Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

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Austin
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Austin » 07 Mar 2019 09:36

What Will Follow a U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan?

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/0 ... an/155311/

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby chetak » 07 Mar 2019 10:02

disha wrote:
sudeepj wrote:It is not necessary that the attacks be in Kashmir, they can happen along the coastline, can take the form of an IED campaign, an assassination campaign and so on. But if nothing else changes, a Jihadi offensive is coming, we should be in no doubt about that.


Bakis are barbarians at the gate. And this barbarians with their assorted anti-India are always upto something. We only know about it when they succeed.

In fact, assassinations and terror strikes are overt attempts and any of such overt attempts should be met with surgical strikes.


The pakis have every intention to absorb and subsume the afghan state know it into their own state of pukiland, minus of course the cheeni share. The hans will take away the richest of the mineral rich deposit lands.

Afghan resources and the land mass will provide the lebensraum as well the strategic depth that they so desperately crave, not to mention the enormous mineral wealth just waiting to be stolen and the water flowing into pukilund from there.

They need the amerikis out, the Indians out, the cheeni partially in as well as iran out so iran does not to grab what they covet in that region.

This is the duplicitous game the pakis have been playing out for the longest time. They are hoping that they get appointed as chowkidars by the amerikis with a fat ameriki payment coming in regularly.

If the amerikis can negotiate a politically victorious withdrawal from the afghan mess, with the help of the taliban, the pakis and the ummah who provide fighters there, they will throw India under the bus, without a second thought.

The pakis, no matter what they say, fear the durrand line impasse that will take on a life of its own, were the amerikis and other UNSC members to let it bubble up to the surface of the international media.

the cheeni veto will play no part in the western media onslaught and the shaping of the afghan paki border issues, creating another cashmere/palestine for the pakis, along with baluchis and the long smouldering, seething sindh issues.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Singha » 07 Mar 2019 12:37

trump is desperate for a political "victory" to wave.
he will probably overrule his advisors and make a quick deal with the taliban to exit
NATO ISAF will not last long, they will follow in few months

the blowback will be felt by afghan govt, iran and india.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Chinmayanand » 07 Mar 2019 14:04

Pre 2001 , there was taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan .After US runs with its tail in between it's legs and hands over the reins to taliban , what will the taliban do ? Enjoy their Victory in Kabul or march to Delhi and Tehran ?

The other side of the coin is since US was in Afghanistan , India could not punish Pakistan because of supplies through paki land. So , once US pulls out , there will be no undue pressure.
India will be free to act and react as it desires.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby sudeepj » 07 Mar 2019 21:21

Singha wrote:trump is desperate for a political "victory" to wave.
he will probably overrule his advisors and make a quick deal with the taliban to exit
NATO ISAF will not last long, they will follow in few months

the blowback will be felt by afghan govt, iran and india.


The US is currently in a battle for its position as the global hegemon with China. In this battle, Afghanistan is going to be a side show in this, with the large area of interest being the Indo-Pacific.

Pakistan is hoping to once again play its card as being the gate keeper to the Indian ocean from central asia. In fact, CPEC should be called CPMC (military corridor).

The hitch is that India in 5-10 years is going to be so large an economy, so large a market, so large and capable an armed force that it becomes the key swing state. And what good is a gateway to the Indian ocean if the keys to that gate are held by your enemy?

On the other side of the Hormuz strait, the war between Shia and Sunni is raging, and there is no sign of it cooling down anytime soon. So there is a possibility of the Pakistanis selling their services there too.

My understanding of the current geostrategic board is as above.

Pakis see this as a possible strategic opening and have struck. On the flip side, for the powers that be, the utility of an intact Pakistan that sees itself in a permanent competition with India is fast diminishing. How can such a Pakistan be relied on to keep the Han army bottled up behind the Himalayas? With its non-state actors, its madrassas, its jihadi elite, such a Pakistan will always be a fly in the ointment. At the key moment, they will place impossible demands on the alliance partners. It will change alliances at the first hint of crisis. Too big and powerful to be manipulated, too small for its demands to actually be met.

The easiest solution is for this made up state to die and smaller, ethnic states can emerge out of this mess. And India and the US should work towards this. A token 1 division deployment in Afghanistan only lets Pakistan dictate the terms of engagement. Its better to keep military forces coherent and cohesive, rather than spreading them too thin. The only real threat to Pak from the Afghan side is through running an insurgency of your own, which can still be done without the large American presence.

The direction that Pak has taken has made conflict with India, structurally inevitable. We should prepare well with a system of alliances.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby khan » 07 Mar 2019 21:50

IMO, with this Balakot thing winding down, it is only natural for India to send some troops to Afghanistan and share the burden.

India too has interests there and there is a UN mandate for the Afghanistan mission.

If the Bakis try their shenanigans in Afghanistan, then do more air-strikes. Maybe all the training with the Americans will be useful after all.

The Bakis are probably thinking of taking some pressure off by moving their terrorists from Kashmir to Afghanistan, might as well deny them that opportunity and their cherished “strategic depth”.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Singha » 07 Mar 2019 21:51

https://in.reuters.com/article/afghanis ... NKCN1N80FA

unlike in the past where hazara shias were thrashed by the pashtun taliban, they seem to have armed themselves in central af and wont go down without a fight. the two uzbek warlords dostum and abdul malik pehlwan both have their militias and 'spheres of influence' up north.

I am not sure who are the main tajik warlords these days - mohd fahim passed away a few years ago. tajikistan and uzbekistan are the key states for russia and india to "reach in" and shape things. further west, turkmenistan seems to be a turkey & china pasand state.

iran I am sure is planning to create its buffer state in the west centered on herat and will be looking for some ishmael khan type character (he himself is a bit long in tooth now)

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Singha » 07 Mar 2019 21:54

the hazara-tajik-uzbek alliance has to be tight to fight the pashtun talibs. if they dont fight together they are done.

Image

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby sudeepj » 08 Mar 2019 01:16

This map posted by Singha Ji is just one of the structural reasons why Pakistan is compelled to wage jihad. How to keep these warring tribes together with some semblance of national purpose? The purpose today is Jihad and "Pakistan Islam ka Qilla". The Pashtun population in particular is crying under the boot of the pakjabi jihadi elite.

In any case, the current borders were drawn by the British and their colonial policy of "forward borders". They were neither voted on, nor drawn in the kind of peace after an ethnic conflict that resulted in stable borders and prosperous states in Europe.

In the end game, these borders must change if there is to be peace between India and Pakistan.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby SBajwa » 08 Mar 2019 02:49

V_Raman wrote:I have said this multiple times before and still I believe it - there will be Indian boots in Afghanistan.

Iran is neutralized with trading in rupees with India. So they will not have issues.

I still believe we will sign-up for F18 - engine commonality with LCA, engine tech, navy carrier fighter, NLCA help.

We are realizing the items needed to defend the homeland - arihant, LCA, S400, 155mm ugrade, and Rafale. Are there others? Arjun Mk2?

Boots might happen once we have these operationalized.


100% agreed! Without Indian boots on ground in Afghanistan Taliban proxies will come back up.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Singha » 08 Mar 2019 10:08

two new countries north AF and south AF will be born out of this once dust settles.

pakjabis can try to control the pashtuns but in reality nobody in history has been able to control them and put them to work in gandhian ways.
whether alexandar in 330BC , russians, british, mongols, huns ..... everyone had a rough time in the rugged land.

endless war and hardship seems baked into their DNA. once the talibunistan is formed, it will be time for the tail to wag the dog.

north AF may be viable long term as a country. south AF will remain a sort of violent ultra conservative sultanate .... perhaps the saudis would like to use it against iran and paks want to use it against india.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby SBajwa » 08 Mar 2019 20:43

Singha wrote:two new countries north AF and south AF will be born out of this once dust settles.

pakjabis can try to control the pashtuns but in reality nobody in history has been able to control them and put them to work in gandhian ways.
whether alexandar in 330BC , russians, british, mongols, huns ..... everyone had a rough time in the rugged land.

endless war and hardship seems baked into their DNA. once the talibunistan is formed, it will be time for the tail to wag the dog.

north AF may be viable long term as a country. south AF will remain a sort of violent ultra conservative sultanate .... perhaps the saudis would like to use it against iran and paks want to use it against india.


Maharaja Ranjit Singh with Hari Singh Nalwa as governor of Peshawar ruled the whole of Afghanistan. Afghanistan not only paid annual tribute to Maharaja but also gave him the Kohinoor diamond.

Hari Singh Nalwa would give two days to a village who had not paid tribute and then surround them burning it down totally along with its inhabitants. The dialogue in Sholay where mothers tell kids to sleep otherwise Gabbar will come is actually true till date. Afghani mothers still scare their kids that Hari Singh Nalwa will come.

When Nalwa got infected at the fort of Jamrud and had a high fever. He told his soldiers that to keep his body outside in open under the flag of Sarkar Khalsa and keep shifting it from time to time so that Afghanis think that I am still alive. Afghanis feared him so much that they didn't dared to attack the fort and reinforcement under Prince Sher Singh arrived after Hari Singh's death.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Paul » 11 Mar 2019 13:05

Amrullah Saleh


@AmrullahSaleh2
59m59 minutes ago
More
The so called investigative report claiming Mullah Omar lived & died in Afg is nothing but a manipulative piece of propaganda aimed to give a leg to ISI denial that there is no Quetta Shura.There is.The physical feature of Doha negotiators show they haven't been in field or caves

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Manish_P » 11 Mar 2019 14:10

SBajwa wrote:100% agreed! Without Indian boots on ground in Afghanistan Taliban proxies will come back up.


Extremely tough & costly without a direct land route. Unkil (and others) need to contribute with material and money.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Vikas » 11 Mar 2019 16:50

There is no way any Indian govt is going to send soldiers to Afg in near future. Even with Indian forces, Talibans will be holding a major part of Southern Afghanistan, add Pakis to the mix and we have deadly cocktail. What Americans could not do in 18 years despite all the money and ammunition and direct access, Don't think India will be able to achieve even fraction of that. This is one case where fighting here is better than fighting there.

The use case itself doesn't outweigh the benefits especially once the body bags start coming in.
Help, support, money, gunships - Yes
Boots on the ground - NO

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby V_Raman » 13 Mar 2019 01:40

If India wants the neighborhood to be peaceful - we have no choice. We are too big to not provide a security umbrella in our neighborhood. I dont think we can take over POK or any other territory from Pakistan. That will be a disaster and set us back by decades. We need to move Sauron's eye to some other place while we build up the mainland and the friendly neighborhood. It is very possible to see Indian boots in the next decade if the current dispensation holds. By that time Mk2 will be ready which will be the backbone of the fighter fleet. We better be a credible force in UAV tech along with MCA program if we want to be a country worth our geography by that timeframe. Otherwise, Sauron will have us for lunch.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby nam » 13 Mar 2019 01:51

The fact is there is no Afghanistan with Pashtuns in the south. We should just fund and arm a anti-Taliban force to protect the Tajik, Uzbeck and Shia regions of Afghanistan.

Create a armed version with LGB and highly accurate dumb bomb capability with HTT 40. Fund 100 0r 200 for ANA. Will provide good CAS against any Taliban offensive.Easy and cheap to maintain. This on the condition that the Northern group form a proper government and not warlords. Provide with a top cover with sqd of IAF or Tajik jets from Tajik airbase, to protect against PAF, if required.

Transfer our 105MM IFG over to ANA. Built a ammo production unit somewhere in the northern.

This should be enough to hold off any Taliban offensive and not get ourself involved in the mess.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby MeshaVishwas » 14 Mar 2019 19:32

Suggest the rakshaks to see the video in full.
What the Afghans are going through is a source of inspiration, IMO.
Bad Haqqani playing the devil's advocate and Government of Afghanistan NSA Amb Dr. Mohib being the guest.
https://www.hudson.org/events/1663-the-future-of-u-s-afghanistan-relations-a-view-from-afghanistan32019
The discussion starts off with a Helicopter Shot over Long On by Amrullah Saleh(Absent,but his statement was read out)
His(NSA's) takedown of the stooge of the Uniformed Jehadi Inc. "Foreign Minister" Snake Oil Qureshi was EPIC.
The event starts at 17:39, so please FF.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Singha » 14 Mar 2019 21:38

a civil war has erupted in mazar e sharif between forces loyal to atta mohamad noor and federal govt
US pro consul has appealed for calm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atta_Muhammad_Nur

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Mazar has turned into a battlefield - and it has nothing to do with Taliban.
Atta's elements in "national police" and militiamen are resisting appointment of a new Balkh police chief by the central gov as against "agreement with Kabul." Gov using special forces to install him.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Singha » 14 Mar 2019 21:39

mazar is a really beautiful and planned city, with many neat tree lined avenues.
a marytr massoud avenue is there.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby V_Raman » 15 Mar 2019 02:51

Singha wrote:mazar is a really beautiful and planned city, with many neat tree lined avenues.
a marytr massoud avenue is there.


lament time - the city looks beautiful and very clean! and this is a worn torn city!! we just dont get cleanliness somehow!!!

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby sudeepj » 15 Mar 2019 04:47

MeshaVishwas wrote:Suggest the rakshaks to see the video in full.
What the Afghans are going through is a source of inspiration, IMO.
Bad Haqqani playing the devil's advocate and Government of Afghanistan NSA Amb Dr. Mohib being the guest.
https://www.hudson.org/events/1663-the-future-of-u-s-afghanistan-relations-a-view-from-afghanistan32019
The discussion starts off with a Helicopter Shot over Long On by Amrullah Saleh(Absent,but his statement was read out)
His(NSA's) takedown of the stooge of the Uniformed Jehadi Inc. "Foreign Minister" Snake Oil Qureshi was EPIC.
The event starts at 17:39, so please FF.


Deeply moving statement by Amrullah Saleh. That Pakistan can get away with an invasion of a neighboring state with impunity in this day and age, fifty years after the UN Charter came into existence blows a hole into the idea of an 'international rules based order'. They are a rogue state, and if they are allowed to get away with this conquest and colonization of Afghanistan, there will be no end to war in the Indian subcontinent.

For our own safety, we need to see the war in Afghanistan as our own and take action on the East of the Indus, West of the Kabul to impose costs on Pakistan that matter to them. So far, the costs we have imposed have been economic, and they rather happened by themselves, as Pakistan stewed in its own juice. Pakistani social & political economy is quite capable of bearing these costs. They have the chutzpah to first give the worse IMR to their countries poor, then demand foreign aid for it! All the while purchasing cutting edge weapons and platforms!

We desperately need new ideas of what costs we can impose.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby banrjeer » 15 Mar 2019 06:21

this article describes moralistic shell and such like..

https://www.firstpost.com/india/why-ind ... 86278.html

what's the situation like now? moralistic/artillery shell ?


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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Agasthi » 17 Mar 2019 15:39

Check out the numerous indian made autos in Jalalabad compared to other cities in Afghanistan. Looks like out aid was quite targeted and must have went in creating tremendous number of assets on that porous border. No wonder our intelligence on Balakot was 0.0009m CEP!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0--c-d9J2OE

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby nam » 17 Mar 2019 15:49

Hardly any women on the streets!

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 20 Mar 2019 08:26

https://www.wionews.com/india-news/abdu ... tan-204173

Remember those 7 Indian engineers abducted last May? One of them has returned. He should have some info on the others.


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