CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

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CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Postby kit » 04 Jun 2018 10:55

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/caatsa-us-trying-make-russia-hurt

Under Section 231 of CAATSA, any third-country firm or individual that engages in a "significant transaction" with Russia's defense or intelligence sectors will face a penalty. Companies and individuals can apply for an exemption from the sanctions. Getting one, however, would require U.S. authorities to certify not only that the exemption would not harm the United States' national security interests but also that Russia had made "significant efforts to reduce the number and intensity of cyber intrusions."

The waiver could draw unwanted attention to countries engaged in trade with Russia and give Washington leverage to try to exact concessions from them.

Regardless of the snags in its implementation, CAATSA demonstrates that the United States is more strident than ever in pushing other countries to reduce their defence and energy ties with Russia.

If push comes to shove, India will not sacrifice its relationship with Russia. Instead, it will try to compromise with the United States by purchasing more U.S. arms or by signing the two outstanding foundational defense agreements with the country. Despite its historical links with Moscow, New Delhi has expanded its security and economic relationship with the United States over the past two decades to try to increase its clout in the global system. Their ties are now strong, and India increasingly relies on the United States to balance China's rise in Asia. As a result, Washington has greater leverage over New Delhi, which, in turn, is more vulnerable to CAATSA's stipulations than Beijing is. In the longer run, however, the CAATSA process could rekindle anti-American sentiment in the Indian defense bureaucracy and the political class, two decades after a reset in U.S.-Indian relations consigned such nationalism to the margins.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Austin » 04 Jun 2018 11:04

Stratfor is a US Think Tank run by ex CIA people which puts US pov on how we should do business with them , All good and nice but that is not an Indian pov

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby kit » 04 Jun 2018 11:04

Idea of this thread is to explore what possibilities / extent / options India will have now and at later stages .. weaning away from America seems to be the only credible option in the long run

CAATSA with or without a waiver remains a problem which is at best taken for what it is ..not ignored

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Austin » 04 Jun 2018 11:09

kit wrote:Idea of this thread is to explore what possibilities / extent / options India will have now and at later stages .. weaning away from America seems to be the only credible option in the long run


Well they are blackmailing India via CAATSA and wants an unequal partnership with us where they are free to dictate the terms of the partnership with India while at the same time wanting us to purchase more US def equipment so as to make us more dependent on them in longer run , they want us to be their vassal and chaukidar for IOR , Typical US behaviour even with allies like EU and Turkey.

Economically there are putting tariff barriers on us with no chance of getting exemption

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby kit » 04 Jun 2018 12:30

The issue is to choose future deals with the US carefully..with a prospect of sanctions built in .it certainly is not if but When they will sanction India

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Neshant » 04 Jun 2018 12:43

CAATSA is coming from defence company lobbyists in the US - whom are second only to bank lobbyists in influence.

Pushing Russia out of the global arms market means tens of billions more in prospective sales the world over.

NATO countries will support it since the major EU countries are also defence manufacturers and stand to gain as well.

This is where you land up when you keep buying foreign armaments for decades from other countries and sink domestic projects like the IAF did with Marut and almost did with Tejas. No domestic capability to produce weapons since bags and bags of money are handed off to foreign arms companies subsidizing their R&D base at India's expense.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby kit » 04 Jun 2018 13:17

Only option is make nuclear arms a priority and continue to indigenise military equipment. Focus on economy .

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 04 Jun 2018 23:04

US may block sale of Armed Drones as India is buying arms from Russia


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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Austin » 04 Jun 2018 23:17

US will keep blackmailing India till we give up on their demand and sign on COMCASA ......They pursue a carrot and stick policy first dangle the carrot if that does not work then use the big stick.

Imagine the next move US delays or stops supplies of Spares to Indian armed forces ....which is part of CAATSA provision .....Such blackmail is in a way good for any one romanticizing buying big ticket items from US in the near future and what to expect.

Modi has responded so far strongly on this , There is also an economic dimension to it here with tarrif barrier ,anti-dumping etc

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby eklavya » 04 Jun 2018 23:37

^^^^^^
Interesting interview posted by Rakesh. I don’t think they have any appetite for sanctioning India at this juncture. If they symbolically cancel the potential Predator drone sale to India, they are essentially sanctioning themselves. Which would be idiotic.

I don’t understand what this “inter operability” tamasha is. Do they think we are naive? Let’s say we put S-400 to defend New Delhi, Mumbai, Jamnagar. What’s their issue? Not like they have any role defending these cities anyway.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 04 Jun 2018 23:45

IMHO, their issue is not with the S-400 per se. Their 'real' issue lies with India continuing to buy weaponry from Russia. Their whole excuse of interoperability lies in the premise of buy American and use American. Only in that way, can the American military industrial complex continue to thrive. All this talk - which a few on this forum have peddled or bought into - about revolutionizing India's aviation industry, is just an excuse to sell weaponry to India. Doing screwdrivergiri of the F-16, F-18 (or for that matter the Rafale, Eurofighter, MiG-35 or Gripen E) is going to do squat (basically nothing) for India's aviation industry.

Interoperability - to quote Admiral Sir Alan West, former First Sea Lord (their equivalent of Naval Chief) of the Royal Navy - to the Americans is...

I have talked with the CNO (Chief of Naval Operations) in America. He is very keen for us to get these because he sees us slotting in with his carrier groups. For example, in Afghanistan last year they had to call on the French to bail them out with their carrier. He really wants us to have these, but he wants us to have same sort of clout as one of their carriers, which is this figure at 36. He would find that very useful, and really we would mix and match with that.

— Admiral Sir Alan West, evidence to the Select Committee on Defence, 24 November 2004.

The above quote is in reference to the Queen Elizabeth Class of aircraft carriers. They fly the F-35B. The above solution works just fine for the Royal Navy. They are a poodle nation anyway.

So hopefully if the Indian Navy acquires the F-18, they can be interoperable with the US Navy. That is what they are peddling to us. However, that is an excuse to sell American weaponry to India. The US Navy can be interoperable just as effectively with any other naval platform. They did that in the most recent exercise with the Indian Navy, where our MiG-29Ks flew alongside their F-18 Super Hornets.

With the French, they have taken it one step further. The French aircraft carrier - Charles De Gaulle - is undergoing a refit. To keep their carrier skills active, the French Naval Air Arm has sent a detachment of Rafale Ms to fly off the USS George H.W. Bush - their tenth (and greatest) Nimitz Class aircraft carrier. Only the Gerald Ford Class exceeds her in capability and scope. See here;

French Naval Aviators Partner With U.S. Navy During Chesapeake 2018
https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Ar ... eake-2018/

The French navy has one aircraft carrier, the Charles De Gaulle, which is undergoing a maintenance period. Approximately 3,700 U.S. and 301 French sailors are working together to maintain, launch and recover aircraft to strengthen interoperability between U.S. and French naval forces during Chesapeake 2018.

So they definitely can be interoperable with any platform. The above is the *TRUE* meaning of interoperability. If the F-18 was so great, why the French not just buy that, instead of the Rafale M? They are just peddling this excuse to sell us their wares. And they think, we are idiots.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 05 Jun 2018 00:57

By the way, here is something to think about ---> We sign a contract for 110 F-16s or F-18s with Lockheed Martin or Boeing. Deliveries have begun, squadron training is underway, squadrons are being raised and then Amreekis get wind of the fact that we would like to acquire the S-400 from Russia. What do you think they will do then? At that point, they will have us by the balls.

NO to American fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby arshyam » 05 Jun 2018 08:16

^^ Well said, saar, in both of your posts above.

Where is the like button?

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Austin » 05 Jun 2018 10:02

Good Post Rakesh , Well Said , Cant put this any better , We need to protect our own strategic interest in the same way US does for itself.

I dont understand how this interoperability term is even getting used , we have tons of Russian equipment , Israel and French that is not interoperable with US system we havent signed COMCASA for the same reason in many years now , We some how try to interoperate when Su, Jags 29 etc fly to Redflag for exercise or when they fly here or when there is Malabar etc

So adding S-400 suddenly will bring the big question of Interoperability with them , Will USAF provide Top Cover to Indian Armedforce over Indian Airspace during war so that S-400 is interoperable with it ?

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Austin » 05 Jun 2018 10:09

Waiver for India unlikely on Russia sanctions

At present, the rule gives a 180-day reprieve, asking New Delhi to scale back its relations with Moscow
A clean legislative waiver for India from anti-Russia sanctions looks extremely difficult, if not impossible, several people lobbying lawmakers for changes in the law have told The Hindu.

India is caught in the crossfire as a bipartisan law, Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), requires the administration to impose sanctions on countries that have “significant” defence relations with Kremlin.

‘Other routes’

“Nobody in the Capitol Hill has the appetite to do anything that would be remotely seen as helping Russia, though in this case we are talking about helping India,” a Congressional staff member said. “A waiver appears out of reach. But there are other routes and we are hopeful of a resolution,” a business lobbyist working on the issue said, adding that there could be other means of ensuring that India’s defence ties with Russia does do not derail the expanding defence trade between India and the U.S.

An attempt is being made to have language written into the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) for 2019 that would enable the Donald Trump administration to protect India from sanctions. The U.S. House has passed NDAA 2019 already, the rules of which allows for waivers for 180 days, provided the administration certifies that the country in question is scaling back its ties with Russia.

This formulation in inadequate to resolve the Indian situation, sources familiar with ongoing conversations involving Indian diplomats, U.S. defence companies and business bodies and lawmakers, told The Hindu. “A waiver linked to rolling back ties with Russia won’t be seen as helpful by India,” an executive with a U.S defence company said.


Efforts are, however, still under way to insert provisions in the NDAA in Senate that might give the Trump administration more leeway in dealing with the situation, short of a clean waiver.

Mattis’s call

Apart from India, Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia are also caught in the same situation.


Secretary of Defence James Mattis had called for waiver provisions at the Secretary of State’s level.

“There are at least 2-3 different proposals under discussions with Senators still,” an official said. The Senate and House versions of the NDAA will be reconciled through a conference mechanism later.

Rep. Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, who was in India recently, has returned with an understanding that the proposed conditional waiver could be a dampener in ties with New Delhi, a source who interacted with him said.


Aggressive enforcement

With the midterm elections scheduled for later this year, Democrats are trying to push the Trump administration to the corner on the Russia question.

On May 24, during a hearing, Senator Bob Menendez pressed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for aggressive enforcement of CAATSA. Mr. Pompeo, countered with a question of his own: “Will you help Secretary Mattis get the waivers that he needs to make sure that these sanctions does not hit folks that I think were not intended to harmed by these sanctions?”

Mr. Menendez, the top Democrat in the committee, said he would consider the proposal.

Mr. Pompeo was specifically asked what he was doing to stop Turkey from buying Russian missile defence system S 400, which India is also planning to buy. “We are imploring Turkey to not buy,” Mr. Pompeo said.


Earlier last month, Mr. Menendez, and Senators Mark Warner and Sherrod Brown accused the Trump administration of lame enforcement of CAATSA and sought an inter-agency review. “In light of these apparent violations and the lack of corresponding sanctions actions, we are concerned about whether the sanctions implementation process within the administration is fulfilling CAATSA’s mandate and intent,” the Senators wrote in a letter.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby kit » 05 Jun 2018 12:29

Guess its a good policy for India to keep everything ready to test the moment Americans sanction India with some acronym .. a full and comprehensive series of Nuclear tests blasting away the Pokharan with enough data yield for simulation tests .. could be no better time !!

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby kit » 05 Jun 2018 12:30

at least it would give India a " full spectrum deterrence " :mrgreen:

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby ArjunPandit » 05 Jun 2018 12:33

US Could be also wary of the fact that S400 would be able to provide characteristics of key planes/drones to russians

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Austin » 05 Jun 2018 16:49

US told India's relationship with Russia is time tested: Sitharaman

https://www.thequint.com/hotwire-text/u ... sitharaman
New Delhi, June 5 (IANS) Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said that India has made it clear to the US that its relationship with Russia is lasting and the dynamics of Indo-US ties cannot influence it.

"I like to make it clear here that in all our engagements with the US, we have very clearly explained how India and Russia's defence cooperation has been going on for a very long time," Sitharaman said in response to a media query pertaining to the US advising India to not go ahead with purchasing S-400 anti-missile system from Russia.

"It's a time tested relationship and India has got quite a lot of defence assets from Russia. Assets, spares, servicing, we have a continuous relationship with Russia," she added.

She said the US sanctions against Russia would not be impacting "this particular characteristic of India-Russia defence cooperation".

She said that negotiations with Russia for S-400 were in the final stage.

"The S-400 deal has been on for a very long time and we have reached the final stage negotiations. That explains it all," Sitharaman said on whether India would still go ahead with the deal with Russia.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby chola » 05 Jun 2018 16:53

Whose fault is it that the stupid Russkies needed US dollars from us onlee? All would be no problem if they accepted rupees. They can use that to buy our rice and then sell to the chinis who eat lots of rice.

If you want to use Western hard currency then don’t do stuff like invading Ukraine.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Austin » 05 Jun 2018 17:11

chola wrote:Whose fault is it that the stupid Russkies needed US dollars from us onlee? All would be no problem if they accepted rupees. They can use that to buy our rice and then sell to the chinis who eat lots of rice.

If you want to use Western hard currency then don’t do stuff like invading Ukraine.


IT has nothing to do with accepting payments in USD or Euro or other currency , CATAASA law is to prevent any transaction of defence equipment between India and US , if India does buy like other countries it will be sanctioned period.

IT is a way of making India dependent on US equipment and then screwing our foreign policy and sanctioning India at their whips ...... The stupid Europeans and Turkey are now facing the same music because of arrogance of US.

Why doesnt US accept payment in Rupee for def equipment it sells to us , You can use the same logic of buy our rice and sell to chinis......and CAATSA has nothing to do with this.

US-Russia issue should not be solved as the expense of India and US Internal law is not Global Law to be followed by everybody

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby JTull » 05 Jun 2018 18:44

chola wrote:Whose fault is it that the stupid Russkies needed US dollars from us onlee? All would be no problem if they accepted rupees. They can use that to buy our rice and then sell to the chinis who eat lots of rice.

If you want to use Western hard currency then don’t do stuff like invading Ukraine.


Very uninformed remark!

Russia doesn't need India for US$. It is a major Oil and Gas exporter. Guess, which currency that business is done in!

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 05 Jun 2018 20:38

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1003846260476899328 ----> US-Russia tensions are quite understandable. Going forward, both are essentially competing for the same export markets: Resource supply to emerging economies and 'Geopolitical Services' rendered via their military-intelligence complexes.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby nvishal » 05 Jun 2018 21:08

eklavya wrote:Let’s say we put S-400 to defend New Delhi, Mumbai, Jamnagar. What’s their issue? Not like they have any role defending these cities anyway.

Not those cities.

Kashmir(and Arunachal eventually)

S-400 over Kashmir cuts Pakistan/China/US mischief. If Kashmir becomes unattainable (for China/Pak), the US losses leverage over india. Without Kashmir, a part of the Pakistani Sunni machinary will be attracted towards xinjiang.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby rsingh » 05 Jun 2018 21:31

JTull wrote:
chola wrote:Whose fault is it that the stupid Russkies needed US dollars from us onlee? All would be no problem if they accepted rupees. They can use that to buy our rice and then sell to the chinis who eat lots of rice.

If you want to use Western hard currency then don’t do stuff like invading Ukraine.


Very uninformed remark!

Russia doesn't need India for US$. It is a major Oil and Gas exporter. Guess, which currency that business is done in!


It means we can buy arms in Rupees? Nop. Russia NEED US$. And they need it very badly. West is reducing (or finding ways to reduce) its dependence on Russian Energy. EU is thinking of a mega solar power plant in North Africa. Electricity need are starting to go southwards. Govt are encouraging Solar or geothermal heating for houses. Diesel cars disappears in 2030. Petrol one in 2035. Russia know this.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby chola » 05 Jun 2018 22:57

Austin wrote:
chola wrote:Whose fault is it that the stupid Russkies needed US dollars from us onlee? All would be no problem if they accepted rupees. They can use that to buy our rice and then sell to the chinis who eat lots of rice.

If you want to use Western hard currency then don’t do stuff like invading Ukraine.


IT has nothing to do with accepting payments in USD or Euro or other currency , CATAASA law is to prevent any transaction of defence equipment between India and US , if India does buy like other countries it will be sanctioned period.


It has everything to do with the use of Amreeki dollars. If Russia accepts rupees or barter then there is no way for Unkil to “punish” us. The bluntest instrument from CATAASA is it makes banks holding dollars afraid to transfer funds to Russia.

If Russia accepted something else that India has lots of (like rupees) or simply bartered then there is nothing that Unkil could do. But Russia wants dollars and that is a problem of its own making. Why should the US facilitate easy buys for Russian gear?

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby eklavya » 06 Jun 2018 01:09

^^^^^
Chola, you are wrong. Under CAATSA, the US would have to punish India (unless they waived the punishment) even if we paid for Russian equipment with bartered goods. The form of US punishment remains to be seen e.g. no spares for C-130/C-17/P-8/LCA engine.

Now that this law exists, and India will wish to continue buying whatever we want to buy from Russia, in fact it hugely raises the risks for India to buy US equipment. In other words, this idiotic Americans law is an own goal.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Kakarat » 06 Jun 2018 01:53

CAATSA is not about using USD for trade with Russia it for controlling defense exports of Russia. US is not bothered about which currency you will be using to buy weapons from russia, they just dont want anyone to buy weapons from russia. Today its for S-400 then it will be the same for the frigates order then some other day they will come up with a new law and threaten sanctions for developing Agni or K-series or could be anything.

I hope India concludes the S-400 and the frigate deals soon & see what Americans do. I don't think the Americans would impose any sanctions on India but if they do it could in many ways help indigenous systems

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Cain Marko » 06 Jun 2018 10:03

Rakesh wrote:By the way, here is something to think about ---> We sign a contract for 110 F-16s or F-18s with Lockheed Martin or Boeing. Deliveries have begun, squadron training is underway, squadrons are being raised and then Amreekis get wind of the fact that we would like to acquire the S-400 from Russia. What do you think they will do then? At that point, they will have us by the balls.

NO to American fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force.

What about American engines on the LCA saar? This was probly an avoidable problem but alas they have made the choice. I sure hope the Frenchies come through.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Cain Marko » 06 Jun 2018 10:05

It is precisely for such reasons that I have been hoping for a modest two engine lca mk2, either some variant of the kaveri or some m88 based solution, expensive though it would be..

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Philip » 06 Jun 2018 10:24

Very true CM.Given the Yanquis track record, I've been saying for years not to depend solely upon US engines for the LCA and to have European alternatives.
Let the first sanctions come. I for one will be mighty pleased having been proved prophetic.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Cain Marko » 06 Jun 2018 11:08

Frankly I'm hoping against hope that modis recent words about no more hesitation in India US relationship, that too while he was with Putin, means that CAATSA will be duly navigated smoothly. Pompeo and mattis at least seem to be making the right noises. Bolt-on is ahem, the catch...

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby chetak » 06 Jun 2018 15:16

Rakesh wrote:By the way, here is something to think about ---> We sign a contract for 110 F-16s or F-18s with Lockheed Martin or Boeing. Deliveries have begun, squadron training is underway, squadrons are being raised and then Amreekis get wind of the fact that we would like to acquire the S-400 from Russia. What do you think they will do then? At that point, they will have us by the balls.

NO to American fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force.


wrt your post above, in the video, the amreki guy is indicating that the sale of anti missile technology from the US is a very likely possibility and he also seems to be suggesting that it would be the preferred way forward.

It is nothing but blatant US arm twisting for India to junk the S400 systems and buy good ole amreki stuff . The guy talking is the chairman of the senate armed services committee and these guys are twice born royalty in the US. He is really big gun being used by the US to sort out a minor issue and prior to his visit, India may have already hardened it's position regarding these "sanctions" and indicated that it will press on, regardless.

For a guy like this to actually make a trip to a third world outpost like dilli and appear on some smelly old Indian TV channel is a huge ask.

I think that Modi's recent visit to see putin has really panicked them and the visit to see xi has set the cat among the pigeons. Even a partial rapprochement with the chinese would put paid to amreki plans in the IOR and the SCS.

The lynchpin is the IN which they are trying so very hard to trap by technological inducements and convert it into an extension of their "Indo"-pacific command.

The surveillance drones being considered for sale is Navy specific is it not??

and now, we hear that the IN has reduced its presence for the exercise Malabar.

Something smells.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Kakarat » 06 Jun 2018 15:33

India has not reduced its presence in Malabar, It has always sent 3 to 4 ships for Malabar away and it is sending 3 ships and 1 P8i. also don't forget INS Kamorta is our premium ASW corvette and INS Sahyadri just won the best ship award. Ajai Shukla is just creating a story out of nothing

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Austin » 06 Jun 2018 20:56


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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 07 Jun 2018 02:46

Cain Marko wrote:
Rakesh wrote:By the way, here is something to think about ---> We sign a contract for 110 F-16s or F-18s with Lockheed Martin or Boeing. Deliveries have begun, squadron training is underway, squadrons are being raised and then Amreekis get wind of the fact that we would like to acquire the S-400 from Russia. What do you think they will do then? At that point, they will have us by the balls.
NO to American fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force.

What about American engines on the LCA saar? This was probly an avoidable problem but alas they have made the choice. I sure hope the Frenchies come through.

No need for dhoti shivering Cain-ji. Let me at the outset say this....they will not put *ANY* sanctions on India. To quote eklavya, it will be akin to shooting themselves in the foot. Personally, I would *LOVE* for them to put sanctions. I say sanction everything - F404, F414, spares for the P-8I, C-17 strategic transport, C- 130 tactical transport, stop deliveries of the AH-64 Apache, CH-47 Chinook, stop negotiations on the MH-60R naval helicopter...you see where I am going with this? :)

Sanctioning India for buying S-400 (or any other Russian strategic weapon) would make the political ruling class in India realize the UTTER FARCE that is the Indo-US strategic partnership. As chetak rightfully called it, this partnership is nothing more than an extension arm of the Indo-US Pacific Command. If our political rulers already have not discovered it - via CAATSA - they will definitely learn it, after sanctions are imposed. But the Americans will not impose sanctions on India and I will explain later on in my post. But first let us talk about CAATSA itself.

To *WHOLLY* understand CAATSA, one must understand who *REALLY* wants CAATSA enforced? It is the Democrats in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. The Republicans - in both governing institutions - are dead against it, as is the US Admnistration. CAATSA after all is designed to punish Russia for their interference in the 2016 US Presidential Elections. The head of the US Govt - President Donald Trump - believes there was no interference at all. He says he won that election, fair and square.

In the US House, Democratic Representative Adam Schiff - Ranking Member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence - believes there was indeed Russian interference in the 2016 US Presidential Elections. His counterpart, Republican Representative Devin Nunes - Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence believes it is nothing more than a political witch hunt i.e. basically they believe that Liberal Democrats cannot digest the fact that Donald Trump is President of the United States. Any Republican who is in favour of enforcing CAATSA, is just doing it to keep his political seat safe and also avoid the 24 hours, US news cycle, media.

In the article posted by Austin, Senator Bob Menendez is a Democrat and is a Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. His fellow Democratic Senators - Mark Warner and Sherrod Brown, both names also come up in the same article - serve as Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and Ranking Member of the Senate Banking Committee respectively. They are concerned that the Trump Administration will not enforce CAATSA. But why will the Trump Adminstration enforce it? Stringent enforcement by the Trump Administration would prove the point that the Russians did indeed interfere in the 2016 US Presidential Elections.

Now Representative Mac Thornberry and US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo - both Republicans - believe in providing waivers to countries like India who still rely on Russia for much of its military hardware. They realise India cannot be expected to turn off the Vodka tap - at an instant - and open the tap for Jack Daniels whiskey. It does not work that way. Tomorrow, are we to expect that we will *NOT* be able to lease another Akula Class submarine because of some asinine legislation called CAATSA? Will the Americans be open to giving us a 10 year lease of a Virgina Class - Block IV or V - boat instead? No way! They do not do that even for their beloved poodles ----> UK, Australia, Japan. Why would they do it for India? But India must forget the idea of operating another nuclear boat, because of CAATSA? :lol: :roll:

Donald Trump winning the US Presidential Elections is a tremendous gain for India. If Hillary Clinton had won, she would be more than happy to enforce CAATSA. The fact that Russia interfered in the 2016 US Presidential Elections is proven beyond a shred of doubt. But with Donald Trump as US President, it makes enforcing CAATSA dicey. If Hillary Clinton had won, all the *OLD* players would be back - Madeline Albright, Strobe Talbott, Robin Raphel, etc. And if they did not come, folks who worked under them and are influenced by them, would have been advising Hillary Clinton about India. For folks who remember Pokharan '98, these names are VERY, VERY, VERY familiar.

But regardless of which US political party had won, sanctioning India is not as easy to do as it was in 1998. It is now very much a symbiotic relationship. India needs to modernize her military and the Americans (and others) are more than willing to provide - within reason - what India needs, as long as India pays for it. The US military industrial complex is making huge sums of money from the Indian Govt. Sanctioning India will turn off the money tap and that is an absolute no-no. As Ron Paul, former US Representative from Texas and father to Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky, once remarked, "Democrats are Big Government and Republicans are Big Business, but at the end of the day....they both sleep in the same bed." And that bed is made out of dollar bills or George Washingtons :)

Who wants to take on the task of telling the CEOs of Boeing (P-8, C-17, CH-47, AH-64), Lockheed Martin (C-130, MH-60R), Honeywell (Jaguar re-engine) and other American defense contractors that the money flow from India has to be stopped because CAATSA has to be enforced on India? Twenty years have passed since Pokharan '98 and imposing sanctions on India, comes with serious financial implications for American defence contractors. I say dig in deeper. Buy more P-8Is, get that one white-tail C-17, get the CH-47 and AH-64, continue deliveries of the C-130 + order more and sign the contract for the MH-60R naval helicopter.

But when it comes to fighter aircraft, it is a different story. We cannot and must not have the tip of India's spear (or Trident or Trimurti or whatever you want to call it) hostage to the whims & fancies of US foreign policy. As Exercise Gagan Shakti so clearly illustrated - effective airpower is the decisive factor in a future conflict. You control the skies, you will prevail. Our fighter aircraft must be ready to see first, strike first and kill first. Exercise Gagan Shakti proved that ---> Against Pakistan, we will overwhelm them and against China, we will give them a moment of pause before they think of firing the first shot. That capability to strike, must *NEVER* be in the hands of a foreign power. India cannot afford to have 110 fighters (latest MRCA acquistion number) to be controlled by the United States or any other country. That is a large chunk of our airpower that must not be in someone else's hands.

Call me superstitious, but I whole heartedly believe that someone, somewhere is watching out for India. If you are religious, you may believe it is the Almighty. If you are an atheist, you may think that someone is playing a chanakya game in India's favour. Regardless, I am glad CAATSA came out now and not after we "possibly" bought the F-16 from Lockheed Martin or the F-18 from Boeing. At point, we would have our balls in a vice and they will turn the lever on that vice HARD. *NEVER* to American fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force. And I for one, wanted the F-35 to win. I am glad Ramana-ji called it a Fancy Cornish Hen. Because that is what it will truly become in the IAF.

Get 44 more Rafales, continue with Tejas production and invest money & human resources *WISELY* into the Kaveri program. Self Reliance is the ultimate goal. Shano Varuna Baby!

Philip
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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Philip » 07 Jun 2018 03:02

Nicely put but moolah for Raffys...? Alternative affordable non-US western options pursued as a first choice along with a "full-court-press" for the LCA. Extra Ru aircraft of types of those in service an easy solution too.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Rakesh » 07 Jun 2018 03:15

Philip: I am all in favour of taking up HAL's offer for the 40 additional Su-30MKIs. But for the *UMPTEENTH* time, a follow on batch of Rafales will not be close to the cost of the first batch. I have broken down the numbers for you - in previous posts - as well. After investing $2 billion - from the original Rafale deal - in ground support infrastructure to support two squadrons *EACH* at Ambala and Hasimara, to not order additional Rafales will truly be tragic.

If the above happens, by 2025, the IAF will look like this...

4 Rafale Squadrons (72 - 80 aircraft)
3 Mirage 2000I Squadrons (45 aircraft)
3 MiG-29UPG Squadrons (54 aircraft)
17 Su-30MKI Squadrons (312 aircraft)
2 Tejas Mk1 Squadrons (40 aircraft)
4 Tejas Mk1A Squadrons (83 aircraft)
4 Jaguar Darin III Squadrons (80 aircraft)

The above comes to 37 squadrons, five squadrons short of the magic number of 42. Compared to today, the MiG-21s and MiG-27s will have all been retired. And while the squadron numbers will have increased (from the 30+ that it is now), the fire power capability will have increased even more. There is no need for another fighter type to join the IAF. Will never come on time and never address the squadron shortage. I personally think they need to order at least another three Tejas Mk1A squadrons, which will bring it up to 40 squadrons. Then Mk2 is coming (201 planned) and will start replacing the MiG-29UPG, Mirage 2000I and Jaguar Darin IIIs in the 2030s.

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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby RoyG » 07 Jun 2018 03:59

Philip wrote:Nicely put but moolah for Raffys...? Alternative affordable non-US western options pursued as a first choice along with a "full-court-press" for the LCA. Extra Ru aircraft of types of those in service an easy solution too.


No need to hyperventilate. USA wont sanction India in any significant way. Follow on order for Rafale makes sense considering the price drop and established infra. We've had a much better experience with the French overall and we should welcome the diversification out of Russian military basket.

Philip
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Re: CAATSA .. An Oxymoron ?

Postby Philip » 07 Jun 2018 05:57

I have no problem with more Rafales if they are priced competitively.The RNs JSF F-35Bs, the most expensive variant, of which they're getting around 48+, cost just $0.5B more than our measly 36 Rafales! That too a 5th- Gen fighter including infrastructure and weaponry costs, the "full Monty".That's 50% more JSFs for almost the same price.

So until one sees the actual price of our Rafale deal tranche 1, of which the GOI has refused to share details, the jury is out on the cost of tranche 2.Let's see what the CAG has to say , it's report will be out shortly where we would get a proper picture of the contours of the deal.


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