Mamata making noises that the center will stop the polls halfway, which would be to her benefit.
she must know something that the EC and the rest of the planet does not -- she is planning something diabolical before the end of the 8 phases.
One must put conspiracy theorist hat on to anticipate their next moves. Is the use of term 'dangabaazi' a portent of things to come? Freudian slip?
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 06 Apr 2021 20:40
by Hari Seldon
GoI must seriously prepare for rioting in WB. Equipment, pellet guns, rubber bullets, lead bullets and critically, clear RoE, whatever it takes.
Enough dry runs (e.g., Delhi 2020, Bhainsa 2021) have happened already in various places in the country. The cottage industry that can manufacture riots on demand ('Dial-a-riot') is a mere phone call away.
Only.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 06 Apr 2021 21:19
by vijayk
Rishi Bagree Flag of India @rishibagree
Mamata Didi appealed to woman voters in villages to Chase outsiders away with ‘hata-khunti’ .
Women voters heeded her advice and chased away TMC polling-agent Babar Ali Khan in Arambag out of the booth with ‘hata, khunti’
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 06 Apr 2021 21:22
by Kati
Sri Shafiqul Islam (editor of Arambagh TV) is blowing another lid off..... Exposing another TMC perfidy.
Here, the South 24 Parganas TMC president Subhashis Chakraborty, who also happens to be Rajya Sabha TMC MP, has been caught in video instructing his party workers - "If left vote increases then no problem, but in these three booths no Hindu should be allowed to cast his/her vote...."
Mamata Didi appealed to woman voters in villages to Chase outsiders away with ‘hata-khunti’ .
Women voters heeded her advice and chased away TMC polling-agent Babar Ali Khan in Arambag out of the booth with ‘hata, khunti’
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 06 Apr 2021 22:01
by vijayk
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 06 Apr 2021 22:27
by ramana
Now that polls have closed, what was the turnout and sentiments in TN, Kerala?
Bengal Phase 3, BJP expected 18/31.
In 2016 TMC got 29/31 here.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 06 Apr 2021 22:33
by Dilbu
Mixed signals from Kerala. There is definitely polarisation of 'secular' votes and cross voting against BJP. I was expecting 0-3 seats for NDA but the dip in voting percentage is slightly confusing.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 06 Apr 2021 22:57
by vijayk
ramana wrote:Now that polls have closed, what was the turnout and sentiments in TN, Kerala?
Bengal Phase 3, BJP expected 18/31.
In 2016 TMC got 29/31 here.
any news on Assam?
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 00:17
by arshyam
It seems to have gone without incident in Assam. Polling percentage just above 80% IIRC (saw a headline on TV).
TN was around 69%, provisionally. Final figures awaited.
KL 74%, Puduchery just above 80%.
Not sure about WB.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 01:33
by fanne
Bengal it is 18/31 (now numbers are not as good as phase 4). This was supposedly tough phase for BJP
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 01:34
by vijayk
fanne wrote:Bengal it is 18/31 (now numbers are not as good as phase 4). This was supposedly tough phase for BJP
where are you guys getting these numbers from?
any idea on TN and Assam?
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 01:37
by Kati
Polling for 40 seats in the third and final phase of Assam Assembly elections ended on Tuesday with a voter turnout of 82.33 per cent recorded as of 8 pm, according to the Election Commission of India.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 01:39
by AshishA
What's the situation in Tamil Nadu? Who is coming? DMK or AIADMK?
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 02:18
by uskumar
I will be very surprised if dmk doesn't win absolute majority. TN always throughs up one sided contest. from my limited info I can see youth and lot of first time voters voting for dmk just to see change, after all aiadmk has been ruling the state for last 10 years.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 02:49
by SivaR
The music album 'Enjoy Enjaami' released on March first week hitting 100 Million views is indication of the DMK wave. The eastern and southern TN both agrarian is consolidating to DMK. Western TN(industrious) , which the successive governments always takes for granted but EPS (who is from West) focussed for last few years is not conducive to East and South TN.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 03:14
by vijayk
siva509 wrote:The music album 'Enjoy Enjaami' released on March first week hitting 100 Million views is indication of the DMK wave. The eastern and southern TN both agrarian is consolidating to DMK. Western TN(industrious) , which the successive governments always takes for granted but EPS (who is from West) focussed for last few years is not conducive to East and South TN.
Sad
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 05:11
by asbchakri
fanne wrote:Bengal it is 18/31 (now numbers are not as good as phase 4). This was supposedly tough phase for BJP
So in 3 phases BJP expecting 74/91. Can anyone estimate how it will fare in the other phases based on ground realities and last LS elections results or we need to wait for voter turnout %
?- I know total is 56 not sure about each phase
Phases Dates Seats Expecting
--------------------------------------------------------
Phase 1 March 27 --- 30 --- 28 ?
Phase 2 April 1 --- 30 --- 28 ?
Phase 3 April 6 --- 31 --- 18
Phase 4 April 10 --- 44
Phase 5 April 17 --- 45
Phase 6 April 22 --- 43
Phase 7 April 26 --- 36
Phase 8 April 29 --- 35
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 11:29
by Prem Kumar
TN Voting % is 71.79. It was 74% in 2016. Not a bad turnout, considering Corona. I would be surprised with anything other than a DMK sweep.
I'd like to draw parallels between the TN 1967 elections (back then called Madras Legislative Assembly) and what's been happening in TN since Jaya's death. 1967 was the year when DMK came to power, the year when Dravidian politics became mainstream & when Congress died in TN
1) Leadership: whenever there has been a loss of a strong leader, the ruling party has lost. In I1967, after Kamaraj had stepped down, there was an uncharismatic Bhaktavatsalam. In 1989, after MGR died, there was a split between Jaya & Janaki factions. Now the same situation transpired due to Jaya's death (Sasikala, EPS & OPS)
2) North Indian tag: now, as back then, DMK played the anti-North-Indian tag. In 1967, it was Hindi imposition. Now, its "AIADMK controlled by North Indian BJP"
3) Agitations: in 1967, there were repeated agitations due to rice-shortage, inflation & anti-Hindi. The last 5 years, its been about Jallikattu, Sterlite, Salem highway etc. Constant hammering of the message that the State Govt is in control of the Central North Indian Govt, which is anti-Tamil. Agitations keep the narrative fresh in people's minds
4) Cinema & media: DMK has always been strong in this area. In 1967, it piggybacked on MGR's charisma and politically-loaded movies/songs. Its been the same trend in the last 5 years, with the addition of social media. The recent ad-media blitz is part of the same plan.
5) Anti-Brahminism: this has been a staple of DMK politics since its very beginning. This wasn't a factor in 1967 (because Kamaraj's ascension helped removed the Brahmin-party tag from the Congress). But the DMK made it into a factor in the last 5 years using the formula: RSS=Brahmin=puppet-masters
The more I see it, the more I am convinced that the DMK has only 1 template that I listed above. It smelled blood when Jaya died. They dusted off their 1967 template and adopted it with today's tools.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 13:06
by Mukesh.Kumar
asbchakri wrote:
fanne wrote:Bengal it is 18/31 (now numbers are not as good as phase 4). This was supposedly tough phase for BJP
So in 3 phases BJP expecting 74/91. Can anyone estimate how it will fare in the other phases based on ground realities and last LS elections results or we need to wait for voter turnout %
?- I know total is 56 not sure about each phase
Phases Dates Seats Expecting
--------------------------------------------------------
Phase 1 March 27 --- 30 --- 28 ?
Phase 2 April 1 --- 30 --- 28 ?
Phase 3 April 6 --- 31 --- 18
Phase 4 April 10 --- 44
Phase 5 April 17 --- 45
Phase 6 April 22 --- 43
Phase 7 April 26 --- 36
Phase 8 April 29 --- 35
Call me hyper superstitious if you will but I am worried about the high turnout in Corona times. If someone could corroborate this with first hand information it would be good. Else I would look at this as an indicator of vote rigging. Something TMC has the wherewithal to pull off
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 14:19
by Yagnasri
COVID not stopping people from voting. Central police and EVMs stop mass rigging as before. It takes lot of time to rig hundreds of votes in any polling booth and they will not such a time in most of the cases. There is a tight fight by all accounts.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 16:52
by Primus
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
asbchakri wrote:
So in 3 phases BJP expecting 74/91. Can anyone estimate how it will fare in the other phases based on ground realities and last LS elections results or we need to wait for voter turnout %
?- I know total is 56 not sure about each phase
Phases Dates Seats Expecting
--------------------------------------------------------
Phase 1 March 27 --- 30 --- 28 ?
Phase 2 April 1 --- 30 --- 28 ?
Phase 3 April 6 --- 31 --- 18
Phase 4 April 10 --- 44
Phase 5 April 17 --- 45
Phase 6 April 22 --- 43
Phase 7 April 26 --- 36
Phase 8 April 29 --- 35
Call me hyper superstitious if you will but I am worried about the high turnout in Corona times. If someone could corroborate this with first hand information it would be good. Else I would look at this as an indicator of vote rigging. Something TMC has the wherewithal to pull off
Understandable, sounds almost too good to be true. Dare we dare to dream again in WB?
However, if you listen to the reporting of balanced and neutral (but dharmic) journalists, it seems that TMC is having a hard time. Even in the phase 3 voting where it was in their stronghold areas, the attrition caused by Cong, CPI and ISF will cost them and favor the BJP. At least that is the conclusion of Dhirendra Pundir in his discussion with Sanjay Dixit on the JD channel. His report on the earlier phases of voting is also very interesting. worth watching the whole thing, IMHO.
Here is the latest discussion:
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 17:52
by chetak
India's inclusive electoral process.
A mother leaves her daughter in the safe hands of a central forces soldier while she has gone to exercise her right to vote.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 22:25
by Kati
asbchakri wrote:
fanne wrote:Bengal it is 18/31 (now numbers are not as good as phase 4). This was supposedly tough phase for BJP
So in 3 phases BJP expecting 74/91. Can anyone estimate how it will fare in the other phases based on ground realities and last LS elections results or we need to wait for voter turnout %
?- I know total is 56 not sure about each phase
Phases Dates Seats Expecting
--------------------------------------------------------
Phase 1 March 27 --- 30 --- 28 ?
Phase 2 April 1 --- 30 --- 28 ?
Phase 3 April 6 --- 31 --- 18
Phase 4 April 10 --- 44
Phase 5 April 17 --- 45
Phase 6 April 22 --- 43
Phase 7 April 26 --- 36
Phase 8 April 29 --- 35
Mumtaaz Banoo is finding her going getting tough. If the South Bengal is becoming such a tough battle for her then the North Bengal will be her Waterloo. BJP is much stronger in North Bengal, and has a much better backing of local RSS network.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 22:28
by Kati
Though in Assam Sonowal is predicting a 100+ outcome, it is too much optimistic, perhaps to keep the party workers in a good spirit.
In reality, due to INC+ AIUDF alliance it will not be an easy victory for BJP. A more realistic figure is 75+.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 07 Apr 2021 23:30
by KL Dubey
^^Whatever it is, a win is a win. 64 in AS and 148 in WB are all that is needed.
I am expecting wins in WB, AS, and PD.
If NDA manages to scrape through in TN and gets a few seats in KL, dat's icing on da cayke.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 08 Apr 2021 04:25
by ramana
And Puducherry.
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 08 Apr 2021 06:53
by Ankit Desai
Amit Shah predicts 65-68 seats after Phase 3 in WB.
-Ankit
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 08 Apr 2021 22:18
by Kati
Ankit Desai wrote:Amit Shah predicts 65-68 seats after Phase 3 in WB.
-Ankit
In a major development - in North Dinajpur district (of WB), half of top TMC leadership defected to BJP.
By the way, BJP is much stronger in North Bengal.
The word of mouth in the border districts is that "Hindus don't want to be refugees again in their homeland".
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 09 Apr 2021 01:00
by Ankit Desai
Kati wrote:
.....
In a major development - in North Dinajpur district (of WB), half of top TMC leadership defected to BJP.
By the way, BJP is much stronger in North Bengal.
The word of mouth in the border districts is that "Hindus don't want to be refugees again in their homeland".
I think much depend on how many votes ISF & congress + left coalition eat in as well Hindu vote consolidation.
-Ankit
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 09 Apr 2021 01:59
by Mukesh.Kumar
Primus wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Call me hyper superstitious if you will but I am worried about the high turnout in Corona times. If someone could corroborate this with first hand information it would be good. Else I would look at this as an indicator of vote rigging. Something TMC has the wherewithal to pull off
Understandable, sounds almost too good to be true. Dare we dare to dream again in WB?
However.......
Sirji you expressed my feelings exactly.
So in honor of that ( BTW where is Dilbuji?)
BJP will lose only
Re: 2021 Five State Elections
Posted: 09 Apr 2021 05:22
by ramana
Primus, Haridas made a map of Bengal showing phases and number if seats in each phase. He overlayed on 2019 election results.
It shows the hardest for BJP was 3rd phase and they expect 18/31.
After that it will be 8th phase.
Rest 4,5,6,& 7are BJP areas.
Jaipur Dialogues did a program on the 3rd stage on WB. They predict the BJP did quite well in this supposed TMC stronghold. People were voting without fear, and BJP gave it back as hard as they are getting from TMC, even in these areas.
