Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

[ramana]

SSridhar, I am rethinking what we know about XJP's China in order to see where it can go.
why am I doing this?
1) XJP got his 3rd term. In PRC history he is next only to Mao Zedong. He is the Chairman and master of all that he sees like Ozymandias
2) Yet he does not have or is reluctant to use the power as Mao did.
3) His moves are pushing with a wet noodle. Ex ban on Gallium and Germanium both of which can be re-supplied in due course.
4) He had high-level visits by US cabinet officials Blinken and Yellen whose optics were of hectoring by Wang Yi* and kowtowing by Yellen. These are useless gestures. Wang Yi would make a good Red Guard in MAo's era. Who made him a diplomat?
5) Meantime Bloomberg had a graph of the China Producer Price Index going below Zero i.e. deflating or goods prices are contracting and Consumer Price Index is near zero and trending to below zero. This means Chinese consumer has little money.

Mao Zedong realized the superpower game was three person game and if he allies with the US against the Soviets he gets rid of a border problem and becomes number two. And who knows what the future holds? Deng Xiaoping carried the idea forward and rebuilt the Chinese economy in Angus Madden's terms.
China now has an economic problem while XJP is mired in border tussles with near and far away countries.
And it is the economic recovery that he needs.

As some of you know I am reading the "Why Nations Fail?" book and see the two different models of Extractive and Inclusive political and economic systems.

Deng Xiaoping while retaining the Extractive Political system, moved China from the solely Extractive Economic system and added Inclusive economic systems via SEZs and private enterprises. These led to traditional corruption nests.

XJP focussed on the cleanup of corruption which has been the bane of the dynasties. However, he has not replaced the corrupt with non-corrupt which can kick-start the economy.
And looking back at the MOH principle the real heart of the matter is the people happily pay taxes under a virtuous emperor. A non-virtuous emperor sees civil unrest, famines, etc where he has to spend treasure to address the issues while the people are unhappy and don't pay taxes.
The MOH is really a Governance Resources matter. Lack of it puts the dynasty in a vice grip of unrest which drains the treasury, while people not paying taxes which chokes the funds to the Treasury.

[ramana]

In 1989 a Chinese intellectual wrote "America against America" where he analyzed the tensions in US. What is needed is an analysis of China tensions

https://www.readingthechinadream.com/wa ... rdquo.html

https://sinocism.com/p/engineers-of-the ... deology-in


JOhn Garnaut spkoe in 2017:

I want to make these broad points about the historical foundations of CCP ideology, beyond the fact that it is important:

Communism did not enjoy an immaculate conception in China. Rather, it was grafted onto an existing ideological system - the classical Chinese dynastic system.

China had an unusual veneration for the written word and acceptance of its didactic value.

Marxism-Leninism was interpreted to Mao and his fellow revolutionaries by a crucial intermediary: Joseph Stalin.

Communism - as interpreted by Lenin, Stalin and Mao - is a total ideology. At the risk of being politically insensitive, it is totalitarian.

Xi Jinping has reinvigorated ideology to an extent we have not seen since the Cultural Revolution.

Here I submit XJP is reverting to the classical Chinese authoritarian System aka Confucian System when he says Marxism with Sinic characteristics.

To reinforce!

Xi Jinping has exercised an unwritten aristocratic claim to power which derives from his father’s proximity to the founder of the Red Dynasty: Chairman Mao. He is the compromise representative of all the great founding families. This is the starting point for understanding the worldview of Xi Jinping and his Princeling cohort.

In the view of China’s princelings - or “Revolutionary Successors”, as they prefer to be known - China is still trapped in the cycle which had created and destroyed every dynasty that had gone before. In this tradition, when you lose political power you don’t just lost your job (while keeping your super) as you might in our rather gentrified arrangement. You lose your wealth, you lose your freedom, you probably lose your life and possibly your entire extended family. You are literally erased from history. Winners take all and losers lose everything.

With these stakes, the English idiom “life-and-death-struggle” is far too passive. In the Chinese formulation it is “You-Die, I-Live”. I must kill preemptively in order to live. Xi and his comrades in the red dynasty believe they will go the same way as the Manchus and the Mings the moment they forget.

Rest of the article he tries to make XJP into a neo-Stalin and is not germane.

[SSridhar]

Here I submit XJP is reverting to the classical Chinese authoritarian System aka Confucian System when he says Marxism with Sinic characteristics.

Yes, the traditional system of governance in Sina had been dynastic authoritarianism until every time the Heavens suddenly decided one dynasty had had enough and the system had to be continued by another dynasty.

Both XJP and his hero, the Chairman, are Marxist-Leninists.

There are very few things where XJP differs from his hero. Confucianism is one of them. Mao banished it and asked the Red Guards to vandalize the Confucian cemetery. The other difference is in Marxist theories, to which Mao contributed his own ideas, essentially making them very violent. XJP has not displayed any particular interest in Marxist principles, notwithstanding the blown-out-of-proportion 'XJP Thoughts'.

However, both have a commonality and that is their belief in Leninism which has as its core demands a central point of ruthless totalitarian authority. Confucianism codified that at familial and societal levels and no wonder XJP likes it. Mao had reasons to banish it and XJP has reasons to revive it. Times are different and so are reasons.

[ramana]

Xi Jinping raises concerns over potential collapse of Chinese Communist Party: Report

#InternationalNews

Source

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/xi- ... 93157.html

[ramana]

viewtopic.php?p=2503694#p2503694

I had suggested Xi Jinping could be Last Emperor of Communist Dynasty.

[ramana]

LINK: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blo ... hinas-pla/

Blog article by A China Studies scholar from Haryana

Disappearances and departures: What’s happening in China’s PLA?

Dr. Sriparna Pathak in Voices, World, TOI

The author is an Associate Professor of China Studies and the Director of the Centre for Northeast Asian Studies at O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana.

Corruption has been the bane of most developing societies and China’s case is no different. As per estimates, bribery, kickbacks, theft and waste of public funds cost China at least three percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) and have implications for the country’s economic and political security.

Cadre corruption in China has received significant media attention since Chinese Communist Party (CCP) general secretary Xi Jinping announced his controversial anti-corruption campaign in 2012. Since then, several high-ranking military and government officials have been found guilty of corruption.

The question of corruption in China came to the fore once again recently this month, as China’s new foreign minister Qin Gang has disappeared abruptly from public view, giving rise to speculations that he has fallen foul of the leadership. Rumours of an affair with a well-known television presenter are doing the rounds as well. It is also being speculated that he has been under the weather. However, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin has stated that he has not heard about any such reports.

While Qin’s disappearance is being more widely discussed, there are a few other disappearances and departures that have taken place among Chinese officials lately. Wu Guoua, the deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force reportedly died by suicide on June 6, 2023 — the same day when Xi was conducting an inspection of the Eastern Theatre Command.

However, the odd bit is that the PLA has stated that the cause of Wu’s sudden death was cerebral haemorrhage. This incident marked just one of the recent unfortunate occurrences within the PLA Rocket Force. Li Yuchao, commander of the rocket force, was taken away for an investigation on June 27.

Former Lt. Col. Yao Cheng of the CCP Naval Command had posted on Twitter on June 28 about Li being taken away from his office on the morning of June 27. Yao had added that Li’s son studies in the United States, raising concerns about the potential betrayal of CCP’s military intelligence. On June 28, Xi Jinping presented the ‘certificates of order’ to promote two military officers to the rank of general, clearly implying that the vacuum created had to be filled in, and that some of the disappearances of officials were to remain as disappearances.

Another shocking investigation has been that of former defence minister Wei Fenghe who had squarely placed the blame for the conflict at Galwan on India. There is a link between Li and Wei, since Wei had been instrumental in getting Li on board the services. In addition to Li and Wei, former deputy commander of the rocket force Zhang Zhenhong is under investigation.

The list does not end as Liu Guangbin, deputy commander of the rocket force and Shang Hong, the deputy commander of the Strategic Support force and commander of the space force, are also facing investigations.

Shang’s qualification as a representative to the National People’s Congress was revoked in 2022, and he has not appeared in public since then. Numerous such investigations of defence officials are bound to shake up the morale of any army and indicate difficulties for the highest echelons of governance.

Speculations around corruption remain high given the spate of disappearances and departures from the public eye. However, beneath the cover of corruption and investigations lie issues of disloyalty to Xi Jinping. In 2018, Xi had called for “absolute loyalty” from the military in a speech to the PLA and had stated that strengthening the party’s leadership in the army is necessary for making China and its army powerful.

In 2021, Xi had called on young officials to firm up their ideals and to stay loyal to the party. In 2023, during his visit to the Eastern Command, Xi stated the need for the PLA to strengthen. The question that arises is about the need to reiterate loyalty from cadres and from the PLA continuously. The spate of disappearances and departures clearly indicates there’s trouble brewing within the party and the military.

While a Wagner Group-style rebellion is not possible in China for the simple reason that Chinese security companies handle only non-lethal guard duties, problems around disloyalty or not following Xi’s command in letter and spirit are clearly beginning to show in China.

The developments are worthy to be watched out for, especially from India, because Xi in January 2023 had addressed PLA troops along the India-China border and had hailed the soldiers as models of border defence, and even encouraged them to persist in their efforts and to make new contributions. How all of this plays out given the sudden spike in investigations and disappearances needs to be watched out for.

Very good article by Dr Pathak. Haven't seen such an article from the old warhorses who just fill chairs in numerous China Study groups.
A key point she alludes to but doesn't say it loud is the possibility of the transfer of secrets about the strategic rocket forces.
It can't be corruption except in a secondary way like payment for secrets.

A big concern for CPC is the need to have the utmost loyalty of the PLA as it is the only force that can overthrow it. XJP is also the head of the Military Commission and does wear his PLA uniform on occasion.

My guess is the clash at Galwan and subsequent actions caused a reshuffle in the higher ranks and the background investigations for promotions revealed these personnel problems across the board.

It would be useful to do a mind map of the names mentioned along with position and separation from XJP.

[ramana]

SCMP reports aboput missing Qin Gang.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... onal-image

BTW SCMP is the most widely circulated China daily from Hong Kong.

[ramana]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... er-beijing

Henry Kissinger meets China’s defence minister in surprise visit to Beijing

Ex-US secretary of state’s meeting with Li Shangfu comes amid hopes of improved ties between two countries
The surprise visit of the 100-year-old former US secretary of state comes as John Kerry, the US climate envoy, is in Beijing to meet Chinese officials to discuss how the two countries can cooperate on confronting the climate crisis. Kerry is the latest in a string of senior US officials who have travelled to China this summer, after the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, completed a long-awaited trip in June.

Relations between the two superpowers have been spiralling downwards for months, but there is cautious optimism on both sides that the restarting of official dialogues can build a foundation for improved ties.

Kissinger’s visit, which had not been publicised, is outside the official roster of meetings. It is almost exactly 52 years since his secret visit to Beijing in July 1971, which paved the way for Richard Nixon, the US president at the time, to normalise relations between the US and China. More than half a century on, Kissinger is still seen by many in Beijing as a “friend of China”. In May, state tabloid the Global Times praised Kissinger’s “razor-sharp” mind.

Kissinger has repeatedly warned of “catastrophic” consequences of a conflict between the US and China.

Li has been the subject of US sanctions since 2018, relating to the purchase of combat aircraft from Russia’s main arms exporter, which Beijing cites as a reason for refusing to reopen military-to-military dialogues with Washington. Last month, Li refused to meet his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to request for comment.

[ramana]

A December 2022 analysis newsletter.

https://jamestown.org/wp-content/upload ... -PDF_1.pdf

The 20th Central Military Commission: Personnel and Priorities
Publication: China Brief Volume: 22 Issue: 22
By: Amrita Jash
December 8, 2022 05:06 PM Age: 8 months


Xi Jinping leads the other six members of the Central Military Commission (CMC) on an inspection of the CMC joint operations command center on November 8 (source: Xinhua)
Introduction

“Security” was the operative word in General Secretary Xi Jinping’s opening report to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) this October. Xi stressed that the Party has stood firm against “external attempts to blackmail, contain, blockade and exert maximum pressure” on China promising not to yield to external, “coercive power” and to safeguard the nation’s “dignity and core interests” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China [FMPRC], October 25). Furthermore, in upholding the ‘Party’s goal of “building a strong military in the new era,” Xi declared that China’s armed forces have “become a much more modern and capable fighting force, and the Chinese path to building a strong military is growing ever broader” (FMPRC, October 25). In this light, Xi’s report to the 20th Party Congress offers insights into the aims and objectives for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) under the 20th Central Committee over the next five years, foremost of which are two key imperatives. First, the PLA must abide by complete “loyalty” to the Party and second, it must never cease striving to become a “strong military.”

These directives will shape the efforts of the newly appointed 20th Central Military Commission (CMC) during Xi’s third term as Party Chief and CMC Chairman as well as the Commander-in-Chief of the CMC’s Joint Operations Center since 2016. After the conclusion of the 20th Party Congress, Xi and the other six CMC members inspected the Joint Operations Center on November 8. In his remarks, Xi set the ground rules for the PLA by stating that “the entire military should devote all its energy to and carry out all its work for combat readiness, enhance its capability to fight and win, and effectively fulfill its missions and tasks in the new era” (Xinhuanet, November . Xi also demanded that the armed forces implement “the Party’s thinking on strengthening the military for the new era, follow the military strategy for the new era and adhere to combat effectiveness as the sole criterion” (Global Times, November 9).

Some Old, Some New PLA Leadership

Apart from changes to the political leadership, the Party Congress is also pivotal in reorganizing the Chinese military leadership—the CMC. In China, the CMC, the highest military operational and decision-making body at the PLA’s helm, controls China’s domestic security forces and the People’s Armed Police (PAP). This critical aspect makes the composition of the CMC significant.

On October 23, the new CMC lineup was formally announced at the first plenary session of the 20th CCP Central Committee (FMPRC, October 23). The CMC continues to be comprised of seven members: Xi Jinping as Chairman; Zhang Youxia and He Weidong as Vice Chairmen; and Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, and Zhang Shengmin as members (Xinhuanet, October 24).

Table 1: 20th CMC Members

Name CMC Appointment
(Order of Rank)

Service Members of the 19th CMC
Xi Jinping Chairman – Yes
Zhang Youxia Vice Chairman PLA Army Yes
He Weidong Vice Chairman PLA Army No
Li Shangfu Member
Title: Head of Equipment Development Department of the CMC;

to be the next Minister of National Defense

PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) No
Liu Zhenli Member
Title: Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC

PLA Army No
Miao Hua Member
Title: Director of Political Work of the CMC

PLA Navy (PLAN) Yes
Zhang Shengmin Member
Title: Head of Discipline and Inspection of the CMC

PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) Yes
A number of aspects of the new CMC lineup are notable. The PLA Army enjoys renewed dominance in its representation on the supreme military body with Army General and Eastern Theater Commander General He Weidong replacing retiring PLA Air Force (PLAAF) General Xu Qiliang as a vice chairman (VC) (Xinhua, October 23). As a result, the PLAAF is no longer represented on the CMC. In addition, the military personnel who were promoted possess experience in military equipment and defense science and technology. Both Zhang Youxia and Li Shangfu have served as directors of the Equipment Development Department (Xinhuanet, March 18, 2018; China Daily, September 19, 2017). Finally, despite neither being from the Army, Miao Hua and Zhang Shengmin rose through the ranks as political commissars, demonstrating the importance that Xi places on ensuring the PLA maintains internal discipline and remains on the correct ideological course (Xuexi Juntuan, January 22; PLA Daily, January 20).

Having close personal ties and displaying loyalty to Xi appears to have been another important qualification for promotion or retention on the 20th CMC. For Xi, this was clearly a prime motivator in keeping General Zhang Youxia on as a CMC VC at age 72 in contravention of the Party’s unofficial retirement age of 68 for Politburo members. Of the six members, Xi retained three members from the 19th Party Congress. Striking a balance in the 3:3 ratio, Xi has drawn on a mix of “old” and “new” loyalists (China Brief, November 3). For instance, unlike VC Zhang Youxia, who is an old hand, He Weidong, prior to being appointed as VC, had no experience on either the CMC or the CCP Central Committee.

Operational experience and battlefield readiness have also been key to Xi’s calculus in determining the personnel composition of the CMC, in particular the selection of the two VC positions. General Zhang, who moves up from the second to the first ranked VC role, is one of the few PLA officers with direct combat experience, having served in both the China-Vietnam 1979 war and the subsequent border clashes between China and Vietnam in the 1980s, including participation in the Battle of Laoshan in 1984 (The Paper, March 3, 2016). In addition, General Liu Zhenli, who was recently selected to head the Joint Staff Department, following a stint as Commander of the Army, also gained combat experience in the China-Vietnam border conflicts of the 1980s (South China Morning Post, October 13). In addition, the appointment of General He Weidong as a VC is significant as he served as the former commander of the Eastern Theatre Command (ETC) that oversees Taiwan and the East China Sea; and he is also reported to have planned the military exercises around Taiwan in response to U.S. House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August. In addition, He Weidong also served as Deputy Commander of the Western Theatre Command (WTC) and was Commander of the WTC Army. The WTC oversees operational jurisdiction over China’s borders with Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Myanmar. Therefore, the military experience with Taiwan and India was pivotal in Xi’s selection of General He.

A ‘To-Do’ List for China’s Armed Forces

On October 24, in his first military meeting since the conclusion of the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping categorically outlined the “immediate tasks” for the PLA by stating that: “members of the armed forces must uphold the main theme of the congress, carefully read the report to the 20th CPC National Congress and the new Party Constitution, research the thoughts, perspectives, strategies, and measures included in those documents, and align their minds and deeds with the Party” (China Military Online, October 25). These imperatives highlight that, unlike other countries, Chinese armed forces are ultimately a Party force and therefore, the “gun” must always be controlled by the Party.”

The 20th Party Congress seeks to set the PLA on its path to establish three key milestones. The first is meeting the centenary benchmark of ensuring the PLA is on track with its military modernization program in 2027; achieving the basic realization of PLA modernization by 2035, and completing the development of a world-class military by mid-century (PLA Daily, November 5). These goals have become the strategic prerequisites for making China a modernized and socialist nation. In his first military meeting after the conclusion of the Party Congress, Xi posited that the central mission for the PLA lies in achieving these goals in the “coming five years” and that it “must spare no effort to meet these goals by 2027” (China Military Online, October 25). In order to achieve this objective, the PLA must: apply the thinking on strengthening the military for the new era; implement the military strategy for the new era; and maintain the “Party’s absolute leadership over the people’s armed forces” (FMPRC, October 25).

It is noteworthy that, in the guidelines for the PLA set forth by Xi in the 20th Party Congress report, allegiance towards the Party precedes troop training and combat preparedness. On the ideological front, the report calls for the PLA to enhance building political loyalty towards the Party, ensure allegiance to the Party’s command, adopt the current CCP theory as espoused by Xi and strengthen Party organizations within the military. In terms of operational aspects, the guidelines emphasize the need for the PLA to develop its combat readiness, strategic deterrence, and joint operation capabilities, among others. This prioritization proves that being “red” over “expert” is more important in today’s PLA. Following up on the 20th Party Congress, the CMC issued a guideline on the “study, publicity, and implementation of the guiding principles” of the 20th National Congress of the CCP in the military (People’s Daily Online, November 7). This is now regarded as the primary political task of the Party, the country, and the armed forces for the present and for some time to come (China Brief, November 18).

Conclusion

Now that Xi has a new CMC in place and has instructed the PLA with strict guidelines, he will accelerate efforts in his third term to build a strong military. For Xi, this entails a force that is both loyal to himself and the party, as well as prepared for warfighting. Therefore, it is worth watching if the new CMC, on matters where China’s “core interests,” such as Taiwan or the border dispute with India, are concerned, will continue with an approach premised primarily on coercion or whether it will instead show an increased proclivity for the direct use of military force.

Amrita Jash is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), India. She was a Pavate Fellow at the Department of POLIS, University of Cambridge. Dr. Jash is the author of The Concept of Active Defence in China’s Military Strategy (2021).

Read-the-12.8-Issue-in-PDF_1.pdf

Two comments.
1) looks like the extended China Watcher group comprising of younger staff is doing a good job compared to the old (toothless) tigers retired from IFS and Indian Army.
2) I have a different take on XJP exerting political control on PLA. It shows the vulnerability of the CPC to the PLA developing nationalist ideas. Hence the emphasis on Party over Country in the control system aka CMC.

[ramana]

Rana Mitter in Guardian

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ll-stumble

[ricky_v]

Qin Gang has been replaced by Wang Yi as the foreign minister, he has been missing for a month, supposedly health reasons

[SSridhar]

Qin Gang has been replaced by Wang Yi as the foreign minister, he has been missing for a month, supposedly health reasons

There are also other rumours within China such as an affair, and having an out-of-wedlock child both contrary to Confucian values, which XJP is trying to instil. In other words, XJP suddenly didn’t find him ‘Ameen & Sadiq’. How the famed MSS did not know that before he was elevated as State Councillor is mysterious!!

[RaviB]

In China, pretty much everyone who can afford it has a mistress. In business circles, it is seen as a sign of success. So the mistress can't be the real reason for him losing his post. I wouldn't be surprised if he actually got taken out by Wang Yi himself.

The story is that Qin first got close with Xi when his wife gifted homemade moon cakes to Xi's wife. Then he rose pretty quickly, so there must have been a hundred people snapping at his heels and working for his downfall.

Some might remember the case of the tennis star Peng Shuai. She was allegedly the mistress of Zhang Gaoli and in fact Zhang's wife was also involved in the affair. Ultimately it was Peng who was disappeared without Zhang taking any heat for it. So in the present case of Qin Gang, it is most likely that he was taken out because of factional fighting and not the mistress.

[ramana]

Most likely its internal power politics.
No point in speculating.

[SSridhar]

Yeah, no need to speculate, but we can analyze perhaps.

IMO, if there was a power struggle or factional feud, that should have happened during the meeting at Beidaihe several weeks before the 20th Congress when the new positions and inductees would have been discussed among the very top. We remember the revolt staged by Xi in c. 2012. The fact that Wang Yi had to come back one step down now (of course, he is still a Politburo member) and the fact that no one else has so far been known to have been purged or alternatively given the position of Qin suggests that power struggle or factional feud may not be the real cause. Besides, XJP would not easily dismiss a candidate, especially one of the most important State Councillors, whom he had selected just 8 months back because that reflects poorly on his choice. Also, Qin Gang had had a long stint in the Foreign Ministry, held the position of its Spokesman, and Ambassador to the US. AFAIK, there would be no better person for XJP at this crucial juncture in the US-China relationship than him after Wang Yi went further up. IMO, XJP would not have tolerated factional feud for such a position that needs his close confidante, especially when he is likely to meet Biden in a few months' time in probably one of the most crucial meetings of his Presidency.

Therefore, it has got to be a really solid reason for his removal. It is either some moral turpitude which has caused serious problems or poor performance or insubordination or even treachery. Coincidentally, the disappearance happened within a week of Blinken's visit to China.

[ramana]

BTW Qin Gang or Chin Gang is being rehabilitated as his references are being put back.

That itself is a topic for analysis!

Was QG always in Foreign Ministry?

[ramana]

SSridahr, About two years back I suggested CPC is another Chinese dynasty and XJP is one of its most powerful Emperors.
All emperors fade away.
Do we have the contours of his successor?
Will it be another CPC or PLA or like in Communist regimes an Internal Security person?*

Beria(killed by the Krushchev gang), Andropov, Putin, etc.

[SSridhar]

BTW Qin Gang or Chin Gang is being rehabilitated as his references are being put back.

That itself is a topic for analysis!

Was QG always in Foreign Ministry?

ramana, the references are being put back because the Foreign Ministry scrubbed clean all references to QG as though he never existed. Then who was the Foreign Minister for the last eight months? What about the speeches he gave and so many people he met and shook hands with? This is something like TSP claiming that the history of Sind (that part of Bharat) started only with Mohammed bin Qaasim's intrusion in 712 CE ! Ultimately, someone in the Foreign Ministry understood the ridicule they were being subjected to and decided to reinstate that part of the history. I do not see anything beyond that. To me, Chinese diplomacy has largely been a joke.

If he is being rehabilitated so soon then he should be reinstated now in his old position. There is nothing like being somewhat pregnant. But he had been removed by the NPC's Standing Committee. I have never heard of anybody being rehabilitated so quickly. So, reinstatement is ruled out. China has cut a very sorry figure l'affaire Qin Gang. IMO, this is a blow for XJP and his reputation is dented.

[Anujan]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ile-force/

China replaces missing head of nuclear missile force in major military shake-up

Mr Yuchao and Mr Guangbin have been missing for several months amid what intelligence sources claim is part of an investigation into the alleged leaking of military secrets.

[SRajesh]

^^Meaning there has been a 'Smorgasbord' type culling going on!!
Emperor maybe tightening the grip given dire economic forecast and unrest brewing in the Tier II/III/IV cities which has been kept under wrap and away from western media glare??

[SSridhar]

SSridahr, About two years back I suggested CPC is another Chinese dynasty and XJP is one of its most powerful Emperors.
All emperors fade away.
Do we have the contours of his successor?
Will it be another CPC or PLA or like in Communist regimes an Internal Security person?*

ramana, I agree with your characterisation of CCP as just another dynasty and XJP is its most powerful emperor as yet. I refer to my post made just after the 20th Congress, here.

The gist of it is that Deng Xuexiang appears to me to his successor for this reason, the 7-up-and-8-down rule. He would be the only one to survive in the 21st Congress from th current crop, apart, of course, from the Supreme Leader himself.

In the 20th Congress, the ages of members of PSC are:
Li Qiang, 63; Zhao Leji, 65; Wang Huning, 67; Cai Qi, 66; Ding Xuexiang, 60; Li Xi, 66

This means that except for Ding, the rest will retire by the 21st Congress. If Li Qiang becomes Premier now, then Ding Xuexiang is the likely successor for XJP, provided XJP relinquishes. Ding is also supposed to be a close confidante of XJP and their association goes back to XJP's Shanghai days. It is said that he attends all sensitive meetings along with XJP, unsurprising because he is his Chief of Staff or Cabinet Secretary or similar ranking.

Deng Xuexiang had been keeping a tab on all leaders as Director of the General Office, like Hoover though for not so long like him. The General Office is like our PMO but far more powerful in XJP's totalitarian regime.

Today, he is the First Vice Premier in the Cabinet.

If XJP continues for a 4th term, then Ding might get a place in the cabinet but he too would not succeed him in the 22nd Congress even if XJP condescends to step down in c. 2033.

[ramana]

Thanks for the insight. I was more focussed on the background of the successor rather than the successor.
Which institution will provide the succession leadership?

rsatchi, The rocket forces leadership change is due to leaking military secrets they say. So it is not about tightening the XJP grip.
Its already tight yet leaks happened.

[SSridhar]

Which institution will provide the succession leadership?

It has to come from core CPC leadership. I do not foresee a Yuan Shikai type of power usurpation by PLA. Warlords in China have ruled here and there even in Imperial times. But, Emperor has to establish a dynasty and continue it. CPC is a well established dynasty and is not in any danger even if the Heavens, at some point of time, decide that XJP has lost their favour.

[Cyrano]

The China miracle unraveling, and it seems no longer taboo to talk about it:

https://www.architecturaldigest.com/sto ... s-in-china

[ramana]

Link: https://www.youtube.com/live/9LbLXRtGoDg?feature=share




In Chinese dynastic cycle history floods, and epidemics all are signs that Mandate of Heaven(MOH) is moving away.

I had predicted XJP as the last Emperor of the CPC dynasty.

I take a bow!!!

[SSridhar]

Utter Disaster.

[ramana]

BRI is a jobs program for China paid by debt in the developing countries. All material and labor is from China. And the host country gets a loan from China to be part of BRI which will carry Chinese goods in future.

So what is the benefit to the host country!

[NRao]

[g.sarkar]

China’s Economy Is Poor, Xi Jinping Is Closing off the Country, Foreign Investment Flees Rapidly

Amid the backdrop of a weakening Chinese economy, a real-life political thriller is slowly unfolding. Wall Street's financial tycoons, once dominated the Chinese capital market, manipulating the winds of change. However, without any warning, they withdrew and publicly talked down the Chinese economy. Is it the cold, hard economic data that forced them to do so, or are there deeper considerations manipulating everything behind the scenes?
....
Gautam
China Observer is Falun Gong-affiliated.

[ramana]

https://amp.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... ions-china

[g.sarkar]

China’s Apocalypse? After the Floods, Bridges Collapsed; Earthquakes, Tornadoes & Locusts Followed

Floods, Earthquakes, Tornadoes, Locust Plagues, and Ground Eruptions All Hit China Simultaneously. Based on ancient Chinese beliefs, these frequent natural disasters and anomalies suggest the end of the Communist regime is near. Despite these warnings, there's no sign of remorse from the leaders.
......
Gautam
Has the "The Mandate of Heaven" changed?

[wig]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Xi-s-m ... peculation

Xi's missed speech at BRICS event sparks speculation
extracts

Chinese President Xi Jinping's mysterious absence from a business event at the BRICS summit in South Africa has sparked a flurry of speculation, as he had been scheduled to deliver a speech.

Xi arrived in Johannesburg late on Monday for a state visit and this week's gathering of leaders from the BRICS -- a loose grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This is only Xi's second overseas visit this year, after a trip to Russia in March.

On Tuesday, he appeared in public with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. Later in the day, he was scheduled to attend and address the BRICS Business Forum, but he was a no-show. Instead, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao read a speech on Xi's behalf.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 51299.html
PM Modi, Xi meet at BRICS, call for respecting LAC
HT News Desk, Aryan Prakash, Aug 24, 2023
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday spoke to Chinese president Xi Jinping and highlighted India's concerns on the unresolved issues along the LAC, foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra said at a briefing.
“The prime minister underlined that the maintenance of peace and tranquility in the border areas, and observing and respecting the LAC are essential for the normalisation of the India-China relationship”, Kwatra added.
“In this regard, two leaders agreed to direct relevant officials to intensify efforts at expeditious disengagement and de-escalation”, the foreign secretary added.
Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Modi and the Chinese president shook hands and greeted each other ahead of the BRICS leaders' briefing. Both the leaders were seen interacting briefly on the stage.
This was the first interaction between the two leaders after the meeting at G20 dinner in Bali last November. The prime minister had shook hands with Jinping who smiled at him. PM Modi and Jinping had spoken to each other for few minutes then.
It was the first meeting between Modi and Xi Jinping since the Indian and Chinese armies clashed at Galwan Valley in 2020. The relations between the two countries have been strained since the standoff. Both the countries have held military level talks to resolve the border issues.
.....
Gautam
Not much substance. I am sure more analysis will follow.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/beij ... 230825.htm
Beijing sought Modi-Xi talks: India rejects China's claim
Utkarsh Mishra, August 25, 2023
Two days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a conversation in Johannesburg, India and China on Friday offered divergent views on which side sought the engagement with Indian sources saying that a Chinese request for a bilateral meeting is pending.
Prime Minister Modi and President Xi held the conversation on Wednesday on the sidelines of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit in Johannesburg.
The conversation was not a structured bilateral meeting and was an informal one.
There was a pending request from the Chinese side for a bilateral meeting, sources in the Indian side said hours after the Chinese foreign ministry released a readout on the Modi-Xi conversation that said it was held at the Indian side's request.
"The two leaders, however, had an informal conversation in the leaders lounge during the BRICS summit," said a source.
The Chinese readout said: 'President Xi Jinping talked with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the BRICS summit at the latter's request on August 23.'
In his conversation with Modi, Xi stressed that improving China-India relations serves common interests and it is conducive to peace and stability of the world and the region, it said.
India's Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra on Thursday said Modi conveyed to Xi India's concerns on the 'unresolved' issues along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, underlining that maintenance of peace and tranquillity in border areas was essential for normalisation of India-China ties.
The Chinese readout described the conversation between the two leaders on Wednesday as 'candid and in-depth'.
......
Gautam
Eleven is seeking a face-saver.
Also see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKROLwQ ... =MojoStory

[SSridhar]

This is expected. Not losing face is very important for XJP.

There are many instances of similar Chinese lying.

[NRao]

Interesting.

[bala]

^^ good information and very interesting from Major Madhan Kumar. The Chinese are itching for another dhamaka near the borders of India. Meanwhile, there are numerous reports that a Chinese Type 093 nuclear submarine crashed/exploded, killing all crew onboard in the Yellow Sea.

I fail to understand the India strategy of only replying to aggression, rather the fight ought to be reversed. India needs to take over a soft spot (maybe Aksai Chin region) and the chinese will be forced quickly into negotiating a settlement. India also ought to takeover Pakistan occupied kashmir land back to 1947 legal border lines.

[RaviB]

India has been messaging China and I think they have been getting it. Three ex-service chiefs in Taiwan present in a very public way at the same time means a lot. PRC is super sensitive to anything happening in Taiwan, so they got the message for sure. New Taiwanese consulate also shows that Chinese diplomatic attacks will have consequences. On Tibet also there has been renewed signaling, though I think PRC doesn't care too much about that anymore.

Access given to US forces in Andaman also makes PRC nervous.

Regarding kinetic war, the question is not if but when. The main consideration is whether we should do it now or buy time. If we are closing the gap and preparing for the fight, then we should delay. If we are never going to be better than now, then now would be the time. I think the answer on this is clear, the longer we have the better our performance is likely to be. If China is stupid enough to get involved in Taiwan, it will give us an opportunity to grab territory, just like they did during Kargil.

I think it is futile to think in terms of honour and revenge. A war is about concrete interests, money and resources. If we get carried away by emotions, then we are no better than TFTA Pak Army.

[ramana]

I think there is complicated internal logic among certain quarters seeking to needle India.
The balance of forces and potential for escalation is such that PLA will get a bloody nose and that reflects on XJP.
After the third term these folks see a clash with India as a way to unseat XJP.

[SSridhar]

ramana, the Chinese populace largely believes that Indian lands are actually Chinese, Tibet & Xinjiang are theirs, Russian lands are actually Chinese, Japan belongs to China, Taiwan Straits is local Chinese waterway, Indo-China Sea belongs to China etc. Taiwan still maintains a Department of Tibet/Mongolia within its Foreign Ministry, irrespective of whether it is Kuomintang or the DPP. Therefore, to egg China to a war with India has a potential drawback of misfiring unless and until PLA's WTC is destroyed and a permanent shame is inflicted on China. If that happens, it would be a 1894-95 Korea moment which ultimately led to revolts against the alien Qing. Otherwise, nationalistic fervour can be inflamed and that would play into XJP's hands.

I therefore take a different view. There are other domestic issues that would be potentially more inflammable than a war with India and more certain of achieving the aims of deposing XJP. Besides, the domestic situation will only get worse as XJP steadily loses control. It can also happen that a totalitarian like XJP may decide to go to war with India in desperation to save himself thinking that it would be a low-hanging fruit that would bolster his chances. The echo-chamber of the PSC & CMC might lead him down the garden path. But, that's an entirely different matter.

Either way, war is on the horizon.