Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[srai]

What happened to Russian air superiority over Ukrainian skies??? What the hell happened to Russian Air Force?

Where is Western air superiority? This war has been dragging on for 2+ years now. Why has the West - led by Amreeka - not been able to overwhelm Russian forces in Ukraine? Why is Russia still in this fight? Why is Putin allowed to continue this war? An entire generation of Ukrainians are no longer alive due to Zelensky's stupidity.

If you read the earlier version of this thread, you had MUTUs claiming that Russia would be overrun and defeated in a matter of a few weeks. That India had made a strategic blunder by aligning itself with Russia. All Russian-origin arms in India would face a similar ignominious defeat at the hands of the Chinese. Only a military alliance with Amreeka would save India from the Chinese horde.

Ab Kya Hua?

Russia had the opportunity for a quick win (within few weeks/months) at the opening phase two years ago. But they underestimated how many troops they actually required.

The whole Russia-Ukraine conflict has been going on for more than a decade already. Last two years have been a full fledged war.

Now it has become a war of attrition and who will outlast whom. Both sides not backing down. I don’t see a resolution anytime soon.

[IndraD]

Abram tanks to Humvees lined up in Moscow for selfie and parade

[IndraD]

BBC meltdown

[IndraD]

one more

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1785390248358257124 ---> The effectiveness of American 155mm M982 Excalibur precision-guided shells decreased from 70% to 6%, within six weeks due to the adaptation of Russian EW systems.

Source: Report of Daniel Patt, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, to the US House of Representatives.

[Haresh]

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1785390248358257124 ---> The effectiveness of American 155mm M982 Excalibur precision-guided shells decreased from 70% to 6%, within six weeks due to the adaptation of Russian EW systems.

Source: Report of Daniel Patt, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, to the US House of Representatives.

Just a question out of curiosity. Is it possible to attach "wings" of some sort, a guidance system onto 155mm artillery rounds and turn them into glide bombs ?
Has it been tried by anyone ?
Just curious

[srai]

Better to move politics to the other Geopolitical thread. It’s a never ending circular arguments that convinces only those who are already convinced

Getting back to topic of military combat tactics and tech…

Developments going on both ways:
Counter Drone
Counter-Counter Drone

Ukraine rolls out domestic PARASOL system against Russian drones

…

The PARASOL has two variants:

PARASOL 01 protects ground positions from drone attacks at up to 200 meters range.

PARASOL 02 safeguards vehicles against drones within 200 meters.

UK firm upgrades Ukraine drones to outwit Russian jamming

…
A British firm called Evolve Dynamics is working on upgrades that could counter Russia’s electronic warfare capabilities against Ukraine’s reconnaissance drones, Reuters reported on 28 March.

“It’s a constant ping-pong game between adversaries,” said Mike Dewhirst, the company’s chief executive.

By developing alternative radio link algorithms, Evolve Dynamics aims to make it harder for Russia to jam signals controlling Ukraine’s surveillance drones.
…

[Manish_P]

..
Just a question out of curiosity. Is it possible to attach "wings" of some sort, a guidance system onto 155mm artillery rounds and turn them into glide bombs ?
Has it been tried by anyone ?
Just curious

Possible - yes
Tried by anyone - yes, the US is experimenting.

General Atomics Long Range Maneuvering Projectile

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... le-update/

apologies for the large image. Request help to resize it

[sanman]

..
Just a question out of curiosity. Is it possible to attach "wings" of some sort, a guidance system onto 155mm artillery rounds and turn them into glide bombs ?
Has it been tried by anyone ?
Just curious

Possible - yes
Tried by anyone - yes, the US is experimenting.

General Atomics Long Range Maneuvering Projectile

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... le-update/

India is developing ramjet-propelled artillery which extends the range. I read they're trying up to 140mm or something like that, but not 155mm
(apparently, all Indian artillery is being standardized around this smaller size, which is below 155mm)

I wonder if ramjet-artillery can be further improved with glide-bomb capability?

[pravula]

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1785390248358257124 ---> The effectiveness of American 155mm M982 Excalibur precision-guided shells decreased from 70% to 6%, within six weeks due to the adaptation of Russian EW systems.

Source: Report of Daniel Patt, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, to the US House of Representatives.

Just a question out of curiosity. Is it possible to attach "wings" of some sort, a guidance system onto 155mm artillery rounds and turn them into glide bombs ?
Has it been tried by anyone ?
Just curious

Excalibur and similar systems have gps guidance. Ramjet is also being developed for additional range. Theoretically they will have “wings” aka control surfaces.

Added later: In Ukraine, SDBs were mounted on rockets and were called Ground Launched SDBs. Apparently they were heavily jammed and not accurate anymore

[pravula]

Possible - yes
Tried by anyone - yes, the US is experimenting.

General Atomics Long Range Maneuvering Projectile

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... le-update/

India is developing ramjet-propelled artillery which extends the range. I read they're trying up to 140mm or something like that, but not 155mm
(apparently, all Indian artillery is being standardized around this smaller size, which is below 155mm)

I wonder if ramjet-artillery can be further improved with glide-bomb capability?

India, afaik, is standardizing on 155mm, not 140mm

[srai]

^^^

Standardizing on “universal” 155mm size better for obvious reasons. Easy to import and export.

[Rakesh]

Ukraine is on the brink, says a senior general
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/0 ... or-general
02 May 2024

An interview with Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence.

[srai]

Update on Ukraine F-16s. First lot will be 12 pilots and 6 aircraft (of 45). Pilots, comprising both experienced pilots and young pilots, have undergone 6-10 months of intensive crash course in half the time.




Ukraine to protect future F-16 fleet by dispersing it in underground bunkers

Ukraine is set to protect its future F-16 fleet using strategic underground bunkers and dispersal tactics, complicating Russian efforts to locate these aircraft. This approach includes significant investments in infrastructure.
…
After the United States approved last fall, countries including the Netherlands, Denmark, and Romania are helping train Ukrainian F-16 pilots to counter Russia’s air superiority. Currently, twelve Ukrainian pilots are being trained in Denmark, Britain, and the US, and are expected to be combat-ready this summer. However, upon their return, only about six of the promised 45 F-16s from European allies may have been delivered, as per media reports.
…

There is also the possibility for neighboring Poland and Romania to house the F-16s. Ukrainian AF then could deploy some to forward dispersed locations in Ukraine for frontline operations. In this way, Russia won’t be able to target many F-16s on the ground.

The ones based in Poland and Romania could be used for air defense against massed Russia long-range strikes where the F-16s would shoot down drones and cruise missiles attacking Western Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

NATO countries provide Ukraine with strategic depth that is safe from Russian attacks. Increasingly, NATO removing restrictions on how their weapons can be leveraged.

IMO, it will take at least 2-years for the Ukrainian pilots to master these F-16s. Let’s see how they perform initially.

[YashG]

Recent release from Zelensky claimed russia is throwing 3200 fabs / month on Ukraine.
= 100 fabs a day.

What is the avg casaulty that one Fab inflicts ? This will give us a good way to know number of soldiers ukraine is losing every month.

Lets say one fab kills 3 or 5 soldiers. Could be more. I would like someone to help me understand this.
So at avg 3-5; fabs alone are killing 300 -500. That would mean if fab are accounting for 50% of casaulties. ukraine is losing 600-1000 soldiers a day.

[Deans]

Recent release from Zelensky claimed russia is throwing 3200 fabs / month on Ukraine.
= 100 fabs a day.

What is the avg casaulty that one Fab inflicts ? This will give us a good way to know number of soldiers ukraine is losing every month.

Lets say one fab kills 3 or 5 soldiers. Could be more. I would like someone to help me understand this.
So at avg 3-5; fabs alone are killing 300 -500. That would mean if fab are accounting for 50% of casaulties. ukraine is losing 600-1000 soldiers a day.

Since Jan, about 1000 irrecoverable casualties per day (dead, POW and wounded who cannot return to active duty) from all causes across the front.
My blogpost on casualty trends was written in March, but the trend has continued in April. 111000 irrecoverable casualties in 2024, till 30 April
(the Russian MOD figures are broken down by day and sector, so some thought goes into it).
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/03/uk ... years.html

[Deans]

Recent release from Zelensky claimed russia is throwing 3200 fabs / month on Ukraine.
= 100 fabs a day.

What is the avg casaulty that one Fab inflicts ? This will give us a good way to know number of soldiers ukraine is losing every month.

Lets say one fab kills 3 or 5 soldiers. Could be more. I would like someone to help me understand this.
So at avg 3-5; fabs alone are killing 300 -500. That would mean if fab are accounting for 50% of casaulties. ukraine is losing 600-1000 soldiers a day.

The constraint is not the number of bombs (more than 100 /day are available), but the number of aircraft that can carry the bombs.

[YashG]

Recent release from Zelensky claimed russia is throwing 3200 fabs / month on Ukraine.
= 100 fabs a day.

What is the avg casaulty that one Fab inflicts ? This will give us a good way to know number of soldiers ukraine is losing every month.

Lets say one fab kills 3 or 5 soldiers. Could be more. I would like someone to help me understand this.
So at avg 3-5; fabs alone are killing 300 -500. That would mean if fab are accounting for 50% of casaulties. ukraine is losing 600-1000 soldiers a day.

The constraint is not the number of bombs (more than 100 /day are available), but the number of aircraft that can carry the bombs.

yes and also ISR. All targets are not suitable for fab lobbing.

But fab destruction radius is 250 mts. Most likely russia is lobbing them at hardened position with 5-10 men. Usually three fabs arrive. two on target an done astrays.

Casualty = KIA + WIA

So assuming 60-70% fab strikes are good. 0.65 x 5 casaulty per strike, gives me 330. ~ 3.5 casaulty per fab strike. So 100 fabs = 350 fab casaulties / Day.

Now if we assume this breakup - 35% Fab; 35% Artillery, Mortar etc.; 15% FPVs+ Lancets etc.; 15% All others: infantry strike, helicopter LMURs, ATGMs, Tanks, BTR.

Gives: 350 Casaulties by Fabs, 350 by Artillery and so on...
~ 1000 / Day

[Arima]

...

russia would attack air base if launched from nato air bases outside Ukr. this is a red line which NATO wont cross.
F16 has to take off from ukr for any action. anyway russkies will attack the moment f16 cross into ukr.

[srai]

^^^
Many “red lines” have already been crossed

UK has now removed restrictions on its Storm Shadow LRCM being used against military targets inside Russia. France has mentioned they will send in troops if Ukrainian lines get breached.

[MeshaVishwas]

Most captured vehicles are riddled with bullet holes.

The variety (and age) is mind numbing.

Also, seeing the turnout, I think the US and NATO influence ops against Russians have been a massive failure.

[sanman]

Russia has modified their tanks into "turtle tanks"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Twnkug2_mZc

[YashG]

Russia still does armored attacks and then loses armor to fpvs and artillery. It is so predictable.

[YashG]

The constraint is not the number of bombs (more than 100 /day are available), but the number of aircraft that can carry the bombs.

yes and also ISR. All targets are not suitable for fab lobbing.

But fab destruction radius is 250 mts. Most likely russia is lobbing them at hardened position with 5-10 men. Usually three fabs arrive. two on target an done astrays.

Casualty = KIA + WIA

So assuming 60-70% fab strikes are good. 0.65 x 5 casaulty per strike, gives me 330. ~ 3.5 casaulty per fab strike. So 100 fabs = 350 fab casaulties / Day.

Now if we assume this breakup - 35% Fab; 35% Artillery, Mortar etc.; 15% FPVs+ Lancets etc.; 15% All others: infantry strike, helicopter LMURs, ATGMs, Tanks, BTR.

Gives: 350 Casaulties by Fabs, 350 by Artillery and so on...
~ 1000 / Day

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/17 ... 3756926032

Russian PGMs are a major issue for Ukrainian personnel on the line of contact and in rear staging positions. Over 100 Russian glide bombs are used across the frontline daily but the results of any given strike are obscured by Ukrainian censorship, as they control information near the front. We could be talking about 1000s of additional weekly casualties from specifically Fab-250/500 alone

Even if we talk about 2500 Weekly fab casulty. 350 (like i estimated above) x 7 = 2400. So one independent figure collates in same direction for above analysis.

[sanman]

Russia still does armored attacks and then loses armor to fpvs and artillery. It is so predictable.

Russia doing armoured attacks to advance upon and overcome dug-in positions.
OoKrayyEenas don't have much artillery left, so that's not as much of a threat (until new US aid surge gives them more artillery)
Russians much better at drone-jamming now than before, so that situation has been improving.

Turtle tanks improvised a somewhat augmented armour to enable the armoured attacks to succeed.

Jake Sullivan promising big counter-offensive in 2025, after US elections. I don't see how they seriously expect to still be in Whitehouse by then.

[srai]

^^^

Apparently, the aid artillery rounds have started reaching the front lines. Let’s see what happens.

Rest of 2024 for Ukraine would be to stabilize their frontlines. Russia has had the initiative for the last 6-8 months. There have been talks of Russian summer offensive from the north towards Kharkiv and Sumy.

[srai]

It has also come to light that $28 billion of the $61 billion US military aid package is actually for replacement of US stocks for previously donated military equipments/weapons.

[Rakesh]

Abram tanks to Humvees lined up in Moscow for selfie and parade

VIDEO: https://x.com/Trollstoy88/status/1787796967235490143 ---> The video of the German Leopard 2 tank aged like a fine wine.

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/narrative_hole/status/1787787376900903005 ---> The US told Ukraine to hide the Abrams, but here we are again. 7th destroyed US Abrams tank.

[Manish_P]

Abram tanks to Humvees lined up in Moscow for selfie and parade

VIDEO: https://x.com/Trollstoy88/status/1787796967235490143 ---> The video of the German Leopard 2 tank aged like a fine wine.

Some have responded by showing old clips of T series being hit and transforming into a flaming christmas pudding lit with sparkler

the internet is fairly democratic when it comes to memes

[srai]

Evolving weaponized drones


https://twitter.com/bloombergblower/sta ... 6232881168


https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 8069789696


https://www.businessinsider.com/photos- ... 2023-8?amp



https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/army-of-ground-drones/


https://www.businessinsider.com/photos- ... 2023-8?amp


https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/batt ... opy-drones

[dnivas]

Looks like RU has opened a new front in the North

[sanman]

Is the former NATO commander Stavridis just trying to mislead Russia with a new feint around Kaliningrad?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ia-estonia

[Arima]

Is the former NATO commander Stavridis just trying to mislead Russia with a new feint around Kaliningrad?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ia-estonia

Any move on kaliningrad is declaration of war by invading country.
If at all this happens it will be from the 3 Baltic slavic states who have generational hatred about Russkies.
Don't know what Nato generals are smoking.

[Pratyush]

Looking at the images of the ground based remotely operated vehicles. In terms of sophistication they are scalled up RC toys.

But credit to Ukrainians. That they have successfully developed these vehicles and are using these to good effect.

[srai]

^^^

Real combat product R&D with very rapid inception-to-fielding and continuous iterations.

By the end, Ukrainian drone manufacturers (200+) will be one of the top exporters for drones. It will be similar with the Russians. You can’t beat “combat-proven”!

[srai]

FPV drones

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVide ... _years_of/

Plus, there are also big multi-use rotor drones.

Maritime drones

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritim ... ution.html

Aerial long range drones

https://twitter.com/David_Hambling/stat ... 5579359581

Plus, ground drones (see pictures couple of posts back)



Ukraine Tests Over 50 Ground Platforms for Military Use

[srai]

Excellent summary of drone warfare in the Ukraine-Russia war

GAME OF DRONES

…
Next-generation drones with AI

In response to the increasing challenges posed by EW systems, both Ukraine and Russia are racing to develop drones guided by artificial intelligence. These drones identify and lock onto their targets without the need for communication with their pilot, making them impervious to signal jamming.
…

[rajkumar]

Russian T-90M survived 3 drone hits. New armor worked

[IndraD]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo The Russians simply walked in, Ukrainian troops in Kharkiv tell BBC