awakening: Parallel II.

part 1: "The Bayat of Blood"

Col. Shams-ur-Rehman was a quiet sort of fellow. Most of his fellow BDA officers mistook him for a bit of a dullard. His career graph hadn't been anything spectacular, he seemed to have been through the motions at all the major institutions in the Bangladeshi Army but no one could really recall a single thing about him. A glance at his Confidential Record too would reveal nothing of interest, he was once a commissioned officer of the Pakistani Army stationed in East Pakistan. After the war of liberation, Col. Shams had stayed on with the BDA and gone on to an uneventful rise through the ranks. At the ripe age of 55, most of Col. Shams' friends had figured that Shams would retire soon and move on to a job in the private sector.

What had gone unnoticed by most people was Col. Shams association with his first commanding officer Col. Allauddin of the Pakistan Army. The two had remained in touch long after the events of 1971. Col. Shams had made several trips to Pakistan as Col. Allauddin's guest and Col. Allauddin had visited Col. Shams several times too. Col. Allauddin had retired from the Pakistan Army in 1979 and opened a small business in his native town of Kohat. No one in Dhaka had a clue as to what Col. Allauddin did or why the two men shared such a close friendship.

Fewer people still would know that Col. Shams had functioned as a go-between for the BDA-DGFI and a section of the HUJI during the period of the Afghan War or that Col. Shams had organized the transit of the first round of Bangladeshi recruits for the Afghan Jihad. Why would people pay attention to this? after all the camera and press clipping were hogged by the supporters of the Jamaat-e-Islami. How could people notice a little man like Col. Shams when every newspaperman had focussed on the return of the Jamaat-e-Islami leader to Bangladesh in 1981? Who paid attention to little people in the BDA anyway? Why investigate the involvement of a minor official in the drug trade when the former President Gen. Ershad was himself reputed to be involved in the BCCI scam?... no one cared and no one noticed.

That is why most people would have been very surprised to find Col. Shams standing in civil dress in a cold dark corner of Chittagong port in the pouring rain watching as barge after barge deposited groups of fit looking arab and pakistani men onto the shore from a merchant ship, the MV Hejaz. Col. Shams' squad examined each of their documents and loaded them on to unmarked trucks and drove them out of the port. As the 15th barge docked on the jetty, a young officer of the DGFI shuffled up to Col. Shams, saluted him crisply and said " Janaab, Mission Kaamyaab hua hain". The Col. nodded, approximately 1200 al qaeeda trainees, had just been offloaded. Hardened fighters from the Afghan and Kashmir Jihads, these boys were the cream of the HuM -HUJI's elite fighting squadrons. Atleast a hundred of them were trained in all sorts of suicide attacks. As the last truck departed, Col. Shams boarded an unmarked staff car and headed towards the ad-hoc brigade HQ at Jhili some 10 miles away.

Jhili was not even on a map but at this point some 4000 al qaeeda fighters were parked in a makeshift camp there along with an equal number of BDA light infantry troops. The BDA troops were all carefully drawn from relatives of Jamaat-e-Islami people and Razakars. Each man was deeply religious and had been imparted a classical madrissa education. As the final contingent of Al Qaeeda arrived. The Col asked to speak to all the troops. The BDA officers roused up the troops and assembled the lot.

As it rained mercilessly some ten thousand men of strong Islamist leanings stood shoulder to shoulder. The dimunitive Col. Shams climbed atop an unmarked truck parked in front of the crowd. With the rising sun to his back, with a quiet and yet confident voice he began,

" Bismillah-ar-Rehmaan-ur-Raheem.

My brothers in the cause of Islam, I welcome you to the Ma-askar al Badr at Jhili. We are gathered here today to set foot into a new age of light. We are the flame that shall drive away the darkness and ignorance that has taken over this hallowed land. Our task is to join in the purifying cause of the Jihad here. We are to become the fire that cleanses this world of the Satan and his minions.

A struggle such as this will not come without sacrifice. Sacrifice of our blood - and such indeed is the way of the Jihad. I ask you make with me a bayat - a bayat of blood - that you will never falter, never be left wanting as we walk in the path of the Jihad set for us by Hazrat Usama Bin Laden and Hazrat Abdallah Azzam.

Join me brothers, as I hold Allah as my witness and pledge my blood to the cause."

Carefully raising his hand, he spied out of the corner of his eyes, the other officers of the DGFI and BDA follow his lead.

"Allah Ho Akbar... " the chants began.... and the thousands assembled began to speak at once.

As the bayat of blood was taken, a loudspeaker from a nearby mosque began the call to morning prayer...

A school teacher in the nearby town had stayed awake through the night. What else could he do with the constant rumbling of the trucks? In the wee hours of the morning, the tired school teacher could now hear the words of the Col and his men as they chanted the bayat at the top of their voices. Reaching for a piece of paper on which one of his tution students had pencilled the poetry of Tagore, with an old pencil, the school teacher began to write out the words of the bayat on the back of the paper. After the Azaan was over, the teacher climbed his bicycle he headed off in the direction of Chittagong. By the end of the day, a small time local newspaper reporter was sitting on a mountain of information that pointed to very strange events at Jhili. Quite predictably in the late evening that day, the events at Jhili were being discussed in a small conference room in the CGO complex at Dhaula Kuan in New Delhi.

[Rudradev]

Nice scenario SS.


Here's a suggestion-- only if it's OK with GD though, and enough people are interested to make it work.

GD has laid out an excellent basis for an entirely believable scenario in his first four chapters. Instead of letting him do all the hard work and lapping it up from now on, how about turning this into an actual wargame?

It would work something like this. There would be a Team Blue (playing the role of India) and a Team Red (playing BD-Pak-China), each comprised of one or more BR-ites who would be in mutual contact via email. There would have to be an Umpire who would necessarily be an Uber-garu of BR, with profound technical knowledge. Additionally, there could also be a Team White taking the role of the media and the international community (mainly US, but also UN, EU, Russia, Gulf States etc.)

This would of course, not be a real-time exercise like Leila I. Rather, it would be an attempt to bring our combined expertise to bear on forging one single scenario instead of everyone coming up with their own scenarios.

The methodology could be as follows:

1) Team Blue and Team Red confer amongst themselves via email. They determine what action they will take over the next 24 hours (game-time), in response to whatever information has been made public by the Umpire on the forums so far.

2) Every 24-48 hours (real time), Team Blue and Team Red send the outline of their intended actions for the next 24 hours (game time) to the Umpire via email.

3) The Umpire considers each round of submissions from Team Blue and Team Red, determines the outcome of their actions as well as the likely results of any military engagements etc. (this is why he has to be an Uber-garu) . The Umpire then publishes the results of his determination... or at least, as much information from those results as he thinks should be made available to the two teams... on this thread.

4) Team White may also contact the Umpire with inputs from the international community, that he will then take into account in determining results.

5) Teams Red, Blue and White may "negotiate" with each other via email, but Umpire MUST be CC'ed on all communications.

6) Though only the Umpire's results posted on this thread are indicative of "reality", Teams Red, Blue and White can freely post "press releases" from their sides on this thread as long as they are identified as such.

Does this sound interesting/workable? I nominate GD for Umpire The end result would be that he would have all of these inputs to help him write his story, but the final decision on what happens would be his all the time. The whole process might be more exciting for everybody if that element of uncertainty was introduced.

[Sunil]

Rudradev,

I want to work on this Col. Shams thing. I think it has major story potential and a cool work of fiction.

[Sharma]

This is very intresting to listen. I will be very glad to become part of it. But how we are going to divide ourselfs among Raed, Blue and White team, I mean what if every one want to become Blue team...My point of cencern is that all the persons here have diff knowledge and analytical skill level therefore all the teams should be equaly balanced as per their roles.

[Singha]

I will post the next small chapter late on friday night EST. work and family are keeping me at overclocked cycles these days.

But the arrival of S2 and Rudradev signifies you guys are
doing just fine

multiple stories and different stories can be weaved together here like those tricky books wherein they say "if u want to stay with alice go to page2", " if u want to peep in the girls hostel go to page10" ....

I am willing to be a umpire, but note your wargame format is more difficult and needs constant attention & coordination during the period it is played.

you need to find some good "pakthink" types
they have to be brilliant and cohesive yet exhibit certain strategic myopia and a tendency to panic and fall apart when faced with sustained adversity. men of strong and violent religiosity, of a austere devotion to their army and to their self created religious mission. they must be willing to commit any crime, break any law. the couple of Colonels S2 has produced are a good example, standing there all night in the rain baying for blood.


some of the old "think like a paki thread" veterans should be drafted into the BD/Paki team.

[Sunil]

The Awakening: Parallel II.
Part 1: The Bayat of Blood

Part 2: Laskhar Ababeel.

In a large house in Dhaka, Maulana Nazrul Islam listened carefully to what the messenger from Jhili had to say and simply nodded his head. The staff at the Maulana's house proceeded to offer the messenger some food and refreshements, and the Maulana retired to his room. Things had so far proceeded smoothly under the military government, much smoother than the time of the civilian PM before that and certainly fantastically smoother than the Hasina period. However as Amir of the HUJI (Bangladesh), Maulana Nazrul had a deeply ingrained sense of paranoia. He knew that the military government would watch him even more closely than the civilians ever did, so he would only have to be more careful. Civilians were quite stupid but they were seldom methodical, the army - they combined both stupidity and methodical behavior - to the Maulana that made them even more dangerous.

As a veteran of the Afghan Jihad, Maulana Nazrul was no stranger to violence, he was also acutely aware that despite all appearances of unity, the Islamists of Bangladesh were a divided lot. Keeping them under control would require considerable exertion. The JEI leader Moti-ur-Rehmaan Nizami had just called for a grand shura of Islamist leaders in Bangladesh. The shura was expected to endorse the military coup. It was Maulana Nazrul's job to ensure that all the invitees stuck to the agenda. Moti-ur-Rehmaan was an interesting sort of chap, not only was he pro-Pakistani, the Pakistanis for their part knew more about him than they let on. What the Pakistanis knew, they told Maulana Nazrul. The Shura would end with a call by Moti-ur-Rehmaan for a jana andolan, a massive public rally in support of the military government. The Rally would offer Maulana Nazrul his chance.

Later that evening, Maulana Nazrul departed in a secretive fashion from his house. The NSI operatives detailed to keep track of his movements failed to notice the significance of the fact that the woman who came to the Maulana's house in a burqa, and the woman that left were not of the same height. Had they payed attention to the length of the abaya they would have noticed, but it was dark and there was no real sense of urgency, the Maulana was well liked by the present government. After dumping the abaya, Maulana Nazrul proceeded to a small mosque east of Dhaka. At the mosque he was recived by Mufti Safi ur Rehmaan, Mufti Abdul Hye, and Maulana Baqi Billah. Maulana Abdur Rouf, and Maulana Salahul Islam also joined them in half an hour. The last to arrive was another man from Jhili. And so the meeting began.

There was intense debate about the nature of the coup. Maulana Baqi Billah was vehement in the assertion that the US had tacitly accepted if not encouraged the coup. He brought with him reports of suspicious meetings between a US consular official and the ADC to the COAS of the BDA. Maulana Salahul Islam expressed concern that despite the enthusiasm expressed by Moti-ur-Rehmaan, the military government would ultimately turn against the Islamists like it had in Pakistan in 2001. Mufti Abdur Rouf pointed out that the economy of Bangladesh was still dependent on foriegn aid and Mufti Safi said that there were unpaid loans with the World Bank, and that though these were unislamic, the prospect of recieving cash from the US would make any military regime in Bangladesh very pliable for the US. The man from Jhili was silent throughout the discussion and so was Mufti Hye. An air of concern appeared to have entered Maulana Nazrul Islam's voice too when he indicated that his emissaries to the Pakistani and Chinese brigade commanders had come back without any concrete expressions of support. Maulana Nazrul suddenly turned to Mufti Safi ur Rehmaan, Maulana Salahul Islam, Maulana Baqi Billah and Mufti Rouf and thanked them for having brought their views to his attention. Taking their cue, the four men got up and took their leave. Mufti Hye and the man from Jhili continued to sit in their place.

After a short break, Maulana Nazrul returned to the conclave. He spoke in a soft voice,

" My friends, we are faced with an imminent crisis. The military goverment has seized power from the civilian govt, but unlike the situation before where one could play off the interests of the military against the civilian leadership, there is no effective counterbalance to the military. The military commanders move without fear and that could become the source of trouble. There is nothing in principle that prevents them from acting against us if nothing else to appease the US.

We must therefore indicate to the military that we are not entirely powerless to stop them. This will create a vital balance of authority. We still need the military to govern the country and to impose its will on the civilians but we do not want them to put us in the same position that our brothers in Pakistan are in. We must assert an independent line of thinking and a credible challenge to the military. Otherwise there will be no way to make them adhere to their promises of Islamic re-structuring of this land.

I propose that we raise a laskhar, one that can if need be do battle with the enemies of Islam should they invade the military. This is out of the capability of the ICS or the Bangladeshi Taliban and can only come from you (turning towards the man from Jhili). I shall call your special force - the Laskhar Ababeel. May their vengeance descend upon our enemies. Mufti Hye there is to be a rally in Dhaka in support of the military government. Please see to it that the Lashkar Ababeel gets what cooperation it needs in this regard."

After that Maulana Nazrul Islam paused and nodded. Taking his hint, Mufti Hye left the venue.

Only Maulana Nazrul and the man from Jhili remained. For the first time the man from Jhili spoke:

"Peer Sahab Huzoor, the brothers will follow in the footsteps of the great ones. But before we cast off on this journey, I suggest we wait as our friends shall soon arrive and bring with them a mighty hikmat. Once we are bestowed with such a hikmat, no jokhim will seem harsh. Please await my signal before committing to anything."

and with a curt "Allah Hafiz" he too left.

The khatib of the mosque was quite delighted to have such important people grace his humble abode and yet found the request for absolute secrecy quite baffling. The pious Khatib asked the Maulana what this was all about? as the Maulana stepped out of the Mosque he turned towards the Khatib and said, "await my friend, the coming of the Ababeel" and then he smiled and left. The aged Khatib found the reply strange and began to stare with an air of confusion at the sky....

[bhavani]

I am posting this possible Scenario. Admin PLease delete this if you find it irrelevent to India's context. But i think this is a scenario that can happen.
guys let me know how it is. I think it is relevant to india as the Scenario unfolds

Scenario: Blood on the Sand

Time: 2.00AM
Date: 24-11-2005
Place: Dammam

A Freighter flying a British flag arrives at the Port of Dammam. The ship is docked at a far away berth far from normal operations. The cargo is handled by the Agents belonging to Saudi Intelligence. The Cargo is taken directly to the military city of Khamis Mushyat.

On the Same day a Squadron of F-15C and Tornados leave Khamis Mushyat and reaches Al Kharj Air base near Riyadh. A Specially modified C-130H leaves Khamis Mushyat for Al Sulayyil on 27-11-2005. Another modified C-130H leaves Khamis Mushyat and reaches hafr-al-batin. On 28-11-2005 there is a private meeting at the house of general Mohammed Taysir of Saudi army was attended by Admiral Abdul-Fattah Wahid of Saudi Navy, General Nawaf Alhazmi of the Saudi intelligence, general Aslam Hudhayfah of Saudi army, general Saleh al-Mahya of Saudi Air force. These men are not the chiefs of staff of the Saudi Services, but they effectively controlled the major fighting portion of the Saudi armed forces. Mohammed taysir was a western educated person and he held control of the military city of Khamis Mushyat, he had very good relations and a lot of loyal officers in all the sections of Saudi Army. He was not a popular person with the royal family as he was one of the generals who opposed the deployment of American forces. Nawaf Alhazmi was a very important person in the Saudi intelligence service. He has very good contacts with Chinese intelligence and Pakistani intelligence. He was primarily responsible for development of a relationship between Chinese and Saudi Armies which of course was mediated by Pakistani Intelligence services. Some of their other associates like General Muhammad Numair were overseeing other arrangements. Colonel Imad al Din of the Omar bin kattab regiment of Saudi National Guard was also present at their meeting and he is the most important person in the smooth working of the plan as he would bring two entire brigades of the SANG (Saudi Arabia national guard) on to their side. SANG was supposed to act as a counterbalance in case of the army trying to eliminate the royal family. His inclusion in this team is very important as his 1000 LAV 8 wheeled vehicles will be very useful in suppressing unrest in the populous places and more than any thing the SANG handles the safety of the two Primary holy regions of Mecca and medina.


Time 4.15AM
Date 01-12-2005
Place – Hafar Al-Batin, King Kkalid military city

A Bell 212 carrying General Muhammad Numair of the Royal Saudi Army Lands and is received by Colonel Abd el Malik of the 2nd Mechanized brigade. Abrams rumble towards the Part of the city where the 1000 odd American advisors and technicians reside, Protected by a small garrison of marines and Royal guard regiment. There is Fierce but small fight and they are easily overcome and by about 4:45 the complex is under their control. The Other military cities at Tabuk, Khamis Mushyat fall easily and painlessly as the small resistance of the royal guards is overcome easily and nearly all of them defect to the other side.



Time: 5.00 AM
Date: 02-12-2005
Place –Riyadh,


Disturbing the early morning quietness, an entire division of the Saudi Army rumbles across the Main Cross roads of the Saudi Capital. Choppers come suddenly flying across the skies of Riyadh as the Special operations troops and well-trained operatives of Al-queda are dropped on the Palace grounds of Saudi-royal family. The Troops of Royal guard Regiment and American CIA Operatives protecting the King put up a determined fight, but are easily over come due to the superior number of troops and King Fahd is Captured and taken to an unknown location. This operation is led by colonel Abdul-Muhaimin of the 8th armored brigade from the Assad military city 100 miles south-east of Riyadh near Al-kharj.

[Singha]

good work S2 and Bhavani. S2's immense knowledge of the army of islam & ISI modus operandi should be able to create the necessary degree of mayhem in BD.

meantime, a lot of hectic activity has been observed at the PMs residence by political observers. Under direct orders, the national security adviser Dayvik Salgotra cuts short a visit to washington and returns. So do two other important people, chairman of joint chiefs Gen Sastry from south africa and Navy eastern command chief Koshy from singapore.

Clearly big meetings are going to happen shortly.

A report from Mossad arrives at RAW regarding movement of
a suspect 'special cargo' onto a Karachi freighter. Ship reported
to have sailed for unknown destination with a PN frigate Mansoor and a corvette Ghori as escort.

[Rudradev]

Very broad strokes, if I had the ear of the Indian strategists, I would advise:

1) Play taut defense in the East, inflicting attritive losses with naval and air power. The Red units described in GD's Chapter 2 haven't got an indefinite amount of fight in them... not if you're thinking in terms of week after week of chipping at them and choking off their supplies.

2) Once TSP has committed as much as its going to commit to the BD front...Open a land front up with TSP in the West!

3) As far as China is concerned: send them a message that they need to pull out of this completely, and *any* further interference by them will incur the maximum penalty. Leave them in no doubt as to our political will to follow through. This of course is the diciest one. Will we have weaponized Agni III deployment by this time?

[Singha]

R1, I am of the opinion when giants fight, its often not directly
but in a proxy battlefield with manageably low forces and escalative potential which need not climb the ladder into a full blown war. politically also its easier to sell.

So am against idea of opening a western front on TSP/PLA. the problem right now is not TSP, but TSP-China-BD in BD.

Its more important to annihilate this new enclave WITH the Pa and PLa entourage , to humiliate and demoralize the main countries involved. attacking a PLA bridgade in Tibet means war, attacking the PLA foreign legion in BD doesnt mean a india-china general war.

more tomorrow.

p.s. if Muskrat loses two brigades, two sqdns of precious fighters
and the entire Bayat-for-blood brigade his life wont be worth
much. the next guy in line will be free to make his move. US support will likely be withdrawn from Mush if/when he indulges in this kind of adventure.

[Sunil]

As you guys have probably guessed by now, I am recycling material developed in the context of the Leila-1 Wargame.

Before we climb the escalatory ladder it is imperative that we understand the enemy. So my objective behind working in this scenario writing thread is to enhance my understanding of the inner functioning of Bangladesh.

If you look carefully at what has been done so far on this thread you will see the following:

1) MTSingha has identified the fragile nature of key lines of communication in the NE. He has highlighted the anti-India feelings inside the top levels of the BDA and the erratic nature of the relationship between the BDA and the civilian leadership. He has also spoken of the desire in the BDA to leverage India by forging closer ties with China and Pakistan.

2) Rudradev has pointed out the possibility that the presence of a pronounced anti-India stance in Bangladesh will encourage terrorist violence in the NE.

3) My posts have pointed to the growth of Islamist influences within the BDA and the rise of Al Qaida type philosophies and the potential for an internal clash within the two groups.

I like R1's idea about splitting up the workload, but I propose a slight shift. I propose that the teams chase up the following issues:

1) PA BDA cooperation: Some work has been done here, add to it if you can.

2) BDA-PLA cooperation: The PLA will have to launch maneuvers along the LAC to tie down India's military forces in the region. This needs a lot more work.

3) Islamists and the BDA: A clash of interests. (I can handle this)

4) The Economics of the Coup: (talk about the underworld economy of Bangladesh, the market in narcotics, arms and human traffic that exists in Bangladesh and how it reacts to the coup).

5) The International Interventionists and their agendas: Some work has been done here too, but one needs to flesh out the groups on the ground and specifics therein.

I want to see a believeable story, with all the human links that you can possibly stuff in there. If someone writes that BDA officer Maj. Gen. Haque and the PLA Gen. Chen met in a massage parlor in Bangkok and came up with a plan for the joint defence of Bangladesh - then that isn't particularly credible. But if you talk about institutional cooperation between BDA and the PLA and about the role played by officers seconded to each others' training institutions in carving out a joint defence strategy, that is credible.

So before you rollout the Composite Flight 196 from Aizawal, spend time working out what will happen at the BD end.

We can all churn out scenarios where India wins in the end - but then there would be no difference between us and that idiot Tom Clancy.

[Sharma]

I think your scenario will be incomplete without mentioning role of Myanmar in it. So far India-Myanmar relations are foggy in wake of India's confused stand reagrding it. All the time Indian leadership is confused if to support( & get supported too) military rulers or the democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi. If the scenario you people are discussing comes up than India have to have clear her stand upon her relations with Myanmar because trouble will increase many folds if another front(PLA) opens up for IA forces to fight against ( MAY HAPPEN).

Somebody here should address it too as it will cost India dear it not handled properly.

[Sunil]

The Awakening: Parallel II
Part 1: The Bayat of Blood
Part 2: Lashkar Ababeel

Part 3: Ibadat

The men were standing in a circle around the colonel's desk. It was almost twilight and in the dim light above his desk, Col. Shams was poring through some papers in front of him. The men cast shadows that added to the nuisance of the poor lighting but they had been assembled by the Col's executive officer and could hardly be blamed for this situation. There were two officers from the BDA unit and two HUJI regulars both Pakistani, a fifth man also was present, he had an sense of aloofness. This was Nasir.

Nasir was unusual both in terms of his looks as well as his demeanor. Nasir was fairer than the Pakistanis, and more reserved than the Arabs. He spoke in urdu occasionally and when he did it betrayed a very textbook feel. The rapid fire colloquial Urdu that most native speakers have was absent. There was also almost no trace of an accent. Whenever he stuck English words into his Urdu, the words seemed to have a peculiar pronounciation and cadence but few could place it exactly.

Nasir's history was black box even to Col. Shams. Perhaps Col. Allauddin knew a little more but probably not much. Gossip about Nasir among his Jihadi buddies had it that Nasir was not his real name and that the man who called himself Nasir, had officially been declared dead years ago but that was all. Col. Shams only knew that Nasir was very highly technically qualified. He was the best man for anything that might involve a large degree of technical complexity. So far Col. Shams had used him to put together a series of highly advanced bombs triggered by cellphones but the task ahead would be even more complicated.

After reading and re-reading the letters in arabic on his desk, the Col. looked up at the men around him and sighed. Staring Nasir in the eye, Col. Shams began to intone a verse from the Quran Sharif,

"I have not created the jinn and humankind for any other purpose except that they should worship Me." (Al-Qur'an 51:56)

Nasir looked puzzled. The Col. smiled and said,

" You know Nasir, Maulana Maudoodi once commented on this sura, and said - it is clear from this sura that the purpose of your birth and of your life is no other than that of the worship of Allah. This is the meaning of `Ibadat'. If you will not know the real meaning of the word Ibadat, you will not be able to fulfil the very purpose for which you have been created."

Nasir replied " And..."

Col. Shams continued, " I think Allah has chosen you to seek out the meaning of this word `Ibadat' ... "

And with that Col Shams began to speak of the task that lay before them, the men listened with great interest. An hour or so later, Col. Shams appeared to conclude his monologue, and the men sat around him their faces drained of color. The Col's plan was audacious, and yet simple. When completed it would turn the tide of the Global Jihad and victory would come flying into the arms of the righteous ones. It was truly wonderous that something could be so simple and yet so overwhelming.

Nasir broke the silence and stated that he would need support, maps mostly and he would need someone to plan the route.

He could do the major calculations needed by extending the basic ideas that he recalled from a course at the Al Badr Camp at Ugi near Mansehra. He was not familiar per se with this kind of "thing" but the electronics would not be a problem. One of the Bangladeshi officers volunteered to get the maps and the necessary route calculations.

"So Janaab, when do we get to see this great hikmat?" said the other Bangladeshi officer to the Col.

"Tonight" replied the colonel

A few minutes later an ADC appeared at the door, and informed the Col. that his unmarked truck was ready. Without any further discussion the five men followed the Col. as he marched out the door. The driver of vehicle was asked to stand down, and one of the Bangladeshi officers took the wheel. The drive lasted about half an hour and the men soon found themselves on a darkened beach somewhere along the Chittagong coast. In the distance one could see a number of small fishing vessels and further out a ship of some sort lay with very few lights.

Out of the growing darkness a light emerged, and the colonel reached for his flashlight and signalled back. Simple and robust, thought Nasir, in an age where people needed satellites for everything, this old fashionined method of communication was virtually impenetrable. Soon the sound of a boat approaching the water's edge could be heard. The Col barked an identification phrase and upon recieving the correct answer - proceeded towards the boat. Four men were on the boat. They offloaded six boxes. The boxes were then loaded into the back of Col. Shams' truck. The Col and his men boarded the truck and drove off.

After reaching a secluded house north of the beach at the Colonel's direction, the boxes were opened by the five people. Nasir quickly recognized the basic components and began unpacking the rudimentary electronics that was packed in a waterproof casing. The detonators were packed separately and so were the charges. After a few hours of reading the assembly instructions in urdu, Nasir began to stitch together the first of the lot. He carefully pulled out the coffee can sized aluminium cannister and put them into the accompanying canvas coverall. He then inserted the detonators into the devices and began wiring the electronic control unit to the detonators. Pretty soon the "thing" was ready. Nasir began to key in a series of access codes into the electronic control unit and that let him access a number of functions. He then carefully explained the procedure to the others in his team.

The hikmat was truly a masterpiece, small and robust it offered all the advantages of the real thing, without any of its complications. Story had it that the leaders of the Jihad had come into possession of these in the early years of the movement, but the explosive charges were duds. It had taken the better part of the decade producing replacement charges at several places. The work had been hard and it was almost discovered once. The Pakistani science community had been a great help, their knowledge of the clandestine material market had helped cut costs and actually get things done on time. So now finally the Zarb-e-Mumin fit into a modest canvas bag that could be carried by a lone mujahid.

With the securing of the first, an assembly line process was set up to make the others. Pretty soon all six were assembled and the envelope containing the access codes for the electronics was handed over to Col. Shams.

It was all upto Col. Shams now and the BDA officer to come up with the transportation - and the rest was in the hands of Allah.

[chilarai]

I can make a pdf doc out of this if there are no copyright issues , which can be later put up at BR for download. also do a spell check on the way.
let me know if its okay

Admins Note:

Anything off the forum is copyright BR. Contact Admin.

[ramana]

So sunil that is what Richard Reid "shoe bomber"'s teachers were perfecting! And isnt six an overkill?

[bhavani]

I am posting the continuation of the blood on the sand. Anybody just tell me if this seems possible. BTW ADMIN There is no member tag under my name. Am i not a member of BRF

Continuation of the Blood on the Sand

2 Days before the Events of DEC 1st.


Time: 2.00Pm
Date: 28-11-2005
Location: NRO Chantilly VA


Lt. Larry Chapman, is in a bad mood today as his wife threatened him today that she is gonna file a divorce. He is watching over the real time information being relayed by the KH-11 passing over Saudi Arabia at the NRO at Chantilly VA. He sees an unlikely concentration of a large number of trucks and vehicles around Al Sulayyil. He thinks it to be a routine overhaul of the CSS-2’s stored there and he takes a note of it and reports it to his superior at around 3.00Pm. After watching the pictures his superior Major Rick Jones reports it to the Pentagon immediately. At around 9.00pm Data from the Satellites imagery is being evaluated . The pentagon comes to a conclusion that the equipment they see is being used to handle nuclear weapons. The deputy Secretary of defense is notified and immediately CIA contacts in the Area around the missile site are notified. The US DOD decides to send a warning to the Saudi embassy regarding the finding of the nuclear handling equipment site. But the American President is on a state visit to Russia and it is considered untimely to send any unwanted messages to Saudi Arabia. A US Navy Carrier fleet is ordered to Gulf of Oman. US central command center based at Qatar takes additional steps in improving the combat readiness of their fighter fleet. Further surveillance of the Saudi Army cities is increased particularly of the King khalid military city and port of Dammam.
Time: 3.00AM
Date: 29-11-2005
Location: Jiddah

Dr. Ishfaq Ahmed arrives in jiddah international airport through a normal PIA flight with two of his associates. He arrives with a Pakistani business delegation. He is now carrying the papers of a jute trader from Lahore. He was preceded by about 400 Pakistani technicians who arrived by different flights through various routes. About 200 technicians are relocated from Nigeria. He is a senior scientist who was deeply involved in the building of Pakistani weapons based on the Chinese designs. He met with General Mohammed Taysir in Islamabad . The meet was arranged by Lt. General Iftikar gilani of the Pakistani Army. The meet at the “Marriott Islamabad” lasted about 6 hours. He along with Dr. Abdul-Khaaliq met with General Nawaf Alhazmi, Mohammed Taysir, Aaslam Hudhayfah at London. The Meeting lasted for about 3 hours.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Returning to the ongoing Events
Time: 6.00AM
Place: Al Mudinah
Date: 01-12-2005

Troops Scramble of the trucks surrounding and taking control of the holy place. Little or no resistance is offered by the Saudi National Guard as Troops take control of the holy shrines of Mecca and Medina. RSAF Tornadoes and F-15 taking off from Al Kharj and hafar-Al-batin start air combat patrols over the capital and oil rich Persian gulf. All the military cities fall to the rebellion and controls passes into the hands of the Saudi military. There is a mute response from the countries elite as the Royal family and its supporters are butchered. About 5000 American, British, and other western citizens are captured and taken to unknown locations.

Time: 8.00AM
Location: Pentagon

Pentagon realizes fully the complete scale of the coup in Saudi Arabia. Combat units around Qatar are put on high alert and plans are being made to launch air strikes. The F-117’s are placed at high alert. Satellite recon shows Saudi naval ships leaving port.
American president is notified while he is on return journey from Russia on-board the Air force -1.

Time: 9.45AM

A new Government is formed in Saudi Arabia headed by general Mohammed Taysir. He proclaims the formation of Islamic government which will not bend its head to the orders of western countries. He warns other countries from taking any action. The Saudi army and Guards are involved in crushing the Local Sheikdoms spread across the country. By the sun dawn the country goes firmly into the control of the Army. As the Dust settles the Western countries start thinking about an appropriate course of action. The President of America tells that they are going to take Swift and fast action and give the Royal family its rightful place. But before they can take any action Satellites reveal further about the Saudi Nukes. It is revealed that Saudi Arabia has nukes and they are already in a ready to launch position. Video of a Nuke ready to be fired from a missile and the missile is not a CSS-2 but a copy of Tapeo-dong-2 is shown in a grainy video on the Saudi national network as an official statement is given by the new Saudi rulers. By Evening it is revealed that Saudis have at least 6 or 7 nukes American satellite imagery reveals a Modified tornado carrying what looks like a nuclear weapon escorted by about 4 F-15 and supported by an E-3 practicing Dropping a nuke in the Desert sands. The Pilot practicing is not a Saudi Air force pilot but a Pakistani pilot who arrived about 2 months before with about 20 of his fellow pilots as a tourist. The tapeodong with its range of 3000Km brings all of the Middle East under the umbrella of Saudi nukes. The Israeli’s start planning about surgical strikes to take out the Missiles. The Price of a barrel of Oil sky rockets as hundreds of Oil tankers are stuck at the Saudi ports and the news of takeover reaches the market.

[Singha]

Abhijit Ray, once each page heads over into the next page then
its worth it making a PDF doc but not before. eventually if this thread runs to say 5 pages, then 5 PDF files can be made and if possible joined together somehow.

thanks

[chilarai]

MTS,

what I had in mind is putting it in a book format , using latex and uploading to
tripod or something .. and adding to the main doc .. say every 4 days or so

merging , adding or editing later etc should be no problem ..

[Luxtor]

I think your scenario will be incomplete without mentioning role of Myanmar in it. So far India-Myanmar relations are foggy in wake of India's confused stand reagrding it. All the time Indian leadership is confused if to support( & get supported too) military rulers or the democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi. If the scenario you people are discussing comes up than India have to have clear her stand upon her relations with Myanmar because trouble will increase many folds if another front(PLA) opens up for IA forces to fight against ( MAY HAPPEN).

Somebody here should address it too as it will cost India dear it not handled properly.

India should be pragmatic about its relationship with Myanmar. We should support Myanmar whether they have democratic or military gov't. Just like the U.S. with Pukistan. We need to let the Myanmaries understand that India will support them no matter what. This way we can weed them away from having to depend on the Chinese.

[Singha]

wise words Luxtor. a high-minded insistence on the Democracy test and HR test is best left to the west europeans and their uber liberal Guvmints.

Ray sahab, I have no objection to anyone picking up or modifying or adapting my work so long as my acronym "MT singha" is also credited. think of it as a GNU copyleft license

[Sharma]

I think your scenario will be incomplete without mentioning role of Myanmar in it. So far India-Myanmar relations are foggy in wake of India's confused stand reagrding it. All the time Indian leadership is confused if to support( & get supported too) military rulers or the democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi. If the scenario you people are discussing comes up than India have to have clear her stand upon her relations with Myanmar because trouble will increase many folds if another front(PLA) opens up for IA forces to fight against ( MAY HAPPEN).

Somebody here should address it too as it will cost India dear it not handled properly.

India should be pragmatic about its relationship with Myanmar. We should support Myanmar whether they have democratic or military gov't. Just like the U.S. with Pukistan. We need to let the Myanmaries understand that India will support them no matter what. This way we can weed them away from having to depend on the Chinese.

But it seems there are some powers with in Indian top brass which opposes every Indian move to get closer to Military junta of Burma. These powers are always present irrespective of the ruling party. Whenever Indian leadership starts CBM with Burma either we suddenly grant Nehru Peace price to Aung San Suu Kyi or some of ur ministers start crying for her release. And these things happened only when Indo-Burm talks were on. Recently Natwar Sing did the same when India is in dire need of Burma's need to tackle CI in N-E states.

@MT Singha
I have not read your earlier post under this topic in which you mentioned that Burma scenario will not be taken care of as they will be having negligible effects. But what if under Chines influence Burma allows her land and other resources to be used by BD-Pak-Sino axis in conflict against India.

I mean Burma can be a trum card for India if tackled intelligently.

[Sunil]

Ramana,

Six chotoos not ... any way I am just giving a number. the point is the backpack design which as we all know has appeared elsewhere in the world.

Guys,

Leave Myanmar out. There is considerable difficulty in coming up scenarios for how the superdiverse North East interacts with the equally diverse (but in denial) Bangladesh.

If you guys think this not complicated enough try writing up pt 4 "the economics of the coup" and you will see exactly what I mean.

Or if you prefer try to speculate why Maulana Nazrul says "We need the Army to keep the civilians under control and to govern the place". Basicly the Army is an ethnic superset of the Islamists. Try to flesh that out and then you will see why I think this is quite a bit more complicated than simply sticking Myanmar in.

ADMINS NOTE:

Thread has been cleaned up. No more of these we want more posts. Contribute something meaningful and don't clutter the thread.

[Singha]

S2, here is a very important document whose link was posted
elsewhere on BR. the ORBAT part should be of particular interest to you.

http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/Research/OPs/ ... cover.html

[Singha]

Story: The Awakening
Post: #5 "The Conclave - fashioning of objectives"
(100% work of fiction)

Jan16 2008 , 9:00AM
Prime Minister's residence, New Delhi

Breakfast had been served at 8:00AM sharp. PM Arora
being a well travelled lover of good cuisine, the
kitchen staff had done an excellent job as usual. Warm
fresh baked bread, omelettes, boiled eggs, butter
cubes, uttapams, fresh full-fat milk, honey pancakes
and rich sweet tea flavoured with shreds of dry dates.

8:30AM found the guests still busily partaking of the
feast in the dining room, one by one they finally
took their last lingering bites and reluctantly
made their way to the conference room.

This was not expected to be a short or pleasant meeting.

The more corpulent among the guests had come well armed
with the pills and potions that kept their flabby and
overweight bodies functioning through these physical
challenges of sitting up for day long sessions.

At 8:55AM PM Arora entered and greeted everyone cordially.
Gathered around the long table were home minister Dighe,
defence minister Sen, external affairs minister Miglani,
finance minister Nagarajan,RAW chief Rao, national security
adviser Salgotra and holder of the nascent joint chiefs
post army four-star general Sastry. Most are talking in
low voices with their neighbours.

"Good morning, you all know why we are gathered here.
You have been sufficiently fed *light laughter*, now let
us get down to business" *side talk dies down*

"A few days ago the political structure and strategic
posture of BD went through a violent transformation. A
change that is very detrimental to indian interests.
While we were still estimating these developments,
events in the north east states have spun out of state
control. copies of the letter by Assam acting-CM have
already reached your desks. I need not add more to it.
I would request our RAW chief to give a brief report on
the region and within BD"

Rao starts speaking...."Using both human and technical
assets, the picture we have of foreign presence in BD is
as follows

2 Pakistan army reinforced brigades, minus their armour
is in theatre. The heavy armour and logistics vehicles
is as we speak underway by sea from Karachi or in process
of loading up. The first ships would arrive
within the next two weeks at Chittagong and other ports.
We expect the process to take three weeks. TES photos
indicate a mixture of Al-khalid and M113 Al Talha.
BD army is supplying the truck motor pool.

3 Pakistan airforce squadrons, two Mirage3 and one F16
composed of deputations of their most veteran pilots
is in theatre. A crotale SAM battery has been airlifted
into their airbase for protection. our technical means
report signs of imminent departure by another two
squadrons, again a Mirage3 and a F16 sqdn.

2 PLA reinforced brigades, minus the armour is in theatre.
They are located close to chittagong, not having deployed
yet to anywhere near the border. It appears they are
awaiting arrival of their armour and supplies by ship.
our sources in Singapore and Vietnam as also reports
from the INS Shalki stationed off vietnam indicate two
large convoys of cargo ships have sailed from bases in
eastern china, rendezvoused in the south china sea with
a PLAN escort force and is now preparing to enter the

straits of malacca from the east. So these would be
unloading in Chittagong late next week.

2 Su27 squadrons are in dhaka. We are seeing signs in
satellite imagery of 2 more sqdns on verge of deployment.
Fortunately the lack of quality airbases in BD seems to
be acting as a natural brake to the aeriel component.

Agartala IB reports say about 4000 islamist volunteers have arrived
at a place called Jhili near chittagong wherein they are
housed in a tent city. Dispersal is expected soon given that
most are hardcore small-unit terrorists rather than a field
army or paramil formation.

Till date there have been no airspace violations but our
radars report all weather familiarization flights continue
to gather momentum. ELINT a.c are active, atleast two Y-8
have been spotted by TES in dhaka.

As for the law and order situation in north eastern states,
guwahati , shillong and agartala remain under indefinite
curfew to stop incidents of arson and violence as protests
turned violent and Govt property was targeted. There is
reason to suspect the presence of extremist cadres within
these 'mobs' -- the burning and sacking of 50% of the
dispur capital complex by a well armed mob estimated at
30,000 people is a very unusual occurence. AT NO TIME in
our independent history has the state capitol been targeted
and damaged in so humiliating a fashion by its very

citizens. to prevent casualties, CM Dwarah withdrew all
ministers from the complex beforehand and had the BSF and
police not use force to disperse the crowd. The fires in
the complex destroyed decades worth of Govt records and
has put back the development plans of Assam by 20 years
if not more. Enraged mobs of assamese have also killed
around 35 BD immigrants in guwahati and burned 400+
homes. Religious rioting has spread throughout the state
now. In meghalaya too, pitched battles are being fought
between gangs of khasi youths and any 'outsiders' they
come across.

There have been 35 attacks by terrorists just yesterday
alone on civilians, govt facilities and the armed forces.

.......(speaks for 25 minutes more giving a laundry
list of details - all of them bad news).


Arora: "Thank you Rao Garu, we shall break for a short

recess and reconvene in 15 minutes".


********

Arora: "could we have you Ashok (miglani) tell us
about the international reaction to events and their
potential moves if we did something?"

Miglani: "its not an appealing picture. While the US
remained aloof first couple of days apart from their
State dept spokesman doing the cut-paste template thing
on democracy, we think they are getting ready to
recognize the new govt and anoint him as another Mushraff.
Parleys are in progress at the US embassy in
Dhaka and ambassador Joana Hart has made two trips already
to washington on special USAF planes for consultations
with higher ups. Our local embassy in Dhaka has been
shut down on orders from Gen Jaffar so we depend on RAW
feelers to get news. She has met Jaffar officially atleast
twice till date, unofficially certainly a few times more.
A retired marine general zucchini has been sent as
washingtons emissary to aid Ms Hart in negotiations.

As always they will buy into whoever is the biggest
thug in the bazaar and take their percentage. My idea is
they hope to wean away Jaffar from the Sino-Pak-Islamist
hydra or failing that atleast keep a close eye on him.

The europeans will fall in line with whatever the US
says so long as they dont have to do anything too hard
like getting out of bed. so will the koreans and the
japanese who have significant FDI in manufacturing there.

we can expect the usual advice of 'restraint' were we
even to consider hot pursuit raids against the rampant
NE extrmists at this stage. Thats is all I have today".

Arora: "Gen Sastry, is our posture in the NE enough to
deter any immediate adventurism by the three pronged
combine?"

Sastry: "after consultations with my staff and the service
chiefs over the last week, I would say we are ok with
what we have there except that those Su27s need to be
countered with something out of theatre.

for COIN operations we shall need another two divisions
on a urgent basis. I have taken the liberty to earmark
two reserve divisions in Bihar and UP for this task should
you gentlemen give your approval"


(meeting goes for another two hours, before breaking
for a light lunch. Minister Sen, sore from sitting too long

on a bad back and sleepy from recent overwork has his
driver run down and fetch home cooked mustard hilsa
from his own residence. his mood recovers somewhat after
partaking of that with fragrant small grain assam rice.
The rest hungrily devour the salad, rice, rumali roti,
lamb curry and curd the orderlies wheel into the
conference room. Aroraji was famous for his generous
hospitality and hard work demanded hard eating)

(After lunch)
Arora: "Now that we have heard everyone report the
details and give their opinion, let us move on to the what
can we do question. It is quite apparent to me that this
situation cannot be allowed to continue. The NE is in
flames and the people who set that fire are now sitting
behind the Sino-Pak military combine in BD. They have to
be stopped. but first let me summarize what I think
should be the goals before us. We had had informal discussions
on this last few days.

1. Get the Paks and Chinese out of BD.
2. restore a pro-india ruler in Dhaka
3. roll up the islamist and NE terrorist camps in BD
4. keep the stables clean via this pro-india regime.
5. stop international intervention in the conflict
until we have achieved our goals
6. prevent or minimize any economic sanctions or oil
embargo on india
7. restore law and order in the NE
8. obtain a resolution of massive support from parliament
the moment the action starts
9. keep control of the media psywar to our advantage
10.prevent a direct two or three front war on the
Pak and China borders.

I am afraid it also inevitably implies the use of force.
This I consider a good thing because it gives us the
leeway to try and thoroughly humiliate both the Paks and
Chinese in the process from a position of our choosing.
Here is a chance for us to directly decimate major fielded
formations of the enemy without the risk of a major war if
we play our cards right. If it works, we shall both win
the worlds admiration and support(everybody loves the
winning team), a mental edge (the israelis after 1967)
and produce a big internal convulsion in islamabad and
hopefully in beijing as opponents will get opportunity to
discredit the incumbents. Cleaning up the NE is
a economic dividend too.

We must hide our real intentions however under cloaks
of deception until the decisive moment arrives. To this
end, I have recruited certain friendly elements of the
opposition parties and media to put the following impression out in next few weeks

* that infighting and lack of decision is rampant
in the CCS. The you Ronen (Sen) *giggles* are leading a
pacifist faction in the CCS away from talk of any action
* some of my marxist friends will make loud statements
about anti-govt agitation if delhi so much as thinks
about disturbing the friendly new Govt of BD. There central
leaders are not trustworthy, I have recruited their two most
powerful state level leaders - realists to power not
out of touch ideologues.
* NDA will attack everything we say everyday. our friend
from Sindh was delighted to know the outlines of my
thoughts and has promised full co-operation.
* writers in the media will lambast any idea of armed
action and call for talks and restraint. peace morchas
will be organized in all major cities.
* writers will output a series of articles pointing out
the woeful and backward state of the indian armed
forces and rub in their "inability to even protect
their own camps"
* Govt inciters will encourage people like arundhoti roy
to write against us in the international media.

we must act divided, incompetent, timid, afraid of what
washington will say, what the EU capitals will say, fearful
of losing our economy, fearful of a three front war,
fearful of the mayhem the islamists have caused and sick
of the daily grind in the war against terror. Its vital
to lull our enemies into a warm and fuzzy sense of security.

I am afraid no immediate deployments of the two divisions
you asked for Gen Sastry. That would be a reactive move.
When and if they do make a move , it will be for the jaguar
er jugular *mutters to himself, got to stop reading Dawn too much* vein not as sentries awaiting the next attack.

Gen Sastry and Sen sir you have four weeks to prepare
a plan for goals 1, 3, 10. Ashok you will work on 2 & 4
with Rao garu. Manoj (dighe) you will work 7 and 9.
Nagarajan sir you need to look at 6 and prepare cost
models for economic impact based on various war
intensities and durations as we discussed yesterday.
I will handle 5 , 8 and political aspects of 10 with
Dayvik (salgotra).

There will be a meeting every week from now on for
the next one month. I expect status reports and cross-cutting issues to be discussed therein. Resources
are not a problem - you have my approval to drop out of
public sight to focus on this using any excuse you need.
Pull in the best people you need to get your jobs
done. Work three shifts, bend the rules, break the rules,
there ARE no rules - make it happen. Keep the teams small.

For your team members this should be marked as
merely a gaming exercise. I will personally prosecute anybody,
including you if there are leaks on what happens in this
conference room.

Remember gentlemen, one month only- no slippages. Do
I make myself clear? remember the oath, we are sworn to
defend our country and we cannot fail our Motherland in
this dismal hour. I took that as my life's defining mission the
day I signed on for this job. whenever you feel tired and cannot
put in that extra hour, remember the Oath! "

***

One by one, thinking dark thoughts, the men dispered from
the Conclave just as dusk was falling on the sedate tree
lined avenues of Lutyens delhi.

Their day had only began...

PM Arora after a brief rest left the compound to brief Madam on the days proceedings in person.


(Next: Part6 - "Combined Operational Plan - Vajra" )

[Singha]

Looks like admins removed RayC's email post. If someone has his
email pls send it to my robust_bear at yahoo id.

[prakash_ragav]

great work MT

remember our oath, we are sworn to
defend our country and we cannot fail our Motherland in
this dismal hour.

yeah! yeah!

[chola]

That was worth the wait, saar!

Story: The Awakening
Post: #5 "The Conclave - fashioning of objectives"
(100% work of fiction)

Jan16 2008 , 9:00AM
Prime Minister's residence, New Delhi


The more corpulent among the guests had come well armed
with the pills and potions that kept their flabby and
overweight bodies functioning through these physical
challenges of sitting up for day long sessions.

Wonderful touch, I could imagine them

1. Get the Paks and Chinese out of BD.
2. restore a pro-india ruler in Dhaka
3. roll up the islamist and NE terrorist camps in BD
4. keep the stables clean via this pro-india regime.
5. stop international intervention in the conflict
until we have achieved our goals
6. prevent or minimize any economic sanctions or oil
embargo on india
7. restore law and order in the NE
8. obtain a resolution of massive support from parliament
the moment the action starts
9. keep control of the media psywar to our advantage
10.prevent a direct two or three front war on the
Pak and China borders.

Paki and chini armor amd heavy equipment coming by sea. I smell a Tsushima or Trafalgar coming. A decisive battle at sea.

Although, in order for something of this magnitude, you are talking about two convoys, to happen and not have the TSP and PRC open up fronts, we can't use surface forces because that would be open warfare before any war is declared.

The world might not be on our side if it sees us striking first even though it is preemptive. Worse, it would probably be the excuse for the PLA and PA to open up the other two fronts. It would be a bad scenario fighting three fronts with foreign armies and a fourth front being the insurgency/civil disorder problem in Assam.

This is where the Kilos can come into their own

[RayC]

tara@cal.vsnl.net.in

[Sunil]

MTS,

I have read that Saikia thing before.

Please hold off on Vajra until I post Parallel II; Part 4.

[Sunil]

The Awakening: Parallel II
Part 1: The Bayat of Blood
Part 2: Laskhar Ababeel
Part 3: Ibadat

Part 4: Zarb-e-Mumin

The appointed day had come. In a large maidan used first by Sheikh Mujibur Rehman to give the call for an independent bangladesh, a million or so had gathered once again. This time on the podium stood Moti-ur-Rehman Nizami, the amir of the JEI, heir to Gholam Azom, leader unrivalled (or so he believed) of the Islamists of Bangladesh. Moti eyed the crowd, a sense of pride grew in his mind, what an achievement this was, such unity and sense of purpose. There had been consultations in the hours before the coup. Moti was unprepared but his friend from Pakistan called and suggested that things would be fine. That calmed Moti down considerably.

The endorsement of the military government was expected to send the right signals to the military. There had been some jubilation in the ranks of the Islamists with the coup, some of that has spilled into rioting and minor pogroms against minorities in Pabna and Atgoria. The situation had turned quite ugly in Chapainababganj after some shias were killed by a jubilant mob but that had been brought under control after the naib amir of the JEI in the region spoke immediately for peace. The military for its part had taken a benign view of events but there was no point in pushing the envelope, the time for that would come later, thought Moti. Despite the large numbers of people, security had been considerably reduced because the military was keen to engage the Islamists as partners in its new dispensation. The bulk of the security was being handled by the ICS cadre working with the Dhaka Police.

Moti's speech had just concluded, now Maulana Nazrul would speak next. Moti thoughts turned to Maulana Nazrul. The good Maulana had done well, yesterday's shura had gone of exceedingly smoothly. Even the somewhat unpredictable pirs had been brought into line. Moti returned to table and took his place next to General Haque, the DCOAS of the BDA, Gen. Jaffar Ahmad had been busy with some visiting dignitaries from China, so Gen. Haque was substituting for him. While Moti began to think about ways of rewarding Maulana Nazrul for his services, Maulana Nazrul stood in front of the microphone. There was immediately a brief moment of discomfort as the Maulana leaned a little too close to the mike and that set off the feedback screech. The sound engineers ran forward and fixed the problem and after a quick clearing of his throat, Maulana Nazrul began to speak in his calm and measured voice. The murmers in the crowd fell silent. It was eleven o'clock in the morning.

" Bismillah-ar-Rehmaan-ur-Raheem,

My fellow Muslims, I wish to begin my speech firstly by thanking the Almighty Allah for having blessed us with such good grace, if we are gathered here today, it is because of Allah Ta'ala ki rehmat and we must never ever forget his blessing and express our gratitude for even the smallest of his favors. This is the meaning of being a true muslim and we must aspire for such perfection in our piety.

As my brother Maulana Moti-ur-Rehman has said before me, the brave men of the Army have taken the bold step of removing corruption from the very heart of our government. This act of tremendous self-sacrifice on the part Sadr-e-Riyasat, Amir-al-Ala, Gen. Jaffar Ahmad is the hallmark of a true Muslim. I pray with all my strength that the Almighty shower his best accolades on Gen. Jaffar and guide him in leading his fellow Muslims. Only the grace of Allah my friends can protect us from the conspiracies of the Devil and the harm they cause us all. It is the duty of all Muslims to cooperate with a just ruler.

I wish to take this opportunity to speak a little bit more about evil. Every new path brings with it new challenges. Challenges that need to be faced and if these challenges are not faced, then evil triumphs. It is the sworn duty of every Muslim to battle the forces of evil, this is the spirit of the Jihad, and no Muslim can escape the Jihad and must play some part in it. The grace of Allah will give each Muslim inner strength to perform the duty of Jihad, but it the individual duty of each Muslim to seek out his place in the Jihad, to identify the fabric of evil and to strike at it. His fist shall bring with it the unstoppable force of Allah. So I ask you all to remain alert to the conspiracies and nefarious influences of evil and to lend all available assistance to those who seek to foil such conspiracy.

Evil comes in many forms, it is able to change shape and size. There are those amongst you who feel compelled to listen to music. This is a form of evil, one must guard against it. There is no greater music than the sound of the Azaan. A muslim must bear the sound of the Azaan in the mind, heart and soul. Prayer is our ultimate salvation, and we must all practice it. Only through prayer will we cleanse our souls of the depredations of sin.

I want to tell you that this morning I recieved a message of congratulations from Maulana Iskandar of the Jamia Binuri in Karachi. Similar messages of congratulations have also arrived from the Shaykhs and Guardians of the Holy Harams. The rectors of several major Islamic institutions have also sent us their best wishes and prayers. The world of Islam is with us. We need nothing to fear.

(Glancing carefully at his watch. The Maulana continued to quote a few suras from the Koran and speak about their meanings.. finally at 11:45 Dhaka standard time, the Maulana's pager rang and the Maulana shifted gears rather abruptly in his speech. In the crowd too, a hundred or so men began to filter through to the front of the crowd. The Laskhar Ababeel was now making its presence felt, all men were dressed in shalwar kameez and carried assault rifles and ammo packs. They carefully inserted themselves between the stage and the crowd. The tone of the Maulana's voice suddenly became grave.)

.. There are those in this world who feel that it is a curse to be a Muslim. That the Ummah cannot defend itself and that the Muslim is powerless to protect his faith. I tell you today that this is not so. The force of Allah's Might is with us, within us and around us. No force on earth can stop us and we are without doubt the inheritors of this earth. If there are still those amongst you that doubt my words, I ask you to bring to your mind only the word Allah, and to think of the greatness of His Prophet and watch what it can do.. come on now.. say it along with me..

Allah ho Akbar... (the elements of the Laskhar join in... and soon the whole crowd is chanting it... after a dozen times, the Maulana guestured with his hands, and the shouting subsided...)

See my friends what your intonation has done.. Allah's grace brings for you a living display of the Zarb-e-Momin..."

And then with his right hand he pointed to the distant horizon.. and with his left hand he pressed the button on a small black box in his pocket...... the crowd watched in awe.

CD9884 had taken off from Tinsukia without any delays. That was understandable because unlike other Alliance Air flights, CD9884 was not actually a passenger flight. Though bearing the colors and the callsign of an aircraft of the loss making Alliance Air subsidiary of the Govt. owned Indian Airlines Corp., CD9884 was ... mildly put "leased by another agency". Flying the plane was a Gp. Capt (r) Feroz. Capt. Feroz was a former officer of the IAF. He had taken premature retirement and joined a little known airline called Air Khiva in Tadjikistan. The private joke among Capt. Feroz's friends was that he had lost his mind - flying in an out of some miserable place called Ayni but Capt. Feroz seemed unconcerned. After a year he had left Air Khiva to join Alliance Air. Now aboard CD9884, Capt. Feroz had lined up his aircraft along Airway 9760 which brought Dhaka to bear on his left. Conveniently enough the sideward looking camera array which was positioned in the belly of the aircraft was busy snapping high resolution pictures of the Dhaka bowl. A small mast made up to look like a CAS unit was uploading the information to a small control center in another little known town called Charbatia. Capt. Feroz and his team jovially referred to this transmission as CSTV (Cabinet Secretariat Television) News and in that spirit Capt. Feroz was
pretending to be a TV weatherman and talking to his "Air Traffic Controller" in Charbatia ... "Hallo Vaz, This Feroz reporting form Dhaka, as you can see it is a sunny day here and we can barely see any cloud cover for miles, it is an ideal day for a picnic..... but the forcast for later in the day isn't good, garaj ke saath cheetey pad sakte hain... "

At 1157 local time, CD9884's sideward camera suddenly picked up a burst of light. Reacting instinctively to the change, Capt. Feroz pulled the Airbus into a steep northward climb and yelled to his XO.. "Kya tha woh..?!! Behan****" The XO looked out of the cabin and screamed, "OH BOSS, CLIMB CLIMB CLIMB...!!!!" Capt. Feroz yanked on the stick, and before long a shockwave hit his airplane rattling the entire aircraft. Leveling off, Capt. Feroz leaned over the XO... and swore softly... reaching for the encrypted link he yelled into it " Vaz!!!!... Vaz...!!! do you copy... did you see that?!!..", on the other end... Vaz replied, "Affirmative, ATC advises extreme caution.. do a second pass". And Capt. Feroz swearing continuously began to pull CD9884 towards the south east. In a sharp turn CD9884 began to circle around the mushroom cloud.. At charbatia, a Mig-25 pilot sitting in a hardened bunker, heard the words SCRAMBLE SCRAMBLE SCRAMBLE on his PA system and ran towards the aircraft. Just as he was climbing aboard he spotted a technician performing the last checks on a special pod designed to take air samples. The pilot stared grimly and climbed aboard...

At the rally ground a cry of joy went up and chants of Allah-ho-Akbar rent the air. The ICS cadre began to shout out "Moti-ur-Rehmaan Zindabad", "Long live Gen. Jaffar..", "Maulana Nazrul ki Joi".. Though confused out of their wits, Gen. Haque and Maulana Moti overcame their feeling of surprise and stood up to give a standing ovation. The Laskhar Ababeel then began to emerge in far greater numbers from the crowd. Gen. Haque wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed but even he could tell that the balance of power had just shifted. Maulana Nazrul simply smiled and began to pray to the Almighty and soon the entire bunch of people on the dias joined him and the crowd followed...

By the time the Mig-25 broke the sound barrier 50 miles out from Charbatia, the dust in the small deserted estuary just south of Dhaka was beginning to settle. It would be years before anyone would fish here again but that was no concern. In the distance, Nasir watched... the point had been made. Thinking of those that had perished along with the first hikmat, Nasir knelt and folded his hands across his chest and began to recite the first rakat,

"Subhana kallah humma wabi hamdika ma tabara kasmuka wata 'aala jad-duka wala ilaha ghayruk."

(Glory be to you, O Allah, and all praises are due unto you, and blessed is your name and high is your majesty and none other is worthy of worship but you.)

[Singha]

well S2, Vajra is atleast a week away so feel free to run riot
in the meantime. you are doing your usual excellent job with the islamist types - particularly liked this line "Gen. Haque wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed but even he could tell that the balance of power had just shifted."

Chola, who said we will officially strike first ? pls read up a certain
SS op prior to the invasion of Poland for example. Anyway 'they'
have already struck first in the sense of prolonged terrorism. The
world will believe whatever we say if we win. else all the usual
'rules' will be quoted. rules are for the losing side, never for the winning party which writes new rules or rewrites the old rules. and that is the rule rather than the exception

RayC I will forward the next installment to you , have noted your
email in my diary.

[Sunil]

The Awakening

The men standing around PM Arora were silent. The Scientific Advisor Dr. Ahluwalia was standing next to the PM. The CD9884 camera data was displayed on a large flat screen TV in front of them. Dr. Ahluwalia took a deep breath and spoke first

"Sir, our calculations show that the yeild is under 5 Kilotons. There is substantial amounts of residual plutonium lying around the estuary. It should all drain into the Meghna. Most of the radioactive dust has blown over a large area. It will be inactive in two days time. The unreacted bits of plutonium have mostly oxidized and dissolved into the rapid flow of the Meghna. Any environmental effects will be minimal, I don't see any potential for catastrophic damage. The localized ecological effects will be bad, that area will have to offlimits for a year or so, but nothing calamitous. As you can see from the footage, the device was deployed by a small boat containing a few men. We do not have enough data to identify the source of the Plutonium with a high degree of confidence."

Secy. Rao, the head of RAW, spoke next.

"Mr. Prime Minister Sir, there were reports in the 90s that the Bin Laden Group had secured RA115/6 backpack nukes. Initial investigations by our people had showed that the charges on these were duds. The Bin Laden Group subsequently invested in Afghanistan and built two zero power reactor facilities in Kandahar and Khowst. The reactor team was led by four Turkmen scientists. The reactor designs were similar to Osirak. It is possible that the Pakistani nuclear scientists through this Ummah-Tameer-Nau organization were able to provide critical scientific consultancy and eventually the Bin Laden Group was able to produce enough plutonium to replace the charges. It is also possible that Pakistanis scientists at Wah Nobel Corp. may have transferred technology relating to explosive lenses to the Osama Bin Laden group. This conclusion is supported by the analysis of the explosive found on board the American Airlines flight that crashed in October 2001, and the subsequent arrest of Richard Reid.
It is unclear to us what the source of the electronics for the device could be or how precisely it could have gotten to Bangladesh. We are still investigating the matter."

Sri. Dayvik Salgotra, the NSA blurted out his reaction.

"This is a difficult situation, are the Bangladeshis victims of the world's first nuclear terrorist attack or are they a recessed nuclear power? who is the Bangladeshi government? the Army HQ or the Islamists? That estuary could very easily have been on the Hoogly. How do we read the intentions of the owners of the devices? Who are the owners of these devices? - the entire mechanism of deterrence just went out the window. Without a way of gauging the posture of the adversary, there is no way to come up with a way of adequately deterring him."

Sri. Dighe, MHA spoke after.

"There is no way to keep this out of the press. The Islamists will not pretend that it was a secretive mining operation aimed at creating rocks for a large dam or some such drivel."

Sri. Miglani spoke almost immediately,

"Is it fair to say that this is no longer simply our problem?"

He was interupted by Min. Sen of the Defence Ministry,

"But it is closest to us... we can't afford to pretend it didn't happen"

Gen. Sastry was running through the options in his head and he finally said..

"Sir, they seem to be relying on very primitive deployment means and there is no real PALS type thing on a jerry-rigged nuke. The reliability of their nuclear delivery mechanisms is questionable. So in they will be more vulnerable to use-or-lose type pressures. On the other hand, there is no way to impose a rational-actor framework on a situation where a suicidal attack delivers an atomic munition. The situation is far more unstable than meets the eye... "

And the conversation began to travel in circles around the crowd in that pattern, the ministers made a few summarizing remarks, and the advisors spoke about the details, the sense of concern in the voices slowly grew with each iteration.

The Prime Minister thought back to a fateful day in 1979, when he was a Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Finance. As the man responsible for handling the near infinite Secret Services Fund in the Min.Fin, he had been called into a meeting of with then Secy R&AW Nair. After the meeting was over, Secy. Nair told him that there was a strong possibility that the Pakistani Army had acquired and tested some sort of nuclear device and that this would have a major impact on the way things were in Pakistan. The uncertainity inherent in this situation was quite apparent to the Joint Secretary, and hence he had refrained from saying anything then. Now that option was looking very attractive again...

The Prime Minister suddenly interrupted the free flowing discussion and asked to have some time alone to consider the matter. One by one the men trooped out of the room.

He then picked up the phone and called an internal PMO number, the phone rang and the PM spoke, " Hello Usman, please come up to my office immediately."

After that he dialed another number from memory, and phone rang in a small town in Himachal Pradesh and an woman picked up the phone. The Prime Minister spoke, " Hello Kaka hain kya? mai pradeep bol raha hoon". The woman replied with an obvious sense of glee "haan beta hain nah... how are you Pradeep?, I am so glad you called, I will get Kaka immediately." Soon Kaka was on the phone, and Prime Minister Arora simply said, "Kaka... zara aa key mil sakte ho kya? - and please bring Samir and the boys along" and the Kaka replied, "Sure... right away." The PM then talked to the assistant secretary in the SPG incharge of transportation and made the travel arrangements.

Usman arrived almost immediately after the PM put the phone down, and the PM began to dictate a letter to him in Urdu. The two men talked about the exact choice of words and then settled on a final version. Usman then left for Saharanpur to deliver the letter and a verbal message.

[Rudradev]

From the desk of Imtiaz K. Chandiwala, I.A.S.
Principal Secretary to the Minister of Defense
South Block, New Delhi 110-011
Jan 17th 2004

Mantriji,

Having reviewed your memo of last week, I have submitted my thoughts per the issues you raised.

I am of the opinion when giants fight, its often not directly
but in a proxy battlefield with manageably low forces and escalative potential which need not climb the ladder into a full blown war. politically also its easier to sell.


So am against idea of opening a western front on TSP/PLA. the problem right now is not TSP, but TSP-China-BD in BD.

My views on opening a front with Pakistan in the West are centred around my observations of the psychology of Pakistan's leadership.

As you correctly point out, when giants fight it is often in a proxy battlefield. I believe the need of the hour is to disabuse Pakistan of their grand delusion that a battle between Pakistan and India is such a battle of giants. They have entertained the idea for far too long that they can wage proxy war against India with impunity, "Hunuz Islamabad Door Asth" to paraphrase Shakyh Nizamuddin Auliya. Having convinced themselves that all of India's restraint has in fact been indicative of India's weakness when confronted with the terrorism they have inflicted upon us over the last decade, I submit that the Pakistani GHQ honestly believe that a combination of their nuclear deterrent and a lack of Indian political will have conferred upon them some sort of invulnerability on the home front.

Perhaps we can take a leaf from the book of LB Shastri in '65, when Ayub was counting on a regionally contained and limited war in Kashmir? As you have communicated in previous memos, the Pakistanis have a tendency to panic when faced with unexpected adversity in the thick of the fight, and thwarting their long-nurtured comfort level at exactly the right time might be just the thing to induce such panic.

I do not advocate a full-scale invasion of Pakistan by any means. What I propose is that, when military engagement of low-to-middle intensity on the NE front has progressed for about 15- 20 days and the Pakistanis have committed even more resources to that front, our Pivot Corps undertake a brief but severely punishing thrust into one of the sectors along the Punjab IB, along the lines of the Operation Durvasa exercise wargamed in July 2004. We will thus remain in command of the ladder of escalation and still put the fear of God into the Pakistanis, damaging major assets in their heartland when so far they've been expecting a "safe" proxy war. One can imagine the effect on Pakistani Generals who have been arguing about how much to commit in Bangladesh, assuring each other that we would never mount a counterstrike to their belly. Retaining salami slices of the Punjabi heartland might also provide a bargaining incentive to the Pakistanis, to cut their losses and flee the NE front. The psychological thrust will be to impose on Pakistan the impression that, where they expected to be forcing a two-front war upon us, they are in fact headed for a repeat of 1971 (or worse) if they don't back down immediately. This goes to objective #1 as outlined by the Prime Minister's meeting of Jan 16.

An Op Durvasa style manoeuvre will also stop short of actual invasion. Such an action might have provoked US/international involvement under other circumstances, but given that the Americans are well aware of Pakistani/ISI adventurism behind the Bangladesh crisis, I believe it is a risk we should be bold enough to take in this instance.

>Its more important to annihilate this new enclave WITH the Pa and PLa entourage , to humiliate and demoralize the main countries involved. attacking a PLA bridgade in Tibet means war, attacking the PLA foreign legion in BD doesnt mean a india-china general war.

I am in complete agreement with your excellency regarding China, and the need to avoid losing control of the escalation ladder to the extent of risking a general war.

My assessment is that the coalition arrayed against us in Bangladesh is a house of cards; it will crumble utterly if we strike at the supports in the right manner.

We can quite safely expect that the Chinese will in all likelihood make no move until their armour and heavy equipment arrives by sea via the PLAN-escorted convoys that DG-RAW Rao has informed us about. The Chinese calculations in this regard, we can be sure, have been extremely thorough and finessed. Many of these calculations, they have surely made on the basis of certain assumptions about Pakistan's political will to follow through with their part of the bargain. Whether or not Musharraf has an exit strategy, we can be sure that the Chinese have several very well thought-out ones.

If we can tilt the balance of things suddenly and unexpectedly enough, seizing the initiative and taking control of the escalation ladder ourselves, I submit that it will likely encourage the Chinese to use one of them rather than risk all-out war with India. It might also give rise to international pressure of a favourable kind-- on the Chinese, to curb their adventurism rather than continue the brinkmanship to the verge of certain nuclear holocaust. After all, the movements of PLAN-escorted convoys towards the Straits of Malacca can hardly have escaped American and other international observation.

In all probability, if we demonstrate a ready and formidable naval presence blocking the PLAN-convoys' route, while at the same time panicking the Pakistanis, the Chinese might decide to reconsider their involvement. Today, Bangladesh is the puppet, the theatre of proxy war being waged against India by China and Pakistan. If we can reduce Pakistan to simply another theatre of proxy war between us and China, it will drastically alter the equation in China's eyes. The implication that we would directly challenge a nuclear-armed Pakistan in defence of our security interests might give them pause in a scheme that could very well have been fed by overconfident Pakistani assurances in its hatching. They would have to wonder at that point, how much further we would be willing to take the brinkmanship.

As for annihilating the new enclave-- I submit that extreme punitive action against Bangladesh proper could be detrimental in the following ways:
i) We would be allowing the enemy to define the theatre and scope of war, a theatre for which they have prepared for many months and we have not. They have dug in and are now challenging us with the terrorist strikes. Would it be wise to do as they wish and walk into the fray on their terms?
ii) I believe any action against Bangladesh proper should be calibrated and targeted precisely at the foreign legions there, to whatever extent possible. Right now Bangladesh is in turmoil. Many there have not had time to come to terms with the new dispensation and what it is being used for by the Chinese and Pakistanis. I submit that we could still have friends in Bangladesh, friends who would be useful when all this is over and whom we could alienate if we applied devastating and unrestrained force against what is after all a proxy. As your excellency knows, any targeting of the infrastructure in so thickly populated a country as Bangladesh is bound to result in collateral damage, which could then be used to propagandize its entire population against us.
iii) Humiliating the principal nations involved, Pakistan and China, could be achieved in other ways. In Pakistan's case, by showing them that they are not some superpower who can sit back in the safety of their homes while conducting a proxy war against us. In China's case, by demonstrating that we are as fully capable of playing the brinkmanship and proxy-war game as they.

>p.s. if Muskrat loses two brigades, two sqdns of precious fighters
and the entire Bayat-for-blood brigade his life wont be worth
much. the next guy in line will be free to make his move. US support will likely be withdrawn from Mush if/when he indulges in this kind of adventure.

That is indeed likely. And we should endeavour to make sure that Musharraf loses as much as possible, in terms of assets as well as face.

However, in such a case the US might very well decide to embrace and support Musharraf's successor when faced with the lack of any better option. After all, they have already sought to engage and confer respectability on General Jaffar Ahmed. Threats to India's territorial integrity will be the last thing on their minds when planning their actions.

By taking action against Pakistan on the Western front, we widen the scope of this war. This brings China to the forefront of this conflict, rather than allowing them to play the role of backroom manipulator lending a few assets to the conduct of what is essentially another Indo-Pak war. The eyes of the entire world are upon the developments here, and managing these types of perceptions will be critical in terms of ensuring a positive fallout. India's credibility as an Asian power...much abused when Japan received the sixth permanent UNSC seat in 2005... will hinge on the actions we take here and now for a long time to come.

By making it very clear that Pakistan is nothing but a Chinese proxy (rather than a "prime mover") in this conflict, we could seriously shake the complacence with which the US has been wont to deal with Pakistan so far-- replacing one general with another as their stooge and assuming that their interests will be taken care of. The Americans would be made to realize that their sponsorship of opportunistic, hubris-ridden Pakistani Generals in no way ensures American security interests, and in fact provides plenty of opportunity for Chinese influence to make inroads into South Asia. They might finally awaken to the need for a much more drastic solution to their Pakistan problem.

Lastly, one might point to the Sino-Soviet border face-off of 1969. It was when the world, particularly the United States, saw the Chinese stand up to extreme pressure from the mighty USSR that international perception of China changed dramatically, leading to the Kissinger rapproachment of 1972 and the beginning of the path to great power status for China. Fighting with Pakistani and Chinese forces in Bangladesh gives the impression that India isn't even capable of pre-empting Chinese influence in its own neighbourhood, is in fact forced to take on China's proxies on China's terms. If we are able to sweep both proxies out of the way and confront China directly-- staring them down in the face of grave provocation and winning the game of brinkmanship-- every nation on earth would then have to revise its assumptions and calculations with regard to India.

Admins note: Corrections made to text.

[Sunil]

The Awakening:

As the evening progressed, the bitter chill of the Delhi winter set it. A dense fog layered the helipad close to the PMO. The Cheetah pilot was having a hard time seeing the landing zone, but he was a Siachen veteran himself, and this was a cakewalk. As the helicopter landed, Kaka, Samir and the boys leaped out of the helo. The SPG security personnel instinctively reached for their weapons when they saw the visitors and the ITBP man at the HMG nest nearly let off a volley. Despite the production of papers and the assurance of the assistant secretary, the SPG men would simply not take their fingers off the triggers of their MP5Ks. It took a lot of convincing but finally after a direct order from the DIG in charge, the security officers lowered their weapons. The steely gaze however didn't come off...

For Samir all this was quite amusing and all too common. At six feet six, he was imposing indeed. Then there were his grey green eyes and light skin, very common to his tribe in the Konkan region of Maharashtra. It is said that his people came to the region many millenia ago, and by virtue of their hard work and education became the dominant caste in the region. What prompted his ancestors to leave the steppes of Central Asia and settle in a tiny little village on a hillock called Chiplun in the eastern Sahyadri ghats was a total mystery. Normally his dashing Konkanast Brahmin or Kobra looks would have set girls' hearts aflutter, but Samir was something of an oddity there too. He was a natural at learning languages. One thing had led to another as a child, and by the age of 27, Samir was learning strange tongues like Domaki, Burushaksi, and Hindko. This ofcourse was in addition to his exceeding familiarity with Urdu, Kashmiri and Pashtu. All the boys had similar stories. To make matters worse, Kaka insisted that everyone keep sizable beards, offer namaz five times a day, drink only kahva, and wear a kufi under the pakhuls and pretty soon even the colleagues at the house who saw some pretty weird stuff were a trifle zapped. The boys were good and Kaka had spent years training them.

So now the motley crew attired in chunnies and light kameezs were walked down the corridors of the PMO, attracting strange looks from the people inside. At every corner they were repeatedly frisked. and the PSOs all seemed very uncomfortable with their presence. Finally Kaka's caravan landed in the PM's office and it was only after a request from the PM himself that his PSO left them alone in there. The PM felt a sense of genuine happiness. It had been years since Kaka came thus to meet him between the campaigning and the cabinet formation there had hardly been any time. A chance meeting occured at a recent awards ceremony in Kashmir House,and that is where Kaka had introduced the PM to Samir and soon the PM went to Kaka's house to see the rest of the boys. The PM was really impressed.

After exchanging a few pleasantries, the PM finally spoke his mind,

" Kaka, there is a problem and I need your help..."

Kaka nodded, and the PM began to describe the events of the day. After a hour and a half, he called Usman and asked Kaka and the boys to take up an office next to his own. Kaka and the men began to put together an operational plan.

[Sunil]

NSCS-NSAB 19000929/DCA/CS/TS/C

*****TOP SECRET*****
******COSMIC*******

To:
Sri. M. K. K. Karunakaran
Addl. Secy. (NSCS)
Dept. of Cabinet Affairs
Cabinet Sectt.

Dear Sir,

Apropos your query regarding PLA activity patterns.

1) PRC are desperate for a show of strength but not really desperate for a fight. Too much to lose if the fight does not go their way. Their entire endeavor will comprise jumping to a point in some local escalation ladder that does not create any real escaltory potential or backlash. So long as we can't jump above them - they "win". So "forward deploying" their RRFs into Bangladesh without adequate support is typical of their "show of strength" idea. They will have to taken some steps in Tibet to ensure that we can't simply wipe out the formations in an airstrike within hours of their landing there. The entire preparatory phase for their ground operations will be very risk prone because they will simply not have enough aircover and unless they can ensure something that will tie down our airforce they will lose this.

2) The chinese can claim escalatory dominance in the following areas of the "ladder":

a) Their missile formations in tibet are more easily deployable. So they can claim that they have the ability to hit Indian cities long before India can claim to respond effectively.

b) They have local tactical advantages in the NE where our forces are thinly stretched. They can carry out recon-in-force in places like this and claim a major military success.

c) If they can stack up accurate arty fire and short range missles they can interdict lines of communication and create problems at a brigade level. Our posture in the region will be contingent on our ability to maintain critical transport infrastructure. So a few trucker strikes through their trade union buddies and some snafus in WB and the PRC will have its day.

d) They can leverage their stake in the Myanmar govt. for airbases. This puts the security of FORTAN/ANC at peril.

3) You may recall that possible ideas for these types of actions had been discussed in the Reverse Analysis Conference held in 2003 (RAC2003). Their ability to play defensive in Tibet is growing. So they won't be an easy hit. Plus they will have enough weapons stashed all over the place in Tibet to sit through a bad time and the Tibetans will not be able to help out.

4) I think the PRC will have to be prepared for the following in the event that they send out an RRF to aid the BDA.

a) Case Red (Good): The landing goes off smoothly as it cuts beneath the GoI's Boyd loop. In this case they will forward deploy the brigades and saturate the air with CAPs and hope that the GoI is deterred by the number of airplanes in the area. There will be a number of joint maneuvers and familiarization exercises that will be carried out with the BDA and the Pakistanis all of which will be aimed at getting the local logistics worked out.

b) Case Green (Bad): The GoI notices and attempts to cut the formations down but the formations are able to avoid decimation. This could be possible for example if the formations hide in populated areas so as to put pressure on the IAF's bombers. Any losses in this will not be advertized in China as fighting losses, they will be advertized as losses incurred by PLA forces in attempting to rescue Bangladeshis from the consequences of IAF bombing raids. This will mitigate the domestic political consequences inside PRC. It will make room for PRC retaliation against FORTAN/ANC.

c) Case Blue (Ugly): The GoI notices and moves against the RRF with decisive force. Surgical interdictions occur at sea the RRF is stuck inside Bangladesh without equipment or support. This will force the PRC's hand in Tibet and lead to a shooting war in the NE. The shooting war will follow the patterns discussed out in RAC2003. I summarize the same below

c1) Territorial incursion followed by severe arty and missile in a weak spot in the LAC. Aim will be to cause battalion level attrition.
c2) Airstrikes against major infrastructural targets with aim of weakening an entire brigades area of responsibility.
c3) Airstrikes at C3I nodes aimed at weakening functioning of a Corps size formation and isolating a Divisional HQ.

5) If one reaches the higher rungs of the ladder, such as for example if India threatens the BDA with a nuclear strike, the PLA will activate its SSM units in Tibet and use those to threaten India.

Yours Sincerely
Maj. Gen. (r) J. P. Naresh
Dy. Convenor (NSAB)
NSCS

***** Security Deletion *****

[SaiK]

interesting reads in this thread.. i hope the stories lead into some kind of pre-emptive war unlike anything seen in the world yet .

[Guest]

MTS,

In your scenario, the PM has given one month to come up with a solution. However, the PM was told that in two weeks, the ships will dock with the armor. Won't that make things more difficult. Shouldn't the PM set a two-week target?

Still, congratulations on your skills of details and your plot skills.

Harsh

[Singha]

PM's original thoughts were to let them build up to full strength
so that more materials could be demolished at the right time.

that may change given the way S2 has been going lately....

[Guest]

S2,

The Deputy Convenor of the NSCS would not write to a Deputy Secretary. More likely, he would write to a Joint Secretary or to the NSA directly.

Harsh

[Sunil]

Harsh,

My mistake, I wrote Dy. Secy instead of Addl. Secy. I have made the change now thanks for bringing it to my attention. I chose the letter format to indicate that there is a matter of debate of sorts here. I intend to post Sri. Karunakaran's reply to the letter above pretty soon.

MTS,

I would like to thank YIP, and C Kapoor for valuable discussions in this regards some two years ago. Ultimately I am sort of pushing for people to think of conflicts not as one dimensional "we do this and the enemy runs like hell" things, but rather as more complicated ladders. The ladder of escalation vis-a-vis PRC wasn't very clear to me. At some point about two odd years ago, Me, YIP and C Kapoor talked through some part of this. The bulk of the ladder is still unclear to me. This happened after DANK sent the NE scenario out.