Intelligence & National Security Discussion - July 2018

[drnayar]

on a side note., kudos RAW !! .. the agency deserves more credit staying in the shadows .. and getting its work done !!

[uddu]

A case need to be presented in the court urging Government to allow Hindus to carry weapons just like Sikh Community is allowed to carry weapons following the threat of Genocide call against Hindus. Because the call is from political parties and members of government that hold power, it becomes extremely dangerous for Hindus to survive in such situation and that also since the Honorable supreme court has not taken actions or condemned such calls for Genocide. This will be rejected by the courts. But an attempt need to be made to present the fact that when threatened, Hindus will protect themselves with weapons. Getting armed is not only the right of Hindus but also religious duty. Hindu deities are armed. Also Government should encourage Hindus to carry weapons like Sikh community is allowed to carry weapons.

[Aditya_V]

A terrorist Involved in the Pathankot has been killed, but intresting fact we all know 3 Terrorists were released in 1999 for 200 passengers in IC 814 Hijacking, how come no one knew 24 of the Most wanted terrorists were given to Pakistan as a "Goodwill" Gesture?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... s?from=mdr

[sum]

Amazing that this is the first time am hearing of this 24 scum being released as a 'CBM'!?

[drnayar]

A terrorist Involved in the Pathankot has been killed, but intresting fact we all know 3 Terrorists were released in 1999 for 200 passengers in IC 814 Hijacking, how come no one knew 24 of the Most wanted terrorists were given to Pakistan as a "Goodwill" Gesture?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... s?from=mdr

Latif and 24 other terrorists were released by India in 2010 by the UPA govt

[JTull]

A terrorist Involved in the Pathankot has been killed, but intresting fact we all know 3 Terrorists were released in 1999 for 200 passengers in IC 814 Hijacking, how come no one knew 24 of the Most wanted terrorists were given to Pakistan as a "Goodwill" Gesture?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... s?from=mdr

Latif and 24 other terrorists were released by India in 2010 by the UPA govt

Probably as part of fake Hindu terror conspiracy planned in conjunction with the enemy. But surprised at it being so soon after 26/11

[NRao]

[drnayar]

Thank you @NRao .. that video needs to be circulated widely.. one of the reasons why western countries shun chinese 5G and India both western and Chinese 5G tech

[Rakesh]

Defence ministry asks officials to strictly follow secrecy protocol
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 380832.cms
12 Oct 2023

[Rakesh]

President terminates services of Army Major over breach of national security protocol
https://theprint.in/defence/president-t ... l/1825940/
31 Oct 2023

https://x.com/VivekSi85847001/status/17 ... 88520?s=20 ---> President Murmu terminates Service of an Indian Army Major posted with Strategic Forces Command unit for having crucial data in his mobile & leaking it to a Pakistani agent in a WhatsApp Group named as "Patiala Peg". The SFC manages India's Nuclear Weapons. The Major under investigation since 2022 was found of keeping an secret documents in his electronic device which was against Army Rules. He was also in touch of a Pakistani Agent in a WhatsApp Group in which a Army Lieutenant Colonel, Brigadier and other top officers were part of this group. The other four members of this group were suspended back in 2022 at that time. The Major was posted with a SFC unit in North India at that time.

[sum]

Long but good read with lots of nuggets:
rabinder-singh-spy-scandal-exposed-raws-ugly-sides-but-india-hasnt-learnt-from-its-mistakes

There were several, less-spectacular cases of possible compromise, though never conclusively established. Shamsher Singh Maharajkumar, an ex-IPS officer posted in Islamabad, Bangkok, and Canada, let R&AW know he intended to stay on in Canada with his son at the end of his service. Sikander Lal Malik, secretary to R&AW founder RN Kao, chose to stay on in the US at the end of his service in circumstances that remain unclear. MS Sehgal, secretary to former R&AW chief Girish Saxena, remained in London.

Ashok Sathe, once in-charge of the R&AW station in Khurramshahr in Iran is said to be living in California, while NY Bhaskar and BR Bacchar both secured residency in the US. Major RS Soni moved to Canada without notifying R&AW.

Even though many lessons have been learned within the R&AW since the Rabinder Singh case, the Nijjar case has underlined that severe vulnerabilities remain. For one, the growing use of offensive surveillance tools like Pegasus and Predator—used to gather intelligence against domestic dissidents, foreign diplomats, and terrorists alike—allows Western intelligence services to detect weaknesses in India’s cyber networks and monitor its traffic.

A growing culture of offensive operations of the kind Khufiya celebrates, moreover, hasn’t always been matched by operational competence. The botched attempt to kidnap fugitive businessman Mehul Choksi from Antigua led to revelations that Indian nationals were involved in the operation. Police investigations in Antigua are also reported to have identified one conspirator as Gurdip Bath, a St. Kitts diplomat with close links to India’s political establishment.

[NRao]

1 hr 38 minutes long

Think Tanks Funding Row, George Soros ‘LINK’, Left vs Right Wing Politics With Shaurya Doval

In the latest ANI Podcast with Smita Prakash, Shaurya Doval shares insights into how think tanks operate in India and where they receive funding. He discusses the multiplicity of views among think tanks in India. He also sheds light on how the battles of narratives between the left and right wings have evolved in India.

He also addresses the widespread nepotism debate in the BJP and emphasizes the need for nationalism in a nation’s development. He also underscores the Hindutva influence in Uttarakhand state politics.

[sum]

Lots of activity happening behind the curtains.
U.S. charges Indian national in alleged assassination plot of Sikh separatist in NYC

The Justice Department announced charges Wednesday against an Indian national for allegedly taking part in a murder-for-hire scheme on U.S. soil orchestrated by an Indian government employee. The alleged plan was to assassinate an American citizen who is a leader in the Sikh separatist movement.

The indictment, unsealed in federal court in Manhattan, says the plot was foiled by U.S. law enforcement. But the allegations come just months after Canada accused Indian government agents of murdering a Sikh community leader in British Columbia, raising fresh questions about India's actions abroad and potentially complicating Washington's relationship with New Delhi.

Court papers do not identify the intended victim, but Gurpatwant Singh Pannum, the general counsel for Sikhs for Justice, said in a statement on X that he was the target.

The man charged with plotting to kill him is 52-year-old Nikhil Gupta, an Indian national and resident who court papers say was previously involved in international narcotics and weapons trafficking. He faces one count of murder for hire, and one count of murder-for-hire conspiracy.

American officials say Gupta was arrested in June in the Czech Republic at the U.S.'s request. Gupta is still in the Czech Republic pending his extradition.

Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said the Biden administration has "engaged in direct conversations with the Indian government at the highest levels to express our concern."

[sum]

Lots of details here
Seems a DEA mole blew the op as per the article:
US charges Indian national Nikhil Gupta with plot to kill

[rkhanna]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 71012.html


"
At least one person directly involved in the alleged attempted assassination is no longer working for India’s main spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing, the officials said, asking not to be identified because the details of the investigation haven’t been made public.

The individual is still employed by the government and India hasn’t started any criminal action against him, the people said.

New Delhi has informed US authorities about the findings from the government-appointed panel set up to probe the allegations, the people said. The US is demanding a criminal prosecution of the individuals involved, a request reiterated by Donald Lu, assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, during his visit to India in January, the people said.
"

[hgupta]

Donald Lu needs to be told to eff off. US has not done anything about the Khalistani terrorists making death threats against Indian citizens. GoI will do nothing of the sort. And besides this report is based on Bloomberg report without any independent verification.

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/Puran1W/status/1770468383043235990?s=20 ---> Ex-CIA on India.

https://x.com/thehawkeyex/status/177069 ... 77080?s=20 ---> "Right now India is doing everything right. US press talks negative about India that they aren't reliable, they don't back us. Its not true. India is backing India, which is how exactly a country is supposed to operate."

~Andrew Bustamante, ex-CIA on India's foreign policy.

https://x.com/VivekSi85847001/status/17 ... 08534?s=20 ---> Ex-CIA Operator on India & its Foreign Policy:

* Praise for RAW & IB
* India Relation with other Powers
* India Getting Benefit of vs
* Economy, Growth Rate
* Strong Superpower in Coming Years

[sanjaykumar]

One hopes India will be conscientious super power.

By definition one that helps. I would like India to help replicate its model of democracy and economic management, its emphasis on education and rights in Africa.

Nepal and Sri Lanka need to benefit from Indian growth.

Pakistan is a hopeless case, the two are different quom thus Pakistan has nothing to learn from India. It will remain a subpower in contradistinction to superpower.

In short, it is quite possible that India will reach that goal. The media and politicians in India as well as abroad are sensationally disapproving. The question of North/South had me look up Modi’s reception in Kasarogod. Unbelievable, the adulation and genuine affection for a politician from the North.

[hgupta]

One hopes India will be conscientious super power.

By definition one that helps. I would like India to help replicate its model of democracy and economic management, its emphasis on education and rights in Africa.

Nepal and Sri Lanka need to benefit from Indian growth.

Pakistan is a hopeless case, the two are different quom thus Pakistan has nothing to learn from India. It will remain a subpower in contradistinction to superpower.

In short, it is quite possible that India will reach that goal. The media and politicians in India as well as abroad are sensationally disapproving. The question of North/South had me look up Modi’s reception in Kasarogod. Unbelievable, the adulation and genuine affection for a politician from the North.

No. India should do nothing of the sort. Only sponsor educational trips if they want to and show them how things work in India. Otherwise they can figure things out themselves. Let them make mistakes and learn. That’s the only way they can grow up. India can provide basic building blocks but that’s it. Nothing more. Otherwise it becomes colonialist and imperialist in nature.

[sanjaykumar]

I cannot see India becoming colonialist or even paternalistic.

I think the the Christian and Islamic invasion have adequately inoculated India against the concepts. Their religion is also quite laissez-faire. That is a huge civilising and moderating force. And no the outcaste system is truly going to be dead once economic impowermwnt confers the dignity of being Indian on all.

[VinodTK]

India Must Have 6 Months Of Munitions Reserve: Dr Amit Gupta

Dr Amit Gupta wears many hats. Currently a Senior Adviser to the Forum of Federations, Ottawa, he has served as senior faculty and Visiting Fellow at top-notch institutions like the USAF Air War College Alabama and Sandia National Labs, to name just a few, and his areas of expertise and interest span global security, conflicts, popular culture, politics and sports.

In New Delhi to deliver talks at think tanks like the Center for Land Warfare Studies and the Observer Research Foundation, he took time out to talk to StratNews Global on the lessons for India from the conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, and why New Delhi needs to be careful while choosing partners for its Atmanirbhar projects.

Noting that modern wars are incredibly expensive and long-drawn, he recommends a stockpile of at least six months worth of strategic munitions.

[srai]

^^^
The stocks must last long enough until replenishment production delivers. The lead time is a good 12-to-36 months.

Indian military has a tendency to order in small batches intermittently. Too often, assembly lines are left idle for long periods of time. For example, Arjun MBT line left idle for 12 years!!!

[chetak]

^^^
The stocks must last long enough until replenishment production delivers. The lead time is a good 12-to-36 months.

Indian military has a tendency to order in small batches intermittently. Too often, assembly lines are left idle for long periods of time. For example, Arjun MBT line left idle for 12 years!!!

just saying onlee, but do we really need some kanedian to advise the Indian forces, and that too on ammo stocking levels ......

his is an academic discourse, and when the fertilizer hits the rotating parts fixed on the ceiling, he will be languidly nursing a daiquiri, ensconced safely in some far off continent, in a safe geography, and he most certainly does not have any skin in the game ........

During the 1965 India-Pakistan war, when the UNSC was pressing for a ceasefire, Lal Bahadur Shastri asked Army Chief Gen. J N Chaudhuri if India could press home its advantage if he delayed accepting the ceasefire. Chaudhari told the PM that the ammo...stocks were too low to sustain conflict, which forced Shastri’s hand. It was a miscalculation. It was later ascertained that India had fired only 14% of its ammo stocks while the Pakistani Army had used up close to 80% of its ammo.

https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/cr ... 11371.html


such an amateur mistake made then should have resulted in an almost instantaneous STSJ, given the consequences of such a blunder on the NATSEC narrative going forward and India's geopolitical opportunity costs of a decisive victory over the pakis at that time in our history

The service chiefs have no excuse because the buck literally stops with them

But, there have been enough lessons learned over the years and institutionalized processes are in place.

people came to help us in 1971 and also in kargil.

We are still on very friendly terms with those very people

India has internalized the lessons from the ukr russki war and drawn India specific conclusions (every army would have done so by now). Scenarios would have been gamed using local templates and threat perceptions, modified continuously as the war meanders along

India would be very foolish not to do this on her own, and relevant or not, kanedian views would have been considered with due weightage

kanedians can rest easy, and spend their time nursing their mentally ill PM back to health

[srai]

^^^
When the war breaks out, that will reveal the true state of any military. Majority of the time posturing strength is enough to deter. Decades of cronyism leaders fool themselves of their own invincibilities.

[VinodTK]

X - Posting

From: ThePrint

Successful Agni-5 test just one step. India needs to prepare an airborne command post

India’s recent successful test of MIRVs, Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicles, delivered by the AGNI-5 missiles marks the success of its efforts to counter the Ballistic Missile Defense Systems of potential adversaries, China and Pakistan. The implications of MIRVs being included in the existing nuclear arsenal were covered earlier in ThePrint. This article attempts to utilise the limelight of the MIRV success, to highlight a critical issue that requires to be addressed post-haste. It relates to the survivability of India’s Nuclear Command and Control System.

The apex body of the NCCS is the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA). The NCA consists of the prime minister and ministers of defence, home, external affairs and finance. The composition is the same as the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) and the National Security Council (NSC).

According to a Press Information Bureau press note from 4 January 2003, the NCA comprised a Political Council, chaired by the prime minister, and an Executive Council, chaired by the national security advisor. Only the PC can authorise the use of nuclear weapons. The EC provides inputs for decision-making and executes the directives given to it by the PC. No official indication has been given of the composition of the EC. It can be expected to have at least the chief of defence staff, chiefs of the armed forces, the commander-in-chief of the Strategic Forces Command and Heads of Departments of Defence, Atomic Energy and DRDO.

Alternative chain of command

The 2003 press note also said that the CCS had reviewed and approved the arrangements for an alternative chain of command for retaliatory nuclear strikes under all eventualities. Understandably, beyond the fact that arrangements exist, nothing is public about the composition of them. One chain for sure would be headed by the prime minister and the head of the other could vary depending on the political party in power.

An alternative chain of command arises from accepting a critical vulnerability that needs to be addressed by nuclear strategy. The vulnerability pertains to two interconnected issues. Both arise from doctrinal prescriptions. One is about the fact that only the PC headed by the PM can authorise the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the PC can be a key target for the adversary and if neutralised successfully in the initial stages of a nuclear war, it could paralyse India’s ability to retaliate. This vulnerability is further exacerbated because India is a No First Use nuclear power. Nuclear strategy has to cater to the ability to absorb a nuclear strike and then retaliate.

But creating an alternative chain of command does not solve the problem. Their protection during periods of heightened nuclear alerts and war is also an imperative need. Protection could be provided by moving the alternative PC to secret shelters underground, underwater or in the air. These facilities would also have to be equipped with communication facilities to exercise command and control and have logistic facilities to support their stay.

For good reason, the arrangements that exist to protect the PCs are not publicly known, except in some studies and journalistic reporting. It would be reasonable to assume that underground facilities located in different parts of the country are the main protection arrangements. It is unlikely that there are any protected facilities created underwater. Importantly, there are no indications that an airborne command post has been sanctioned and created. While efforts could be underway to create airborne command posts, it should be done on priority.

Airborne command is better

Two specially modified Boeing-777 aircraft for use by VVIPs have been available from 2020 onwards. They can counter some types of missile threats and are equipped with Large Aircraft Infrared Countermeasures (LAIRCM) and Self-Protection Suites (SPS). This acquisition cannot be considered the equivalent of a command post during war, where the requirements are much more demanding and include advanced communication systems, command and control facilities that are linked to leaders on the ground and integrated with the broader communication of the military. The airborne command post should also be hardened against Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) and has to be available 24/7, at extremely short notice.

The case for an airborne command post is strong. First, with the sharpening of satellite-based geospatial monitoring technologies, it is difficult to conceal the existence of underground facilities. Moreover, once located, communications could be jammed. Second, the airborne command post could potentially provide a greater degree of survivability to the PC as it is not fixed in terms of location, has an extensive air space to operate from, and facilitates room for deception through decoys and other measures. However, unlike an underground facility, its endurance is limited to its fuel-carrying capacity. This is mostly offset by the advantages gained in terms of protection. Preferably, one command chain could operate from an underground facility and the other could be airborne.

Survivability of the nuclear command authority is paramount and the airborne command post provides additional redundancy which strengthens survivability and deterrence. Moreover, as India modernises and upgrades its nuclear retaliation capabilities through MIRVs and other land and sea-based delivery platforms, it should be accompanied by complementary efforts to strengthen the survivability of the critical command and control elements. Without it, the executive end of the arsenal will keep waiting for orders that may never reach them.