Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

[ramana]

Changing gears.

Some huge realignment is going on between the big Four: US, China, India, and Russia. The Ukraine War has reduced UK, France, and Germany to non-entities. Japan.is trying to.find itself but faces a huge China.

[hgupta]

Unless India secures its own energy supplies, produces its own engines, and semiconductors, India will remain a small player despite its size and economy. It has to show that it is capable of withstanding blackmail attempts and still achieve its national goals. That means Modi cannot buckle under the onslaught by US and Canada wrt Khalistanis. If necessary, India must openly declare a dead or alive bounty on Pannu and his co-conspirators.

Therefore, India remains lower on the pecking order.

[Aldonkar]

Unless India secures its own energy supplies, produces its own engines, and semiconductors, India will remain a small player despite its size and economy. It has to show that it is capable of withstanding blackmail attempts and still achieve its national goals. That means Modi cannot buckle under the onslaught by US and Canada wrt Khalistanis. If necessary, India must openly declare a dead or alive bounty on Pannu and his co-conspirators.

Therefore, India remains lower on the pecking order.

Although India has made ground recently, it has far to go. In my own industry (electronics) I see so many weakness. This is being rectified by enticing companies such as Foxton (hope I have got it right) to manufacture in India but also there needs to be a change in attitude from the Public in that they need to see Indian manufacture as an asset. The quality may be inferior for a short wile but will improve. I remember going through this with Hong Kong, earlier Japan and even countries such as Holland (I am older than Modi!).

I blame the previous governments of India for not encouraging manufacturing as a means to gain employment for ordinary people. This government is the only one that has begun to tackle the problem.

[A_Gupta]

Not sure this is the correct China thread to post this in.
https://www.npr.org/2023/12/20/12205590 ... pects-wane

Last year, one of China's most popular buzzwords was runology, a pun referring to the art and science of emigrating. This year, China's middle class still has plenty of reasons to vote with their feet - a government crackdown on tycoons, a faltering real estate sector and geopolitical jousting with the U.S. But the journalist says that for people like himself, it basically boils down to three things. He says in Chinese...

(Through interpreter) One is your children's education and medical care. The other is the long-term safety of your family's assets. And for people in the fields of culture and media, there's another demand, which is freedom of thought and speech.

...
....
KUHN: Of course, Chinese have been emigrating, sojourning and going into exile in Japan for a long time. They include people like statesman Sun Yat-sen. In the early 1900s, Sun organized a revolutionary party based in Japan that overthrew the last Chinese imperial dynasty. Tokyo University China expert Akio Takahara explains.

AKIO TAKAHARA: A hundred years ago, all those revolutionaries came to Japan and found Japan as a good base, as it were, to prepare for the political change. And it is possible that Japan will play some kind of a role similar to that in the future.

KUHN: You can see that at the One Way Street bookstore in Tokyo's Ginza district, where people come to read and buy books and listen to lectures in Chinese. Bookstores in mainland China used to hold symposia like these where ideas and current events were debated, but in the current political environment, that's no longer possible. One of the speakers is Hu Ang, a professor of architecture at Tokyo University. He explains what brought him to settle in Japan.

HU ANG: (Through interpreter) In Kyoto, you can see the graceful architectural style of Tang and Song dynasty China. It's preserved in some places in China, but the place to find traditional Chinese culture preserved in a systematic and complete way is actually in Japan.

KUHN: Hu studied in the U.S. and taught at Oxford. But he says it was not until he came to Japan that he felt he returned to his cultural roots.

HU: (Through interpreter) When you see so many beautiful gardens and traditional architecture, it helps you to see your cultural lineage clearly, and slowly, the feeling of recognizing your mother culture comes to you.

KUHN: And that sense of belonging could make the difference between a feeling of going into exile, or emigrating, or coming home.

[ramana]

https://twitter.com/DivaJain2/status/17 ... g-egw&s=19

[ramana]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 16807.html

Indian media analysis of
Zhang Jiadong's Global Times article.

[ricky_v]

https://iai.tv/articles/understanding-c ... _auid=2020

Unlike his two predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, Xi Jinping is not a managerial but a transformational leader. He is changing China and intends to make a huge impact on the world. He aims to make what I will refer to as Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics the latest and best rendition of China’s Marxist-Leninist ideology. Having made himself leader for life, Xi will use his Thought to guide Chinese policy in the coming decade or two, if not longer. Now the two are intertwined, if we are to understand China we must understand Xi.

To use the imaginary of the digital era, China’s Leninist political system can be described as the hardware while its governing ideology is the operating system (OS). Xi has kept the hardware in place, but he has altered how it works by replacing the operating system. In effect, China’s system delivered totalitarianism under Mao Zedong’s OS1.0, ruthless authoritarian pragmatism focused on growth under Deng Xiaoping’s OS2.0, and a Sino-centric globally ambitious dictatorship under Xi’s OS3.0.

The one party rule means reinvigorating the Communist Party as a Leninist instrument of control, especially the concept of the Vanguard State enforcing ideology. As Xi has stated publicly, ‘whether it is in the East, West, South, North or in the middle, be it in the party, government, military, civilian or the educational realm, the Party leads everything’. Hence, elements of civil society that had emerged previously have been eliminated under Xi. Anti-corruption will be sustained as it is also used to remove any cadre whose dedication is deemed insufficient.

Beyond China, the China Dream is meant to secure ‘the common destiny of the humankind’. This term is deliberately mistranslated by the Chinese state and media into the anodyne ‘a community of shared future’, a usage adopted uncritically by the Western media and commentariat. The original Chinese term does not include the word ‘community’ which implies its members are equal and have agency of their own. It also clearly refers to ‘destiny’, not a future that is shared voluntarily.

Xi’s ‘common destiny of the humankind’ dovetails with the traditional Chinese concept of the world called tianxia, meaning all under heaven. To Xi, the tianxia paradigm applied when China was united and powerful in history. In this conceptualisation, tianxia prevailed when China led the world in wealth, power, advanced technologies and civilisation. As such China was not only magnificent but also benevolent, so much so that other states would choose to respect, admire and follow the leadership of China. Pax Sinica thus prevailed. To Xi, this is a better international order than the post-war liberal international variant – a façade for US hegemony for the benefit of the US and the rich capitalist Western countries.

To forge the common destiny of humankind, Xi has devised three global initiatives which were released in yearly intervals. They may come across as rhetorical mumbo-jumbo to Western leaders but they are designed to appeal to the Global South.

The first, the Global Development Initiative (2021), advocates that all countries deserve development. It was released when the West prioritised themselves over poor countries in coping with the Covid Pandemic. The Global Security Initiative (2022) was announced when the West focused on European traditional and energy security shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, when the Global South suffered acutely from food and energy insecurity. The Global Civilisation Initiative (2023) ‘pushes for and contributes to world peace and development’ with Xi stressing that ‘forging the common destiny of humankind is where the future of people of all countries lies’.

[A_Gupta]

Is the Chinese high speed maglev in a low-vacuum tube a vanity project or will it be practical?

[ramana]

Link: https://twitter.com/GrahamTAllison/stat ... E8BoA&s=19

He went on to use an interesting metaphor to describe the US-China relationship: “I am in you, and you are in me” (你中有我，我中有你).

[ramana]

Xi understood the Sino-US relationship better than the US ever did.
"We are in you, you are in us!"
Means very visceral to separate as US wants to.

After FSU collapse, US needs an adversary for own existence. GOAT on Islamist terrorism bankrupted the US leading to China showing its ambitions.
Eight years after 2008 financial meltdown XJP gave his 19th Congress speech outlawing China's grand strategy.

COVID pandemic took its toll 9n both countries.

We live in.interesting times.

[Vayutuvan]

Is the Chinese high speed maglev in a low-vacuum tube a vanity project or will it be practical?

Yes.

[ramana]

Plenty of reports from and about China indicate a collapse of the Communist regime.
It would be good to read about previous collapses of regimes and see the common signs.
Eg are
1) French dynasty before Bastille
2) Czarist Russia before the 1917 October revolution
3) 1912 Qin Dynasty
3) FSU collapse in 1992
Please identify the factors and signs.
After that, we see how many are present in the PRC.
Its possible like dead man walking the regime plods along but its vital spirit is gone.

Eg. After Kargil Gamble Pakistan is not what it used to be and most observers noted its a matter of when and not it will collapse.

Galwan represents PRC's Kargil Gamble.

[ramana]

French revolution

Factors
Empty Treasury due to American War of Independence.
Bourgeois and peasants were tired off French nobility
French monarchy since Louis XIII spent money on grand palaces etc.
Enlightenment era that questioned the rights of kings and authority.

Signs
Louis XVI convening the Estat general or Parliament

French nobility distancing from reality.

General economic slowdown causing misery to both Bourgeois and peasantry

These were prevalent for atleast 150 years as Louis XIII started consolidating France.
Please add.

[SSridhar]

Plenty of reports from and about China indicate a collapse of the Communist regime.

Ramana, that is true.

Someone was pointing to protests in memory of Li Keqiang and the stifling of the same by CPC.

It brings out a stark reality underlying the three incidents Nanjing/Tiananmen (1976), Tiananmen (1989) and possibly Li Keqiang (2023/2024). The first two have been defining moments in modern China's history.

All of them were as a result of displeasure against the CCP for not honouring, to the point of even disrespecting, what many in China consider as national heroes.

Zhou en-Lai in 1976, Hu Yaobang in 1989 and now Li.

In some quarters, there is lingering doubt about the sudden death of Li Keqiang.

Will the third be as effective?

[ramana]

As usual BRF is ahead if the curve.

Now watch copycat chatteratti on YouTube saying the same without attribution.

[ramana]

Link: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1310477.shtml

OPINION / EDITORIAL
Modi's remarks on China-India relations are thought-provoking: Global Times editorial
By Global Times Published: Apr 11, 2024 11:51 PM
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi File photo:VCG

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi File photo:VCG

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "rare" direct statement on China-India ties has been attracting attention. In an exclusive interview with US magazine Newsweek, he stated that for India, the relationship with China is important and significant; India and China "need to urgently address the prolonged situation on our borders so that the abnormality in our bilateral interactions can be put behind us." He said that stable and peaceful relations between India and China are important for not just the two countries but the entire region and world, adding that "I hope and believe that through positive and constructive bilateral engagement at the diplomatic and military levels, we will be able to restore and sustain peace and tranquility in our borders." Reuters interpreted the remarks as "an apparent softening of tone" on China-Indian bilateral issues.

On the Indian side, particularly among officials responsible for diplomacy and the military, occasional comments have been made on China-Indian relations and border issues over the years, sometimes soft, sometimes tough. However, Modi's direct statement, especially his clear position, is quite rare and carefully timed, hence receiving exceptional attention from the public opinion.

The last time his remarks were highly anticipated was when Modi emphasized that peace on India's border with China is essential for normal relations, and that India was committed to protecting its sovereignty and dignity, while attending the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Hiroshima, Japan, last year, which clearly catered to the Western audience who were wishing to see China-India row. This time, his remarks come after the intensification of China-India border tensions due to US' biased stance and before the upcoming elections in India, and are thus more worthy of consideration.

Modi's interview has sent out quite positive signals regarding China-Indian relations. It corrects the recent heating-up trend of India's attitude and actions on border issues, demonstrating a willingness to pragmatically resolve problems and ease bilateral relations.

In fact, this attitude is what China has always adhered to. The border issue is not the whole of China-India ties. It should be placed at an appropriate position in the bilateral relationship and properly managed. Both sides have enough wisdom and ability to resolve the issue through diplomatic and military channels. If India can implement Modi's statement and meet China halfway, bilateral relations moving forward on a healthy and stable track is something that can be expected.

Of course, regarding an interview published in Newsweek, an American magazine with significant influence, Modi clearly understands that the primary audience for these words is in the US and Western public opinion. These statements may not be so "pleasing" to some in Washington who hope to weaken China through worsening relations between China and India, but this is precisely the message India wants to convey to them at the moment. The top authorities of India have maintained a sober cognition toward Washington's desire for escalating "dragon-elephant rivalry" or even to steer China and India toward confrontation, and have kept strategic autonomy in developing relations with China in their own hands. They have also maintained a restrained attitude toward voices both domestically and internationally that hope for further deepening of ties between the US and India, leaving themselves more room for maneuver.

More importantly, these remarks reflect India's perspective on current geopolitical and economic relations. This interview discusses many aspects of India's "rise" in domestic and foreign affairs, and the views and attitudes of Modi, one of the most important candidates in this election, will undoubtedly offer a glimpse into the important direction of India's development in the next stage. Development remains the most important issue for India, necessitating a favorable regional environment. Being in conflict with China would squeeze the resources needed for development, while maintaining relatively stable relations with China is a more advantageous geopolitical and economic choice for India.

In fact, as two of the most eye-catching developing countries in the world, two Asian nations with ancient civilizations, how to perceive their relationship and how to approach development should transcend the mind-set and imagination of viewing each other as either friend or foe, or the zero-sum game of "your strength is my weakness." In fact, China has consistently advocated for India to grasp the bilateral relationship from a strategic and long-term perspective. India faces significant temptations and strategic traps to overcome in doing so, which requires the country to remain vigilant and discard distractions from third parties with ill intentions at all times.

Modiji is diplomat par excellence!