Understanding the US- Again

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby svinayak » 11 Aug 2018 04:44

chola wrote:Trump is amazing! Lol

He is looking Wall Street right in the eyes and kicking us in the teeth.

The Fortune 500 is going to have its profit projections halved in a few years when they are walled off from the China market.

OR Trump forces the chinis to back down on their “Made in China 2025” tech initiatives and the Fortune 500 keeps its tech lead AND get unfettered access to the chini market. This would cause a massive uptick in the forecast!

No American President has put things on the line like this. He has even odds of winning.


China USA are in collusion
China has threatened India 12 months ago
Trump has put tariffs only 2 months ago
He is late by more than 10 mths

China invaded South China Sea 10 years ago

USA has never sanctioned China like it did Russia for annexing Crimea

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10459
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby A_Gupta » 11 Aug 2018 07:45

ramana wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:Why is everyone fascinated with Yalta-2? Is this the grand alliance against China?


I called it Yalta-2 right on the day the Helsinki meeting occurred. Reason is its similar to the the first Yalta between FDR and Stalin which divided Europe into zones of influence. Churchill was unhappy and started the iron Curtain speech which launched the Cold War as FDR was dead by then.

Reason why this is Yalta-2 in my mind is some modus vivendi on Europe with Russia is needed to rebuild US economy after the 2008 financial collapse. Also other regions and spread of nukes. An important marker was the remark about US-Russia controlling 90% of the world nukes. Lets see.


OK. But the Soviet Union was economically quite powerful, it reached its peak at 20% of world GDP in 1966. Back in 1939 also the USSR was second in the world, just slightly ahead of Hitler's Germany. When the USSR dissolved it was down to 7.6% of world economy. Today Russia has an economy that in exchange rate terms is half the size of the Indian economy. The Russian economy is 8% of the US economy. This would be like India seeking out Romania to build the Indian economy.

PS: the economy of the European Union as a whole is about as big as the US economy. I.e., the Russian economy is a midget compared to the EU as well.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby svinayak » 11 Aug 2018 08:20

It is all about geography

Russia by creating the Russia-China-India geopolitical entity a Great Wall has been created

RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5177
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby RoyG » 11 Aug 2018 09:49

A_Gupta wrote:
ramana wrote:
I called it Yalta-2 right on the day the Helsinki meeting occurred. Reason is its similar to the the first Yalta between FDR and Stalin which divided Europe into zones of influence. Churchill was unhappy and started the iron Curtain speech which launched the Cold War as FDR was dead by then.

Reason why this is Yalta-2 in my mind is some modus vivendi on Europe with Russia is needed to rebuild US economy after the 2008 financial collapse. Also other regions and spread of nukes. An important marker was the remark about US-Russia controlling 90% of the world nukes. Lets see.


OK. But the Soviet Union was economically quite powerful, it reached its peak at 20% of world GDP in 1966. Back in 1939 also the USSR was second in the world, just slightly ahead of Hitler's Germany. When the USSR dissolved it was down to 7.6% of world economy. Today Russia has an economy that in exchange rate terms is half the size of the Indian economy. The Russian economy is 8% of the US economy. This would be like India seeking out Romania to build the Indian economy.

PS: the economy of the European Union as a whole is about as big as the US economy. I.e., the Russian economy is a midget compared to the EU as well.


Fusion and renewable energy, automation, synthetic materials, AI, digital currency, etc. are going to unite the planet but under which leadership is really the question. Asia wants to establish rule as nature intended. The West wants to establish how God intended to bring about utopia.

Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3121
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Rudradev » 11 Aug 2018 10:41

A_Gupta, I agree with you. All this "Yalta-2" stuff is a byproduct of superimposing an ill-fitting historical template to try and understand a state of affairs that has a far more desultory and realistic explanation: sheer dysfunction & incompetence.

Deep State Republicans have Trump trained like a dog. They will not give him what he wants unless it is in their interests, and despite having GOP majorities in the House and Senate, Trump can do exactly nothing about this. First lesson was delivered with the tight slap when he failed to repeal and replace Obamacare. More recently two Immigration bills failed to pass even the House, thanks to Republicans. When it does not fit with the Koch's line, Trump is not allowed to do it. Simple.

So all Trump can do is toe the line (like a Paki PM respecting Pak Army's wishes) and claim any victories that happen to accrue as his "own". Such as the tax cuts and Supreme Court nominations. Right now they are using him as a crowd-drawing campaigner to energize the base for the midterms (he has said he plans to spend 5-6 days a week on the campaign trail until November). That's all.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 62665
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 11 Aug 2018 10:52

Dt tweet

I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 62665
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 11 Aug 2018 10:53

Turkey lira has slid 70% vs dollar this year i read in twitter

Turkey trades mostly with euro zone but lira has slid similarly vs euro i just checked

They are self sufficient in food with good manufacturing and tourism but imports like oil priced on dollar will be a burden

Foreign adventure in syria may wind up sooner with handover of idlib to the russian camp

I guess a cheaper time to visit turkey if on todo list

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50021
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2018 02:21

Lalmohan wrote:the Romans and the Persians - the crucible through the ages


New Romans* have come yet Persians are still there.
That is the meaning of geopolitics.

* New Romans# each claiming to be the successor to Romans:
1) USA. No need to explain.
2) Russia. Muscovy claimed to be the third Rome.
3) Germany. Successor of Holy Roman Empire under Merkel Barbarossa.


# Insight provided by ricky_v.

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 35679
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby SaiK » 12 Aug 2018 06:43


Robbers don't spit.. that is a 101% pure sign of hatred.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50021
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2018 09:35

The assailant turned out to be estranged son of police chief in California.

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5197
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ShauryaT » 12 Aug 2018 10:01

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-08-10/strategic-thinking-made-america-great?cid=int-fls&pgtype=hpg
Before Trump, the bedrock of U.S. grand strategy for successive administrations, from Franklin D. Roosevelt to George H. W. Bush, was “Europe First.” “Europe First” meant seeking democratic allies in key areas of the globe, especially across the Atlantic; embracing multilateral institutions; and thwarting efforts of adversaries to gain control of the preponderant natural resources, industrial infrastructure, and skilled labor of Europe and Asia. It never meant Europe alone. The strategy was the means through which policymakers sought to safeguard democratic capitalism and serve the most vital interests and values of the United States—abroad, but especially at home. Of all the pillars of U.S. foreign policy that Trump has jeopardized since taking office, his abandonment of the “Europe First” strategy stands to be the greatest loss.


Roosevelt’s grand strategic concept was simple: the United States could not be free, could not be “first,” indeed could not survive, if it was not linked economically, militarily, strategically, and ideologically to like-minded nations across the oceans. The United Kingdom had to survive and democratic Europe had to be liberated if free enterprise and political liberty were to flourish in the United States. This simple concept would outlast the war, shape the fragile peace that followed, and form the foundation of the political order that triumphed in the Cold War and brought unprecedented wealth and liberty to the peoples of Europe and Asia.


The strategic logic that made the United States great in the twentieth century is simple and still applies today: preserve an open international order and thwart adversaries or coalitions of adversaries from gaining control, either directly or indirectly, of the preponderant resources and industrial infrastructure of Europe and Asia. Deter and contain. Then, seek to co-opt and integrate adversaries into the multilateral institutions that are designed to promote the rule of law, nurture nondiscriminatory trade, encourage open marketplaces, protect human rights, and strengthen civil society. This work takes decades, and setbacks are inevitable. But if the logic of the past is discarded now, the security of the United States will be endangered and the American way of life imperiled.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50021
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2018 10:58

ShauryaT,
Thanks for posting the article. From Great Depression in 1929 to 2009 was the Euro bankers run. US with them created the new post Empire world. WWI ended the European empires.
We are now seeing new actors and new structures of power being created.
We will see much more chaos and many shibboleths destroyed.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9198
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Aug 2018 16:54

From the FoPo article that Shaurya quoted:
It never meant Europe alone. .... The strategy was the means through which policymakers sought to safeguard democratic capitalism and serve the most vital interests and values of the United States—abroad, but especially at home. Of all the pillars of U.S. foreign policy that Trump has jeopardized since taking office, his abandonment of the “Europe First” strategy stands to be the greatest loss.


In the glory days when BRF actually had ppl who wrote papers in addition to tweets, ans we used to be quoted in strange places, our member "kgoan" wrote a brilliant article titled "GROUPTHINK". The above is a classic example.

Put these two statements together:

It never meant Europe alone.
his abandonment of the “Europe First” strategy stands to be the greatest loss.


Let's see what Roosevelt actually **DID**, rather than SAID. Sure, it was "Europe FIRST".
1. Sent ships and planes to destroy the **European** submarine fleet.
2. Sent tens of thousands of bomber planes to bomb the pakistan out of ***Europe***. Over 55,000 Americans died in that campaign, BTW.
3. Sent hundreds of thousands of Americans to invade the North African colonies of **Europe**, then directly invade **Europe**. Italy. Greece? Belgium. France. Scandinavia? Occupy Britain.

Trump has not (yet) bombed Europe. Just sat impassively as the German Fuhrer, L'Empereure, the Italian Don all milled around him in utter panic. Notably he has not turned **AGAINST** the former American colony of Britain, merely told them that their leaders are idiots. In fact what he told them was that whether they were going to split with Oirope or not, America could deal with them as friends.

Also, because "it never meant Oirope alone", he has turned to other DEMOCRACIES such as India, SoKo and Japan as allies to hold up the Noo Whirled Odor. And Russia.

Bottom line: "Europe united" today has a map that looks very much like Europe of 1942 and it is about as united in underlying unity. But it is insignificant compared to the major democracies of the world. Except to the twits of "FoPo".

Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12748
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 13 Aug 2018 13:24

Ramana - the banking centre of gravity moved to New York during the early part of the 20th century as well, I believe you are giving too much credit to the European bankers

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10459
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby A_Gupta » 13 Aug 2018 17:29

US-Russia realities:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... on/567368/

A former colleague who was leading the effort to engage Russia in the war on terror compared the periodic desire to work with the Russians to someone who buys a baboon as a pet, only to be surprised to have his face ripped off. Then, after recovering, he goes out and buys another baboon. “How many times do we have to get our faces ripped off by the Russians before we realize that we have fundamentally different goals?” my colleague asked.

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2837
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Kashi » 13 Aug 2018 17:43

^^ And the same folks make it a point to repeatedly demand that we engage with Pakistanis.

Would like to ask the gentleman, what does that compare with?

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50021
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 13 Aug 2018 21:16

Lalmohan wrote:Ramana - the banking centre of gravity moved to New York during the early part of the 20th century as well, I believe you are giving too much credit to the European bankers


In gross volume it looks like that. The New York banking center was to finance the economic expansion in US, while European banking still had the dibs on global financing.
This dynamic has been going on since 1875 that is ten years after the Civil War ended.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9198
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2018 21:27

Signs of the times, posted with no comment. From Asian American organization:

The Predicted "Tough time" has come
According to Politico, President Trump called "almost every student" from China a spy. What a broad stroke statement without evidence! Politicians set stages for their next moves. What could he be preparing the stage for?
Didn't EF tell you again and again, things would get bad? Did any other AsAm. orgs say that? If not, then support EF. 80-20 EF not only forecasts things accurately for you but also works hard, together with others, to find ways to protect you. We are working on this outrageous accusation right now.
Mark our words: things will get worse. If you sense danger like we do, then do the following very easy step first. You can do it.
A SOLUTION WHERE WE CONTROL THE INITIATIVE
If you have friends who supported Trump prominently in the
2016 election, it's time to ask them to either ask Pres. Trump
to withdraw his statement or break with him publicly.
Result? Either Trump will withdraw his statement or he'll lose almost all his former prominent AsAm supporters. He'll get the message. The pending danger of losing elections is what all politicians understand, Reason with your Trump-supporting-friends. Tell them that we don't blame them for supporting Trump. This is their right. We only want them to stand up to Trump NOW to protect our community. PLEASE PERSUADE THEM TODAY!

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9198
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Aug 2018 06:38

Meanwhile in Dearborn MI

The Second Europeanization of America

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10459
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Aug 2018 07:26

From an operative point of view, whiteness does not refer to any place of origin, any set of genes. It refers to an in-group with the legislative and social power to create the out-group, to exclude. While the white may choose to include a Nigerian (“Oh, these people from Africa aren’t like our Blacks at all!”) or anyone else, it is theirs to grant the permission because power remains in whiteness itself.

I understand what you’re referring to, but I think you’ve allowed your eyes to be tricked by your culture. I don’t want to be presumptive or insulting, but we (me, too) really do see what we have been trained to see. We really do start to see, with our eyes, “non-white” characteristics of people in an out-group or “white” characteristics of an admitted in-group. Geneticists and anthropologists tell us that we’re seeing our culture and politics, not physical reality.

(I’m sure you know the rainbow paradox at the heart of the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis. A rainbow is, we know, a continuum of color, and yet every person sees stripes. The stripes aren’t there, but we see them anyway. The number of stripes we see corresponds to the number of primary color words in our language.)

Anyway, this is my point of view.


This is what someone who writes as "The Geogre" wrote. The "I understand what you’re referring to" was the somewhat naive view of white racism that I had expressed.

There was something called the Discovery Doctrine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discovery_doctrine
I think it has less (not zero) to do with Christianity and more to do with the supreme belief in their own privilege that underlies whiteness.
The Discovery doctrine is a concept of public international law expounded by the United States Supreme Court in a series of decisions, most notably Johnson v. M'Intosh in 1823. Chief Justice John Marshall explained and applied the way that colonial powers laid claim to lands belonging to foreign sovereign nations during the Age of Discovery. Under it, title to lands lay with the government whose subjects travelled to and occupied a territory whose inhabitants were not subjects of a European Christian monarch. The doctrine has been primarily used to support decisions invalidating or ignoring aboriginal possession of land in favor of colonial or post-colonial governments.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 278
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby syam » 14 Aug 2018 14:53

Most of the time, we don't consider religion when understanding US. I think it is very important to consider this factor also. For me, capitalism is nothing but modern day Islam. Just replace Allah with white-skin and Islam with greed. I wish some one writes something along these lines.

On funnier note, I did some wild comparisons.

Anglo-Saxons(Eng/Am) -> Abbasid Dynasty(Caliphate)
Both have similar history. Abbasid dynasty ruled Persia and ate up its culture. It was golden age according many people. Similar thing happened with Anglos and India. They ate up whatever we have here. And they are also having golden age.

Russia -> Byzantine Empire
Well, obvious villain.

Chinese -> Mongols :D

---
Gandhi Dynasty -> Delhi sultanate
Both shown middle finger to their caliphates and hate hindus.

Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12748
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 14 Aug 2018 17:53

DT pushing a hard line against Iran on sanctions, target of reducing oil exports to zero
India is known to be looking at alternative payment methods
China has said we will continue as planned and buy more if available (so FUDT)
EU has issued guidelines to ignore sanctions, but many companies are pulling out, e.g. Total from big refinery project in Pars
Chinese are ready to step in to Pars project
only beneficiaries so far are Israel and Saudi and the Chinese

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19359
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Philip » 14 Aug 2018 21:12

The rupee's fall against the almighty $ must get the GOI looking at other alternatives in paying for imports, barter and other currencies as well.However, the huge Chinese trade deficit of $60B must be reversed with high duties and ban on some Chin goods that are destroying our small and micro industries which employ local people in rural and mofussil areas..

souravB
BRFite
Posts: 103
Joined: 07 Jun 2018 13:52

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby souravB » 14 Aug 2018 23:45

A post on the lighter side
Trump's Latest guffaw
I don't want to incite any angry reactions from people and personally feel should be taken as a zest and a sign that DT likes Modi.
After Trump’s staffers told the president that Modi would not be bringing his wife along to the meeting at the White House, Trump allegedly joked, “Ah, I think I can set him up with somebody,” the report said, according to “two people briefed on the meeting.”

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9198
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Aug 2018 00:45

<deleted> (gulp! Into cave. Bredators were hovering there for a moment) :shock:
Last edited by UlanBatori on 15 Aug 2018 01:50, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50021
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 15 Aug 2018 00:59

OK. No need to go downward spiral.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: chaitanya and 29 guests