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Baby, I'm dancing in the dark
With you between my arms
Barefoot on the grass
Listening to our favourite song
When you said you looked a mess
I whispered underneath my breath
But you heard it
Darling, you look perfect tonight !!
1. A case was presented to GOI to give waiver on AMCA MK1 project
2. MK1 wont be a SPV
3. GoI may “soon approve” funds for prototypes and likely HAL will make them
Now these egoists have decided to do some half-hearted formality, before setting a vendor of choice for import of 5th gen ac?.
Development of India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) fifth-generation fighter aircraft programme is expected to accelerate in 2024 following New Delhi's approval of the design and prototype programme, according to a project official.
The official, a member of India's Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), confirmed to Janes that the Indian government's Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved the project on 7 March. The approval allows funding of up to INR150 trillion (USD1.8 billion) to be disbursed to the programme.
The ADA, which is a lab of India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), has been developing the AMCA since 2008.
The prototypes will be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Janes understands that the ADA/HAL project team will initiate activities for the prototyping of the aircraft.
“With the approval of the programme, multiple activities will start simultaneously to support prototype development,” the official told Janes on 9 March. “Our objective is to produce five prototypes within four-and-a-half years and five years, by 2028–2029. That is our timeline.”
Consequently, the source said that all initial development-related activities have priority. “We expect 2024 to be a hectic year for prototyping activities,” the official added. “HAL could start metal cutting for the prototypes in six months. Other activities such as setting up the jigs and assembly line will also start. We will also start the process of setting up the supply chain for the programme.”
Confirms that prototype building activities will now start with the beginning of disbursement of upto $1.5 billion in funds. This will allow the construction of 5 prototypes within 4.5-5 years, by 2028-2029.
The AMCA is the most significant military project cleared by the Narendra Modi government before the Lok Sabha election. However, it is learnt that there was opposition, including from a section in the armed forces, against the AMCA on account of its high cost. But its developers told the PMO that the project risked losing its relevance if it did not receive the go-ahead now, and that other countries, just like Turkey has, would steal a march on India in developing a stealth jet.
srai wrote: ↑06 Apr 2024 09:54
No money for Rafales
indeed one should closely monitor the activities of those people citing "high cost" ..Air Force fighter aircraft are costly but when made it India it expands the technological base of the country. Every Rupee spend inside the country generates much more in returns by way of expertise capability and manufacturing
Folks, I need to pick the bright brains at BRF about a realistic volume projection of AMCA. As some of you might know / guessed, my KB is in race to supply some gizmos, and the management needs input on realistic business prospects. Since none of my past projections to them came reliably true (their view, not mine) they are asking many questions.
I remember the number 56 sometime back. There is a dynamic between MK2 and AMCA which also need to be looked at.
I am a little confused too. Any help is highly appreciated. Input here, or via e-mail (dileepks at jeemeyil), or DM at teetar (@DileepKumarS196) will work.
We will need to replace all the MKIs in the future. That is 270-282. IMO AMCA will replace MKI.
IMO fuel volume will end up dictating what missions we can and cannot do with AMCA.
If we touch 7K kgs of internal fuel, we should be looking at almost 1:1 MKI mission replacement.
40 MK1 - well published
180-220 - Second tranche (similar to Mk1 and Mk2 numbers)
We are starting to come around to 200 of a type with our thinking/planning.
The second tranche depends on the Safran-DRDO or DRDO-GE414+ type being confirmed.
I recall reading in an interview that the internal fuel capacity was around 6,500 kilograms in the past. I will need to search for the article/interview to confirm. If the current capacity is within the range of 7,000 to 7,500 kilograms, combined with the lighter weight of the platform, it could enable the aircraft to perform every mission with a slightly lower/lesser capacity payload. This, in turn, may lead to an increase in the number of aircraft ordered as replacements.
The world is moving towards miniaturization and precision, so who knows how the weapons change in the future. If SDB becomes the norm, then reduction in payload may be a nothing burger.
Uptime experience gained from Mk1, Mk1A, Mk2 will play a huge role in the number of aircraft as well. MKI uptimes vary from 50%-75% over time (Different cag reports)
Cybaru wrote: ↑22 Apr 2024 12:40
We will need to replace all the MKIs in the future. That is 270-282. IMO AMCA will replace MKI.
[---snip---]
180-220 - Second tranche (similar to Mk1 and Mk2 numbers)
We are starting to come around to 200 of a type with our thinking/planning.
The numbers are highly optimistic. In my view MoD is in a for a shock when it receives an official estimation of LCC for AMCA.
USA with all their money wouldn't produce beyond 190 of their 2nd gen stealth fighter. Even China, famous for printing a design, isn't churning out their 1st gen stealth fighter but iterating on it still. There is too much to learn wrt planning, maintainance & availibilty for a 5th gen to put into manufacturing. US could do that (partially?) only in their 3rd gen stealth i.e. F35.
This is India's 1st gen stealth & frankly I cannot see it go beyond 100 in total (Mk1 & Mk2 combined). Ofcourse this assumes that theres no major rework being taken in Mk2 to reduce procurement + LCC essentially making it a different aircraft.
The only way above numbers can come true IF GoI of the day is left with no option other than to bite the bullet & order the aircraft albeit in tranches with small changes.
Cybaru wrote: ↑22 Apr 2024 12:40
We will need to replace all the MKIs in the future. That is 270-282. IMO AMCA will replace MKI.
[---snip---]
Hopefully others chime in with their estimates.
The numbers are highly optimistic. In my view MoD is in a for a shock when it receives an official estimation of LCC for AMCA.
USA with all their money wouldn't produce beyond 190 of their 2nd gen stealth fighter. Even China, famous for printing a design, isn't churning out their 1st gen stealth fighter but iterating on it still. There is too much to learn wrt planning, maintainance & availibilty for a 5th gen to put into manufacturing. US could do that (partially?) only in their 3rd gen stealth i.e. F35.
This is India's 1st gen stealth & frankly I cannot see it go beyond 100 in total (Mk1 & Mk2 combined). Ofcourse this assumes that theres no major rework being taken in Mk2 to reduce procurement + LCC essentially making it a different aircraft.
The only way above numbers can come true IF GoI of the day is left with no option other than to bite the bullet & order the aircraft albeit in tranches with small changes.
Sure, you are welcome to post your own estimates for Dileep instead of responding to my numbers. That would be a better way to approach it.
Dileep wrote: ↑22 Apr 2024 08:58
Folks, I need to pick the bright brains at BRF about a realistic volume projection of AMCA. As some of you might know / guessed, my KB is in race to supply some gizmos, and the management needs input on realistic business prospects. Since none of my past projections to them came reliably true (their view, not mine) they are asking many questions.
I remember the number 56 sometime back. There is a dynamic between MK2 and AMCA which also need to be looked at.
I am a little confused too. Any help is highly appreciated. Input here, or via e-mail (dileepks at jeemeyil), or DM at teetar (@DileepKumarS196) will work.
Thks in advance.
2 squadrons Mk1 and then 4-6 squadrons Mk2 = 6x20 = 120 aircraft. Or 160 if we really continue to grow and have no conflict/fight before that.
With the new engine this was the original plan. The new engine will take 10 years easily even if we run as fast as we can. AMCA itself has been funded right now so there is that commitment. I'd say those initial numbers still look good, even if the UCAV & CATS programs mature in the next 10 years and reduce need for manned fighters.
Dileep wrote: ↑22 Apr 2024 08:58
Folks, I need to pick the bright brains at BRF about a realistic volume projection of AMCA. As some of you might know / guessed, my KB is in race to supply some gizmos, and the management needs input on realistic business prospects. Since none of my past projections to them came reliably true (their view, not mine) they are asking many questions.
I remember the number 56 sometime back. There is a dynamic between MK2 and AMCA which also need to be looked at.
I am a little confused too. Any help is highly appreciated. Input here, or via e-mail (dileepks at jeemeyil), or DM at teetar (@DileepKumarS196) will work.
Thks in advance.
2 squadrons Mk1 and then 4-6 squadrons Mk2 = 6x20 = 120 aircraft. Or 160 if we really continue to grow and have no conflict/fight before that.
With the new engine this was the original plan. The new engine will take 10 years easily even if we run as fast as we can. AMCA itself has been funded right now so there is that commitment. I'd say those initial numbers still look good, even if the UCAV & CATS programs mature in the next 10 years and reduce need for manned fighters.
Please do expect a Tejas Mk2A & a AMCA Mk1A version in the coming years. All great plans fail or will need a change based on the circumstances of that time period or decade. Let's pray that we don't have to go thru the pains of IOC and FOC again in these projects.
Dileep wrote: ↑22 Apr 2024 08:58
Folks, I need to pick the bright brains at BRF about a realistic volume projection of AMCA. .....
I remember the number 56 sometime back. There is a dynamic between MK2 and AMCA which also need to be looked at.
I am a little confused too. Any help is highly appreciated. Input here, or via e-mail (dileepks at jeemeyil), or DM at teetar (@DileepKumarS196) will work.
Thks in advance.
IMHO 4 Sqns (80 units) at most, as significant derivative will become necessary after that although built on reusing framework design, Aero components and sensors
) on the announcement of AMCA developmental funds getting sanctioned.
