2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Vikas
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 26 Feb 2020 21:43

Srutayus wrote:Any thoughts on spinning off a think-tank from BR?
Anyone interested in pursuing this thought?


That is a super idea.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 21:45

Modi will prevail in the end but in the interim the narrative against India/Hindus will be set.

From what little I gleaned while I was offline with occassional peep into the twitter world, Wikipedia already has a page on the riots with Kapil Mishra as the central character and Dukhta Butt already has a WaPo fart again making Kapil Mishra as the center piece. Delhi HC already insisting that FIR be registered against 4 BJP people and that will close the narrative loop as BJP sponsored riot, truth be dammed. Soon this will be the narrative all over the globe.

This is how the narrative is built. Will update as I catch up.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 26 Feb 2020 21:52

Meanwhile for those who find the idea of asking for complete transfer of population abhorant and would like to throw a central Minister under the bus.

http://www.sacw.net/article2880.html
That the transfer of minorities is the only lasting remedy for communal peace is beyond doubt.


Someone was ahead of the curve even in 1940's and 50's and he wasn't even on BRF.

Be that as it may, the question does not concern the Hindus. The question that concerns the Hindus is : How far does the creation of Pakistan remove the communal question from Hindustan ? That is a very legitimate question and must be considered. It must be admitted that by the creation of Pakistan, Hindustan is not freed of the communal question. While Pakistan can be made a homogeneous state by redrawing its boundaries, Hindustan must remain a composite state. The Musalmans are scattered all over Hindustan—though they are mostly congregated in towns—and no ingenuity in the matter of redrawing of boundaries can make it homogeneous. The only way to make Hindustan homogeneous is to arrange for exchange of population. Until that is done, it must be admitted that even with the creation of Pakistan, the problem of majority vs. minority will remain in Hindustan as before and will continue to produce disharmony in the body politic of Hindustan..

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 26 Feb 2020 21:57

pankajs wrote:Modi will prevail in the end but in the interim the narrative against India/Hindus will be set.

From what little I gleaned while I was offline with occassional peep into the twitter world, Wikipedia already has a page on the riots with Kapil Mishra as the central character and Dukhta Butt already has a WaPo fart again making Kapil Mishra as the center piece. Delhi HC already insisting that FIR be registered against 4 BJP people and that will close the narrative loop as BJP sponsored riot, truth be dammed. Soon this will be the narrative all over the globe.

This is how the narrative is built. Will update as I catch up.


Pankajs, It is not about who will prevail in the end but the narrative of Modi Ji being a strong leader gets demolished brick by brick with such insane acts of administrative lapse resulting in death and mayhem.
Cops across India are generally ill equipped and incompetent to handle stronger forces of violence and riots but what has the state done to equip Police with better tools to scale up.

There has to be superior response from the state machinery to make people feel confident about the govt again.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 21:57

pankajs wrote:Modi will prevail in the end but in the interim the narrative against India/Hindus will be set.

From what little I gleaned while I was offline with occassional peep into the twitter world, Wikipedia already has a page on the riots with Kapil Mishra as the central character and Dukhta Butt already has a WaPo fart again making Kapil Mishra as the center piece. Delhi HC already insisting that FIR be registered against 4 BJP people and that will close the narrative loop as BJP sponsored riot, truth be dammed. Soon this will be the narrative all over the globe.

This is how the narrative is built. Will update as I catch up.

This
https://twitter.com/BDUTT/status/1232559861264781312
barkha dutt @BDUTT

BJP's Kapil Mishra had warned "We will keep the peace till Trump leaves and then...". Turns out the mob didn't wait even that long. I write in @washingtonpost : Trump came, but India's politics of hate is what the world saw. Read, share

And This
https://twitter.com/OpIndia_com/status/ ... 8489302018
OpIndia.com @OpIndia_com

Wikipedia article titled North East Delhi riots was created on Tuesday by a senior Wikipedia editor that hoes by the username DBigXray. When one visits the page, the first image one sees is the photo of BJP leader Kapil Mishra, not an image of the riots.

Narrative building has started ...

Modi will prevail at the end but what is the cost of ill-planning? From now on can Hindus outrun the falsehood in this case?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 22:00

Vikas wrote:
pankajs wrote:Modi will prevail in the end but in the interim the narrative against India/Hindus will be set.

From what little I gleaned while I was offline with occassional peep into the twitter world, Wikipedia already has a page on the riots with Kapil Mishra as the central character and Dukhta Butt already has a WaPo fart again making Kapil Mishra as the center piece. Delhi HC already insisting that FIR be registered against 4 BJP people and that will close the narrative loop as BJP sponsored riot, truth be dammed. Soon this will be the narrative all over the globe.

This is how the narrative is built. Will update as I catch up.


Pankajs, It is not about who will prevail in the end but the narrative of Modi Ji being a strong leader gets demolished brick by brick with such insane acts of administrative lapse resulting in death and mayhem.
Cops across India are generally ill equipped and incompetent to handle stronger forces of violence and riots but what has the state done to equip Police with better tools to scale up.

There has to be superior response from the state machinery to make people feel confident about the govt again.

No it does not. GOI will prevail and this temporary dip will fade and he will bounce back within India & his core base.

Problem in unnecessary burden of global opinion that will now be placed on the back of Hindus worldwide because of not nipping the rumor monger early in the game. The narrative against the Hindus worldwide is being built brick by brick.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rishi_Tri » 26 Feb 2020 22:03

Between fast spreading Corona, stock market crash, and economic mess to follow, the International community gives two hoots to what's happening in Delhi. More people die in US in random lone wolf shooting or stabbing attack across Europe. GOI is right in letting this fester and letting the still seculars see what secularism stands for and its already having the affect. Also, these matters are best allowed to play on streets. The number to watch is H / M ratio after street play. Paramilitary etc. forces can come in for flag march, peace after the street play has played out.

As to Kapil Mishra speech, the FIR; it shall be worthwhile to recall the many speeches of Yogi Ji.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 26 Feb 2020 22:04

I appreciate Karan M’s points. Thanks for taking the time to articulate them.

In a war between the forces of instability (FOI) and the forces of stability, (FOS) a sufficiently determined FOI always has the advantage. FOS can still win with intelligence, infiltration and co-ordinated action, but it requires a high degree of ability.

Back in the 70s and 80s, before NTR and TDP, destabilizing religious warfare was a regular feature of Hyderabad, especially Old City. NTR’s formula, from what I could tell, had the following elements:

1. popular mandate for himself

2. decent administration and service delivery

3. heightened police intelligence and operational capabilities

4. quantum raise in economic stakes and opportunities, showing the FOI that they can share in the stakes, and become part of the FOS

5. A largely disciplined party leadership cadre that can take direction

I see echoes of 1, 2 and 4 in Modi’s strategy, maybe not so much of 3 (apparently) and 5. Also, Modi is faced with a challenge to add an element 6 ( which I don’t think NTR had to)

6. State and demonstrate that he will stop at nothing to protect his agenda.

6 is a highly risky and dangerous step which could backfire seriously and doom India and Hindus.

Is there any way burkha forum could be reactivated for serious, frank and productive discussion?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vikas » 26 Feb 2020 22:07

pankajs wrote:
Vikas wrote:……...
Problem in unnecessary burden of global opinion that will not be placed on the back of Hindus worldwide because of not nipping the rumor monger early in the game.


We have a poster who gets more concerned about what media is saying about BJP and India.
I still believe there has to be a strong response from the state and not from Judiciary. The longer it plays out, more opportunities it gives to the Judiciary and urban Naxals to insert themselves into the situation as players.
The minor skirmish just turned into a battle in last few days and may expand into a full fledged war.

In politics as in cricket, timing is supreme and the perception going around is that Modi Ji was afraid of spoiling the party organized for PoTUS.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 22:15

Vikas wrote:
pankajs wrote:


We have a poster who gets more concerned about what media is saying about BJP and India.
I still believe there has to be a strong response from the state and not from Judiciary. The longer it plays out, more opportunities it gives to the Judiciary and urban Naxals to insert themselves into the situation as players.
The minor skirmish just turned into a battle in last few days and may expand into a full fledged war.

In politics as in cricket, timing is supreme and the perception going around is that Modi Ji was afraid of spoiling the party organized for PoTUS.

Your quote of my write is messed up so posting mine in full below again. You can check it by scrolling up to the post that you tried quoting.
pankajs wrote:
Vikas wrote:Pankajs, It is not about who will prevail in the end but the narrative of Modi Ji being a strong leader gets demolished brick by brick with such insane acts of administrative lapse resulting in death and mayhem.
Cops across India are generally ill equipped and incompetent to handle stronger forces of violence and riots but what has the state done to equip Police with better tools to scale up.

There has to be superior response from the state machinery to make people feel confident about the govt again.

No it does not. GOI will prevail and this temporary dip will fade and he will bounce back within India & his core base.

Problem in unnecessary burden of global opinion that will now be placed on the back of Hindus worldwide because of not nipping the rumor monger early in the game. The narrative against the Hindus worldwide is being built brick by brick.
Please read carefully before replying ...

To reiterate, "GOI will prevail and this temporary dip will fade and he will bounce back within India & his core base". Here "GOI" should be read as Modi as you will notice my use of "he/his" later in the sentence.

My worry is what "additional burden" this narrative building will place on the "Hindus".
Last edited by pankajs on 26 Feb 2020 22:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Bart S » 26 Feb 2020 22:16

Vikas wrote:If LG of Delhi owns the administrative ops of DP, then he must be replaced once this mayhem subsides.
In the garb of Shaheen bagh, a sinister plan was being cooked which has come to fore in last 2-3 days.
The plan seems to be to create a situation where govt seems incompetent and clueless.
My hunch is that post Godhra stink, Modi Ji might be reluctant to use force on Jehadis or even harsh clamp down.
The sad part is that Modi Ji was elected on one of the pillars being decisive and strong leader yet in this who anti-CAA campaign, he is looking like someone who is vacillating, first with Budget, then Delhi elections and now Trump visit.
Corts seems to be more active and involved than Administration. This time they cant even blame AAP or congress or even Urban naxals.
What happened in courts today shows the kind of incompetent allies and extremely sharp in deep rooted enemies he is dealing with.
One of his key mistake was not to clean up the Babudom in 2014.


Both BJP and AAP did nothing about the Shaheen Bagh nonsense in a cynical ploy to enable polarization and keep+enhance their respective vote banks ahead of the election. For AAP it wasn't out of character so their supporters had little explaining to do, but BJP supporters kept spinning how this inaction was some great Chankaian plan (this is a recurring theme to explain away incompetence). It was clear as daylight to any informed person that the urban naxals were the ones orchestrating this stuff. This should have been cleaned up within days rather than let it fester and leaving ourselves more vulnerable. What YA did in UP was the right way to deal with this, so it's not like it wasn't possible or they didn't know how. Heck even TN cops squashed these kinds of events even before it got started, with suitable danda applied.

I will add that waiting on courts to make the first movement, is a really bad option in this scenario and equivalent to abdication of responsibilities. Waiting for/working through courts makes sense in stuff like RJB action plan etc, but not in basic law and order (actually anti-terrorist/anti-hostage) operations.
Last edited by Bart S on 26 Feb 2020 22:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nitinbhasin02 » 26 Feb 2020 22:20

Vikas wrote:
Srutayus wrote:Any thoughts on spinning off a think-tank from BR?
Anyone interested in pursuing this thought?


That is a super idea.


True. Think-tank without an agenda. :)

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 22:21

I was fine with the Shaheen bagh drama till elections and even after but the lapse is in the intelligence and response so much so that ...

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1232521211181010945
ANI @ANI

Govt sources: NSA Ajit Doval has been given the charge of bringing Delhi violence under control. He's going to brief PM&Cabinet about the situation. NSA last night visited Jafrabad,Seelampur&other parts of #NortheastDelhi where he held talks with leaders of different communities.

NSA to be given charge of bringing Delhi under control! This is very concerning. NSA is supposed to be overall supervisor. How will he manage if this repeats in multiple location simultaneously?

This is an admission of failure at some level.

There is also a possibility that Modi/Shah were sabotaged/misguided from within and that would mean BIF and/or anti-BJP forces are still strong in the department(s) and found an opportunity to embarrass Modi/Shah. In which case, heads must roll sooner or later.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 26 Feb 2020 22:37

Pratyush wrote:When I read the anguished posts on the forum I am reminded of a certain field marshal making the comment that the Hindu moral will not stand more than a few blows.

Be strong and rest assured that action will be taken.


Its not a question of morale, but of sheer WTF'ness that has characterized the GOI's decision making so far, six years into an administration which the electioneering itself claimed would be turned around overnight. There is a limit to patience.

Snide jabs at Hindu morale don't really affect my self-belief, but just increase my frustration at the incredible tone deafedness of some BJP voters/fans to what are by now glaring weaknesses evident to all but the aforesaid group. Will those comments help the Delhi police families who stood in front of frenzied mobs and were shot, tortured and killed, or are in hospitals. And the countless BJP workers whose corpses BJP IT cell idiots gleefully post on social media as some PR victory while almost no action on the ground has been taken against any of the perpetrators. Whom are they fooling? What kind of clueless administration ignored countless warnings from its apparatus as leaked in the media itself, and did a 370 and then a CAA without any idea of what would follow? Why wasnt RAF brought out in Delhi even as Modi was doing his Trump jamboree? Are you and I going to return those cops to their families?

Think about this organizationally. If you are a cop and you know you will be bludgeoned to pieces, tortured to bits, and zero action will be undertaken as retaliation, at best only bandobast and riot management, will you take a stand tomorrow when other rioters appear? Will you as a bureaucrat take a stand based on moral integrity when some NGO type files a fake PIL and threatens you for your decisions, and the GOI goes mumble mumble but doesnt support you? Nobody respects cowardice or appeasement.

Tell me, tomorrow, in another great show of sang froid, CAA is enacted, and riots occur country wide, and some BJP strategist sagely decides that "let the public see the real face of the rioting crowd" etc and more cops are bludgeoned, killed and the common public is exposed, tell me how many of these so called BJP leaders will actually face the music? No, the average cop, guy on the ground, BJP/RSS worker will be knocked off. Enough please - a message to the folks in charge. Start taking your responsibilities seriously. You weren't elected to become a new-age Gandhi and wave to cheering crowds abroad who live in countries where their taxes deliver far more return on their investment and law and order is a given. You were expected to take hard decisions and implement them in a manner using the power of the state effectively. Article 370 was mostly an OK win. Mismanaged optics but then, comes CAA, not even an attempt at managing the fall-out.

Dhoti shivering about international media. They hate you already. So do other Islamist nations. What are lobbyist groups about? You run electoral bonds of hundreds of crores, you cant spend a few on these groups to counter the narrative Pakistan of all countries does better than you ever did?

Did that narrative btw, stop Sardar Patel from Op Polo? Did that stop LBS from crossing the IB in 1965? Or Indira Gandhi from staring down the 7th fleet in 1971? India at a fraction of the strength it has today.

This is not even a fraction of that. Less Howdy Modi and more Howdy National Security/anti-Islamism, anti-Leftism please. Literally unable to have propaganda outlets toe your line, whereas if IG snapped her fingers these corrupt jokers would be falling over themselves to kow-tow. You think it is some great moral victory to have CBI at your beck and call, and won't use them. Sure, your opponents are just high-fiving themselves at the kind of folks the current GOI has, have power but can't wield it for nuts. Javdekar brags, actually brags about doing nothing to education. Now, an entire group of kids who were 14 in 2014 are now 18-19 and are wielding Insta and social media against you. BJP supporters include some of the most articulate and forceful individuals possible. How many of them are in the BJP today? Or even handling positions of authority?

Where are the RW lawyers who support you when some LW group files a fake case against your guys? No, all the RW has to go on is the same concern the BJP shows its workers who get slaughtered on the ground in WB and elsewhere. Social media twitter posts about unfairness.

And no, our chosen leader is not infallible. He began term 2 with paeans to minority vishwas and how it was essential to win it back. Followed it up with more sops harvested from my and your tax money. He also went ahead and started programs to increase the intake of M's into GOI decision making posts like IAS. Zero thoughts given to de-radicalization. What has that Gandhi giri achieved, please tell? All the bloviating about Triple Talaq which BJP strategists ensured us was a master stroke.

And now we are told UCC is the answer. How does UCC or any law help us, when riot power on the ground is what matters? And even cops are helpless?
And yes, I do think even Modi needs to be questioned lest hubris land him in a spot wherein we all end up being fodder for the ever greening machine that is appeasement politics which all populist politicians fall victim to.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby SBajwa » 26 Feb 2020 22:54

In any other country a person pointing a gun at police official would be shot dead right there. Only in India police is forced to not do anything.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 26 Feb 2020 23:01

pankajs wrote:I was fine with the Shaheen bagh drama till elections and even after but the lapse is in the intelligence and response so much so that ...

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1232521211181010945
ANI @ANI

Govt sources: NSA Ajit Doval has been given the charge of bringing Delhi violence under control. He's going to brief PM&Cabinet about the situation. NSA last night visited Jafrabad,Seelampur&other parts of #NortheastDelhi where he held talks with leaders of different communities.

NSA to be given charge of bringing Delhi under control! This is very concerning. NSA is supposed to be overall supervisor. How will he manage if this repeats in multiple location simultaneously?

This is an admission of failure at some level.

There is also a possibility that Modi/Shah were sabotaged/misguided from within and that would mean BIF and/or anti-BJP forces are still strong in the department(s) and found an opportunity to embarrass Modi/Shah. In which case, heads must roll sooner or later.


Who embarrassed whom, and who fooled themselves thinking Gandhi-giri was the answer?

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/pm ... 59665.html

In his address, Modi reached out to minorities, who he said have been cheated by the opposition and called for the lawmakers to earn their trust and put an end to the deception immediately. "We have worked for sabka saath, sabka vikas, now we have to strive for sabka vishwas," the PM said.

"The way the poor have been cheated, the minorities have been deceived the same way. It would have been good if their education, their health had been in focus. Minorities have been made to live in fear by those who believed in vote-bank politics. I expect from you in 2019 that you would be able to make a hole in that deception. We have to earn their trust," he added.


I ask a simple question. If you are a BJP lawmaker, and you see the last line, are you going to be a Gautam Gambhir equivocating etc or not? If you aren't, then chances are you weren't listening to the message above.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sumair » 26 Feb 2020 23:05

https://in.linkedin.com/in/haji-tahir-hussain-2127a8138
This name is popping up all over the place as one of the main peaceful organizer.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sicanta » 26 Feb 2020 23:08

Yeah, even if we were to be cynical and assume that this is to massage his and the gov credentials infront of a crowd consisting of foreign govs, investors, secularists and who not, fact remains that the gov image is being tarnished regularly and effectively, showing them as oppressors of the same class. It turns they can't even do a decent job of sabka saath, sabka vikas then

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Bart S » 26 Feb 2020 23:11

SBajwa wrote:In any other country a person pointing a gun at police official would be shot dead right there. Only in India police is forced to not do anything.


No sir, it was either a> Chanakian exercise to expose the rioters :roll: or b> opportunity for policeman to display exceptional courage by not even flinching or both. Now having rationalized it, let us go back to sleeping, or being boiled slowly like the proverbial frog.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 26 Feb 2020 23:16

This was all the spend on the mega chamchagiri towards a privileged group, Rs 22,485 Crore. Multiple members of whom are now on TV, media, all threatening to take the Indian economy down with them, about India better withdraw the CAA (or else), and apart from torturing and mutilating a cop, and shooting multiple cops.

https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/secularis ... eficiaries

The Modi government substantially increased the area covered under PMJVK to 109 Minority Concentration District Headquarters (MCD), 870 Minority Concentration Blocks (MCB) and 321 Minority Concentration Towns (MCT) and Cluster of Minority Concentration Villages (CoMCV).

These 1,300 Minority Concentration Areas are spread over 308 districts of 32 States/UTs where the government has built Residential Schools, New Schools, College Buildings, Student Hostels, Additional Class Rooms, Laboratory Rooms in Schools, Computer Rooms, Toilets, ITIs, Polytechnics, Skill Training Centres, Working Women Hostels, Hospitals, Health Centres, Anganwadi Centres, Drinking Water Projects, Common Service Centres, Sadbhav Mandaps, Market Sheds etc.

These works are over and above the secular projects undertaken by the government in these areas.

Is this equality and secularism at work?

Take scholarships. The Minister informed the Parliament that in the first term of the Modi government, around 3.2 crore students belonging to six Minority communities got scholarships, half of them girls. But those who swear by equality and secularism don’t utter a word at this communal budgeting where poor students from minorities get the scholarships but poor students from the Hindu community don’t only because their religion is different.


Then this mega largesse with our tax money. I propose the money was better spent in bolstering CAPFs and RAF, and even the police forces in better dealing with rioters.

As part of the outreach, a day before, on June 11, the Modi government also announced a special scholarship scheme that would cover 50 million Muslim students. The scholarships are for pre-matric, post-matric and professional and technical course studies. The scheme, spread over the next five years, is meant to teach students modern subjects like mathematics, science and geography. Another scheme is meant to train and appoint professional teachers in the madrasas.

Interestingly, 50 per cent of the scholarships will be reserved for Muslim girls as the PM feels women should play a major role in any social or community reform.

"Through the scholarships, the Modi government is trying to create an atmosphere of healthy inclusive growth by eradicating the disease of communalism and appeasement politics," says Union minister for minority affairs, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi. "Our approach to the minorities is based on the three Es-- Education, Employment and Empowerment."

Modi's special measures have not been exactly greeted by hurrahs by the Sangh Parivar, particularly the RSS bodies who see these steps as part of minority appeasement. These outfits are the same ones who opposed the continuation of the 'minority affairs ministry' started by the previous UPA government to implement the Sachar Committee recommendations of reservations for Muslims.

Sections of the Sangh still believe the Sachar panel recommendations were flawed and bolstered the Muslim victimhood theory.


Perhaps the Sangh chaps knew the situation on the ground and realized that the freebies would be happily grabbed by a group which is heavily radicalized and ideologically committed?

Seriously, cult of personality apart, somewhere Modi has to start remembering why he was elected, and it was not to become a new MMS, with better targeted appeasement politics.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Bart S » 26 Feb 2020 23:16

Sumair wrote:https://in.linkedin.com/in/haji-tahir-hussain-2127a8138
This name is popping up all over the place as one of the main peaceful organizer.


A bunch of urban naxal organizations like this PinjraTod one (see below tweet and embedded images) were also responsible, especially in egging on a confrontation and preventing any pressure release valve even when some muslims wanted to back down.

https://twitter.com/Iyervval/status/123 ... 28032?s=20

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Rishi_Tri » 26 Feb 2020 23:19

Karan M wrote:
Pratyush wrote:When I read the anguished posts on the forum I am reminded of a certain field marshal making the comment that the Hindu moral will not stand more than a few blows.

Be strong and rest assured that action will be taken.


Its not a question of morale, but of sheer WTF'ness that has characterized the GOI's decision making so far, six years into an administration which the electioneering itself claimed would be turned around overnight. There is a limit to patience.
------
------
And yes, I do think even Modi needs to be questioned lest hubris land him in a spot wherein we all end up being fodder for the ever greening machine that is appeasement politics which all populist politicians fall victim to.


Abridged your quote to avoid lengthening the post.

With due respect to everything you said, immediate, swift and wide non state action is the best response and that is exactly what happened. Non state action shows that you are constantly under the watch, and not only when someone is wearing the uniform. In spite of State action in JK, not one Pandit family has returned.

BTW, after 370, Ayodhya Judgement, and CAA, this is perhaps minimum that should have been expected as reaction and the counter reaction has been more than enough to make the liberals shout blue murder on twitter.

PM has gone on record scores of times saying that CAA is needed precisely for these reasons and that is why his Delhi election pitch was totally centered on Terrorism. Yes, in first few weeks there was pronounced tilt to one side but that is long gone. I am sure you would recall his comment in one of the Pro CAA rallies that the protestors wear one kind of Libaas ie., clothing - enough hint.

There is indeed a civil war on ground. Karnataka was ground Zero. BSY won it there. Let Kapil Mishra win it in Delhi.

Also, let's not forget a certain President likes to ban all travel from certain religious majority countries.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 23:23

Karan M wrote:
pankajs wrote:I was fine with the Shaheen bagh drama till elections and even after but the lapse is in the intelligence and response so much so that ...

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1232521211181010945

NSA to be given charge of bringing Delhi under control! This is very concerning. NSA is supposed to be overall supervisor. How will he manage if this repeats in multiple location simultaneously?

This is an admission of failure at some level.

There is also a possibility that Modi/Shah were sabotaged/misguided from within and that would mean BIF and/or anti-BJP forces are still strong in the department(s) and found an opportunity to embarrass Modi/Shah. In which case, heads must roll sooner or later.


Who embarrassed whom, and who fooled themselves thinking Gandhi-giri was the answer?

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/pm ... 59665.html

In his address, Modi reached out to minorities, who he said have been cheated by the opposition and called for the lawmakers to earn their trust and put an end to the deception immediately. "We have worked for sabka saath, sabka vikas, now we have to strive for sabka vishwas," the PM said.

"The way the poor have been cheated, the minorities have been deceived the same way. It would have been good if their education, their health had been in focus. Minorities have been made to live in fear by those who believed in vote-bank politics. I expect from you in 2019 that you would be able to make a hole in that deception. We have to earn their trust," he added.


I ask a simple question. If you are a BJP lawmaker, and you see the last line, are you going to be a Gautam Gambhir equivocating etc or not? If you aren't, then chances are you weren't listening to the message above.

The statement and followup on it, if any, by itself is not wrong. Gas supply, Road, Healthcare, School, Agri schemes, etc for All are right.

What is wrong is when riot develops under you very nose over a period of months and you are caught napping. More than that even after 6 years, folks are able to brazenly lie and spread fake news and get away!

Media & Social media fake news impunity is the biggest failure of the GOI led by Modi/Shah.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sooraj » 26 Feb 2020 23:25

Delhi Violence Case in HC Moved From Justice Muralidhar’s Court

After a hearing on Wednesday, 26 February, which saw some powerful exchanges between him and Solicitor General Tushar Mehta, Justice S Muralidhar will no longer be hearing the petition filed by Harsh Mander, which has asked for FIRs to be registered against three BJP leaders whose provocative speeches are alleged to have played a role in the ongoing violence in Delhi.


While Justices Muralidhar and Talwant Singh ordered the case to be listed before them again at 2:15 pm on Thursday, 27 February, the new causelist shows that the matter has been listed before Delhi High Court Chief Justice DN Patel, instead of them.


Image

Mander’s petition was originally scheduled to be heard by Chief Justice DN Patel on an urgent basis on Wednesday. However, he was not present in court for the day, and nor was the next senior-most judge, Justice GS Sistani.

As a result, Mander’s lawyer, senior advocate Colin Gonsalves, mentioned the matter before Justice Muralidhar on Wednesday morning, as he was the most senior judge of the court present.

As the petition had been marked as urgent, Justice Muralidhar agreed to hear it, and issued notice to the Delhi authorities. The matter was listed for 12:30 pm, and what followed was a remarkable hearing, where he and Justice Talwant Singh asked tough questions of the Solicitor General and the Delhi Police.


Failure of Police to Assess Provocative Videos Called Out
The first instance of this came after Solicitor General Tushar Mehta argued that there was no urgent need to hear the petition, especially its request for registration of FIRs against BJP leaders Kapil Mishra, Parvesh Verma and Anurag Thakur, for their now notorious inflammatory speeches.

Mehta said he had not seen the videos of the controversial speeches, and to the judges’ surprise, the DCP (Crime Branch) Rajesh Deo, said he had not either.

“Are you saying even the Commissioner of Police has not seen the video?” the judges asked incredulously. Justice Muralidhar said that he was “amazed at the state of affairs of the Delhi Police” and ordered the video to be played for the police officers and the Solicitor General immediately in court.
fbtw
Following this, the judges gave Mehta and the police till 2:30 pm to take a view on whether Mishra’s speech was provocative and warranted the registration of an FIR.


‘Anguish, not Anger’
After the matter resumed, Mander’s lawyer Colin Gonsalves presented arguments on why the court should order FIRs against the BJP leaders.


The Solicitor General then cried foul about Mander’s petition, asking how he had selected just these three supposedly provocative speeches. He said there were many inflammatory speeches made by other people as well, which also disclosed cognisable offences, and so Mander needed to explain why he had only singled out these petitions.


“What you are saying shows the police in even worse light,” Justice Muralidhar pointed out. “You are saying the police not only failed to take action in these three clips but many more clips as well!”
fbtw
Mehta responded that the police was considering what to do, and that an FIR would be registered “at an appropriate stage.” To this, Justice Muralidhar asked “What is the appropriate stage? After the city has burnt down?”

He said that the court had a duty to protect the life and liberty of citizens., and that “as a constitutional court, we cannot be blind.” This was why, he argued, the court needed to go into the question of whether the FIRs should be registered or not, given the loss of lives in Delhi. “How many more lives must be lost?”

Mehta reiterated that the police was looking into it all, and could register the FIR when the situation was ‘conducive’ to do so.

“If you fail to take action, that conducive situation will not emerge,” Justice Muralidhar countered. In response to Mehta’s protestations that the judge was getting angry with him, he replied that the court was not demonstrating anger but anguish. “I hope this anguish is acknowledged, Mr Mehta,” he added.
fbtw
“We do not need a repeat of 1984,” the judge asserted, reiterating a sentiment he’d expressed at the previous emergency services case as well.

Following a brief interaction with DCP (Crime Branch) Rajesh Deo over the FIRs already registered in relation to the Delhi violence, the court then asked them to take the advice of Solicitor General Mehta and make a “conscious decision” about why they should or should not register cases against the BJP leaders and any others who had made inflammatory speeches.


It is unclear now, however, whether Chief Justice Patel will ask for compliance with the directions of Justice Muralidhar and Justice Talwant Singh, or whether he will hear arguments afresh.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 26 Feb 2020 23:29

Rishi_Tri,

What is this non state action sir? Is that an euphemism for communal riots? What happens to the average Hindu bhondu then who is mostly a daily wage earner and not inclined to any religious war? What state action has occurred in J&K btw? Bar just fighting militancy and taking out terrorists on a whack-the-mole basis. Has the state undertaken any demographic re-engineering? Resettled any Pandits? Prosecuted those responsible for the Pandit exodus? All they have done is repeal one law. Not any Op Polo for instance. Is this why the BJP was elected, so the average Hindu could wage religious war with religious extremists with the state benevolently watching? Is this how a nation can even be run? Surely not.

Then if non state action is the so called plan, can you tell me why the GOI also banned more than one gun per individual, never mind the fact that getting a license is hard for most folks? The facts dont add up sir - there is no real plan here, just play it as you go along, at least to my eyes.

As an individual without SPG cover, I am not particularly entranced by the PMs one-liners, I am more interested in ensuring his one-liners don't lead to communal violence from the folks who loathe him and his voters (including moi) which his apparatus seems singularly unprepared for.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 23:30

Sicanta wrote:Yeah, even if we were to be cynical and assume that this is to massage his and the gov credentials infront of a crowd consisting of foreign govs, investors, secularists and who not, fact remains that the gov image is being tarnished regularly and effectively, showing them as oppressors of the same class. It turns they can't even do a decent job of sabka saath, sabka vikas then

Restated, GOI has allowed a free run of fake news generators and that has been its biggest failure. Modi does not need an adoring media but a fair and balanced non-agenda driven media.

6 years they haven't been able to punish the fake news generators and fear mongers! That is ineptitude.

OTOH, with the courts, both SC and HC, calling in GOI's response, GOI should use the justification provided by the courts to really crack down on the fake news generators and fear mongers.

At least now Invoke the "causing enmity between communities" clause liberally with individuals and entities including media houses and draw a new lakshman rekha once for all!

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 26 Feb 2020 23:33

pankajs wrote:The statement and followup on it, if any, by itself is not wrong. Gas supply, Road, Healthcare, School, Agri schemes, etc for All are right.


The statement is definitely wrong, because it signifies a mindset that bribing folks is the way forward. And that too based on communal lines. Has he uttered something similar for Hindus and accorded funds accordingly? Is either a way forward?

What is wrong is when riot develops under you very nose over a period of months and you are caught napping. More than that even after 6 years, folks are able to brazenly lie and spread fake news and get away!

Media & Social media fake news impunity is the biggest failure of the GOI led by Modi/Shah.


Riots after riots, caste based ones and not a whit of action taken against most of the rioter's masterminds in Term 1. Now this. Media/SM is merely a long list of self-goals which are getting increasingly hard to countenance and bear.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby syam » 26 Feb 2020 23:38

people need to take chill pill and think about long term goals. it's feb 2020 for god's sake. Still more than 4 years are there. just think about 2023. there is nothing we can do on sm at this point as they are censoring every 'rw' opinion. better stay at our place(brf or other such forums) and analyze the situation without going emotional. strength of posters like us is not in advising govt. it was never the case.

with that out of the way, i want to say one thing about recent late night show jokers.

rejdeep and other pidis must be feeling quite unemployed with these clowns taking over their jobs. :D can't wait for eventual #BlowToModi.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 26 Feb 2020 23:40

Karan M wrote:
pankajs wrote:The statement and followup on it, if any, by itself is not wrong. Gas supply, Road, Healthcare, School, Agri schemes, etc for All are right.


The statement is definitely wrong, because it signifies a mindset that bribing folks is the way forward. And that too based on communal lines. Has he uttered something similar for Hindus and accorded funds accordingly? Is either a way forward?

What is wrong is when riot develops under you very nose over a period of months and you are caught napping. More than that even after 6 years, folks are able to brazenly lie and spread fake news and get away!

Media & Social media fake news impunity is the biggest failure of the GOI led by Modi/Shah.


Riots after riots, caste based ones and not a whit of action taken against most of the rioter's masterminds in Term 1. Now this. Media/SM is merely a long list of self-goals which are getting increasingly hard to countenance and bear.


I agree. Warnings to build Information Warfare capabilities were given like in the letter to EAM below but perhaps not taken seriously. One can only hope that issues you raised plus those in the article below are seriously considered.

https://resonantnews.com/2020/02/23/dip ... a-veteran/

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 26 Feb 2020 23:46

ANI

ANI
@ANI
·
5h
NSA Ajit Doval: People have a sense of unity among them, there is no enmity. A few criminals do things like this (spread violence), people are trying to isolate them. Police is here & doing its work. We're here as per the orders of HM & PM. Inshallah yahan par bilkul aman hoga.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 23:46

Karan M wrote:
pankajs wrote:The statement and followup on it, if any, by itself is not wrong. Gas supply, Road, Healthcare, School, Agri schemes, etc for All are right.


The statement is definitely wrong, because it signifies a mindset that bribing folks is the way forward. And that too based on communal lines. Has he uttered something similar for Hindus and accorded funds accordingly? Is either a way forward?

What is wrong is when riot develops under you very nose over a period of months and you are caught napping. More than that even after 6 years, folks are able to brazenly lie and spread fake news and get away!

Media & Social media fake news impunity is the biggest failure of the GOI led by Modi/Shah.


Riots after riots, caste based ones and not a whit of action taken against most of the rioters. Now this. Media/SM is merely a long list of self-goals which no amount of strutting in Texas can erase.

I fully endorse "Saab ka saath, saab vikas and saab ka vishwash" and my list of GOI schemes are should be accessible to everyone equally. This is not bribing.

I support the extra for education of minorities too. I have no confusion on that too.

Riots cannot be prevented in India when one party is hellbent. The current phase too shall pass even when casualties are regrettable and exceeding painful for the families involved. This much is given in a complex country like India.

Therefore, my focus has been on how the GOI allowed hate mongers to flourish for 6 years and counting when we already have a problem with a special class of people who are easily misled and provoked. I would have thought it would have been the first area that should have been addressed given India's complexity of sub-identities often running against each other.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 23:50

syam wrote:people need to take chill pill and think about long term goals. it's feb 2020 for god's sake. Still more than 4 years are there. just think about 2023. there is nothing we can do on sm at this point as they are censoring every 'rw' opinion. better stay at our place(brf or other such forums) and analyze the situation without going emotional. strength of posters like us is not in advising govt. it was never the case.

with that out of the way, i want to say one thing about recent late night show jokers.

rejdeep and other pidis must be feeling quite unemployed with these clowns taking over their jobs. :D can't wait for eventual #BlowToModi.

That is THE problem i.e. when the opinion making space is fully occupied by India/Hindu ill-wishers. We should make maximum effort to get that space back and the GOI has a BIG role to play. Simply staying in our corner is like an ostrich burying its head in stand.

Such space is being weaponized against you. Delhi will recover even after the stumble but such space once vacated will cost India/Hindus a lot. Just check the global narrative.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sicanta » 26 Feb 2020 23:52

pankajs wrote:The statement and followup on it, if any, by itself is not wrong. Gas supply, Road, Healthcare, School, Agri schemes, etc for All are right.

What is wrong is when riot develops under you very nose over a period of months and you are caught napping. More than that even after 6 years, folks are able to brazenly lie and spread fake news and get away!

Media & Social media fake news impunity is the biggest failure of the GOI led by Modi/Shah.


I personally have no issues with 'statement and followup' - if indeed there was any advantage or strategy being realized by employing this. I can think of only two- break the unity among the catchment voters of opposition. Actually do some good for them and make them realize how they have been taken advantage of. Like triple talk bill but in many pics circulating around, women have been shielding the rioters. So I guess no impact of all the laws enacted and money being poured by the Gov.

2nd I can think of, i mentioned earlier, is to burnish credentials with foreign governments and non state entities, investors and even those of us who drink the secular koolaid.But the way things are going on right now and BJP and Gov being effectively made the perpetrator, that too is a failure I guess. As for investors, they will hesitate if not outright pull out in face of this war by thousand cuts. Today in Delhi, tomorrow somewhere else This is the worst for me. Now that companies may realize the pitfalls of putting all the eggs in one basket(china) and access to that basket now severely curtailed, affecting their bottom lines, there was a decent chance of some them shifting to India partially. But certainly not when the national capital can be shut down like this
Last edited by Sicanta on 26 Feb 2020 23:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshhan » 26 Feb 2020 23:54

Karan M wrote:This is the kind of unrealistic expectation that will ensure we have nobody left on our side period. Foolishness is of planning. Its of lack of ability to decipher the complete hatred and Hinduphobia the left and the fiberal crowd has and how they are in bed with the M extremist crowd. The foolishness is in the craven suck up to gori chamdi media which is operating openly in India and not being shown its place via its sponsors. The foolishness of being six years in and still bleating about how ELM or wagehra is biased. Of not being able to ensure any SM platform treats its voters w/o bias.

The idiocy of letting seditious students run riot and hold colleges hostage w/o even being kicked out. The idiocy of combining arts degrees with STEM/Business degrees when aforesaid arts depts are infested with urban naxals and a central minister appears on TV crowing how he did nothing in his tenure to affect the same. He clearly valued his invites to soirees in dilli more than any idealogical affinity to any nationalist cause. The foolishness is of using SM as a perpetual victim, polarization machine which is now eliciting open contempt as to "if these idiots can't protect their own party workers how will they protect us" type of posts instead of anger and sympathy. That strategy is not even effective as can be seen in Delhi and many states where people voted against the BJP in state elections. The foolishness is in not being able to rebut openly fake news about mob lynching, even bringing in basic facts about cattle rustling or running a national awareness campaign about it.

Their inability to hire a single PR agency to run campaigns against their opponents slick propaganda while rolling in electoral bonds to the tunes of hundreds of crores. All the while everyone engages in self-congratulatory posts about 4D Chunkian earth-e-shaster tactics. All this flows back to Modi. His desire to out Gandhi Gandhi has not worked. The BJP is in a weird mix of nationalism and diffidence which neither its supporters nor opponents respect.

Their inability to wield any state power against corrupt opponents, instead giving them awards and then those opponents give two hoots for the awards and run the BJP out of power. The foolishness of constantly telling the people who voted for the BJP to do more via ham-handed optics at budget time and coming up with babucracy tax measures etc and then messaging it in such a bad manner that it led to a 1000 memes overnight. The FM or the PM having no clue of how to structure any positive measures together for good PR or effect but having them lost in a 100000 words to the minute news-cycle which they have no clue on how to manage. I mean these are basics. Are you telling me the whole advertising or PR industry does not have one nationalist in it, one marketing savvy dude or forget that, even a mercenary who could get their ship in shape?

This apart from the complete mess MSME still finds itself in. Anecdotal accounts aplenty of the chaos that was and is the GST process for ages, the amount of grief SMEs faced due to the credit crunch. Yes, crisis after crisis, but in every incident, there is one common streak. A PM who seems to have literally nobody to lean on and NITI Aayog seem to be toothless tigers still trying to force GOI to hearken to them. A key guy was on record that bureaucrats were still sabotaging attempts to buy local using all sorts of tricks. So 6 years in, the bureaucracy is still not working in full synch with the PM or the party in power? Who is to blame for that? The babus or the party that is in power? Now, they are planning lateral hires? In corporates, this sort of stuff takes a few months to implement. Even by GOI's standards, six years? People would literally volunteer to help this GOI given their emotional attachment. What has the GOI done in return to harness any of that expertise.

Many key reformist measures remain stalled. This Modi Modi Modi stuff has got old. By now he should have had a dozen teams running his affairs for him. But everything still seems to require his personal intervention. From last minute tax cuts for corporates, to haphazard claims around "we will replace China in manufacturing" sort of policy initiatives which have not been implemented or have no timeframe for the same either. The list of stuff stuck is endless.

The foolishness is not in terms of speaking x, y, z which even if they didn't would still be misreported because the media is almost completely anti GOI and this GOI doesn't have the balls to grab its opponents by the same.

Irrespective of what this GOI does, they will be hated, their voters and the nation itself targeted. Why don't they wake up and understand that, and plan accordingly? Strength is respected, decisiveness is as well, provided there is a plan in place to deal with your opponents. They cant seem to even hire a few lobbyists abroad.


Karan. As I have always said, put these points on twitter and tag Namo himself. At the end of day he is just an individual and without a very strong team backing him up, he will not achieve much. His intent is good but he needs to put capable and courageous people in right positions and not just yes men. Like most of the other politicians he has a flaw that he is insecure in appointing men with conviction and courage as they can become his future rivals. But then if he has to accomplish something he has to have a team or multiple teams.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 26 Feb 2020 23:57

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1232562700913217536
ANI @ANI

#WATCH Delhi Police makes an announcement in Seelampur area, "Ek mahine ke liye Section 144 laga di gai hai, yahan koi bhi vyakti nazar na aaye. Abhi tumhe pyar se bataya jaa raha hai, phir sakhti se bataya jayega. Dukane bandh kardo yahan" #DelhiViolence

144 for a month
make sure no one appears here {guess more than 4 at a time}
letting you know with love { :rotfl: }
otherwise will let you know forcefully
close the shops
Last edited by pankajs on 26 Feb 2020 23:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Vidur » 26 Feb 2020 23:57

*
Last edited by Vidur on 27 Feb 2020 00:02, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sanju » 26 Feb 2020 23:58

MadhuPurnima Kishwar

MadhuPurnima Kishwar
@madhukishwar
It's worrisome that many @BJP4India
supporters are beginning to attack @AmitShah
for the bawaal in Delhi. Let's be very clear, his hands are tied by many strings. But whatever his limitations, we won't get another HM as committed to India & Bharatiyata, as Amit bhai. @PMOIndia


Can anyone throw some light on what Kishwarji is alluding to?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 27 Feb 2020 00:01

pankajs wrote:
syam wrote:people need to take chill pill and think about long term goals. it's feb 2020 for god's sake. Still more than 4 years are there. just think about 2023. there is nothing we can do on sm at this point as they are censoring every 'rw' opinion. better stay at our place(brf or other such forums) and analyze the situation without going emotional. strength of posters like us is not in advising govt. it was never the case.

with that out of the way, i want to say one thing about recent late night show jokers.

rejdeep and other pidis must be feeling quite unemployed with these clowns taking over their jobs. :D can't wait for eventual #BlowToModi.

That is THE problem i.e. when the opinion making space is fully occupied by India/Hindu ill-wishers. We should make maximum effort to get that space back and the GOI has a BIG role to play. Simply staying in our corner is like an ostrich burying its head in stand.

Such space is being weaponized against you. Delhi will recover even after the stumble but such space once vacated will cost India/Hindus a lot. Just check the global narrative.


++1 Pankajsji.

The sheer volume of fake news being thrown out by BIF is mind boggling. And the government is unable to turn the tide. If you cede centre stage ti the enemy then you lose. For three past few days I an fighting an increasingly losing and lonely battle to counter this. But am overwhelmed. At one point me, and many lime me are just going to fall silent. Yes my vote is still guaranteed but the majority who ( for better or worse) are generally silent and echo what is the dominant theme in media are going to be affected. I foresee 2024 as a redux of thr same besmirching campaign of 2004. The battle is now.

Acknowledge that BIF aare going ti be increasingly vitriolic as they feel threatened. But we need to push them back. If they can ensure status quo now then they have win in long run on demographics. Somehow not getting the feeling that we are up to the challenge.

Tired today. Been a long day. Rise and fight again tomorrow.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sicanta » 27 Feb 2020 00:03

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1232562700913217536
ANI @ANI

#WATCH Delhi Police makes an announcement in Seelampur area, "Ek mahine ke liye Section 144 laga di gai hai, yahan koi bhi vyakti nazar na aaye. Abhi tumhe pyar se bataya jaa raha hai, phir sakhti se bataya jayega. Dukane bandh kardo yahan" #DelhiViolence

144 for a month
make sure no one appears here {guess more than 4 at a time}
letting you know with love { :rotfl: }
otherwise will let you know forcefully
close the shops


Actually good. Make the cost paymentfor rioting a long drawn out process. Dont let them go back to their normal life and earn a living easily.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby RKumar » 27 Feb 2020 00:07

It was expected that there will be some incidents to show India in the bad light. But happened in Delhi was beyond expectations and peacefuls made a fool of themselves. They might get away with it because local government is sleeping with them. On the other hand Delhi is reaping what they have sowed. They completely earned it. Police can not take strict actions as immediately there will be a news of police beating peaceful protesters with sticks. It is okay if protesters point gun and shot at the police. News media is doing really bad job in the name of press freedom and spinning stories against the national interests. I hope bdutt, takes American citizenship and leave India for good.


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