West Asia News and Discussions

[drnayar]

...
who cares what the turkey wants.

"The shipping and railway lines will pass through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, then reach to Greece and Europe.

and that is their problem.

Understood that it's strategically important to have multiple routes, but will the route not be more costly as compared to the Suez route?

I have seen discussion from experts working in the trans-national logistics industry and they mention issues like multi-loading/offloading, trains capacity vs ship capacity etc

The consensus is that SA and others will have to give significant subsidies to make the end cost of goods to be competitive to the one via the Suez.

For SA this project fits right into Salman's vision of connectivity
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-g20- ... 1001457425

[Manish_P]

..
For SA this project fits right into Salman's vision of connectivity
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-g20- ... 1001457425

Yes sir. Understood that point. For SA it will be important to find alternate sources of income once the oil runs out in a few decades (?) and they will have only the Haj.

Collecting rent / toll charges is what this will help with

Wanted to understand how will they help bring down the pricing as the logistics costs for this mode will be costlier than the suez route.
(how will indian goods be competitive as compared to chinese which will come via the BRI-CPEC route)

[Aditya_V]

Cut China off from Aussie Coal, raw materials and African Raw materials and Chinese manufacturing coats spiral up.

Rail freight is pretty cheap, that land costs are pretty less, Suez is way beyond capacity. If Indian ports, Train logistics along with building the Arabian Rail network, it will be very useful.

Also these Super container carriers are A 380s, they can use only limited ports and take time to get full sold out.

This model will be much more flexible, as long as trains, ports, cranes, related software infrastructure is well integrated, this will be very efficient.

In the long run Baluchistan needs to be independent and large % population in Sindh and west Punjab along with Allies in India need to be death with for the good of humanity

[Cyrano]

If the world has to find a new era of prosperity, this time driven by Asian economies, we will need multiple redundant trade routes with less choke points. Regimes think immediate term, countries short term, nations medium term, civilizations long term.

[ricky_v]

https://archive.is/iHjPc

Turkey is in “intensive negotiations” over its alternative to the India-Middle East trade corridor plan that was agreed at this month’s G20 summit, as the country seeks to bolster its historic role as a transport route for goods moving from Asia to Europe.
Ankara has pushed back against the proposed India-Middle East route that would transport goods from the subcontinent through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel to European markets. The mooted corridor, backed by the US and EU as they attempt to repel China’s growing influence, would completely bypass Turkey.

Ankara has instead touted an alternative called the Iraq Development Road initiative, with Fidan insisting “intensive negotiations” were under way with Iraq, Qatar and the UAE about a project that would be forged “within the next few months”.

The proposed $17bn route would take goods from the Grand Faw port in oil-rich southern Iraq through 10 Iraqi provinces and into Turkey, according to diagrams released by the Baghdad government.
The plan would rely on 1,200km of high-speed rail and a parallel road network. The scheme has three phases, with the first aiming for completion in 2028 and the last in 2050.
Analysts, however, say there are concerns over the feasibility of the Development Road project on financial and security grounds.
“Turkey lacks the financing to realise the full scope of the project, and seems to be counting on UAE and Qatari support to build the proposed infrastructure,” said Emre Peker, Europe director at the Eurasia Group think-tank. “For that to happen, the Gulf states would need to be convinced of good returns on investment — something that is not imminently evident with the [Development Road] project.”

[ramana]

Erdogan is playing the spoiler just like the Ottomans did in the mid-1400s leading to the sea route.

Analysts, however, say there are concerns over the feasibility of the Development Road project on financial and security grounds.
“Turkey lacks the financing to realise the full scope of the project, and seems to be counting on UAE and Qatari support to build the proposed infrastructure,” said Emre Peker, Europe director at the Eurasia Group think-tank. “For that to happen, the Gulf states would need to be convinced of good returns on investment — something that is not imminently evident with the [Development Road] project.”

UAE is part of IMEC. And Qatar is the bad boy of the Gulf.
And if the goal is to move goods from India, he has gone out of his way to have overall bad relations with India.

[ramana]

...
who cares what the turkey wants.

"The shipping and railway lines will pass through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, then reach to Greece and Europe.

and that is their problem.

Understood that it's strategically important to have multiple routes, but will the route not be more costly as compared to the Suez route?

I have seen discussion from experts working in the trans-national logistics industry and they mention issues like multi-loading/offloading, trains capacity vs ship capacity etc

The consensus is that SA and others will have to give significant subsidies to make the end cost of goods to be competitive to the one via the Suez.

Firstly refer to Saudi Arabia as KSA. SA is South Africa.
And as for experts, many didn't even envision that a corridor would come up. And what do they know about IMEC to make such statements?
In my view, they are trying to rationalize not seeing this IMEC proposal.
From Haifa, there will be branches to Egypt and onto the rail corridor to Nigeria. Nigeria by 2050 will be the second most populous country.
And from Haifa there will be another sea route to Marseille.

IMEC will be the transportation corridor for the 21st Century.
Chetak wasn't too pleased when I said that even China would ship to Mundra port and use this IMEC eventually.
And to put in historical context, IMEC is an updated Petra Spice Route from India to Europe via Arabia.

[SivaR]

Turkey has got few cards it can play.
1. Refugee flow: They always played this card with Europe and Europe is shit scared of this, and gives concessions to Turkey, to calm it. They always used their strategic location, sitting on the edge of an unstable region to their advantage, this time also Europe will do the same.
2. Reviving the brotherhood, like ISIS. But this time, USA is involved in this project, hence it will be controlled.
3. Pakistan card: They may ask its partner Pakistan to give troubles to India, but Pakistan is already in dire situation.
Net - Net, they will use this new development to derive more concession from Europe, there wont be any direct impact on the IMEC project.

[uddu]

Some counter point to the Turkish offer
1) If the ships have to move around UAE and go all up towards Iraq, the closest Saudi port is Dammam Port. Why not utilize that and connect it with the same line that starts from UAE.

2) Even if Iraq is considered, why the route should go all the way to Turkey and cover the maximum land route, when ocean is closer through Syria or even Jordan and Israel.
3)Also if Turkish land route is considered, what benefit it will give compared to the same distance through Saudi Arabia. Add to that ship need to traverse more along the straights all the way towards Iraq.
Taking into consideration, Geopolitics and finding the safest route, always good to avoid Turkey in all aspects. Probably add Iraq and Oman also the same route going through Saudi Arabia once this start to function.

[NRao]

The Iraq-Turkey route is politically unstable and involved nations do not have financial heft.

The route Bharat has selected has nations that will support the "corridor" politically and economically. Outside of the sea legs, the rest of the corridor is very stable.

[Pratyush]

This corridor is very intriguing.

It makes all of western sea ports capable of serving it. Not just ports in Maharashtra and Gujarat.

Secondly, with the resolution of the Syrian civil war. The corridor can increase its bandwidth by having a branch line to Syria as well.

Turkey can be left out to rot.

[Manish_P]

..
Firstly refer to Saudi Arabia as KSA. SA is South Africa.

Noted. Request admin help to edit post, as am unable to do so..

And as for experts, many didn't even envision that a corridor would come up. And what do they know about IMEC to make such statements?
In my view, they are trying to rationalize not seeing this IMEC proposal.

If these were general purpose 'experts' i would have thought so as well. But these are from the logistics and supply chain industry.
And yes they will be partial towards the direct costs, margins etc.

From Haifa, there will be branches to Egypt and onto the rail corridor to Nigeria. Nigeria by 2050 will be the second most populous country.
And from Haifa there will be another sea route to Marseille.

Noted about the rail corridor to Nigeria. Will it pass through Sudan (Libya is more riskier, unless it settles down)
Also noted about Haifa to the various ports of Europe Marseille/Valencia/Trieste... - all bypassing Turkiye!

IMEC will be the transportation corridor for the 21st Century.
Chetak wasn't too pleased when I said that even China would ship to Mundra port and use this IMEC eventually.
And to put in historical context, IMEC is an updated Petra Spice Route from India to Europe via Arabia.

Fascinating. Time passes, kingdoms rise and fall, the routes remain...

[drnayar]

The Iraq-Turkey route is politically unstable and involved nations do not have financial heft.

The route Bharat has selected has nations that will support the "corridor" politically and economically. Outside of the sea legs, the rest of the corridor is very stable.

indeed Erdo can go and take a hike

[Aditya_V]

Why can't Erdogan invite 10 cr Pakis qnd Afghans o come and build his connectivity corridor

[ricky_v]

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/20 ... ring-china

According to the memorandum of understanding signed on Sept. 9 by the European Union, France, Germany, India, Italy, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the United States, the IMEC will include a multimodal rail channel employing both railway tracks and shipping routes over a distance of 5,000 kilometers (3,106 miles). In tandem, a network of undersea electrical cables and green energy pipelines will be laid between India and Greece.

Calling it “much more than just a railway or a cable,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has described the new corridor as “a green and digital bridge across continents and civilizations.”

First, IMEC consolidates India’s geoeconomic outreach to the Middle East by cutting costs, as shipping containers can reach from the port in Mumbai to Dubai and onward to the port in Haifa in 40% less time. Comprising two separate corridors, the eastern end of the IMEC connects India to the Arabian Gulf while the northern side connects the Gulf to Europe.

As Beijing has been running Greece's Port of Piraeus and maintains a presence at the Haifa port, the new corridor can function in parallel with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Finally, since the IMEC fits in with Riyadh’s Saudi Vision 2030 agenda and connects the UAE with a wider global audience, it can become a vital transit hub geopolitically.

For starters, countries like Iran and Turkey have not been included in the trade corridor. At the G20 summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that “there is no corridor without Turkey” as it is an “important production and trade base” and “the most convenient line for traffic from east to west.”

Instead, he suggested another route: the Iraq Development Road project. Egypt and Algeria are also cut off from the northern corridor, while Iran, Iraq, Oman and Yemen cannot benefit from the eastern part.


However, Roberto Neccia, an Italian diplomat formerly posted in Tehran, told Al-Monitor that the IMEC initiative will not affect India’s interest in developing Chabahar Port, as recent developments seemed to suggest.

Neccia noted, “In Iran, it didn’t go unnoticed that countries like Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, all with close ties to Tehran, were not included. On the other hand, the exclusion of Turkey is significant from the point of view of Tehran as it leaves open the possibility … in the future — if and when talks with the United States resume — to link its gas infrastructure to the energy corridors toward Europe, which is an old project, frozen due to the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.”

From an economic point of view, Neccia said the project “fits quite well into the Saudi plan for economic diversification and should not be seen in the context of the old zero-sum regional game, and the same goes for the other GCC countries.”

However, Roberto Neccia, an Italian diplomat formerly posted in Tehran, told Al-Monitor that the IMEC initiative will not affect India’s interest in developing Chabahar Port, as recent developments seemed to suggest.

Neccia noted, “In Iran, it didn’t go unnoticed that countries like Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, all with close ties to Tehran, were not included. On the other hand, the exclusion of Turkey is significant from the point of view of Tehran as it leaves open the possibility … in the future — if and when talks with the United States resume — to link its gas infrastructure to the energy corridors toward Europe, which is an old project, frozen due to the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.”

From an economic point of view, Neccia said the project “fits quite well into the Saudi plan for economic diversification and should not be seen in the context of the old zero-sum regional game, and the same goes for the other GCC countries.”

Ostensibly, the signatories will meet again in November to announce an action plan. An investment of around $17 billion is required and around 100,000 jobs need to be created to complete the scheme.

[Cyrano]

who is paying for this?!

[RoyG]

Most people don't care about these semitic people anymore. All of them including the Jews are bound by a faith system which locks them into perpetual misery. They are prospering as a nation in spite of their faith and not because of it. And our people overly support them on everything when most of them don't give two sh*ts about us. Their god instructed them to massacre cow worshipping pagan peoples. Read about it, you will see...

The world is bigger than these semites which have colonized everyone with their one true god nonsense. Learn from their misfortunes but don't give them anymore of your time. They brought this on themselves for believing in fairy tales.

[ramana]

I think we need a new thread for this.

[Yagnasri]

May be a conflict study threat only discussing conflicts with tactics etc. Nothing more.

[drnayar]

People need to understand war is not fought with just weapons for gods sake !!..This is BRF

[yensoy]

This corridor is very intriguing.
It makes all of western sea ports capable of serving it. Not just ports in Maharashtra and Gujarat.
Secondly, with the resolution of the Syrian civil war. The corridor can increase its bandwidth by having a branch line to Syria as well.
Turkey can be left out to rot.

Why? Let Turkey independently fund and build their corridor. The more ways to move goods the merrier. We don't have anything to lose here if they build their corridor, and can even gain from it. Turkey will cobble funds together with China, and as long as it doesn't distract our project it's just fine. None of these countries needs to be given monopoly status over trade routes, not even our friends of the day.

[ricky_v]

some things of interest in the past couple of weeks leading to the situation

first on 26.09, the first cabinet minister of israel to visit saudia

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/2 ... blic-visit

The Israeli tourism minister has travelled to Saudi Arabia for a United Nations conference, his office said, describing the visit as the first public trip to the country by an Israeli cabinet member.

Haim Katz’s two-day visit to Riyadh comes as Saudi Arabia is pursuing a possible United States-brokered deal that would forge formal bilateral relations with Israel. Katz is leading a delegation as part of a UN World Tourism Organization event.

Also on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia sent its first delegation in three decades to the occupied West Bank to reassure Palestinians that it will defend their cause even as it forges closer ties with Israel.

“The Palestinian matter is a fundamental pillar,” Naif bin Bandar Al Sudairi, who headed the Saudi delegation and is the new ambassador to the Palestinians, said after meeting top Palestinian diplomat Riyad al-Maliki in Ramallah for talks and to present his credentials.

“And it’s certain that the Arab [Peace] Initiative, which was presented by the kingdom in 2002, is a cornerstone of any upcoming deal.”

second, 2 days back, another israeli minister visits saudia

https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/middleea ... r-AA1hIMSV

Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi hailed his country's “blossoming ties” with Saudi Arabia during a visit to Riyadh amid continuing US-brokered negotiations to establish formal relations.

Mr Karhi is the second Israeli official to make a public visit to the kingdom in as many weeks as Israel and Saudi Arabia gradually move towards formally establishing ties.

“We greatly appreciate the tireless efforts of the leaders of Saudi Arabia, and our prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, for nurturing the blossoming ties between our nations,” Mr Karhi told the meeting of the Universal Postal Union, a specialised UN agency intended to encourage international co-operation in the postal sector, in Riyadh.

“As demonstrated by the Abraham Accords, when nations converge on mutual goals, the outcomes can be monumentally transformative,” Mr Karhi added.

Saudi Arabia did not join the US-brokered Abraham Accords, which saw the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco establish formal ties with Israel in 2020.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Fox News that Riyadh was “getting closer” to establishing diplomatic relations with Israel.

this is an interesting challenge for saudia and mbs, recall also the agreement of the i2u2 summit where saudia through its proxy in international relations, the commercial uae, was being courted by the west as something other than a security customer to something of a regional partner, but it also has an agreement with iran and china, but not overtly russia

the players as they currently stand, imo,

saudia+uae - equidistance currently between west and china/iran, fallout of indian side's open support of israel to be seen, more likely would be swept under carpet

syria+egypt - the old leaders against the arab war against israel, both leaders made peace with israel at the time, but still heavy into the palestinian cause, reports of opening front with syria to be confirmed, egypt's armed forces integrity to be tested after the muslim brotherhood rule, both have had some sort of peaceful co-existence with israel in recent years, with the resolution of the sinai peninsula

turkey+qatar - will try to use this opportunity to push muslim brotherhood in rival countries, even try arab springing with fdf to test the cause for the ummah; turkey also brings onboard the current central asian mad dogs, the victors of nagorno-karabakh or astrakhan, azerbaijan, to the table, turkey has been clear-eyed for some time over the revival of the ottoman empire

iran - still trying to push its clerical revolution in the muslim world, patron of hamas, has control + irgc in lebanon and iraq, issues with turkey+qatar block though, one has ability to cause trouble in its northern borders via azerbaijan, the other has the mb

oman - be interesting to see how the rulers align themselves on this one, the previous one was famously aloof and kept his country adrift of such events

somehow the taliban has also thrown their hat in the ring requesting for passage to jerusalem in protection of the palestinians, but currently too far removed to make much of a difference

[Cyrano]

How committed the US is to IMEC will be clear based on how they react to this situation in Israel.

If they let Israel save their H&D (after that colossal intelligence failure) and put everybody in line and back in business - and dissuade any neighbours adventurism then they will end up looking good and back in the seat as the global policeman.

Agree this is a test for Saudi & MBS - they may make some public noises but perhaps that will be it.

The rest of the Ummah matters only if India, France, Germany etc allow it to.

Russia will be watching and sipping vodka.

This could be the ramp down for NATO from Ukraine, and a time out for Turdinder until India lets him think its over only to squeeze his jewels again.

Hamas badly miscalculated with their dastardly acts and plastering horrors all over SM.

[drnayar]

Erdogan's no corridor without Turkey seems to ring through all the current events...

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india ... ink-543750

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday said there could be no proposed India-Middle East trade corridor without Turkey.

“We say that there is no corridor without Turkey."

[ramana]

550 years ago Ottomans also said same thing.
That led to the Age of Exploration.
Erdogan can pound sand.

[ramana]

Cyrano,

Biden forced himself for a US role in IMEC

KSA did not want US anywhere in IMEC.

And KSA wants to evolve the Old Spice route now called IMEC.

[Cyrano]

Yes that's the backdrop. US won't cede it's place so easily. Create unrest to feel the need for US.

Purely happenstance:

BREAKING: US Carrier Strike Group 12 led by the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) passing the Island of Sardinia heading towards Israel.

[NRao]

In the Hamas thread, I had stated that India + Israel will benefit from these sets of conflicts (the latest being the Hamas incursion).

IMO, It is no longer an issue between nations. It s between ideologies, the basic one being what Islam considers Jihad as.

I would suggest we all take the politically incorrect path of Islam being medieval, based on the current set of SM items to expose Islam as such. It is fair. Since it is there.

To ignore it is to bring upon oneself the same treatment in the future - perhaps a few generations down the line.




Turkey is no angel. They are in the same boat as those who disrobed dead female bodies.

[Manish_P]

...The IMEC trade route was conceptualized by Jaishankar as Mumbai to Mediterranean. India spent lot of midnight oil with KSA and UAE and both Israel and Greece. Biden didn't want to be left out and it was with great reluctance both MBs agreed.
Why revive Petra ? That's the real trade route to Europe. Read "Roman Empire in Indian Ocean."

Let me tell you open secret. Mundra? Haifa and the Greek port all will be run by Adani.
KSA and UAE are paying for land bridge with highway and rail track.

Ramana ji, is the bolded part officially confirmed?

That's how it usually is, the countries/entities which want the route construct it out of own money (or by loans) and earn from the traffic/throughput.

And in some cases ask payment (extort) for security.

[Rony]

I am yet to see one Indian action or retaliation for all the shenanigans Qataris are doing against Indians.

Diwali dropped as a holiday for Indian schools across Qatar

Indian schools in Qatar will have a working Diwali on Sunday. Traditionally Diwali has been a holiday for Indian schools but the new notification that was issued by Qatar's education department for the ongoing academic year decided to drop it.

[NRao]

I am yet to see one Indian action or retaliation for all the shenanigans Qataris are doing against Indians.

I do not think India can do much. After all, with a growing population India needs FDI and employment. IF at all it is the Indian population that can do something. Like, take it upon themselves to reduce corruption, take risks, start Al Zajira-type narrative builders, refuse to bend to halal certifications, , etc, to improve the economy and therefore employment.

I think the GoI does have a very good plan, but it will take time to mature. It requires patience.

Qatar employs some 600,000 Indians. Indians in Qatar have power but have opted to please their hosts. Cannot have confrontation based on logic and agreement, some blood has to be spilled.

[ricky_v]

https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/11/br ... -corridor/

The corridor is meant to reshape power dynamics in Eurasia, and bridge the middle geo-economic and geopolitical space between the Indo-Pacific and Europe, with a focus on West Asia. IMEC, comprising a multi-modal transportation system, digital infrastructure, and clean hydrogen pipelines, is poised to encounter numerous challenges such as geography, logistics, geopolitics, competition, and regional security.

Despite the worsening situation in Gaza, IMEC remains a priority for President Joe Biden. In his October 19 foreign policy speech, Biden underscored the significance of the corridor in promoting stability, creating jobs, and reducing conflicts. The inclusion of IMEC in Biden’s speech highlights its strategic importance within his foreign policy, indicating a future objective for Washington once there is a resolution to the deteriorating situation in Gaza.

Surprisingly, the United Kingdom—America’s closest geopolitical ally—does not appear to be participating in IMEC. Among European partners, particularly Paris, Berlin, and Rome, London stands out in the war in Gaza. From talks about British troops stationed in Gaza after Israel’s war to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu floating the idea of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair becoming a humanitarian coordinator for Gaza, whether these talks turn into reality or not, they still reflect the value that London brings to the table even after the foreign policy consequences of Brexit. Still, the United Kingdom is missing in action from America’s biggest geo-economic initiative—IMEC, a strategic miscalculation that should be addressed.

Amid global competition, the United States actively works to unite North America, the European Union, and the United Kingdom to counterbalance China and Russia. Washington should invite London to the IMEC in order to improve Britain’s standing as it harmonizes UK interests with those of the United States and the European Union in a changing global environment. A strong British presence globally is critical for the United States, given London’s role in the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) security pact, support for Ukraine, and the UK-Japan-Italy sixth-generation stealth fighter project.


To pursue “Global Britain” as a strategic course in the post-Brexit era, British policymakers should proactively seek entry into the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor by lobbying the United States and the IMEC nations. London, with its historical imperial role in shaping the trajectory of Eurasian rimland, possesses unique insights into this region.

What is Britain’s value proposition for joining the corridor, aside from its historical role and insights?

One key aspect is ensuring the stability of the Mediterranean component of the corridor. With territories and bases in Cyprus, the United Kingdom holds a position of influence in the Mediterranean region. Amidst rising tensions involving Egypt, Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean, Britain has chosen a diplomatic approach. Unlike Paris, which has adopted a more aggressive stance by signing a defense pact with Greece, London has pursued a more measured response. Building on the country’s good relations with Egypt and Turkey, two nations not part of the IMEC corridor, the United Kingdom could potentially serve as a stabilizing factor for the Mediterranean component of the corridor.

[ricky_v]

https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/202 ... Diplomacy/

This report is the first systematic examination of Gulf bailout diplomacy, a policy instrument first used in the early 1960s. It builds on the most extensive dataset of its kind on Gulf bailout flows, with about 500 datapoints corresponding to US$363 billion (constant 2020) disbursed to 22 countries. The report combines six in-depth country case studies, comprising Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Pakistan, Sudan and Yemen with a discussion of geostrategic drivers and regional implications of Gulf bailout diplomacy. It also assesses how effectively the Gulf states have utilised bailout interventions as tools of foreign policy. The report considers the wider implications of the rise of emerging Gulf donors for the broader sovereign-aid and lending landscape in the context of a changing international economic order.

Since the Arab Spring, Qatar has prioritised Turkiye, its closest regional partner, while Saudi Arabia has channelled bailout assistance to Yemen to alleviate the humanitarian impact of the war.




The Gulf states’ funding priorities have evolved in tandem with their regional security environment. In the 1960s and 1970s, Saudi Arabia and newly independent Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar were weak and surrounded by militarily powerful neighbours, notably Egypt, Iraq and Syria, which they sought to appease. In a gesture of pan-Arab solidarity – the governing ideology of their more powerful neighbours – the Gulf states provided financial support to the Arab ‘frontline states’ engaged in military conflict against Israel. Following the 1973 oil crisis and the new-found wealth of the Gulf states, they grew in economic affluence and political influence, settling into a more even footing with regional partners. The Gulf states supported Iraq financially during the Iran–Iraq War and helped Pakistan weather international sanctions imposed upon it due to its nuclear programme. With the traditional Arab heavyweights of Egypt, Iraq and Syria weakened by internal strife, war and economic struggles, by the 2000s the Gulf states were more secure in their positions as the region’s wealthiest and most influential players. Seeking to stabilise the region in the wake of the Arab Spring, they donated large quantities of aid to Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco and Oman, as well as Egypt, Sudan and Yemen, where they hoped to influence political transitions.

theres a proper timeline of the aid to the pakis by the gulf, screenshotting the most recent one here

[sanman]

I'm impressed with this

[ricky_v]

https://ecfr.eu/article/national-intere ... e-red-sea/

But behind the public diplomacy, the Gulf states are divided on how to achieve a ceasefire and how Palestine should be governed after the war. They are also hesitant to risk their own national interests to launch the political initiatives required. And in recent weeks, the Gulf states’ attention has rapidly shifted from Gaza to the risk of confrontation in other regional theatres and including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and, most importantly, the Red Sea.

In part, such public outcry pushed the Gulf states to take a strong diplomatic position against Israel, while making some wary of a mobilised population – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have strictly controlled protests and displays of Palestinian symbols, from flags to keffiyehs.

For the UAE and Bahrain, their inability to play a substantiative role in appeasing the conflict exposed their lack of leverage towards Tel Aviv on the Palestinian issue, in spite of their normalisation with Israel. And while Hamas’ popularity has exploded in the Arab street, the Gulf states would be happy to see Hamas militarily defeated and some of them, such as the UAE, openly describe it as a terrorist organisation.

So far, Qatar has been the most active of the Gulf states. In November, Doha leveraged its hosting of Hamas’s political branch to lead negotiations for the release of hostages in exchange for a humanitarian pause.

Saudi Arabia remains similarly hesitant to push for more ambitious political initiatives, despite being the Arab country with the most leverage over Israel and the US. Rather, the kingdom has treaded carefully, moving mostly at the level of high politics. In November, it led a delegation of Arab and Muslim countries to the capitals of the permanent security council members to gather support for a ceasefire. By doing so, Riyadh tried to reaffirm its role as a diplomatic leader of the Arab-Islamic world on the Palestinian cause, neutralising potential challenges from Turkey and Iran. It obtained however very little from these visits – including from China – and did not achieve any change in American positioning. During the Arab-Islamic meeting, Saudi Arabia even moderated more extremist anti-Israeli positions, including by making sure an oil embargo – raised by other countries – was off the table.

Meanwhile, they accelerated their talks with the Houthis, offering greater concessions regarding the war in Yemen and obtaining in late December an initial commitment towards a ceasefire. Unless Saudi interests, territory, or assets are targeted, Riyadh is unlikely to change course and offer greater support to the US, which it sees as neglecting the interests of its Arab partners for Israel’s military agenda.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia is keeping the door open to normalisation with Israel, and negotiations are likely to eventually resume, with the kingdom hoping to extract an even higher price from the next US administration.

Similarly, the UAE and Bahrain remain keen to protect their new relations with Israel, despite having temporarily frozen them. The UAE intends to eventually use its position as the most trusted Arab interlocutor with Israel to play a key role in the political future of Palestinian governance. Its potential plan is to engineer a political transition from the outside, reshuffling the current Palestinian Authority – largely seen as incompetent – with individuals trusted in Abu Dhabi, such as former Fatah leader turned consigliere to the Emiratis, Mohammad Dahlan. While the UAE is working to bring on board Qatar – the country with the strongest links to several Palestinian factions – the Emirati strategy for Palestinian governance still lacks serious support from other Arab or Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia, who is largely unconvinced of the necessity to deeply reform the Palestinian Authority, is firmly opposed to it.

[Dilbu]

Saudi Arabia prepares to open first alcohol store for diplomats

RIYADH, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is preparing to open its first alcohol store in the capital Riyadh which will serve exclusively non-Muslim diplomats, according to a source familiar with the plans and a document.

Customers will have to register via a mobile app, get a clearance code from the foreign ministry, and respect monthly quotas with their purchases, said the document, which was seen by Reuters. The move is a milestone in the kingdom's efforts, led by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to open the ultra-conservative Muslim country for tourism and business as drinking alcohol is forbidden in Islam.

[NRao]

[ricky_v]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... bc24&ei=73

India and the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday signed an agreement on a trade corridor that aims to connect Europe with India through parts of the Middle East by sea and rail, an ambitious plan backed by the U.S. and the European Union.

The announcement of the framework agreement, reached during a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the Gulf state, was released in a statement by the Indian foreign ministry, although few details on what the sides had agreed on were made public.

The ministry's statement, however, made no mention of any country apart from India and the UAE, a regional Gulf Arab power, whose ties are built on over a century of trade links.

The agreement on the India-Middle East Economic Corridor comes amid the more than four-month war in Gaza that has derailed U.S.-backed plans to further integrate Israel with its Arab neighbours. Saudi Arabia has halted normalisation plans.

The framework agreement between India and the UAE appears to signal that both states are pushing forward with the plan to establish the corridor, which may also undermine China's global trade infrastructure belt and road connectivity strategy.

It has also been signed as Yemen's Houthi movement has launched attacks on shipping vessels sailing the Red Sea, which the Iran-backed group has said is in protest of Israel's bombing of Gaza. The attacks have endangered trade via the sea route.

The UAE and India also signed a bilateral investment treaty and exchanged cooperation agreements covering electrical interconnection, trade, and digital infrastructure.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/AzzatAlsaalem/statu ... 7982771289
Mohammed bin Salman:” we won’t spend 30 years of our lives to fight radicalism, we will destroy them today.”

This was in Riyadh speaking to unveiled TV Host.

[sanman]

Gulf Countries Ban Kashmir Film Endorsed By PM Modi; Arab States Block 'Article 370' Release

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8vBUr99mMQ