Progress discussion on Vision 2020

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Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 13 Aug 2018 10:16

Dr Kalam had the foresight to champion Vision 2020 for India to become a developed country.
Its now August 2018 and we should examine where we are on this roadmap.

Here is the link to TIFAC 2020 reports:

https://tifac.org.in/index.php/reports- ... 20-reports

And already Vision 2035 is being created.

https://tifac.org.in/index.php/activiti ... ision-2035

If we scroll down the V2020 roadmaps in various areas are described,

I would like members to take out one area and get familiar so we can track the progress.

For starters here is 2016-17 annual report. 100 pages fair warning.

https://tifac.org.in/images/tifac_image ... 016-17.pdf

very current newsletter that talks of their plans to meet the new challenges

https://tifac.org.in//images/pdf/newsle ... ary'18.pdf

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 13 Aug 2018 21:20

We had 92 views but not one post here.
Guess all talk and no action.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2018 21:42

Wow! TIFAC is quite a find. They seem to have a fairly strong team of scientists. This is the organization that predicted that by 2020 India could become a "developed nation" as AK put it? I have the book, but did not realize until recently that it was a bureaucracy-think-tank report that was behind it. Awesome. Was AK part of this organization?

Present directions seem a bit, well... "Jettson's" type with gleaming "vertical Farming" skyscrapers with haraam gori wimmens going in and out showing their ankles and forearms. :eek: One good pic of Dilli pollution with a scary graph.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2018 21:47

Also, slick site but any way of getting these reports w/o paying $$M?

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 13 Aug 2018 22:37

AK became attached to TIFAC much later. TIFAC is 30 years old.

TIFAC is on Twitter.
And seems to be the forecasting group for the GOI.
Inputs to Niti Ayog.
So would be a key player in any progress towards Vision 2020 discussion.

I have to pull out my Kalam book but wish
TIFAC had a dashboard type web page to show were India is wrt Vision 2020 in the six focus areas.

I would suggest for our purposes to read the available PDFs .
The reports are useful if you plan to invest in that area.
Not germane to our purposes.


The Dilli pollution graph puts paid to the SC crusade to ban Diwali!
But SC is not data driven but perception driven.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Aug 2018 00:55

I see the present reports as being generated by young desis sitting in dilli and surfin' the 'Net and downloading stuff from quasi science-fiction reports. VEry glitzy PR type web pages and slick report covers and graphics, probably very good statistical data processing too.

Someone told me about one of the Big Mgmt/Finance Consulting Groups:

I don't know about thinking, but they make PPT presentations that none of us can touch, and that's what impresses the Baboon/Mantris


Organic solar cells from EU, Vertical Farming (a good concept, but not with the mega$$ glass towers shown), hydrogen buses from Iceland (again good, but in what context?)

Very little Indian context and grounding visible there. Back in 1989 this may have been a good strategy as in dragging the nation forward into worldwide tech, but even there, I think much of the revolution came not from the forecasted directions but from other occurrences that are more complex to explain. (The IT outsourcing tsunami for instance, where the "Y2K" panic opened the gates). Also from the nuke advances, and from generally opening the manufacturing sector and liberalizing the freedom to generate and keep individual wealth, and from the spectacular rise in urban real estate prices driven by black money and speculation along with the overcrowding caused by village deterioration and farmer suicides.

Phoren exchange came first from NRI remittances then the huge wave of IT, then from manufacturing and the trickle of medical tourism is becoming a good-sized flow. Plus Indian MNC investment abroad.

(hope this brings out the Econ Mob with the pitchforks..) :mrgreen:

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 14 Aug 2018 21:07


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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Aug 2018 06:46

Vision 2020: as of 2000.

This one does not seem to have anywhere near the inspiration level of Kalam's book. Rather insipid.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Aug 2018 06:53

Last edited by Rahul M on 15 Aug 2018 13:03, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: link corrected

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby Rahul M » 15 Aug 2018 13:02

thanks, from the 3rd one.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Aug 2018 18:22

This thread (Thanks ramana!) has me wondering. What WOULD be a good repeat of the Kalam book if done todin? Here is a small list from me for India 2030: This is based on the ancient Malloostani dream
1. All city buses converted to natural gas hybrid (gas-electric) or hydrogen-fuel-cell or all-electric. Slash both air and noise pollution and eliminate dependence on fuel imports.
2. 80% of cars and trucks converted to either gas-hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell or all-electric.
2. 90% of natural gas needs met from purified biogas (which is like 94% methane if you remove the CO2 and sulphur compounds).
3. Mandatory biomethanation of urban poo-alayas both in homes and public places. Eliminate dependence on both sewer/centralized processing and septic tanks, both of which are disasters when it rains heavily like in Chennai/Mumbai/Malloostan in recent years.
4. No plastic garbage.
5. Telecommuting for 95% of urban workers.
6. Rural population becomes 90% of total, vs. 70% today, because of REVERSE migration from urban areas. Urban population slashed by 50%, density slashed by 70%.
7. Road-building to survive monsoons and winters, with average speeds of 50kmph maintained nationwide. Beyond-city speed limits raised to 130kmph and safe to do that.
8. AI/sensor-based traffic law enforcement nationwide.
9. AI-based telemedicine to provide top-class medical care to everyone everywhere, fast and inexpensively.
10. UAV-based border enforcement with Bredators to vaporize vijiting Pakis instantly and automatically on the Yellow Sea.
11. Himalayan, Andamans and Lakshadweep Infrastructure to bring **ALL** of India upto world-class infrastructure standards.
12. PV-biogas-Intensified Solar electric power rises to 50% of power portfolio, 90% of rural power, while nuclear/hydroelectric/wind grid runs urban areas. Coal and oil-fired power plants phased out totally by 2035.
13. Vertical farming increases yield/acre by factor of 10? 100? in many areas.
14. Farm-to-table delivery systems minimize food wastage.
15. Rural distributed manufacturing using 3D printing (and ideas derived from there), hi-tech micro manufacturing, IoT-based distributed control, Blockchain (please replace it with something sensible) type distributed financial transactions and contracts.
16. Total e-governance and distributed telecommuting to slash need for Govt Buildings by 90%. No queing to pay bills etc.
17. Reduce paper-based form filling by 97%. Reduce form-filling, period, by 90%.
18. National Water Grid connects rivers; reduce incidence of "flooding" and annual flood damage by 90%. Minimize dependence on monsoons for agriculture productivity.
19. Rainwater harvesting and storage using distributed borewells and aquifers to eliminate summer water shortage.
20. Per capita energy usage in rural areas to increase by factor of 100 over present level, using all-renewables (yes, 100!)
21. AI-assisted legal system slashes delays in dispute resolution from X-year average today, to 30 days (there has to be SOME delay to deter frivolous disputes).
22. Strict zoning laws roll back the clutter of Indian towns, and provide better town planning.
23. Urban land values to plunge by average of 87 percent relative to today.
24. Tax base includes 99.999 percent of citjens above legal age, and every single piece of land and other accountable/tangible property. Tax collection reaches 99.9999 percent of what should be rightfully collected. Average tax rates slashed by 50% compared to today.
25. Bharata Natyam made compulsory part of education (just checking to see if ppl are awake..)

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Aug 2018 18:27

Notice that I do not mention "ejjikashun". I think reform of Education is highly overdue, but it should come by reforms OUTSIDE education. Like deterrent punishment of anyone demanding/accepting "capitation fees" for admission or jobs. Proper tax accounting of wealth of baboon etc. Deterrent enforcement against anyone who tries to pressure teachers into non-merit decisions. Elimination of non-merit considerations in admissions, grading standards, graduation standards. Societal expectation that schools and universities will uphold the best ethical and commonsense standards. Deterrent punishment in cases of real discrimination, harassment - and false accusations. Do these, and there is no reason why the education system won't do what it is supposed to do: seek out excellence, provide thoughtful support for those who really need support (sometimes the best "support" is a figurative kick in the musharraf). Seek out the best curricula because of competition, not mandate by political committees.

Eliminate wooden desks so that the DYFI netas cannot come to exams and ceremonially drive a knife into the wooden desk in front of them before proceeding to take out the cheat sheets. Also, provide air-conditioning in exam halls to keep out the commercial enterprises.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 15 Aug 2018 23:51

I would make #25 appreciation as #1 as it reinforces culture and the Idea of Bharat.
Also would like you to put a two line description of those 25 initiatives to help the discussion.
BTW TIFAC* has a blue sky vision of 2035 which I linked above.
We need a practical one along with stretch goals.

I know this thread is being watched quite far and wide. Lets be effective in our discussion.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 16 Aug 2018 01:01



So from this link I noted the chapters:

4. Food, Agriculture and Processing 61
5. Materials and the Future 83
6. Chemicals Industries and Our Biological Wealth 110
7. Manufacturing for the future 129
8. Services As People’s Wealth 143
9. Strategic Industries 170
10. Health Care for All 196
11. The Enabling Infrastructure 217



Eight focus areas. So please folks read one chapter and summarize the goals and where we are wrt to the vision.

Eventually I want a dashboard like a fuel gauge showing 1-100% for that area.
And color coded. Red is below 30%, Yellow is below 60% and green above 90%.

I also would like a comments section to describe where the shortfall is Example Is it. Schedule or Technical or Costs.
And could be over come by events. Eg. now cell phones in India dominant land lines so maybe the telephone goal is OBE.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2018 01:21

I cited the Malloostani dream because that vision of a well-ruled Ideal State is **NOT** based on unlimited wealth accumulation (although Mahabali was supposed to have quite a lot in the national treasury). Thus "Human Development Index" was de-linked from per capita income, and Net Worth was delinked from dollars. The metrics were mostly about ensuring a just and caring society: trust, reliability (swift and certain justice). Satyam Eva Jayate. Eradication of epidemics, avoidance of infant/child mortality, Equality Before the Law (and of Opportunity). Accurate measures (no shortchanging) - these are items that avert disputes.

In other words, by intelligent planning and understanding both the problems and the solutions that are Out There, a Vision of an Ideal Society can be developed, that is neither the Communist/Socialist paradise, nor Medieaval Talibanic nor sheer dog-eat-dog capitalism. I have not see this expanded anywhere. People just shrug at the old song as legend, and muddle on.

In my opinion, this need not incur a high cost in ecological terms, and can be achieved with technology that is at least on the horizon today.

So let's start (again, avoid getting mired in Education: as I said, that WILL see revolutionary advance once other things fall into place).

1. "Respect For Culture". Bharat Natyam is a metaphor for good cultural foundation. No need to expand on that here. One route here is the California Textbooks dictum per the US Constitution: "Every child must be given the resource to feel proud of his/her own culture and heritage". That trumps (or should trump) all petty prejudices and teaches respectful but not genuflecting behavior. Deeper learning of history can come elsewhere.

The rest I will try to group.

2. Transportation: All urban public transport converted to natural gas hybrid (gas-electric) or hydrogen-fuel-cell or all-electric. 80% of cars/ SUVs/ private vehicles also converted to either gas-hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell or all-electric.
Imagine cities with hardly any traffic noise except the swish of tyres (and the quieter high-frequency whine of electric motors which is objectionable, I don't know how to fix that). No smoke or diesel fumes from vehicles (outdoor open burning must be banned and the ban enforced).
Road-building to survive monsoons and winters, with average speeds of 50kmph maintained nationwide. None of this "fix potholes every week and drive on goat-tracks for 6 months a year because it keeps road-fixers employed and contractors rich"). Smooth roads will eliminate 90% of back problems that Indians experience. Beyond-city speed limits raised to 130kmph and safe to do that. Keep goats and cattle out, separate high-speed traffic and other lanes (autorickshaws/bicycles). AI/sensor-based traffic law enforcement nationwide.

Farm-to-table delivery systems minimize food wastage: UAVs and other innovations to implement this, along with direct trade transactions. Customers want to buy cabbage? Communicate directly with farmer, get exact number of cabbages picked and brought to market.

Air travel will be revolutionized with numerous new small airports, and new classes of vehicles with low disc loading, but that can be discussed elsewhere. Too easy to get sidetracked into the glitzy tech, as has happened to TIFAC.

3. Energy.

ENERGY is India's #1 need and deficiency. If you have energy, you can get water, you can get clean air, good roads, manufacturing, health etc etc.

90% of natural gas needs for transportation and cooking, and some for power generation, must and can be met from purified biogas (which is like 94% methane if you remove the CO2 and sulphur compounds). This stuff can be generated and collected in rural areas as well as urban areas, minimizing footprint of fuel delivery and cutting almost all of fuel imports. Today 80% of Indian fuel needs are imported, which drains away money and puts the economy at the mercy of events outside India.

Per capita energy usage in rural areas to increase by factor of 100 over present level, using all-renewables. This can be done through the following.
PV-biogas-Intensified Solar electric power rises to 50% of power portfolio, 90% of rural power, while nuclear/hydroelectric/wind grid runs urban areas. Coal and oil-fired power plants phased out totally by 2035.

Again, the glitz-tech here is thorium nuclear and nuclear waste-nuclear which promise to make India the Energy Capital etc. Can be discussed elsewhere.

Rest later: gotta run to the Yak-Feeding and Desert Grass Admiration Mela in suburban Ulan Bator.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 16 Aug 2018 09:10, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby A_Gupta » 16 Aug 2018 02:18

The Malloostani dream, with English subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XsmZvalkUY

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 16 Aug 2018 02:31

Arun was hoping you will show up here!

Here is tweet giving NaMo govt 2014 goals and what was achieved:

https://twitter.com/KiranKS/status/1029 ... 08960?s=19

We can map them to Vision 2020 and use as dashboard inputs.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2018 16:19

Urban Renewal

Rural population becomes 90% of total, vs. 70% today, because of REVERSE migration from urban areas. Urban population slashed by 50%, density slashed by 70%.

Telecommuting for 95% of urban workers and maybe staggered work hours for others, slashes both traffic congestion and peaks of electricity/water/sewer demand.

Total e-governance and distributed telecommuting to slash need for Govt Buildings by 90%. No queueing to pay bills etc.
Strict zoning laws roll back the clutter of Indian towns, and provide better town planning.

Urban land values to plunge by average of 70 percent relative to today as Black Money becomes unviable and ill-gotten property has to be disposed at fire-sale values. Schemes to buy urban real property on speculation basis, collapse as down payments and loans come under real-time scrutiny with AI comparing them to salary and other legitimate income sources and net worth projections.

Speculators move to the suburbs and rural population focal points, where real estate values do go up as energy and infrastructure advance along with compounded wealth generation.

Attraction of high-rise high-density living diminishes. With distributed govt. offices, there is no particular attraction for corporate buildings to be in congested downtowns. Mass transportation is still viable but no need for passengers to be crammed in and hanging out of trains. (sorry, putting comfortable deck accommodation on top of trains is not going to work because of electric contraptions.)

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2018 16:29

Governance

Total e-governance and distributed telecommuting to slash need for Govt Buildings by 90%. No queueing to pay bills etc.

Reduce paper-based form filling by 97%. Reduce form-filling, period, by 90%.

AI plus Aadhar make it irrelevant and illegal to demand same information from taxpayers in multiple forms. {US Doctors' Offices still request same info 27 times to bloat paper processing costs}

Strict zoning laws roll back the clutter of Indian towns, and provide better town planning. Encroaching constructions etc removed after due notice but no further recourse: any "stays" requested from judicial system get processed same day, 99.99% rejected out of hand unless there is Ophishial stupidity or attempted malfeasance/ high-handedness (also stupidity because Maveli's Long Arm Of The Law smashes down unerringly).

Tax base includes 99.999 percent of citjzens above legal age, and every single piece of land and other accountable/tangible property. Tax collection reaches 99.9999 percent of what should be rightfully collected. Average tax rates slashed by 50% compared to today.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2018 16:40

Sewage and Waste Processing

Mandatory biomethanation of urban poo-alayas both in homes and public places. Eliminate dependence on both sewer/centralized processing and septic tanks, both of which are disasters when it rains heavily like in Chennai/Mumbai/Malloostan in recent years.
No plastic garbage.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2018 16:49

Water

National Water Grid connects rivers; reduce incidence of "flooding" and annual flood damage by 90%: Minimize dependence on monsoons for agriculture productivity. Slash uncertainty in crop yields, reduce interest rates for farm loans.

Rainwater harvesting and storage using distributed borewells and aquifers to eliminate summer water shortage.

Increased energy and infrastructure capabilities enable significant raising of coastal areas to stave off erosion and sea flooding. (see elsewhere for measures to reduce GW, but those will not become effective before 2030).

Stringent measures on biomethanation and garbage disposal cause drastic improvement in ground water quality, so that it becomes safe again to drink tap water. Market for bottled water crashes.

Better weather prediction and better leadership of water management authorities eliminates practice of idiots opening dams at the peak of floods (Chennai 2015, Malloostan today) after sitting on their thumbs through weeks of heavy rain forecasts with reservoirs already full.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2018 16:57

Legal System (Rahul Mehta's classic NBPJ theory)

AI-assisted legal system slashes delays in dispute resolution from X-year average today, to 30 days (there has to be SOME delay to deter frivolous disputes). Present backlog that dwarfs US Immigration constipation, reduced inside 5 years down to "current" open status.

Prompt enforcement.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2018 17:01

Rural Renewal
1. Total energy self-sufficiency in rural areas (easily achievable given will, through PV+Intensified Solar + solar thermal fuel generation + biogas).
2. Grid connection present, mainly to balance out loads and sell excess power from rural areas into grid. Beamed power replaces hard-wired grid to leapfrog access to remote/difficult areas.
3. Vertical farming increases yield/acre by factor of 10? 100? in many areas for vegetables. (Grain not viable/practical now to grow in vertical farming)
Since grain consumption will decrease with shift in dietary preferences to vegetables (better protein content), demand for grain and food oil will decrease.
4. Protein-eating yindoos will become as muscular as TFTA pakis.
5. Farm-to-table delivery systems minimize food wastage.
6. Rural distributed manufacturing using 3D printing
(and ideas derived from there), hi-tech micro manufacturing, IoT-based distributed control.
7. Blockchain (please replace it with something sensible) type distributed financial transactions and contracts.

8. Medical care in rural areas as good as the best in urban areas, with AI-based telemedicine, good roads and first-responder/ambulance services including air ambulance.
9. Telecom infrastructure (Internet speeds) as good as urban.
10. Education availability as good as urban (many good residential universities will anyway be in rural settings).

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2018 17:12

Defence

Drastic shift in defence priorities from huge Standing Army / Shaktiman Trucks / tanks, to agile UAV swarms, space and aerial recon/ fast intervention.

UAV-based border enforcement with Bredators to vaporize vijiting Pakis instantly and automatically on the Yellow Sea.

Individual soldier's autonomy level, authority to get swift force projection, and survivability all boosted by large factors. No need to put individual soldier in line of fire at Yellow Sea.

Incidence of violence against border village residents dropped by 99%, if necessary by extending border to Sindhu River and RYK.

Himalayan, Andamans and Lakshadweep Infrastructure to bring **ALL** of India upto world-class infrastructure standards.

Navy boosted to allow fast and effective access to all of Indian Ocean all the way to Antarctica.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2018 23:10

This is why they need ultra-fast AI in the judicial system. If a cow has to poo in India, that needs the Supreme Court!!!!!! to Weigh In and Pass a *****.

Taking note of the gravity of the situation, the Supreme Court ordered the disaster management panel [i] of the Mullaperiyar Dam to urgently decide on lowering the water level by three feet to 139 feet.
The directive came after Vijayan wrote to his Tamil Nadu counterpart K Palaniswami seeking release of water from the over 122-year-old dam to ensure its safety. The dam in Kerala's Idukki district is owned and maintained by Tamil Nadu.


Is his messed-up or what? The bloody dam is about to break and kill 100,000 people, and Ophishials have to Pray To The Supreme Court to tell Other Ophishials to move their musharrafs and do what is needed.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 17 Aug 2018 18:37

The Kerala Floods situation, following the North India drought and the Mumbai Floods etc etc, is an unfortunate but fortuitously timely reminder of the need for thoughtful and active reform in India, in river-linking, water management, flood management, rainwater harvesting, replenishing aquifers, intelligent building codes and enforcing them, corruption in the above, and the dismally poor Situational Awareness and Management processes in India. And the opportunities to make HUGE improvements.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 18 Aug 2018 03:09

UB when you can take a look at the TIFAC 2016-2017 Annual Report:

https://tifac.org.in/images/tifac_image ... 016-17.pdf

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 18 Aug 2018 07:47

I looked at it, thanks. They Mention 12 Roadmap areas: Materials, Manufacturing, Information & Communication Technology, Medical Science & Healthcare, Transportation Technology, "Technology roadmaps on Education, Energy, Infrastructure and Habitat are in advanced stage of completion."
Does that add up to 12 I wonder.
Then they mention Automotive Technologies. Then "Securing Individuals, Society and Infrastructure" (anti-terrorism?). Then Bioprocess and Bioproducts.
I am a bit confused about the organization of the report.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Aug 2018 01:57

Awed by the level of chalta hai here about this.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 05 Sep 2018 03:31


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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby UlanBatori » 30 Sep 2018 02:01

Beloveds:

Anyone have a free link to Abdul Kalam's India 2030? There is such a thing.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 03 Oct 2018 01:20

UB, I looked but found no such document in the open but some speeches:

We have to transform India in Five Areas: A.P. Kalam

Integrated Action for a Developed India

In order to realize this distinctive profile, we have to transform India in five areas where India has core competence:

1. Agriculture and food processing

2. Education and healthcare

3. Information and communication technology

4. Infrastructure development, which includes reliable and quality electric power, surface transport and infrastructure for all parts of the country including rural and urban areas under PURA

5. Self-reliance in critical technologies.


Same time this is
Excerpted with permission from A Manifesto for Change, APJ Abdul Kalam and V Ponraj, HarperCollins India.

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Re: Progress discussion on Vision 2020

Postby ramana » 03 Oct 2018 01:21

Let me ask Dr. Prabhat Ranjan on Twitter.


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