2019 General Elections News and Discussion

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 18 Apr 2019 03:55

Manu wrote:This Astrologer is based in Bay Area. Usually Spot on. The only questionable part of the analysis is Modi's exact time/D.O.B.
https://www.ktastro.com/article/?id=23

Sorry, if this is off topic...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRfnhi3D4Xk

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 18 Apr 2019 04:09

I keep staring at the graphs of vote-share vis-a-vis seats won and trying to gain insights (there is obviously no universal relationship because of post-poll alliances, first-past-the-post system, overall turnout per constituency, etc.)

The data are from different sources. Vote share data for UPA, NDA, and cumulative Others are from 5forty3. Seat count data are from Wikipedia as 5forty3 does not offer alliance-wise seat breakdowns. Curiously the "vote share" data in Wikipedia are different for nearly all elections than what 5forty3 has... I wonder if it is some completely different method for calculating vote share. I believe 5forty3 uses % of all votes cast (not sure about Wikipedia, so I ignored their figures for vote share).

Few things that stand out:

1) 2014 was the first time that NDA actually got a higher vote share than both UPA and Others. NDA has been getting consistently more vote share than Others since 1998, except for a slight shortfall in 2009-- yet it has always had less vote share than UPA until 2014.

2) However, the vote shares seem to translate very differently into seat counts for NDA and UPA. This could be because UPA (INC) always had more cash to turn out more absolute numbers of voters in elections prior to 2014, but not necessarily to do so in more constituencies. On the other hand NDA has in general been able to translate vote share into seats more efficiently (better ground game?)

3) Of concern. Look at the 1998-99 and 1999-2004 deltas. In 98-99, UPA actually INCREASED its vote share but faced a modest decline of 9 seats (144-135). NDA meanwhile DECLINED in vote share (34.7-31.9%) but gained 16 seats, possibly due to alliance factors.

BUT then look at the 1999-2004 deltas. NDA actually declined LESS in vote share during 99-04, compared to 98-99! Yet this decline of 1.1% cost NDA 89 seats. Even more surprising, UPA actually lost (not gained) vote share from 99-04 (a delta of -1.3%) but ended up with 83 more seats. In terms of vote share the only gainer in 99-04 was the Others: they gained 2.4% vote share, though only 6 additional seats.

This tells a very different story than 1989-91 (National Front/Others govt kicked out)... where they lost 6.5% vote share and 82 seats, or the INC/UPA defeats in either 1996 (-4.5% delta vote share, -144 seats) or in 2014 (-12.4% vote share, -204 seats).

To sum up, the rejection of NDA1 by the electorate in 1996 did not look anything at all like the rejection of JD-National Front in 1989, INC in 1996, or UPA in 2014. In all those other cases, there was a considerable decline in both vote share and seats for the rejected incumbent. Compared to this there was little or no anti-incumbency in overall vote-share for the Vajpayee govt in 2004; but the loss of seats for the NDA was catastrophic.

The UPA will definitely try to repeat that this time around. The vote share for Modi is unlikely to change much in 2019 over 2014 (just as it did not change much for Vajpayee between 1999 and 2004). UPA's own vote share will not increase much from 2014 (Pappu has been singularly uninspiring). The UPA's desperate hope is that somehow, even a minor shift of votes to the Others in key constituencies could create room for UPA to helm a khichdi coalition keeping Modi out.

The GOOD news: Modi was able to pull off his 2014 victory with lower vote share than ANY UPA govt in the past... indicating that NDA is simply much more efficient at translating votes into seat count. I simply cannot believe that only 35-40% of voters want Modi back this time around, after all that he has done to win the favour of the masses over the past five years. I anticipate NDA's vote share this time will look much more like the range of UPA's vote shares between 1989 and 2009 (median ~44.1%) if not even higher. Coupled with the NDA's ability to more efficiently translate votes into seat count, this could very well lead to an even bigger victory for NDA in 2019 than 2014.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 18 Apr 2019 04:45

Rudradev, very interesting insights. I've been looking at this voteshare data too, having posted about it earlier in this thread a few days ago.

There have been only two elections where INC/UPA was not the highest voteshare recipient, regardless of who won the election - 1977 and 2014. Every other election, including NDA1 and various short term goverments, INC was by a long distance the largest voteshare gainer. This is a reflection of the fact that INC was the default 'national party vote'.

BJP on the other hand always had far higher voteshare to seatshare conversion - a blessing and a curse, because its voteshare is concentrated in areas where it wins most of its seats . However, if it loses out in FPTP margin in its stronghold regions to opposition alliances, It demonstrates dramatic drops in seatshare even with rather minimal loss in voteshare. This is the entire premise of mahathugbandhan.

The INC has generally managed to keep up voteshare while steadily eroding seatshare to alliance partners, except for 2009. It wasn't until 2014 that it saw catastrophic voteshare losses. During its previous nadir in 1999 for example 114 seats was accompanied by 28.3% voteshare ; BJP won 282 seats in 2014 on 31.4% voteshare!

BJP, until it has the national party default vote nationwide, has to always attempt to focus on the FPTP position in its stronghold regions, since it's vulnerable to vote transfer by opportunistic alliances. It therefore needs to appeal to a broadbased audience that gives it enough of a consolidated vote to be the first past the post.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Apr 2019 05:11

You'd think with all the good that has been done by the present GOI and the utter 404-ness of the INC, the voteshare would swing? I mean, long ago it was ChachaNehru, anointed successor of MKGji, and then it was the Maha Devata IGji. These were indeed towering national figures. RaGa Sr retained SOME of the aura as "Mr.Clean" (pre-Bofors) but that eroded. SoGa retained the sympathy factor, amplified by the Devata-Successor halo. But WHAT does RaGa jr bring this time around? So I would HOPE that there is room for a massive vote-swing among previous India-One-Nation voters (much broader than RamRajya devotees). This is the essential difference between the BJP Hearland vote concentrations and the mass appeal voteshare, isn't it? I cannot imagine what more a PM could have done in 5 years than NaMO has done, to gain the National vote. I thought UP might be a brilliant vindication of that, but recent Rajasthan and MP events are depressing. How a state whose rice and wheat produced an MS Dhoni, can vote for a RaGa is simply beyond me.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Apr 2019 05:15

OT here I know, but I am trying to imagine what a force an INC can be if it lived up to its name. This may be the future if the NDA wins this time: sort of British/ American division, two parties with not much to choose from, so they alternate 5-year terms, but with continuity of essential policies. End of my posts on that line.

Outta here.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 18 Apr 2019 05:22

UlanBatori wrote: I thought UP might be a brilliant vindication of that, but recent Rajasthan and MP events are depressing. How a state whose rice and wheat produced an MS Dhoni, can vote for a RaGa is simply beyond me.

The INC 'national party voteshare' in GEs has held strong for far far longer than their ability to command state level election wins as they once used to. While the rot at the state level began way back in Kamaraj's time in the 1960s, until 2014, they've consistently polled over a quarter of the voteshare every general election.

Code: Select all

Election INC_voteshare
1951 44.9%
1957 47.8%
1962 44.7%
1967 40.7%
1971 43.7%
1977 40.9%
1980 42.7%
1984 48.1%
1989 39.5%
1991 35.6%
1996 28.8%
1998 26.1%
1999 28.3%
2004 26.7%
2009 28.5%
2014 19.5%

INC won 41% voteshare in 1977 after Emergency while being kicked out - close to 10 percentage points more than BJP did while sweeping 2014. They also won almost 40% while being kicked out in 1989 post Bofors. It was not until 2014, with RaGa-2 in charge that they fell dramatically from the 26-29% they consistently polled since the 1990s, to under 20%. Still a formidable number, even if 19% voteshare gave them 44 seats onlee, and BJPs 31.5% gave them 282.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Apr 2019 05:29

Raga is like a bad but cash rich startup that gets to pivot and relaunch with a new idea every year.
he reinvents his message as he goes along.

but he is relatively very young and will bide his time.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Apr 2019 07:03

Lost in all this din is Mukesh Ambani seeking KSA investment in his refinery business. $15B for 25% stake.
He wants $20B.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 18 Apr 2019 07:07

1. Voting behavior is sticky, as in once you vote for the same party two times, you are likely to be a life long voter. This explains why congress continues to vote significant percentages.. Its the post independence generation, and the generation scarred by the Janata party experiment.

2. In general, people do not like to 'waste' their votes. You get their vote only if you are a serious contender. There is a large part of India where the BJP was not a serious contender, but is now the main opposition party. These states are WB (39 seats), Orissa (19 seats). In the last elections, they only registered their presence. In this election, they have taken over the space of the main opposition and will improve their vote percentage tremendously. There are many more states where the BJP still has to expand - Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Seemandhra, Telangana come to mind immediately. I expect this to happen in the next election cycle. Kerala particularly.. is ripe.

3. Congress is likely to continue polling 10-15-20% votes from all over India, but there will be a dramatic fall and the destruction of the party if they do not get good leadership and a serious shot at forming the government. People will stop 'wasting' their votes if they dont see Congress as a serious contender.

4. This voter behavior also explains the dramatic collapse of the Congress in UP, Bihar, West bengal (160 seats). So much so that they dont have an alliance partner willing to partner with them! They arent serious contenders anymore and no one will vote for them, even though there may be a 10% 'latent' vote for them there. These voters will either not get out of homes on voting day or vote tactically for caste and other relationships.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 18 Apr 2019 07:22

Read somewhere that voter turnout is directly corelated to anti incumbency... At least in India and the US. What kind of figures do we have so far?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 18 Apr 2019 07:41

Cain Marko wrote:Read somewhere that voter turnout is directly corelated to anti incumbency... At least in India and the US. What kind of figures do we have so far?

I think Suraj made a post earlier in the thread with data that kinda disproves that in the Indian context. The correlation simply wasn't there.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 18 Apr 2019 07:42

Well, high turnout is better for BJP. So that generalization is not necessarily true. Saw Sachin Reddy's tweet that congi supporters are demotivated and not turn up, so we may see a dip in polling percentages, he also said same applies to BJP supporters, but more so for congis.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 18 Apr 2019 07:44

election campaigns and govt.s can promote brand in the broader subcontinent not just in India. obviously Raga/Maya/Mamata do no such thing. The onus falls on the BJP. There seem to be a slowly growing group not only in af but even pak who will loop up to India to fill big shoes.

https://www.news18.com/news/india/the-s ... 04833.html

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 18 Apr 2019 08:03

nachiket wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Read somewhere that voter turnout is directly corelated to anti incumbency... At least in India and the US. What kind of figures do we have so far?
I think Suraj made a post earlier in the thread with data that kinda disproves that in the Indian context. The correlation simply wasn't there.

Here is that post. There are a few more in that context in that thread and the next one.

Generally speaking, turnout isn't a correlating factor. However, there's a connection between substantial upward change in turnout, and anti-incumbency. It's rather hard to visualize turnout increasing in this GE, considering that my data shows that last GE was already the highest turnout ever seen in a GE, by some distance. Phase 1 of this GE has kept up with that turnout. Let's see how Phase 2 does today.

prasannasimha · Post by **prasannasimha** » 18 Apr 2019 08:37

Bsngalore booth management by BJP is bad. Not a single person came to give voter dlups or canvas. Traditionally Bangalore has a low turn out. They need to galvanize people to vote

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 18 Apr 2019 08:41

Saw in twitter, BJP has the best arrangement in bang ?

chandrasekaran · Post by **chandrasekaran** » 18 Apr 2019 08:44

Yes I agree. Was quite disappointed. Zero canvassing in my area - especially at the ground level workers whereas lots of work done by Congi's. If my area voted for NaMo like me, it's purely because of wanting to see NaMo back as PM. In 2014 it was the exact opposite scene. Lots and lots of ground workers mobilizing public...

I only hope that the other constituencies are better managed. Otherwise it's not a good sign

chandrasekaran · Post by **chandrasekaran** » 18 Apr 2019 08:47

Karthik S wrote:Saw in twitter, BJP has the best arrangement in bang ?

I guess it's at South Bangalore. Not sure about North Bangalore, but in my area which belongs to Central Bangalore zero campaigns, no door to door visits or any efforts to reach out to people. Whereas Congi's are hyper active. As I was returning from casting my vote, saw congi people bringinging in old people holding their hand, instructing them to vote for Congress and leading them to the booth. Even at the booth, their stall has lots of young people actively helping public with the voter slips.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 18 Apr 2019 08:55

Reporting brisk polling from south BLR. But no party types seen near my booth. Just as well, I guess. Hopefully yesterday's rains will ensure a pleasant day and turnout will end up higher than the usually abysmal 40%.

Canvassing-wise, BJP people had come to my apt twice, and were generally doing door-to-door till last week. I heard that even the far flung IT areas (ORR is not exactly the locus of south BLR) saw some level of door-to-door campaigning by the BJP candidate. Saw a Congress pamphlet outside my door one day, but don't know if someone simply dropped it off or not. That apart, no word from the Congress candidate here.

In any case, please do your bit, people. If you have, Jai Hind.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 18 Apr 2019 09:08

Did my part. I know S BLR BJP candidate is doing lot of campaigning but it is possible that BJP has got a little complacent considering that at least S BLR traditionally votes for them. INC have opened an office (perhaps S BLR one?) near my place and I can hear their autos plying around with blaring popular Kannada movie songs with lyrics substituted for INC message (the audio quality is so bad with loud volume, it is difficult to make out the sounds except for the general tones).

Yesterdin, at work, I was trying to convince few people to go out & vote (especially youngsters). As the conversation ensued, found that most of them have bought the Rafale scam narrative. Tried my best to inform them of the false narrative but few of them said, either they will vote NOTA or for INC.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 18 Apr 2019 09:23

How many people will vote another party just because their own party didn't have booths on election day?

disha · Post by **disha** » 18 Apr 2019 09:28

Zynda wrote: Yesterdin, at work, I was trying to convince few people to go out & vote (especially youngsters). As the conversation ensued, found that most of them have bought the Rafale scam narrative. Tried my best to inform them of the false narrative but few of them said, either they will vote NOTA or for INC.

A little late maybe, just point out that Rahul's dad Rajiv was involved in Bofors and CONgoons always do a defense scam and they want to tie the same narrative to Modi.

Scam is that by delaying this kind of purchases, CONgoons want to create an "import only" industry with a significant cut to them. And kill the local industry including LCA. And loss of LCA means loss of jobs for the local including the silly youngsters who will go and vote NOTA or INC. And of course let them know that inflation will eat into everything they work hard to earn.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 18 Apr 2019 09:43

Zynda wrote:Did my part. I know S BLR BJP candidate is doing lot of campaigning but it is possible that BJP has got a little complacent considering that at least S BLR traditionally votes for them. INC have opened an office (perhaps S BLR one?) near my place and I can hear their autos plying around with blaring popular Kannada movie songs with lyrics substituted for INC message (the audio quality is so bad with loud volume, it is difficult to make out the sounds except for the general tones).

Yesterdin, at work, I was trying to convince few people to go out & vote (especially youngsters). As the conversation ensued, found that most of them have bought the Rafale scam narrative. Tried my best to inform them of the false narrative but few of them said, either they will vote NOTA or for INC.

Did you tell them that their tax is going to increase if INC comes to power?

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 18 Apr 2019 09:47

Yes. But they had already drank the kool-aid enough. Generally avoid getting in to deep political discussions at work as it is usually discouraged. Company policies and all...

Krita · Post by **Krita** » 18 Apr 2019 09:53

Zynda wrote:Yes. But they had already drank the kool-aid enough. Generally avoid getting in to deep political discussions at work as it is usually discouraged. Company policies and all...

Problem in Bangalore is that voter registration is very low. Some housing societies in Banshankari, JP nagar and Gubalala has taken the initiative to get the residents (mostly non kannadigas) registered. It all depends on middle class turnout. Middle class is with BJP but they always have the worst turnout.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 18 Apr 2019 09:54

ramana wrote:Lost in all this din is Mukesh Ambani seeking KSA investment in his refinery business. $15B for 25% stake.
He wants $20B.

Looks like a good move. That business is headed to 0 given the transition to clean energy.

Krita · Post by **Krita** » 18 Apr 2019 10:00

vera_k wrote:
ramana wrote:Lost in all this din is Mukesh Ambani seeking KSA investment in his refinery business. $15B for 25% stake.
He wants $20B.
Looks like a good move. That business is headed to 0 given the transition to clean energy.

What will happen to Pakistan's mega oil discovery.

Mungerilal ke haseen sapne.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 18 Apr 2019 10:03

Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
4m4 minutes ago
More
Its still very early with under 5-10% turnouts in most areas, but INC-JDS seem to be doing pretty well for now. Guess, BJP's turnout operation is yet to take off for today?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 18 Apr 2019 10:14

prasannasimha wrote:Bsngalore booth management by BJP is bad. Not a single person came to give voter dlups or canvas. Traditionally Bangalore has a low turn out. They need to galvanize people to vote

depends on the area, I guess.

Where I vote, they delivered the voter slips directly to the residence two days in advance of the voting day.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 18 Apr 2019 10:21

Dr Praveen Patil
‏

@5Forty3
Following Following @5Forty3
More
Unfortunately, Tamil Nadu also may not be helping much of NDA's cause, the arithmetic is probably not working beyond Kongu land.

These are still early days and we will know much better by late afternoon.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 18 Apr 2019 10:24

Krita wrote:
vera_k wrote:
Looks like a good move. That business is headed to 0 given the transition to clean energy.

What will happen to Pakistan's mega oil discovery.
Mungerilal ke haseen sapne.

the way the pakis have been very consistently, aggressively and determinedly fighting and pushing for the "resolution" of sir creek, there is more to this murky oil business than what meets the eye.

We should be careful not to be fooled by the pakis and needlessly concede any more than what is strictly necessary per international law and existing conventions

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 18 Apr 2019 10:51

The deal is for both refineries and petchem, so it is not all about clean energy. Petchem gives you rubber, pvc, acrylic fibres, poly ethylene, cosmetics raw product etc. No way the trend for these is downwards.

Krita · Post by **Krita** » 18 Apr 2019 10:59

hanumadu wrote:
Dr Praveen Patil
‏

@5Forty3
Following Following @5Forty3
More
Unfortunately, Tamil Nadu also may not be helping much of NDA's cause, the arithmetic is probably not working beyond Kongu land.

These are still early days and we will know much better by late afternoon.

Very good initial turnout in Karnataka!

9 am figures:

B North 9%
B Central 7%
B South 10%(amazing)
B Rural 9%
Chikkaballapura 10%
Kolar 7%
Chamarajanagar 8%
Mandya 11%
Hassan 11%
Mysore 11%
Udupi 9%
S Canara 10%
Chitradurga 9%
Tumkur 10%

Source : Dr Sachin Reddy (Twitter)

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 18 Apr 2019 11:19

Dr Praveen Patil
‏

@5Forty3
Following Following @5Forty3
More
Watch out for Yadavs today, wherever they are present in Brajbhoomi, they are refusing to blindly vote for Maya's candidates... MGB could be in trouble in Uttar Pradesh!

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 18 Apr 2019 11:23

hanumadu wrote:
Dr Praveen Patil
‏

@5Forty3
Following Following @5Forty3
More
Watch out for Yadavs today, wherever they are present in Brajbhoomi, they are refusing to blindly vote for Maya's candidates... MGB could be in trouble in Uttar Pradesh!

this guy will, as usual, come back in a little while, with a lot of caveats and plenty of ifs and buts.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 18 Apr 2019 11:48

It's still early in the day to talk about voter turnouts.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 18 Apr 2019 11:57

chetak wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
this guy will, as usual, come back in a little while, with a lot of caveats and plenty of ifs and buts.

LOL! Yeah PP tries to maintain plausible deniability.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 18 Apr 2019 12:45

How many voters are actually swayed by electioneering and make up their mind after listening to local candidate etc. ?

Another thing I realized is that Peacefool voters are willing to suffer a life of misery and penury but still vote for C-system than to vote for NM and get a better future and I always thought that self-preservation is the most basic instinct of human kind.

Krita · Post by **Krita** » 18 Apr 2019 13:01

Vikas wrote:How many voters are actually swayed by electioneering and make up their mind after listening to local candidate etc. ?

Another thing I realized is that Peacefool voters are willing to suffer a life of misery and penury but still vote for C-system than to vote for NM and get a better future and I always thought that self-preservation is the most basic instinct of human kind.

Peacefools in North Kerala beat up nurses and medical officers who visit their homes to get their children inoculated. Lovr for ummah trumps self preservation. They have a monoply on Darwin awards.

varshar · Post by **varshar** » 18 Apr 2019 13:19

Deleted. You realize you're trolling when you appeal to reason and then proceed to resort to namecalling to make your case ? "demagogue' ? "henchman" ? Move along now.