arvin wrote:Its a feb 2020 article. Did not see it posted here.
https://www.flightglobal.com/singapore- ... 97.articleBoeing believes there is a global market for 2,600 T-7s, both as trainers and light-attack or aggressor aircraft.
“Some statistics say one in four and advanced fighters in the world’s air forces today are being used for training missions,” says Thomas Breckenridge, vice-president of international sales in Boeing’s strike, surveillance and mobility business unit.
Export of Tejas will be the test case for all the big defence reforms undertaken last week. We have a mature product and how much will we be able to bag out of 2600.
Once the IAF fields a couple of hundred LCA's then it will be a lot easier to market it because there is less of a historic precedent when it comes to the IAF supporting an indigenous program over its multi-decade life. Therefore interested buyers would take a cautious approach which will ease as the aircraft is inducted in large numbers. But all that is for the future. Right now, HAL's capacity and investment is just adequate to meet IAF demand so the question of having surplus production capacity that can be marketed does not arise. Once they have the capacity or a serious enough buyer to build it then that situation will change. Production process and supply chain needs to be built around a maximum sustained production level so that you can ramp up within a reasonable time-frame and cost. Usually you operate at 70-80% of that level. Lockheed's current F-35 production max capacity is 190 aircraft a year (30 aircraft more than the current projected FRP volumes) so they'll be able to quickly ramp up production by 20-30 aircraft a year over their currently prodjected FRP volumes if there is a commercial sale or increased FMS demand. Above that 190 will be very expensive. Similarly, HAL needs to first have adequate capacity to meet IAF demands over the next decade and then see what it would cost to efficiently increase that affordably based on export success. Otherwise this will always be a chicken and egg problem.