Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[Aditya_V]

^ Comments on the article are questioning how this can be when most of the country gets food subsidies.

Logic says if people are given free 5 KG food grains, they get money to spend on their important essentials.

Any ways as per these people Pakistanis are less Hungry anyways and BD Per capita income is 3x that of Indians. i.e vapor ware statistics

[A_Gupta]

Haha, subsidies are a widely used poverty-alleviating mechanism

e.g., 16% of the US military veteran families get food subsidies; and 12.5% of the US population as a whole (in both cases I mean the US food stamp program). {These numbers I looked up y'day}. During COVID, the US had a child care tax credit -- a subsidy -- and it reduced childhood poverty by 30%.

The point I'm making is that subsidies are part of what lift people out of poverty. This "how can the poverty level be down when you're giving subsidies" ignores the fact that subsidies are a widely used poverty-alleviating mechanism.

Added - in case the point wasn't clear --
A is poor, then receives a subsidy and it turns out A is no longer poor.
B is poor, then receives a subsidy, but might still remain poor, because B was in a really dire situation.
C is poor, receives no subsidy and remains poor.

[bala]

This is Raisina dialogue on funding for many projects under the garb democratic dollars and can the planet reclaim bretton woods. There are multiple new demands on its capacity, from energy transition to adaptation finance to debt restructuring. Major economies harmonise their economic approach with industrialisation and geopolitical aims. Much of the funding comes from pension funds, insurance funds and sometime guarantees from behemoth nations with clout.

Speakers:

N.K. Singh, Chairperson of Fifteenth Finance Commission; Co-Convenor, Expert Group on MDB Reforms, India

Tadashi Maeda, Chairman of the Board, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, Japan

Jayant Sinha, Member of Parliament, India

Osamu Yamamoto, Chief Executive Officer, Unison Capital Management Pte. Ltd., Japan

Divyata Ashiya, Trustee, RUSI, United Kingdom

Moderator:

Camilla Fenning, Programme Lead, E3G, United Kingdom


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Swbt_6K3vtc

// Maybe someone who knows economic nuances can comment upon the topic.

[VinodTK]

India's GDP grew by 8.4 per cent in December quarter: Govt data

[Cyrano]

Travelled extensively across North India and in TS & AP through big/smaller cities and pilgrimage sites this month.
Marked reduction, almost total absence of begging on streets in most places visited.

Even the poorest were trying to make a living, something is working damn right well now.

This alone made my heart fill with joy and made the trip worthwhile.

Real economic activity and growth of Bharat is IMHO significantly underreported.

Total opposite of Chinese data coming out of Emperor 11's Musharraf.

[hgupta]

Travelled extensively across North India and in TS & AP through big/smaller cities and pilgrimage sites this month.
Marked reduction, almost total absence of begging on streets in most places visited.

Even the poorest were trying to make a living, something is working damn right well now.

This alone made my heart fill with joy and made the trip worthwhile.

Real economic activity and growth of Bharat is IMHO significantly underreported.

Total opposite of Chinese data coming out of Emperor 11's Musharraf.

I saw the same thing. However the quality of air has worsened a lot. It caused me a lot of issues with my breathing and allergies. I was coughing nonstop the whole time I was there.

[JTull]

Travelled extensively across North India and in TS & AP through big/smaller cities and pilgrimage sites this month.
Marked reduction, almost total absence of begging on streets in most places visited.

Even the poorest were trying to make a living, something is working damn right well now.

This alone made my heart fill with joy and made the trip worthwhile.

Real economic activity and growth of Bharat is IMHO significantly underreported.

Total opposite of Chinese data coming out of Emperor 11's Musharraf.

I saw the same thing. However the quality of air has worsened a lot. It caused me a lot of issues with my breathing and allergies. I was coughing nonstop the whole time I was there.

Which months did you both travel? Pareli pollution is a problem for 2-3 months which started 8-9 years ago. Fog during winter months has been there for as long as I can remember.

[KL Dubey]

^^ Also, the entire urban landscape of Bharat is seeing huge construction activity. Everything from flyovers, metros, office buildings/parks, to high-rise "chicken coops". Air quality may suffer until the dust settles.

[vsunder]

^^^ Extreme poverty has been eliminated in India. Report by the Brookings Institution:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/indi ... e-poverty/

[hgupta]

I saw the same thing. However the quality of air has worsened a lot. It caused me a lot of issues with my breathing and allergies. I was coughing nonstop the whole time I was there.

Which months did you both travel? Pareli pollution is a problem for 2-3 months which started 8-9 years ago. Fog during winter months has been there for as long as I can remember.

Last month - February

[Atmavik]

i spent a moth in India in DEC and AQI was decent. i traveled to LKO, Ayodhya,Rajasthan and have a home in HYD. in HYD i traveled mostly by metro and i think that helped a lot

[A_Gupta]

^^^ Extreme poverty has been eliminated in India. Report by the Brookings Institution:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/indi ... e-poverty/

From there:

Inequality: An unprecedented decline in both urban and rural inequality. The urban Gini (x100) declined from 36.7 to 31.9; the rural Gini declined from 28.7 to 27.0. In the annals of inequality analysis, this decline is unheard of, and especially in the context of high per capita growth.

This is truly an achievement.

Poverty: High growth and large decline in inequality have combined to eliminate poverty in India for the PPP$ 1.9 poverty line. (Here we use the PPP$ 1.9 line [2011 prices] rather than the PPP$ 2.15 line at 2017 prices because the former closely corresponds to the official India Tendulkar poverty line.) The Headcount Poverty Ratio (HCR) for the 2011 PPP$ 1.9 poverty line has declined from 12.2 per cent in 2011-12 to 2 per cent in 2022-23, equivalent to 0.93 percentage points (ppt) per year. Rural poverty stood at 2.5% while urban poverty was down to 1%. For the PPP$ 3.2 line, HCR declined from 53.6% to 20.8% (almost 3 ppt per year). Note that these estimates do not take into account the free food (wheat and rice) supplied by the government to approximately two-thirds of the population, nor utilization of public health and education.

Emphasis added.

The relatively higher consumption growth in rural areas should not come as a surprise given the strong policy thrust on redistribution through a wide variety of publicly funded programs. These include a national mission for construction of toilets and attempts to ensure universal access to electricity, modern cooking fuel, and more recently, piped water. As an example, rural access to piped water in India as of 15th August 2019 was 16.8% and at present it is 74.7%. The reduced sickness from accessing safe water may have helped families earn more income. Similarly, under the Aspirational District Program, 112 districts of the country were identified as having the lowest development indicators. These districts were targeted by government policies with an explicit focus on improving their performance in development.

This is, in a sense, a realization of the Leftist ideal programs, on which however Leftists could never deliver. However, put all that aside. The great alleviation of the misery of extreme poverty for so many is to be celebrated. Now for the next steps...

[Cyrano]

The focus on job creation is not the solution for further poverty alleviation, it will never be never enough nor will it lead to prosperity.

Entrepreneurship is. Now that we have experimented with Mudra loans and it works, time to scale it up 10x, even 100x and monitor closely against misuse.

Over the years this will reduce the burden of direct transfers and lead to sustained economic activity by self employment.

[JTull]

Self employment is also job creation. Poverty alleviation needs a multi-pronged approach and goes beyond just two-times a day food. Modiji has made living with dignity a critical requirement. Empowerment with local self-employment is key to preventing mass migration to urban centres. This also reduces other problems with high demand for govt/public-sector jobs, job provision related corruption, exam paper leaks, etc

[chetak]

It's no wonder that the soresaas owned clown RRR is so desperate to claw his way back into the Indian political/financial ecosystem




An insider from BlackRock told that Deep State Cabal has positioned 189 bankers into different central banks, IMF, WB, FED to furnish their globalist agenda

And one person out of those 189 is Raghuram Rajan (watch' between 4:30 - 4:50)

Yes RRR is a Deep State agent

N UPA govt made him chairman of RBI

Who was running India during 2004-14 ?

Congress led UPA or Deep State ?


The video is 9:58 minutes long



WATCH VIDEO

[bala]

Chetak Saar, all the rats are being outed by the global internet vaasis. RRR is confirmed agent, like we have had many throughout history - NeverWho, Gandhi Atma, etc.

[S_Madhukar]

So gurus where does that leave us with our desi Lady GaGa in the Eye EM Eff , is she RRR version 2 or part of the next new deep state that wants to co-opt Bharat into the new world ?

The gentleman in the video is part of an entire gang that used to be on RT channel post GFC urging use of BTC and gold instead of Lincolns. I wonder if they are part of the new solution or new problem that we will be seeing. Too many conspiracy theorists floating around but I am convinced something is up once that Mexico border was opened up !

[A_Gupta]

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2010080

India, endowed with the fifth-largest coal reserves globally, stands as the second-largest consumer of coal, propelled by a fast-growing economy. The power sector alone is experiencing a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 7.5 % from FY 2021-22 to 2023-24 while other sectors exhibit similar momentum, driving the demand for coal.

In overall coal consumption spectrum, the unavailability of Coking coal and high-grade thermal coal within our reserves necessitates imports to meet the requirements of industries like steel etc. However, medium and low-grade thermal coal are abundantly available domestically, making it imperative for the country to sufficiently produce to fulfill domestic demand.

Over the past decade, concerted efforts to bolster coal production have yielded a positive trend. Notably, from 2004 to 2014, the CAGR of imported coal's share in the total consumption basket stood at 13.71%. Contrastingly, from 2014 to 2024, this figure plummeted to around -2.7%. The trend of coal imports over the past five years (excluding imports for imported coal-based thermal power plants), reveals a decline in the share of imported coal in the total consumption, showcasing a reduction from 21.05% in the previous fiscal year (Apr-Dec) to 19.38% in the corresponding period of the current fiscal year. This reduction translates to significant forex savings amounting to around Rs. 82264 crores.

[sanjaykumar]

That is a good question S_madhukar.

All I can say is if add does Hgy then it would be GCF

[bala]

Dr Ankit Shah • Deep State's Dilemma: Transaction Tax to negate Wokeism; Why 1 USD will be 3 INR
in namma Bengaluru

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9t7zIZm7xVA

Deep State needs a stable country to maximize its profits, yet it works to destabilize India. Why this conflict? Will Transaction Tax get rid of Wokeism? How will the mighty US Dollar fall to 3 Indian Rupees? CBDC - central bank digital currency uncovered.
500 rupee note will be withdrawn by the center after the withdrawal of 2000 rupee note (which bankrupted the neighbor nation).
Around 30% of worldwide trade occuring in non-dollar terms. Sri Lanka is using Indian tourist rupee money to get stuff from India. Goods produced in the world will not be cheap like those from China. Major adjustments are coming in the trading world. AI is going to be disruptive, already Google is on a layoff spree. China is facing real estate crisis, employment crisis, empty airports, migration back into villages, -ve FDI flow (i.e. outward flow of money from china), and more.

Q: is it good time for those with US dollars to convert to rupees (at 80+) now? Around 4 million indian diaspora with say average net worth of 0.25-0.5 million that would be 1-2 T!

[morem]

I find him a little extreme and fixated on two things, temple economy and dedollarization. He cannot not bring this into every conversation.

[vcsekhar]

Q: is it good time for those with US dollars to convert to rupees (at 80+) now? Around 4 million indian diaspora with say average net worth of 0.25-0.5 million that would be 1-2 T!

If this happens the entire export economy of the country will collapse. All our costs are in INR and the cost structure is built upon the Rs.75+/$ so we will be completely noncompetitive in the global economy.
These numbers are some fantasy in the OP's mind. Nothing like this is ever going to happen.

[srin]

Great report on macro picture of Indian economy: Indus Valley annual report by Blume Ventures

[A_Gupta]

> Q: is it good time for those with US dollars to convert to rupees (at 80+) now?

Only to buy something from India - whether it is consumable goods or stocks and bonds, or to fund social service organizations, or to visit and spend in India, or for family members in India to spend. Do not convert to simply hold rupees. i.e., do contribute to economic activity.

[sanjaykumar]

That net worth sum of the diaspora is exactly what I have estimated it.

This group is wealthier than most countries.

I believe that is why they don’t get too excited by CAIR or Sikh activities.

[A_Gupta]

Satellite based estimates of India's built-up area growth.
https://youtu.be/n0nlcybzzEU?si=6J8CTPlPdCOldp9m

--
Paper:
https://eacpm.gov.in/wp-content/uploads ... -Paper.pdf

[drnayar]

https://on.ft.com/3wKXIxQ
Hedge funds are threatening to pull investments from India because of controversial new rules introduced in response to last year’s short seller attack on Adani, one of the country’s biggest companies.

[Lisa]

FT = Scare stories. Go leave, leave now. I dare them! Wishing all them good tidings in finding better markets.

[A_Gupta]

Is there any discussion of what the new rules on short selling are?

[A_Gupta]

"Four European countries just signed a free-trade agreement with India—and committed to invest $100 billion"

India signed a trade agreement with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland on Sunday that includes a commitment of $100 billion investment and creating 1 million direct jobs in India in the next 15 years, officials said.

India on its part committed to reducing import tariffs on industrial products from the four European countries that comprise the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA.

“The landmark agreement between India and EFTA is set to bring significant economic benefits, such as better integrated and more resilient supply chains, new opportunities for businesses and individuals on both sides leading to increased trade and investment flows, job creation, and economic growth,” an EFTA communique said.

India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India for the first time had signed an agreement with an important economic bloc in Europe. India is also working on trade pacts with Britain and the European Union.

https://fortune.com/2024/03/10/india-ef ... agreement/

[Dilbu]

Is there any discussion of what the new rules on short selling are?

Sebi tightens short selling rules

In a circular issued Sebi made it mandatory for institutional investors to disclose upfront at the time of placement of order whether the transaction is a short sale. Retail investors on the other hand will have to make a similar disclosure by the end of the trading hours on transaction day. Additionally, Sebi has made it mandatory for brokers to collect the details on scrip-wise short sell positions. They will also have to collate the data and upload it to the stock exchanges before the commencement of trading on the following trading day.

"The stock exchanges shall then consolidate such information and disseminate the same on their websites for the information of the public on a weekly basis. The frequency of such disclosure may be reviewed from time to time with the approval of SEBI." Sebi said in the circular.

[A_Gupta]

How does this help with a Hindenburg-like situation?

[vijayk]

[fanne]

I think one of the most potent (but will be opposed very hard) restriction could be, you can only short sell when you have direct interest in that company. Meaning you are short selling to cover your risk. Now you can trade that and the person holding that short can also trade. But you cannot be a random person/company simply short selling it. It is pure speculation, just like gambling. Only people with deep connection use it to get rich and screw companies/countries.
For more maculay putras or western inspired brown sahibs, US has been banning shortsells, it has done as recently as 2008.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/s ... ng-ban.asp

[chetak]

"Four European countries just signed a free-trade agreement with India—and committed to invest $100 billion"

India signed a trade agreement with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland on Sunday that includes a commitment of $100 billion investment and creating 1 million direct jobs in India in the next 15 years, officials said.

India on its part committed to reducing import tariffs on industrial products from the four European countries that comprise the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA.

“The landmark agreement between India and EFTA is set to bring significant economic benefits, such as better integrated and more resilient supply chains, new opportunities for businesses and individuals on both sides leading to increased trade and investment flows, job creation, and economic growth,” an EFTA communique said.

India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India for the first time had signed an agreement with an important economic bloc in Europe. India is also working on trade pacts with Britain and the European Union.

https://fortune.com/2024/03/10/india-ef ... agreement/

Gupta ji,


scandinavian countries are the bad apples in this basket. The ones who played dirty with India at the time were norway, sweden, finland, denmark, and iceland, some more than others .....

they are a very vocal and aggressive part of the BIF and have been rabidly anti India for the past several decades

deal or no deal, we need to keep a very wary eye out for these snakes and proceed with caution.....

[bala]

chetak saar,

I have talked about Europe's Pagan Past in another thread.

Here are some sites.

1. Artic Henge, Iceland - Surya site and now a site for revival of pagans in Europe
2. Newgrange, Ireland - circular site dated very old and has swastika, bell, etc.
3. Stonehenge, Salisbury - 27 nakshatras side
4. Almandras Portugal - vastu purush in stone
5. Les Saintes Maries de la Mer in the Camargue, South of France - Roma were able to worship Kali Sara

Bharat should push for the rights of these people to exercise their freedom to worship what their forebears worshipped in Europe. Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland should honor and reclaim their past history. With Yoga overtaking the world (even nations like Saudi A are into it wholeheartedly) I think foreign policy of Bharat is to reinforce these ancient cultural past to the fullest. Any move by the Pope/Church must be blunted in this effort.

[A_Gupta]

@fanne I just want to understand the "physics" of the regulation - how does it protect against bad behavior?

Added: thanks for the link. The US adopted short selling disclosure rules only in October 2023; ( https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-221 ) but the European Union had them since 2012. The headline story "Hedge funds threaten to withdraw...." is thus one of those seeking to manipulate India.

[Cyrano]

EFTA deal :
Norway has oil and HUGE sovereign wealth fund, tiny Lichtenstein has power tools, Suisse has chocolate which they rip off from poor African countries using modern day slavery and sell to the world with fat margins. Besides Bjork I can't think of anything we can import from Iceland.

Suisse also has quite a few precision engineering CNC equipment makers, niche chemical and Pharma industries and tons of I'll gotten wealth parked in it's banks, that are of interest.

These countries are so small markets with rich consumers that any food or consumer goods exports won't be relevant for us.

So besides getting FDI, few niche areas, and scoring some geopolitical points, there is nothing else in this deal.

Anyone else who has a better view please enlighten us

[bala]

Chairman Adani Group, Gautam Adani shares his journey and success mantra

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5kdPBj7ZPA

He talks about the Hindeburg attack on Adani - a coordinated attack on a corporation and a political attack on India by the BIFs, Soreasses, deep state.

Dharavi development is also discussed. I remember a few decades back Sonia objected to redevelopment of dharavi otherwise we wouldn't have had the Britshit version of Slumdog Millionaire. The Britshits committed the world largest holocaust (200 million dead in famines, wars, outright shooting) and emptying the wealth of the richest nation on earth Bharat from 30% of world GDP to less than 1%.

[A_Gupta]

"Specifically, the Indian government foresees increased exports of pharmaceuticals, garments, chemicals and machinery to EFTA members, and it hopes to attract investments in automobiles, food processing, railways and the financial sector."

"Currently, India stands as the EFTA’s fifth-largest trading partner, with a bilateral trade volume of $25 billion in 2023. Exports to the EFTA amounted to $2.8 billion, while imports reached approximately $22 billion during the same period."

{somewhat conflicting numbers} : "India's exports to EFTA nations during 2022-2033 stood at $1.92 billion against $1.74 billion in 2021-2022. Imports aggregated at $16.74 billion during the last financial year as opposed to $25.5 billion in 2021-2022, leaving a trade deficit of $14.8 billion."

"EFTA is India's 9th largest trading partner, accounting for about 2.5% of India's total merchandise trade in 2020-21."

"EFTA is offering 92.2% of its tariff lines which covers 99.6% of India’s exports. The EFTA’s market access offer covers 100% of non-agri products and tariff concession on Processed Agricultural Products (PAP).

India is offering 82.7% of its tariff lines which covers 95.3% of EFTA exports of which more than 80% import is Gold. The effective duty on Gold remains untouched.Sensitivity related to PLI in sectors such as pharma, medical devices & processed food etc. have been taken while extending offers. Sectors such as dairy, soya, coal and sensitive agricultural products are kept in exclusion list.

India has offered 105 sub-sectors to the EFTA and secured commitments in 128 sub-sectors from Switzerland, 114 from Norway, 107 from Liechtenstein, and 110 from Iceland."

"TEPA has provisions for Mutual Recognition Agreements in Professional Services like nursing, chartered accountants, architects etc."

"TEPA provides an opportunity to integrate into EU markets. Over 40% of Switzerland’s global services exports are to the EU. Indian companies can look to Switzerland as a base for extending its market reach to EU."

"Over 300 Swiss companies, including major players like Nestle, Holcim, Sulzer, Novartis, and leading banks such as UBS, operate in India. Simultaneously, Indian IT giants like TCS, Infosys, and HCL have a notable presence in Switzerland."