India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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darshhan
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby darshhan » 02 Aug 2020 14:32

Dileep wrote:I think we have been shown 'finger 3'* and Finger 4 by the Chinis, and we are going to take that hit. Here is why:

1. It makes much more beneficial to use it to further the political and economic agenda, and going kinetic there.
2. There is no real military advantage in kicking them out from the 'both man's land' at the cost of a war. The price we pay would be the strengthened presence at Finger 4 to prevent the chinis from pushing further, which is way cheaper than a war but give the same benefit as having the the 'both man's land'.

So, we will now have a de facto LoC at Finger 4, Y junction and Galwan, instead of two LACs and a 'both man's land' in between.

Suites me!

*Middle finger is finger 3 from either side.


Some analyst you are. Screw political and economic agenda. World respects those who are capable of shedding copius amounts of blood. Both their own and more importantly their enemies'. Forget military advantage. Start killing.

And if you are unable to kill, then kindly disband the military. Just arm the regular junta with Aks and other small arms. They will fight the enemies just as fine. Infact they will also deal with the internal enemies much better.

We do not want the military for parades and defensive warfare. If they can't conquer, they are worthless. With one tenth of the current military's size, Peshwa Baji Rao was doubling his empire every couple of years. What is the achievement of the current politico military bureaucratic estabhlishment?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Aug 2020 15:20

India's was a policy of "peace at any cost short of war" both with Bakistan and China. So we found ways to give concessions after concessions to "make peace".

With the advent of Modi, the concession driven "peace at any cost" with Bakistan has changed but that policy was still in play with China till the latest LAC fracas happened.

Hopefully, Modi has learned his lessons and that policy will now be consigned to the dustbin for ever wrt China too. In a sense, Xi has done us a favor just as he has done the world a favor by being aggressive about 10-15 years before China was really ready to take on the world highhandedly. To that extent this is a gain.

Now that Modi has been "backdstabbed" (humbled/played/beaten), he will not take any chances now and pull back without restoration of status quo ante. That means China will also not pull back having realized that India is not backing down.

The Chinese, to increase pressure on Modi to back-down, are further increasing forces along the LAC and that has prompted India to mirror. This stalemate (with advantages to China) is untenable in the longrun.
  1. India cannot pullback with the Chinese amassed on the LAC.
  2. China cannot pullback with the Indians amassed on the LAC.
  3. This status does not suit either India or China but neither can backoff.
  4. India needs China to go back to OLD status quo for pulling back while China needs India to agree to the NEW status quo for it to pull back.
  5. IF India backs off without the OLD status quo restored, Modi's external image is going to be hit as also his standing as one of the major bulwark against the Chinese expansionism. Modi cannot allow that.
  6. Restoration of OLD status quo will hit China because a stalemate will be read as a victory for India/Modi and a defeat for China/Xi globally but also in China. This will lend ammo to Xi's opponents within the CCP.
Likely resolution is a skirmish that will decide the NEW status quo at the LAC. India does not have to go head to head with China at Pangang Tso but can create pressure elsewhere. There are places along the LAC that are porous enough to allow for small groups of foot patrols to slip across and squat. Galwan valley too was one such location before the Chinese and the Indians started building roads right up to the bend.

I believe Modi is not someone to be taken lightly but especially when his hand of friendship is brushed aside as the Chinese have just recently done. Sooner or later there should be action along the LAC.
Last edited by pankajs on 02 Aug 2020 15:22, edited 1 time in total.

abhik
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 02 Aug 2020 15:21

Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@drapr007
#BREAKING : FM S Jaishankar has made a big statement amid tension with China. He said that we have to be ready to fight with China. This statement came ahead of the 5th round of commander level talks with China. Earlier it was canceled but now it is to be held at 11 am today.


https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/128 ... 80417?s=20

Better to quote what the FM said rather than babaji's masala no?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VKumar » 02 Aug 2020 15:25

Expect war in October before winter. USA will be busy with elections and rest of the world with the second wave.

Must prepare especially air force and artillery for defence and navy for attack

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby m_saini » 02 Aug 2020 15:28

One thing that never fails to give me a chuckle is how India gets chapatified on both sides.

An inferior pakiland does whatever it pleases and there should be no war because apparently we've got much more to lose so it's not worth it. okay, understandable.

But then the chicoms also do whatever they please and again there should be no war because apparently furthering some political and economic agenda is more important and there is no real military advantage. What kind of economic and politica agenda is it that only comes into play when others kill our jawans?

Not that I want us to start a war tomorrow and I also do realize the human cost as well as the economic cost of war. Just an observation.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Aug 2020 15:30

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 307398.cms
How do you deal with China in a post-Ladakh crisis context? I ask this because, as India’s longest serving ambassador in Beijing, you know our China dynamic better than most.
Over the last three decades, we had steadily normalised our relationship on the assumption of peace and tranquillity prevailing on the border. This was the basis for the policies of successive governments. The state of the border and the future of our ties, therefore, cannot be separated. That is the reality. But as my book underlines, reaching an equilibrium with China is not going to be easy. We will be tested and we must stand our ground. Part of the answer is for us to also occupy more of their mind space.

Is our growing closeness to the US part of the problem?
Look, India is China’s largest neighbour, one with a matching civilisational history. Our ties are fundamentally bilateral in character. The relationship is not only hugely consequential for both nations, but for the world. We must therefore understand each other’s concerns, interests and aspirations accurately. Now, China may have its own issues and problems with the US. But to view us through an American lens would be a serious misreading of India. And clearly do the relationship great disservice.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Aug 2020 15:44

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... y-4801780/
Gen V P Malik calls for full review of ties with China, ‘diplomatically, economically, militarily’
“The military part, there is no doubt we must review. We have to improve our border roads and military capability in the mountains as long as we continue to have an unresolved boundary with China. Lately, the frequency of such confrontations along the LAC (Line of Actual Control) has been increasing. The cycles are getting shorter. The decibel level of threats and warnings has gone up. Under these circumstances, the military has to be prepared for all eventualities,” Malik said.

The retired general, who headed the Army at the time of the Kargil War, said negotiating with a tough neighbour requires the backing of a fully prepared military. “Sound defence is a part of sound foreign policy,” he said.
I agree. The capital budget of the forces will have to go up with the overall allocation going up to 3 to 4 percent of GDP for a couple of years at least.
“The mindset in the government,” he said, “has never recognised that we can have a serious confrontation with China sometime or the other. Otherwise why should our infrastructure on the northern border be so weak? We have been talking about infrastructure on the northern border from the time I was Army chief, that is nearly two decades ago. Plans were made but they remain on paper mostly.”
We must plan for an all out war short of nukes with China across the LAC within a decade. This is separate from the likely skirmish @ LAC to resolve the current standoff.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 02 Aug 2020 16:24

Well folks, there you go, PLA-AF have deployed their H-6 bombers at Kashgar. (BTW these updated images are available on G Earth app if you want to go through them).
Added: They have been there for a couple of months now.
https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 9043743749
d-atis
@detresfa_
Investigating reports regarding #China's PLA Air-force deployments at #Kashgar Airport, satellite images spot strategic long range bombers along with other assets on site, factoring in the distance from #Ladakh, the deployment could be part of the #IndiaChinaFaceOff
Image
Last edited by abhik on 02 Aug 2020 16:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sonugn » 02 Aug 2020 16:38

China refusing to even discuss Pangong Tso standoff in disengagement talks

China is practically refusing to discuss the standoff in Pangong Tso, with the deadlock in this friction point now deteriorating because of China simply dismissing it as a talking point. India Today TV has learned that the Chinese reluctance that emerged in the fourth round of talks on June 14-15 has escalated now into an all-out refusal to even acknowledge the Pangong Tso situation as a friction point.

Two, India Today TV has reported that China has spent the last three weeks building up in-depth areas of Pangong and activating several supply bases in Aksai Chin, capable of rushing in troops for hostile action at short notice.

In Depsang, China has mobilised in larger numbers than before and is continuing to mount temporary transgressions into the Indian territory with vehicles. This has happened for years, with Indian troops usually fending them off, but the transgressions have not only increased in number this year but also strength and duration.

In the past month, the Chinese Army, enjoying far better surveillance in the area than the Indian side, has kept pinpoint tabs on the Indian troop patrols.

When Indian troop teams move out on foot, the Chinese side immediately deploys vehicular convoys to intercept the patrols and block their paths. These collisions have acquired a rhythm of their own for nearly a decade, but there is marked aggression to how the Chinese are asserting the patrol blocks in the last month

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 02 Aug 2020 16:52

abhik wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@drapr007


https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/128 ... 80417?s=20

Better to quote what the FM said rather than babaji's masala no?


Hindi media is showing it TV9, Navbharat times:

https://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/i ... 310989.cms

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby darshhan » 02 Aug 2020 16:55

pankajs wrote: The capital budget of the forces will have to go up with the overall allocation going up to 3 to 4 percent of GDP for


3-4% of budget sounds about right. But only when you actually fight. Looks to me that our Politicians, bureaucrats, diplomats and even most of our generals are not interested in fighting. If they do not want to fight then what is the need for increasing the budget. If anything, the defence budget should be abolished altogether. Even this budget is not justifiable. sukhoi 30 mki was inducted approximately 20 years ago. Till date they have not been used in any major offensive operation except maybe Balakot where they were used in supporting diversion role. Similarly T- 90 tanks. Never seen any action till now. The money invested in them is mostly wasted. Is it that we are short of antagonists? To me atleast it seems that we are located in an extremely target rich environment. So where is the action? A sizeable percentage of our soldiers, airmen and sailors have never even seen war. Yes they have gone through battlefield innoculation but that is mostly through COIN. In this we do have an advantage over the chinese though.

The point is that public is now seeing things as straight as they are. They do not support the idea that military should only be used for republic day parades and counter terrorist ops. Jab Yudh ladna nahin hai to Fauj ki kya aavashyakta.
Last edited by darshhan on 02 Aug 2020 17:16, edited 1 time in total.

abhik
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 02 Aug 2020 17:16

I'm beginning to wonder what exactly we have gained from the whole disengagement process? That notion that the chinese would pull back from the "grey zones" (Depsang and Pangong) that they occupied with out any leverage or concession from our side is stupid to begin with. Might have been better to have our troops eye-ball to eye-ball in the Galwan valley, where they are in a worse off position than us (unless I'm mistaken and we are at a disadvantage here also).

abhik
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 02 Aug 2020 17:31

Manish_Sharma wrote:
abhik wrote:Better to quote what the FM said rather than babaji's masala no?


Hindi media is showing it TV9, Navbharat times:

https://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/i ... 310989.cms


I believe the exact quote is already posted here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&start=6600#p2451596

Diplomats choose their words carefully, "we must stand our ground" does not necessarily mean "we have to be ready to fight with China". AFAIK no senior government official has explicitly said we must get ready for war.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 02 Aug 2020 17:48

m_saini wrote:One thing that never fails to give me a chuckle is how India gets chapatified on both sides.

An inferior pakiland does whatever it pleases and there should be no war because apparently we've got much more to lose so it's not worth it. okay, understandable.

But then the chicoms also do whatever they please and again there should be no war because apparently furthering some political and economic agenda is more important and there is no real military advantage. What kind of economic and politica agenda is it that only comes into play when others kill our jawans?

Not that I want us to start a war tomorrow and I also do realize the human cost as well as the economic cost of war. Just an observation.


That is due to our unique ability to find reasons to be paralyzed. Here is one example - Don't say anything about Tibet as what will you do if China says the same about north-east or Kashmir. This has become such a standard that sometimes even our enemies remind us about this logic.

Here is another - Whenever someone brings up taking of land in Tibet, its always a waste land, no use, they cannot do anythere there etc. Even our first PM exemplified this attitude when he said not a blade of grass grows there. The Chinese never see an inch as waste land and then they move on to take kms. Now we have reports of how it snows less on their side. Cant we take the battle to the plains of Tibet so that in future we will also find it easier to defend in less snow, control the passes etc. Are these not important?

Train some of our border citizens on arms directed by the army, under vande mathram oath and ammo controlled and any invasion to India will be impossible.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 02 Aug 2020 18:12

Dileep wrote:*Middle finger is finger 3 from either side.



Thank, you. I was never very good at maths :D

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Iyersan » 02 Aug 2020 19:30

We have given up. We are only hoping we don’t lose further territory

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Nihat » 02 Aug 2020 20:21

Iyersan wrote:We have given up. We are only hoping we don’t lose further territory


That is an oversimplification of the situation. I'm very sure that under the current dispensation we will have a plan in place.

To act out of hot bloodedness while being under prepared would be foolish. We will pick out our place, or time and our escalation ladder to hit them where they least expect.

The Chinese have shown themselves to be vicious snakes by fotyfying their position over a couple of fingers on a lake and this will cost them in terms of economy, economic competition, access to sea lanes and the animosity of the next generation of Indian population.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dileep » 02 Aug 2020 21:14

darshhan wrote:Some analyst you are. Screw political and economic agenda. World respects those who are capable of shedding copius amounts of blood. Both their own and more importantly their enemies'. Forget military advantage. Start killing.

And if you are unable to kill, then kindly disband the military. Just arm the regular junta with Aks and other small arms. They will fight the enemies just as fine. Infact they will also deal with the internal enemies much better.

We do not want the military for parades and defensive warfare. If they can't conquer, they are worthless. With one tenth of the current military's size, Peshwa Baji Rao was doubling his empire every couple of years. What is the achievement of the current politico military bureaucratic estabhlishment?


I know! Veer Bhogya Vasundhara or The Quarterback Fscks the Prom Queen or whatever similar meaning.

Is our national plan is to 1) EXPAND physically? Is it to 2) EXPAND the vassal states? Or is it to 3) protect what is ours (and we claim to be ours)? OR.. Is it to 4) protect what we have and make a living?

I think it is really the fourth, while pretending it to be the third. Even the PM denounced the EXPANSIONISM at Ladakh. So, following Peshwa Baji Rao I isn't happening.

This may not be popular opinion here at BRF, but I don't see much objectionable in the rhetoric "not a blade of grass grows there" in a figurative way, ie something that offers no benefit to us. Having a 'no-mans-land' or 'both-mans-land' between us and the enemy is a benefit. Now, every benefit has a cost associated with it.

I have no idea on the military benefit between the following options:
- An active LoC at Finger 8 at the cost of a war.
- An active LoC at Finger 4 at the cost of maintaining permanent posts.
- A both-mand-land between Finger 4 and Finger 8 (status quo in 2019) for comparison purpose only. Definitely the lowest cost option. Talk is cheap onlee.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 02 Aug 2020 21:25

abhik wrote:I'm beginning to wonder what exactly we have gained from the whole disengagement process? That notion that the chinese would pull back from the "grey zones" (Depsang and Pangong) that they occupied with out any leverage or concession from our side is stupid to begin with. Might have been better to have our troops eye-ball to eye-ball in the Galwan valley, where they are in a worse off position than us (unless I'm mistaken and we are at a disadvantage here also).



Time: Helps blunt PLA logistical advantage

Diplomatic edge: full faith effort to resolve peacefully

More platinum tipping of the spearhead

India needs to fight at the time & place of her choice; not reacting to PLA.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Prem Kumar » 02 Aug 2020 22:13

India's stance vis-a-vis China seems to be one of Hold them in a tight bear hug. When they move left, move left. If they move right, move right. And while holding the bear hug, we will build infra, buy weapons and prepare for the indefinite future where we will give them a bloody nose.

All this winter clothing, preparing for the long haul etc is just a different way of saying: 'we will not attack, but hold the stalemate while continuing to talk'.

Our CSG believes we are in a Nash Equilibrium, where we both benefit by disengagement and reversion to status quo ante. The PLA disagrees. They want to shift the equilibrium and believe that their strategy is already succeeding. The CSG is living in denial & needs to be disbanded, but knowing Modi's incrementalism, this is unlikely to happen. So, we will jaw-jaw and prevent further incursions to the extent possible, but what's lost is gone.

This is Aman-ki-Asha all over again, where only one side wants peace unilaterally and suffers from a cognitive bias, where it believes that the other side wants it too. The deluded side feels that all it needs to do is reiterate the same bromide multiple times, start believing in it and call it diplomacy.

The actions of the brave 16 Bihar, though spontaneous, is being sought to be retrofitted into some sort of "new posture vis-a-vis the Chinese", i.e. we will repay violence with violence. But what's left unchanged is that we won't evict intruders, nor will we open a new front. China is happy to play this game, just the way we can play the Balakot game against Pakistan. As long as they can intrude and hold, while we keep losing only incremental territory, the political compulsion of not looking impotent will make the ruling dispensation deny the intrusion.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby m_saini » 02 Aug 2020 22:42

Prem Kumar wrote:China is happy to play this game, just the way we can play the Balakot game against Pakistan.


Not entirely true. For all the fun everyone makes of pakis, even they had the balls to retaliate militarily when we bombed some remote terrorist structures.

No wonder even countries like Nepal and sri lanka act smart and try to bully us every now and then :rotfl:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby eklavya » 02 Aug 2020 23:22

^^^^^
Winning requires “balls” and “brains”. Flashing outside the off stump when the new ball is seaming and swinging is not good batting. The best players know what to leave, what to attack, and when to attack.

We did not bomb “structures”, we killed a very large number of JeM terrorists. I am sure you know the difference.

The PAF retaliation the next day was better than 100 reports and Red Flag exercises for publicly highlighting (i.e. puts the government on the spot) what India needs to do to improve our air defence. The PAF showed its hand; and achieved nothing (other than 2 dead pilots and an F-16D lost).

As for Nepal, it is a sovereign nation with a Prime Minister who is intent on creating enmity between our countries. The more we ignore his impotent ranting, the less he succeeds.

As for Sri Lanka, if the LTTE had not attacked the IPKF, and then assassinated Rajiv Gandhi, they would have had Eelam in all but name by now. Instead they are finished. And they deserved to be finished.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Iyersan » 02 Aug 2020 23:40

=== deleted needless whine ===

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby m_saini » 02 Aug 2020 23:58

=== deleted needless whine ===

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby V_Raman » 03 Aug 2020 00:50

We will have to go by the confidence in this government after what they did with balakot. Public will wait and see - they have the public confidence and elections are ways off.

We cannot compare balakot retaliation here - LOC vs LAC - there is no gray are on the western side. the eastern side is not the case. We already had Chinese boats in that lake for a long time and both armies have been patrolling fingers 3/4. It is your claim vs mine - similar to Siachen. We squatted there first and we got it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 03 Aug 2020 01:05

What was the outcome from the 5th round of talks? No news from the usual sources (apart from it doing on for 12+ hours.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ArjunPandit » 03 Aug 2020 01:16

Mods please delete this rant, if you see it appropriate......
why this rona dhona..we have dismembered a nation in last 70s years...we have defended our interests..went blew the bluster of a noook powah..that used to scare us every moment with noooks..now all that is gone...
china is a different beast and our relationships is multi faceted. A thorough relook is being given and gradually screws are tightened..even paxtan was given 2-3 chances by this govt..
we might have absorbed more than we should have in 90s and may be in UPA but we are giving back as good as we get..for last few years...what else do we want..a ghafoora style twitter 5g warfare? If we are not satisfied we will have time to kick this govt in various elections...the stand off is going on as we speak....do we want real time info? does the rest of public have stomach for all the details..can we guarantee our desi media wont be manipulated like it was in kandhar hijacking...or to the use of enemy during 26/11..have patience..
i have trust in this govt that if something can be done it would be done at a time and place of our convenience..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Jarita » 03 Aug 2020 01:49

abhik wrote:I'm beginning to wonder what exactly we have gained from the whole disengagement process? That notion that the chinese would pull back from the "grey zones" (Depsang and Pangong) that they occupied with out any leverage or concession from our side is stupid to begin with. Might have been better to have our troops eye-ball to eye-ball in the Galwan valley, where they are in a worse off position than us (unless I'm mistaken and we are at a disadvantage here also).


Time. In the context of where we are, this is the most valuable gain.
Adding to this, great geopolitical powers have 100-500 year plans. They are not reactive and accept strategic retreat in view of larger gains.
China (who is a second hand copy of the west) also adopted a similar position post Doklam to regroup. Please do not keep going on about bloody nose etc. A bloody nose can be given in many ways, including the economic hit China has taken. A bloody nose can be given via others too.
Please wait and watch. One thing we can do on the BR forum is watch for Chinese firms investing in India directly or indirectly. You can destroy the enemy in many ways.
Last edited by Jarita on 03 Aug 2020 08:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby eklavya » 03 Aug 2020 01:55

^^^^
Excellent observations Arjun.

We are facing a powerful and dangerous enemy in the CCP/PLA. Even a country as rich and powerful as the US is emphasising the necessity of alliances or partnerships in countering this threat. Gradually the world is aligning against this threat, including most countries in Asia. Xi Jinping is unhinged: his actions against India, against the Tibetans, in Xinjiang, against Hong Kong, in the South China Sea, against Taiwan, against Japan, against Vietnam, against Australia (economic actions on exports), against countries that ban Huawei (like the UK, etc.) is strengthening world opinion against the CCP/PLA.

We must cooperate with these global actors to try and isolate the CCP/PLA economically, financially, and politically. We also need to undertake a defence build up and defence cooperation.

People on the board say open an embassy in Taiwan. I say, invite the Taiwan Air Force and the Japan Air Force to India for exercises, and we will also reciprocate by visiting Taiwan and Japan with our IAF fighters.

Tighten the noose on the CCP/PLA. When they make a mistake (which they will, sooner or later) go for the kill.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rishirishi » 03 Aug 2020 02:38

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Excellent observations Arjun.

We are facing a powerful and dangerous enemy in the CCP/PLA. Even a country as rich and powerful as the US is emphasising the necessity of alliances or partnerships in countering this threat. Gradually the world is aligning against this threat, including most countries in Asia. Xi Jinping is unhinged: his actions against India, against the Tibetans, in Xinjiang, against Hong Kong, in the South China Sea, against Taiwan, against Japan, against Vietnam, against Australia (economic actions on exports), against countries that ban Huawei (like the UK, etc.) is strengthening world opinion against the CCP/PLA.

We must cooperate with these global actors to try and isolate the CCP/PLA economically, financially, and politically. We also need to undertake a defence build up and defence cooperation.

People on the board say open an embassy in Taiwan. I say, invite the Taiwan Air Force and the Japan Air Force to India for exercises, and we will also reciprocate by visiting Taiwan and Japan with our IAF fighters.

Tighten the noose on the CCP/PLA. When they make a mistake (which they will, sooner or later) go for the kill.


Thumbs up. India can't counter China on its own and this issue is not about some border in the worlds most hostile and useless place. It is about showing strength and making neighboring countries afraid. So far China's policy seems to have backfired misrably. USA just got the allies it needed, to start a new cold war, this time against China. And it is going to be nasty. Already Apple is moving 5 billion dollars manufacturing is moving to India. Companies are moving out of China. But even worse, wealthy Chinese business owners and even corrupt officials are moving capital out of China. Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Phillipines have already joined the alliance to stop China. EU will definatly join in against China. Maybe even Russia will.
India needs to play the cards correctly. Best best is to keep the Chinese threat alive and be important for USA. When China colapse, India may become the next in line. Only way out for India, is to Intigrate itself with USA and EU to a point, where they do not feel thretned by the rise of India.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 03 Aug 2020 05:25

darshhan wrote:
Dileep wrote:I think we have been shown 'finger 3'* and Finger 4 by the Chinis, and we are going to take that hit. Here is why:

1. It makes much more beneficial to use it to further the political and economic agenda, and going kinetic there.
2. There is no real military advantage in kicking them out from the 'both man's land' at the cost of a war. The price we pay would be the strengthened presence at Finger 4 to prevent the chinis from pushing further, which is way cheaper than a war but give the same benefit as having the the 'both man's land'.

So, we will now have a de facto LoC at Finger 4, Y junction and Galwan, instead of two LACs and a 'both man's land' in between.

Suites me!

*Middle finger is finger 3 from either side.


Some analyst you are. Screw political and economic agenda. World respects those who are capable of shedding copius amounts of blood. Both their own and more importantly their enemies'. Forget military advantage. Start killing.

And if you are unable to kill, then kindly disband the military. Just arm the regular junta with Aks and other small arms. They will fight the enemies just as fine. Infact they will also deal with the internal enemies much better.

We do not want the military for parades and defensive warfare. If they can't conquer, they are worthless. With one tenth of the current military's size, Peshwa Baji Rao was doubling his empire every couple of years. What is the achievement of the current politico military bureaucratic estabhlishment?

Look for India to strike back in a place that is more meaningful.... Hint: TSP is right to be worried,

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 03 Aug 2020 05:57

Just a thought balloon, would it be possible to capture (and hold) territory in Shaksgam valley as a counter move? That would be a big Finger 3 to both Jihadland and Hanland.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Guddu » 03 Aug 2020 06:00

"Look for India to strike back in a place that is more meaningful.... Hint: TSP is right to be worried"

I like this thinking. If I was advising the govt I would do the following.
- Hold the Chinese to a stand-off, through the winter until next year.
- Use the time to get forces ready, S-400 and rafales (both are crucial).
- When ready take back Gilgit-Baltistan, cut-off CPEC.
- Once that is done, Aksai Chin and Shaksgam can be renegotiated, China's interest will decline in Pak, once CPEC is gone.
- At this time it would be in China's interest to settle the border.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby k prasad » 03 Aug 2020 06:36

short of going kinetic and forcing the PRC forces from their perches, which would potentially precipitate action across a broad front, especially in places where we are at a tactical disadvantage, the best course of action to force a disengagement would be to repeat the past Depsang strategy of occupying significant territory on the Chinese side of the LAC, and use that as leverage to force a status quo ante.

Just a thought balloon, would it be possible to capture (and hold) territory in Shaksgam valley as a counter move? That would be a big Finger 3 to both Jihadland and Hanland.


I'm not sure that's a great idea, both tactically or strategically... Access into Shaksgam from the Teram Shehr or Rimo glaciers is incredibly difficult, and any force going from there will face an enemy that is very well supplied, with road access from the POK and Xinjiang side. The alternative is to go through the Karakoram Pass and up the Yarkhand River, through territory that lies consistentlyy above 5200 m. Neither is tactically feasible, and the territory cant be held.

At a strategic level, any occupation through the Karakoram Pass opens up the entire region along DBO-Depsang to counterattack, which is most likely an opportunity the Chinese are just chomping at the bit for. Remember, our infrastructure and access to the area is still not very good, and there is only one route to DBO - the DSDBO road. The Saser La road is going to be closed for winter in a couple of months. And it brings Pakistan into the equation too, where they could claim casus belli, whereas now, there really isn't one.

Why would we then try to occupy territory that we cannot conceivably hold when it is a strategically and tactically unsound plan?

The better option would be to occupy territory in other sectors along the LAC where we are at a tactical advantage, with good all-year connectivity.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 03 Aug 2020 07:17

Folks just a reminder.
Once hostilities start there will be no place for whiners, critics of the military. Norhing that hurts the soldiers or their families.

So enjoy till then.

Ramana

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 03 Aug 2020 07:24

eklavya wrote:^^^^^
Winning requires “balls” and “brains”. Flashing outside the off stump when the new ball is seaming and swinging is not good batting. The best players know what to leave, what to attack, and when to attack.
<snip>.


Well said sir.

Many of the posters seem to think that this is a T-20 Match, whereas this is a Test Match Series.

Why are folks posting the same thing over and over again? The same posters writing that India will not fight, no guts, CSG this CSG that et al.
You did make up your minds many pages ago and informed us of the same. Ok we get it. Move on.

For those of us patiently waiting for the balloon to go up, in case things on the ground don't change, this whining is getting quite repetitive.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 03 Aug 2020 07:31

The same posters will complain if they lose a job, whine is Chinese launch of a few CMs at Indian cities and kill civilians, shiver if China or Pakistan threaten Nukes. I remember when Pakis threatened to attack with Nukes during operation Parakram the whine fest in Indian society. Let's be patient, if its going to be war we all should risk it not only soldiers at the front. There is too much selfishness in Indian society which is the reason our enemies even think of tactical nukes, no one would dare do it with the US.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby manjgu » 03 Aug 2020 08:46

trust your govt to take the right decisions at the right time taking all the factors in consideration not only the blood lust of BRF members... BRF members tend to have v myopic outlook of events ( more focussed on mil aspect). its a huge responsibility to send people to war...and death.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 03 Aug 2020 09:03

Dileep wrote:
This may not be popular opinion here at BRF, but I don't see much objectionable in the rhetoric "not a blade of grass grows there" in a figurative way, ie something that offers no benefit to us. ....


The fresh water lakes, source of water to Brahmaputra river and other tributaries.
Last edited by suryag on 03 Aug 2020 20:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Jarita » 03 Aug 2020 09:16

India needs to play the cards correctly. Best best is to keep the Chinese threat alive and be important for USA. When China colapse, India may become the next in line. Only way out for India, is to Intigrate itself with USA and EU to a point, where they do not feel thretned by the rise of India.


Hmmm even a boontown like Iraq was a threat to Sam so much so that they created multi generational damage through their cluster bombs. India is already a threat which is why Albright way back had said it should be split up into 29 countries.
You cannot ingratiate yourself to the Anglo combine unless it is an EIC model and we all know where it went. There is no friendship or partnership. It is a one way model and we are more than that. And we are a threat and there will be continuous activity to diminish us.
One thing posters here should note is that China is mostly a threat to it's border countries through its creeping territorial ambitions. It's not bombing Zimbabwe to bits. In the event of a war between say India and China, it would be high stakes for China as it's territory would be involved. This has not been the case for Sam beyond pearl harbor. Hence there are no compunctions to grind civilizations to the ground be it Japan, Mesopotamia or Syria.
India has to unfortunately play Russian roulette and play it well. This is where we need to no non aligned (yes I know the posters will not like it). I don't see us playing our China cards too well and this is a failure of the China desk. Perhaps one is being over ambitious but I believe if we play our China cards well we can solve the border issue. Beyond that we can tackle China and even collaborate with them. No, they are not friends but they are less dangerous than the Anglo axis.
The problem is that the Indian think tanks view China as a monolithic entity. Even under the CCP it is not. There are multiple factions including a re purposing of the old guard prior to Mao. Some of the older families in Wuhan actually go back way before Mao. Also, unlike Japan, the Chinese ruling class was well penetrated by western missionaries way back 300 years. I had read a pretty good book on this and will write out a synopsis some day. There is such a group within the ruling classes as well. These factions are played against each other by western groups.
With regards to the statement "why US and the west fears China", it's less the weapons and more the money trails and investments. They are deeply invested in China and so are their backers. Witness what Musk who is a so called conservative is saying. As I have stated earlier, China gives them the slave/indentured labor model that has been the engine of growth for the western empire.


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