Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9295
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^
(shouldn't it be 2-3 more days before we cross 400 million for people with at least one dose?)
Reminds me of some parents who, when their daughter get 99 (out of 100) marks in an exam ask " what happened to the 1 point??"
("2-3" more days will eventually come! :) )

----
On a more serious note:

The Sutra model (its recent projection about "third wave" which I posted about a month ago) - parameters seem quite stable and the projection is IMO quite reliable. Unless we get some new strain which is immunity escape and more infectious than Delta - there will just a ripple ... about 50 thousand/day or so of the peak.
Even if vaccinations do not go fast *and* say "contact parameter" (transmissivity of new variant increases or people go wild et) increase slightly -- we are still okay - still about 50 thousand/day or so at the peak.
Some states (like Kerala) may/will see some local peaks but overall we would be okay - health infrastructure will not be strained compared to earlier waves.

If we get a, say 25% more transmissive variant then delta - and vaccines etc are effective at most conservative values (say 50% only)..*even* than the peak will be as bad as first wave (about 100K/day of reported cases)..
---
Looking back at the entire year - the model has been incredibly accurate - except for Delta (no model can predict if/when there would be a bad variant) - and in March/April time of phase transition.

.
saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4231
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Manish_P wrote:Need to factor in the requirement of repeat vaccinations on say a yearly basis.. or might need vaccination twice a year to prevent severe illness..

Pfizer's CEO says Covid vaccine effectiveness drops to 84% after six months
The efficacy of Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine steadily declines to about 84% about six months after a second dose, according to CEO Albert Bourla.

Data from Israel shows the waning immunity also erodes protection from severe illness.
I took Moderna (they claim efficacy of 93% after 6 months), my wife Pfizer.
Two weeks ago we attended a party (outdoors, about 60 all 'vaccinated' and wearing masks most of the time). But last Saturday we had 'symptoms' runny nose, tiredness (probably imagined) which we would have ignored in normal times. So we went for the free Covid19 test. Came out negative. Now I feel guilty for wasting resources.
Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5497
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

Don't be, Saip ji. Don't ever feel guilty.

Situation is such that it is better to take Preventive tests, at the earliest, else the risk is that if you are a carrier then not only you will suffer but you might well end up infecting others...
Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5497
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

Amber G. wrote: ---
Looking back at the entire year - the model has been incredibly accurate - except for Delta (no model can predict if/when there would be a bad variant) - and in March/April time of phase transition.

.
Sir. A question - Has the model factored in the decrease in vaccine efficacy over time. If not then how much would the approx variation in numbers be - 5 %, 10 %...
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8851
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

50,62,18,296 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1743685 07 AUG 2021 8:09PM
50,03,48,866 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1743382 06 AUG 2021 8:19PM

Total for Saturday 50,03,48,866

Cumulative

1st dose 39,38,95,801
2nd dose 11,23,22,495
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3867
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

vijayk wrote:50,62,18,296 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1743685 07 AUG 2021 8:09PM
50,03,48,866 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1743382 06 AUG 2021 8:19PM

Total for Saturday 50,03,48,866

Cumulative

1st dose 39,38,95,801
2nd dose 11,23,22,495
vijayk:

Your total for Saturday is incorrect.

Difference between 7pm numbers for Friday and Saturday you posted above = 58,69,430 doses
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9295
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Manish_P wrote:
Amber G. wrote: ---
Looking back at the entire year - the model has been incredibly accurate - except for Delta (no model can predict if/when there would be a bad variant) - and in March/April time of phase transition.

.
Sir. A question - Has the model factored in the decrease in vaccine efficacy over time. If not then how much would the approx variation in numbers be - 5 %, 10 %...
Short answer, Yes.

(We (mathematicians) did math - we got advice from top medical profession about the virus/vaccines etc)

The model assumed two scenerios: (I used using these factors to confirm)
(Optimistic side): Loss of about 20% *in/after* 3 months - (Vaccines remaining 60% effective for)
(Pessimistic side): Vaccines remaining about 50% effective - fully vaccinated etc...

It also *assumed* loss of natural immunity ( 40% for those who got before the delta and 20% for those with delta-strain after about 3-4 months, rest remains immune).

This was done in a very conservative side - The Indian data - the loss of immunity - is closer to 10% (In 3 months) - Other studies in other nations with delta the scientific papers gives this around 20%..

ONLY thing we do not know (and I think no one can predict) is if there is new strain - how bad it would be. For that, if we can stop replicating in the world, say for next 6 months the chances of mutation will be gone. But for that we would need vaccine for the whole world which is rather difficult at present.
Just my thoughts.
Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5497
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

^ Understood your points. Thanks.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8851
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 57014.html
Zydus Cadila's Covid-19 vaccine approval likely in next few days: Report
On July 1, the company had sought emergency use approval of ZyCoV-D, its DNA vaccine against Covid-19 for those aged 12 years and above, from the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI). It had presented interim results from Phase-III clinical trials in over 28,000 volunteers. The study is said to have demonstrated safety and efficacy in the interim data.
How come Zydus did not get the approval till now? Are they trying to avoid COvaxin kind of rumors by rNDTV and CON party?

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-o ... 2021-07-20
zydus Cadila has applied for Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) for its Covid-19 vaccine, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya told Rajya Sabha on Tuesday. He also said that Hyderabad-based Biological E will enter the market with 7.5 crore doses (each month) of its Covid-19 vaccine by September-October.

"Once it [Zydus Cadila vaccine] is granted approval by DCGA, India will be the first country in the world whose scientists will have developed a DNA vaccine," said Mandaviya. He added that Phase-3 clinical trials of the Zydus Cadila jab are complete.

In his first speech in the Rajya Sabha as Union Health Minister, Mansukh Mandaviya also said that there is hope that vaccinations for children will begin soon. Clinical trials for Zydus Cadila's and Bharat Biotech's jabs for kids are already underway, he added
He also told Parliament that it would be incorrect to assume that the third wave of Covid-19 infections will impact children more than other age groups. Referring to preparedness, he said that 316 of 1,573 proposed oxygen plants have been commissioned and the rest will begin operations by August-end.
I hope to see vaccine options for 12-18 years.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10040
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

Amber G. wrote: The model assumed two scenerios: (I used using these factors to confirm)
(Optimistic side): Loss of about 20% *in/after* 3 months - (Vaccines remaining 60% effective for)
(Pessimistic side): Vaccines remaining about 50% effective - fully vaccinated etc...

It also *assumed* loss of natural immunity ( 40% for those who got before the delta and 20% for those with delta-strain after about 3-4 months, rest remains immune).

This was done in a very conservative side - The Indian data - the loss of immunity - is closer to 10% (In 3 months) - Other studies in other nations with delta the scientific papers gives this around 20%..

ONLY thing we do not know (and I think no one can predict) is if there is new strain - how bad it would be. For that, if we can stop replicating in the world, say for next 6 months the chances of mutation will be gone. But for that we would need vaccine for the whole world which is rather difficult at present.
Just my thoughts.
Aside from the SUTRA model, isn't there another model done by IIT-Kanpur which is more pessimistic? The one thing mathematical models can't factor in is human behavior. Due to economic conditions people may be in close proximity in large groups without masks.

There is also concern of lambda and other variants which may be vaccine resistant.
Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9295
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Another "IIT Kanpur Model" which got a quite a bit of publicity is perhaps this I posted about here in brf:
(viewtopic.php?p=2503626#p2503626 - This is NOT SUTRA model and Prof. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma are *not* from SUTRA team. They (and) IIT Kanpur actually made that very clear in a few press briefs later to remove some confusion.

Yes, there have been this, and many other models, which have been more pessimistic.

(These calculations were done using some other models - main issue, as I posted then, was their model did *not* include any effect due to vaccinations. And simply can not be ignored. )

SUTRA Model is in a class by itself, especially for understanding Covid type pandemic, yyas this is the only model which get's gets pretty reliable value of epsilon (ratio of undetected to the tested positive) instead of guessing/estimating the behavior of the virus.

By September the pool of susceptible people would be quite manageable - between vaccines and and high number people with acquired natural immunity we will be reaching herd immunity level.

- The Sutra team is keeping eye on variants and data from the world. Data from Peru about Lambda variant, does *not* seem to be more transmissive than Delta. By some studies, it is bit more vaccine resistance etc but this alone at present is *not* a significant factor. But as I said, there is close watch - And other factors like bans of international flights etc, if need be, ought to be considered.
TKiran
BRFite
Posts: 997
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 00:22

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by TKiran »

^^^^Amber G ma'am,

I am just curious can we apply the SUTRA model to China and get the value of epsilon rho etc based on the official data released by China and walk back and see how much vulnerable China could be for the Delta virus and estimate future devastation in China assuming that their official data is correct, in fact it should be still giving insights into how they controlled the pandemic so effectively... any chance????
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9295
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile: Reports are that http://Covid19india.org will stop it's operations from October 31.

I regularly used Covid19india dot org site, especially when I was looking for data from India,. So I will miss it.
Want to give them a big thanks. I know I am not alone - many people I know, including some of top academicians used that resource and it's API etc.

Here is what they said in: Covid19_org_blog: When the curtains come down


After keeping all of you updated with Covid19 data for the last 16 months, we will be stopping our operations from 31st October, 2021.

Why are we doing this? What will happen next?
[See This blog above]
(I have written to them, and I hope they continue this excellent work for a little while more -- may be some other volunteers/institute may provide enough resources).
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9295
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

TKiran wrote:^
I am just curious can we apply the SUTRA model to China and get the value of epsilon rho etc based on the official data released by China and walk back and see how much vulnerable China could be for the Delta virus and estimate future devastation in China assuming that their official data is correct, in fact it should be still giving insights into how they controlled the pandemic so effectively... any chance????
Idea, obviously is quite great. As the model has seen quite a bit of visibility, I am sure many others will be looking at such things and science and mankind will benefit when such things are analyzed and understood.

One thing I have been trying to do is to make a table of these 5-6 parameters at different "phases" for various countries over the last year. ( As they have included many countries data for verification of the modeling parameters - lot of this has been published or is available but it will be good to have it at one place in a tabular form). Unfortunately I have not seen China's in material I have seen. (Mostly Indian Individual states , Our neighbors like Bangladesh, UK, Europe, US etc where data is freely available and has some reliability).
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10040
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

It would be nice if some publication like MIT Technology Review or American Scientist would showcase the SUTRA prediction model.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10040
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

That's fantastic news! I may not take a booster shot in the US, and go to India when BB Covaxin is more readily available at end of this year or early next year.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9295
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

513,914,567 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1744190 [09 AUG 2021 7PM Monday]
508,664,759 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1743685 [09 AUG 2021 7AM Monday]
506,218,296 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1743685 [07 AUG 2021 7PM Saturday]

Total for 36 hours ending 7AM Monday 09 August: 2,446,463 doses
Total for 12 hours ending 7PM Monday 09 August: 5,249,808 doses
Total for 48 hours ending 7pm Monday 09 August: 7,696,271 doses

Total for 7 days ending 7 PM = 36,113,980. (Averaging 5.2 Million /day))

Cumulative first dose = 399,666,293
Cumulative second dose = 114,248,274
Cumulative Total = 513,914,567

BTW: Cowin Dashboard is now showing 400,150,406 for first dose - (That makes my statement posted a few days ago correct ( and ahead of the curve) about more than 400+ Millions :) )
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Shocking, even AmberG has gotten into PIB data tracking :)

By the way I have read that covid19india.org site is going down on Oct 31 . It is a volunteer run effort and they no longer can afford to spend time on doing that. A lot of efforts are being made to have government or private entities take over and keep it running. From what I recall, the Sutra website raw data depends on them.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9295
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ :) A little less shocking is that most of my posts - even the technical ones - gets less trolled or "poofed" by admins..:).
Today's 7PM Numbers: 518,517,148
Cumulative first dose = 403,106,020
Cumulative second dose = 115,411,128
Cumulative Total = 518,517,148
Last Delta = 4,602,581

-- About
By the way I have read that covid19india.org site is going down on Oct 31
Yes, I posted about just a few posts above. The site and API will continue, but, refreshing with latest data is what they announced to be stopped. Yes, many people, including Sutra team, especially for India's data, used the data- in fact prof Agrawal and Prof Vidyasagar acknowledged it publicly. It was a great service and hope the volunteers get some break while the site transition to more formal site - and hope there is official and financial support to continue this service.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

You can rest assured all mod actions against anyone are earned by mod consensus even if you imagine otherwise, and this isn't the place to complain about it either :)

I remember that Prof Agrawal and Prof Vidyasagar thanked the covid19india team. I have had some direct correspondence with them over Twitter DMs when they messaged me with questions or comments in the past.
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3867
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Govt approves Bharat Biotech's Ankleshwar plant to produce Covaxin: Mandaviya
Union minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Tuesday said the government has given approval to Bharat Biotech's Ankleshwar-based manufacturing plant to produce COVID-19 vaccine Covaxin. "Govt of India approves vaccine manufacturing facility for production of @BharatBiotech's #Covaxin in Ankleshwar, Gujarat,"

The approval would help increase availability of COVID-19 vaccines in the country, he added.

In May this year, Bharat Biotech had announced that it plans to produce an additional 200 million doses of Covaxin at its subsidiary's Ankleshwar-based facility.

The Hyderabad-based firm had noted that it would utilise the manufacturing plant of its wholly-owned unit - Chiron Behring, to add another 200 million doses of Covaxin.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32436
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

Has raha hoon kyunki ro bhi nahi sakta


via whatsapp
When India was reeling under the Delta variant, our government, our healthcare system, our population, everyone was responsible for it. (except, you know who)

Now that the west is grappling with the Delta variant, it is the variant that is responsible for it.

Liberal privileges of controlling the international media.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32436
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

COWIN


Send a @WhatsApp message “download certificate” to 90131 51515, receive OTP & get your vaccination certificate back by @WhatsApp.
DavidD
BRFite
Posts: 1048
Joined: 23 Jun 2010 04:08

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by DavidD »

saip wrote:
Manish_P wrote:Need to factor in the requirement of repeat vaccinations on say a yearly basis.. or might need vaccination twice a year to prevent severe illness..

Pfizer's CEO says Covid vaccine effectiveness drops to 84% after six months
I took Moderna (they claim efficacy of 93% after 6 months), my wife Pfizer.
Two weeks ago we attended a party (outdoors, about 60 all 'vaccinated' and wearing masks most of the time). But last Saturday we had 'symptoms' runny nose, tiredness (probably imagined) which we would have ignored in normal times. So we went for the free Covid19 test. Came out negative. Now I feel guilty for wasting resources.
Don't feel bad, the vaccinated can both catch it and spread it quite easily (especially the spreading, once caught), so it's good to be vigilant even if you're vaccinated. You're very unlikely to develop severe symptoms, the most I've seen is usually a short admission in the hospital. I've only seen one severe case but she was on chemotherapy and had zero immune system. The common symptoms in the vaccinated is actually quite similar to a cold, and somewhat surprisingly includes runny nose, which is typically not a symptom of at least initial variants of COVID.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32436
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

chetak wrote:COWIN


Send a @WhatsApp message “download certificate” to 9013151515, receive OTP & get your vaccination certificate back by @WhatsApp.
This worked like a charm

just downloaded 2 certificates.

Very quick, no hassles, and completely pain free.
anmol
BRFite
Posts: 1922
Joined: 05 May 2009 17:39

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by anmol »

Image
.
.
.
Image
.
.
.
Image


According to this study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21261707v1
arvin
BRFite
Posts: 673
Joined: 17 Aug 2016 21:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arvin »

chetak wrote:
chetak wrote:COWIN


Send a @WhatsApp message “download certificate” to 9013151515, receive OTP & get your vaccination certificate back by @WhatsApp.
This worked like a charm

just downloaded 2 certificates.

Very quick, no hassles, and completely pain free.
Thanks for posting. It was super easy.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32436
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

the fine hand of the pfizer, moderna, j&j conglomerates' corporate interests combined with the concerns of ameriki deep state is responsible for this and the FDA is just a tool in their arsenal
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8851
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

52,32,53,450 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1744922. 11 AUG 2021 7:54PM

51,85,17,148. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1744578 10 AUG 2021 8:34PM

Total 47,36,302
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8851
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

52,89,27,844 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1745267 12 AUG 2021 7:54PM

52,32,53,450 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1744922. 11 AUG 2021 7:54PM


Total for Thursday - 56,74,394
Last edited by vijayk on 13 Aug 2021 01:38, edited 1 time in total.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10040
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

That’s Thursday 12/8/2021 by Indian nomenclature. D/M/Y :)
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3867
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Bharat Biotech's Covaxin ready for dispatch at new plant
Covaxin batches at Bharat Biotech’s Ankleshwar facility are expected to be available for the national pool from next month onwards for both public and private sector consumption, Suchitra Ella, joint MD of Bharat Biotech said at CII.

The doses are ready to be dispatched to the Central Drugs Laboratory in Kasauli for quality and sterility inspection this month.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8851
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/co ... 861266.ece
Zydus completes ‘pragmatic trials’ for second vax
Zydus has developed a live, attenuated recombinant measles virus-vectored vaccine, ZyCoV-MV, which is believed to provide long-term immunity from the infection. The development is seen as significant in the backdrop of the limited-period immunity provided by most vaccines that are currently available.
The recombinant measles virus (rMV), produced by reverse genetics, will express codon-optimised proteins of the novel Coronavirus and induce long-term specific neutralising antibodies. This is believed to create an engine in the body to provide continuous immunity against Covid-19.
This is different from the company’s DNA vaccine, in which the plasmid DNA is introduced into the host cells.
TKiran
BRFite
Posts: 997
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 00:22

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by TKiran »

Amber G. wrote:
TKiran wrote:^
I am just curious can we apply the SUTRA model to China and get the value of epsilon rho etc based on the official data released by China and walk back and see how much vulnerable China could be for the Delta virus and estimate future devastation in China assuming that their official data is correct, in fact it should be still giving insights into how they controlled the pandemic so effectively... any chance????
Idea, obviously is quite great. As the model has seen quite a bit of visibility, I am sure many others will be looking at such things and science and mankind will benefit when such things are analyzed and understood.

One thing I have been trying to do is to make a table of these 5-6 parameters at different "phases" for various countries over the last year. ( As they have included many countries data for verification of the modeling parameters - lot of this has been published or is available but it will be good to have it at one place in a tabular form). Unfortunately I have not seen China's in material I have seen. (Mostly Indian Individual states , Our neighbors like Bangladesh, UK, Europe, US etc where data is freely available and has some reliability).
Amber G ma'am, there are Twitter buzzes which are saying the same thing as i predicted.

Chinese followed the same model as KERALA model. (Kerala model is the same as you analyzed, ie 97% of Keralites/hans were not exposed to the virus because of strict lockdowns. But are vulnerable to DELTA virus as the herd immunity was not achieved and are getting exposed now)

Only lucky thing is that the Hans are vaccinated to a large extent so the number of deaths may not be as devastating as the India's second wave, but still there will be huge death toll atleast 1,00,000 before they control this virus. Of course they will claim only 10,000 deaths in this second wave in China.

Now I have also postulated an empirical formula to figure out the number of deaths in China.

Total no. Of deaths = 10 × official figure.

So in the first wave, no. Of deaths in Wuhan = 10 × 3000 = 30,000.

Still it's phenomenal achievement compared to india's 1.5 lac deaths during first wave.
TKiran
BRFite
Posts: 997
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 00:22

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by TKiran »

Amber G. wrote:
TKiran wrote:^
I am just curious can we apply the SUTRA model to China and get the value of epsilon rho etc based on the official data released by China and walk back and see how much vulnerable China could be for the Delta virus and estimate future devastation in China assuming that their official data is correct, in fact it should be still giving insights into how they controlled the pandemic so effectively... any chance????
Idea, obviously is quite great. As the model has seen quite a bit of visibility, I am sure many others will be looking at such things and science and mankind will benefit when such things are analyzed and understood.

One thing I have been trying to do is to make a table of these 5-6 parameters at different "phases" for various countries over the last year. ( As they have included many countries data for verification of the modeling parameters - lot of this has been published or is available but it will be good to have it at one place in a tabular form). Unfortunately I have not seen China's in material I have seen. (Mostly Indian Individual states , Our neighbors like Bangladesh, UK, Europe, US etc where data is freely available and has some reliability).
Amber G ma'am, there are Twitter buzzes which are saying the same thing as i predicted.

Chinese followed the same model as KERALA model. (Kerala model is the same as you analyzed, ie 97% of Keralites/hans were not exposed to the virus because of strict lockdowns. But are vulnerable to DELTA virus as the herd immunity was not achieved and are getting exposed now)

Only lucky thing is that the Hans are vaccinated to a large extent so the number of deaths may not be as devastating as the India's second wave, but still there will be huge death toll atleast 1,00,000 before they control this virus. Of course they will claim only 10,000 deaths in this second wave in China.

Now I have also postulated an empirical formula to figure out the number of deaths in China.

Total no. Of deaths = 10 × official figure.

So in the first wave, no. Of deaths in Wuhan = 10 × 3000 = 30,000.

Still it's phenomenal achievement compared to india's 1.5 lac deaths during first wave.
disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 8264
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

TKiran'ji, Sinovac does not even work and if the lab leak theory is true, then China knew about the virus a great deal much before others. Also once the CCP says "mask" and "lockdown", the population will not be like the Indians making a beeline to BevCo or TASMAC shops.

And all CCP models and numbers are doubtful.
disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 8264
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

I did not know where to post this, since this is interview with SII, this is a good thread. Note that all articles must be followed by the chant 'MudiMustRezine'

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 70692.html
‘Wasn't supposed to say’: Serum chief praises PM Modi, says no ‘maska polish’
The drug controller responds even after office hours, Cyrus Poonawalla said praising PM Modi's reforms that ended licenceraj. Once he had to fall at the feet of the bureaucrats, the chairman of the world's largest vaccine maker said.
...
"I was not supposed to say this," he said and added, "Transport and communication were also great problems and challenges that were faced by my staff and fellow directors...It was a long journey and a very painful one, which has now become very rewarding. I had to fall at the feet of bureaucrats and drug controllers, etc, to get permission. But I must stress that difficulties, red tape are much reduced now under the Modi government."
Once I had to fall at the feet of a tax official. Made me spineless for couple of decades. So I totally understand Mr. Poonawalla's angst.

https://zeenews.india.com/india/red-tap ... 84571.html
Fifty years ago, the industry had to face hardships in getting basic facilities like power, water, in getting permissions from bureaucrats. It had to face harassment from bureaucrats...I was not supposed to say this," he said.
Any word contrary to a baboo will result in tremendous loss. CONgoon culture enabled it. CONgoon culture fostered and propogated it. End result of this culture was that millions died, millions died in penury and billions of hopes were murdered. Of course the lootyens mediapimps will only scream 'fascist modi' since they are losing their control over narrative and all the accoutrements that flow from it.

And here is a video in detail



So yes. MudiWhoMustRezine got us the vaccine and for saying that on twitter, Lootyens will call me andh-bhakt.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

An official PIB statement, not a press article:
First Nasal Vaccine Developed by Bharat Biotech supported by DBT-BIRAC gets nod of regulator for Phase 2 Trial
Bharat Biotech's intranasal vaccine is the first nasal vaccine that has received the regulatory approval for Phase 2 trials. This is the first of its kind COVID-19 jab to undergo human clinical trials in India. BBV154 is an intranasal replication-deficient chimpanzee adenovirus SARS-CoV-2 vectored vaccine. BBIL has in-licensed technology from Washington University in St Louis, USA.

Phase 1 Clinical trial has been completed in age groups ranging ≥18 to ≤60 years. The Company reports that the doses of the vaccine administered to healthy volunteers in the Phase I clinical trial, has been well tolerated. No serious adverse events reported. Previously, the vaccine was found to be safe, immunogenic and well tolerated in the pre-clinical toxicity studies. The vaccine was able to elicit high level of neutralizing antibodies in animal studies.

The regulatory approval has been received for conducting “A Phase 2 randomized, multi-centric, Clinical Trial of Heterologous Prime-Boost Combination of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of BBV152 (COVAXIN®) with BBV154 (Adenoviral Intranasal COVID-19 vaccine) in Healthy Volunteers.”
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3867
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

54,16,07,338 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1745919 14 AUG 2021 8:33PM
53,53,99,783 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1745604 13 AUG 2021 8:51PM

Total for Saturday - 62,07,555 doses

Sunday and Monday are both hoildays. So, the numbers will be much lower for these days.
Last edited by Kakkaji on 15 Aug 2021 02:08, edited 1 time in total.
Post Reply