Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016
Posted: 10 Sep 2021 23:10
Consortium of Indian Defence Websites
https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/
shyamd wrote:Some confirmation today of what is being considered...shyamd wrote: - My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.
Troops of Moscow-led security bloc may be sent to Tajikistan — Belarus’ Security CouncilThis opinion was expressed by chief of Belarus’ Security Council Alexander Volfovich in an article published in the SB. Belarus Today newspaper on Thursday.
He emphasized that the events in Afghanistan may lead to an increase in transnational challenges and threats. "The further escalation and the unpredictability of the situation do not exclude, among others, making a decision to deploy the military contingents of the Organization’s member states on the territory of Tajikistan in order to protect the Tajik-Afghan border as part of the Rapid Deployment Collective Forces of the Central Asian Region and the CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Forces," he noted.
According to the official, it is necessary to "undertake additional efforts on bolstering diplomatic and military-political relations within the framework of the Union State, the CSTO, the SCO, as well as in a bilateral format with other foreign partners."
Iran is expected to join the SCO in the formal meeting on 15-16 Sept.Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 80229?s=20 ---> Iran, Russia and India will hold a joint conference on the significance of a corridor between Nhava Sheva Port in India, Chabahar and Anzali ports in Iran and the Russian port of Astrakhan: Senior Iranian official.
Part of the discussion would certainly be a pitch from the ISI to Russia and Tajikistan that Pakistan guarantees that there will be no Taliban or other extremist group spillover into Central Asia but in return Russia and Tajikistan should guarantee that foreign forces i.e. Indian or other forces cannot use these Central Asian countries as bases to launch attacks on Afghanistan i.e. Pakistan is trying to make a separate peace with Russia and the Central Asian states. Also quite remarkable how quickly Qatar and Turkey have been pushed out of the power equation in terms of the reality of who has influence on the ground in Afghanistan. Qatar will henceforth be needed only for the cash that they can provide but even there Pakistan is likely counting on China as a backup.shyamd wrote:
Intelligence chiefs of Pak, China, Russia, Iran, and other countries hold talks on AfghanistanIntelligence chiefs of Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met in Islamabad to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.
The discussion is being held by Pakistan's director-general of Inter-Services Intelligence Lt. General Faiz Hameed, according to reports.
India shouldn’t be desperate to recognise Taliban unless they give us deal on terrorUltimately governments engage governments. First you have to decide whether this is a legitimate government. Can terrorism lead to legitimate governments? Are we there for giving terrorism legitimacy? That this is a legitimate means of acquiring power. Just because we want to deal with you? And we want to deal with you for what? What is it that Afghanistan will give us that I must be desperate to deal with them? There may be a possibility of threat, but that does not mean I should be recognising the Taliban. They have said they are going to defend all Muslims everywhere, including Kashmir. So why should I deal with them,” Sood said.
via@Chellaney ·11 SepAfghan Air Force pilots and their families, who fled to Uzbekistan, are being transferred to Doha this weekend.
But will Biden agree to the transfer of 46 aircraft from Uzbekistan to Taliban, as demanded by Taliban?
If he does, his complicity with Taliban will be out in the open.
Cyrano wrote:Gen Bakshi in his inemitable style. Note the pakis comment bombing from pure donkey farms below the video !
How would one know if the sodomy was indeed not voluntary and consensual? The curious case of Bulbuddin comes to mind, from the Super Powa city of Krachi.surinder wrote:Cyrano wrote:Gen Bakshi in his inemitable style. Note the pakis comment bombing from pure donkey farms below the video !
The revelations in this video are sensational: Mullah Baradar was sodomized in the prison. He would hold that against the TSP.
What is that article / statement by some Clark is he referring to (at around time stamp of 15-20 min)?
I find it hard to believe not only because the logistics of such a operation will be very difficult but also if IAF did bomb paki/taliban positions, the western media and the pakis would have gone to town complaining about "India destabilizing Afghanistan". The other angle to remember is US wouldn't want India to upset the taliban atleast not until they have fully evacuated remaining people out of Kabul.kit wrote:So the back story behind the CIA , MI6 chiefs and Russian NSA making a beeline to India !.. the real story behind the headlines and the *shadowy Superpower* (one who is not to be named ) flexing its muscles
NB : And also why Russia is now singing a different song
So sometime past
https://espionage.substack.com/p/the-panjshir-protocol
Would the pakis complain ? ..That would be like confirming to the entire world they are behind the whole show in AF !! India played its card right knowing well that the Pakis would never in their right mind accept their losses. Geopolitics is all a big chess board , knowing when to strike when they least expect it !Ambar wrote:I find it hard to believe not only because the logistics of such a operation will be very difficult but also if IAF did bomb paki/taliban positions, the western media and the pakis would have gone to town complaining about "India destabilizing Afghanistan". The other angle to remember is US wouldn't want India to upset the taliban atleast not until they have fully evacuated remaining people out of Kabul.kit wrote:So the back story behind the CIA , MI6 chiefs and Russian NSA making a beeline to India !.. the real story behind the headlines and the *shadowy Superpower* (one who is not to be named ) flexing its muscles
NB : And also why Russia is now singing a different song
So sometime past
https://espionage.substack.com/p/the-panjshir-protocol
Such methods are used by Intelligence agencies to keep tab on hard core terrorist it was perfected by KGB and was ver successful. This allows subject to be blackmailed at any time. Salamsurinder wrote:Cyrano wrote:Gen Bakshi in his inemitable style. Note the pakis comment bombing from pure donkey farms below the video !
The revelations in this video are sensational: Mullah Baradar was sodomized in the prison. He would hold that against the TSP.
What is that article / statement by some Clark is he referring to (at around time stamp of 15-20 min)?
sooperpowers tend to have very long memories.Cyrano wrote:Why isn't the OIC not doing anything to support people of its Ummah I wonder. May be because they can better recognise a snake when they see it and don't want to feed it ?
@ANI.1h
We're deeply engaged with India across the board. With regard to any specifics about over the horizon capabilities & plans we put in place, it'll continue to be put in place: US Secy of State on 'if US has reached out to India as possible staging area for over the horizon forces'
Today - Sec State Blinken response at a congressional hearing on Afg, as reported in TOI:Y I Patel wrote:
...
So something major is cooking. My guess:
America badly needs “over the horizon” capability to monitor developments if AfPak. Tajikistan bases can be an excellent launching pad, and India an operator acceptable to both US and Russia. Not to mention a long standing friend of Tajiks and acceptable to Iran under current circumstances.
...
Can you or someone please explain to this mango Abdul what this over the horizon capability means and how India can provide it? Can India conduct strikes flying over GB? Or do they hope for basing facilities in places like leh and Srinagar to conduct strikes via GB, and PoK?Y I Patel wrote:Today - Sec State Blinken response at a congressional hearing on Afg, as reported in TOI:Y I Patel wrote: So something major is cooking. My guess:
America badly needs “over the horizon” capability to monitor developments if AfPak. Tajikistan bases can be an excellent launching pad, and India an operator acceptable to both US and Russia. Not to mention a long standing friend of Tajiks and acceptable to Iran under current circumstances.
...
US in touch with India regarding 'over-the-horizon' support
Added later - Chetak you beat me to it!
We can't offer anything practical in `over the horizon' military support. Drones based in India do not have the range to reach and loiter in Afghanistan. Besides Pak will not allow their airspace to be used for that. Violating their airspace to carry out a strike is an act of war. Do we want that, when no other country is willing to take that risk ? We might do it in Balakot as a one off, but not to knock off some unwashed Abduls in a tent in Afghanistan - which US can also do from a Carrier, or long range bomber.Cain Marko wrote:Can you or someone please explain to this mango Abdul what this over the horizon capability means and how India can provide it? Can India conduct strikes flying over GB? Or do they hope for basing facilities in places like leh and Srinagar to conduct strikes via GB, and PoK?Y I Patel wrote:
Today - Sec State Blinken response at a congressional hearing on Afg, as reported in TOI:
US in touch with India regarding 'over-the-horizon' support
Added later - Chetak you beat me to it!
shyamd wrote: I think consensus within current TSPA establishment is they regret recognising the previous Taleban govt without support of international powers - bad PR and guilt by association. Especially that Taleban was not inclusive last time - this created its own instability. This time TSPA want there to be inclusive govt (with TSPA at the top to veto anything big .... like GOI involvement)
TSPA has outlined 2 core national interest:
1. Vision for future of Afghanistan (particularly the Durand Line border)
2. Role of India in that region
Previous Afghan govts failed on both counts. Right from the start Afghan govt told then senior TSPA officers that they don't recognise durand line.
Also the US was setting up ANDF ORBAT to focus on Pakistan(!).
Taleban takeover of Afghanistan was a necessity in their eyes. But there is no guarantee that they can control Taleban indefinitely.... Question is what is Taleban position on points 1 and 2 above.
TSPA expectation is that instability in places like FATA, Baluchistan and other places will reduce once Taleb take over is complete
shyamd wrote:
Assessment of Security Situation post Kabul takeover
TSPA priority
- TSPA support Taleban priority firstly will be to consolidate, secure and prevent any forces that can launch a counter coup. Apparently Kabul is not completely secure and the Taleban are still continuing operations.
- Negotiations are taking place between Taleban and forces that are capable of resisting thus the general amnesty for former Afghan govt officials (to complete the coup which means the Taleban/TSPA are still worried about resistance forces)
- The other issues is that TSPA know that there are a lot of groups that are not under direct C2 of TSPA - these will need to be dealt with as well eventually
- Consensus for major powers is that as long as Taleban is truly 'inclusive' then pressure will be taken off Taleban - I believe funds of the Afghan govt have been frozen or about to be frozen
- ISI backed troops such as LeT and JeM are playing a significant role. They have two roles - keep control of Taleban gangs going lose/off the chain and prevent forces that can launch a counter coup.
GOI moves
- First priority is securing all Indian nationals, diplomats and other interests of the Sikh/Hindu community. Majority of the work was completed in 48 hours from the green light given by GOI leaders.
- The next will be to re-establish connections with key players (some of whom are in Delhi) and others in central asian states.
- GOI have a choice. Either support those ready to launch a counter coup and make the point that Taleban hold is weak/vulnerable or move to a long term strategy which is to be recon/surveillance/intel focused.
With only around 9% of indian population vaccinated GOI's primary focus is to get this fixed.
Expectation is that we'll be back to stadium murders soon.
Apparently GOI - Taleban meeting was reported in arab press (the one that MEA denied that took place). Taleban said they welcome Indian investments in infra & education as these are for the benefit of all afghans. They also said the Taliban pledged to remain neutral in the India-Pakistan conflict, especially with regard to Kashmir, and affirmed that it has its own future policy on Pakistan.
They have also pledged not to interfere in Uyghur issues in china.
shyamd wrote: Be careful....maybe ISI want us to think that. From speaking to people I'm getting the sense all dirty business (terror training) will be shipped of to Afghanistan from places like Mansehra and PoK. TSP will follow the international community publicly...i.e. if the powers recognise, they will recognise... if they don't then TSP won't.
The impact will be TSPA will come out of FATF and look clean... they'll say all terror planning/training is happening from "ungoverned places".
Iran has close ties with many in Talebs but they aren't trusted.
UAE has approached Turkey for alliance on Afghan file.
Latest summary is:
- TSPA has sent feelers to London and DC on who may recognise the taleban govt. TSPA want to resolve Afg govt issue quickly because there is concern about refugee inflows
- KSA via former intel director Turki al Faisal is re-establishing contacts with Taleban. This is brokered via ISI. Meetings have been held with Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah omar's son) and other seniors. KSA view is better to have a taleb govt who will be more sympathetic vs Iran.
- I'm reminded that Taleban is a coalition of groups that range from anti TSPA, drug gangs, extremists, nationalists, Pro-Pakhtun ethnic groups, pro -TSP backed terror groups like Haqqani Network, former Afg govt officials... PLA is backing one faction, Iran another - particularly those in border districts with Iran... Russia also involved...(rumour has it ISKP was getting $$ from Russians...)... Sorting out and agreeing powersharing between these groups is proving a little difficult. Each person has earned their seat on table... and each country is having their rep on the table via shura council (incl. Iran)..
- Taleban are being asked to repay debts to these nation states like Russia, Iran, TSP, China who supported them over the years.
- UAE cooperating with Turkey/Qatar alliance on Afghanistan...but it's early days.
- Threat of counter coup has largely reduced..
shyamd wrote: Qatar has been shocked by how different the 'on ground' situation is compared to the promises made in Doha. Qatar, US and others in the region were promised a 'transitional' govt and preparations were seriously underway (hence why the ANA was asked to go slow or withdraw and their C2 had collapsed). The talib mil commanders on the ground ignored all of this and carried on incl. entering Kabul despite all promises by the Talib political leaders not to do so.
It is the military leaders who have the greatest influence over the situation.
Abdul Qayum Zakir (now the defence minister of the Taleb govt. He is the leader of Badri 313 ), Mullah Yaqoob (Mullah Omar's son and leader of the military movement) and Haqqani Network (ISI backed) are the key players in control of the situation. Apparently the military leaders are not cooperating with the political members like Stanekzai and others.
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GOI stating that once a permanent govt is formed towards year end, they will talk to that Talib govt..
Apparently HQN faction is dominating Kabul (Jalalabad - Kabul axis). Mullah Yaqoob has Kandahar area. Not sure if its psyops but they are saying Yaqoob and Haqqani are not cooperating wrt political settlement. Haqqani wants inclusivity with previous govt but Yaqoob not interested.
UK Foreign Min met TSP/A to discuss Afg. UK and US answer is that what was promised in Doha was not delivered and therefore we are far away from recognizing Taleban Govt.
Not sure if it’s true but ISI chief in Kabul today probably to attempt to sort things out
Latest I’m hearing is that UK is speaking to Tajik Govt to see if they can pressure Ahmad Massoud to join a future Govt in Afghanistan. (Which means TSP is promising west that Doha agreement will be implemented)…
shyamd wrote: Latest SitRep
- GOI is implementing a strategy & plan on Afghanistan that was created earlier this year. Plan was in process of being updated during collapse.
- GOI will not recognise the Taleb govt but will maintain links via Doha and Moscow.
- Intel assessment is that TSPA will turn up temperature in LoC and J&K very soon... There is a gradual redeployment of terror groups towards LoC (with Afghans being spotted).
- Meet held between PM, Def min, Home min yesterday. Number of options have been proposed by the Nat Sec (Defence is an element of Nat Sec) team with dealing with Afghan situation... Range of issues are being managed including how GOI will secure it's interest (i.e. make sure Afghan soil is not used for terrorism which is the top priority).
- My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.
- Not discussed but Tajikistan has made their intent clear - they will defend the interests of the Tajik population in Afghanistan. In August, Tajikistan mobilised 100k troops and called up 100k reserves. Russia is supporting these moves and have also joined in drills and are conducting border patrols/exercises. Volunteers have joined up with the National Resistance in Panjshir (with some state sanction)
Also hearing that ANA aircraft from Tajikistan were used to attack Talib positions today in the main road/valley into Panjshir... Sub-valleys are still being held by NRF.
- Russia also calling for inclusive govt similar to UK/US. Ultimately they want someone in charge of Afghanistan and to make sure there is no terror impacting the Central Asian states
- NSA level meeting between India - Russia to be held today to discuss Afghanistan
- Russia will be conducting military drills in all states sharing border with Afghanistan. India may be joining.
Other side matters:
- There is growing feeling in some quarters in Delhi that British intel and ISI were in cahoots on trying to get DC to recognise Taleban..
shyamd wrote:Intel assessment on Afghanistan
- there is a coalition of countries with shared interests (US, UK, India, Russia, central Asian states and China) with respect to terror emanating from Afghanistan that are cooperating.
- meetings taking place more regularly.
- inclusive Govt was always going to be a challenge for the taleban. Lot of intel effort was put in to get the Ghani Govt (and previous Govs) to be inclusive… so ppl were always aware that Taleban will struggle to do this.
- intel guys are very clear that this is a blow to ops… there is no substitute to being on the ground
Delhi is viewing the current situation as a national security crisis.
TSPA are thrilled and celebrating with current situation. Lots of boasting in the region.
I’m told ordinary folks are fearful… many are moving family to Peshawar/TSP or elsewhere. General brain drain.
Couple of points to add. TSPA is shifting resources to Indo-TSP border as well.
The major concern is the economic situation as aid runs out... Taleban will be forced to increase drug production + be at the mercy of financial sponsors... India will face some of the issues.
MEA thinks we should continue infra assistance after 3 months to change Taleban policy....
West is focused on cyber & drones strikes for now.
Intel update on ISI chief visit - 14 Sept 21Update:
The diplomatic position of Russia, India and others is that if Afghan soil is used to launch terror attacks - ISI/TSPA will be held responsible as they now own the problem of Afghanistan. This has been communicated to TSPA via multiple emissaries.
Like GOI, Russia does not trust ISI/TSPA/Taleban et al and will seek to ensure Afghanistan isn't used to push terrorists into the region.
Added later: I am told TSPAF fighter jets, helicopters, drones and SSG were involved in a night time raid of Panjshir valley. The silence of everyone incl. GOI means there is some understanding of some sorts...
Why not? Why not push the envelope a bit and see what happens? What did anybody do post balakote? Nothing. They just accepted the situation. Let's push a bit more, esp if the US is working to this end. Getting access to that airspace can lead to control of it in time. They'll get used to it.Besides Pak will not allow their airspace to be used for that. Violating their airspace to carry out a strike is an act of war. Do we want that, when no other country is willing to take that risk ?.
Forget stability. A taliban governed AF must be kept unstable and keep the bunnies and ISI busy. This is the best way to counter terror.shyamd wrote: ISI chief told his counterparts in Iran, Russia etc that let’s focus on stability of Afghanistan. China won’t invest a cent without stability. There are long standing plans to build pipelines from Kuwait, Iran all the way to China via Afghanistan.
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