Project 75I - It Begins

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Philip
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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Philip » 30 Oct 2019 04:54

Our " customisation" brings with it the two added factors of extra cost- for the bells and whistles wanted and secondly considerable time delay as these would be "first editions". We've lost the common sense approach of yesteryear where we first acquired vanilla models then upgraded them. This would be fine if we were on track regularly replacing old tubs, but we are in a critical state where 13 of our 15 conventional subs are 30+ years old undergoing second refits! None of them including the " new" Scorpenes are AIP too, despite Pak, Malaysia, SoKo and Japan-not to mention the dragon in the ocean China, have been operating AIP subs for almost 2 decades.

Our N-sub programme for 6 desi SSNs will take at least a decade to develop and build the first ones,. SSBN boats are easier and cheaper to build. Look at Russian examples. Perhaps acquiring another 2+ modernised Akula SSGNs giving us a total of 4, would enhance our blue- water undersea capability. If we really want to augment our conventional sub capability, then acquiring at speed readily available AIP designs in a preliminary batch is the right way.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Vips » 31 Oct 2019 22:41

After Saab, news is that the Germans have wet their salwars on the terms and conditions of the P75i contract and have withdrawn from bidding. Unless South Korea makes a good and compelling bid this contract seems ready made for the French to win. Question is if lack of meaningful competition will make them over confident and try to hoodwink us?
Last edited by Vips on 31 Oct 2019 23:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby nachiket » 31 Oct 2019 22:53

More likely that it will get whittled down to a single-vendor contest which will then get cancelled (after 2 years of internal chai-biskoot in the MoD). Better that the Navy asks for withdrawal of the tender now and changes the requirements so that existing designs can make it through. Asking for unobtainium will get us nothing.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Vips » 31 Oct 2019 23:20

It is not the technology or design that is making the vendors nervous. It is only 49% ownership in the joint venture with 100% liability for any slippages that is the root cause.I think we need to negotiate with the French for 3 additional scorpenes (with installation of our indigenous AIP) as a stop gap measure to account for the additional chai biskoot sessions that will follow.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Philip » 01 Nov 2019 01:50

Vips, are you sure the Germans have retreated? If so a great pity. I thought that Frau Merkel was to make a strong pitch for her U-boats during her visit.I am quite sceptical of the French winning the contest.Three factors.Scorpene leaks, promise to Oz to never give India equivalent sub-tech and the high cost of their subs.A further factor is that the Russians will never allow any of their advanced sub-launched missiles like Kalibir and B' Mos to be fitted onto any competition. The SoKo boats have significant German components with the basic design heavily borrowing from follow-on U-&boats

We should as was planned two decades ago have two lines of conventional subs , one western and one Ru. U-boats could replace the Scorpenes, perhaps a few more to end the series with 8 of 9 and a new U-boat lind to replace our 4 U-209/1500s. The Ru line a custom- designed boat to meet our unique needs based upon either the Amur which is now being built in series for the RuN or future Kalina class. The DRDO AIP system should mature within a couple of years and feature on both boats.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby nachiket » 01 Nov 2019 02:02

Vips wrote:It is not the technology or design that is making the vendors nervous. It is only 49% ownership in the joint venture with 100% liability for any slippages that is the root cause.I think we need to negotiate with the French for 3 additional scorpenes (with installation of our indigenous AIP) as a stop gap measure to account for the additional chai biskoot sessions that will follow.

No company worth its salt would agree to something like that without massively overcharging for whatever they promise to deliver. In this case the only ones who would not have a problem signing on the dotted line would be the Russians since contractual obligations don't mean anything to them anyway as we saw during the Gorshkov saga.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby astal » 01 Nov 2019 02:43

nachiket wrote:
Vips wrote:It is not the technology or design that is making the vendors nervous. It is only 49% ownership in the joint venture with 100% liability for any slippages that is the root cause.I think we need to negotiate with the French for 3 additional scorpenes (with installation of our indigenous AIP) as a stop gap measure to account for the additional chai biskoot sessions that will follow.

No company worth its salt would agree to something like that without massively overcharging for whatever they promise to deliver. In this case the only ones who would not have a problem signing on the dotted line would be the Russians since contractual obligations don't mean anything to them anyway as we saw during the Gorshkov saga.


It looks like the whole intent of P75 I is to speed up indigenous diesel sub development.The Germans had earlier provided both India and South Korea technology for the Type 209's. They may not be averse to getting their hands on some cash rather than having their customers the So Koreans have it. If the Germans are ready to play ball and provide India what is mentioned in the request, surely the French will also try to win the contract.

I hope it is a three way contest with the contract going to the best offer. If not, I believe India can build her own Diesel Subs, perhaps with some hand holding from Russia. It may take 10 years extra and we may need to buy a small number of interim Kilos or Scorpene's.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby John » 01 Nov 2019 09:02

Philip wrote:Vips, are you sure the Germans have retreated? If so a great pity. I thought that Frau Merkel was to make a strong pitch for her U-boats during her visit.I am quite sceptical of the French winning the contest.Three factors.Scorpene leaks, promise to Oz to never give India equivalent sub-tech and the high cost of their subs.A further factor is that the Russians will never allow any of their advanced sub-launched missiles like Kalibir and B' Mos to be fitted onto any competition. The SoKo boats have significant German components with the basic design heavily borrowing from follow-on U-&boats

We should as was planned two decades ago have two lines of conventional subs , one western and one Ru. U-boats could replace the Scorpenes, perhaps a few more to end the series with 8 of 9 and a new U-boat lind to replace our 4 U-209/1500s. The Ru line a custom- designed boat to meet our unique needs based upon either the Amur which is now being built in series for the RuN or future Kalina class. The DRDO AIP system should mature within a couple of years and feature on both boats.


For 100th time Amur is not being built it is lada that is being built, Amur is export derivative based on original lada which had far too many issues and current abomination that is being built has some fixes but still stuck in limbo. As a result there is no Amur and Russia has no money to develop Kalina nor are they gonna find anyone dumb enough to fund it.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Kashi » 01 Nov 2019 11:48

John wrote:Russia has no money to develop Kalina nor are they gonna find anyone dumb enough to fund it.


Philip sa'b would like that very much.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Pratyush » 01 Nov 2019 13:16

The Germans had showcased the U 416 a few years ago. It had 12 cell vls and AIP.

Displacement was in the region of 4800 tons.

That design is quite relevant for the IN.

Don't believe that the they would exit the program without a fight.

Sweeds could as they didn't have the design. But the Germans have the design.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby kit » 01 Nov 2019 17:49

nachiket wrote:
Vips wrote:It is not the technology or design that is making the vendors nervous. It is only 49% ownership in the joint venture with 100% liability for any slippages that is the root cause.I think we need to negotiate with the French for 3 additional scorpenes (with installation of our indigenous AIP) as a stop gap measure to account for the additional chai biskoot sessions that will follow.

No company worth its salt would agree to something like that without massively overcharging for whatever they promise to deliver. In this case the only ones who would not have a problem signing on the dotted line would be the Russians since contractual obligations don't mean anything to them anyway as we saw during the Gorshkov saga.


Not so., how did South Korea get the tech to build their Submarines AND sell them in the first place? It came from HDW. Now if the Koreans can do that why is that India cant? . The MOD is not stupid nor the IN. The Indian defence contracts are not an easy pick any more.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby ritesh » 01 Nov 2019 20:01

Vips wrote:It is not the technology or design that is making the vendors nervous. It is only 49% ownership in the joint venture with 100% liability for any slippages that is the root cause.I think we need to negotiate with the French for 3 additional scorpenes (with installation of our indigenous AIP) as a stop gap measure to account for the additional chai biskoot sessions that will follow.

Reads same as in during rafale negotiations between Dassault and HAL.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby nachiket » 01 Nov 2019 22:15

kit wrote:Not so., how did South Korea get the tech to build their Submarines AND sell them in the first place? It came from HDW. Now if the Koreans can do that why is that India cant? . The MOD is not stupid nor the IN. The Indian defence contracts are not an easy pick any more.

We did not do anything with the technology. The Koreans did. Nothing to do with contractual obligations.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Philip » 05 Nov 2019 18:02

Because of the hullabaloo over the alleged HDW scandal the VP Singh used against Rajiv G, found years later to have no proof, we stopped production of HDW subs and asininely instead of finding an alternative sub to build, dumped the entire manufacturing eqpt. acquired at great cost and sold it for scrap.Sometimes babudom is a greater enemy than our traditional ones.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby John » 05 Nov 2019 18:46

I doubt we would have done much with U-209 even without the scandal maybe exercised the option and ordered more but still let the line rust and sold off for scrap. There was no will for domestic built submarine class from all parties involved everyone wanted to import a new class and get in on huge $$ involved.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Philip » 06 Nov 2019 00:08

We would've graduated much earliet to upgraded U- boats with AIP.We were leaders in Asia then in sub- building but let even the Pakis overtake us with the Agosta-90Bs woth MESMA AIPsystems.Two+ decades on, we still haven't a single AIP sub while several in Asia do! Of course we've built our fledgling SSBNs, a great achievement but now need to rapidly acquire and build AIP ones too.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Aditya_V » 07 Nov 2019 08:44

Our AIP equipped SSP fleet will make even more sense K-4s. With P8s, Mh60R other Naval Aviation assets , SSP and 1 Aircraft carrier CBG we should sanitise the Northern bay of Bengal using A&N islands and East coast bases. While other SSBN can patrol other waters 2 SSBNs in Northern Bay of Bengal with K4 will always keep all.major Chinese cities in range.

Given that bases are close by , the silent SSP along with 1 or 2 SSN of ours along with Aviation and surface assets can keep the sea safe from any hostile SSN from trying to sneak in. In such a situation a silent SSP could prove deadly to more noisy SSN.

So our SSP/ SSK fleet will be used for 3 purposes

1) To defend vital ports/ bases from any hostile submarine trying to sneak in
2) To be offensive role in the Northern Arabian sea
3) To guard the Northern Bay of Bengal.

USA/UK/France has the luxury of having hostile nations very far away so do not need any SSK/SSP whereas nations in the Baltic always keep SSK/SSPs

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Thakur_B » 15 Jan 2020 07:54

https://m.economictimes.com/news/defenc ... ssion=true

News update.

MDL and L&T shortlisted by MoD for P75i.
HSL - Adani JV been shown the door (which they are contesting)
All 5 foreign tech collaborators have been cleared.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Karthik S » 15 Jan 2020 08:41

L&T please. Need a solid pvt player along with MDL and GRSE.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Ankit Desai » 15 Jan 2020 12:21

Karthik S wrote:L&T please. Need a solid pvt player along with MDL and GRSE.


+1

-Ankit

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Manish_P » 15 Jan 2020 14:13

Aditya_V wrote:Our AIP equipped SSP fleet will make even more sense K-4s...

Given that bases are close by , the silent SSP along with 1 or 2 SSN of ours along with Aviation and surface assets can keep the sea safe from any hostile SSN from trying to sneak in. In such a situation a silent SSP could prove deadly to more noisy SSN.

So our SSP/ SSK fleet will be used for 3 purposes

1) To defend vital ports/ bases from any hostile submarine trying to sneak in
2) To be offensive role in the Northern Arabian sea
3) To guard the Northern Bay of Bengal.


+1

This person is an ex-USN Submariner (with some very good youtube videos explaining submarineering tactics, terminology etc)

Image

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby pushkar.bhat » 15 Jan 2020 15:00

Austin wrote:If they want a 12 LACM VLS with 18 Torpedo then they are looking at 4000T class submarine and a conventional submarine of such class will have limitations in many aspects ......They are better off going nuclear for such boats.

Even the latest Australian sub proposed by France Shortfin Barracuda is around 4000 T but cannot carry more than 28 Torpedo and 12 subs cost $38 billion


I think someone trying to source a design that they can convert to an SSN without blinking an eyelid. :wink:

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby mody » 15 Jan 2020 15:17

I would prefer a modified stretched version of the U214 for P75I. Below would be my wish list for the subs:

1st batch of 6 Subs. 4 To be Built at MDl, 2 L&T.
1). Hull design to be provided by HDW. A Modified stretched U214 design.
Made using Midhani sourced special grade steel. Manufacturing Technik already available in house from the scorpene project.
2). Sonar to be German, should offer better performance than the USHUS-NG.
3). Torpedo tubes to be 24ft, to be able to accommodate the Varunastra torpedo.
4). 8 cell VLS to accommodate Brahmos-NG or Nirbhay missiles. Both can also be fired from torpedo tubes.
5). The combat management system etc. to be German.
6). AIP to be DRDO developed, if found to be mature and the performance OK or go with the Sterling cycle.
7). Active Towed array sonar, DRDO-NPO developed ALTAS, if ready and mature, or opt for the German Atlas Elektronik.
8]. Main engine and machinery German.
9). Batteries, Indian as used with the Kilo class or Japanese Lithium ion based batteries or German batteries as used with their latest U -boats.

Second Batch of 6 subs. 3 at MDL, 3 L&T
1). Hull design derived from 1st batch of 6 subs, plus scorpene experience.
Made using Midhani sourced special grade steel.
2). Sonar USHUS-NG-MK2. Performance to be comparable to the German and French sonars, used in the 1st batch of 6 P75I subs and scorpene respectively.
3). Torpedo tubes to be 24ft, to be able to accommodate the Varunastra torpedo.
4). 8 cell VLS to accommodate Brahmos-NG or Nirbhay missiles. Both can also be fired from torpedo tubes.
5). The combat management system etc. to be German, as used in P75I. Should be able to interface with our sonar and weapons.
6). AIP to be DRDO developed.
7). Active Towed array sonar, DRDO-NPO developed ALTAS, if ready and mature, or opt for the German Atlas or any other option.
8]. Main engine and machinery German.
9). Batteries, Indian, developed as per experience gained from Scorpene and P75I projects or Japanese Lithium ion based batteries.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Philip » 19 Jan 2020 18:34

Take a good hard look at the OZ sub programme eith the French.Mired in controversy, costs esczlating before rven onf boat hax started, because of the mega-ambitious programme of trying to tweak an AIP boat to equal capabilities of dn SSN.It's just not possible and the IN should not fall into this trap.If we fo follow the OZ route, we'll have very expensive and precious few AIP boats which when compared with an N-boat ton-for-ton will be costlier and less capable.

The P-75I programme according to dome is heading in that direction.No AIP sub can conduct a 100 day patrol, achieve speeds of 30 to 35kts. and dive and operate at 600m depth, carrying 30 to 40 weapons. This is why the SSN programme and leasing of extra Akula SSGNs must take top priority along with the planned SSBN fleet.
We need decent numbers of conv. AIP boats that do not cost more than around $450M to $ 500M a pop. For around $5 B we would be able to get around 8 to10 boats, considering hhat hhf current cost of a brand new Kilo 636.3 armed with Kalibir 2500km missiles,etc. ,6 being built for the RuN costs just $350+M.
When BMos NG arrives within 5 years,it would be available for the P-75Is. What these boats priority should bf is to be HuKs. Pak is going to have 8 Yuan class AIPs in addition to whatrver subs China permanently stations at Gwadar/ Jiwani and Djibouti..Once the new deepwater port in Burma is completed, we may have a third Chinese mllitary base in the IOR, not counting the Hambanhota port. Given the huge numbers of Chinese subs,80+ in a short time, the IN must possess ar leadt 24 conventional subs to have around 12 to 16 always on patrol.Part of our SSN fleet will be protecting our SSBNs and the 2 CBGs that we will shortly have.The Akula SSGNs could undertake multi-ocean ops just as the RuN use them around the US Atlantic seaboard.They could operate in the ICS ready to conduct offfnsive ops in that yheatre if need be, before PLAN CBGs,etc. enter the IOR.Our AIP subs patrolling the chokepoints. We have a variety of land and sea- based missiles to take out land targets in Pak

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby kit » 21 Jan 2020 21:11

Defence Ministry approves procurement of military hardware worth Rs 5,100 crore
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/defence-ministry-approves-procurement-of-military-hardware-worth-rs-5100-crore/articleshow/73491332.cms

The defence ministry on Tuesday approved procurement of military equipment worth over Rs 5100 crore from indigenous sources and gave the go-ahead to construct six conventional submarines for the Navy in India under the ambitious strategic partnership model.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rsatchi » 22 Jan 2020 02:38

Adani out of race for mega Navy submarine deal, Ministry of Defence shortlists 2 firms
https://theprint.in/defence/adani-out-o ... ms/352787/

So it is L&T vs Mazagon Dock. What will SoKo offer? DAC class?? has VLS for Cruise and Ballistic as per Wiki-chachaa with Samsung Li-Ion batteries. A beginner's pooch? Should we carry on with the French Design or try SoKo with VLS, etc.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby kit » 22 Jan 2020 02:50

Five foreign companies have expressed interest in the submarine project, of which Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and L&T will choose one each as their partner. The companies are South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Co. Ltd, France’s Naval Group, Spain’s Navantia, Russia’s Rosoboronexport and TKMS from Germany.

The contract is being processed under the “strategic partnership model", which combines an Indian manufacturer with a foreign company for technology know-how.

L&T with their history of nuclear sub manufacturing with Russian help could prefer Rosoboronexport.

Similarly, Mazagon could prefer Naval Group.

Now does TKMS, Daewoo and Navantia in that order have a fighting chance?

More than technical considerations would "relationships" hold out?

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 22 Jan 2020 06:33

India’s Defence Acquisition Council approves shortlist for Submarine construction project, keeps Adani Group out
http://delhidefencereview.com/2020/01/2 ... group-out/
21 January 2020

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 22 Jan 2020 06:36

Rsatchi wrote:So it is L&T vs Mazagon Dock. What will SoKo offer? DAC class?? has VLS for Cruise and Ballistic as per Wiki-chachaa with Samsung Li-Ion batteries. A beginner's pooch? Should we carry on with the French Design or try SoKo with VLS, etc.

kit wrote:Now does TKMS, Daewoo and Navantia in that order have a fighting chance?

More than technical considerations would "relationships" hold out?

This deal will go to Russia IMVHO.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 22 Jan 2020 06:39

Is the Navy still on with this fascination to launch BrahMos in VLS cells from Project 75I?

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rsatchi » 22 Jan 2020 12:43

Rakesh wrote:
Rsatchi wrote:So it is L&T vs Mazagon Dock. What will SoKo offer? DAC class?? has VLS for Cruise and Ballistic as per Wiki-chachaa with Samsung Li-Ion batteries. A beginner's pooch? Should we carry on with the French Design or try SoKo with VLS, etc.

kit wrote:Now does TKMS, Daewoo and Navantia in that order have a fighting chance?

More than technical considerations would "relationships" hold out?

This deal will go to Russia IMVHO.

Rakeshji
But will not SoKo be more forthcoming in tech transfer and with L&T having proven experience with Arihant parts maybe more rapid build than PSU and long delays(especially Left/political party controlled labour unions)!!
Plus DAC batch II having option of increasing VLS to 10 cells per WiKi

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby kit » 22 Jan 2020 17:35

Rakesh wrote:Is the Navy still on with this fascination to launch BrahMos in VLS cells from Project 75I?

I suppose there will be some advantage in launching long range cruise or hypersonic weapons using VLS rather than the traditional launch tubes ?..

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby wig » 22 Jan 2020 17:42

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/dac-s ... ines-29698
DAC shortlists firms to make submarines

extracts
Two Indian strategic partners (SP) — The Mazagon Docks Limited and L&T — have been shortlisted. MDL is owned by the Ministry of Defence and L&T is owned privately.

Five original equipment makers have been shortlisted. These include the Russians, one Korean company Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering, besides three Europeans — Naval Group, Thysen Kurup Marine Systems and Navantia.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Vips » 22 Jan 2020 19:51

Rakesh wrote:
Rsatchi wrote:So it is L&T vs Mazagon Dock. What will SoKo offer? DAC class?? has VLS for Cruise and Ballistic as per Wiki-chachaa with Samsung Li-Ion batteries. A beginner's pooch? Should we carry on with the French Design or try SoKo with VLS, etc.

kit wrote:Now does TKMS, Daewoo and Navantia in that order have a fighting chance?

More than technical considerations would "relationships" hold out?

This deal will go to Russia IMVHO.


I sincerely hope not. We will end up getting old wine in new bottle. (Kilo Class).

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 22 Jan 2020 22:19

Rsatchi: No ji please :)

@ Rsatchi / Vips: Disclaimer ---> I agree with you both and I am not in favour of the Russian design. But the Russians will offer the moon and we will likely fall for it. They may also put obstacles for integration of the BrahMos on a non-Russian sub. Which is why this foolhardy idea of putting BrahMos on Project 75I should be set aside. Leave that for the six SSN fleet that is being designed now at the Indian Naval Design Bureau.

Award the contract to MDL for the Project 75I contest and give L&T/Rosoboronexport the contract for the six SSN fleet. Share the peda/barfi :)

My ideal SSK would be a Type 216 design, 4,300 tons submerged, ocean-going SSK, with the non-magnetic hull of the Type 212 (which we will likely never get), DRDO-equipped AIP, Varunastra torpedoes and Harpoon/Exocet SLCMs or an Indian designed SLCM. That would be best IMO. A six + three option build (at the same cost of the first six, barring inflation) would be ideal.

And please take up Naval Group's offer of three additional Scorpenes...so the sub line is not sitting idle till Project 75I is inked. And put DRDO AIPs on all the Scorpene boats when they come in for their refits.

My order of preference would be;

1) Germans (Thysen Kurup Marine Systems)
2) French (Naval Group)
3) South Koreans (Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering)
4) Spain (Navantia)
5) Russia (Rosoboronexport)

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby kit » 22 Jan 2020 22:55

The French are the most likely to promise the moon rather than the Russians who are a known knowns :mrgreen: , , witness how the Aussies are having serious second thoughts about the French deal!

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Rakesh » 22 Jan 2020 23:00

Indeed. They will all offer the moon. OEMs will say anything to win the contract.

I doubtful of anything the Russians say though. The Vikramaditya episode is a stark reminder.

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Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby kit » 23 Jan 2020 03:54

Somehow i wish this should have been a Govt to Govt deal with guarantees rather than a contract out for grabs . Study every vendor on offer and throw out this contract. lets do a Rafale on this one. This contract is as important to the Navy as was the Rafale to the air force.

Philip
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Posts: 20426
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby Philip » 23 Jan 2020 10:25

At this rate we'll be lucky if a single SSN arrives in this decade,budgetwise. The IN must simply get as many AIP subs HuKs primarily to deal with Pak's 8 Yuans and sundry Chin intruders at reasonable cost. Leasing a few more Akulas the best way to maintain a strong multi-ocean capability,esp. if Kalibir missiles are also acquired. Good thatthe shortlist of yards has been done.
Perhaps a couple more Scorpenes built provided the French offer them at reasonable costs.

JTull
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2707
Joined: 18 Jul 2001 11:31

Re: Project 75I - It Begins

Postby JTull » 23 Jan 2020 14:04

Biggest issue with Russians is that they don't have a design to offer. They're offering co-development, which introduces serious uncertainties.


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