Understanding the US - Again

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svinayak
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby svinayak » 11 Aug 2018 04:44

chola wrote:Trump is amazing! Lol

He is looking Wall Street right in the eyes and kicking us in the teeth.

The Fortune 500 is going to have its profit projections halved in a few years when they are walled off from the China market.

OR Trump forces the chinis to back down on their “Made in China 2025” tech initiatives and the Fortune 500 keeps its tech lead AND get unfettered access to the chini market. This would cause a massive uptick in the forecast!

No American President has put things on the line like this. He has even odds of winning.


China USA are in collusion
China has threatened India 12 months ago
Trump has put tariffs only 2 months ago
He is late by more than 10 mths

China invaded South China Sea 10 years ago

USA has never sanctioned China like it did Russia for annexing Crimea

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby A_Gupta » 11 Aug 2018 07:45

ramana wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:Why is everyone fascinated with Yalta-2? Is this the grand alliance against China?


I called it Yalta-2 right on the day the Helsinki meeting occurred. Reason is its similar to the the first Yalta between FDR and Stalin which divided Europe into zones of influence. Churchill was unhappy and started the iron Curtain speech which launched the Cold War as FDR was dead by then.

Reason why this is Yalta-2 in my mind is some modus vivendi on Europe with Russia is needed to rebuild US economy after the 2008 financial collapse. Also other regions and spread of nukes. An important marker was the remark about US-Russia controlling 90% of the world nukes. Lets see.


OK. But the Soviet Union was economically quite powerful, it reached its peak at 20% of world GDP in 1966. Back in 1939 also the USSR was second in the world, just slightly ahead of Hitler's Germany. When the USSR dissolved it was down to 7.6% of world economy. Today Russia has an economy that in exchange rate terms is half the size of the Indian economy. The Russian economy is 8% of the US economy. This would be like India seeking out Romania to build the Indian economy.

PS: the economy of the European Union as a whole is about as big as the US economy. I.e., the Russian economy is a midget compared to the EU as well.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby svinayak » 11 Aug 2018 08:20

It is all about geography

Russia by creating the Russia-China-India geopolitical entity a Great Wall has been created

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby RoyG » 11 Aug 2018 09:49

A_Gupta wrote:
ramana wrote:
I called it Yalta-2 right on the day the Helsinki meeting occurred. Reason is its similar to the the first Yalta between FDR and Stalin which divided Europe into zones of influence. Churchill was unhappy and started the iron Curtain speech which launched the Cold War as FDR was dead by then.

Reason why this is Yalta-2 in my mind is some modus vivendi on Europe with Russia is needed to rebuild US economy after the 2008 financial collapse. Also other regions and spread of nukes. An important marker was the remark about US-Russia controlling 90% of the world nukes. Lets see.


OK. But the Soviet Union was economically quite powerful, it reached its peak at 20% of world GDP in 1966. Back in 1939 also the USSR was second in the world, just slightly ahead of Hitler's Germany. When the USSR dissolved it was down to 7.6% of world economy. Today Russia has an economy that in exchange rate terms is half the size of the Indian economy. The Russian economy is 8% of the US economy. This would be like India seeking out Romania to build the Indian economy.

PS: the economy of the European Union as a whole is about as big as the US economy. I.e., the Russian economy is a midget compared to the EU as well.


Fusion and renewable energy, automation, synthetic materials, AI, digital currency, etc. are going to unite the planet but under which leadership is really the question. Asia wants to establish rule as nature intended. The West wants to establish how God intended to bring about utopia.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Rudradev » 11 Aug 2018 10:41

A_Gupta, I agree with you. All this "Yalta-2" stuff is a byproduct of superimposing an ill-fitting historical template to try and understand a state of affairs that has a far more desultory and realistic explanation: sheer dysfunction & incompetence.

Deep State Republicans have Trump trained like a dog. They will not give him what he wants unless it is in their interests, and despite having GOP majorities in the House and Senate, Trump can do exactly nothing about this. First lesson was delivered with the tight slap when he failed to repeal and replace Obamacare. More recently two Immigration bills failed to pass even the House, thanks to Republicans. When it does not fit with the Koch's line, Trump is not allowed to do it. Simple.

So all Trump can do is toe the line (like a Paki PM respecting Pak Army's wishes) and claim any victories that happen to accrue as his "own". Such as the tax cuts and Supreme Court nominations. Right now they are using him as a crowd-drawing campaigner to energize the base for the midterms (he has said he plans to spend 5-6 days a week on the campaign trail until November). That's all.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 11 Aug 2018 10:52

Dt tweet

I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 11 Aug 2018 10:53

Turkey lira has slid 70% vs dollar this year i read in twitter

Turkey trades mostly with euro zone but lira has slid similarly vs euro i just checked

They are self sufficient in food with good manufacturing and tourism but imports like oil priced on dollar will be a burden

Foreign adventure in syria may wind up sooner with handover of idlib to the russian camp

I guess a cheaper time to visit turkey if on todo list

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2018 02:21

Lalmohan wrote:the Romans and the Persians - the crucible through the ages


New Romans* have come yet Persians are still there.
That is the meaning of geopolitics.

* New Romans# each claiming to be the successor to Romans:
1) USA. No need to explain.
2) Russia. Muscovy claimed to be the third Rome.
3) Germany. Successor of Holy Roman Empire under Merkel Barbarossa.


# Insight provided by ricky_v.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby SaiK » 12 Aug 2018 06:43


Robbers don't spit.. that is a 101% pure sign of hatred.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2018 09:35

The assailant turned out to be estranged son of police chief in California.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ShauryaT » 12 Aug 2018 10:01

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-08-10/strategic-thinking-made-america-great?cid=int-fls&pgtype=hpg
Before Trump, the bedrock of U.S. grand strategy for successive administrations, from Franklin D. Roosevelt to George H. W. Bush, was “Europe First.” “Europe First” meant seeking democratic allies in key areas of the globe, especially across the Atlantic; embracing multilateral institutions; and thwarting efforts of adversaries to gain control of the preponderant natural resources, industrial infrastructure, and skilled labor of Europe and Asia. It never meant Europe alone. The strategy was the means through which policymakers sought to safeguard democratic capitalism and serve the most vital interests and values of the United States—abroad, but especially at home. Of all the pillars of U.S. foreign policy that Trump has jeopardized since taking office, his abandonment of the “Europe First” strategy stands to be the greatest loss.


Roosevelt’s grand strategic concept was simple: the United States could not be free, could not be “first,” indeed could not survive, if it was not linked economically, militarily, strategically, and ideologically to like-minded nations across the oceans. The United Kingdom had to survive and democratic Europe had to be liberated if free enterprise and political liberty were to flourish in the United States. This simple concept would outlast the war, shape the fragile peace that followed, and form the foundation of the political order that triumphed in the Cold War and brought unprecedented wealth and liberty to the peoples of Europe and Asia.


The strategic logic that made the United States great in the twentieth century is simple and still applies today: preserve an open international order and thwart adversaries or coalitions of adversaries from gaining control, either directly or indirectly, of the preponderant resources and industrial infrastructure of Europe and Asia. Deter and contain. Then, seek to co-opt and integrate adversaries into the multilateral institutions that are designed to promote the rule of law, nurture nondiscriminatory trade, encourage open marketplaces, protect human rights, and strengthen civil society. This work takes decades, and setbacks are inevitable. But if the logic of the past is discarded now, the security of the United States will be endangered and the American way of life imperiled.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2018 10:58

ShauryaT,
Thanks for posting the article. From Great Depression in 1929 to 2009 was the Euro bankers run. US with them created the new post Empire world. WWI ended the European empires.
We are now seeing new actors and new structures of power being created.
We will see much more chaos and many shibboleths destroyed.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Aug 2018 16:54

From the FoPo article that Shaurya quoted:
It never meant Europe alone. .... The strategy was the means through which policymakers sought to safeguard democratic capitalism and serve the most vital interests and values of the United States—abroad, but especially at home. Of all the pillars of U.S. foreign policy that Trump has jeopardized since taking office, his abandonment of the “Europe First” strategy stands to be the greatest loss.


In the glory days when BRF actually had ppl who wrote papers in addition to tweets, ans we used to be quoted in strange places, our member "kgoan" wrote a brilliant article titled "GROUPTHINK". The above is a classic example.

Put these two statements together:

It never meant Europe alone.
his abandonment of the “Europe First” strategy stands to be the greatest loss.


Let's see what Roosevelt actually **DID**, rather than SAID. Sure, it was "Europe FIRST".
1. Sent ships and planes to destroy the **European** submarine fleet.
2. Sent tens of thousands of bomber planes to bomb the pakistan out of ***Europe***. Over 55,000 Americans died in that campaign, BTW.
3. Sent hundreds of thousands of Americans to invade the North African colonies of **Europe**, then directly invade **Europe**. Italy. Greece? Belgium. France. Scandinavia? Occupy Britain.

Trump has not (yet) bombed Europe. Just sat impassively as the German Fuhrer, L'Empereure, the Italian Don all milled around him in utter panic. Notably he has not turned **AGAINST** the former American colony of Britain, merely told them that their leaders are idiots. In fact what he told them was that whether they were going to split with Oirope or not, America could deal with them as friends.

Also, because "it never meant Oirope alone", he has turned to other DEMOCRACIES such as India, SoKo and Japan as allies to hold up the Noo Whirled Odor. And Russia.

Bottom line: "Europe united" today has a map that looks very much like Europe of 1942 and it is about as united in underlying unity. But it is insignificant compared to the major democracies of the world. Except to the twits of "FoPo".

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 13 Aug 2018 13:24

Ramana - the banking centre of gravity moved to New York during the early part of the 20th century as well, I believe you are giving too much credit to the European bankers

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby A_Gupta » 13 Aug 2018 17:29

US-Russia realities:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... on/567368/

A former colleague who was leading the effort to engage Russia in the war on terror compared the periodic desire to work with the Russians to someone who buys a baboon as a pet, only to be surprised to have his face ripped off. Then, after recovering, he goes out and buys another baboon. “How many times do we have to get our faces ripped off by the Russians before we realize that we have fundamentally different goals?” my colleague asked.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Kashi » 13 Aug 2018 17:43

^^ And the same folks make it a point to repeatedly demand that we engage with Pakistanis.

Would like to ask the gentleman, what does that compare with?

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 13 Aug 2018 21:16

Lalmohan wrote:Ramana - the banking centre of gravity moved to New York during the early part of the 20th century as well, I believe you are giving too much credit to the European bankers


In gross volume it looks like that. The New York banking center was to finance the economic expansion in US, while European banking still had the dibs on global financing.
This dynamic has been going on since 1875 that is ten years after the Civil War ended.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2018 21:27

Signs of the times, posted with no comment. From Asian American organization:

The Predicted "Tough time" has come
According to Politico, President Trump called "almost every student" from China a spy. What a broad stroke statement without evidence! Politicians set stages for their next moves. What could he be preparing the stage for?
Didn't EF tell you again and again, things would get bad? Did any other AsAm. orgs say that? If not, then support EF. 80-20 EF not only forecasts things accurately for you but also works hard, together with others, to find ways to protect you. We are working on this outrageous accusation right now.
Mark our words: things will get worse. If you sense danger like we do, then do the following very easy step first. You can do it.
A SOLUTION WHERE WE CONTROL THE INITIATIVE
If you have friends who supported Trump prominently in the
2016 election, it's time to ask them to either ask Pres. Trump
to withdraw his statement or break with him publicly.
Result? Either Trump will withdraw his statement or he'll lose almost all his former prominent AsAm supporters. He'll get the message. The pending danger of losing elections is what all politicians understand, Reason with your Trump-supporting-friends. Tell them that we don't blame them for supporting Trump. This is their right. We only want them to stand up to Trump NOW to protect our community. PLEASE PERSUADE THEM TODAY!

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Aug 2018 06:38

Meanwhile in Dearborn MI

The Second Europeanization of America

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Aug 2018 07:26

From an operative point of view, whiteness does not refer to any place of origin, any set of genes. It refers to an in-group with the legislative and social power to create the out-group, to exclude. While the white may choose to include a Nigerian (“Oh, these people from Africa aren’t like our Blacks at all!”) or anyone else, it is theirs to grant the permission because power remains in whiteness itself.

I understand what you’re referring to, but I think you’ve allowed your eyes to be tricked by your culture. I don’t want to be presumptive or insulting, but we (me, too) really do see what we have been trained to see. We really do start to see, with our eyes, “non-white” characteristics of people in an out-group or “white” characteristics of an admitted in-group. Geneticists and anthropologists tell us that we’re seeing our culture and politics, not physical reality.

(I’m sure you know the rainbow paradox at the heart of the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis. A rainbow is, we know, a continuum of color, and yet every person sees stripes. The stripes aren’t there, but we see them anyway. The number of stripes we see corresponds to the number of primary color words in our language.)

Anyway, this is my point of view.


This is what someone who writes as "The Geogre" wrote. The "I understand what you’re referring to" was the somewhat naive view of white racism that I had expressed.

There was something called the Discovery Doctrine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discovery_doctrine
I think it has less (not zero) to do with Christianity and more to do with the supreme belief in their own privilege that underlies whiteness.
The Discovery doctrine is a concept of public international law expounded by the United States Supreme Court in a series of decisions, most notably Johnson v. M'Intosh in 1823. Chief Justice John Marshall explained and applied the way that colonial powers laid claim to lands belonging to foreign sovereign nations during the Age of Discovery. Under it, title to lands lay with the government whose subjects travelled to and occupied a territory whose inhabitants were not subjects of a European Christian monarch. The doctrine has been primarily used to support decisions invalidating or ignoring aboriginal possession of land in favor of colonial or post-colonial governments.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby syam » 14 Aug 2018 14:53

Most of the time, we don't consider religion when understanding US. I think it is very important to consider this factor also. For me, capitalism is nothing but modern day Islam. Just replace Allah with white-skin and Islam with greed. I wish some one writes something along these lines.

On funnier note, I did some wild comparisons.

Anglo-Saxons(Eng/Am) -> Abbasid Dynasty(Caliphate)
Both have similar history. Abbasid dynasty ruled Persia and ate up its culture. It was golden age according many people. Similar thing happened with Anglos and India. They ate up whatever we have here. And they are also having golden age.

Russia -> Byzantine Empire
Well, obvious villain.

Chinese -> Mongols :D

---
Gandhi Dynasty -> Delhi sultanate
Both shown middle finger to their caliphates and hate hindus.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 14 Aug 2018 17:53

DT pushing a hard line against Iran on sanctions, target of reducing oil exports to zero
India is known to be looking at alternative payment methods
China has said we will continue as planned and buy more if available (so FUDT)
EU has issued guidelines to ignore sanctions, but many companies are pulling out, e.g. Total from big refinery project in Pars
Chinese are ready to step in to Pars project
only beneficiaries so far are Israel and Saudi and the Chinese

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Philip » 14 Aug 2018 21:12

The rupee's fall against the almighty $ must get the GOI looking at other alternatives in paying for imports, barter and other currencies as well.However, the huge Chinese trade deficit of $60B must be reversed with high duties and ban on some Chin goods that are destroying our small and micro industries which employ local people in rural and mofussil areas..

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby souravB » 14 Aug 2018 23:45

A post on the lighter side
Trump's Latest guffaw
I don't want to incite any angry reactions from people and personally feel should be taken as a zest and a sign that DT likes Modi.
After Trump’s staffers told the president that Modi would not be bringing his wife along to the meeting at the White House, Trump allegedly joked, “Ah, I think I can set him up with somebody,” the report said, according to “two people briefed on the meeting.”

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Aug 2018 00:45

<deleted> (gulp! Into cave. Bredators were hovering there for a moment) :shock:
Last edited by UlanBatori on 15 Aug 2018 01:50, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 15 Aug 2018 00:59

OK. No need to go downward spiral.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Lalmohan » 15 Aug 2018 14:06

i think its worth considering the different influences on the trump presidency, what their core interests are and what it means for India
this is by no means exhaustive

1. Deep state republicans: want tax cuts, roll back of welfare state, easier on immigration to facilitate low cost labour (American dominance of world) --> India is largely irrelevant unless its a market for American goods
2. conservative rural/suburban: tax cuts (implicit less welfare state), more moral policing, don't want immigration, (America global leader) --> India is out there somewhere
3. evan-jehadis: strong moral policing, preservation of white dominance, hard line religio-conservative agenda, no immigration, (Putin is not a bad chap) --> spread the good word of the lord to the heathens of India
4. far right: white supremacy above all else, can't really think about anything else (Putin is the new fuhrer), subjugate non whites --> what is India?
5. white working class: save us from irrelevance, want more welfare state, want more protection, save us from the globalists --> Is India further away than Kansas city?
6. Putin: destabilise the US and the west and regain Russian strategic importance and positioning --> India can be leveraged for specific issues one way or another but is not a primary factor
7. Saudi: facilitate oil flow, hem in iran --> does not suit india
8. bibi's Israel (oddly right now evanjehadi community is their main backer, with American Jews more aligned to 1 and 2) : contain iran --> does not suit india

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Aug 2018 17:48

Isn't it logical that US voters are interested in US, just like Indian voters are/should be interested in India? The trouble is those nations/non-state actors that **ARE** "interested in India". Like Macedonia of 340BCE, Afghanistan post-780, Portugal of 1470, UK of 1600, Pakistan since 1940, Cheen since 1962, and Evanjehadis/Vatican since 0 and locusts/Malaria/Polio/AIDS/Plague/ChickenBunia. Some of these are deterred by Agni, but others need other sorts of deterrence and eradication.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 15 Aug 2018 21:37

UB, That is why yoga has been repeatedly condemned and virtual banned in US in 1920s, 1970s and now is being digested but is resisting.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 15 Aug 2018 21:43

Lalmohan wrote:i think its worth considering the different influences on the trump presidency, what their core interests are and what it means for India
this is by no means exhaustive

1. Deep state republicans: want tax cuts, roll back of welfare state, easier on immigration to facilitate low cost labour (American dominance of world) --> India is largely irrelevant unless its a market for American goods
2. conservative rural/suburban: tax cuts (implicit less welfare state), more moral policing, don't want immigration, (America global leader) --> India is out there somewhere
3. evan-jehadis: strong moral policing, preservation of white dominance, hard line religio-conservative agenda, no immigration, (Putin is not a bad chap) --> spread the good word of the lord to the heathens of India
4. far right: white supremacy above all else, can't really think about anything else (Putin is the new fuhrer), subjugate non whites --> what is India?
5. white working class: save us from irrelevance, want more welfare state, want more protection, save us from the globalists --> Is India further away than Kansas city?
6. Putin: destabilise the US and the west and regain Russian strategic importance and positioning --> India can be leveraged for specific issues one way or another but is not a primary factor
7. Saudi: facilitate oil flow, hem in iran --> does not suit india
8. bibi's Israel (oddly right now evanjehadi community is their main backer, with American Jews more aligned to 1 and 2) : contain iran --> does not suit india


LM, I knew you had it in you and would come up with something useful.
A very good first cut. We should do similar taxonomy in all the India-xxx threads to examine the factors and what they mean to India.

All the foreign actors as they appear to act inside US. Outside they may be different.
For example 6&8 are aligned with India.
7 is trying to align to contain Iran.

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Rudradev » 16 Aug 2018 03:21

Apologies for what will be a very long post.

Essentially, the thesis I propose is that every 30 years approximately, the United States of America has undergone what I call a "Manthan"... a five-year period that could be described as an "inflection point", but is more precisely an "inflection corridor". This is a time of churning, upheaval, reassessment, re-alignment, re-evaluation, and re-imagining among the American public and political classes. It is typically accompanied by a change of leadership style and vision (even if not actually a replacement of the governing party in the White House or legislature).

Each "Manthan" is pivotally important in determining the course of policymaking, shaping Americans' worldview, and redefining America's sense of self as a country in ways that profoundly influence the next 30-year interim period. Over the following interim period, various initiatives are undertaken in alignment with a guiding vision that reflects the renewed sense of self and purpose emerging from the preceding Manthan. Over the same period, various pressures also build up on America, either as direct or indirect results of the initiatives taken, or as a consequence of unrelated events that America has no control over, or as a combination of both.

The combination of pressures and initiatives then culminates in precipitating another Manthan, and so on.

Below I have listed my observations on the five Manthans that I believe to have occurred in American history from the end of the Civil War until the Present Day. I would love to hear your thoughts.

FIRST MANTHAN
1875-1880

In the aftermath of the American Civil War, both Lincoln and his successor Andrew Johnson were perceived as being overly conciliatory towards the South in order to sweep the past beneath the carpet and focus on the future. Particularly Johnson, who pardoned the secessionist leaders of the Confederacy, and turned a blind eye to paramilitary Southern militias (lie KKK and the Red Shirts) as they attempted to reinstate white supremacy and subjugate recently-freed blacks. Also, the Credit Mobilier scandal of 1872 was the first major financial scandal in the US to taint a large number of political figures (Congressmen), creating perhaps the first major deficit of public trust in the US.

In 1875, Johnson’s successor Ulysses Grant was in his second term. He had taken a much firmer hand with Reconstruction, and by 1870 enacted the 15th Amendment that prohibited (at least on paper) state or federal governments from denying blacks the right to vote. A no-nonsense President and former Union General who closed the Civil War chapter of US history, and set America’s sights on the great Westward expansion.

FIRST INTERIM PERIOD
1881-1909 (Pressures and Initiatives)

-Great Westward Expansion: violent extermination and ethnic cleansing of natives

-Consolidation of continental US territory

-Beginning of Women’s Suffrage movement

-Alfred Thayer Mahan publishes “Influence of Sea Power Upon History” in 1890

-US begins projecting power offshore and across both oceans. Spanish-American war victory leads to annexure of Puerto Rico, Cuba, and the Philippines. Hawaii is annexed in 1898.

-Huge influx of immigrants, mostly European (but also Indian and Chinese laborers) begins in 1890.

-Beginning of Industrial Capitalism in Urban Centres, and in networks (railroads) connecting the centres

-Immigrant and migrant black labor in US cities, facing exploitative conditions, begins to organize. Concurrently, Marxist thought is gaining currency in Europe. The rise of Labor Unions moves the urban masses leftwards.

-At the same time the rural farming areas, with mostly native-born population, grow more conservative and isolationist. This is the beginning of the urban left/rural right divide in the USA.

-Theodore Roosevelt, second-last president of this interim period, had three important features to his legacy:

>>Building the Panama Canal (and further consolidation of US influence over Latin America through economic, military and political interventions.)
>>Diplomatic outreach to various trans-Pacific Asian states including Korea, China, and importantly Japan (which became recognized as an industrial power following Meiji Restoration and the 1905 war with Russia). He also normalized relations with UK and initiated the “special relationship” in its modern form.
>>Government investment in many initiatives including railroads, national parks/monuments; battling with corporations such as Standard Oil to enforce government regulation upon industry.

-Theodore Roosevelt was thus a colonialist/imperialist in terms of foreign policy, and a Keynesian liberal on domestic policy. A very Hillary Clinton type figure. He split the Republican Party away from its conservative wing, forming the progressive “Bull Moose Party”.

SECOND MANTHAN
1910-1915

Taking advantage of the split amongst Republicans, the Democrats won the White House for the first time in 16 years, installing Woodrow Wilson as President in 1913.

His Presidency marked the second periodic “manthan” or great re-evaluation of America’s sense of itself (socially, politically and culturally). While initially preferring an isolationist course, he not only was persuaded to join the 1st World War on the side of Britain and France, but eventually became a key proponent of the Treaty of Versailles and the League of Nations.
His name continues to be attached to the “Wilsonian” school of thought in US Foreign Policy. These are Ideological Expansionists, who believe that the US should intervene in other countries not just by controlling international trade, but by using all forms of strength to create a world where other nations invariably look to the US for ideological leadership (i.e. willingly subject themselves to a global Pax Americana).

SECOND INTERIM PERIOD
1916-1944 (Pressures and Initiatives)

-Women gain right to vote in the 19th Amendment, 1920

-Immigration Acts of 1917 and 1924 greatly restrict the influx of foreign immigrants, ending the first wave that had begun in the 1890s.

-Ku Klux Klan, Red Shirts, and openly White Supremacist organizations enjoy a great resurgence in all parts of the country.

-Beginning in 1913, several laws enforcing racial segregation in social/economic/political spheres of life, directed in particular against black Americans, are enacted. These are known as the Jim Crow laws, and effectively reverse the intentions set forth in Grant’s 15th Amendment.

-Russian Revolution of 1919 sets shockwaves of panic among the US elite; Wilsonian interventionism in foreign countries on strictly ideological grounds, specifically anti-Communism, now becomes enshrined in US policy.

-Scopes Trial verdict is a win for modern science education in schools over Christian conservatism (evolution, not creationism, is adopted in the science curricula)

-Massive increase in urbanization, post-WWI booms in automotive/film/radio/chemical industries create a period of great economic prosperity in the 1920s. Ironically the deaths of 675000 Americans in the 1918 influenza epidemic is thought to have had a robust positive effect on per capital economic growth.

-1929 Wall Street Crash signals the end of the boom.

-1930: Smoot-Hawley Tariff act, which legislates wide-ranging protectionist measures, exacerbates the Great Depression.

-1933: Glass-Steagall act, separating Commercial (Retail) and Investment Banking is enacted. This reform comes too late to avoid the Great Depression, but its repeal later on will lead to the 2008 financial crisis.

-1933 Franklin Roosevelt (FDR) becomes the President. Similar to Teddy Roosevelt, he follows strongly Keynesian-Interventionist policies at home. Enacts the New Deal. Establishes Social Security and Medicare. Invests government money heavily in infrastructure and job creation.

-In foreign policy, there is intense debate on whether to get involved with the coming conflict in Europe or to stay aloof from it. The America First party champions the cause of isolationism.

-Ultimately FDR declares war on the Axis Powers following Pearl Harbor in 1941. The attack is carried out by the Imperial Japanese: the same government that Teddy Roosevelt established good relations with, and saw as an important rising power in 1905.

- February 1945: Two lasting items in the legacy of FDR, who dies shortly afterwards:

>> Meeting with Ibn Saud, to ensure that future oil trade will be USD denominated.
>> Yalta Conference with Churchill and Stalin

THIRD MANTHAN
1945-1950

The US ends WWII by dropping the atomic bomb on Japan. In 1948, Israel is established, and develops a very influential lobby that shapes America's Middle East policy for decades to come. In 1949, China becomes the PRC.

Left alone as a Western Superpower following the devastation of Colonial European countries and the crumbling of their empires after WWII, the US is also in crisis at the loss of a beloved and history-shaping leader, FDR. Harry Truman endeavours to live up to his old boss’ legacy while negotiating the post WW2 world order.

Many institutions are established in order to sustain US global dominance over the forthcoming world order. The IMF and World Bank are created at Bretton Woods, 1946. The United Nations is created on the heels of Yalta. Shortly thereafter, the Cold War begins. Isolationism collapses. Wilsonian Interventionism has clearly won.

In general, I will refer to events much more briefly from here on, because we’re already familiar with most of them.

THIRD INTERIM PERIOD
1951-1979 (Pressures and Initiatives)

-Assassination of Mossadegh and imposition of Shah’s rule in Iran. Similar CIA-driven interventions bring about regime change in a number of strategically important countries

-NATO, CENTO, and SEATO are formed. US engages with Pakistan in earnest, mostly at the behest of Olaf Caroe, Phillip Noel-Baker, and other British strategists.

-Korean conflict against PRC, USSR and North Korea leads to a stalemate

-Internally a post-war industrial boom brings unprecedented prosperity to (White) America in the 1950s. The GI Bill makes higher education available and affordable to more young men than ever before. Also, the “baby boom” begins, creating a youth bulge in the US population a few decades hence.

-Cuban Revolution and Cuban Missile Crisis

-Kennedy Assassination

-Second wave feminist movement begins in 1963 and advocates for equality of women in the economy and the workplace.

-Civil Rights Act signed by Lyndon Johnson, at the end of a long struggle by black Civil Rights activists to overturn Jim Crow discrimination and segregation.

-Johnson also signs the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, opening up immigration to Asians, Africans etc. Thus the Johnson regime reversed two important legislations that had determined the demographic composition and racial hierarchy of the US since their adoption 35-40 years previously.

-As a result of mandatorily ending housing discrimination, blacks move into more widespread, formerly-white urban neighbourhoods. Whites move out of cities into suburbs. This creates a new geographic divide that overlays the racial and economic divide in US society.

-Another direct result is the adoption of the Southern Strategy by the Republican Party. Johnson, a Democrat, alienates white-supremacist/racial-preservationist electorates of the Southern States who traditionally voted Democrat. The Republican party moves in to seize voter share amongst these Southern White electorates.

-Vietnam conflict 1964-75. Like the Spanish-American war of 1898 (First Interim Phase), this war is initiated by the US on a pretext (Gulf of Tonkin Incident) involving the alleged sinking of a ship. However the war turns out very differently.

-1968 onwards: Cultural Marxism makes its inroads into college campuses. A new left extremism, especially among student agitators, sweeps across campuses and city streets. Many of the “baby boomer” youth are involved in this. Conversely, there is a right-wing reaction in the rural areas and amongst blue-collar classes in urban areas.

-Ascension of Henry Kissinger, 1968. Various political assassinations also take place (Robert Kennedy etc.)

-1968: The NPT is signed to limit the “proliferation” of nuclear weapons technology beyond the P5 nations.

-Nixon outreach to PRC, 1971-2

-Oil shock, 1973

-Watergate scandal, 1974

-Gerald Ford pardons Nixon, deepening public cynicism about government corruption and criminal-political nexus.

-1979: Jimmy Carter’s presidency is besieged by
>> Further economic repercussions of oil shock
>> Iranian Revolution (a direct result of Mossadegh assassination) and hostage crisis
>> Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

FOURTH MANTHAN:
1980-85

The Ronald Reagan era. Reagan takes a hard line against the USSR, and adopts an unapologetically anti-regulation/pro-capitalist policy domestically. While taxes are cut, and social safety nets are slashed, government investment in the military is hugely expanded, leading to spiraling deficits. Yet, Reagan’s successful branding of having ushered in an optimistic era (“it’s Morning in America”) captures the public imagination and he is re-elected to a second term as President.

The Fourth Manthan is an economic, social, and political reaction to the aftermath of Cultural Marxism at home and the growing power of the USSR abroad.

FOURTH INTERIM PERIOD
1986-2014 (Pressures and Initiatives)

-America recruits an international Islamist front, helmed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to wage proxy jihad against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.

-Soviet Union withdraws from Afghanistan in 1989. Eastern Bloc collapses completely by 1991. Reagan is given the credit.

-Successful prosecution of 1st Gulf War alleviates the stigma against foreign military intervention that took root following Vietnam.

-East Asian Financial Crisis removes the spectre of economic domination by Japan, Korea, and other so-called Asian Tigers. These countries (particularly Japan) were regarded as looming threats during the Fourth Manthan, but are hereafter consigned to a prolonged period in the economic doldrums.

-America is the lone superpower in the Post-Cold-War world order. Bill Clinton (a baby boomer) becomes President. Unlike traditional Democrats he remains anti-regulation and enacts an aggressively globalist agenda, embracing PRC in particular. PRC rises to fill the vacuum left by Japan and the erstwhile Asian Tigers.

-EU and Eurozone are formed.

-NAFTA and APEC are established.

-The WTO is founded, replacing GATT.

-Intervention in the former Yugoslavia and further expansion of NATO push Russia into a corner.

-Internet becomes a feature of public life. The Digital Information Age begins.

-The proliferation of privately owned news channels leads to greater partisanship in the news media.

-Outsourcing of manufacturing to China, service sector jobs to India and other countries, and importation of H1-B skilled workers begins to erode and undermine the domestic job market.

-In 1999, the Glass-Steagall Act, first enacted under FDR in 1933, is repealed. Regulation of banking and financial industries is now virtually nonexistent.

-After a period of great prosperity in the 1990s, the dot com bubble bursts. GW Bush becomes President.

-9/11 Attacks

-Invasion of Afghanistan

-Invasion of Iraq, 2003

-US consciously adopts a policy of producing and exporting more energy from internal resources, so as to reduce global energy dependence on the Middle East and Russia.

-Nuclear Deal with India, 2007

- Financial Crisis of 2008 is the worst economic disaster for the US since the Great Depression, and a direct result of repealing Glass-Steagall nine years earlier.

-Barack Obama becomes President, breaking a glass ceiling in racial terms. However, he is conservative in fiscal terms and fully supports bailing out the big banks and corporations that precipitated the 2008 financial crisis. This causes many headaches for him down the line.

-Number of immigrants arriving annually from Latin American countries is enormously expanded, partly as a result of NAFTA.

-Slow recovery from the 2008 crisis is exacerbated by:

>>anti-globalisation sentiment
>> xenophobia and anti-immigration sentiment
>> the rise of a new identity politics and the centrality of racial/ethnic identity to both the Democratic and the Republican electoral coalitions.

-Obama is supported by a “rainbow coalition” of upper-middle-class-plus colleged-educated whites (mostly urban and suburban), Latinos, blacks, and immigrants (mostly non-white). The Tea Party is supported by middle-class-plus whites, mostly lacking higher education, in small towns, rural areas, and suburbs. The working-class whites of regions most adversely affected by globalization (such as the Midwestern rust-belt states) support Obama in 2008; they are mostly disillusioned (but fail to support his challenger Romney) in 2012. These are the broad contours of the electoral divide in the years leading up to the Fifth Manthan.

-Syrian conflict and rise of ISIS (with US-Saudi-GCC assistance) produces a refugee crisis in Europe.

-Putin adopts an assertive stance against NATO expansion and US globalist maneuvering in the Middle East, with strong military intervention in Ukraine and Syria.

-PRC becomes increasingly aggressive and expansionist in the Indo-China Sea. It takes full advantage of the Clinton-era embrace to steal US technology wherever possible, and pursues unfairly asymmetric trade practices, greatly enlarging its trade surplus with the US.

FIFTH MANTHAN
2015-2020

This is the current period. We are seeing another inflection point (or rather, inflection corridor) at which the US periodically reassesses its place in the world, its role in domestic and global history, and its very nature as a nation-state in political and economic terms.
We all know what happened, but briefly, the working-class white swing vote (pro-Obama in 2008, abstaining in 2012) switched its support to the Trump coalition in 2016. Trump became the President.

I don’t want to get into what this means for the immediate future, mainly because I don’t think we can see the immediate future any more clearly than the shape of a body of water we are currently immersed in. There is a high noise-to-signal ratio driven by our own political preferences, and our own immediate reactions to news stories that may turn out to have great import or no consequence at all.

What I want to ask is this.

If my theory about the 35-year-periodicity of American “Manthans” or disruptive churnings of reinvention is accurate, the NEXT (6th) Manthan will come about in approximately 2050-55.

This is far enough away that (counter-intuitively) we may be able to speculate about it a little more clearly.

We don’t know exactly what the Sixth Manthan will involve. However, we can perhaps take educated guesses about some events in the Fifth Interim Period that will prove instrumental in driving the Sixth Manthan one way or the other.

What would those be?

Here are just a few thoughts:

2028: India will become the world’s third largest economy.
2032: China stands poised to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy.
2045: the US will become Minority White (and the white population will be aging—though it will still have economic power concentrated substantially in its hands)

Please contribute your own.

ramana
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 16 Aug 2018 04:53

Good constructive effort.
Joel Kotkin of Chapman Uty, Los Angles, in his book 'Tribes' tries to study the 2050 and beyond era,

Suraj
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Suraj » 16 Aug 2018 05:26

Excellent post from Rudradev. As far as size of economy goes, well that depends on the measure. By one measure (PPP), India is already the 3rd largest economy in the world by a long distance, and has been so for years now. What's more interesting in the late 2020s is that the US will, at least by one metric no longer be one of the top 2 largest economies in the planet. By then, India will supplant the US as #2 in PPP terms, and will #3 in nominal terms. At that time, the US and India will be similar positions: India #2 in PPP GDP to US #3, while US is #2 in nominal GDP to India's #3. The end of the 5th interim period will also be the point where the US is no longer within the top 2 in any measure of GDP, with China and India regaining their historical 1-2 positions.

ramana
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 16 Aug 2018 08:41

Suraj, You still have those charts you made in the early 2000 decade on BRICs report? If so can you post your preceptive charts?

Suraj
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Suraj » 16 Aug 2018 10:14

They are probably far out of date, and I think we did better than those projections, as of present date :) I will have to dig and see if I can find them.

ramana
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby ramana » 16 Aug 2018 10:16

Thanks. Just want to point to folks you did great stuff and we did discuss all this.

Prem
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Prem » 16 Aug 2018 10:44

Suraj wrote:They are probably far out of date, and I think we did better than those projections, as of present date :) I will have to dig and see if I can find them.

I think projections were till 2020. We may be off by Trillion or so because of MMS .

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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Singha » 16 Aug 2018 11:08

can someone do a similar Manthanic analysis of china?

they too seem to oscillate between periods of stability and then a sudden 'great leap/disruption' - with the only diff being each great 'leap' kills or marginalizes millions of their own people . i am counting the millions of rural babies that public health workers killed by salt injection to the head for violating 1-c rule even as their economy was hockey stick curving up.

murica manages these transitions and course corrections better - more like a high level ops review and decisive moves are mandated. they have the advantage of being agnostic to no ideology, caste, creed, land other than the noble cause of making money and 'doing whatever it takes' to get it done.

for a gorilla , murica pivots very fast. saddam-ji went from their homie to a pariah in about 1 month. same for assad.

here is john kerry secy of state dining with him while planB was already funded and kinetic :roll:

murica is a very polished and dangerous enemy for cheen.

Image

Suraj
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Re: Understanding the US- Again

Postby Suraj » 16 Aug 2018 12:05

I found the old BRIC paper. It projected India's GDP as $2.1 trillion in 2020. We're at $2.7 trillion as of 2017 . So, as I mentioned, we're ahead of projections by quite a bit. By 2020 we're more likely to be where we were projected to be in 2025.

Also, note that this is all despite the Rupee continuously weakening for a while now. Let's say the Rupee was 60/$. GDP would be $3.1 trillion instead of $2.7 trillion. If exchange rate was 55/$, it would be $3.4 trillion. These are numbers for the last fiscal year, based on assumed stronger Rupee for these examples.


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