And He's Back!!! That Train's Never Late!
And BTW, you are somewhere between Stage 1 and Stage 2 on the Five Stages of Grief (viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7261&p=2253720#p2253720
). Long way to go, but you will see the light at the end of tunnel
KrishnaK wrote:My claim was the plan where LCA MK2 makes up the a bulk of shortfall due to upcoming retirements is risky enough, that imports are warranted. IAF's planning shouldn't be based on it'll replace a bulk of it's upcoming retirements with the LCA MK2. How has that changed?
FWIW....I was not even referring to *YOU* when I used the term risk-assessor-in-chief
. Honestly, you were not even in the picture when I made that statement.
If the press reports in the Tribune and the Times of India are true, the SEF contract just got cancelled. I told you so. The IAF does not want the F-16. You cannot force something down someone's throat. No matter how much the GOI sees the "strategic" value in the F-16, there is no way the IAF will accept the plane. The IAF is the customer, not the GOI. If the GOI even tried to force the plane onto the IAF, the IAF would run circles around them. The MoD Babus would cry hoarse and violations of rules.
The GOI is clueless on the technical aspects of the plane. What would the GOI's talking points be on the technical aspects of the F-16, Block 70? The AESA radar? The GE engine? The weaponry? They have no clue on any of them.
You still believe the F-16 (and the F-18) is the best choice for the Indian Air Force. In fact, you even provided Tellis Saar's statement to back up that assertion. The IAF does not want either plane. But especially the F-16. They will never take that plane. For the Navy, they are more open to the F-18. No matter what you or I believe, the decision rests with the Indian Air Force. The F-16 got rejected on 27 April 2011 and got likely rejected again on 22 Feb 2018.
To the IAF, the risk of adopting the F-16 is greater than the risk of developing Tejas Mk2. If the reports are true, today's decision by the MoD proved that.
A big blow for the H&D of the import lobby.
KrishnaK wrote:If ordering Rafales was so easy it would've been done. That looks to be dependent on the upcoming general elections. Even if Modi did not have to seek another mandate in the utterly unpredictable union elections, just the simple fact that he's under pressure over the Rafale deal, means further orders have become slightly risker. Now the IAF will have to factor into their plans multiple possible course of action - Modi wins another outright majority, wins but no majority, Congress cobbles together a coalition, nobody is anywhere close to a majority reminiscent of our heydays of Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujaral?
Regardless of who wins, the facts of the matter will still hold true. BJP, Congress or whoever will face a stark decision. Make the IAF go through the 11 stage MoD process of acquiring fighters or do a follow on deal of 36 - 44 Rafales. The latter is the logical choice from a time perspective. Otherwise the GOI of the day will have to take the risk of having an IAF that is toothless. No Govt will take that risk, if they expect to win elections.
What will likely happen now is this *NEW* multi-aircraft vendor situation will also get thrown out the window, just like the SEF contract which has likely gone belly up. And then Air HQ will scare the daylights out of the Govt in power, which will force the GOI to go in for a G2G deal for a fighter. It will not be 100+ aircraft though, just a limited purchase of 2 - 3 squadrons (36 - 54 aircraft). At the end of the day, this will be a win-win situation for all parties.
The MoD is not capable of holding a multi-vendor competition. Best solution for the GOI are G2G deals.
KrishnaK wrote:You seem to have a problem with understanding the very simple concept of risk. Understandable, given you actually get incomprehensible concepts like western greco-roman imperium logic.
You seem to have a problem with understanding the very simple concept of time
If the SEF offer from LM was such an amazing deal, why the did the Indian Air Force not jump at the prospect? Regardless of what we say on a forum, they are the decision makers on the technical aspect. Air HQ should have run to the Prime Minister's Office and asked what could they do to speed up this process. But why has the SEF deal gone likely belly up? Two years since SEF contract was announced and there was no movement on this from the GOI - UNTIL TODAY. Why?
KrishnaK wrote:If this were likely, why another RFP ?
If your odds were bleak at F-16 vs Gripen, how successful will your odds be when you have Typhoon, Rafale, F-16, F-18, MiG-35, Gripen E back again? Just a word of caution though, the Rafale will be the clear winner again. The IAF will already be operating the type. Again remember, the IAF is the customer, not the GOI.
Regardless of whatever the Opposition accuses the GOI of - on the Rafale deal - they have to prove it. Oh wait, they can't prove *SQUAT* because the MoD refuses to reveal the breakdown of the deal and neither will Dassault. There is a tiny problem of a binding contract that is coming into play. So they will have to wait for RaGa to win the 2019 elections. Good luck with that one!