Bharat Rakshak

Yes, on track for another week of >35 million doses if we do around 5 million on Saturday. Already 68 million doses for the month to date, more than all of May.

Shouldn't the proportion of 2nd dose start to increase by now? It has stayed pretty stable at around 1 in 4, but I would have expected it to start rising by now. Even on days when there is a jump in vaccinations, it is primarily from 1st doses.

Raja wrote:Shouldn't the proportion of 2nd dose start to increase by now? It has stayed pretty stable at around 1 in 4, but I would have expected it to start rising by now. Even on days when there is a jump in vaccinations, it is primarily from 1st doses.

The window for 2nd dose is 28-84 days, as per ICMR for good immune response. From what I understand COVAXIN is closer to 28 days. Vaccine supply increased considerably in July and is improving, we should see 2nd dose rate-of-increase in the next month.

If you look between 1 Aug and 13 Aug, you will see that:
1. Cumulative first doses increased by 13.3%.
2. Cumulative second doses increased by 14.5%.

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/Cummulativ ... st2021.pdf
https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/Cummulativ ... st2021.pdf

From: https://www.cell.com/med/fulltext/S2666 ... 1)00289-0#
Prior Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR) or Tetanus-Diptheria-Pertussis (Tdap) vaccination induces a T-cell response that overlaps with #SARSCoV2 and appears to offer some (~20-30%) protection from severe Covid-19..

•
T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2, MMR and Tdap vaccine proteins are highly correlated.
•
SARS-CoV-2, MMR and Tdap antigen-experienced T cells share identical TCRs.
•
T cells with shared TCRs have features of TEMRA, a memory anti-viral T cell subset.
•
Prior MMR or Tdap vaccination correlates with reduced COVID-19 disease severity.

Maharashtra Health Department seems to have woken up ............

9,36,000 people vaccinated till 7pm in the state today, the highest number of vaccinations in a single day. Earlier on July 3, the state had set a record by vaccinating 8,11,000 people in a day: Maharashtra Health Department

via@ANI 8:40 pm · 14 Aug 2021·

54,16,07,338 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1745919 14 AUG 2021 8:33PM
53,53,99,783 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1745604 13 AUG 2021 8:51PM

Total for Saturday - 62,07,555 doses

Sunday and Monday are both hoildays. So, the numbers will be much lower for these days.

Raja wrote:Shouldn't the proportion of 2nd dose start to increase by now? It has stayed pretty stable at around 1 in 4, but I would have expected it to start rising by now. Even on days when there is a jump in vaccinations, it is primarily from 1st doses.

The ratio should increase in August and then may be become around 1:1 later .. (per model).

SUTRA Model's vaccine assumption are for August 180 M (70M First+ 110 Second dose), and 270 Millions (160 First Dose, 110 Second Dose) for rest three months.. But it really does not matter that much .. even lower values like 200 Million for last three months essentially gives the same graph.
The vaccine hesitancy - something India did NOT have before - is a fear as many bad people are investing lot of time to do propaganda against vaccines. I think it is *very* important to start a positive campaign.. may be our movie stars or sport stars can join..
Model is hoping that about 700 Million adults gets fully protected (1400 Million shots) by end of this year or sooner. ..More will be better. .. (700 Million is about 50% of total population but considering the current sero positivity - this might be enough to reach the herd immunity level).. Anything we can do (problem is less technical and more of convincing people to take vaccines) to increase this figure will be *very* helpful.

Value of epsilon seems to remain constant - many sero survey has confirmed it -- latest one done among children which is giving around the same value giving confidence in the model.
(This gives us a *very* reliable estimation of undetected people which at present is around 1:33).

Serious concern is people do not start acting crazy (non-covid behaviour)..as long as they do not get as bad as Mumbai in February/March we are not going to see a big third wave .. If they can keep contact factor .4 or better, after the ease of opening up.... It may be very difficult to make people behave as they are getting tired but again anything we can do it lower it (like India did it last year).. will be also be *very* helpful.

Amberji, given that its only bit more than 35M a week, isnt 180M optimistic? Also, the 270M number as well. The positive thing is we have >400M as the first dose and that number is steadily rising. So we can expect these to come back for the second as well, so really vaccine hesitancy for these is not there.

Even with these numbers we should see a significant drop in hospitalisation even if a new wave develops. Assumption of course is new variant with vaccine break through does not emerge.

In the meanwhile we have this

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ch ... ar-AANl0Y0

The Chinese has undue influence over WHO and in a bid to save their face made this pandemic worse.

Trump was no doubt incompetent but he was 100% right about WHO being a Chinese puppet.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/where- ... mid-august
Lot of data inside.



Of course suraj here mentioned

1)As of midnight on 14 August, 422 million Indians had been vaccinated with at least one dose. That represents over a third of the total population, and close to half of all adults.

2) Vaccine production is rising consistently, and distribution is settling into a steadier rhythm. In July 2021, the production target was 120 million doses, against which, India administered 133 million doses. In August, the monthly production target is 150 million does. Against this, the tally in the first 14 days has already crossed the halfway mark, with 17 days left to go. In all probability, that means we would overshoot 150 million by a fair bit before the month ends.

3) In conclusion, the data shows that the largest vaccination drive on the planet is what is permitting India to lift lockdown restrictions, so that the economy may grow once more, while simultaneously providing protection from clusters, which continue to fester in some states due to administrative inefficiency. Also, the fact that over 99 per cent of the vaccines we receive are manufactured in India, provides a reassuring, homespun feel to this stupendous effort.

Most importantly, though, the principal finding of this mid-month review is that all of the states and Union Territories are well on track to meeting their monthly targets. Indeed, as data compiled by Swarajya contributor Suraj S shows, all provinces were near the halfway mark, or past it, before half the month was over. The inference is that all will cross their August targets ahead of schedule, provided vaccine supplies continue on trend.

Yes I corresponded with the author privately after Swarajya connected us, and helped him with the data for that article. A great piece indeed.

Mod Note: Please don't bring in such garbage here.

Are you tracking the numbers vaccinated today on CoWin? its off the charts at 86,29,867

https://dashboard.cowin.gov.in/

SandeepA wrote:Are you tracking the numbers vaccinated today on CoWin? its off the charts at 86,29,867

https://dashboard.cowin.gov.in/

Today: 87,24,604 (Updated)

WOW!!!

Over 1 million people in Israel have now received 3rd shot boosters.
So far, all indicators support they are working to restore vaccine effectiveness vs infections to high levels, suppression of new cases.

Tanaji wrote:Amberji, given that its only bit more than 35M a week, isnt 180M optimistic? Also, the 270M number as well. The positive thing is we have >400M as the first dose and that number is steadily rising. So we can expect these to come back for the second as well, so really vaccine hesitancy for these is not there.

Even with these numbers we should see a significant drop in hospitalisation even if a new wave develops. Assumption of course is new variant with vaccine break through does not emerge.

Hi, The "optimistic" is the word we used..but if you look at <my post about SUTRA analysis even lesser of the rate and the situation will almost be same. (Ran some other numbers - much lower like 5M/day etc but it does not make much of the difference).. see the graph - yellow and green line.

Yes situation with respect to hospitalization/death/serious_cases will be MUCH better as we have learned. Oxygen situation, for example, we resolved within about two weeks (amazing).. and health infra-structure, as bad many point it out is a in India is, will be much better.

All bets are off if we get immune escape type variant. No one can predict that. Other than that - even if new variant is 25% more transmissive than delta ( delta+ and lambda etc are *not* more transmissive) and people go crazy with masks etc.. we still are much lower than the last wave).


Let us see how good the graph fits.

I received my third shot of the Pfizer vaccine last Saturday, after the CDC approved the third shot for immunecompromised people.

The reaction to the vaccine this time was more severe than from the second dose. I still have a slight fever.

I think the CDC will approve the booster shots for everyone by October. I would recommend getting it as soon as you are eligible.

vijayk wrote:
https://dashboard.cowin.gov.in/
Today: 87,24,604 (Updated) WOW!!!

Saw the figurers .. The 7PM values - give 9.99 Million doses for 48 hours ending 7PM Monday.
428,426,418 First Dose, 123,063,403 Second dose Total 551,489,821

Since Saturday 7pm PIB report, an extraordinary 19 million doses have been done. The last three PIB reports (Sat, Mon, Tue) read as follows:
Sat 541607338
Mon 551489821
Tue 560094581

Tuesday report: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1746779
Monday report: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1746488

Difference: 8,604,760

Two successive days of 8 million plus this week.

I had stopped tracking the number of cases. The number of cases has fallen to 25K for the first time in 5 months. Hopefully, it is not a blip.

OTOH, I am stunned to see that US is recording 2.5L new cases a day ...

Except Kerala (which accounts for 50% of all active cases) practically all states/UTs are showing downward trend. Now we are at 360k and still a bit far to go to reach the low point of first wave (135k). If we can control Kerala may be we can beat this second wave. Gujarat is reporting just 180 cases and it is surprising as it is bordering MH which is another laggard with 75k.

Latest study found that there was no significant difference in susceptibility for both mild and severe form of COVID-19 during the second wave in India between people without vaccination and single dose of vaccination. This is concerning.

What is Sutra models assumption in efficacy of single dose and how would the outcome change if this is lower?

Raja wrote:Latest study found that there was no significant difference in susceptibility for both mild and severe form of COVID-19 during the second wave in India between people without vaccination and single dose of vaccination. This is concerning.

What is Sutra models assumption in efficacy of single dose and how would the outcome change if this is lower?

Link please

rajkumar wrote:

Raja wrote:Latest study found that there was no significant difference in susceptibility for both mild and severe form of COVID-19 during the second wave in India between people without vaccination and single dose of vaccination. This is concerning.

What is Sutra models assumption in efficacy of single dose and how would the outcome change if this is lower?

Link please

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 417496.cms

Update:
Sat 541,607,338
Mon 551,489,821
Tue 560,094,581
Wed 565,732,128 (1st Dose: 439,462,267, Second Dose 126,269,481)

Wedness day report: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1747180


Last 24 Hours : 5.63 Millions.
Last Week 565,732,128 - 523,253,450 = 42,478,678 ( 6.07 Millions/day )
(So by the end of this month we may reach 645 Million shots)

Month-to-date total for August is now 98.5 million . 30.5m for the week to date, starting from the Saturday 7pm report as I do.

Will hit the 100m count on 19th, and then it becomes a potential question of the margin by which the 150m target for the month will be exceeded.

If this week maintains 5m/day for the rest of the week it will become the best performing week ever, overtaking the week of June 20 (44 million then).

Suraj wrote:Month-to-date total for August is now 98.5 million . 30.5m for the week to date, starting from the Saturday 7pm report as I do.

Will hit the 100m count on 19th, and then it becomes a potential question of the margin by which the 150m target for the month will be exceeded.

If this week maintains 5m/day for the rest of the week it will become the best performing week ever, overtaking the week of June 20 (44 million then).

Suraj San:

The pipeline this morning was low:

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1746849

Is there public information available on how many doses will be delivered, and when, for the rest of this month?

Kakkaji wrote:I received my third shot of the Pfizer vaccine last Saturday, after the CDC approved the third shot for immunecompromised people.

The reaction to the vaccine this time was more severe than from the second dose. I still have a slight fever.

I think the CDC will approve the booster shots for everyone by October. I would recommend getting it as soon as you are eligible.

From White House COVID-19 Response Team:

Starting the week of September 20th, fully vaccinated adults could begin getting booster shots 8 months after their second shot of an mRNA vaccine.

..

Kakkaji wrote:

Suraj wrote:Month-to-date total for August is now 98.5 million . 30.5m for the week to date, starting from the Saturday 7pm report as I do.

Will hit the 100m count on 19th, and then it becomes a potential question of the margin by which the 150m target for the month will be exceeded.

If this week maintains 5m/day for the rest of the week it will become the best performing week ever, overtaking the week of June 20 (44 million then).

Suraj San:

The pipeline this morning was low:

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1746849

Is there public information available on how many doses will be delivered, and when, for the rest of this month?

The pipeline has been falling this week - maybe because of the extended holiday ? There's reasonably a multiple day lag between an extended holiday and the pipeline drop becoming visible. The past week reads:
12/8 25554533
13/8 28257130
14/8 28543781
15/8 30390091
16/8 28947890
17/8 22552523
18/8 9403637

The way I see this, stocks rose leading to the weekend as they tried to stock up before a holiday, and then they consume that built up stock while waiting for supply resumption post holiday. Tomorrow's data should have some indicator of whether there's any disruption in supply.

This week has been tremendous in terms of performance. Looking at 7pm data, Monday and Tuesday constitute back to back days of 8.5 million doses, a never before seen performance.

I am worried about the mRNA vaccines and safety. especially the risk of heart muscle inflammation. i have taken 2 does of pfizer. got fever for multiple days for the 2nd dose. i am not sure if i have to expose myself to the 3rd dose. it is not 8 months yet. what do folks think about this risk?

The risk exists however small. One option available now is to visit India to get Covaxin at a private hospital.

V_Raman wrote:I am worried about the mRNA vaccines and safety. especially the risk of heart muscle inflammation. i have taken 2 does of pfizer. got fever for multiple days for the 2nd dose. i am not sure if i have to expose myself to the 3rd dose. it is not 8 months yet. what do folks think about this risk?

Please clarify such doubts with your physician. Nobody on an online forum can offer you medical advice about what is best for you depending on your medical history etc. It might be dangerous to listen to such advice if offered. Your doctor will have the latest information from the CDC along with your specific medical situation and will suggest a course of action based on the potential risks vs benefits.

Raja wrote:Latest study found that there was no significant difference in susceptibility for both mild and severe form of COVID-19 during the second wave in India between people without vaccination and single dose of vaccination. This is concerning.

Goes without saying that any (most) such "studies" should be taken with a grain of salt as most/many newspapers knowingly (or unknowingly) do not understand the math behind such studies.

What is Sutra models assumption in efficacy of single dose and how would the outcome change if this is lower?

As mentioned - quite conservative - effectiveness for "intermediate scenario - (yellow curve) 25% (one shot) and 50% (two shots) - the results are almost identical (green curve) where we took a value of (30/60). (BTW math is very similar whether you consider 70% of adult population with 70% efficacy or 80% with 60% efficacy - At present we are no where close to that so the effect due to vaccines for the next wave is not that affected by vaccine rate -in 2022 this will be more critical).

- Short term (next 4-5 months) *much more* than vaccines - good masking /ventilation and avoiding a crowd - to lower contact rate etc is *very* important - especially if there is new variant which escapes immunity (both vaccine and natural) or is more transmissive..

For perspective we are assuming beta = 0.4 for intermediate scenario - approximately like people behaving in Mumbai around Feb/March but not worse. People in US southern states like Texas - the observed value of beta is much higher so we hope we don't behave like that in terms of masking and crowd.

nachiket wrote:
Please clarify such doubts with your physician. Nobody on an online forum can offer you medical advice about what is best for you depending on your medical history etc. It might be dangerous to listen to such advice if offered. Your doctor will have the latest information from the CDC along with your specific medical situation and will suggest a course of action based on the potential risks vs benefits.

Thanks. This is important.
Also - Per announcement - the option is there - they are NOT asking you to get out and get a shot.
For many people in my family, who finished both shots in January, and who work in health care area this is a good option.

Thanks for the info, Amberji.

thx for the inputs folks. will followup with my doc. we are planning on visiting india in dec - so covaxin is also an option.

Amber G. wrote:Also - Per announcement - the option is there - they are NOT asking you to get out and get a shot.

Nitpick, but ... all Covid vaccination is a recommendation. There are very few mandatory vaccination requirements still.

I wish the inactivated vaccines are approved soon as there appear to be a significant number of holdouts.

Just heard White House update:
- Clarity on booster shots - For mRNA vaccines = all are advised to get booster shot after 8 months (instead of just giving an option). Process is straight forward and vaccines are free and will be available with minimum red tape.

-There are reports from CDC - Per Vivek Murthy - J&J Booster shots are coming - details in **coming weeks **

For India - Credible report - Booster shots for Covidshield is coming too. (Timing is again 8 months).

^^^In the US, vaccines have been straight forward since the beginning going back to late Dec. 2020. My wife and her colleagues got their 1st shot at the university the last week of Dec 2020 and 1st week of Jan 2021. Many people have already taken a booster shot on their own. It's all about having the antibodies. Personally, I'm done with mRNA vaccines and will take the J&J as my 3rd shot at Walmart.

V_Raman wrote:I am worried about the mRNA vaccines and safety. especially the risk of heart muscle inflammation. i have taken 2 does of pfizer. got fever for multiple days for the 2nd dose. i am not sure if i have to expose myself to the 3rd dose. it is not 8 months yet. what do folks think about this risk?

If you have a friend who is a cardiologist, they can do an ultrasound to see if there is visible signs of inflammation. There may also be some enzymes related to it which may require some blood test - again a pretty easy thing to do. Of course it all costs considerable money in the US.