Satya_anveshi saar,
beautifully explained.
williams saar,
I too think this may not all be bad for Bhaarath if we can create alternate sources of energy. Having said that, this looks like a simple scam because the people pushing it stand to gain. Even in west, only the Democrats seem to be pushing it because Repubs are known as supporters of oil-coal and vice-versa.
A_Gupta wrote:a. Denial of global warming is denial of basic science.
b. If you are a gardener, the reality of global warming will be apparent to you.
There are several points in this:
a) Carbon emissions are increasing massively due to human actions.
b) more carbon emissions means global warming.
c) there is a global warming.
a) Carbon emissions are increasing massively due to human actions.
The carbon emissions due to human actions are quite less in percentage. Carbon itself is quite less in percentage of atmosphere.
b) more carbon emissions means global warming.
This correlation between carbon and warming is not at all established. This is the most important point. The whole game is based on this correlation which is not even properly established. Infact, troposphere temperature readings contradict this theory. If there was global warming due to carbon emissions, then the temperatures should have been higher in troposphere. But, there doesn't seem to be any such thing. Infact, the temperatures at troposphere are lower. Carbon is considered as one of the minor greenhouse gas. Water-vapour is a bigger greenhouse gas. The carbon emissions are not really massive. They are really really less in the atmosphere. So, they are unlikely to make any big impact on climate either way.
Ocean is supposedly a sink for carbon. If we heat the ocean, it releases the carbon. If we cool the ocean, it absorbs the carbon. I don't know how true this theory is, but I heard this theory.
Wiki Link
c) there is a global warming.
This is the real issue. Is there global warming or not? Please notice that they have shifted goal post these days. From global warming to climate change. Now, climate itself is ever changing, so whats the big deal. Has there been any major climate change in last 100 years when the industrialization has started?
Global temperature:
How do they measure the global temperature?
Scientists use four major datasets to study global temperature. The UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit jointly produce HadCRUT4 .
In the US, the GISTEMP series comes via the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS), while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) creates the MLOST record. The Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA) produces a fourth dataset.
Link
So, its basically 4 major datasets are combined from four weather stations:
- GISS: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences
- HadCRUT4: UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit
- MLOST record: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- JMA: Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA)
So, basically, its US, UK and Japan joint venture. One interesting thing is that Japan is very big on this climate change thing. Lets assume that there is no hanky panky in these raw numbers. Even then, it is mostly centered around Pacific ocean and north-atlantic(towards the poles). What about Africa and Asia? What about Indian Ocean? Indian Ocean, Africa and Asia make up most of the world in terms of coverage.
Temperature measurement with instruments:
Surface temperature records have been maintained by measuring with instruments from 1880.
Wiki Link. The satellites have been measuring troposphere temperature from 1978.
The temperatures did not rise from 1940 to 1975. Instead, they went down. 1940 to 1975 is the heavily industrialized period when carbon emissions were high, yet the temperatures went down.
Climate change theory and Kyoto Protocol:
Climate change thing was brought forward in 1992 and Kyoto Protocol was adopted. From 1992 to 2015, its been more than 20 years yet the issue has not been proved at all. By 20 years, if there was climate change, it should have been painfully obvious. After 1992, there has been a global pause in 'global warming' from 1998 for next 18 years. Imagine, that!
Experience:
What great climatic changes have we seen from 1992 to now? The regular climate is more or less the same. Same winters and same summers. Some times the winter comes early, sometime a bit late. Sometimes its warmer, sometimes its chiller. The last winter was especially cold at our place. But, this winter has been quite normal. So, there doesn't seem to be any trend of heating or cooling from normal experience.
Global Pause:
There has been no global warming atleast in a period of 18 years from 1998. This is called a 'pause' to explain away that there is a larger global warming trend. Now, firstly, the larger trend is really unknown because the temperatures were not known before 1880 period. They are guessed just as they are guessing temperatures for future.
Larger trend of climate temperature from 1880:
From 1880 to 1940, the global temperature rose by just a half-degree Celsius. Just half-degree! And this increase in temperature began long before mass industrialization. The industrialization started in earnest after ww2 because mass production of cars, TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, ...etc were produced. This is called post-war economic boom. During this period, the temperature should have risen if there was a correlation between industrialization and global warming. But, instead, the temperatures fell. And they fell for about 35 years. Imagine that! 35 year! The temperatures again started increasing in 1975 when there was an economic recession. That shows that there is no correlation between industrialization and global temperatures.
Big business and funding:
This whole thing is a big business with many jobs involved. So, you can't expect them to tell you facts which might jeopardize their jobs. And funding is given only to those scientists who support this theory and not to those who oppose it. The developed countries are putting sanctions on the developing countries in the name of 'carbon emissions' without proving that these emissions will lead to any change in climate.
Adjustments to raw data to prove global warming:
The raw data of satellite and other temperature measuring instruments don't proving climate change theory. But, they adjust this based on their models. Now, once they start adjusting the data, all kinds of subjective bias comes into play. If you expect the global warming to happen, then you adjust the data to reflect that.
Computer Models and predictions:
The computer models use a few variables to arrive at their guesses for future and past temperatures. But, they tell us that these models are useless to predict the temperatures in future. For example, can the computer model predict what will be the temperature after 5 yrs? If the computer model can correctly predict the temperature after 5 yrs and the same model says that there is a global warming, then people might be less skeptical.
Summary:
The temperature is being measured from 1880. It shows that the temperatures fell from 1940 to 1975. And there was no rise from 1998 to 2006. From 1998, there was been a 'pause'. Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1992 which allowed the developed countries to squeeze the developing countries. Democrats are the big supporters of this. So far, its not been proved that carbon emissions leads to climate change. And its not established that there is any kind of climate change: hot or cold. From 1992, 20 years have passed, so the climate change should have been painfully obvious if it was true.
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I am still open to the idea of climate change thing being atleast partially true if not wholly true. But, so far, I am skeptical. Anyway, I think environment protection is a good idea. But, the developed nations should be leading the way. If the developed nations are serious about environment protection, they should help the poor nations by giving tech and money. They should not be squeezing the poor countries to put more restrictions on the poor.
Suraj saar,
thanks for allowing a proper discussion.