Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[mody]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Da3_OXJDsw8

Trying to decode the mystery of the downing of the Russian A-50s.

[IndraD]

another Russian warship sunk in Black Sea, says Ukrainian intelligence https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... es-germany

Nato trying to neutralise gains on ground with attacks in sea & air

[srai]

^^^
Here are various footage from different sea drones and someone on another ship

[srai]

View from Russian crew desperately trying to destroy sea drones … to no avail. Small caliber guns useless.

[IndraD]

Ukraine war: Eastern residents brace for Russian advance
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68493215

In February, Russia captured the strategic town of Avdiivka. Since then, the invaders have advanced further west, and taken several villages.

Ukraine says its forces are "holding on". But Russian troops are now attacking in five areas along the 1,100km (700 mile) front line.

People in cities like Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk are now facing a fast-approaching front line, and even occupation.

You can hear heavy fire from as far as 40 km away, so the distant sound of artillery is constant. From one vantage point you can see the erosion of Ukrainian territory.

Plumes of smoke come from the directions of Avdiivka, a town Russia has recently taken, and Horlivka, which it's controlled since 2014.

Russia is using its size, air superiority and deeper ammunition reserves to keep pushing, at a time when Western military aid to Ukraine is running low or being held up by domestic politics.
Across the front line there is a small minority of people labelled as "Zhdun" by the Ukrainians. It's a derogatory word which means "waiters", referring to those who are pro-Russian and waiting to be occupied.

hould its Russian invaders gain more momentum in the Donetsk region, the question of where they will stop will be increasingly difficult to answer.

[mody]

Some sites are reporting Russia destroyed 2 Patriot batteries recently. Any confirmation on this?

[Lisa]

https://twitter.com/warvehicle/status/1 ... MNMIWOmsAQ

[putnanja]

Russia Resurrects Soviet-Era Bombs to Gain Edge in Ukraine Conflict

In the midst of escalating military losses, the Kremlin is deploying some of its most formidable weapons. In an effort to cut production costs, Russia is reaching back into its Soviet-era arsenal, retrofitting old weapons with new capabilities. The FAB-1500 bomb, the subject of recent reports, weighs as much as a car, boasts high precision, and instills terror among Ukrainian soldiers. According to a recent CNN report, Kyiv finds itself nearly defenseless against this threat.
...

[Rakesh]

Ukraine — Mired In Strategic Blunders Like Hitler In 1943
https://swarajyamag.com/world/ukraine-m ... er-in-1943
10 March 2024

[srai]

^^^

…
Ukraine’s declared objective is to evict Russia from all the territory it claims as Ukrainian, including the Crimea, while Russia has the simple objective of demilitarising Ukraine and preventing it from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
…

I don’t think Russian objectives are “simple”. Military support from NATO countries were not expected. NATO has expanded with Finland and Sweden joining. By failing to quickly overtake Ukraine (within few weeks), Russia is now stuck in a quagmire. It too has tremendous losses in manpower and equipment.

In fact, every year the war prolongs Ukrainian military is becoming more and more “NATO like”. All their equipment and tactics increasingly reflect NATO.

In any case, too much conclusions drawn too early. The fight has not ended yet. Let’s wait till it’s over before conclusive analysis. We don’t know the final outcomes just yet.

[Pratyush]

Srai,

The larger Russian agenda is to rework the post 1991 security architecture in Europe. Into a more equitable, balanced and more stable system.

When it comes to Ukraine, it is to make sure that it doesn't become a part of NATO. The evidence of the seriousness of Russian desire to prevent Ukraine joining NATO has come from several sources. Including Ukranians themselves.

https://www.intellinews.com/top-ukraini ... 22-302876/

Published on November 26, 2023

Quoting from the article.

[The Russians] were ready to end the war if we accepted neutrality like Finland once did. And we would make a commitment that we would not join Nato. When we returned from Istanbul Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said: “We will not sign anything with them at all and let’s just go to war,” Arestovych said.

Having said that, the expansion of NATO into Scandinavian nations is a temporary setback. If ultimately NATO is disbanded. Then it would not matter ultimately.

[srai]

^^^
How will NATO be disbanded? It has reawakened. They are basically fighting the war using Ukraine as a proxy.

That is why this war will be a long fought one.

[Cyrano]

If Trump gets elected. Still won't be easy.

[Manish_P]

If Trump gets elected. Still won't be easy.

Trump can and will do only so much. At the moment he is just being Imraned. If he strays too much he might get JFKed. And he knows it.

[Pratyush]

^^^
How will NATO be disbanded? It has reawakened. They are basically fighting the war using Ukraine as a proxy.

That is why this war will be a long fought one.

Continental Europe has it's centre of gravity. The US thinks that with the eastward expansion of NATO, it has shifted to Poland. With the UK acting as the offshore balancer.

There is a limit to how much pain and economic costs can be born by Germany and France. The Germans are reaching the threshold and the French are not that far behind.

I see the Europeans splitting in 2 blocks. With one block consisting of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Hungary, Romania Looking at cordial relations with Russia.

The second block of Poland, and UK, and the remainder of the states. Propped by USA from accross the pond.

Give it time.

[Cyrano]

For the moment the belligerent talk of Macron has found some support from Poland which covets some eastern Ukraine territory, Tchèque république, Moldova which risks losing Transnistria, and the three Baltic States that are perpetually crying wolf.

Rest of EU/NATO countries haven't supported whatever it takes including troops on the ground statements of Macron, who has nevertheless gone ahead and signed a 10 year pact with Elenski.

Germany, US have disowned Macron completely. Other Western EU states have mostly kept mum

It's hard to imagine any future reconfig of EU/NATO with France and Germany on the same side if there is no strong US involvement to keep both inline.

[Aditya_V]

German Eco nomic distress, followed by Miltary Modernization, Poland being belligerent against the USSR, with Britain scuttling all the post World war 1 agreements.

A lot of people dont realize that what Munich agreement 1938 was not just so called peace with Hitler but destroyed the French USSR- Chechozslavak agreement in place, Poland refused to allow USSR troops to transit and confront Germany at that time. Stalin was a Monster but lets not pretend the Poles and UK were innocent.

Some of the powers in their quest for absolute dominance seem to want gamble away everything.

[IndraD]

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukrai ... eblog-body

Russia 'jams signal' on plane carrying Grant Shapps - report
Russia is believed to have jammed the satellite signal on an aircraft used by defence minister Grant Shapps to travel from Poland back to Britain, a government source and journalists travelling with him have told Reuters.

It has been reported that the GPS signal was interfered with for about 30 minutes while the plane flew close to Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad.

Mobile phones could no longer connect to the internet and the aircraft was forced to use alternative methods to determine its location, they said.

Mr Shapps is today conducting a day trip to eastern Europe to meet UK troops taking part in Exercise Steadfast Defender.

[drnayar]

Is a nuclear war closer than we think ?!

the scale of western lies..is just crazy !

[VishnuS]

In fact, every year the war prolongs Ukrainian military is becoming more and more “NATO like”. All their equipment and tactics increasingly reflect NATO.
.

Srai Bhai, I don't think that's the case. Becoming a NATO army means adoption of NATO Tactics and maybe NATO Equipment.

That's not the case. None of the NATO trained brigades are at full strength, Most of the NATO trained brigades were destroyed in the counter attack happened in the last year.

Most of the NATO Equipment is destroyed, except for SAM systems and few pieces of ground equipment.

No more training is happening under the guidance of NATO.

I'd say it would be better for everyone if NATO can come to some compromise with Russia. If this goes in 2025, then Russian force would be as good as it was at the end of WW2 and NATO would be nowhere near.

Weapon stocks were emptied in all NATO and many neutral countries. Shortage of Artillery and ATGMs is a bloody good example.

But lets wait for another couple of months, I believe US will find some compromise by end of September.

[srai]

^^^
Let’s wait and see. No predictions from me. It’s too complex to predict the outcomes just yet.

[Cyrano]

Yesterday Macron gave an incoherent prime time TV "interview". When asked what will the billions promised to Ukraine do, he said they will be used to produce munitions locally. When asked won't these factories get bombed too, he said that's why France and Europe need to move to a 'war economy' mode to produce munitions on war footing. When asked but what ever we produce will not last a day while Russia will fire and produce 10x more munitions and they are already doing it, he said that's why they ie EU will once again scour the planet for all available munitions that the Ukrainian forces can use... Bla blah

For all the belligerent talk, NATO countries have totally miscalculated Russian preparedness, response and it's ability to bounce back. They counted on sanctions crippling Russia and thought they can ban the entire world from buying Russian oil and trading anything with Russia.

No talk of magic bullets like F16s or Mirages or Leopards or missiles to 'defeat' Roos anymore. Therefore the talk of putting boots on the ground 'officially' hoping Roos won't dare attack NATO troops.

Up the creek with no face savers in sight.

[VishnuS]

If Trump gets elected. Still won't be easy.

Trump can and will do only so much. At the moment he is just being Imraned. If he strays too much he might get JFKed. And he knows it.

I don't think Trump would be JFKed, there are red lines even for the CIA.

CIA can do anything they please till the trust in the system exists. As of now, there is suspicion, at least I would say that the trust hasn't eroded completely. If Trump gets killed, then that's it. The repercussions would be far greater than we can estimate. If Trump loses than what we saw on Jan 6th would be nothing compared to what will happen!!

[VishnuS]

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukrai ... eblog-body

Russia 'jams signal' on plane carrying Grant Shapps - report
Russia is believed to have jammed the satellite signal on an aircraft used by defence minister Grant Shapps to travel from Poland back to Britain, a government source and journalists travelling with him have told Reuters.

It has been reported that the GPS signal was interfered with for about 30 minutes while the plane flew close to Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad.

Mobile phones could no longer connect to the internet and the aircraft was forced to use alternative methods to determine its location, they said.

Mr Shapps is today conducting a day trip to eastern Europe to meet UK troops taking part in Exercise Steadfast Defender.

This is a serious escalation if this is true. Plus Russia gains nothing by threatening Poland. They're the right wing guys.... If anything, I'd blame CIA for this misadventure

[Manish_P]

I don't think Trump would be JFKed, there are red lines even for the CIA.

CIA can do anything they please till the trust in the system exists. As of now, there is suspicion, at least I would say that the trust hasn't eroded completely...

Maybe. Then again JFK was a popular president and not seen as pally towards the Soviets whereas Trump...

[srai]

Ukrainian MiG-29

• AGM-88 HARM
• JDAM
• AASM

HARM


JDAM


AASM

[Aditya_V]

Ukranian Mig 29 and any MiG 29 USA NATOhave been able to acquire since Feb 22, Su 24 have been carrying every type of Western ordinance for a long time. Russia has bombed and created holes in Runways. But the Mig 29 with short takeoff and ability to use ventral intakes after closing the main
intakes have kept them in business. Plus they have shown ability yo quickly take off once Western satellite/ AWACS detect Kaliber missiles are on the way.

I don't think any Western Aircraft with sensitive electronics can operate in these conditions, that's why the F16, Eurofighters have been kept away while uber sensitive stuff like Scalp/ Storm Shadow are being used. Both sides are developing their cutting edge tech here.

[nachiket]

Nothing to do with sensitive electronics and everything to do with the fact that Ukraine already has plenty of pilots fully qualified on Mig-29s and none on F-16's or any other western fighter. It is far easier to integrate new weapons on an old aircraft and train the pilots to use them rather than train and qualify them on a completely new aircraft type.

[srai]

^^^

Ukrainian AF still training and setting up infrastructure to support F-16s. The first ones will be in service around mid-2024. It will likely be later half of 2025 before Ukrainian AF can fully realize its capabilities in combat and in quantities.

So far 3-squadrons worth promised. One squadron of around 18-20 F-16s each by these countries:

• Denmark
• Netherlands
• Norway

These countries are in the process of replacing their F-16s with F-35. Netherlands and Norway could supply further 4 squadrons in the future.

Belgium is another F-16 operator that is switching over to F-35. It would be in a position to donate 2-squadrons.


Between these 4 countries, they could eventually be in a position to donate up to 9 squadrons (180 units) of F-16s to Ukraine over the next few years.

[Aditya_V]

Integrating western Weapons on to Su 24 or Mig 29's is not an overnight job, it has been done with Plans from 2015. If it was required and NATO feels it would have made a difference by now F-16s would be flying for Ukraine, Ukranians would have been trained in USA UK on Maintenance, flying F-16's etc. Experienced well qualified flying crew- in 2 years it would have definitely been done. Even rookie crew and Pilots would have been done. It has nothing to do with escalation etc, they have crossed all Red lines.

The reason it has not happened is the countries that Manufacture the F-16, Eurofighter etc dont like to see pics of crashed or destroyed F-16's or Eurofighters. They have been deliberately kept away from Harms way. The will fielded if they felt Russian AAM's or SAM in the Air or Russian CM/ Drones/ Ballistic missiles cannot target them on the ground.

Whatever MIG 29's, SU-24 Ukrainians fly today have Western avionics and Western weapons. I will not be surprised if a Western AESA radar has been integrated as well.

[sanman]

If Trump gets elected. Still won't be easy.

Trump can and will do only so much. At the moment he is just being Imraned. If he strays too much he might get JFKed. And he knows it.

Deep State won't JFK the Donald when they have other weapons available -- like all the corrupt "mainstream media" in USA, or like the corrupt US Congress, or like all the crooked Obama judicial appointees, or like all the activist street thugs from the fascist anarcho-leftists, and all the big tech social media monopolies who've colluded in useful ways.

[nachiket]

Integrating western Weapons on to Su 24 or Mig 29's is not an overnight job, it has been done with Plans from 2015. If it was required and NATO feels it would have made a difference by now F-16s would be flying for Ukraine, Ukranians would have been trained in USA UK on Maintenance, flying F-16's etc. Experienced well qualified flying crew- in 2 years it would have definitely been done. Even rookie crew and Pilots would have been done. It has nothing to do with escalation etc, they have crossed all Red lines.

The reason it has not happened is the countries that Manufacture the F-16, Eurofighter etc dont like to see pics of crashed or destroyed F-16's or Eurofighters. They have been deliberately kept away from Harms way. The will fielded if they felt Russian AAM's or SAM in the Air or Russian CM/ Drones/ Ballistic missiles cannot target them on the ground.

Well I'm sure those countries do not like seeing images of destroyed Leopard and Abrams tanks, Bradley IFV's, Caeser SPH etc. but they sent those anyway. Training pilots on a completely new aircraft type takes time. Doing it in the middle of the war is a lot more difficult since those pilots would be unavailable for combat postings for the duration of training. Not to mention that the air-forces of these donor countries were themselves not giddy about giving up their own aircraft before the replacements (F-35's) had arrived. But it looks like they might send a few anyway now.

Whatever MIG 29's, SU-24 Ukrainians fly today have Western avionics and Western weapons. I will not be surprised if a Western AESA radar has been integrated as well.

Doing a deep radar+avionics upgrade on a fighter jet is not a trivial process. Do you think Ukraine can afford to have their aircraft taken out of the rotation for an extended period of time in the middle of the war? Furthermore, none of the weapons in the pics above - AASM, JDAM and HARM strictly require integration with the aircraft's radar. AASM and JDAM are GPS/INS guided and the HARM can be used in "missile as sensor" mode without the need of something like the HTS (harm targeting system) pod. They would require some integration with the aircraft's cockpit avionics and navigation system perhaps but that would be faster to accomplish and can be done in the field with the help of US and French technicians. Some of the weapons' most accurate modes will not be available but it is better than nothing. On the other hand, notice that you do not see those Mig-29's carrying AMRAAMs for instance which would be impossible without integration with the radar. If they had a western radar as you claim you would definitely see them carrying a much wide variety of western weapons, especially air-to-air ones and the Ukrainians would not be so desperate for F-16's either.

[srai]

sanman, you sound like MAGA believer. Same sound bites repeated over and over again.

[IndraD]

France is preparing to deploy 2,000 troops to Ukraine to help fight Russia, Director of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service says https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/1770092722637902119?s=20

[IndraD]

https://iview.abc.net.au/show/four-corn ... 403H005S00
Australia channel has done a video from Russia side of front line detailing casualities on 2 sides, morale, combat tactics and much more ..

Ukraine is livid and has asked Aus to stop broadcast or Uncle Biden will be deal with them

The Ukrainian ambassador to Canberra has demanded a meeting with the management of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation after it aired a documentary about the Ukraine conflict that wasn’t to his liking.

On Monday evening, the ABC showed British filmmaker Sean Langan’s documentary ‘Ukraine’s War: The Other Side’, featuring Russian soldiers and civilians in the Donbass.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday morning, Ambassador Vasily Myroshnychenko called the program “the journalistic equivalent of a bowl of vomit” and claimed it “unquestioningly repeated and aired countless blatant lies, historical distortions, racist claims and propaganda narratives emanating from the Kremlin.”

The ABC “should be ashamed that it put such total garbage to air,” added Myroshnychenko, accusing Langan’s documentary of serving the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organisations chimed in as well, claiming the film featured “gross lies, hate and genocidal intentions” that caused them distress. The AFUO accused Langan of “fist-bumping, handshaking, hugging and smiling alongside Russian soldiers” and conducting “unchallenged interviews.”


Kiev’s ambassador demanded a meeting with the ABC management in order to “understand what process led to the airing of this pro-Putin and pro-violence propaganda piece” and “share with them the facts that the program totally disregarded.”

Australia’s Minister for Communications Michelle Rowland reportedly forwarded Myroshnychenko’s request to the broadcaster.

ABC has publicly responded to Ukrainian protests by defending the documentary as an important contribution to understanding the conflict.

“Ukraine’s War: The Other Side is a challenging but legitimate documentary, made by reputable journalist Sean Langan and first aired last month on the UK’s ITV, that offers a rare insight into the lives of Russian soldiers during the war,” an ABC spokesperson said. “We believe Australian audiences also have the right to watch it and make up their own minds.”

Canberra has followed Washington’s lead in backing Kiev, sending more than $600 million of weapons and ammunition, including howitzers and Bushmaster armored vehicles. However, Australia has drawn the line at fighter jets and helicopters, choosing to decommission them instead.

Ukraine’s government has sought to crack down on any deviations from its narrative in the West about the conflict with Russia. In August 2022, Kiev attacked the US outlet CBS News over a report about some Western military aid going missing. The outlet quickly caved and deleted its documentary.

https://www.rt.com/news/594499-ukraine- ... ensorship/

[IndraD]

Ukraine’s losses ‘in the millions’ – retired Polish general
Kiev does not have the resources or manpower to continue the fight against Russia, Rajmund Andrzejczak has said

he Ukrainians are losing this war,” Andrzejczak stated, pointing to media reports suggesting that Kiev is running out of anti-aircraft missiles to protect itself from Russian strikes.

Echoing warnings from several Western leaders in recent weeks, Andrzejczak called for arms production to be boosted and argued that the West should prepare for a full-scale conflict with Russia within two or three years. Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted that Moscow has no plans or interest in attacking NATO.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated last month that Ukraine had lost more than 444,000 troops since the start of the conflict in February 2022. The hostilities have also triggered an exodus of Ukrainian refugees, with almost 6.5 million recorded worldwide, according to UN data.

Officials in Kiev have repeatedly complained that Western arms shipments have been inadequate. Those calls have grown louder as US President Joe Biden’s request to provide an additional $60 billion in aid remains stalled in Congress, due to Republican demands to strengthen American border security.

Kiev is also mulling a new mobilization bill that would lower the minimum draft age for men from 27 to 25, with reported plans to send 500,000 new troops to the frontline.

Against this backdrop, the Russian military last month pushed Kiev out of the strategic Donbass city of Avdeevka, also liberating several nearby settlements. The former stronghold has been on the front line since 2014 and was frequently used by Kiev to shell residential blocks in the nearby city of Donetsk.
https://www.rt.com/news/594486-ukraine-losses-millions/

[Arima]

France is preparing to deploy 2,000 troops to Ukraine to help fight Russia, Director of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service says https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/1770092722637902119?s=20

Macron is new Napoleon waiting to get clobbered in Ukraine

[srai]

It is a given that small teams of NATO Special Forces have been active on the ground for a long time. SF are pretty much involved in every conflict. They offer deniability while projecting influence and effective outcomes.

[Roop]

Well I'm sure those countries ... were themselves not giddy about giving up their own aircraft before the replacements (F-35's) had arrived. But it looks like they might send a few anyway now.

I think there is an obvious reason why NATO would not want to do this, i.e. send high-political-impact weapons to Ukraine. (In calling this "obvious", I am assuming -- perhaps naively -- that there are at least a couple of high-ranking political leaders in NATO countries who still have functioning brains).

That reason is this: all the leadership of Ukr have shown conclusively that they are reckless and irresponsible beyond belief. Slavic Pakis, really. You send them these weapons and there is a virtual guarantee that they will use them to conduct spectacular, suicidal and tactically-irrelevant attacks on Russian targets, i.e. on Russia proper, not the parts of eastern Ukr that Russia formally annexed. What if a couple of F16s managed to evade Russian air defences and launch a successful attack on Rostov, for example? This hypothetical is not far-fetched at all -- no country's air defences are perfect and Rostov is just a few minutes' flying time from the Rus-Ukr border.

What then? Putin would certainly feel (and would IMO actually be) justified in launching retaliatory strikes against NATO countires. In this hypothetical scenario, we could soon see Russian missile / precision-bomb strikes against air bases in Germany / France / Poland. And the Ukies would be celebrating and high-fiving, because this was what they'd always wanted for years, long before Feb 2022.

[srai]

^^^
F-16s are coming. First batch will be in Ukraine in July-2024. Ukrainian AF have been training for a year now in various EU countries, including Romania.

There are plenty of F-16s in EU (over 200) and it is very likely most of them will end up in Ukraine over this decade.