2019 General Elections News and Discussion

[Ardeshir]

^^ Umm.. who is Zero loss, saar?

<shiver>BJP will lose onlee </shiver>

Sapil Kibal

[putnanja]

^^ Umm.. who is Zero loss, saar?

<shiver>BJP will lose onlee </shiver>

Sibal - who argued that 2G scam was zero loss

[Vadivel]

I have a Q.

Is the exit polls after Phase 7 or till Phase 6, since phase 7 only ended yesterday, how is it possible to publish results so soon.

[vinod]

CPM is mighty pissed off in Kerala.

All those Sabarimala issue, they thought the minorities will vote for them, but exist polls suggest instead they voted en masse UDF. So, now we have Kodiyeri cribbing SDPI is a terrorist party. A ploy to either win back hindu votes or extort money from SDPI. Will wait and see...

[pankajs]

Exit poll? These days everyone has prediction model codes running on servers. You feed the data and your output is ready in minutes. You do some manual check and you are ready.

At least that is my impression after skimming through one blog post written by 543 guy.

[pankajs]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 430944.cms
Chit fund case: Supreme Court refuses urgent listing of Rajeev Kumar's plea for further protection from arrest

Arrest is almost certain now .... barring some breakthrough!

[Vadivel]

Exit poll? These days everyone has prediction model codes running on servers. You feed the data and your output is ready in minutes. You do some manual check and you are ready.

At least that is my impression after skimming through one blog post written by 543 guy.

That's hard to believe, how can you collate data from 59 constituencies even via real-time and come up with the figures (graphics etc) in 30 mins, the polls ended at 6, the exit polls came at 6:30, how is it possible?

[Karan M]

Sudhan,

Sibbal.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 967848.cms

[sudhan]

Sapil Kibal

Sibal - who argued that 2G scam was zero loss

Thanks, Gentle Rakshaks!

I should have remembered the buffoon's legendary argument..

Reg the Oppn's chest beating w.r.t EVM, the ECI should take them to court for baseless allegations..

Here is an excellent take down of these conspiracy theories..

IIT graduate and an IAS officer explains in detail why EVMs can’t be ‘hacked’ or ‘tampered’ with

[Ashokk]

NDA leaders meet over dinner at BJP HQ

EVM is good when Mamata Banerjee became West Bengal chief minister twice and Amarinder Singh became Punjab chief minister. If they win, EVM is good. But when there is an expectation that we will win because people of this country want Narendra Modi to be prime minister again, then EVM is unreliable. BJP condemn their (opposition) conduct and will tell humbly to accept their defeat with grace: Ravi Shankar Prasad

[pankajs]

Exit poll? These days everyone has prediction model codes running on servers. You feed the data and your output is ready in minutes. You do some manual check and you are ready.

At least that is my impression after skimming through one blog post written by 543 guy.

That's hard to believe, how can you collate data from 59 constituencies even via real-time and come up with the figures (graphics etc) in 30 mins, the polls ended at 6, the exit polls came at 6:30, how is it possible?

Read PP's blog ...

BTW, how do you define "real-time"? As far as I know "real-time" means the data keeps flowing through the day and the model keeps processing/updating. At any moment it will give you the projections for data up to a couple minutes back.

At a pre-determined cut off, say at 5:30 you take a snapshot of the model projection and do a manual cross-check for the next 30 minutes and you are ready by 6:00 pm. How's that?

So it might not factor in the "last" 30 mins of data but it doesn't matter in the overall scheme.

[UlanBatori]

Good to remember, again, the EXIT Polls are not the recognized election of India.
What exactly is an Exit Poll and how is it conducted? Does someone stand with a counter outside the booth and ask:

Hu did u vote 4 pls?

I would run if someone asked me that. Or respond "Yo Momma" if I dared. And THEN run.
Hence the question. Or do they have someone sit by the wayside and count:

There goes another BeeJayPee!

[pankajs]

BTW, how do you define "real-time"? As far as I know "real-time" means the data keeps flowing through the day and the model keeps processing/updating. At any moment it will give you the projections for data up to a couple minutes back.

BTW, we are in the cheap mobile data era. Data collection apps on Phones/Tablets are directly plugged into the servers over the mobile network. There is hardly any lag in the data collection function.

The data is on the server as soon as it is entered on the phone app either by the voter or the agent.

Again, only my impression of the scenario.

[KLNMurthy]

There is a marked attempt by opposition parties to de-legitimize the polls a.k.a Bush-Gore 2000 style.
This whole talk of EVM manipulation and pliant EC is all pointing in that direction. Next you will see them going up in chorus on 'how Modi stole the elections' else Congress was about to form govt with help from all the regional parties. This may get accentuated if Amethi is lost and if BJP makes big inroads in eastern coast states.

This still may not bring people on the street since most anyways got the govt they wanted, it creates ruckus and friction in the polity of the system with constant barbing and at each others throat. It forces people to be 'with-us' or 'against-us' whereas Indians generally are very accommodative and political ideology doesn't define them. The last time people were on the street protesting nationwide was during emergency and it was more against the high handedness of the govt than just emergency.

I believe some of the Cong luminaries have landed abroad to get directions on waging war via this slogan of delegitimate elections. The only problem with this plan is that while they are planning to spread Arab Spring, earth beneath congress feet is being reduced on daily basis along with NCP/TMC/JDS. With 10 state govts with opposition, This whole charade maybe hard to pull off but gives a chance to Anti-Indic forces to get a minor playing role.

** All this assumes that election results will be in line with Exit polls and BJP alone will be at about ~300 seats

In raising a hue and a cry about EVMS AND EC, the Ecosystem is priming the pump for carrying on the fight post-results. It is a scorched-earth approach as it is based on destroying the institutions of democratic elections.

They are also tipping their hand. Normally, in any kind of warfare, this would be a bad thing to do, as it gives the defenders a chance to prepare and execute a counter-strategy. In this case, Ecosystem doesn't need to worry about that, apparently, as there is no hint that BJP has any counter-strategy.

There is another aspect, related to A_Gupta's advice to be skeptical of all news media in general. As a matter of fact, in reading meta-articles by media figures about their integry, the basic value proposition of news reportage is, yes we have human biases, but our professionalism means that we are skeptical of self-serving narratives *on behalf of you, the reader*. Therefore(paraphrasing these meta-articles), your claims of bias in our reporting are without merit.

Well, a generic skeptical reporter of an elite powerful news outlet like NYT, should, (and would, under other circumstances) be skeptical of the self-serving claims of EVM manipulation and EC bias. But we know they won't be--headlines of "tainted election " are likely already in the works, to be used if Modi wins. More importantly, the purveyors of these conspiracy theories also know that there will be no skepticism and the CTs will be reported as fact, by innuendo at least.

This is the world we live in, what are we going to do about it, is the question.

[A_Gupta]

Withdraw suit means it can be reinstated any time. Loaded gun more effective than one that is fired. Basically free hand now.
Or maybe he knows that Prime Minister RaGa is coming soon.

https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/co ... 48228.html
Anil Ambani group firms' stocks rise after exit poll results, Reliance Power up 12%
The Reliance Group shares gained between 4-12 per cent in early deals, led by Reliance Power which rallied 11.72 per cent in intra-day trade on the BSE. While Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management share price surged 9.96 per cent to Rs 210, Reliance Capital jumped 9.26 per cent to Rs 125.60.

[Vadivel]

That's hard to believe, how can you collate data from 59 constituencies even via real-time and come up with the figures (graphics etc) in 30 mins, the polls ended at 6, the exit polls came at 6:30, how is it possible?

Read PP's blog ...

BTW, how do you define "real-time"? As far as I know "real-time" means the data keeps flowing through the day and the model keeps processing/updating. At any moment it will give you the projections for data up to a couple minutes back.

At a pre-determined cut off, say at 5:30 you take a snapshot of the model projection and do a manual cross-check for the next 30 minutes and you are ready by 6:00 pm. How's that?

So it might not factor in the "last" 30 mins of data but it doesn't matter in the overall scheme.

I think the exit poll is a hit job by the msm for trp. I am unable to find any data or methodology that they have used for exit poll.

for example take a look at this

"For example, we do not know whether the roughly 1,400 sample per constituency which India Today-Axis claims, has a balanced proportion of different social groups."

https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis ... CvOdP.html

I think its better to follow the pre-poll survey from lokniti which provides more detailed info on their survey.

https://www.lokniti.org/media/upload_fi ... ay%204.pdf

So lets not fall for it and take it with a bucket of salt.

[UlanBatori]

Election 2019: All 5 VVPATs Should Be Counted First, 22 Opposition Parties Tell Election Commission
Desperate effort to buy time: wonder what they think can happen given a few more days' suspense.

[nandakumar]

Elections are over. Zero loss would have informed him the repeated references to him by Clown Prince would stop as well.

Sure, but why pull out now? The clown prince had put him out to dry.. and to be frank the allegations were quite dramatic.. I would have kept on and watched the idiot squirm like a worm..

I remember the same Ambani meeting the queen mother and other CONcroaches after the 2004 BJP debacle.. grapevine at that time was that he was there to assure the UPA of his family's support.. Come NDA govt, gets kicked in the testimonials .. serves him right.. all the more reason to have persisted with the case IMHO

He was under pressure from BJP so that the focus is partially turned towards Rahul Gandhi during the campaign period . Now that the elections are over there is no need for the suit.

[chetak]

This counting VVPAT business. Let the EC be very sure on the process. They are basically counting chits of papers which can even fly away in the wind, or can be destroyed (making the tally go wrong). The "seculars" have got some conditions signed off by the EC on counting and tallying of VVPAT.

Being the cynic I am, I feel that sabotage of elections may come through VVPAT.

AFAIK, the VVPAT machine prints on thermal paper and the ink fades away in about six months or so.

so any verification has to be done within that time and simply cannot wait for long and prolonged court cases.

[pankajs]

Hu did u vote 4 pls?

IIRC, from some previous election cycles. ONE polling agencies was talking of having a touch enabled tablet based app for this kind of work. They would orient the screen away from themselves and towards the voter to assure them of total confidentiality of their choice.

[KLNMurthy]

^^ Umm.. who is Zero loss, saar?

<shiver>BJP will lose onlee </shiver>

Kapil Sibal

[UlanBatori]

Present SC-approved position is that VVIPs will be 5 machines in each constituencey vs. 1 before. Now Oppn wants all 5 counted and verified before rest of the count is announced. EC says no, we will announce first and then do the verification, but is considering. RaGa waiting for some apocalypse to strike during the delay? Is that why he is out of the country? Rest leaving during the delay? Someone should do an Exit Poll at the airport of who is Exiting.

[pankajs]

Read PP's blog ...

BTW, how do you define "real-time"? As far as I know "real-time" means the data keeps flowing through the day and the model keeps processing/updating. At any moment it will give you the projections for data up to a couple minutes back.

At a pre-determined cut off, say at 5:30 you take a snapshot of the model projection and do a manual cross-check for the next 30 minutes and you are ready by 6:00 pm. How's that?

So it might not factor in the "last" 30 mins of data but it doesn't matter in the overall scheme.

I think the exit poll is a hit job by the msm for trp. I am unable to find any data or methodology that they have used for exit poll.

for example take a look at this

"For example, we do not know whether the roughly 1,400 sample per constituency which India Today-Axis claims, has a balanced proportion of different social groups."

https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis ... CvOdP.html

I think its better to follow the pre-poll survey from lokniti which provides more detailed info on their survey.

https://www.lokniti.org/media/upload_fi ... ay%204.pdf

So lets not fall for it and take it with a bucket of salt

.

You are free to believe whatever you want .... BUT

The exit polls have a better track record than opinion polls. This is quoting rNDTV quoting Prannoy Roy from his latest book on Indian elections.

I have a bunch of exit polls video (rNDTV) that are in my bucket list to be watched AFTER the results precisely because of the uncertainty associated with such things.

[ShyamSP]

Good to remember, again, the EXIT Polls are not the recognized election of India.
What exactly is an Exit Poll and how is it conducted? Does someone stand with a counter outside the booth and ask:

Hu did u vote 4 pls?

I would run if someone asked me that. Or respond "Yo Momma" if I dared. And THEN run.
Hence the question. Or do they have someone sit by the wayside and count:

There goes another BeeJayPee!

Without broader details of methodology published openly, these exit polls are not reliable.

Apparently AP voters show middle finger, depending on the surveying person it is interpreted as 1st party or 3rd party. He then whatsapps the numbers in real time to mini "head quarter" he is hired by. Mini header quarter person depending on who gives money contract bumps their preference and sends the numbers to actual pollster company. Actual pollster company like Axis then sells to different media organizations that publish/display to people like India Today based on the media organizations' preference.

Meanwhile some lazy pollsters combine pre-poll "surverys" and "post" poll surverys as exit polls also. May be the bottom feeder might be feeding by reading news papers or watching news on TVs.

Overall Who knows how they are conducting.

Rahul will win only

[UlanBatori]

Ah! NOW I understand how the count shot up from 306 to 365. They read the Official UBCN Predictor of 360.
NDA will lose onlee!!

[chetak]

Election 2019: All 5 VVPATs Should Be Counted First, 22 Opposition Parties Tell Election Commission
Desperate effort to buy time: wonder what they think can happen given a few more days' suspense.

desperate to cloud the counting process and cast aspersions to derail the results.

they already have inside info of what to call out in the VVPAT printouts and are coordinating their efforts.

nothing better can be expected when naidu is desperate to save himself.

If Modi and/or jagan come to power, pending corruption cases will be processed post haste and the BJP will have naidu's head on a spike

jagan may survive a bit longer depending on his shastrang asana

[pankajs]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/ba ... 193659.ece
Karnataka Chief Minister Kumaraswamy cancels Delhi visit

[A_Gupta]

You always have to ask of any media source:
- who is pushing this information as factual?
- why are they pushing it? who benefits and who loses if this information is true? is there a conflict of interest?
- what is their track record?
- how many independent sources are reporting same/similar information?
- what information relevant to this situation have they omitted or failed to consider?
- are the sources of information named or anonymous? even if they are anonymous, is there sufficient information provided to identify their interests in providing this information?
- has the information been distorted because of a translation problem? (common in desi news).
- has the information been distorted via misleading sound-bite, misquote, etc.?

Obviously, you cannot do this kind of thing for every single news-item you encounter, there are not enough minutes in the day.
So, IMO, the more important or consequential the item is to you, the more you examine it. For less consequential items, you may add it to your "library of information" but you accept that there is a probability that the news-item is wrong.

You thus construct an "information universe" for yourself, at the core are things you are very confident are true; at the periphery are things that are possibly true, but you haven't examined them as much.

What is consequential to me may not be consequential to you and vice versa, and also we are exposed to different sources of information. So we do each live in our own information universes.

The great boon of a place like BRF is that the vetting of information is shared, and so we each live in a better information universe than if we were on our own.

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1130723027841241088

ANI Verified account @ANI ANI Retweeted ANI

Roshan Baig, Congress when asked if Siddaramaiah is responsible for the collapse of the govt: KC Venugopal is a buffoon. I feel sorry for my leader Rahul Gandhi ji. Buffoons like Venugopal, the arrogant attitude of Siddaramaiah & the flop show of Gundu Rao...The result is this.

Roshan Baig, Congress when asked if Congress should've thought before giving portfolios in state: Portfolios were sold. How can I blame Kumaraswamy for it? He wasn't allowed to function. From day 1 Siddaramaiah said 'I'm going to be CM'.You've gone to their doorstep to form govt!

[chetak]

and so it begins


Karnataka meltdown: Congress leader Roshan Baig trains guns at Siddaramaiah, calls KC Venugopal a buffoon

Karnataka meltdown: Congress leader Roshan Baig trains guns at Siddaramaiah, calls KC Venugopal a buffoon[/b

MAY 21, 2019

Senior Karnataka Congress leader Roshan Baig has triggered a new controversy after he hit out on the party in-charge KC Venugopal and called him a buffoon. Baig even levelled allegations that the portfolios in the Karnataka state assembly were ‘sold’. Training his guns on former Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, he said, “From day 1 Siddaramaiah said ‘I’m going to be CM’. You’ve gone to their doorstep to form govt!”

[b]Roshan Baig, Congress when asked if Siddaramaiah is responsible for the collapse of the govt: KC Venugopal is a buffoon. I feel sorry for my leader Rahul Gandhi ji. Buffoons like Venugopal, the arrogant attitude of Siddaramaiah & the flop show of Gundu Rao…The result is this. https://t.co/WOxFkk9enD

— ANI (@ANI) May 21, 2019

The Exit Polls on Sunday, that painted a grim picture for the fortunes of the coalition government of JDS and Congress in the state of Karnataka, has finally brought the simmering discontent within the Congress party out in the open.

Calling the in-charge of Congress Karnataka, KC Venugopal a buffoon, Baig asserted that the arrogance of Siddaramiah and the “flop show” of the party president Gundu Rao is why people have been disenchanted with the coalition government in the state. Baig made the remarks in the reference to the exit poll results that forecasted BJP sweep in the state.

Baig also alleged that the portfolios in the Karnataka coalition government were sold. He further added that Kumaraswamy cannot be held responsible for the failure of the coalition government because he was not allowed to function. According to Baig Siddaramiah asserted to be the CM of the state since day 1 of the formation of the government.

Roshan Baig, Congress leader: No seats were given to Christians and only one seat was given to Muslims in Karnataka, they were ignored. I’m upset with this, we have been used. pic.twitter.com/RvJnia3gdV

— ANI (@ANI) May 21, 2019

Baig has been relentless in attacking the Congress leadership in Karnataka. He also said that he has been unhappy with the party as no seats were given to the Christians and only 1 seat was given to Muslims. Baig alleged that the interests of the minorities, in contrast to the promises made, were ignored and they were used only to garner votes.

The rift between the Congress and the JDS was widening as both parties tried to outdo the other for the struggle to grab power in the coalition government. The coalition was formed against the wishes of the grass-roots cadres of both the parties who had fought bitterly during the state elections. Karnataka chief minister HD Kumaraswamy has expressed his laments many times over how he has been reduced to a clerk due to Congress interference in the governance.

Amidst the widening rift between the two parties, the forecast from the exit polls has delivered a body blow to the fate of the coalition government in the state. It is now widely speculated that if the exit polls turn out true, the coalition government in the state will collapse and many other disgruntled Congress leaders might come out to openly attack their state party leadership and switch over to the opposition.

[IndraD]

https://www.firstpost.com/politics/exit ... 72971.html
Exit polls: With negative campaign that played to Modi's strengths and over-reliance on Gandhi name, Rahul's strategy may have backfired

So in nutshell:
1. Congress could not capitalise on rural distress
2. Tried to attack Modi's image which appears to be intact and taller < enjoys trust
3. Relied on Gandhi surname (with million of new voters)
4. lulled into false sense of security with state poll win

[ramana]

the J-word brother.

its the big J in rahul mehtas NBJP pantheon.

Don't worry too much at pet strawmen.
As long as pigeon is there can coo.
Unless blatantly personal remarks are made.
However can guarantee if some one reports and makes a case out of spite at fellow members.

[Singha]

Arnab has declared total war on the oppn EVM whiners.
he was shouting that he demands allegience to the constitution of india, that silicon valley turds and SM non-entities running smear campaigns will be punished and that CIA will not choose the next govt and PM of india!

he has grown his hair longer and looks more impressive now. a bit more rhetorical flourishes and head tilts. a promising rajya sabha MP imo.

give the man a ticket.

[Singha]

in KA, mallikarjun kharge is running his own campaign to be CM ?

[Singha]

i have a feeling legal challenges in SC are going to be a damp squib.

tahrir square kamandus will be reduced to wearing black tshirts and hijabs with #notmyPM and venting on teetar soon.

[Theeran]

BTW, how do you define "real-time"? As far as I know "real-time" means the data keeps flowing through the day and the model keeps processing/updating. At any moment it will give you the projections for data up to a couple minutes back.

BTW, we are in the cheap mobile data era. Data collection apps on Phones/Tablets are directly plugged into the servers over the mobile network. There is hardly any lag in the data collection function.

The data is on the server as soon as it is entered on the phone app either by the voter or the agent.

Again, only my impression of the scenario.

Data will need to be cleaned and prepped before feeding into the model. Poll companies probably collected data after each phase. Phase 7 might be an approximation or less accurate.

[abhijitm]

Is there clear guidline from EC on what if a mismatch found between sample EVM and VVPAT? Many were asking a clear instruction during the election. Don't remember EC issued any. Did they? This drama could have been avoided otherwise.

[ramana]

The vvpat issue is troubling. The opposition seem to be marshaled by CBN to cast doubts on election process itself. This is a very dangerous precedent. The voting machines worked well when the opposition did well last year. What changed this time other than an unfavorable exit poll?

If the results favor NDA, brace yourself for a long and shady assault on India’s fairly decent election process itself. Mr Lavasa also is not helping this with his stance. The situation is ripe for a civil unrest fomented by external forces, for the incoming govt.

This questioning the electoral process seem similar to the script that is being used in Venezuela, to dislodge the current president

First of all CBN is hardly a leader after 11 April having lost his majority. He is walking on thin ice and pretending to marshal a coalition. Besides he talks of Democracy is in danger and does his utmost to cast doubt on Election process. Apparently he is threatening to run riot on 23 May. Most likely Jagan will be sworn in on same day so there is no law and order problem.

What changed is CBN and gang are losing. So now they are doubting the election process. Its heads they win tails BJP loses.

That Lavasa is neck deep in corruption with his wife's art works and multiple directorships in companies while he was Secy in Govt of India and could be even now.
And India is not Venezuela.
Dont be kuch bhi!
The EC has rejected the 100% VVPAT count. Its sad that a BRF member was part of CBN delegation to question EVM and he was thrown out for being a convicted person.
By promoting dhoti shiver wrt EVMS etc. we are promoting doubt in election process.
No different than the MTGB.

[ramana]

Is there clear guidline from EC on what if a mismatch found between sample EVN and VVPAT? Many were asking a clear instruction during the election. Don't remember EC issued any. Did they? This drama could have been avoided otherwise.

EC knows what it is doing. So let them make a ruling.

[KLNMurthy]

Arnab has declared total war on the oppn EVM whiners.
he was shouting that he demands allegience to the constitution of india, that silicon valley turds and SM non-entities running smear campaigns will be punished and that CIA will not choose the next govt and PM of india!

he has grown his hair longer and looks more impressive now. a bit more rhetorical flourishes and head tilts. a promising rajya sabha MP imo.

give the man a ticket.

Why? He can be of more service as a media voice, now that he owns his network free and clear.