MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[Rakesh]

Amid Indigenous Tejas Mk-2's Development, SAAB Offers Single-Engine Gripen E For IAF's 114 Advanced Fighter Jet Contract
https://swarajyamag.com/defence/amid-in ... t-contract
28 August 2023

The likelihood of IAF purchasing the Gripen E jet in the competition is quite low. This is due to the fact that the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) are currently working on the development of a single-engine Tejas Mk-2, which falls within the same weight class as the Gripen E. Operating two aircraft of the same weight class, both powered by the same American General Electric (GE) F414 jet engine, could have a negative impact on the Tejas Mk-2 development program. Furthermore, twin-engine fighters like the F-15EX, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, and Russian Su-35 offer longer range, superior kinematics, and greater payload capability compared to the single-engine Gripen E.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/SaabIndia/status/16 ... 11/photo/1

Saab will offer 114 state-of-the-art Gripen E fighters as a part of its response to the upcoming IAF RFP. With Gripen E, India will get next-generation combat air capability and world-class availability - ready to face any threat, any time, anywhere, from any dispersed location.

https://twitter.com/Aryan_warlord/statu ... 45789?s=20 ---> The Gripen E is an extremely advanced & capable aircraft. That said, it is unlikely to make the grade simply because it has too much in common with the Tejas Mk1A. Also Sweden is a geopolitical lightweight & any strategic relationship will not bring significant benefit as compared with France, USA or even Russia. The French have practically won this already with the @SAFRAN engine technology co development offer and potential for Barracuda technology to flow into the Indian SSN program. Rest is purely bureaucratic niceties!

[rajsunder]

https://twitter.com/SaabIndia/status/16 ... 11/photo/1

https://twitter.com/Aryan_warlord/statu ... 45789?s=20 ---> The Gripen E is an extremely advanced & capable aircraft. That said, it is unlikely to make the grade simply because it has too much in common with the Tejas Mk1A. Also Sweden is a geopolitical lightweight & any strategic relationship will not bring significant benefit as compared with France, USA or even Russia. The French have practically won this already with the @SAFRAN engine technology co development offer and potential for Barracuda technology to flow into the Indian SSN program. Rest is purely bureaucratic niceties!

SAAB missed the bus when it declined to provide consulting for MK2.

[Prem Kumar]

If Rafale is the winner, why not cut to the chase and go for a G2G negotiation?

Heck, just combine it with the Rafale-M negotiation. Why waste time and then claim "swindling squadrons"?

If there is an actual MRFA RFP all over again, it will be a joke. What the heck was the purpose of MMRCA then?

Methinks the IAF, for whatever reasons, wants the Gripen. But the MoD is letting them know gently that its Rafale. But all this waltzing is costing us time & money

[Rakesh]

If Rafale is the winner, why not cut to the chase and go for a G2G negotiation?

Heck, just combine it with the Rafale-M negotiation. Why waste time and then claim "swindling squadrons"?

If there is an actual MRFA RFP all over again, it will be a joke. What the heck was the purpose of MMRCA then?

Methinks the IAF, for whatever reasons, wants the Gripen. But the MoD is letting them know gently that its Rafale. But all this waltzing is costing us time & money.

If you want to know who the winner of the MRFA is, then don't look at just the aircraft being offered. But rather, what of strategic value is coming with this MRFA contract? Strategic Value = Turbofan for AMCA. Therefore, do the process of elimination...

1) Which company/country can India partner with in a JV for the AMCA turbofan?
- France (Safran)
- UK (Rolls Royce)
- US (General Electric)

The Gripen E is powered by a GE F414 turbofan. What value can Sweden provide here? Gripen E is out. And Mother Russia is involved in a war in Ukraine. What value can they provide in a JV for a turbofan? The MiG-35 and Su-35 are also out. Because Sweden and Russia have nothing to provide, that leaves only US (F-21, F-15EX), UK (Typhoon) and France (Rafale).

2) Which company is currently under investigation by the CBI for allegations of corruption in the BAe Hawk deal?

- Rolls Royce of the United Kingdom.

So Typhoon is out. So now the list comes down to three aircraft --> US (F-21, F-15EX) and France (Rafale)

3) IAF is insisting on a local turbofan for the AMCA Mk2.

- The EPE variant of the GE F414 will not make the cut, as that would be a no-go for the IAF. They want a local turbofan and Air HQ will not accept an uprated F414 turbofan. So F-15EX and F-21 are also out, unless GE is willing to partner with GTRE to develop a 110kN turbofan. Unlikely.

Who is left? And NaMo's visit to France in July sealed that deal. An announcement will be made post the 2024 General Elections. With regards to your comment about "waltzing is costing us time and money", I point you to the recent comment from the CEO of Dassault ---> "With India, you have to be patient." There is no other way around this, other than playing the waiting game.

The JV for the AMCA turbofan is not going to be inexpensive. This is a decade long, multi-billion dollar investment. The only way to reduce that cost - via offsets - is to tie in strategic requirements with the 114 MRFA contract. India cannot afford a stand alone JV engine program with one country plus invest in a separate program for 114 MRFA with another country plus invest in a separate program for 26 MRCBF with yet another country.

One (Reliable) Country, One (Reliable) Vendor to check off multiple boxes. That is the end goal for the GoI.

The above are political considerations for the GoI and even the Indian Air Force. There are technical considerations which also favour Rafale (but can be hotly contested by the other OEMs), but that is a separate discussion and will not be applicable to this particular post of mine.

This is not a politics thread, but I will say this ---> Remember the desperation (by the opposition) to get NaMo charged with corruption in the first Rafale deal? This was part of the ultimate goal to eliminate Dassault (via blacklisting) from supplying fighter aircraft to the Indian Air Force. Once you remove Dassault from the picture, it is a clear path for the other Euro Canard (Typhoon) and the American birds. That did not happen. India's true enemy lives within her borders. India's opposition is infested with boot lickers.

[Rakesh]

See this joint (and official) press release from PM Modi's visit to France in July 2023.

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/16 ... 10688?s=20 ---> Biggest takeaway in the India-France joint communiqué: the 2 countries will co-develop a combat aircraft engine (for India’s AMCA). As I said before, in terms of substance, this goes further, deeper and way beyond any procurement deal. Unprecedented.

[Rakesh]

What was always known to everyone ----> the F-21 is not passing muster with the Indian Air Force.

Even as IAF moves in for 97 more Tejas, its eyes firmly set on MRFA but awaits govt signal
https://theprint.in/defence/even-as-iaf ... l/1798969/
11 Oct 2023

Rafale, F-15EX & the Gripen are the 3 main contenders with the front-runner being French Rafale fighter jets, 36 of which were inducted into the force under emergency procurement in 2016.

[Rakesh]

France Hopes to Best US in New India Fighter Race, Betting on Existing Rafale Sales, Tech Flexibility
https://thewire.in/security/france-us-f ... ech-rafale
12 Oct 2023

Today, Indian diplomats, security officials and analysts say it is less ‘arduous’ conducting materiel commerce with Paris than with Washington, as the former is more flexible and pragmatic than the latter, especially with regard to transferring hi-tech military knowhow and passing on source-codes that manage fighter weapon and flight control systems. The US, for its part, remains constrained by rigid export regulations in this regard and hidebound by personal political and diplomatic considerations over platform deployments. France, on the other hand, is more ‘relaxed’ on all these counts, displaying a Gallic savoir faire that strategically suits India, even if its equipment ends up being relatively more expensive.

[Rakesh]

French aviation magazine claiming that the Rafale (F4 variant in particular) has won the MRFA contest. They predicted the same for the MRCBF contest as well, with the Rafale M ending up as the winner over the F-18SH. Below is the article, albeit translated from French into English via Google Translate...so there are some quirky translations below, but you will get the gist

THE DASSAULT AVIATION RAFALE F4 MADE THE ARCH FAVORITE OF THE INDIAN MRFA COMPETITION
https://www.avionslegendaires.net/2023/ ... enne-mrfa/
12 Oct 2023

Even the English-speaking aviation media agree: the French plane is the darling of Indian decision-makers. Four days after Eric Trappier's trip to New Delhi the signals are now clearly green for the Dassault Aviation Rafale F4 with the Indian Air Force. Of its original seven competitors only two are believed to still be competing, one from the United States and the second from Sweden . The MRFA program is also announced as a slap in the face to the American group Lockheed-Martin and its Russian competitor UAC.

But what exactly is this MRFA program? Called MMRCA 2.0 in the summer of 2015, in order to swallow the pill of the cancellation a few days earlier of the MMRCA program, for Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft , it constitutes the possibility for several international aircraft manufacturers to compete around a tempting promise: the supply of 114 multirole combat aircraft to India. Understanding that MMRCA 2.0 was a term that did not necessarily resonate with so-called manufacturers, the Indian Air Force transformed it last year into MRFA, for Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft. This doesn't change much at first glance except that it no longer necessarily raises a question of size and mass in the competing planes.

The manufacturers who competed were always the same: Boeing, Dassault Aviation, Eurofighter, Lockheed-Martin, Mikoyan, Saab, and Sukhoi. Very quickly, however, Indian public opinion, always so picky about weapons issues, noticed a major absence: the F-35A Lightning II. In fact, not believing that India had strong enough backs for it, the aircraft manufacturer Lockheed-Martin preferred the F-21A. It is in fact the good old F-16V Viper equipped with local avionics developed by the Tata group and promised to be 80% local machining. Except that fundamentally an F-16V Viper is nothing more or less than a General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon revised and corrected with Lockheed-Martin style in order to prolong its marketing. In no case can it replace a 5th generation fighter like the F-35A in a competition.

As many Indian experts have pointed out, even if it means being interested in a light single-jet combat aircraft, as long as it is of a more recent design than the F-16. This is why the Saab JAS 39E/F Gripen remains in the competition while the Lockheed-Martin / Tata candidacy around the F-21A has more and more lead in the wing. The entry into service of the Swedish aircraft within the Força Aérea Brasileira also served as a demonstration of its real capabilities. At the same time, the Russian industrial group UAC seems in as bad a position as Lockheed-Martin. Its MiG-35 Fulcrum-F and Su-35 Flanker-E have not only failed to convince but also the delivery faults and delays in spare parts play greatly to their disadvantage. To Russia's great misfortune, the MRFA program falls at the same time as the war against Ukraine and its democratic sovereignty. As a result, UAC is paying the price for the sanctions voted by the Allies.

For Boeing the MRFA program is a double international confirmation. The first is that its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is completely finished on export markets. The second that its F-15EX Eagle II is on the other hand perfectly designed to face the French Dassault Aviation Rafale F4 on these same export markets. The first Boeing fighter was eliminated while the second is still in the running. And by the admission of many experts, the Eagle II is today the only combat aircraft which on the MRFA program could make Eric Trappier and his teams doubt. However, the Rafale F4 has been the overwhelming favorite for two years on this program.

Ok the Indians like to keep the fun going in their competitions. In France, the people at Dassault Aviation know something about it. Their boss was not in New Delhi this week exclusively to talk about the future of the Rafale F4 with the Indian Air Force but also to refine the contract for twenty-six on-board machines intended for the Indian Navy and whose order was revealed on July 14 by Prime Minister Modi himself.

In fact the final confrontation between the Boeing F-15EX Eagle II and the Dassault Aviation Rafale F4 will take place, if of course it must take place, without the Saab JAS 39E/F Gripen. Because here too, in a very Indian logic, it is still in competition even though the Indian Air Force recently announced that it was no longer considering equipping itself with single-jet engines still equipped with Dassault Aviation Mirage 2000Is of French origin and currently receiving its indigenously designed and manufactured HAL Tejas Mk-1s. And Hindustan Aircraft Limited could well help, in its own way, Dassault Aviation to shut down Boeing once and for all on this contract. Indeed, if it was rumored just a few months ago that the Indian aircraft manufacturer would assemble the French twin-jet under local license, this rumor is now so omnipresent that one could almost say that it is being shouted. This is undoubtedly the key to success in India: not to underestimate the Indians and their industrial capacity. On a very personal level, I prefer to see Rafale F4s bearing the Indian roundel and manufactured under license by HAL than F-15EXs displaying the same Indian nationality markings and built in the United States. And yet I like the Eagle II. But not as much as the Rafale.

To this day the Indians say they want to move quickly. After a little over 8 years of competition we can only understand them too well. And clearly it is now said that the announcement of the winner will be made before the end of the calendar year 2023. For almost all Indian aeronautical, defense and financial media it is clear that the champagne* will flow freely on the side of Saint-Cloud and Mérignac.

Obviously something to follow.

[Rakesh]

The F-15EX is one of the three leading contenders - the other two being the Rafale and Gripen E - in the MRFA contest.

As F-15EX price tags rise, Boeing hunts for ways to control costs
https://www.defenseone.com/business/202 ... ts/391786/
03 Nov 2023

https://x.com/alexgarcialonso/status/17 ... 30979?s=20 ---> "The new data shows the F-15EX to cost more than the Air Force is paying for its F-35s (...) the per-plane price is expected to be $97 million in Lot 3 and $94 million in Lot 4. The cost of each F-35A in production lots 15 through 17 is $82.5 million."

[AkshaySG]

Do we just have alternatives for the sake of it?.. Because I do not see by what logic Gripen and F-15 can both be contenders for the same competition

At least in the original MMRCA Typhoon and Rafale were somewhat similar.

[Rakesh]

Do we just have alternatives for the sake of it?.. Because I do not see by what logic Gripen and F-15 can both be contenders for the same competition

At least in the original MMRCA Typhoon and Rafale were somewhat similar.

If you are looking for logic in the MRFA contest, I am sorry to say...but you are not going to find any.

What started out as a proposal for a Mirage 2000 production line in India (early 2000s) has morphed into a circus show with multiple acts (the MMRCA contest, the SE contest and now the MRFA contest). In the 2+ decades since, a lot has changed. License production of 126 Mirage 2000s was proposed to replace the large and aging MiG-21 fleet in the IAF. That never materialized and countless lives have been lost operating aircraft that were not ideal. The only silver lining in this sordid saga - in 2023 - is that the Tejas Mk1A is set to take over the role of replacing the large (and now almost retired) MiG-21 fleet in two tranches - 83 airframes (confirmed) and another 97 airframes (planned).

Air HQ has also realized that license production of a phoren fighter is fraught with multiple pitfalls - budgets, political, technical and even geopolitical - that need to be overcome. That is easier said than done in the topsy turvy political world of modern India. Multiple agendas are being pushed by various factions, both within and outside the country. What was initially designed to address the acute squadron shortage has now morphed into a contest that requires the IAF to acquire a fighter aircraft that can prevail over what the PLAAF is inducting. That dramatically increases the cost and complexity of the overall deal, while forcing Air HQ to reduce the numbers which will eventually be acquired.

IMVHO, the contest is really between two main contenders - the F-15EX and the Rafale F4. Rest are there (including the Gripen E) solely to provide the appearance of the MRFA acquisition being a "fair" contest. None of the others will make the cut. The IAF wants a twin-engine, LO aircraft that can break down the door, conduct precision strike and combined with a high degree of survivability. With the Safran-GTRE JV venture for a 110kN turbofan + the deal for the Rafale M for the Indian Navy, my guess is that it will be the Rafale that will win again.

In addition, this line of thinking ---> "42 squadrons is required for full spectrum of operations..." is soon going to change with unmanned aircraft/drones taking over many of the dangerous strike roles. What was insurmountable for India, is now achievable. And I say this without any jingoism. It will become a necessity when the PLAAF (and even the PAF) starts adopting this capability into her own fleets. And necessity is the mother of invention. HAL already has a capable program in the works i.e. Combat Air Teaming System. The IAF will hover around ~35 "manned" squadrons for the forseeable future with a sizeable fleet of unmanned aircraft/drones.

P.S. With the Super Sukhoi upgrade on the anvil, what purpose will the F-15EX really serve?

[Cain Marko]

I guess the Russians have gotten wind of the F-15EX becoming a "major contender", and have now upped the ante by offering the Su-57...the circus goes on.

[Rakesh]

I guess the Russians have gotten wind of the F-15EX becoming a "major contender", and have now upped the ante by offering the Su-57...the circus goes on.

Source?

[Pratyush]

The logical question to ask would be --> why procure the F-15EX? When a Super Su-30MKI can be created using the AL-41 and the latest Indian avionics?

The technology developed for the new aircraft can easily feed the AMCA program as well.

[Rakesh]

Since this is a comedy thread, here is "reportedly" the latest turn of events in this comedy....

Twitter is abuzz with rumours that Air HQ wants to scrap the MRFA thread in favour of 90 Rafale F4s with an option for another 36 more.

Just take it as comedy value onlee This is like an Abbas–Mustan Bollywood thriller. The twists and turns this story plot takes!

[rajsunder]

Saw one of the videos of major gaurav arya, even he has be bagged by the import lobby. He was asking for F-21 import, saying GOI has enough money.

[rajkumar]

Saw one of the videos of major gaurav arya, even he has be bagged by the import lobby. He was asking for F-21 import, saying GOI has enough money.

Unfortunately Major Arya is in danger of going the way of Col Shukla