Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 02 Feb 2022 23:47

MyIndMakers' Aadit Kapadia and Pramod Kumar Buravalli offer their characteristically detailed analysis of Punjab and Goa elections here:

Watch from about 12 minute 40 second mark onwards (until then they are talking mainly about Netaji, etc.)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Feb 2022 03:31

Thanks.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 03 Feb 2022 06:40

Ground level report from UP. Some of the things reported from video is shocking.

Under SP, Only peacefuls were given government funds and support like Laptops while Hindus were left to fend for themselves.
While Yogi is the main CM face, there are local tensions between castes and communities. So people might not vote for BJP due to these complex equations.
SP used peacefuls as their attack dogs to kill BJP leaders, like they did to a BJP MLA who was killed by a bomb.

Mulayam lost in UP because traditional Lodhi / Muslim equations soured in his prime location.

A lot of golden nuggets in this video and amazing level of details I wasn’t aware of. UP is really a hard place to win.

LIVE Q&A Session: Will Yogi Be Back? | UP चुनाव प्रश्नोत्तर सत्र: क्या है योगी के लौटने की सम्भावना

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 03 Feb 2022 11:47

vimal wrote:Only peacefuls were given government funds and support like Laptops while Hindus were left to fend for themselves.

A bit surprised on that one. So was the BJP government stupid enough to NOT know where the government funds were going? And the local BJP workers who would have seen this event on the ground did nothing?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 Feb 2022 12:04

I have not yet watched this video. However, in many of the previous Ajit Bharti videos. I have noticed a distinct trend that some activist type is always critical of the government and presents such issues that sometimes cannot be refuted by doing reasonable due diligence. At other times it's quite blatant.

Therefore, we don't really know what happened with the laptop scheme of the government.

E.g, I know that Akhilesh sarkar was distributing laptops to "students". I didn't know about YAN sarkar doing the same.

So, if the sarkar was distributing laptops and that was being cornered by a particular community. It is not possible that ground level BJP activists would just have been quite about it for the last 5 years.

So in my initial assessment not having watched this video. I would say that it's psy ops from opposition party activists.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 03 Feb 2022 12:07

BJP will lose onlee.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 03 Feb 2022 12:57

I should’ve been more clear. Laptops were issued to peacefuls under SP. It’s clear from the video. There is no psy ops here.

Ajeet Bharti is doing a great service at ground level. He might not be super intellectual type but connects at ground level, let’s not drag him down.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 03 Feb 2022 14:08

But this is an issue which can be taken in 2 months time, first fight the battle, no need confuse voters when such an important election is due.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 03 Feb 2022 14:49

vimal wrote:SP used peacefuls as their attack dogs to kill BJP leaders, like they did to a BJP MLA who was killed by a bomb.

Cat's paw. Congress and church use Maoists to bump off BJP leaders in tribal belts. Americans use NGOs to stall development projects in India. To find the puppeteer, always ask: "Who will be the beneficiary?"

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 03 Feb 2022 15:41

Muslim vote consolidation en-masse behind SP. They're calling it the "West Bengal model"

https://swarajyamag.com/reports/no-more ... western-up

This single-agenda community is clear. Its the average Hindu voter who is confused. In UP, hopefully enough Hindus turn up to vote & get Yogi back to power. But in the long run, we need to solve the demographic problem

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 03 Feb 2022 18:51

https://indianexpress.com/elections/owa ... i-7755311/

SP going after Owaisi as he is their main competitor, it looks like. This kind of criminal thuggery is a Akhilesh Yadav/SP thing.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 03 Feb 2022 19:12

Could be a false flag op to unite peacefuls - in the images circulating on SM, presumed bullet holes to his car are few inches from the ground, not where one would aim if the intent was to injure/kill.

Also to tarnish Yogi's image as having tamed goonda raj and violence in UP.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 03 Feb 2022 20:33

Lest we forget, the idea of Pakistan was born in the heartlands of Oudh not Lahore. They never left India and will not stop till they achieve their dream.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 04 Feb 2022 00:24

No body is giving BJP more than 5 seats in punjab but I am seeing a steady stream of politicians joining BJP in punjab, some from congress which is expected to be the single largest party. What gives?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 04 Feb 2022 00:34

Prem Kumar wrote:Muslim vote consolidation en-masse behind SP. They're calling it the "West Bengal model"

https://swarajyamag.com/reports/no-more ... western-up

This single-agenda community is clear. Its the average Hindu voter who is confused. In UP, hopefully enough Hindus turn up to vote & get Yogi back to power. But in the long run, we need to solve the demographic problem

The demographic problem is that Hindus have been conditioned for decades to vote on caste/community lines rather than for tangible development benefits or as Hindus. Even MB could not have won in Bengal with only Muslim support.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 04 Feb 2022 04:11

https://twitter.com/Oye_Jahazi/status/1 ... 6026148867

Check the video of NDTV guy being trolled by a voter

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Feb 2022 06:49

nachiket wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:Muslim vote consolidation en-masse behind SP. They're calling it the "West Bengal model"

https://swarajyamag.com/reports/no-more ... western-up

This single-agenda community is clear. Its the average Hindu voter who is confused. In UP, hopefully enough Hindus turn up to vote & get Yogi back to power. But in the long run, we need to solve the demographic problem
The demographic problem is that Hindus have been conditioned for decades to vote on caste/community lines rather than for tangible development benefits or as Hindus. Even MB could not have won in Bengal with only Muslim support.

The largest number of internal migrants for work come from WB, more than even UP and Bihar due lack of Job Opportunities in WB, lock downs had a huge impact 20% of WB population, Modi got the blame for 2020 Lockdowns which had a huge impact on WB electilons

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 04 Feb 2022 06:55

If someone has a WB model, we have the Assam model. % of peaceful is Assam is more than WB.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 04 Feb 2022 07:42

hanumadu wrote:No body is giving BJP more than 5 seats in punjab but I am seeing a steady stream of politicians joining BJP in punjab, some from congress which is expected to be the single largest party. What gives?

Captain effect, although I'm not sure if BJP can do much here. But then, there is always the silent majority. My personal exp with Punjabi Hindus have been pretty deflating, they've internalized the Sikh supremacist messaging and do bakbak against RSS/BJP/Modi.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 04 Feb 2022 10:55

https://www.rediff.com/news/column/vire ... 220204.htm

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 04 Feb 2022 13:24

BJP will loose only

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Feb 2022 14:14

Opposition parties in UP are sponsoring to & fro travel costs to UP voters residing in other states to come and vote. Apparently TMC did the same in the last elections.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 04 Feb 2022 16:05

BJP will lose onlee.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Feb 2022 16:24

Owaisi gets a promotion in the form of Z category Security

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 04 Feb 2022 22:29

YSR regime in AP and KCR regime in Telangana - First thing they do is remove lakhs of middle class voters from the list in urban areas.

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 05 Feb 2022 01:04

Yogi ji facing a very tough challenge. The fight is not with akhilesh. It's with the too clever by half bjp base, which wants to send him a message, without him losing, of course. Only time will tell, if they end up letting akhilesh win and screw themselves in the process.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 05 Feb 2022 01:24

Aditya_V wrote:
The largest number of internal migrants for work come from WB, more than even UP and Bihar due lack of Job Opportunities in WB, lock downs had a huge impact 20% of WB population, Modi got the blame for 2020 Lockdowns which had a huge impact on WB electilons

seriously, this is utter nonsense.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Feb 2022 01:40

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/ground ... in-up-2022
Ground Report: Are Elections In Western UP Decided Completely By Jats? Will They Be Kingmakers In 'UP 2022'?

“Jayant Chaudhary aadmi achha hai par wo galat jagah haath milaliya hai (Jayant Chaudhary is a nice man but has made alliance with the wrong side)”, said Jaiveer Singh. Before he could make begin his next sentence, two others sitting there started talking how this election was not about Jayant being right or wrong, but about where their preference lies.

BJP for them was not their preference in these elections. They started debating among themselves over the “right” or “wrong” in Jayant’s new found company.

Those playing cards in lush green sugarcane and mustard fields though didn’t have much positive to add about Jayant’s politics, except the emotional connect they continue to have with his grandfather “Chaudhary (Charan Singh) Saheb”. Charan Singh died 35 years ago in 1987 but a good number of people from the Jat community still connect with him emotionally.

Such a response was not limited to those sitting and chatting in fields of Ailum village; many in the Jat community felt the same. Those who have decided vote against BJP aggressively try and silence those who wish to vote for it.

For some reason, a substantive section of them are angry with the BJP. They wouldn’t quite say why, but they are angry. They bring out a whole lot of issues ranging from price rise, unemployment, stray animal menace, delayed sugarcane payment, higher electricity tariff, delay in procuring fertilizer and farmer agitation. It was interesting to see that farmer agitation was generally not listed amongst the first or primary issues of concern or anger.

It was also clear that Akhilesh Yadav was not exactly their choice for the chief ministerial post. They were not very comfortable talking about him. Wounds of the Muzaffarnagar riots (2013) have not fully healed but they try and put that aside for reasons driving their recently acquired angst against the ruling party. No one says it in those many words but one gets the impression that the Jats or their fellow brethren who worked for the party didn’t get the attention they thought they deserved in last five years of the BJP government.

In Sarurpurkalan in Baghpat, Harpal Singh said “Rashtriya Lok Dal (led by Jayant Chaudhry) se jitna prem nahin usse jyada narajgi BJP se hai (love for RLD, an ally of Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party is not as much is dislike for BJP).

But it’s not a lost case for the BJP either. In each gathering over chai, tash and hukka, one would find some vocal supporters of for the BJP, no matter the protestations of those around. Also, it remains to be seen what happens in the areas where the Samajwadi Party candidate is contesting and not the RLD's. How would Jats eventually vote there?

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 05 Feb 2022 02:05

^^ Caste caste caste.
Shows how a large section of Hindu populace thinks, no wonder it's so easy for any Tom, Dick and Harry to divide and rule for thousand years. Luckily Dalits are backing BJP so the damage is minimal.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 05 Feb 2022 08:25

^^ That's also due to the way democracy works - if the mass wants only caste-based politics, that's exactly what they'll get. If the mass wants darkness and goonda raj, they'll get that too. Question is, how big is this mass and what exactly do they want? Only the elections will tell, all these opinion polls, "ground reports", etc. are not good enough - we saw what happened in WB.

How UP votes in this election will decide its (and that of the Hindi heartland's) future trajectory for the next few decades.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 05 Feb 2022 08:39

^ Jats are just 1.2% in UP, so how can they be deciding force on who will form the next Govt in UP?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Feb 2022 09:17

Manish_Sharma wrote:^ Jats are just 1.2% in UP, so how can they be deciding force on who will form the next Govt in UP?

They may be concentrated in western UP.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 05 Feb 2022 10:20

vimal wrote:^^ Caste caste caste.
Shows how a large section of Hindu populace thinks, no wonder it's so easy for any Tom, Dick and Harry to divide and rule for thousand years. Luckily Dalits are backing BJP so the damage is minimal.

Hindus are typically blind as a bat, and will deliberately create conditions for their persecution. Unable to see the larger picture. Typically, their awareness level doesn't extend beyond a 20 km radius of their own house. What is happening in the rest of the country doesn't register in their brain, neither have they any interest. In contrast, Muslims in Mumbai will riot on some Muslim issue in Myanmar.

For some reason, a substantive section of them are angry with the BJP. They wouldn’t quite say why, but they are angry.

Angry with BJP for no reason, but will grovel in front of parties which prioritize Muslims over Hindus. They cannot explain why they are angry, but they remain angry.

Same story before Independence when Hindus remained "angry" with Savarkar for some mysterious reason, but grovelled in front of Gandhi and Nehru who did not hide the fact that they will always side with Muslims in any battle. The result: thousands of Hindu wives and daughters dragged to Pakistan as sex slaves, but Hindus remained "angry" with Savarkar and Hindu Mahasabha. Now they remain angry with BJP, and are trying their best to get some Muslim-loving party to power so that they can go back to living as second-class citizens again.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 05 Feb 2022 10:24

Beautifully put, only thing is too many brave have died in the last 1000 years protecting Cunning and weak with surrender mentality. We must get our such minded people to move out and experience the Paki Taliban ISIS rule.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 05 Feb 2022 16:51

BJP will lose only.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 05 Feb 2022 20:34

Manish_Sharma wrote:^ Jats are just 1.2% in UP, so how can they be deciding force on who will form the next Govt in UP?

Are you sure?

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 05 Feb 2022 21:27

Manish_Sharma wrote:^ Jats are just 1.2% in UP, so how can they be deciding force on who will form the next Govt in UP?

But they have strong presence in some districts with 10-40% population. So they can decide a number of outcomes in Western UP.

The video i had shared earlier from the grounds of UP also reached similar conclusions wrt Jats and in general for the election. When caste/communities that are better off, need constant mollycoddling or incentives to vote for BJP. In other words they become “secular” at the earliest instance. Dalits are with BJP because Yogi has been able to provide things like security, rations and other aids that went straight to peacefuls or Yadavs under SP rule.

While Yogi has been Sucessful with Big Bang items like infrastructure and law and order, impact has been muted at best at the smaller towns and villages for a middle class person. BJPs ground level game and advertisements are also seen as lackluster this time. Time to learn from Kejriwal.

TLDR; This election will be decided by NOTA, Dalit and Peacefuls.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 06 Feb 2022 08:07

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Feb 2022 14:21

Ajit Singh and Jayanth Singh did not do well in elections in recent times. There is nothing to suggest RLD will be better this time around. SP and RLD may look good on paper but many who are contesting on RLD ticket are in reality SP people. Plus BSP,SP, RLD and INC tried all kinds of permutations and conditionals in the last 3 elections (2 LS and 2 Assembly) and BJP still managed to beat them with a large margin.

1. If BSP is becoming weak - then other than its momo voters rest hate SP and will move towards BJP only
2. Western UP does not have large Yadav votes and Jats are not shown any keen to vote enmass to SP in the earlier elections.
3 So called emotional connection with Jats will vanish the minute you remember Muzzaffar Nagar.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 07 Feb 2022 18:11

What are the probabilities of secular & liberal+farmer broker gang coming up with some nefarious trick a day or two before the elections? Some kind of an emotive issue which can swing people's opinion? Dakait etc are past masters in this trick.