Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[ldev]

Anyone remember the pressure on GOI at the end of 1999? From Dilli I mean.

Are you referring to IC814?

Sorry, was referring to Op Parakram in 2001.

[UlanBatori]

How soon ppl forget. Not to contradict Mullah Shivullah BUT... I am afraid that December 1999 defines the National Determination To Never Bend One's Knees B4 Insolent Might etc., more than 1971 or 1965 or 62. The 2001 by the IT lobby just aggravated and reinforced that. If I were Gen. Wee Dong this would be the lesson that I would use in strategic planning. VERY dangerous.

This is why I said that the ****PM**** could do wonders by going on the radio and asking ppl to prepare for war. In one shot it would start a virtual boycott of Chinese goods, along with serious problems for commies in elections. This is the effective counter to the Chinese Amb going around talking to assorted Opposition oiseules. When the chaiwallh bisses in his chai and puts the sugar in his Mercedes/ diesel tank, that will convey the message much more powerfully than any GOI demarche etc.

Plus Wee Dong would have to wonder whether the loundeyes are really crazy enough to go all the way. No more Shanghai, where the Gen. owns the waterfront. No more smog in Beijing, just a glow. And what will the Tibetan splittists do to him and his family when they realize that the PLA are really not there at those smoking camps?

[Jarita]

The only thing that would calm many of our nerves is if Modi gives a national address stating that India is ready.

No no saar.

Modi giving a national address will imply that India is rattled. Modi is doing the reverse wishing Xi on his birthday as if they are chaddi buddies.

THIS

[Rudradev]

I think during Parakram it was the US that activated our IT-Vity Monarchs and Corporate Godfathers to pressure the ABV Govt to stand down. Our buildup directly threatened the US agenda in Afghanistan, and the Pakis were using it as an excuse for pulling their troops to the eastern border and effectively colluding with the (non-uniformed) terrorists... something Washington hadn't got wise to yet.

I don't think China has the kind of clout over our titans of business/industry to motivate them in this manner. Forking over some chump change to the paid media traitors or the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation is something Beijing (or even Pakistan) can do. But China doesn't import anywhere near the value of goods or services from India that the US does, and therefore would not have the same kind of grasp on the testimonials of Ambani, Infosys and whatnot.

Today, would the US use its clout with corporate India to compel a back-down in the face of Beijing's threats? I don't think so. It may actually be in their interests to see India and China go to war.

On the question of what happens after Indian cities, infrastructure, telecom, power supply, Ambani's house etc. get hit by a Chinese missile strike. I cannot for the life of me imagine these guys having the nerve to ask that the war stop for their sake, when all around them their fellow citizens are also suffering and brimming with patriotic fervour. What's more, it just wouldn't make business sense.

To take just one example, Mukesh Ambani is canny and knows that every eventuality brings its own brand of opportunity, even war. Major damage to infrastructure means major rebuilding of infrastructure when it's all over. He will want the lion's share of those projects when everything is said and done. And in the meantime he will want to buff his brand image by walking around the bombed-out remains of Pedder Road looking like a grave, brave, Gujju Winston Churchill (with a hidden earpiece affording direct satlink to IAF radar personnel to make sure nothing is REALLY about to come rocketing over the horizon while he is outdoors, of course.) Similarly Murthy and company will sing Vande Mataram and declare that they're volunteering to lead the great Janata Ka Cyber War against the noodle-eaters. Biocon will send free stock of pharma products to the front, and so on.

[Avtar Singh]

25th july seems to be the date this br thread has descended into hysteria....must presage the end of this whole affair

chinese know they can never win... it is the geography (and distance) that counts and they know it..
of course they rely on India caving in and not standing fast at the himalayas, so they can salami slice what they want

the whole PLA camped at the border and 10,000s of troops streaming down himalayan valleys would be the greatest gift the chinese could ever bequeath India, they will never do it.... turkey shoot and “fish in a barrel” come to mind

I would say, very similar to 1941 when the greatest war machine ever assembled resulted in very extended supply lines, harsh winter, and eventually the stalingrad pocket, the surrender of Paulus and the sixth army
tibetan pocket full of 100,000s PLA, anyone?..

once they have descended down the valleys there would be no retreat.... coming down is one thing climbing back up is something else.
So it would be a one way trip they would have to fight and hold or die/surrender with long supply lines, a very long way from home

India will sit there and do nothing to these supply lines??? No need for navy.. just air force and army, dont even need to bother with han core
It would be the end of PLA, end of CPC, end of chinese occupied Tibet, end of OBOR, end of CPEC
The chinese have always relied on India backing down, hopefully times are changing.

[UlanBatori]

How many Indians are even aware that Chinese are waving their Wee Dongs? Golden opportunity to do something about the trade deficit, and govt media are not taking the opportunity. How tough is it, hain, to start a teetar campaign calling for a Free Tibet boycott of Chinese goods? Start hitting where it counts.

And oh! as Laurel said to Hardy, NOW They're Using MY Brain!

Organiser also spoke about the Sangh's move to launch a nation-wide mass awareness drive against China-made products between August 1 and 15.

Dang! Aug. 1 is too far away, why not start now? Also boycott the Commies' agints in India, the Marxists starting with The HUNDI. This is a super opportunity. For instance, Pakistan economy is collapsing mainly because I quit buying Rooh Afza back in 1990. Now even Paki fig preserve has been replaced by Tunisian.

[Rudradev]

Again. If China attacks Indian cities/heartland/infrastructure, or J&K, or indeed any place at all outside the Doklam plateau... it will be a Pearl Harbor moment. The largest MIC of the 21st century will arise as a direct consequence of that moment.

EVERY leader of consequence in Corporate India will see what this means... a whole spectrum of opportunities to expand their businesses beyond their wildest dreams prior to the war. The original Pearl Harbor was how the Grummans and Lockheeds and Douglases, the GEs and Bells and GMCs became the earth spanning monsters of the post 1950 era.

No Indian businessperson is fool enough to misunderstand the full significance of what it will mean, should the awful eventuality of an attack on the Indian hinterland occur.

And the more I think of it... THIS (more than any temporary loss of PLA H&D to Indian forces in the remote Himalayas) is the reason PRC will not force a war on us. A loss of military H&D can be fixed by paying off int'l media and think-tanks to publish loads of bullshit fabricated history calling it a "stalemate" or some such equal-equal nonsense, and only we BRFites (apart from the people actually involved) will remember what really happened, 10 years from now.

The tiger awakening fully, enraged and hungry... that's a whole other level of trouble for the CPC. They can say goodbye to a peacefully integrated Tibet and Xinjiang forever after that.

[Kanson]

During Parakram, all those beggars from IT-Vity type, media & others did what they did becoz, that NDA Gov allowed itself wider room for such lobbying.

Present gov is not like that. But you can expect Congress to do that instead. Ofcourse you can count commies, didi and the likes. That why it is always mentioned even on offical channels as 2.5 front war.

See the events, Chinese envoy met pappu. First, they denied such meeting. BJP asked if there is nothing to hide, why deny in the firsthand.

It was established that indian companies used China route for money laundering. SuSwamy & others have hinted abt Gandh's investment in Macau & other areas of chinese where Indian agencies cannot access.

Such theory is plausible considering more attention other tax havens were receiving, they could have diversified. Post such overhaul, it is said london is one area where such activities are allowed and all crooks go. This is also an area where Indian angencies dont have success. We are hearing in news many times Gandhi's trip to london and ASEAN.

Given such consideration one can see the possibilities of testimonials of Gandhi/Congress in the hands of Chinese. Much like SU/Russia had during IG regime. Expectedly post Chinese envoy meeting media under Congress influence tried to scare people on how we are so low on war reserves. Others picked up.

And then, from media like Republic,TNow news started to pour out & messaging was tailored to show, how Congress is doing anti-national activities by releasing tapes of Samjhauta Express episode. Further Bofors can was opened. Now you sample the Congress behaviour, it will be in contrast to their previous behaviour. Didi was receiving more affection from Dili anyway away from media galore.

While we cannot rule out completely such activities, present Gov and situation is different from that of NDA Vajpayee Gov era.

[UlanBatori]

rdji and others: I don't know how smart desi bijnejppl are, but I do know that v r missing a great opportunity to biss on the dlagon if v don't do our share of propagating a Dump The Dragon movement (someone pls come up with a catchy Hindi and Tamil and Kannada name for it?). Look at the numbers:

India’s exports to China decreased by 12.29 % year-on-year to $ 11.748 billion, while India’s imports from China saw a year-on-year growth of 2.01 % to $ 59.428 billion.

OK, if a 10% boycott can be achieved, that's $6B/yr. Enough to cut two Aircraft Carriers and a nuclear sub from the Dragon's plans. $5 per desi. How about developing a catchy slogan to cut purchase of Chinese goods by Rs.1000 per person? Replace your intended purchase of a Made in China item with a Made Anywhere Else Except Pakistan item. Diss that purse. Toss those shoes. Biss on that figurine. Buy a phone that is **NOT** Made in China (that's Rs. 15000 right there!) Ask ppl to post a moving tally as Comments under the Petition: let the dlagon see the $6B add up. For far too long, Chinese arrogance, crookedness and downright greed have gone unpunished. No longer.

I am disqualifying Chinese phones for my upcoming Cellphone Purchase RFQ, to replace Supreme HQ's ancient Nokia. This is a grander and more detailed effort than the MRCA, Bofors and MiG-21 replacement combined. Sadly, last year I bought a Lenovo thinking it was a nice American company running a sweatshop in say, Thailand. Turns out it was Chinese. Well, I'll be more careful.

How about it? If 10,000 BRFees can achieve a boycott of $100 each, that's $1M. A good example. Beats **rting here about how great our fighting qualities are. Once we have about 50 ppl posting, we can start a thread just for that.

[schinnas]

My prediction. Limited armed confrontation will happen that may not escalate into all out war, but China would be left licking its wounds and hiding its embarrassment due to the drubbing its going to get.

I really hope that some illegally occupied territory by chinese is retrieved during this conflict.

[Cosmo_R]

Gentlemen. A thought worthy of your consideration. If China should unleash or threaten to unleash missiles with conventional warheads, why would India want to take them at their word that these are indeed conventional ones and not nukes? Do they carry some sort of a priori certification?

The Indian response has to be "you fire conventional missiles at our infrastructure , we will detect them and we will assume they are nukes. You have thus put us in a "use them or lose them" nuclear calculus. We will fire all our nukes at you because we are indifferent as a state as to whether we are destroyed conventionally or by nuclear weapons.

So we will take you down with us if you destroy us. You have more to lose than we do. Your economy is bigger, your people are richer and your dreams of world conquest are more probable. In a knife fight with us, you will be sufficiently crippled to hand your remains to Russia and the US.

Is that what you want ?

[schinnas]

Also now that Chinese foreign minister issued a statement and allegations, its time MEA spokesperson responds to him so we can return the favor.

It would be beneath Sudhma ji to respond to that low cultured fellow.

[UlanBatori]

Gee!

[ramana]

Kanson, Good summary. One more factor. ABV's Eminence grise was Brajesh Mishra who was very loyal to Congress.
He is supposed to have bailed out Rahul Gandhi from Boston airport with suitcase full of cash.
He was awarded Padma Vibhushan award by UPA govt. not by NDA.
he also has an Italian connection.

All these papers on Bofors etc. were there even then but not used for whatever reasons.
And hopefully NaMo has learned the right lessons.

Cosmo_R, That is what I have been saying to ldev.
A nuke power is not trusted to use conventional missiles on another nuke power.

[UlanBatori]

IMO if the dlagon sees no other way out, they will use tactical nukes on the IA positions, then deny everything. Big powers will know, but not a damn thing to be done about it.

[Mihaylo]

IMO if the dlagon sees no other way out, they will use tactical nukes on the IA positions, then deny everything. Big powers will know, but not a damn thing to be done about it.

Wow...what are we smoking here.

-M

[UlanBatori]

Guys, read the account of the 1967 action, posted somewhere on these threads. The Chinese Commissar got mad that he was knocked down and his glasses broken, so next day they machinegunned the Indian soldiers who were setting up a rope to prevent such incidents. 70 (SEVENTY!!!!) Indian soldiers were killed in just that first wave - a sad display of planning and leadership, IMO, to put those people in an exposed killing-field of fire with no covering machineguns. Those who think the chinese are playing, and not absolutely ruthless and devoid of human rationality, do indeed need to check what they are smoking. Yeah, I saw the claim that 400 were killed on the Chinese side but I also saw that the Indian bodies were dragged over to the Chinese side and India had to go ask to get them back, so the Chinese had control of the ground to do that dragging. Meanwhile, Indian forces had to allow the wounded to die freezing in the cold and rain because we could not go drag them back, so the claim about who "won" etc must be viewed in light of those facts.

Ppl trying to outdo each other bragging about how we are going to thrash the Chinese, "bring them down by the scruff of the neck" (remember that one?) etc need to pls calm down and get real. Have some empathy for the soldier on the frontlines and try to help their job. Boycott Chinese goods.

[UlanBatori]

BTW, quoting from the NoKo thread:

According to the Wall Street Journal, Chinese measures include the establishment of a new border defence brigade and 24-hour video surveillance of the board backed by drones.
Bunkers to protect against nuclear and chemical strikes have also been installed.
China said its forces “maintain a normal state of combat readiness and training” on the border, but experts suggest troops have been mobilised in preparation nearby.
A spokesman said: “Military means shouldn’t be an option to solve the Korean Peninsula issue.”
However, China has been strengthening its defences along the border since Pyongyang’s first nuclear test in 2006. This includes building a fence along parts of the border and stepping up patrols.
It is reportedly preparing for a crisis in the country, which could result in millions fleeing to China. This includes the possibility of economic collapse or a US missile strike.

IOW this is the happy situation that they have deliberately created on the Korea side, bissing on the other SuperPower. Anyone can see that Kim's IRBMs, SLBMs and ICBMs, "developed" within months of each other, are all Chinese imports/gifts. So are NoKo nukes. Why does anyone think they will hesitate to kill Indians in large numbers? IMO most Indian soldiers taken prisoner in 1962 were never returned alive.

[Karthik S]

Guys, read the account of the 1967 action, posted somewhere on these threads. The Chinese Commissar got mad that he was knocked down and his glasses broken, so next day they machinegunned the Indian soldiers who were setting up a rope to prevent such incidents. 70 (SEVENTY!!!!) Indian soldiers were killed in just that first wave - a sad display of planning and leadership, IMO, to put those people in an exposed killing-field of fire with no covering machineguns. Those who think the chinese are playing, and not absolutely ruthless and devoid of human rationality, do indeed need to check what they are smoking. Yeah, I saw the claim that 400 were killed on the Chinese side but I also saw that the Indian bodies were dragged over to the Chinese side and India had to go ask to get them back, so the Chinese had control of the ground to do that dragging. Meanwhile, Indian forces had to allow the wounded to die freezing in the cold and rain because we could not go drag them back, so the claim about who "won" etc must be viewed in light of those facts.

Ppl trying to outdo each other bragging about how we are going to thrash the Chinese, "bring them down by the scruff of the neck" (remember that one?) etc need to pls calm down and get real. Have some empathy for the soldier on the frontlines and try to help their job. Boycott Chinese goods.

In first phase of Kargil war, Captain Kalia and his team were captured and mutilated. We know it was tactical victory on part of the pakis to capture the heights inside our territory. So you mean we shouldn't claim victory when viewed in light of these facts?
70 is a fact, but 400 a claim?

What your conclusion of boycotting cheeni goods has to do with rest of your post?

Little OT, one of few grouses I have with NM govt is that I thought govt would discourage their goods and encourage ours. May be govt will act now with RBI reducing the interest rates helping SME sector. Apart from hi-tech equipment that we don't have a manufacturing base here, all the other things we import can be discouraged by taxing them heavily and simultaneously encouraging Indian products. Indian products have higher reliability and endurance than cheap cheeni ones. Imagine the kind of employment that can be generated if even $30 billion of the $60 billion that we import from china is manufactured in India.

[suryag]

UB ji is right, think about the soldiers standing on that ridge line with nothing more than a gun. Imagine, Chinese make the first call following Doval's meeting to open fire, all these brave souls will be in harm's way(now one can say that they have been trained for this, blah blah) but still even one casualty is a casualty. Again, not intending to say we should cow down but let us try to avoid being over enthusiastic about war. Namo is practicing what he said during campaign "aankh jhuka kar nahi aankh mila kar baat karenge" but still i am worried for the brave men out there. On a side note as long as the PLA army is standing few feet from us in human chain i believe they wont open fire(unless they are willing to sacrifice a few of their own)

[UlanBatori]

What your conclusion of boycotting cheeni goods has to do with rest of your post?

What your post has to do with any conclusion onlee?
"Claiming victory" sounds great! Worth a ticker tape parade. Losing brave men by the dozens or hundreds to die of torture, or bleeding in the rain in sight of their helpless compatriots, all due to lack of preparation, is the underlying story. In 1962 and 67 we were blindsided by Chinese treachery and utter murderous ruthlessness. Read that story of the unprovoked machinegunning to understand Chinese mentality. Hardly the Confucian Calm etc. it's just bloody petty viciousness of reptile-eating reptiles. Apologies to reptiles.

I am saying that boycotting cheeni goods is something we can help to do. All else is gas.
Indians need to be informed about China's treatment of the Falun Gong (organ trade etc too). Treatment of Tibetan freedom fighters. Brave Islamists of Xinjiang where they are not even allowed to cover their heads, ankles or forearms, nor given passports. Treatment of Mongolia. Treatment of Bhutan. Treatment of South Korea.Treatmet of Vietnam. Treatment of Phillippines. Taiwan.

[UlanBatori]

BTW, you can't tax Chinese imports. The WTC will fine India even more heavily. But greedy Indians can tone down their greed a bit and think of those soldiers standing there guarding them. And boycott Chinese goods, period. Purchases on contract, of heavy machinery etc is hard to cancel, but purchases of trinkets and luxury goods should be cut down.

[schinnas]

Guys, read the account of the 1967 action, posted somewhere on these threads. The Chinese Commissar got mad that he was knocked down and his glasses broken, so next day they machinegunned the Indian soldiers who were setting up a rope to prevent such incidents. 70 (SEVENTY!!!!) Indian soldiers were killed in just that first wave - a sad display of planning and leadership, IMO, to put those people in an exposed killing-field of fire with no covering machineguns. Those who think the chinese are playing, and not absolutely ruthless and devoid of human rationality, do indeed need to check what they are smoking. Yeah, I saw the claim that 400 were killed on the Chinese side but I also saw that the Indian bodies were dragged over to the Chinese side and India had to go ask to get them back, so the Chinese had control of the ground to do that dragging. Meanwhile, Indian forces had to allow the wounded to die freezing in the cold and rain because we could not go drag them back, so the claim about who "won" etc must be viewed in light of those facts.

Ppl trying to outdo each other bragging about how we are going to thrash the Chinese, "bring them down by the scruff of the neck" (remember that one?) etc need to pls calm down and get real. Have some empathy for the soldier on the frontlines and try to help their job. Boycott Chinese goods.

I am sure you also know that in 1967, facts on the ground changed suddenly when our soldiers were authorized to use artillery causing much heavier casualties to Chinese. Tells you how unempowered Indian army local units were. Chinese learnt their lessons that time that it may be very easy to machine gun unarmed troops...But handling the after effects is entirely different ball game.

To put it bluntly, Chinese army (PLA) was bitch slapped by Indian army in 1967 and history is going to repeat now in full glare of social media and world media where they cannot save their H & D. The drumming they are going to get will be recorded by some soldiers or a yak herder in that area and posted on YouTube for the whole world to laugh at them for years to come.

All these (under prepared and un empowered local forces) have changed for better. I have seen first hand how equipped and trained our Black Cats in Sikkim are and how fortified they are (at least what ever I could see as a civilian going to Nathu La). Even roads are marked clearly as to which sections are visible from Chinese observation and which are not so one can be prepared to cross those sections with precautions. Very thorough and very professional.

Any Chinese misadventure now will result in very very heavy penalty for them and new India is equally ruthless. Anyone having doubts should now check with Paki posted on LoC.

Absolutely no need to dhoti shiver. Our army is very ready and capable to give a big bloody nose to Chxeem in both Sikkim and by extension Dolam (which is the Indian name of the Dokam La area). Our soldiers are willing and eager to prove their mantle and teach a lesson to cheen. Let's respect them by acknowledging their professionalism and courage.

Added later:
Any war is madness and needs to be avoided but we shouldn't shy away from confrontation when situation demands it. Kshatriya spirit of our army demands it.

[Pratyush]

U B, In times of war ligislation is silent.

[UlanBatori]

You know, the geography and the history there cries out for a straightening of borders. Chinese are illegally in that whole wedge-shaped area that really belongs to Sikkim or Bhutan. So just obstructing the road is really not enough. But I don't see how to kick them out of the whole area without first destabilizing Tibet.

On the 67 deal (yes, easy to type from armchair far away in time and space!) given the artillery advantage, the tragedy is that all those Chinese positions were not captured permanently. Chinese won't learn until with each misadventure they get pushed further and further back.

[Jarita]

BTW, you can't tax Chinese imports. The WTC will fine India even more heavily. But greedy Indians can tone down their greed a bit and think of those soldiers standing there guarding them. And boycott Chinese goods, period. Purchases on contract, of heavy machinery etc is hard to cancel, but purchases of trinkets and luxury goods should be cut down.

True that. It is not just about the dollar amount. Actions such as this have a reverberating effect on national psyche and at an intangible level provide an armor/kavach.
Some will mock but the worthies know what I am talking about. This would be a powerful action if sustained for a period of time, even by a percent of the population.

[UlanBatori]

I think soldiers on the line would love to hear of such a boycott.

[Pulikeshi]

You splittist sdre "Hindu Nationalist" guys are not understanding the glavity of the situation

In China the Supreme Ledler's birthday is great state secret - Namo has revealed this openly on Weibo
Does this appear to be an act from a leader afraid of the Middle fckdom?

[UlanBatori]

Is bilthday the day the egg was laid, or the day the egg hatched and the reptile came out?

[Pulikeshi]

Only the mother would know...
If anyone knows Chinese and can care to translate want to see the follow ups on Weibo and hey Namo's tweet has 704 likes

[fanne]

https://swarajyamag.com/defence/can-ind ... y-conflict

Can India ward off a limited Chinese attack along the Line of Actual Control or the international boundary in Sikkim?
The answer lies in analysing force concentration and capabilities that the two countries bring to bear on the common border.


On 18 July, the South China Morning Post reported that People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had moved “tens of thousands of tonnes of military vehicles and equipment into Tibet”, quoting the PLA mouthpiece. Many such moves in the past one week, seen in the light of aggressive statements made by China’s foreign ministry and the blatant warmongering rhetoric from the country’s state-owned media, has triggered a debate in India. Although reports suggest that the PLA has not mobilised troops towards the border and that the recent live-fire exercise in Tibet was a routine affair – putting off the chances of a full-blown military conflict, prospects of a peaceful walk-back from the brink appear to be shrinking with every passing day.
Though the Doklam crisis will most likely not lead to war, a localised conflict is indeed possible if the PLA decides to up the ante – something China recently indicated as possible.
Under these circumstances, the question that arises is if India can ward off a limited Chinese attack along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) or the international boundary in Sikkim. The answer lies in analysing force concentration and capabilities that the two countries bring to bear on the common border.
There are some enduring misconceptions about the military balance along the Sino-Indian border. The most common of these is that China’s localised military strength along the border far outweighs India’s. However, studying the deployment of Indian troops and air assets along the border, and particularly in Sikkim – the site of the current stand-off, one arrives at an entirely different picture.
Ground Forces

Eastern Sector
The Indian Army has nine of its 12 mountain divisions deployed in the eastern sector. Each of these divisions usually consists of 15,500 combat troops and 8,000 support elements. Of these, three divisions – seventeenth, twenty-seventh and twentieth – are deployed near the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction, the site of the ongoing stand-off. These divisions are based in Gangtok (Sikkim), Binnaguri (West Bengal) and Kalimpong (West Bengal) respectively, guarding India’s vulnerable chicken’s neck, the Siliguri Corridor, which connects seven northeastern states with the rest of India.
Three mountain divisions – fifth, twenty-first and seventy-first – are deployed in Bomdila (Arunachal Pradesh), Rangiya (Assam) and Missamari (Assam). Bomdila is located just 170km from Tawang, an important centre of Tibetan Buddhism claimed by China as a part of the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR). Additionally, three mountain divisions of the Indian Army – second, fifty-sixth and fifty-seventh – are deployed in Dibrugarh (Assam), Zakhama (Nagaland) and Leimakhong (Manipur) respectively.


Sino-Indian border deployments (units located via IHS Jane’s database, August 2016)

Against this, China has two mountain motorised infantry brigades and a mechanised infantry brigade close to the Indian border. While the mountain infantry brigades are based in Nyingchi region of Tibet facing Arunachal Pradesh, the only mechanised infantry brigade deployed close to the LAC is stationed in Lhasa, Tibet’s capital.
Western Sector
In the western sector, India has an infantry division and a mountain division. While the former is stationed in Leh, the latter is based in Dras. India also has an armoured brigade (with over 100 T-72 tanks) to cover the flat approaches from Tibet towards India’s crucial defences at Chushul.
The Indian side of the LAC in Ladakh sector is much more conducive for mechanised warfare than the Chinese side. In the Sino-Indian war of 1962, six vintage AMX-13 tanks of the Indian Army, which were airlifted to Chushul, inflicted severe losses and delay on the advancing Chinese Army.
In comparison, China has deployed a mechanised infantry division based in Hotan in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, north of Askai Chin – a part of Jammu and Kashmir that China currently occupies and claims as its own.


Sino-Indian border deployments (units located via IHS Jane’s database, August 2016)

Therefore, in terms of the number of troops deployed close to the boundary in both eastern and western sectors, India possesses a clear advantage.
However, a simple bean-counting approach to the Sino-Indian military balance has limits. China’s newly carved out the western theatre command, which is tasked all along the Sino-Indian border, is known to have three Group Armies (corps-level military formations). Although stationed away from the border, China’s superior infrastructure allows it to quickly move troops, such as its Rapid Reaction Forces (RRF) that it has raised in the last two decades, to the conflict zone. China has also built a number of oxygen-rich, hyperbaric chambers in order to quickly acclimatise the forces it will bring from other parts of the country to the war front.
By some accounts, China can use RRF groups based in its western theatre against India within three to five days of having taken a decision to do so. This will erode the advantage that India has in terms of the number of troops deployed close to the border.
While India has made some progress in terms of infrastructure development in certain areas such as Arunachal Pradesh, most of India’s road and rail construction projects have fallen victim to considerable delays.
Air Force
As many as 31 Indian airfields – nine in the western and 22 in the eastern sector – are located close to the LAC. These include air bases in Leh, Jalpaiguri (closest Indian air base to the Chumbi Valley), Chabua (Assam) and Tezpur (Assam). Bases in Chabua and Tezpur are particularly important because of their proximity to the LAC and the presence of the front-line Sukhoi-30MKI fighters. Indian airbases in the northern plains, including those in West Bengal, can be used against China.
In addition, India has multiple advance landing grounds (ALG), such as the one in Daulat Beg Oldi (Ladakh), on which it has landed its heavy-lift aircraft. In the past few years, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has also operationalised multiple ALGs in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh, most recently in Ziro and Along. These ALGs augment IAF’s ability to operate from forward areas.


Location of air bases along the Sino-Indian border.

In comparison, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has nine major airfields in its western theatre command, which it can use to launch conventional air operations against India. These include bases in Hoping, Bangda, Shiquanhe, Bayixincun (facing Arunachal Pradesh) and Kongka. China also has airfields in Lhasa, Shannan and XIgaze, which it can make operational in short time. One of its bases in Tibet's Nyingchi prefecture is just 30km away from Arunachal Pradesh. It also has a score of tactical airstrips and helipads spread across the region.
However, most of PLAAF’s air bases in Tibet are located at an altitude of 4,500 metres. This puts the PLAAF in a competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis IAF when deploying fighter jets on the Tibetan plateau because the load-carrying capability of the jets degrades significantly when they take off from bases at high altitudes. Due to reduced payload, the PLAAF has to cut down on the amount of ammunition and quantity of fuel its fighter jets can carry, significantly affecting its combat capabilities. The IAF, on the other hand, can operate with ease from its many airfields located in the plains in both the western and eastern theatres without compromising on its payload capabilities.
Lack of support infrastructure in these bases is also a concern for the PLAAF. Most of these bases lack hardened shelters to protect aircraft on the ground, leaving them vulnerable to attacks. Rudimentary support infrastructure would make it difficult for the PLAAF to carry out large-scale air operations in a sustained manner.


PLAAF airfields in Tibet lacking support infrastructure (ETH Zürich)

In the Chengdu military region facing Arunachal and Lanzhou military region facing Jammu and Kashmir, which have now been largely merged to form the new western command, the PLAAF is know to have four fighter divisions, one transport division and one bomber division. All these divisions are currently based outside Tibet. Due to the lack of support infrastructure on the Tibetan plateau, the PLAAF cannot bring all of its air capabilities to the region. This significantly erodes the quantitative advantage that the PLAAF enjoys over the IAF. Moreover, the relatively long lines of communication for Chinese forces, strung across Tibet, would be vulnerable to interdiction by the IAF.
In comparison, most Indian air bases in both eastern and western sectors have sufficient support infrastructure, including reinforced aircraft hangars.


An aerial view of the Leh airfield showing aircraft shelters

Therefore, India possesses an edge in air power along the LAC. However, the advantages that India has are eroding rapidly, largely due to the decreasing size of India’s fighter fleet and the deployment of China’s integrated air defence network in Tibet. By 2025, China will likely have more airfields in the wider Tibetan region, significantly increasing its ability to use air power against India.
In the broader sense, China has a numerical advantage over India in almost every area. But, along the border, India enjoys both operational and numerical superiority. This is clear when one looks at the character of force deployment and capabilities that the two countries bring to bear along the common border. So, can India embarrass China in a limited military conflict along the border? Quite likely.
Former national security adviser Shivashankar Menon, in his book Choices, argues along similar lines. Beijing, Menon writes, backed down in the 2013 incursion at the Depsang valley in Kashmir’s Ladakh region “because of India’s improved capabilities, which left the Chinese in no doubt that India could embarrass them”.
India’s diplomatic efforts, he states, “have focused on convincing China that any misadventure would result in embarrassment and pain”.

[Singha]

large scale cyberattacks on indian sites and infra can be expected . infact I am surprised not happened yet.

[SSridhar]

I don't know why we are even discussing a missile attack.

Between two nuclear powers there cannot be a missile attack. We replaced the Prithvi-I tactical missiles for the same reason, to avoid any misunderstanding. There cannot be ambiguity when nuclear powers are involved in wars because of the escalation ladder and the terrible consequences. This is especially true when both nations have the ability to detect a missile launch. Even missiles with TNWs cannot be fired. So, perish the thought of missile attacks.

Therefore, China cannot bring to bear upon India its vast non-conventional superiority over us. In terms of conventional weapons and tactics, we can either match the Chinese or out-match them at several places along the LAC. Unlike 1962, our position today is not based on 'brave words' alone. In fact, we have spoken very little, none at all, this time. Behind this silence is the determination and the scheme to counter the Chinese completely. It is China, OTOH, that is into bluster and 'brave words'.

That's why I say that there will be no war, even if it disappoints a few.

[Pulikeshi]

Ok, no offense to anyone dreaming up military +s and -s on each side - I humbly submit you are missing the forest for the trees:

Military action (war or even a limited one) is politics by other means - India is not foolish to instigate what happened here, well what exactly has happened here?

India has physically prevented the new Suplepower from using OBOR/CHIPAK BS to steal a tiny countries territory.
If China attacks India - goodbye "peaceful rise of China," India has options to open Tibet and other wounds, become USA munna, etc. etc.
If China does not attack India - The dragon that whimpered
Predicted outcome - winter gives both sides out... miscalculate and China's loss is bigger than India's

The "Devil" has struck - expect secondary responses via cat's paw, etc. but that is not new!

[Deans]

Dean sir keeping two front war in mind I count 14 Div, 2 of which maybe suspect, 9 Corp that looks like tsp specific formation. Math right? So we have 24 against tsp?

9th Corps was part of the Pakistan specific 16th Corps. However, 9th Corps Area of responsibility (AOR) now includes Himachal and it has mountain and not infantry divisions for that purpose. If we are to fight a 2.5 front war, the reduced 16th corps is still quite capable of defending against a conventional Pak attack (until our strike corps arrives) and handling counter-insurgency.
After deducting all the divisions I have mentioned, that can be used against China, we still have numerical superiority against TSP in the West.

As a previous poster mentioned, our locally raised infantry (Arunachal, Garhwal & Ladakh scouts) and Special forces, particularly those of Tibetan
origin, are a huge force multiplier against China.

[fanne]

Thx

[Marten]

SFF alone is probably 10,000 strong.

[Deans]

Uttarakhand is the home of Chief of Army Bipin Rawat and Kumaon Regiment, doubt Cheeni will initiate anything there!. They are tough fighters there.

Both the Garhwal and Kumaon regiments took casualties in 1962. I'm sure they would be happy to fight the next round and see how the PLA fares in a fair fight.

[BSR Murthy]

GOI will not and must not back down. Indians will not run away and hide. They will support their government unconditionally. The commies, the fifth columnists and other assorted treasonists better watch out. If there is real war, we can probably fix some of the internal issues that plague the country, hopefully for good. We must exorcise the demons of 1962, self doubt and defeatism. This is Xi's Katrina moment.
Jai Hind!

[Deans]

For those who keep harping on China's superior GDP etc - China's GDP is 20 times that of Taiwan (Population is 60 times more).
In aircraft, tanks, soldiers, artillery, China has 5 times the numbers of Taiwan.
The PLAN has 70 submarines vs. 4 of Taiwan.
It is unsure if the US will come to Taiwan's aid in case of a conflict - the US does not recognize Taiwan, let alone have a defense treaty with it.

Yet China cannot even reclaim islands just off their coast, belonging to Taiwan. They have never attempted to enforce a naval blockage against
their `renegade province'.

Even against the Philippines in the SCS, China is resorting to elaborate salami slicing, with bluster, threats, cartographic aggression etc as they are
now doing in Doklam. Why not send in their marines, backed up by their Blue water navy, against a almost non existent Philippines navy ?