The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
sanjaykumar wrote: ↑02 Aug 2023 00:15
As Chirac said, Africa’s problems are civilsational.
Only he didn’t specify whose civilisation.
Most of Africa is fcked. Didn’t industrialize, political instability, and lack knowledge producing institutions. They will continue to be someone’s btch like Pakis.
After all this world wide hot mess is over and financial reset G20 and some extras will be the driving force for humanity. Everyone else which includes much of Africa, Middle East, af-pak, Latin America and Caribbean will be servicing g20 even more with their land, women, and resources.
sanjaykumar wrote: ↑02 Aug 2023 00:15
As Chirac said, Africa’s problems are civilsational.
Only he didn’t specify whose civilisation.
Most of Africa is fcked. Didn’t industrialize, political instability, and lack knowledge producing institutions. They will continue to be someone’s btch like Pakis.
After all this world wide hot mess is over and financial reset G20 and some extras will be the driving force for humanity. Everyone else which includes much of Africa, Middle East, af-pak, Latin America and Caribbean will be servicing g20 even more with their land, women, and resources.
Let's not generalize. A large portion of ex-French Africa is thinly populated. They just don't have critical mass to make it big, so being under the French/CFA umbrella is a good thing for their identity, stability and access to the world.
Now there are parts of Africa who are fscked. Nigeria is one hot mess. South Africa unfortunately is traumatized beyond the point of recovery - although on paper it still has good parts it's just a matter of time. Ethiopia is on an upward trajectory. Kenya/Uganda/Tanzania are improving, Rwanda is doing well recently. DRCongo is scary due to its size and projected population, and the fact that this population will lead to deforestation of some of the thickest jungles in the world.
Knowledge is overrated; it is a lifeline to us in Asia because we are resource deprived. Africa is about resources which they have in plenty. Knowledge will follow in places where there is a demand. What they need (and what anyone needs) is leaders with vision and integrity, and a population & system which makes it happen.
Two things, one has to ask why African leaders are so low down the priority list for the human rights industry? Hint, why was Saudi Arabia indulged in the hallowed pages of the NYT WP BBC etc?
Africans are not wild men. Drop the racism. If you take the trouble to engage them, they can be quite intelligent and articulate. Not all of course. But they will sense if you are thinking ‘monkey’. You will see what you want to see.
RoyG wrote: ↑02 Aug 2023 01:42
Most of Africa is fcked. Didn’t industrialize, political instability, and lack knowledge producing institutions. They will continue to be someone’s btch like Pakis.
After all this world wide hot mess is over and financial reset G20 and some extras will be the driving force for humanity. Everyone else which includes much of Africa, Middle East, af-pak, Latin America and Caribbean will be servicing g20 even more with their land, women, and resources.
Let's not generalize. A large portion of ex-French Africa is thinly populated. They just don't have critical mass to make it big, so being under the French/CFA umbrella is a good thing for their identity, stability and access to the world.
Now there are parts of Africa who are fscked. Nigeria is one hot mess. South Africa unfortunately is traumatized beyond the point of recovery - although on paper it still has good parts it's just a matter of time. Ethiopia is on an upward trajectory. Kenya/Uganda/Tanzania are improving, Rwanda is doing well recently. DRCongo is scary due to its size and projected population, and the fact that this population will lead to deforestation of some of the thickest jungles in the world.
Knowledge is overrated; it is a lifeline to us in Asia because we are resource deprived. Africa is about resources which they have in plenty. Knowledge will follow in places where there is a demand. What they need (and what anyone needs) is leaders with vision and integrity, and a population & system which makes it happen.
I was born in Africa (Kenya) and lived there for the first seventeen years of my life. I spoke Swahili well enough to understans most of the speeches made by the African politicians before and after Independence. Basically they were saying that the foreigners (Europeans and Asians) were keeping Africans poor by keeping them out of the economy. Asians were, of course, people from the Indian subcontinent. I only ever met two Chinese in Kenya and they were married to Indian women. There was one Chinese family in Nairobi (from Taiwan) and the children were at the same school as me.
The problem in Kenya was tribalism; the Africans were divided themselves. It was claimed (in colonial times) that there were 240 different tribes, though some were related. More recently, Uhuru Kenyatta the ex President, stated that there were 40 tribes and suggested that Asians should be classed as just another tribe. The different tribes distrusted each other. The Kikuyu (about 25%) were particularly distrusted by the smaller tribes. Obama's father was from the Luo tribe (about 10%) and came from the western edge of Kenya near the edge of Lake Nyanza (Victoria) and Uganda. Whoever was in power favoured his own tribe and the political parties were also split on tribal lines. At independence KANU was dominated by Kikuyu and related tribes and KADU by Luo and supporting tribes from western Kenya and the Coast. At school, circa 1966, my brother stood for election as Head Student; the headmaster (an American) took him aside and persuaded him to stand down. There were two other candidates, a Kikuyu and a boy from a smaller tribe and my brother would have got all the votes from the smaller tribes. It was a boarding school, and the student body was fairly representative of the general population; there were only a handful of Asian boys and about five whites at the school.
The other problem in Africa was the extremely high birth rate of the African population. The politicians used to say that birth control was a colonial ploy to disempower the Africans. At independence the population of Kenya was stated a seven and half million, probably an undercount to suit colonial policy. Today it is some 50 million - seven times growth in sixty years (independence 12th Dec 1963)
But what does French President Emmanuel Macron want from India and its Prime Minister? The answer lies in the concept of "strategic autonomy," a principle that both nations hold dear. Strategic autonomy refers to the ability to make decisions independent of external pressure, a concept that has been central to the foreign policies of both France and India. Macron's engagement with Modi and India is a reflection of this principle.
Maron is a globalist investment banker elitist and not a de Gaulle or Modi type nationalist, nor is he a populist with grassroots level understanding of France. I can't find any concrete evidence of Macron acting towards strategic autonomy beyond lip service statements.
France must really hurry to get close to India else it will be destroyed by the US like they have done with Germany.
RoyG wrote: ↑02 Aug 2023 01:42
Most of Africa is fcked. Didn’t industrialize, political instability, and lack knowledge producing institutions. They will continue to be someone’s btch like Pakis.
After all this world wide hot mess is over and financial reset G20 and some extras will be the driving force for humanity. Everyone else which includes much of Africa, Middle East, af-pak, Latin America and Caribbean will be servicing g20 even more with their land, women, and resources.
Let's not generalize. A large portion of ex-French Africa is thinly populated. They just don't have critical mass to make it big, so being under the French/CFA umbrella is a good thing for their identity, stability and access to the world.
Now there are parts of Africa who are fscked. Nigeria is one hot mess. South Africa unfortunately is traumatized beyond the point of recovery - although on paper it still has good parts it's just a matter of time. Ethiopia is on an upward trajectory. Kenya/Uganda/Tanzania are improving, Rwanda is doing well recently. DRCongo is scary due to its size and projected population, and the fact that this population will lead to deforestation of some of the thickest jungles in the world.
Knowledge is overrated; it is a lifeline to us in Asia because we are resource deprived. Africa is about resources which they have in plenty. Knowledge will follow in places where there is a demand. What they need (and what anyone needs) is leaders with vision and integrity, and a population & system which makes it happen.
Most of Africa is fcked is not a generalization. It’s a fact. You only supported my assertion that most of the African landmass will continue to be a colony of someone else. Knowledge is everything and resources are finite. States that don’t get it, get hit. Saudis which are oil rich are just realizing this.
While speaking about Africa, its worthwhile to consider this perspective from Thomas Sowell.
What France and other colonisers have done is establish tight control on Africa's interactions with the outside world. Because intra African trade has severe hurdles as Sowell explains, this works very well century after century. Islam influenced Africa has no interest in development and only pushes societies backwards to maintain its grip.
They way out is for Africa to increase trade with Asia. At least on the eastern coast on the Indian Ocean. After BIMSTEC, India's next mandala is Eastern Africa. The world has largely ignored Madagascar, except some feeble interest by the French. With Madagascar and Comoros islands, there will be interesting possibilities for India and France to play an active role in IOR.
Else the US will bring NATO into Indo Pacific for real.
I hope France ditches the NATO, EU & US yoke and adopts an independent foreign policy - this is essential to realise the full potential of Indo-French partnerships.
We should go in for joint engine development with France, and not overly rely on US.
Our relations with US, Canada, and UK are increasingly becoming seasonal.
When Lefties come to power in any of these countries, they and their vote banks tend to inflict more harassment on India.
Otherwise, when their Lefties are not in power, we can look forward to more reasonable relations.
We should plan around this seasonality. When their Lefties come to power, then we can send less students their way, instructing banks not to support student loans to those countries. We can sign less deals with those countries and take a more head-butting approach. When their Lefties are out of power, then we can have more cordial relations, allow banks to support student loans for studies in those countries, do more business deals, etc.
Vayutuvan wrote: ↑23 Dec 2023 00:17
Sandman ji, one problem is that banks will do what is good for their bottom line. Why would they listen to GoI, especially the private banks.
They will once they find out that GoI will not enforce the terms of the loan.
Cyrano wrote: ↑23 Dec 2023 11:11
good move by India to liberate European countries from servitude of the US. France is the perfect wedge, I only hope Macron is smart enough to see it.
He is not. He is throwing everything including the kitchen sink into supporting Ukraine instead of knowing when to cut losses and move on.
Cyrano wrote: ↑23 Dec 2023 11:11
good move by India to liberate European countries from servitude of the US. France is the perfect wedge, I only hope Macron is smart enough to see it.
Cyrano ji,
france has never been a wedge but they have reveled in being the outlier, the bastion against the ingress of the amrikis influence and their "inferior" culture
they are like the proverbial coconuts, but with a continental twist: fiercely french on the outside but filled with amriki derived tech on the inside...
twice in one century, their highly cultured royal french nuts have been pulled out of the german fires by people who were most definitely not french in origin but from the lesser and avowedly inferior cultures, and they won't live that down so easily
And they still have vestiges of the colonial mindset. Look at the French territories and how they still demand reparations from the former African colonies. I wouldn't go too far to trust the Frenchies, only their motivation and greed for money.
Cyrano wrote: ↑03 Aug 2023 02:51
Maron is a globalist investment banker elitist and not a de Gaulle or Modi type nationalist, nor is he a populist with grassroots level understanding of France. I can't find any concrete evidence of Macron acting towards strategic autonomy beyond lip service statements.
France must really hurry to get close to India else it will be destroyed by the US like they have done with Germany.
I'm late to this thread. Cyrano, what do you think the foreign policy of a (hypothetical) President Marine le Pen would be? I know she has isolationist tendencies, but France cannot afford to isolate itself from the world -- actually no European nation can.
hgupta wrote: ↑23 Dec 2023 01:16
They will once they find out that GoI will not enforce the terms of the loan.
Is that even constitutional? Maybe Govt can arm-twist nationalized banks. Since you are lawyer, you would know the answer.
Vayutuvanji, aren’t nationalised banks mandated to follow RBI and MoF diktats? If RBI issues a circular saying that all student loans issued to students going to certain institutions must be accounted the same manner as a NPA due to high risk of default, won’t they be bound to do that? What bank would take on these NPA like assets on its register? So not a direct ban but one for practical purposes….
Students can go to private banks which will promptly jack the rates up…
Srimant @Tanaji, good point. But RBI doesn’t have to listen to govt diktats, AFAIK. Wasn’t that the bone of contention between RRajan and GOI soon after 2014 change in Govt.? IANAL.
Following up on the above post (probably should go into Banking, Economy, or policy thread - I can't find one).
If the private bankls increase the rates, Nationalized banks too can increase the rates, in fact just tad above private bank rates, to rates where the risk of NPAs (in an enseble sense) are taken out.
I can think of a couple of mechanisms that make students/parents choose wisely, both for themselves and for Bharat. They are not temporary fixes like the one suggested by @hgupta esq.
Think of differentiated rates which is a function of grades in UG/PG, ranking of the institution graduating from, ranking of the accepting foriegn institute, STEM or not, demand in that sector both in the host country and India, and so on. Also loans should be seprated into short term and long term. Short term loans are useful for those kids who got accepted with a TAship/RAship/GRAship who need money for travel to the host country and be able to pay rental deposits and can tide over for a month or two. After that they shoudl start paying back from their scholarship money. Can be very small amounts which are spread over the study period.
That is still short term fix only. Long term fix is increase the supply of good higher education in Bharat itself in addition to demand for graduates in both private sector and (now decreasing) public sector.
hgupta wrote: ↑23 Dec 2023 01:16
They will once they find out that GoI will not enforce the terms of the loan.
Is that even constitutional? Maybe Govt can arm-twist nationalized banks. Since you are lawyer, you would know the answer.
Yes they can do that because the GOI is not a party to the loan. It’s just that they are being asked to enforce the loan. They can always decline to. So the banks would have zero incentives to give out such risky loans when the borrowers know that they can default on the loans without fear of GOI enforcing the loans.
Cyrano wrote: ↑03 Aug 2023 02:51
Maron is a globalist investment banker elitist and not a de Gaulle or Modi type nationalist, nor is he a populist with grassroots level understanding of France. I can't find any concrete evidence of Macron acting towards strategic autonomy beyond lip service statements.
France must really hurry to get close to India else it will be destroyed by the US like they have done with Germany.
I'm late to this thread. Cyrano, what do you think the foreign policy of a (hypothetical) President Marine le Pen would be? I know she has isolationist tendencies, but France cannot afford to isolate itself from the world -- actually no European nation can.
Marine le Pen is a straw woman with an alcohol problem. Riding on her father's hard work but even he was a holocaust denier and held certain racist views.
Marine is simply no match for a Putin or Modi.
Macron has destroyed french diplomatic corps, his Africa strategy is in tatters, military underfunded for decades now with empty arsenals. Except few défense companies french mfg has weakened for decades.
Marine cannot deal with all that and go against euro atlantists to fight EU and NATO.
