Bharat Rakshak

Like other nations, India too is careful. It is also almost certain - that this variant will come in India (and other countries).. hopefully we can control it.

Israel, Belgium (in addition to Honk Kong and African countries) already have found a case..

In addition Europe case did not travel to SA - Tracing details of the Belgium case reveals only travel to Egypt and Turkey but not Sub-Saharan Africa at all. Worrying detail. (developed symptoms 11 days after going to Egypt, but has no links with South Africa or other high-risk countries.)

Per this paper published today, Omicron was first detected from a sample collected in Botswana on 11 November..
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publicati ... -b.1.1.529

In conclusion, the overall level of risk is assessed as HIGH TO VERY HIGH.

Amber G. wrote:^^^ Only thing which is not the worst kind is that Nu (ν) will be the WHO's name/Greek letter for the new variant. (Easier than B.1.1.529)..nothing else is coming out as any good news..
Guess Nu is better than B.1.1.529 but thats about it .. there is an emergency WHO meeting .. things looks scary even for non-experts..

Last I heard, there are only a total 100 (known) cases of B.1.1.529 worldwide. Of course, the number of cases as yet unknown, may be higher. Who can say what the multiplier factor is? Another advantage the world has in getting on top of this B11529 variant is that SA is very transparent and they are sharing all the data unlike China ~ 2 yrs ago.

Meanwhile news from our southern state (Florida)
Stupidity on parade. Potentially with serious consequences - One would assume that as doctors they would know better...

Seven doctors contract Covid after attending Florida anti-vaccine summit

>>Seven anti-vaccine doctors fell sick after gathering earlier this month for a Florida “summit” at which alternative treatments for Covid-19 were discussed. They tested positive or developed symptoms ‘within days’ of conference at which alternative treatments (like ivermectin were discussed)

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile: On Vaccine/Omicron front - All are busy to see how effective the vaccine is with this variant.
Covidshield/AstraZeneca examining impact of new COVID variant on vaccine.
Pfizer/BioNTech expect data on shot's protection against new COVID-19 variant soon.
(Similar reports for other vaccines).

One interesting aspect for India - India has stocks of Covovax (Novavax) vaccine manufactured by SII. This is not yet approved in India (or US) but has been approved in Indonesia, Philippines (and may get approval in few more places.) They are also making sure that this will work with the new variant.
Novavax developing vaccine that targets new COVID-19 variant

I have been watching with fascination how this has become so political in United States.

Why is it that the so called people of science are acting in such an idiotic fashion.

Vayutuvan wrote:

Amber G. wrote:^^^ Only thing which is not the worst kind is that Nu (ν) will be the WHO's name/Greek letter for the new variant. (Easier than B.1.1.529)..nothing else is coming out as any good news..
Guess Nu is better than B.1.1.529 but thats about it .. there is an emergency WHO meeting .. things looks scary even for non-experts..

Last I heard, there are only a total 100 (known) cases of B.1.1.529 worldwide. Of course, the number of cases as yet unknown, may be higher. Who can say what the multiplier factor is? Another advantage the world has in getting on top of this B11529 variant is that SA is very transparent and they are sharing all the data unlike China ~ 2 yrs ago.

Vayutuvan - Yes SA was very transparent -- thats really good and lucky but It seems that you may be misinterpreting the data about "known cases" in a huge way..The number you may have seen *may* be random sequence-testing to find proportion of Omicron in total samples tested. Sample size just gives ratio, you multiply by total number of infections to estimate the total - and that ratio changed in a frightful way and in a short time ( IOW the proportion of omicron took over all other variants. Total cases estimated is MUCH higher (in thousands), and even more seriously. if transmissivity is higher it can go exponentially. (As Prof Mahindra Agrawal said - SA may be not that bad (if it is not immune escape type - we don't know but we will know soon) BUT if it get introduced in other places in the world where there are people where it can spread --it will spread *very* fast)

Let me just show how serious this situation is - There are direct flights from SA many per week to Qatar and Dubai and 1 flight per week to NY, London, Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt, Zurich, Singapore, Istanbul, Cairo. (From some data I saw - exact number may be a little different)

And after the people got warning about this variant - *random* testing was done on passengers who flew in last month. They found (latest data I can see) 15 positive out of 110 tested. (Results of about 500 still pending)...
With this rate they estimate (Total passengers per their data was 188K so this could be as many as few tens of thousands passengers already may be outside SA. (Estimates from experts I see - lower figure at somewhat 6000 - we may know more in next few days with more data and testing.)

(I am just giving an idea - how these things are calculated - people whose job is to do contact tracing and finding flight data etc are busy doing this calculation - Expect to see more data on this testing and then finding out how bad the situation is (or not)

To reiterate - the people in HK and others were NOT showing symptoms.. they were caught only because they have mandatory testing/quarantine for travelers).

Yes it is quite scary - especially the transmissivity - we already have some data and have to get more data.

Let me make this point in a new post.

Given that covaxin is whole virus vaccine, will there be better response for covaxin? Also, I remember reading that Flu vaccines have 2-3 types of inactivated virus in them (they sort of predict which variants are most probable that year and include them). How long does it take for say Covaxin to include delta and omiron virus too in its vaccine and test them out ? another 6-8 months?

WHO’s Omicron VOC announcement bulletin

> Increased risk of reinfection
> Increase across almost all provinces of South Africa Flag of South Africa
> Variant B11529 may have growth advantage.

As a first step it, binding studies need to be done eg ELISA. Such studies really should not take more than hours. Covaxin may well bind more avidly to omicron. The next step is to demonstrate neutralising function of antibody. Eg in vitro. Again these data should already be generated. If binding / neutralisation titres are poor, it would be concerning.

Cell mediated immunity functions are not as well reported for the Wuhan virus. Such studies are no doubt in progress for this VOC.

Ultimately SA clinical data will be important. With the caveat that non SA populations may behave differently with a variant that they may be able to shrug off.

In other words, there is no substitute for real world data. Biological understanding does not yet generate predictions with confidence. We are all enrolled in nature’s experiment.

Latest - Here in USA the threat of this variant is being taken seriously - New York has declared State of Emergency --The federal government is sending doctors and nurses to Michigan.. I have not heard any report of any positive case here yet but I think it is only a matter of time. Midwest states are already seeing a wave, and this is certainly will add to its seriousness.

Please stay safe!

Good Night -- let me just post this on my last post of the day/night ..

Pratyush wrote:I have been watching with fascination how this has become so political in United States.

Why is it that the so called people of science are acting in such an idiotic fashion.

The rot started over 2 decades ago with the start of Global Warming/Climate Change scam. When the rest of the scientific community sees how "climate scientists" have made big careers and fame with a little bit of disingenuity, fudging of data and incestuous peer review system to help political movements and garnered a huge slush of research grants, tenured positions, chairs etc, the temptation is hard to resist. Not every scientist has sold his soul, but they are becoming a minority thats more and more afraid to speak out and face the biased media, SM backlash and cancel wokeism.

You are just airing your random (and in my opinion very false) opinion. Let's not completely derail this thread.

Current vaccines will continue to work in all probability against Omicron: vaccine expert https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 65208.html

some 84 people have entered India so far from the omicron virus affected countries and 2 south african citizens have been reportedly found infected at bangalore airport.

The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. The variant has also been identified in Botswana, Belgium, Hong Kong and Israel.

The ‘at-risk’ list of countries of interest to India are – European countries, including the UK, South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, Botswana, China, Mauritius, New Zealand, Zimbabwe, Singapore, Hong Kong and Israel.

I hope individual state governments roll back some of the recent decisions to open up all schools & colleges. 8/10 kids are not wearing mask or wearing it improperly. Earlier today I saw kids eating off each others hands road side food.

Similarly, urge companies to go back to WFH mode...lot of companies have asked their employees to return back to office over the past 2 months (at least in BLR)...Lastly, I hope the recent immunity acquired (either via Delta effects and/or vaccination) is still present in some force and will hopefully mitigate the impact of Omicron.

PM has asked Civil Aviation ministry to review the order to start scheduled international flights from Dec 15th in light of the new variant. Good proactive measures...GoI should start rigorous messaging campaign about people continuing to follow Covid norms. Low number of cases in the past few months have led people to believe that Covid is over in India and many people I know have stopped following Covid norms.

TWITTER

KANWAL SIBBAL ji is naughty:

Using Greek alphabet to name variants created piquant situation for WHO. All alphabets after Delta already used for new variants. Next alphabet was Xi , but naming it Xi variant would have made China apoplectic. World would then have got poetic justice &Tedros his just desserts.

https://twitter.com/KanwalSibal/status/ ... U_3iQ&s=19

Good Morning all.
Not a surprise that more and more cases are being found. Reports from Germany and a few other places..Netherland is reporting some 60+ possible cases (out of 600 tested)...(Full testing and confirmation takes time)

The first 2 Omicron cases detected in the UK, travel related. The UK and South Africa have some of the best sequencing capabilities in the world. (US and India do not have good sequencing surveillance)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... fied-in-uk

Added later: The numbers for Netherland, UK have been confirmed by main-stream news papers..)

Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

KANWAL SIBBAL ji is naughty:

Using Greek alphabet to name variants created piquant situation for WHO. All alphabets after Delta already used for new variants. Next alphabet was Xi , but naming it Xi variant would have made China apoplectic. ..

Not making it up According to a scientist who took part in naming - The original "Nu (ν)" caused confusion ("New Variant" was too confusing).. The next letter was Xi (ξ) and to remove confusion from original Whuhan version someone (jokingly) suggested ξ+ (Xi - plus).. They did settle (as prof. Vidyasagar jokingly tweeted ξ+ is same as ο (Omicron) the next letter.)
There are lot of jokes going around in this community - eg, if this variant is 3.14159 times as contagious than Delta may be it should named Pi...
(Some well known serious scientists have even more interesting tweets but they have deleted it as they were not sure if others will have humor)...

Pratyush wrote:I have been watching with fascination how this has become so political in United States.

Why is it that the so called people of science are acting in such an idiotic fashion.

This is about money and crony capitalism (in favor of Pfizer and Moderna) in the US where both federal and state governments have failed to contain active cases which stands at over 9.4 million today with total deaths of 800,000 (half of these have happened since Jan. this year). It is a holiday period in the US and in my very limited public place interaction, very few places in the US have people wearing masks or maintaining social distancing. Expect cases to rise in the next week and see more hospitalizations. It is inevitable and predictable disaster.

putnanja wrote:Given that covaxin is whole virus vaccine, will there be better response for covaxin? Also, I remember reading that Flu vaccines have 2-3 types of inactivated virus in them (they sort of predict which variants are most probable that year and include them). How long does it take for say Covaxin to include delta and omiron virus too in its vaccine and test them out ? another 6-8 months?

Sharing a nice article (highly recommend to read it in full) from FT which answers your questions and more.
An accelerated path to an Omicron specific vaccine in less than 3 months per this article. (I have heard similar figures - "3 weeks for mRNA vaccines - estimate from the time they get a code for their lab work" (not counting trials etc) from those who work there.. and similar figures for other vaccines too).. There is a lot of push for pressing hard for a pan-sarbecovirus vaccine that would target *all* variants.. Time will tell.
(Note: For Covaxin - the adjuvant used need not change and according to their scientists this process is also of the same time-frame).

Here is the article:

Drugmakers race to test vaccines against new coronavirus variant

Meanwhile: COVAXIN in USA - status update:

Ocugen (Covaxin's US partner) Provides an Update on its Investigational New Drug Application with U.S. FDA to Initiate a Phase 3 Clinical Trial Evaluating COVAXIN

Ocugen, Inc. (NASDAQ: OCGN), a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel therapeutics and vaccines, announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued a clinical hold on the Company’s Investigational New Drug application (IND) to evaluate the COVID-19 vaccine candidate, BBV152, known as COVAXIN™ outside the United States.About COVAXIN™ (BBV152)
COVAXIN™ (BBV152) is an investigational vaccine candidate product in the U.S. It was developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) - National Institute of Virology (NIV). COVAXIN™ is a highly purified and inactivated vaccine that is manufactured using a vero cell manufacturing platform.

With more than 100 million doses having been administered to adults outside the U.S., COVAXIN™ is currently authorized under emergency use in 17 countries, and applications for emergency use authorization are pending in more than 60 other countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently added COVAXIN™ to its list of vaccines authorized for emergency use. And, as many as 110 countries have agreed to mutual recognition of COVID-19 vaccination certificates with India that includes vaccination using COVAXIN™. The trade name COVAXIN™ has not been evaluated by the FDA.

As recently published in, The Lancet, COVAXIN™ (BBV152) demonstrated 77.8% overall efficacy, 63.6% efficacy against asymptomatic disease and 65.2% efficacy against the Delta variant in the Phase 3 clinical trial of nearly 25,800 participants. Adverse events reported in the trial were low, with 12.4% of subjects experiencing commonly known side effects and less than 0.5% of subjects experiencing serious adverse events, which is consistent with data from other vaccines that apply whole-virion technology. Both adverse events and serious adverse events reported in the vaccine group were reported at similar rates to the placebo group. The trial was conducted in India and sponsored by Bharat Biotech.

<snip> <link given above for the whole article>

Update: on those two South African nationals which tested positive for Covid-19. After genome sequencing, authorities stated that they had been infected with the delta variant, and not the new Omicron variant.

chetak wrote:some 84 people have entered India so far from the omicron virus affected countries and 2 south african citizens have been reportedly found infected at bangalore airport.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/amp/world/t ... 19787.html
too early to say if omicron is more lethal, almost all of the infected patients had mild disease only (though they were young)
SA medical chief.

IndraD wrote:https://www.breakingnews.ie/amp/world/t ... 19787.html
too early to say if omicron is more lethal, almost all of the infected patients had mild disease only (though they were young)
SA medical chief.

May be the best Omicron news of the day *if* further testing confirmed tracking all cases .. (Don't think we can be that lucky but one can hope)..

That is, if this very contagious variant could decrease virulence!!

South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’.
(There is a Telegraph story about this).
(One key symptom this doctor writes that the usual symptoms like loss of smell are not there with this variant but some unusual symptoms were found in her patients).

We would also know for sure in a few days (or a week or so)
- Whether antibodies in those vaccinated (including our vaccines) cross neutralize the virus/pseudovirus with the omicron spike.
- Will also examine added benefits of boosters, and risk of reinfection among those infected but not vaccinated vs vaccinated.
- If we learn Omicron is already in US and India. (Won't be surprised or disappointed - it is most likely)

Big question: If Omicron is accelerating outside of Africa, in Europe, and whether it really can outcompete Delta?

***
I am looking at recent data from Gauteng and using my favorite model (Sutra).. (It is nice that SA is sharing all data).. to definitely say a few things .. may be few more days or a week to see this phase. (Things do look like a spike 1,950 new cases (biggest single-day increase since last wave , 707 currently in Hospital with 55 in ICU).

We should be able to run simulations to estimate how this will effect India...(If the variant is as contagious as they fear, banning travel etc can delay the wave by a 15 days or so but not much as the virus is already in other parts of Europe and will come to India and will dominate the current delta version).

Hopefully SUTRA team will publish this in a week or two just like the earlier predictions were made with scenarios of more variant more contagious than Delta. If there is no immune escape and effective estimated beta is not that bad things may not be so bad ..we will see. I am much more worried for bad wave(s) in Europe and US..

Please stay safe. (I am thankful that vaccine campaign in India has gone (and is going) as smoothly as it did.. *and* Indian leadership is listening to scientists).

Amber G. wrote: May be the best Omicron news of the day *if* further testing confirmed tracking all cases .. (Don't think we can be that lucky but one can hope)..

That is, if this very contagious variant could decrease virulence!!

South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’.

Amber G ji,

as an internet wag says in a whatsapp forward received..........

India should be wary of this south african variant.

The last time when someone came from south africa, it resulted in a million deaths and a divided nation.

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-11-26/
Merck & Co (MRK.N) said on Friday updated data from its study of its experimental COVID-19 pill showed the drug was significantly less effective in cutting hospitalizations and deaths than previously reported.

The drugmaker said its pill showed a 30% reduction in hospitalizations and deaths, based on data from 1,433 patients. In October, its data showed a roughly 50% efficacy, based on data from 775 patients. The drug, molnupiravir, was developed with partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics.

The lower efficacy of Merck's drug could have big implications in terms of whether countries continue to buy the pill. Interim data from 1,200 participants in Pfizer Inc's (PFE.N) trial for its experimental pill, Paxlovid, showed an 89% reduction in hopsitalizations and deaths.

IndraD wrote:https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-11-26/
Merck & Co (MRK.N) said on Friday updated data from its study of its experimental COVID-19 pill showed the drug was significantly less effective in cutting hospitalizations and deaths than previously reported.

<snip>

Thanks.. I have also noticed and posted about this a few days ago from Merec's site:

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile another disappointing news from Merck.. Updated data for efficacy of their Molnupiravir pill in full trial drops down to 30% from 50% (absolute reduction to 3 from 7 per 100)

Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics Provide Update on Results from MOVe-OUT Study of Molnupiravir, an Investigational Oral Antiviral Medicine, in At Risk Adults With Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19

Good Morning all!
Sharing an excellent piece by Prof Devi Sridhar (hair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh) in Guardian..

How bad will the Omicron Covid variant be in Britain? Three things will tell us



There is lot of gyan there - even if situation/conclusions for India (and US) is a little different. ( Here in US and India free, rapid home tests, mitigation measures and the emphasis on boosters is a little different than UK). In UK about 25% eligible have gotten boosters while in US this number is around 10.

^^^ Also while attention has turned to Omicron, and still lot is unknown, the main issue is that Delta is rampant in many countries in Europe and the United States, with ~600,000 new confirmed cases a day globally. India the situation is little better but we should stay on guard and

*please* stay safe.

In US - largest source of confirmed new Delta cases, >90,000 per day (before holiday tracking issues). Highest European countries per capita here -- most are pandemic records!

^ Well, at least in the USA, Covid vaccine appointments are hard to find. Wonder what the UK has been doing differently.

vera_k wrote:^ Well, at least in the USA, Covid vaccine appointments are hard to find. Wonder what the UK has been doing differently.

Interesting. I walked into a Kroger Pharmacy in the North Texas area and got myself a booster. No appointments needed, walkins welcom.

The moving average of cases has dropped in the US to around 65,000, but at this time many states may not have reported on a timely manner due to holiday. The active cases in the US remains at a high of 9.4 million cases.

mappunni wrote:

vera_k wrote:^ Well, at least in the USA, Covid vaccine appointments are hard to find. Wonder what the UK has been doing differently.

Interesting. I walked into a Kroger Pharmacy in the North Texas area and got myself a booster. No appointments needed, walkins welcom.

i got a a booster appointment and a kids apt in a week in the DC area

vera_k wrote:^ Well, at least in the USA, Covid vaccine appointments are hard to find. Wonder what the UK has been doing differently.

I doubt this is the case given the story of the past few months where states have been turning back vaccines (for the lack of use). This was 4-5 months ago. Plenty of scenes on TV of vaccine centers seeing little traffic (again 3-4 months ago). I've personally seen a HUGE vaccine drive-through center shut down due to reduced usage, at one time it was very busy. There was a public debate about sending vaccines to other countries given the reluctance of the remaining population to take the shots (as I understand, not much vaccine has been exported).

^ Around us, the earliest vaccine appointment available was in the last week of December. Pediatric vaccines are even less available - the public schools get some, and they are gone before anyone outside the public school system can get it. Perhaps the rush for flu shots or generally high acceptability of vaccination is playing into it locally.

vera_k wrote:^ Around us, the earliest vaccine appointment available was in the last week of December. Pediatric vaccines are even less available - the public schools get some, and they are gone before anyone outside the public school system can get it. Perhaps the rush for flu shots or generally high acceptability of vaccination is playing into it locally.

This Thanksgiving we had a big family gathering, and a larger zoom meeting with extended family - With siblings/children/nephews/nieces/grandchildren - many generations and we do have a *very* large family scattered all over North America so a very large sample size (50+ people 3 generations) and geographically scattered. We talked about this - EVERY adult was fully vaccinated (boosted) (with exception of two adults in Canada as their last mRNA shot was in June). EVERY child (5 years and up) has been fully (even the second shot) vaccinated. Walk in (or rapid appointment in a day or so) in virtually *every* place. A few have gotten their flu shot with booster shot on the same day.
(Among my FB friends - virtually 100% of adults have gotten their booster by now too).

Please check such places - look on online - it should not be difficult.

(If you like, put your zip code - I can find you a place in US) .

Here in Ohio, Costco has walk-in like a other big stores. CVS/Kroger etc has online regitration with a very short wait (a few days at the most).
Our local library also has free rapid kits available - free to pick up for the whole family - to perform the tests at home. We use it routinely after any air travel when we visit other places.

chetak wrote:some 84 people have entered India so far from the omicron virus affected countries and 2 south african citizens have been reportedly found infected at bangalore airport.

The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. The variant has also been identified in Botswana, Belgium, Hong Kong and Israel.

The ‘at-risk’ list of countries of interest to India are – European countries, including the UK, South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, Botswana, China, Mauritius, New Zealand, Zimbabwe, Singapore, Hong Kong and Israel.

thing i am bit amused is what stops us to ban travel for 2 weeks from this countries instead of insisting on RT-PCR which will not be 100% full proof mechanism and we all know there are always loop holes in this guidelines

nits wrote: ..thing i am bit amused is what stops us to ban travel for 2 weeks from this countries instead of insisting on RT-PCR which will not be 100% full proof mechanism and we all know there are always loop holes in this guidelines

The thinking of the scientists behind is the following : ((and I fully agree with this as this becomes clear with modeling of the spread - not obvious without doing actual math )
- The total ban will at the most delay any possible peak by a two-three week period. This variant of virus seems to be quite contagious, and it has been going around for about a month (Honk Kong traveller travelled to Africa before Nov 11), so in all likely hood it is already in India and will spread. (Mathematics of exponential growth in virus spreading is complicated so it is difficult to explain without math modeling).
The decision, IMO, is based on input from Indian Scientists. (Similar recommendation is being made to US government)

^ That is fine but the ban could buy us some time to get a lot more people vaccinated.

The fear (which may well be unfounded) is being spread by MSM and being amplified on social media and some reluctant (lazy would be the more apt term) folks in my social circle are showing increased urgency in getting their second dose.

The health ministry could use this 'opportunity' for pushing hard on increasing the daily vaccination numbers.