Hope this post is not considered as spam...
Having seen lot of discussions regarding projected Squadron Strength of Indian Air Force, I thought it will be good to tabulate the projections... However, as I started writing them down, it became obvious that the variables are just too many...
So, after much thinking, I prepared a simple Excel Sheet... The format I prepared is as follows:-
A) Input Data:-
I prepared two tables fir input data...
In Table 1, I entered the details of existing 'Old' jets... Old as in, all jets bought before Tejas...
The variables for each type are:-
1) No. of existing squadrons
2) year of retirement commencement and
3) rate of retirement...
In Table 2, I entered details of all New jets to be procured... New as in, all jets bought/to be bought after Tejas...
The variables for each type are:-
1) Year of signing of contract
2) No. of jets ordered
3) Rate of production of the jets
4) No. of jets per squadron
5) Rate of retirement (this input is not necessary for near future)
Sample Input Tables 1 & 2 are as shown below--->
The cells highlighted in Yellow are the variables to be entered... All other values are fixed/filled automatically...
-
Output Data:-
Once the above data is entered, we come to the Output Table... In Ouput Table, we just have to enter the year (any year after 2021) and the squadron composition & numbers of the that particular year is tabulated automatically...
Sample Output Table is as shown below--->
-
Since it is difficult to compare year on year changes with the above Output format, I prepared a modified version of the Excel Sheet... In the modified version, the squadron composition will be automatically filled for any six years you enter...
----
For general analysis and overall view of things, I considered three cases for calculating the variation in squadron numbers which I'm sharing below--->
-
1)
With all currently planned/projected orders... (With MRFA, No Additional Rafale, No ORCA):-
Some Assumptions considered:-
i) Nos. of Tejas Mk2, AMCA and MRFA based on recent news articles which gave numbers 170, 2+5 squadrons and 114 respectively...
ii) For year of signing of Contract, I considered it 2 years after the jet is ready for production to take care of bureaucratic complications... I took 'ready for production' year from Satheesh Reddy sir's recent presentation shared here before AeroIndia...
iii) Tejas Mk1 contract details were entered randomly...
iv) Existing Su30 MKI are only 12 squadrons, 13th will be raised this year or next... 14th may also be raised in future... However, fixed it as 13 squadrons to avoid complicating the sheet even more...
v) MMRCA 1.0 took 5 years from RFP in 2007 to declaring Rafale as winner in 2012... Further, commercial negotiations remained inconclusive... Considering the same timeline for MRFA, assuming RFP to be issued in 2022, Contract signing will be 2028...
vi) Rate of production of future jets is purely my assumption, which I felt is reasonable...
-
2)
Without MRFA, 2 Sqdns Additional Rafale, 4 Sqdns ORCA:-
The 3rd squadron of MRFA and 1st squadron of ORCA will be ready more or less at the sametime...
In ORCA, IAF will get the perfect Desi alternative to the expensive Rafale... So, if MRFA is cancelled and IAF goes for 2 Additional Rafale squadrons and 4 Squadrons of ORCA, the squadron numbers and overall composition will remain same... Also, ORCA can play the role of cheaper mud-mover to AMCA... It can also be used to replace earlier squadrons of Su30s... Additional numbers can be immediately ordered as and when required...
The only downside is that IAF will get an additional type of jet in its fleet... But then, if MRFA deal goes to someone other than Rafale, it will be even worse...
-
3)
Without MRFA, 2 Sqdns Additional Rafale, 4 Additional Sqdns of Tejas Mk2:-
If IAF don't want a new type of Jet, they can simply order Additional Tejas Mk2 apart from 2 additional squadrons of Rafale... After all, Tejas Mk2 is same class as Gripen E/F and F16, two of the contendors of MRFA... If the production rate of Tejas Mk2 is increased from 24 to 32, the timeline will also match the MRFA/ORCA dates:-
----
I hope these tables will give a realistic idea of things as they stand...
My opinions and conclusions based on these tables is as follows:-
1) IAF strength will continue to remain between 31 to 35 for this entire decade. Tejas Mk2 is most crucial to shore up IAF numbers. Once Tejas Mk2 is productionized, the numbers will start going up and continue to increase in next decade to the sanctioned 42 squadrons.
However, I don't think Tejas Mk2 will see a production rate of 32 per year... 24 jets per year would be ideal for the considered timeline and speculated orders... IAF may even restrict it to 16 per year depending on orders & budget...
2) The only reason IAF need MRFA is if they are looking for any specific technologies. Otherwise, they should order 2-3 squadrons of Rafales and order ORCA/ additional Tejas Mk2 to fill up numbers... If creating a new assembly line in private sector is the only aim, they can consider creating one with one of the domestic programs rather than going for an imported new jet...
3) I haven't included CATS and other UAVs in these calculations as the numbers are neither firmed up nor speculated anywhere. But I feel these systems will also play a major role in future.
4) IAF and MOD should start planning for replacement of Su30s after 5-6 years. That will give them full 20 years to plan and replace Su30s, which are due for retirement starting 2045. Replacement may include any one or combinations of the following:-
a) Cleansheet 6th Gen aircraft, probably 30+Tonne Heavy Class jet.
b) 4.5 Gen (probably ORCA)
c) Additional AMCA
d) full-fledged CATS or UAV squadrons