PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10249
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby pankajs » 04 Jul 2018 23:28

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-f ... 79991.html
Chinese Financial Markets Reaching Tipping Point
Signaling the level of concern at the highest level of the Chinese communist regime, the National Institute of Finance and Development, a regime-affiliated think tank, published a report last week warning of “financial panic.”

The report said the Chinese economy may be on the edge of disaster, brought on by a combination of increasing bond defaults, currency depreciation, tightening lending and liquidity, and trade tensions with the United States.

The think tank warned stock purchases using margin (borrowed funds) have reached levels last seen in 2015, which is especially dangerous as investors rush to unwind positions to meet margins calls in a market downturn, further exacerbating an ongoing crash.

“After the 2015 stock market disaster, the leveraged funds on the Chinese market have not been seriously cleaned up. Instead, there has merely been ‘a change of clothes,’” the report said.

The study is also concerned that the ongoing Sino–U.S. trade tensions will have serious knock-on effects for the Chinese economy and financial markets.

“The combination of old and new factors is likely to lead to a high degree of nervousness in the financial market and a sudden increase in market risk, which in turn induces financial panic,” said the report.

Might come to nothing but note that the government itself is very concerned. This is no outsider warning of disaster. Risk is just piling up in Xina.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17089
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chetak » 04 Jul 2018 23:45

pankajs wrote:https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-financial-markets-reaching-tipping-point_2579991.html
Chinese Financial Markets Reaching Tipping Point
Signaling the level of concern at the highest level of the Chinese communist regime, the National Institute of Finance and Development, a regime-affiliated think tank, published a report last week warning of “financial panic.”

The report said the Chinese economy may be on the edge of disaster, brought on by a combination of increasing bond defaults, currency depreciation, tightening lending and liquidity, and trade tensions with the United States.

The think tank warned stock purchases using margin (borrowed funds) have reached levels last seen in 2015, which is especially dangerous as investors rush to unwind positions to meet margins calls in a market downturn, further exacerbating an ongoing crash.

“After the 2015 stock market disaster, the leveraged funds on the Chinese market have not been seriously cleaned up. Instead, there has merely been ‘a change of clothes,’” the report said.

The study is also concerned that the ongoing Sino–U.S. trade tensions will have serious knock-on effects for the Chinese economy and financial markets.

“The combination of old and new factors is likely to lead to a high degree of nervousness in the financial market and a sudden increase in market risk, which in turn induces financial panic,” said the report.

Might come to nothing but note that the government itself is very concerned. This is no outsider warning of disaster. Risk is just piling up in Xina.


This is exactly why they have toned down their response to the trump trade wars.

It is not usual for the hans to take such insults to them lying down. Trump is working with prior intelligence inputs and many china watchers may be fully aware of the finer details of the growing disaster.

The hans are walking on eggshells right now. All their OBOR/BRI/CPEC initiatives have tapered off very considerably and the ROI on their OBOR/BRI/CPEC investments to date is practically nil.

Their export earnings have slowed and costs are rising in China.

They desperately need pliable markets for their junk exports.

They also need quieter borders and lesser tensions with their neighbors and maybe that was what Wuhan meeting was about??

The well timed Indo pacific initiatives of the amerikis may not be a mere happenstance but a pre-planned strategic strike to wrest the advantage from a weakened adversary.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10249
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby pankajs » 05 Jul 2018 00:03

Pesh hai aap logo-n ki khidmat me ... One chart that tells it all ... if you know what you are looking at. {Added Later: to really understand the scale check how the near horizontal US data on the comparison chart (1st chart) would have looked plotted alone (2nd chart)}

Daniel Lacalle Verified account @dlacalle_IA

"China is adopting sound money and the US is a bubb"...Ooooooops

Image


US M2 on its own; to better understand the scale of things
Image

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 08 Jul 2018 15:39

Keiser Report: Genuine Trade War


chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2517
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chola » 08 Jul 2018 15:48

Unkil is not number one for nothing.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 09 Jul 2018 14:47

US soybean farmers say China tariffs could result in 'serious damage'

http://money.cnn.com/2018/07/07/news/ec ... index.html

Soybean farmers, apple growers and auto workers are among the US workers bracing for fallout from a trade war between the United States and China.


Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 11 Jul 2018 09:30

David Stockman to Trump: Blame the Fed, Not Trade Deals, for U.S. Trade Deficit


Neshant
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4467
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Neshant » 11 Jul 2018 22:31


China Steals Secrets Behind Apple's Self-Driving Car


The US has arrested a former Apple employee who allegedly tried to abscond with sensitive proprietary information from the company's closely guarded self-driving car project, according to the Financial Times. Xiaolang Zhang, who had recently left his position at Apple under suspicious circumstances, was arrested by FBI agents as he tried to board a plane bound for mainland China.

Zhang joined Apple in December 2015, and was arrested on July 7. US prosecutors allege that he had downloaded sensitive information about the company's self-driving car research without permission. During his time at the company, Zhang worked "to develop software and hardware for use in autonomous vehicles."

The charges against Zhang represent the latest in a series of arrests made by federal authorities of Chinese spies carrying out what the US government calls "economic espionage" that date back to 2006.

...

The complaint against Mr Zhang said about 5,000 of Apple’s 135,000 full-time employees have security clearance for Titan, although that figure may include staff across the company working on artificial intelligence technology, as well as hundreds of people working on the car project itself.

...

Apple began an internal investigation and allegedly found he had downloaded information about its autonomous vehicle project. CCTV footage showed he had also taken a large box from Apple’s self-driving car lab shortly before informing his supervisor about his resignation, the US government claimed.




https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... ar-secrets

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 12 Jul 2018 09:06

PBC has weakned Yuan sharply

The People's Bank of China on Thursday against the background of another round of aggravation of the trade dispute with the US sharply weakened the yuan against the dollar by 0.73%, according to the regulator.

On Thursday, the regulator set the average exchange rate at 6.6726 yuan per dollar, which is 492 points more than on Wednesday, when the rate was 6.6234.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 12 Jul 2018 09:07

I wonder if we will see a competitive devaluation of currency in SE Asia as trade war progress , PBC is doing it and how long others will be.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 13 Jul 2018 16:44

China trade surplus with US hits record high in June

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44818316

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2517
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chola » 13 Jul 2018 16:54

Austin wrote:China trade surplus with US hits record high in June

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44818316


Panic buying before the tariffs. Their surplus will go down with the US in the coming months, especially after the $200B tariffs hit.

But depending on how well they crack down on third country re-shipments, you would see chini surplus go up with with the rest of the world who in turn will replace Cheen in Amreeki surplus stats.

The US will continue to have trade deficit with or without China. It is simply too wealthy, too heavily powered by consumption compared to the rest of the world.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 13 Jul 2018 17:41

you would see chini surplus go up with with the rest of the world who in turn will replace Cheen in Amreeki surplus stats.


That is assuming " ROW " would replace Chini goods without going through the same tarrif barrier that US has put up in China , Likely the ROW would face the same trade barrier in some way or other

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 18 Jul 2018 23:22

China stealing US IP worth $300 B per year

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/58106731 ... show-clips

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 20 Jul 2018 09:45

China "Weaponizes Yuan" - Weakens Fix By Most Since 2016


zerohedge
@zerohedge
In the past 48 hours China has:
- Cut its 7-day Treasury rate by 103bps
- Launched quasi QE
- told banks to flood the system with liquidity
- Sent the Yuan tumbling
- Warned more easing is coming

yensoy
BRFite
Posts: 873
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby yensoy » 20 Jul 2018 12:49

Austin wrote:China "Weaponizes Yuan" - Weakens Fix By Most Since 2016
zerohedge@zerohedge
In the past 48 hours China has:
- Cut its 7-day Treasury rate by 103bps
- Launched quasi QE
- told banks to flood the system with liquidity
- Sent the Yuan tumbling
- Warned more easing is coming


So China will have even more inflation then? Not just inflation in house prices (which happens whether they print or soak liquidity) but all around pocket pinching inflation, like food (heavily dependent on imports of fruits, meat, soya - for oil & fodder), petroleum (due to drop of yuan), and concomitant products. I guess there will be more money for more malinvestments, more bridges to nowhere, more unoccupied apartment blocks, more piles of rusting shared bicycles. No wonder OBOR is so critical to Eleven, it's a way to make the money actually worth something in the future.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 22 Jul 2018 10:33

Good Write up on how china can draw the US in counter sanctions

4 powerful weapons China has in its arsenal to win the US-China trade war

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 22 Jul 2018 10:36

Best route for China is to stake it step wise devaluate the Yuan Gradually and Impose Tarrif on purchase of Boeing aircraft which has big market in China by 15 % and give Airbus preference that would be good enough and a good escalation ladder to start with , they can take it up from there by making US companies harder to access China market and EU and India other would be happy to oblige

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10249
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby pankajs » 22 Jul 2018 10:57

Yesterday I was listening to a podcast where this US economist was suggesting that instead of tariff US could/should have gone the devaluation route against China.

That is to say US should have started buying Yuan in the open market to devalue Dollar.

While USD is a free floating currency, nothing prevents the FEDs from operating in the FX market and start mopping up Yuan hand over fists and send it soaring. It's a game the two could play.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 22 Jul 2018 11:34

Trade war to accelerate decline of US empire as China & India dominance grows – Dr. Doom Marc Faber

“The US as an empire against the rest of the world peaked in 1950s or 1960s. Then, there have been other countries that have become more powerful, in particular China and now increasingly India. The US empire and its influence on the world is diminishing and has been diminishing for quite some time,” he told RT. The trade war may accelerate this “mutation” in the global economic balance “with other countries becoming more important and the US less important,” Faber said.

According to Faber, the US is likely to be the biggest loser from the trade war it started. “The winners in a real trade war would be everyone except the US. The Europeans would trade more with Asia, and the Asians would trade more with Europe than the US. There would be more trade between the emerging economies and China and vice versa,” Faber said.


Another winner from the trade would be Russia since China would buy more resources from the country, while Moscow would buy more from Beijing, he said.

The US stock market has thus far ignored the news about the global trade war, Faber notes. “But if there is trade war, it is not good for the global economic growth. The global economy is slowing down already. I think it would be a big mistake to go ahead with the trade war.”

The countries most exposed to the trade war in emerging markets are Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina, due to their fiscal problems, growing deficits, and weak currencies amid large amounts of foreign debt, Faber said.


With the global economy financed by soaring debt since the last global crisis of 2008-2009 another recession is likely to come, but its shape is not yet known, according to the investor.

Despite the recent strength of the US dollar, especially against the currencies of emerging economies, Faber says the trend will not continue in the long run. He says the best way to protect individual investments in times of turmoil is to diversify the portfolio with cash, bonds, precious metals, and real estate

souravB
BRFite
Posts: 103
Joined: 07 Jun 2018 13:52

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby souravB » 23 Jul 2018 03:09

An old but very informative discussion on Chinese vs Indian economy.
Some of the points raised has come to pass in these years too.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10249
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby pankajs » 23 Jul 2018 15:07

China Beige Book @ChinaBeigeBook

"Growing distress in #China’s $4T corp bond mkt has turned the spotlight onto private fund managers who make millions from arranging issuances for desperate companies in return for under-the-table cash payments"https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-07-18/bond-markets-dirty-little-secret-exposed-101306115.html …
China Beige Book @ChinaBeigeBook

"This is the 2nd time the PBOC has attempted to boost confidence in the corp bond mkt via the MLF. In June, it broadened the collateral it would accept for MLF loans, down to AA+ & AA" Now...junk. Curious way to promote deleveraging https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-07-19 ... 06543.html

Growing distress in #China’s $4T corp bond mkt .. so now the Chinese central bank, PBOC, will accept "Junk" bonds as collateral to boost confidence in the corp bond mkt.

Bery nice!

isubodh
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 25
Joined: 03 Oct 2008 18:23

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby isubodh » 23 Jul 2018 17:28

Austin wrote:Best route for China is to stake it step wise devaluate the Yuan Gradually and Impose Tarrif on purchase of Boeing aircraft which has big market in China by 15 % and give Airbus preference that would be good enough and a good escalation ladder to start with , they can take it up from there by making US companies harder to access China market and EU and India other would be happy to oblige


:) Why would Airbus wait to not increase the prices for China market when their main competitor has been put out of play.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10249
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby pankajs » 23 Jul 2018 22:17

China Beige Book @ChinaBeigeBook

"#China’s banking system exists to serve SOEs, so private firms must rely on shadow banking. But officials are clamping down, w/private biz bearing the brunt" Yet, CBB data now show "this shadow lending is re-formalizing to banks, w/lower rates to boot" https://m.scmp.com/news/china/economy/a ... sing?amp=1

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10249
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby pankajs » 25 Jul 2018 17:55

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1KF0R6
In China's debt-laden Xiamen, real estate boom chokes consumption

XIAMEN, China/BEIJING (Reuters) - Yang Xiaodao, a 26-year-old civil servant in the Chinese city of Xiamen, says taking out a 30-year-mortgage on a two-bedroom apartment with her husband was the most regrettable decision of her life.

Although their parents covered the 1.5 million yuan (£172,285) down payment on the 2.9 million yuan flat, mortgage payments eat up more than 70 percent of the couple’s combined income of about 10,000 yuan a month - average for the city.

“Our spending power has plummeted,” Yang said. “We do not dare to have a kid. We do not dare to buy a car. We do not dare to travel.”

Throughout China, home prices that are among the highest in the world relative to incomes have pushed millions of households to debt levels similar to those seen in the United States just before its housing crisis, according to a new study by the Institute for Advanced Research at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

Economists are sounding the alarm that such debt has started to crimp consumption, undermining Bejing’s plan to lean on domestic demand to drive growth amid a heated trade dispute with the United States.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 04 Aug 2018 20:07

China US Pow Pow

US : US presidential adviser Donald Trump on economics Larry Kudlow said that Washington will continue to exert pressure on Beijing to achieve trade concessions. In addition, Kudlow said that "the economy and currency of China is weak, and people are leaving the country," and called on not to underestimate Trump's determination to "bring the matter to the end."


China: "The state of China's economy is evident to the entire international community: annually our contribution to the development of the world economy is about 30%, this is the same as the US, Japan and Europe are putting in. I do not know why he said that the Chinese economy is in a bad state. At least this is not true, "Wang Yi commented at a press conference on the ASEAN events in Singapore.

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 6373
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby disha » 05 Aug 2018 03:18

Austin wrote:China: "The state of China's economy is evident to the entire international community: annually our contribution to the development of the world economy is about 30%, this is the same as the US, Japan and Europe are putting in. I do not know why he said that the Chinese economy is in a bad state. At least this is not true, "Wang Yi commented at a press conference on the ASEAN events in Singapore.


That means the Chinese economy is fragile., by taking the bait Wang Yi confirmed the state of Chinese economy. It is fragile.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21761
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 05 Aug 2018 08:05

China introduces 25% tarrif on US LNG imports

kancha
BRFite
Posts: 809
Joined: 20 Apr 2005 19:13

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby kancha » 13 Aug 2018 11:22

Link

@spectatorindex

BREAKING: Prime Minister of Malaysia Mahathir Mohamad says his government will cancel major infrastructure projects backed by China.

Arima
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 17
Joined: 05 Apr 2018 14:45

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Arima » 13 Aug 2018 12:21

pankajs wrote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-consumption/in-chinas-debt-laden-xiamen-real-estate-boom-chokes-consumption-idUSKBN1KF0R6
In China's debt-laden Xiamen, real estate boom chokes consumption

XIAMEN, China/BEIJING (Reuters) - Yang Xiaodao, a 26-year-old civil servant in the Chinese city of Xiamen, says taking out a 30-year-mortgage on a two-bedroom apartment with her husband was the most regrettable decision of her life.

Although their parents covered the 1.5 million yuan (£172,285) down payment on the 2.9 million yuan flat, mortgage payments eat up more than 70 percent of the couple’s combined income of about 10,000 yuan a month - average for the city.

“Our spending power has plummeted,” Yang said. “We do not dare to have a kid. We do not dare to buy a car. We do not dare to travel.”

Throughout China, home prices that are among the highest in the world relative to incomes have pushed millions of households to debt levels similar to those seen in the United States just before its housing crisis, according to a new study by the Institute for Advanced Research at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

Economists are sounding the alarm that such debt has started to crimp consumption, undermining Bejing’s plan to lean on domestic demand to drive growth amid a heated trade dispute with the United States.



in India a family with 10 k monthly income first of all will not get loan for 30 lac unless interest rate is like 3-4%. is that the case?

artificial low interest rate
plus jacked up rates causing housing bubble?

if so then we are in a tinder box waiting to implode.

alexis
BRFite
Posts: 448
Joined: 13 Oct 2004 22:14
Contact:

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby alexis » 14 Aug 2018 20:34

^^

The loan is 1.4 million; still too much of a risk taken by the bank inspite of the lower interest rate there.


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests