Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 26 Nov 2023 00:36

^ if anything the gdp is underestimated .

bala · Post by **bala** » 26 Nov 2023 07:04

the surveys that estimate the unorganized sector

In the days of AADHAR and UPI, I don't know why we need to do surveys. Big Data processing can zero in on the most accurate estimate. The Bharatiya Govt can do a better job at this than relying on outdated modes and assumptions.

Indian GDP is purposely underestimated. Why is the PPP much higher than the nominal? Reason: severe underestimation. Goods/services are reported way less than actual value. Other nations have up'ed their base for economics, yet India uses some ancient base. Countries like China are into Shanghai statisitics, many have pointed out that china overboosts things and actuals could be around 1/2 of the reported 17T for its GDP. In this year there is severe impact to the Chinese GDP. I also heard via PGURUs channel that they print 5-6x for each serial number of currency.

Once manufacturing gets deeply embedded in the nation over the next few years, Bharat is truly #3 and will eventually overtake China. This was predicted some 10 yrs ago in the Singapore economic summit and most people discounted such a turn of economies. But the predictions are right on course.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 26 Nov 2023 16:38

There is no advantage for India to overestimate GDP if the portion that's missed out doesn't contribute to the govt kitty. And there lies the answer. Govt will target all areas wherever it believes it is missing out. UPI and GST are just the digital tools to find all these holes. And unorganised sector is being ruthlessly hunted!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Nov 2023 21:18

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 27 Nov 2023 22:31

The gist of the video is that IIP data collection methodology is not fit for the purpose.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 28 Nov 2023 22:43

https://twitter.com/IndianTechGuide/sta ... 9073931652
India to get at least 3 more semiconductor fab units in the next few months with investments in line of $8-12 billion - IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 30 Nov 2023 19:02

India GDP growth in Q2 FY24 beats estimates at 7.6%

India’s GDP growth for the second quarter of the current financial year 2023-24 came in at a much better than expected number of 7.6%, much higher than 6.2% in the second quarter of the previous fiscal year. Most analysts were expecting the Q2 GDP growth data to moderate to around 6.8%. The 7.6% GDP growth is a slight moderation from the 7.8% GDP growth witnessed in the first quarter of FY24.

The Indian economy has also managed to retain its tag of being the fastest growing major economy in the world. India’s real GDP attained a level of Rs 41.74 lakh crore in Q2 of 2023-24 as against Rs 38.78 lakh crore in the second quarter of 2022-23. The nominal GDP is estimated at Rs 71.66 lakh crore in Q2 FY24 as against Rs 65.67 lakh crore in Q2 2022-23. This is a growth of 9.1% as compared to 17.2% in Q2 2022-23.
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Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Dec 2023 00:50

Official MOSPI Report on Q2 GDP growth (pdf)

Some observations:
* Investment/GDP as denoted by gross fixed capital formation is once again over 35% after many years: 35.3% in Q2 (Page 2, Stmt 2, Row 3).
* For the full first half, the investment/GDP is a solid 35% (Page 6, Stmt 6, Row 3)
* Manufacturing is picking up strongly, up nearly 10% in H1 this year (Page 6, Stmt 5, Row 3)
* Manufacturing is supported by corresponding sharp acceleration in mining and construction (Page 5, stmt 3)
* The relation between private consumption, govt spending and investment has shifted in favor of investment, with both private consumption and govt spending falling.

The most recent IIP data (pdf) (page 3) also demonstrates the strong trend particularly in electricity and manufacturing, vs prior year monthly indices. The index for electricity is 200+ for 5 months in a row, and for manufacturing 140+ for that long, far in excess of the prior fiscal year.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 02 Dec 2023 08:01

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 03 Dec 2023 06:16

^^^ "The farm sector grew by a tepid 1.2% year-on-year"

Does not bode well for rural happiness.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 03 Dec 2023 20:12

Suraj wrote: ↑01 Dec 2023 00:50 Official MOSPI Report on Q2 GDP growth (pdf)

Why are they still following the 2011-12 base year? I would have thought it would be something more recent.

VishnuS · Post by **VishnuS** » 04 Dec 2023 12:25

Mort Walker wrote: ↑03 Dec 2023 20:12
Suraj wrote: ↑01 Dec 2023 00:50 Official MOSPI Report on Q2 GDP growth (pdf)

Why are they still following the 2011-12 base year? I would have thought it would be something more recent.

It was supposed to happen in 2021-22, But Corona ****** Everything.

It took us 2023 for all the sectors to recover completely. This is not the appropriate year to do the calculation as it takes 1 year to complete and the results will be published just before 24 GE. So, obviously Oppn. will question the authenticity, moreover, elections also add excessive spending, which is not good. If my guess is correct, then we might have it in 2025, along with a myriad of other surveys to update our numbers. I also expect Oppn. to make ruckus about the sudden change in stats of many reports like Hunger Index.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 04 Dec 2023 20:09

Leaving the base year and ours methodology to UPA era is the best way to answer accusations of doctoring data.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 Dec 2023 19:00

from a sri lankan newspaper

The US govt concluded that Hindenburg Research’s allegations of corporate fraud against the Adani group weren’t relevant before extending a $553 million loan for a container terminal in Sri Lanka

US examined Hindenburg allegations before giving loan to Adani

https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-new ... 108-272590

US, Dec 5 (Bloomberg) - The US government concluded that short-seller Hindenburg Research’s allegations of corporate fraud against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani weren’t relevant before extending his conglomerate as much as $553 million for a container terminal in Sri Lanka, a senior US official said.

Allegations in a scathing report by US-based Hindenburg Research, which erased around $100 billion from the Adani Group’s market value earlier this year, were front and center as the International Development Finance Corp., or DFC, conducted a due diligence investigation of the conglomerate, an official from the US agency told Bloomberg.

The DFC was satisfied that the accusations in the short-seller’s report, which said Adani was pulling off “the largest con in corporate history,” weren’t applicable to Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd., the subsidiary spearheading the Sri Lankan project, the DFC official said, declining to be named to detail the negotiations.

The US agency will also continue to monitor the Indian firm to ensure the US government doesn’t unintentionally support financial misconduct or other inappropriate behavior, the official said, noting that it’s critical that the US approaches infrastructure projects differently than China.

The Sri Lankan port deal involving Adani marks one of the biggest and most prominent US government-backed infrastructure projects in Asia. It comes after years of American efforts to counter growing Chinese influence in the region as a result of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative to build infrastructure around the globe.

The Adani Group has denied the allegations featured in the Hindenburg report, including stock-price manipulation. Formal regulatory inquiries and court hearings into the issue in India haven’t uncovered any wrongdoing. Adani stocks have rallied of late, and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd. has gained 7.4% so far this year.

The Adani Group, which has attracted controversy for its giant Australia coal mine and for the billionaire’s perceived closeness with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has touted the DFC’s investment as a vote of confidence following the Hindenburg allegations.

“We see this as a reaffirmation by the international community of our vision, our capabilities and our governance,” Karan Adani, the tycoon’s son and chief executive officer at Adani Ports, told reporters in Colombo when the deal was announced.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 06 Dec 2023 19:42

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 06 Dec 2023 22:34

A_Gupta wrote: ↑03 Dec 2023 06:16 ^^^ "The farm sector grew by a tepid 1.2% year-on-year"

Does not bode well for rural happiness.

The largest part of rural GDP is tertiary services and not the primary agricultural sector. Agriculture is also no longer the largest source of rural employment anymore. The GDP growth numbers are a little odd given the actual output growth seen, and I have no immediate insight into why they differ.

Mort Walker wrote: ↑03 Dec 2023 20:12
Suraj wrote: ↑01 Dec 2023 00:50 Official MOSPI Report on Q2 GDP growth (pdf)

Why are they still following the 2011-12 base year? I would have thought it would be something more recent.

You've been around long enough to know we've been doing rudaali about this since back when the base year was 1993-94, Mortullah. I gave up

about it years ago.

Thanks for posting the Surjit Bhalla article, vijayk. Was going to post saying he's echoing my statements about investment/GDP.

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 07 Dec 2023 01:25

Just a question here for anyone who can assist.

I am visiting India again in October 2024.
One of the things I will be doing is assisting a nephew of mine to purchase an electric rickshaw.
I will be loaning him the money, because I do not want him dealing with loan sharks and just want to assist his family out of poverty.

What is the cost of these ? where in Punjab are they sold, are the batteries reliable and what sort of costs are involved ?

Appreciate any advise thank you

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 07 Dec 2023 03:10

Haresh wrote: ↑07 Dec 2023 01:25 Just a question here for anyone who can assist.

I am visiting India again in October 2024.
One of the things I will be doing is assisting a nephew of mine to purchase an electric rickshaw.
I will be loaning him the money, because I do not want him dealing with loan sharks and just want to assist his family out of poverty.

What is the cost of these ? where in Punjab are they sold, are the batteries reliable and what sort of costs are involved ?

Appreciate any advise thank you

Cost is about Rs 1-1.3 lakhs depending on the exact type and the battery (acid versus lithium).

Public sector banks like Punjab Natl Bank offer e-rickshaw financing: https://www.pnbindia.in/downloadprocess ... NEg8vpAw==

Not sure if they are "loan sharks".

The above document says the financing covers most of the costs of battery replacement for the first two years. Lead acid batteries typically last 2-3 years or so, lithium ones will last much longer but cost more.

Kudos to you for helping out!

PS: Google is a good friend

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 07 Dec 2023 15:56

KL Dubey wrote: ↑07 Dec 2023 03:10
Haresh wrote: ↑07 Dec 2023 01:25 Just a question here for anyone who can assist.

I am visiting India again in October 2024.
One of the things I will be doing is assisting a nephew of mine to purchase an electric rickshaw.
I will be loaning him the money, because I do not want him dealing with loan sharks and just want to assist his family out of poverty.

What is the cost of these ? where in Punjab are they sold, are the batteries reliable and what sort of costs are involved ?

Appreciate any advise thank you
Cost is about Rs 1-1.3 lakhs depending on the exact type and the battery (acid versus lithium).

Public sector banks like Punjab Natl Bank offer e-rickshaw financing: https://www.pnbindia.in/downloadprocess ... NEg8vpAw==

Not sure if they are "loan sharks".

The above document says the financing covers most of the costs of battery replacement for the first two years. Lead acid batteries typically last 2-3 years or so, lithium ones will last much longer but cost more.

Kudos to you for helping out!

PS: Google is a good friend

Thank You, yes I know Google is a friend, however I am in London, just needed some real local knowledge.
The other thing I intend to do is organise some skills training, for the ladies as well as the young men. For the ladies I was thinking thinking, dress making, phulkari, jewelry making. The intention is to get a group of about five ladies trained in these skills, so they can pass these skills onto others who can't afford the training. With regards to the young men, I was thinking tech training from the local Industrial training Institutes, does anyone have any experience of these ?
The purpose is to skill them, get them off the land and out of poverty. They always ask me if I can help the immigrate, I can't.

Any thoughts ?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 07 Dec 2023 18:26

Rural economy info:
Rural demand revival: What new data tells us
https://www.livemint.com/economy/rural- ... 55203.html
Rural demand accounts for a third of consumer goods companies’ revenues, indicating the state of the rural economy

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 07 Dec 2023 18:50

Haresh wrote: ↑07 Dec 2023 15:56 Thank You, yes I know Google is a friend, however I am in London, just needed some real local knowledge.
The other thing I intend to do is organise some skills training, for the ladies as well as the young men. For the ladies I was thinking thinking, dress making, phulkari, jewelry making. The intention is to get a group of about five ladies trained in these skills, so they can pass these skills onto others who can't afford the training. With regards to the young men, I was thinking tech training from the local Industrial training Institutes, does anyone have any experience of these ?
The purpose is to skill them, get them off the land and out of poverty. They always ask me if I can help the immigrate, I can't.

You have to spend a good chunk of time in Bharat to figure out what you can do in your local area. These things are impossible to do otherwise. Often the best option is to identify a few good NGOs and donate to their efforts instead of reinventing the wheel. Or to goremint/PM directly. I donate to Hindu organizations and receive regular reports on their activities, as well to PM fund directly.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 07 Dec 2023 22:57

bala · Post by **bala** » 08 Dec 2023 02:43

^^^^^
In the Mantriji Ashwini Vaishnaw interview above, the reporter/interviewer does not ask proper in-depth questions. Manufacturing being assembly in India or screwdrivergiri was the point raised by RR on behalf of Soros/Deep State actors. In the iPhone example, the main components besides the casing, which does not cost much, are the CPU, oled display, battery, communication chips, glass with touch sensing, camera and so on. These are supplied by vendors in S. Korea, Taiwan and Japan and are the major costs for the iphone manufacture. The vendors are yet to relocate their manufacturing into India. Samsung's factory for LED manufacture was stolen by the Chinese in toto and the chinese started LED display manufacturing under their own brands. Indian brands need to be established to get into the global supply chain. Very few of them exists in other areas like automobiles, etc. With Semiconductor PLI etc we have to wait for high end chip manufacture within India. Display/cameras/touch sensing all need to be worked upon. Numbers reported by mantriji are a good start but India needs to aim for 10x the numbers for India to be considered a global leader.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 Dec 2023 06:46

FM Chidambaram Vs FM Sitharaman

Infra spending
2009-14 - ₹1.57 Lakh Cr
2019-24 - ₹33.3 Lakh Cr

Wealth Created
2009-2014 - ₹ 13 Lakh Cr
2019-2023 - ₹ 250 Lakh Cr

Forex Addition
2009-14 $50 B
2019-23 $225 B

GDP Rank
2014- 10th
2023- 5th

Bank NPA
2014- 11%
2023- 1%

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 08 Dec 2023 17:46

KL Dubey wrote: ↑07 Dec 2023 18:50

You have to spend a good chunk of time in Bharat to figure out what you can do in your local area. These things are impossible to do otherwise. Often the best option is to identify a few good NGOs and donate to their efforts instead of reinventing the wheel. Or to goremint/PM directly. I donate to Hindu organizations and receive regular reports on their activities, as well to PM fund directly.
[/quote]

I appreciate that, nothing much seems to happen in rural India. My cousins are in a tight situation, infact the entire village is. They have the xtian nutcases promising them visas if they convert, people just abandoning their homes and leaving and peacefuls from UP/Bihar/beggerdesh taking over abandoned homes.
No one cares, not the SGPC, Arya Samaj, no one

I will be visiting for 6-8 weeks. so have some ideas.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 Dec 2023 20:43

Betting Against Modi Wave? How Stock Market Bears Burnt Their Fingers

https://www.businessworld.in/article/Be ... 23-501429/

Foreign portfolio investors yet again failed to gain from their bearish bets on the Indian markets for the third time this year; instead had to rush to cover their short positions as the Modi wave remained as strong as 2015 and the mood of the nation indicated a thumping majority to BJP in 2024 national elections

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 Dec 2023 22:59

VishnuS · Post by **VishnuS** » 09 Dec 2023 12:31

Haresh wrote: ↑07 Dec 2023 01:25 Just a question here for anyone who can assist.

I am visiting India again in October 2024.
One of the things I will be doing is assisting a nephew of mine to purchase an electric rickshaw.
I will be loaning him the money, because I do not want him dealing with loan sharks and just want to assist his family out of poverty.

What is the cost of these ? where in Punjab are they sold, are the batteries reliable and what sort of costs are involved ?

Appreciate any advise thank you

Kudos to you for helping your relatives.

Fortunately, I had a chance to talk to drivers of two different E- Rickshaws. One is from Piaggio and the other is from Mahindra.

Both give a range of roughly 100 to 110Km. Piaggio (5L on road price) seems to be built to last, metal body, safe battery position. Mahindra's vehicle is cheaper (over 3L), built on fiber body, battery is under the driver. These are Li ion batteries. They look like regular auto rickshaw,

unlike the E rickshaws we see in Punjab/Delhi. PS. Both the drivers are happy with their investments as the savings on fuel and maintenance alone amount to 20K/m.

My conversations happened right after Ganesh Chaturthi. I'd suggest you/ nephew to talk to the drivers and then come to a conclusion.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 10 Dec 2023 10:22

chetak wrote: ↑08 Dec 2023 20:43 Betting Against Modi Wave? How Stock Market Bears Burnt Their Fingers

https://www.businessworld.in/article/Be ... 23-501429/

Foreign portfolio investors yet again failed to gain from their bearish bets on the Indian markets for the third time this year; instead had to rush to cover their short positions as the Modi wave remained as strong as 2015 and the mood of the nation indicated a thumping majority to BJP in 2024 national elections

There should be a financial instrument that helps the retail investor bet against these douche-bag funds, DEI funds etc. Make money while they virtue-signal on their downward spiral

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Dec 2023 22:09

This ought to bring in a nice chunk of change and hopefully, it also may be the start of a nice trend of building commercial ships for export markets......

On October 26, Indian government-owned Goa Shipyard signed a substantial shipbuilding contract with Russia. The agreement calls for Goa to construct 24 river-sea class cargo ships for Russian clients in the Caspian Sea by 2027.

https://maritime-executive.com/article/ ... for-russia

(Goa Shipyard file photo)

India to Build 24 Cargo Ships for Russia

Goa Shipyard Russia looks to employ India's state-owned Goa Shipyard to build vessels for the Caspain Sea route

PUBLISHED NOV 3, 2023 9:45 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

India is reportedly in a deal to build 24 river-sea class cargo ships for Russia by 2027, as Russia continues to seek new outlets to support its struggling shipbuilding industry. With Russia facing numerous economic sanctions from the West due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, its shipbuilding sector has taken a major hit. This is forcing Russia to seek partnerships with other shipbuilding nations to keep up with ship orders.

The latest development appears to be an agreement with India and its state-owned Goa shipyard. Separately the Indian government has declared its intent to expand its shipbuilding industry seeking to be a global player that is well-timed with Russia’s needs.

Dmitry Dubovik, director of the Caspian International North-South Integration Club, revealed the deal last week during the Astrakhan International Forum in Russia. The event brought together stakeholders involved in the development of the proposed International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). One objective of the route is to connect Russia and India via the Caspian Sea through Iran. Previously, Russia had detailed its plans to build containerships tailored to the route.

According to Dubovik, the plan is to build vessels as part of the effort to expand shipping on the Caspian Sea. The first four ships are to be launched in 2024, coming from the Goa Shipyard. They will include chemical carriers, bulk carriers, and containerships tailored to the service.

“The advantages of cooperation with India are that the cost will be lowered by almost half to that of Russian manufacturers,” he highlighted to the participants.

The project according to Dubovik’s statements at the conference will be financed by the Russian Agency for Export Credit and Investment Insurance (EXIAR), through the Russian Export Center (REC).

This deal comes months after India and Russia announced in May that they were working to conclude an intergovernmental agreement on shipbuilding and ship repair.

“I would like to suggest that Astrakhan-based companies consider the possibility of using their competencies and ship personnel at our shipyards in India,” said Pawan Kapur, the Indian ambassador to China, while on a visit to Astrakhan City at the time. “I am participating in negotiations with Russia’s United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC). We will see how these two interests can be combined."

Last week, USC’s new owner VTB Bank revealed that the company is seeking a partnership with China as it is the number one shipbuilder in the world. USC is Russia’s largest shipbuilder and owns several shipyards in the country including the Astrakhan Shipbuilding Production Association (ASPO). It has also been reported that Russia was seeking shipbuilding support from India and China for its lagging efforts to build ice-class shipping as it moves to expand shipping in the Arctic.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 11 Dec 2023 02:32

The Russians are going to use their money parked with India more than 20 billion. they need to get something for their moolah ..and this is just one venture. They will not be paying anything

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 11 Dec 2023 02:49

gakakkad wrote: ↑26 Nov 2023 00:36 ^ if anything the gdp is underestimated .

Agreed !
This year I was comparing prices in Mumbai.. Rs 700 for a 500g Nescafé and 1000 for 1 kg king mackerel (compare with local salmon)… compares very well in £ to UK supermarket prices (Unfortunately) Fast food Macs and the rest of branded processed foods are also pretty comparable… so no real price advantage except for veggies and fruits … but if our farmers don’t up their game expect these prices to go up as well. I wonder if people are being paid as well with inflation

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 11 Dec 2023 03:54

drnayar wrote: ↑11 Dec 2023 02:32 The Russians are going to use their money parked with India more than 20 billion. they need to get something for their moolah ..and this is just one venture. They will not be paying anything

What kind of maths brought you to this conclusion?

So, for the sake of equivalency, if RBI holds billions of $ in some Nostro accounts, then any Indian company can just point to these reserves and can take anything from US for free? Please illuminate us.

Najunamar · Post by **Najunamar** » 11 Dec 2023 04:16

I think DrNayarji’s point was this will not translate to an infusion of forex, it will be definitely showing in our GDP as it increases the eXport component - offsetting at least a good chunk of the oil Imports.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Dec 2023 07:13

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Dec 2023 18:58

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Dec 2023 19:08

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Dec 2023 19:33

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Dec 2023 19:35

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Dec 2023 16:46

Quality control orders are important. I think many previous govts have weakened the required institutions due to corruption and chalta hai attitudes. Good to see current GoI defending this. Will take some time to create a well oiled and efficient machine for this. EU does it very well, actually too well and is a bureaucratic nightmare, but no one is complaining.