2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 10 Nov 2019 23:56

KJo wrote:Former Chief Election Commissioner TN Seshan (called Alsation by many) passes away at his residence in Chennai.
He reformed elections in India and got parties to not dirty up cities with posters.
Hari Om.


yes indeed.

But also, ALL politicians crapped whenever they saw him.

They were scared schittless by his mere presence.

An appointment truly well done.

TN Seshan's good name will be remembered fondly by the citizenry in the annals of our electoral history and how he helped set up an unparalled world class system in a third world country.

Om Shanthi.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Nov 2019 00:02

10 Mosques in India that were built over Hindu Temples

Out of thousands of them, here is the list of 10 of such popular temples converted into a Mosque.

1. The Ram Janmabhoomi Temple Ayodhya – Babri Masjid
2. The Kashi Vishwanath – Gyanvapi Mosque
3. The Krishna Janmabhoomi Temple – Shahi Idgah Mosque
4. Rudra Mahalaya – Jami Masjid
5. Bhojshala – Kamal Maula Mosque
6. Adinath Temple – Adina Mosque
7. Bhadrakali Temple – Jama Masjid
8. Vijay Temple – Bijamandal Mosque
9. Somnath Temple – Temple Restored
10. Several Hindu & Jain Temples – Qawwat al-Islam Mosque

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudarshan » 11 Nov 2019 00:06

OK I thought RJB would be the first instance anywhere in the world of a non-A culture reclaiming a place of worship from an A one, but it seems that honor would go to Somnath.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Nov 2019 00:29

twitter



Only in an innately secular country like India would the 80% majority wait patiently for 70 years for a legal verdict to build or not build a temple sacred to it.
Western democracies that lecture India on religious tolerance should examine their own histories #AYODHYAVERDICT

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby astal » 11 Nov 2019 00:38

Regarding the situation in Maharashtra, here are my 2 cents.

BJP lost about 20 seats due to complacency of Hindu voters and BJP over confidence based on delivering development. Similar to what happened after the first full term of the Vajpayee BJP government in 2004. A slightly better turnout and Fadnavis would be able to continue his development agenda.

Maharashtra has historically been impacted by traitors and selfish louts. This time the Shiv Sena played the role with aplomb and cut off their own nose to spite their face.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Nov 2019 00:48

this is the game of the pawarful people.


twitter


I have a feeling that Maharashtra govt will now withdraw the state government consent for CBI probes.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 01:16

^^
If I am not mistake Pawar was called by ED. So while state government can withdraw consent for CBI probe it will not stop the ED.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 11 Nov 2019 01:21

more than hindu or muslim politics, it's raj dharma(loosely translates as how fair the king is to his subjects) which defines the raja. The unholy alliance they are trying to sample and use it to tame the hindu political awakening going to bomb in their faces. shiv sena was dead along with bala saheb. no one should lose any sleep over this new change. we are entering into new phase of indian history.

think of it as local satraps fighting for their turf. our great-n*-great grand pa chanakya must be smiling at our situation from the heavens now. everyone need to buckle up for the ride. nitish has at least another 5 years fight in him. momta, kcr, jagan(after eating up tdp) and now ncp can drag it to another 5 years.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Nov 2019 01:32

What is the BJP game in Maharashtra? Prez Rule? Mumbai UT? They seem be calling the bluff of the minions by refusing to form guvrmand. End game?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 01:38

BJP wants the SS and CON/NCP to shake hand publicly i.e. allow them to cross ideological boundaries/lakshman rekha, allow them to bicker about the spoils of power, allow the contradictions to surface, allow all of these to play out in the public for about 6 months and then pull the plug.

BJP has about 105 + 15 = 120. They are short of about 25. Once Sena/NCP/CON win the vote of confidence the government stays in power for the next 6 months by default. That will allow the BJP to make up the shortfall of 25 and get back in the saddle.
Last edited by pankajs on 11 Nov 2019 01:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 11 Nov 2019 01:40

Rsatchi wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/sena-needs-to-exit-bjp-led-nda-ncps-malik-on-support/articleshow/71995951.cms
Now so much for SS conditions to form government with BJP
They are getting their own back?? :D
So they have to now specify that they are not with NDA and withdraw their Minister from the cabinet to be able to form the government in MH
In future scenario how will this affect BJP in MH
NCP+Cong+SS+MNS will they be able to form a mahagatbhandan against BJP
I know they all have inherent fault lines and core voter
how will they react to this unholy alliance for sheer greed and hunger for power!!
And also the hindu votes from this alliance will they transfer to BJP given the RJB verdict?? 8)


The election result is what it is, and the Sh!t Sena was fully expected to be a parasite....but Amit and Farnavis are playing a very good post-election game. By declining to form goremint, BJP has given the dorks Udhhav and Aditya an ever-longer rope to hang themselves. I am just amazed at the low intelligence of Uddhav. Now he is in the predicament that he has been shouting "Sena CM at any cost" for weeks...and recently it has emerged that NCP condition is that he has to formally leave the NDA and cut all ties with BJP, plus the Congis claim they will never support. Relax and enjoy the show. My wager is on Prez rule with BJP getting full majority in the next election. As for the "suffering people of MH", you get what you vote for.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 01:44

pankajs wrote:^^
If I am not mistake Pawar was called by ED. So while state government can withdraw consent for CBI probe it will not stop the ED.

And then there is NIA. Remember Dawood while Pawarful also was a terrorist. So NIA can always be invoked if necessary.

ED & NIA don't need state government consent.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 01:59

Got this idea from SM

Kartarpur corridor is also demoralizing for Bakis and Kashmiri Islamist for the reason articulated by Maulana Diesel when he questioned the intentions of Dimran Niazi, who was talking war tak on Kashmir yet was collaborating with that Mudi on Kartarpur, basically hinting that Niazi was not sincere on Kashmir or had abandoned them.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 11 Nov 2019 02:23

pankajs wrote:
pankajs wrote:^^
If I am not mistake Pawar was called by ED. So while state government can withdraw consent for CBI probe it will not stop the ED.

And then there is NIA. Remember Dawood while Pawarful also was a terrorist. So NIA can always be invoked if necessary.

ED & NIA don't need state government consent.


To be sure, Pawar is also skilfully playing what cards he has....the real battle here is between the BJP and NCP veterans...Uddhav and Aditya are total idiots and greenhorns.

By insisting on NDA exit by SS as a condition to even consider NCP support, Pawar is exploring the possibility of an opening to join the NDA after the SS stupidly bumps itself out. The lessons learned by Nitishwa and Chandranna can't be lost on him, whereas I doubt the SS dorks get it.

On the NDA side, the complete dominance at the national stage is the overpowering card that makes all other players very weak. The importance of the huge LS 2019 mandate is starkly seen in the present scenario. My guess is that NDA will negotiate tough...i.e., no promises to call off the ED/NIA hounds, no personal benefit for Pawar, but a lease of life for his party in future years. The best deal that Pawar can cut is for him to retire and cooperate in all corruption probes, while the next generation of NCP wallahs allies with NDA.

As for Congis, Modi and Shah already have them in their jaws...they have very limited chance to come out of this with anything in hand.

As I said, let's watch the game!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 02:48

pankajs wrote:Got this idea from SM

Kartarpur corridor is also demoralizing for Bakis and Kashmiri Islamist for the reason articulated by Maulana Diesel when he questioned the intentions of Dimran Niazi, who was talking war tak on Kashmir yet was collaborating with that Mudi on Kartarpur, basically hinting that Niazi was not sincere on Kashmir or had abandoned them.

Seems this has its own hastag in bakistan #KartarpurIsKashmirSellOff

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby krishna_krishna » 11 Nov 2019 03:08

PM Niazi in candid disclosure that in inviting MMS, if GOI try to stop him to make him a hero :

https://twitter.com/ragarwal/status/1193385687086579712


"Something about small men in big offices" total dehati aurat, calls DR. MMS "Manmohan", I wonder now what seculars will have to say this. RAW has birds inside deepest circles (or leaked by porki deep state ) another coupe :rotfl:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby fanne » 11 Nov 2019 06:50

While there is need to be concerned about SS+NCP+COng+mns to come together against BJP, I would assume the situation could be more like UP than Bihar (where JDU and RJD have vote bank that will transfer, though not so much as in past). The SP voters will vote BJP where there is BSP candidate and BSP voters would vote BJP where there is SP candidate. I have hard time believing that SS voter will vote NCP or cong when there is no SS candidate and BJP is fighting. Similarly, how many NCP or Cong voter will vote SS when these parties are not fighting and BJP is.
Only difference with UP is that all these 3 parties have their core strength area that is mutually exclusive ( at least SS and NCP). It would be fun to watch the daily contradiction. I have a feeling that cong will pull off support within a year because of these contradictions

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby shravanp » 11 Nov 2019 09:15

Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 11 Nov 2019 09:37

shravanp wrote:Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.


What to do? The people of MH will get what they voted for.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 11 Nov 2019 09:39

KL Dubey wrote:By insisting on NDA exit by SS as a condition to even consider NCP support, Pawar is exploring the possibility of an opening to join the NDA after the SS stupidly bumps itself out. The lessons learned by Nitishwa and Chandranna can't be lost on him, whereas I doubt the SS dorks get it.

I just cannot figure out how Shiv Sena is willing to accept any humiliating terms & conditions to form the government and get the CM chair. I get a feeling that a lot of Hindutwavadi Shiv Sainiks would start moving to BJP camp. For Udhav and his son the sole aim is to sit in CM's chair at least once, and they are willing to disband the party after that.

shravanp wrote:They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.

They can a sabotage it once. But if the BJP propaganda machinery is strong enough it can clearly tell the Marathi Manoos that Shiv Sena has dumped them. And all said and done the harm SS can cause is limited to MH. They don't make a huge national level impact.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Deans » 11 Nov 2019 09:49

The real cash cow for the SS has been the Mumbai municipal corporation where BJP provides support. If that support is withdrawn, it would be a very shaky combination of SS+Cong+NCP running the city. It would be interesting to see how the three would split seats in any future State or BMC election.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby abhijitm » 11 Nov 2019 09:57

I have been judging few generation loyal SS voters, they are not happy with whats going on, but they will never ditch SS and shift their vote to other party. I am guessing SS has done this homework knowing not many of their voters are fence sitters. So, whatever they do will be eventually forgiven.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kashi » 11 Nov 2019 10:35

abhijitm wrote:I have been judging few generation loyal SS voters, they are not happy with whats going on, but they will never ditch SS and shift their vote to other party. I am guessing SS has done this homework knowing not many of their voters are fence sitters. So, whatever they do will be eventually forgiven.


Not to berate them at al, but that sounds like loyal INC voters.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Schmidt » 11 Nov 2019 10:37

I think BJP should agree to rotational CM post but Insist on first shot and give SS the next turn
Use the time to eliminate the political leadership by legal means
Next elections fight on their own and get rid of SS as a political force in Maharashtra

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Raghunathgb » 11 Nov 2019 10:41

Shivasena was starring at a slow death. In a way it was observing that bjp was eating shivasena slowly and eventually it would have killed it by next term if fadnavis alone ruled the government. I think shivasena made a right decision to demand for a CM post. Instead of guaranteed death by next term , they are trying new options. Even new option might not work and they might still vanish, however I think it is a right step by shivasena in trying to do last effort to save it's party.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 10:47

Raghunathgb wrote:Shivasena was starring at a slow death. In a way it was observing that bjp was eating shivasena slowly and eventually it would have killed it by next term if fadnavis alone ruled the government. I think shivasena made a right decision to demand for a CM post. Instead of guaranteed death by next term , they are trying new options. Even new option might not work and they might still vanish, however I think it is a right step by shivasena in trying to do last effort to save it's party.

Yes, Abhi nahin to kabhi nahin was a well understood point, both by SS and others. But this too won't save them.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 10:48

Schmidt wrote:I think BJP should agree to rotational CM post but Insist on first shot and give SS the next turn
Use the time to eliminate the political leadership by legal means
Next elections fight on their own and get rid of SS as a political force in Maharashtra

This is not just about MH but rest of the states too, eg Haryana.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 10:53

shravanp wrote:Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.

Such a conflicted government won't last long.

BJP too must have done all the scenario analysis. Utlimate winner will be BJP & NCP at the cost of SS & CON.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Nov 2019 11:00

shravanp wrote:Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.


this is just a SS pressure tactic in their game of hardball.

They can always join back because the BJP did not tell them to go.

I think that they may still be hoping that the BJP comes back.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kittoo » 11 Nov 2019 11:10

chetak wrote:
shravanp wrote:Arvind Sawant resigns (SS minister in Center).

Looks like SS-NCP-Cong government in MH. As much as I am happy with the fact that BJP has now split with SS, I am equally terrified of prospects (SS+Cong+NCP) rule over MH. They could sabotage all the good work being done, especially a lot of infra work being done in Mumbai.


this is just a SS pressure tactic in their game of hardball.

They can always join back because the BJP did not tell them to go.

I think that they may still be hoping that the BJP comes back.


I read on Twitter by some news account that Shiv Sena will officially quit NDA today. I dont think its a pressure tactic. I think they are hell bent on their own destruction.
Vinash kale viprit budhhi and all.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby BSR Murthy » 11 Nov 2019 11:29

https://twitter.com/abhijitmajumder/sta ... 96352?s=20
Shiv Sena may have triggered beginning of its end.
* Uddhav is now king blinded by love for son
* Congress-NCP pact will wreck Hindutva base, come as betrayal of Bal Thackeray to core Marathi voters
* Claiming CM post as distant 2nd is wrong
* Shah’s full predator mode activated

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 11 Nov 2019 11:33

Is SS trying to be too clever by half. If I am not mistaken, NCP's demand was that they severe links with BJP/NDA, and SS MP resigns from the NDA cabinet at the center. Now SS has acceded to the second, but is it trying to have the cake and eat it too by staying put in the NDA as an insurance? BJP should probably thrown them SS out. Good riddance. What a disgusting dynastic entitlement being enacted by SS.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Nov 2019 11:35

kittoo wrote:
chetak wrote:
this is just a SS pressure tactic in their game of hardball.

They can always join back because the BJP did not tell them to go.

I think that they may still be hoping that the BJP comes back.


I read on Twitter by some news account that Shiv Sena will officially quit NDA today. I dont think its a pressure tactic. I think they are hell bent on their own destruction.
Vinash kale viprit budhhi and all.


If they are so hell bent on following a different path, there is surely a deeper malaise and the BJP, disciplined though it may be, is too quiet.

If the SS do cobble up a majority, then the bihari lot with nitishwa will revolt next.

The role of prashant kishore is like that of a well entrenched termite eating away at the innards. This evil character has been running his own agenda from day one. He has helped out all interests inimical to the BJP and Hindutva. Bengal, AP, Bihar, and now MAH. All states where abrahamic forces are making a desperate bid for primacy.



At stake are the RS seats.
Last edited by chetak on 11 Nov 2019 11:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Nov 2019 11:37

CRamS wrote:Is SS trying to be too clever by half. If I am not mistaken, NCP's demand was that they severe links with BJP/NDA, and SS MP resigns from the NDA cabinet at the center. Now SS has acceded to the second, but is it trying to have the cake and eat it too by staying put in the NDA as an insurance? BJP should probably thrown them SS out. Good riddance. What a disgusting dynastic entitlement being enacted by SS.


If the SS stays in the NDA, the BJP will let them but they will ignore them completely.

na ghar ka, na ghat ka.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 11:56

On Maharashtra politics

1. BJP wanted the alliance to be broken by SS to avoid the charge of backstabbing. No matter what the SS says, in the public eyes, it broke the hindutva alliance. That leaves BJP free to do its own thing without worrying about handing SS an emotive issue.

2. Will be interesting to watch out for the "common minimum program" document for the alliance. Will it have hindutva elements or will it not? Will it have sickular elements or will it not?

CON/Left almost always insists for common minimum program as part of an alliance. Will be interesting what the CON forces the SS to accept as part of common minimum program. I am going to watch out for that.

3. After the government is formed, how will SS and CON/NCP react to sickular/hindutva taunts/baits thrown at the very unnatural alliance will be interesting.

E.g. BJP could invite UT/AT to the a function to felicitate MH locals who facilitated the Ram temple and test it hindutva credentials. If SS joins the celebration on Ram temple it will upset the sickular vote of NCP/CON. OTOH, if they skip, it will upset the hindutva base of SS. They are many ways to test the parties and their voters.

SS has willingly walked into quicksand that is likely to sink them.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 11 Nov 2019 12:13

In a way, ss is first saffron party to fall. it is win win for anti-bjp folks.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vimal » 11 Nov 2019 12:16

syam wrote:In a way, ss is first saffron party to fall. it is win win for anti-bjp folks.


Really?? Thacakrey of SS was picked out of nowhere by Congress to defeat Communists. They end where they started from. The whole Hindu thing is a facade and junk politics.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2019 12:18

syam wrote:In a way, ss is first saffron party to fall. it is win win for anti-bjp folks.

Very short lived happiness.

Tell us who will compromise? SS on its hindutva or CON on its sickular policy? Or maybe both can stick to hindutva and sickularism both at the same time. Will be an interesting experiment to watch. First hint will come with the common minimum program document.

As far I can see, it is win win for BJP and loose loose for SS and CON. SS hindutva vote will migrate to BJP while CON's sickular vote will migrate to NCP.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby greatde » 11 Nov 2019 12:33

Sickular votes are completely united in stopping BJP. Will happily vote any XYZ. They know SS is a dynasty party and putra- moh is all that matters. As long as Thackarary gets their desired piece of cake, they will dance to their tunes...

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Nov 2019 12:38

greatde wrote:Sickular votes are completely united in stopping BJP. Will happily vote any XYZ. They know SS is a dynasty party and putra- moh is all that matters. As long as Thackarary gets their desired piece of cake, they will dance to their tunes...


SS will be opposed by migrants which it viciously targeted at one time and no one has forgotten that part of the SS's rise.

Migrants form a very considerable part of the urban vote in MAH.

Beedis not included.


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