Bharat Rakshak

Suraj wrote:

yensoy wrote:Can't compare the two. Army chiefs become chiefs at the fag end of their career, and then retire before slipping into oblivion (for the most part). Rajan is still in the prime of his professional life, and he is a professor. Expecting him to not talk or pontificate is an exercise in futility.

Agreed he needs to maintain professional discretion here, which includes not talking about sensitive matters he learnt in his professional capacity, and not speculating on matters related to the RBI.

They are absolutely comparable. It has nothing to do with the person's age or point of life. They serve at the pleasure of the Government of India. They themselves are insignificant, and derive all their 'face' from the power and prestige of the institution they serve. Maintaining decorum in order to maintain the power of institutions is far more important than any personal concern of theirs. The institutions are the foundation of our power, not these people themselves.

No high ranking public servant, particularly one appointed to a post entirely on the goodwill of the political leadership, has any business chasing microphones after his tenure. The man should go away, teach classes or write authoritatively researched papers, if he so cares about DeMo. But definitely not barking into camera mics. How many professors do that ? And what makes you think he's speaking in the capacity of a professor ? He's speaking as ex-RBI Governor. These are not people who are expected to behave like this. Every time he opens his mouth, he confirms his lack of maturity and proves GoI was right to politely decline him an extension. It is irrelevant whether he supports or opposes DeMo. He has no business chasing the camera in the first place.

rajan comes across as a well balanced person.

he has a chip on both shoulders.

most times, a la tharoor, mere shampoo, square jaw and a well groomed hairdo simply doesn't cut the mustard.

It appears Rajan is following the example of Ben Bernanke, former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, in criticizing the current economic setup. It is a partisan viewpoint and Rajan should simply stay quiet or give limited interviews where he stays circumspect. It appears both of these fellows are looking for entry into politics or a political position in government that they favor. Rajan is in his mid-50s and Bernanke is in his mid-60s. Both have time to fulfill political ambition.

Deleted . Please STOP talking politics here .

This is the nonsense we had when he left
https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.c ... nvestment/

Now

Rishi Bagree
@rishibagree
INR 3 yr high
Sensex New High
Record 60 Billion USD FDI
Forex Reserves at record High
India Fastest Growing Economy
Eco Will Grow Faster in coming Quarters

Wonder what happened to all those 100s of Billions $ that supposed to Exit after Raghuram Rajan exit

Good question we need to ask...

About a dozen posts have disappeared, because guess why ? Yes, they're all about politics.

From the RBI:
26 JAN 2018 PRESS RELEASE

Forex reserves are $414,784.5 million upto 19 JAN 2018. +$934.6 million from previous week.

Some forecasts have the USD to INR at $1 = Rs. 58.94 by JAN 2020.

Brent today is at $70 , Lets say average oil price is $60 for 2018 , How much does it impact our budget in terms of import ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Austin wrote:Brent today is at $70 , Lets say average oil price is $60 for 2018 , How much does it impact our budget in terms of import ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Every $10 per barrel rise in the price will worsen India’s fiscal balance by 0.1% and current account balance by 0.4% of GDP, according to Nomura report

Its a transient phenomenon though. The price rally has been sustained by coordinated OPEC-Russia cuts but at the cost of accelerating shale output as production at higher cost shale fields becomes economically viable. At $50/bl (WTI), its production goes up by 40% and at $60/bl it doubles.

As a result, the US' oil output is poised to hit a record level in 2018 breaking the previous record set in 1970.

We need to take all prediction of doom that comes from the so-called experts with a ton of salt. Particularly when our MSM reports that. I think what is needed for our economy is the creation of jobs. As long as that is being done we are good in the short and medium term.

Yagnasri wrote:We need to take all prediction of doom that comes from the so-called experts with a ton of salt. Particularly when our MSM reports that. I think what is needed for our economy is the creation of jobs. As long as that is being done we are good in the short and medium term.

Is it really true that jobs are not being created??

in any and every batch passing out of a college, anywhere in the country, some/many are finding employment. Its also true that some are not able to find jobs but in most cases, they just may not be employable in positions that they aspire to.

It maybe not be exactly what they expected or hoped for or even trained for. Others, who are inevitably left out, if ambitious enough or hungry enough will find jobs/openings in other avenues or they can choose to sit at home.

An MBA relative of mine (sadly) chooses to laze around at home in the US while his wife slaves away on a H1B visa. No amount of pushing, prodding, shaming has motivated him to get out and find himself a job. It was a love marriage and I wonder what that poor girl ever saw in this bleddy ass.

Ordinary courier delivery jobs are paying 20-22,000/per month, newly minted taxi drivers make much more than that, what with uber and ola looking for drivers and quite a few graduates opt for ola and uber.

BPOs and many small time IT companies pay the same as couriers get.

A growing economy needs all kinds of labor, not just fat cat IT honchos in cushy, plush offices.

Do any of you guys know many people who are not working?? I don't.

That is not to say that there is no problem at all, but certainly not as bad as is being portrayed, no??

The thing is the absence of hard data relating to jobs. On top of the thaught process that enterprise is by default crooked. That makes a lot of people dismiss the jobs being created in the informal sector.

As written by Dinesh Unni Krishnan in first post.

http://www.firstpost.com/business/budge ... 24577.html

Here's more proof (if any was needed) that the MSM always tries to portray things negatively. Few days ago, there was an Oxfam report that said that the top 1% in India have 73% of the total wealth. This was portrayed as a big example of income inequality and everybody went to town with this, including the Congress (President of which did not realise that the data pertained to the period when his party was in power).

Now, today's economic survey has shown that the top 1% of exporters from India have a share of only 38% of India's total exports. This concentration is much more diversified when compared to similar data from other countries, Brazil (72), Germany(68), Mexico(67), USA(55). For the top 5% of exporters as well, India shows much lesser concentration than these other countries. So if concentration of wealth is bad, then lesser concentration in exports should be good, right?

No, this is how the Economic Times portrays it: they say that there are no export superstars in India. There's just no pleasing these guys.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 694462.cms

Arvind Subramaniam on the just released Economic Survey 2018. Worth watching, useful presentation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuUHs1rIOPQ

Pratyush wrote:The thing is the absence of hard data relating to jobs. On top of the thaught process that enterprise is by default crooked. That makes a lot of people dismiss the jobs being created in the informal sector.

Hope you saw this saar:

‘Jobless Growth’ Is A Lie; India Is Generating More Formal Jobs Than What Has Been Reported Widely - Swarajya

It is important that the government has the correct picture of the job market. Incorrect data would inevitably lead to incorrect diagnoses and, in turn, to an incorrect prognosis. So far, we have been told that India has a job creation problem. But the latest study on payroll reporting by Pulak Ghosh, a professor at the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore, and Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India dispute the job figures emerging from the current processes, calling them misleading.

Contrary to popular perception, India may be creating enough formal, i.e., organised, sector jobs. The Ghose duo has studied and analysed members data from Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO), National Pension Scheme (NPS) and Employees' State Insurance Corporation (ESIC). According to EPFO data, which covers over 190 industries, 45 lakh new jobs were created in fiscal year 2017. In the current fiscal year, until November, 36.8 lakh new jobs were created, which, if the same rate of new payrolls is sustained, will translate to 55 lakh new jobs, an annual increment of a million jobs.{Seems to be a typo: should be 5.5 million jobs this year}

As many as 12 million people enter the job market in the country every year and many of them are not even skilled. If India is adding a million jobs yearly in the formal sector alone, more jobs are being created than the supply of total skilled workforce. This turns the whole narrative of a “lack of jobs” on its head.

The ESIC data shows six lakh new payrolls every month across 65 industries. The NPS data shows an addition of 50,000 subscribers every month.

Full article at the link.

Viv S wrote:

Austin wrote:Brent today is at $70 , Lets say average oil price is $60 for 2018 , How much does it impact our budget in terms of import ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Every $10 per barrel rise in the price will worsen India’s fiscal balance by 0.1% and current account balance by 0.4% of GDP, according to Nomura report

Its a transient phenomenon though. The price rally has been sustained by coordinated OPEC-Russia cuts but at the cost of accelerating shale output as production at higher cost shale fields becomes economically viable. At $50/bl (WTI), its production goes up by 40% and at $60/bl it doubles.

As a result, the US' oil output is poised to hit a record level in 2018 breaking the previous record set in 1970.

Probably the largest user of oil in India is Indian Railways. Read somewhere it is close 45-47%. Electrification of IR will help massively.

With strong push towards battery cars, we can reduce retails consumption.

So there are ways to reduce this deficit.

INDIA : ECONOMIC SURVEY 2017 - 2018

Volume I

State of the Economy: An Analytical Overview and Outlook for Policy

Chapter 2: A New, Exciting Bird’s-Eye View of the Indian Economy through the GST

Chapter 3: Investment and Saving Slowdowns and Recoveries: Cross-Country Insights for India

Chapter 4: Reconciling Fiscal Federalism and Accountability: Is there a Low Equilibrium Trap?

Chapter 5: Is there a “Late Converger Stall” in Economic Development? Can India Escape it?

Chapter 6: Climate, Climate Change, and Agriculture

Chapter 7: Gender and Son Meta-Preference: Is Development Itself an Antidote?

Chapter 8: Transforming Science and Technology in India

Chapter 9: Ease of Doing Business’ Next Frontier: Timely Justice

Volume II

Chapter 1: An Overview of India’s Economic Performance in 2017-18

Chapter 2: Review of Fiscal Developments

Chapter 3: Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation

Chapter 4: Prices and Inflation

Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Energy and Climate Change

Chapter 6: External Sector

Chapter 7: Agriculture and Food Management

Chapter 8: Industry and Infrastructure

Chapter 9: Services Sector

Chapter 10: Social Infrastructure, Employment and Human Development

Cheers

nam wrote: Probably the largest user of oil in India is Indian Railways. Read somewhere it is close 45-47%. Electrification of IR will help massively.

Not even close. It is 3.24% of the overall consumption; even buses consume in all nearly 3x as much and there are several even bigger consuming categories. See graphic at bottom of page 10 in http://ppac.org.in/WriteReadData/Report ... Diesel.pdf.

BTW note that the above percentage is for diesel alone. If you add all oils - petrol, kerosene (aviation fuel), furnace oil then that percentage will be microscopic.

Peregrine wrote:INDIA : ECONOMIC SURVEY 2017 - 2018

Volume I

State of the Economy: An Analytical Overview and Outlook for Policy

Chapter 2: A New, Exciting Bird’s-Eye View of the Indian Economy through the GST

Chapter 3: Investment and Saving Slowdowns and Recoveries: Cross-Country Insights for India

Chapter 4: Reconciling Fiscal Federalism and Accountability: Is there a Low Equilibrium Trap?

Chapter 5: Is there a “Late Converger Stall” in Economic Development? Can India Escape it?

Chapter 6: Climate, Climate Change, and Agriculture

Chapter 7: Gender and Son Meta-Preference: Is Development Itself an Antidote?

Chapter 8: Transforming Science and Technology in India

Chapter 9: Ease of Doing Business’ Next Frontier: Timely Justice

Volume II

Chapter 1: An Overview of India’s Economic Performance in 2017-18

Chapter 2: Review of Fiscal Developments

Chapter 3: Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation

Chapter 4: Prices and Inflation

Chapter 5: Sustainable Development, Energy and Climate Change

Chapter 6: External Sector

Chapter 7: Agriculture and Food Management

Chapter 8: Industry and Infrastructure

Chapter 9: Services Sector

Chapter 10: Social Infrastructure, Employment and Human Development

Cheers

Thanks, Sirji.

It's really a very painstaking post.

For those opposed to demonetisation IT numbers have increased by 1.8 million over and above normal increase.
For those opposed to GST tax base has increased by 50%.

Deleted.

Mort, do you mind being an actual contributor to the thread, rather than just rhetorically responding to posts by others with whattaboutery ? This has been a consistent trend on your part here. Long time members are expected to do more.

Peregrine wrote:INDIA : ECONOMIC SURVEY 2017 - 2018

Cheers

chetak wrote:Thanks, Sirji.

It's really a very painstaking post.

Chetak Ji :

AAP KI SEVA MEIN PRUSTOOT KIYA HAI.

Cheers

Economic Survey 2018: FY18 GDP at 6.75%; GST, bankruptcy code growth drivers

The Economic Survey 2017-18, tabled in Parliament on Monday, forecasts gross domestic product growth for 2018-19 at 7-7.5 per cent, compared with a forecast of 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal year.

“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 percent this fiscal and will rise to 7.0 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re-instating India as the world‘s fastest growing major economy,” an official statement said, after the tabling of the survey, adding that “the reform measures undertaken in 2017-18 can be strengthened further in 2018-19.

vijayk wrote:This is true but technology is changing the entire world. we need a strategy on Blockchain,AI and we need to create our own multinationals in every sphere. Look at how Indians are so taken by Facebook, Twitter and {deleted}.

AI? Sorry sire. It is going to be a redux of Japan's lost ten years of chasing exper systems which started back in 1988-90. They missed he Internet revolution. Let us be a little bit more conservative.

Arjun wrote:Ok lets keep politics off the table if that is how you define it.

If you or anyone else can share statistics on how China is not up to the game in the industries of the future, I am definitely interested!

up to the game compared to India, USA or some other economy
? Metric matters.

GST has uncovered 52 million hidden jobs. It is most likely employers were hiding these jobs to avoid taxes, by-pass minimum wage and avoid giving benefits. Source: Economic survey

well, people were hiding employees as contracts and paying them in cash without PF benefits etc. PF subscribers did rise significantly iirc.

see...even these guys are coming into the net

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 702561.cms

Rachappa, a matriculate, came under the police scanner a few months after he filed Income-Tax returns, declaring Rs 40 lakh as income for 2017-18.

I-T department officials called him for scrutiny as he had not declared the source of his income and asked police to keep an eye on him.

Police investigation revealed that Rachappa worked as a construction labourer in Bengaluru before taking to peddling drugs in 2013. He allegedly recruited youths as agents and ran a drug-peddling business in the city and earned crores of rupees. He also lived in a villa on Kanakapura Road paying Rs 40,000 monthly rent, owned a swanky car and property in his village.

Vayutuvan wrote:

Arjun wrote:Ok lets keep politics off the table if that is how you define it.

If you or anyone else can share statistics on how China is not up to the game in the industries of the future, I am definitely interested!

up to the game compared to India, USA or some other economy
? Metric matters.

This is the India thread - so you can compare against India in order to be relevant....but I would think China is in top 2 or 3 in most domains. Any examples that prove otherwise are welcome.

Here are some. Military tech unknown. Except for some poor countries most don't buy Chinese stuff. Has lead in a few domains. Space: Except for manned flight and a few domains not much lead. Trains: Yes but allegedly bullet trains tech was IP infringement. Planes: Yes but untested in market and IP infringement is alleged. Electronics - yes but Japs and Koreans are still leaders. Automobiles - Japs, Koreans, Germans still leaders. Consumer goods: Japs, Koreans still lead domain. Pharmaceuticals and biotech: No. Given the 13 year lead time it is quite possible for India to catch-up as it is doing in many domains. The China bogey is a distraction. You should compete with the Americans, Japs, Germans, French and Koreans in technology.

Traders who are underinvoicing imports or overinvoicing exports are hit hard by GST. Hawala has been hit by demo. These are the guys complaining the most.

While not underestimating PRC, we should not fall into the trap of overestimating their technological prowess. They certainly are in far better shape than Inida because they have the wherewithal to put money into blue sky projects. I won't write US off that fast though. There is lot of academic freedom.

I was talking about industries of the future....A few educational vignettes below:

Electric Cars: https://www.businessinsider.in/Ford-is- ... 938352.cms
AI: https://www.ft.com/content/856753d6-8d3 ... 6f43c5825d
Robotics: http://www.zdnet.com/article/china-is-p ... -expected/
Nanotech: https://www.materialstoday.com/nanomate ... a-and-usa/
BLockchain: https://bravenewcoin.com/news/chinese-d ... vestments/
IoT/5G: http://www.atimes.com/article/5g-may-ch ... echnology/

Should I continue? We can talk about other sectors as well...

I definitely do like the scale of China's ambition. Waiting for the time when India stops focusing on its own navel and starts thinking big. Is it just a matter of 13 years difference between the two countries? Perhaps in GDP terms - but when it comes to strategic industry domination - we are waaay behind...perhaps not even in the race.

On EV, Chinese car companies would have arrived if consumers swear to ride out the EV cars to its end-of-life instead of worrying about being ridden to their own end-of-life.

The news article posted has the following headline:

Ford is betting China will beat the US and dominate the electric car market

In another news:

https://electrek.co/2017/12/05/ford-exp ... -china-ev/

However one has to go beyond the headlines, ford will also introduce 25 gasoline based models in China by 2025. And here is a bit on EV about Ford:

Ford has so far been lagging behind in the introduction of all-electric vehicles as one of the major automakers. They still don’t have an all-electric vehicle build from the ground up to be electric and they instead focus on hybrids and compliance EVs.

They have now announced some important plans to change that, but it looks like they are still focusing on plug-in hybrids since they referred to those new models as “electrified.”

In contrast, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 469092.cms

Yeah, one uncommitted-to-EV company Ford's bellicose comment is more important than the real happenings in India.

On EV cars, China is no-way ahead as it is made out to be. So let's leave the EV debate behind.

The key component of the EV will be the electric vehicle battery...and China is all set to dominate this industry and supply of lithium which is the core material:

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/20/investi ... index.html

https://www.ft.com/content/83280ada-c90 ... 9fb7d6163e (talks about CATL, China's largest electric vehicle battery maker planning to raise $2 Bn from an IPO. Its rival, BYD is already valued at $27 Bn and is China's biggest electric battery maker.)

In fact, one reason India is hesitating on its 2030 electric car mission - is that India will just be moving from dependence on the Gulf (oil) to dependence on China (batteries & Lithium) in the new scenario.

^^ shows how proximity to existing clusters, transport links , access to natural resources and markets drive it.
the evolution of public stock cos and other financial inventions took place in england and netherlands.
no longer was royal funding or a single wealthy patron need to fund ventures and expeditions.

likewise the industrial revolution in cheen spread from offshore nodes like japan and taiwan into the mainland

the mediterranean rim is still agricultural and not highly industrial.

Arjun, please keep the China/US/west stuff to the global economy thread. Thanks.

In general, this isn't a thread to whine and complain about what's not happening, that you desire. A whines thread elsewhere is better suited to it. This thread makes most progress when people don't get emotional but instead find data and useful policy history to post and analyze. It may be 'dry', but nevertheless, this thread gets a lot of eyeballs because it maintains focus.