Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

[drnayar]

https://interestingengineering.com/mili ... olden-veil


The Golden Veil will provide missiles with the same level of radar reflection as large commercial planes like the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 when viewed from specific angles.

[sanman]

[bala]

China Pak Worried about India I Chinese Troops in Pakistan I Gilgit Baltistan I Col Ajay Raina

Col Ajay Raina says around 40,000 chinese troops are in Gilgit Baltistan for protecting their Karakorum roads into Xinjiang. The Chinese have 8 space stations placed within Pakland. Chinese are mining for copper and gold in Balochistan. Gwadar is a chinese naval base and China has gifted many submarines to Pak Navy, effectively the Pakis and hired hands for operating China subs. The Chinese aircrafts like J-10, J-17 etc that paks have are also to be used in conjunction with the China airforce. Chinese air force personnel are in Skardu air base in POJ&K.

Previous kangress govt of India signed a MOU with China (whose contents are not revealed publicly). They effectively sold India's national security to the Chinese.

Lt. Gen Jacob wrote an article in 2012 about the Chinese invasion into Gilgit Baltistan. Jacob Farj Rafael says: JFR: The Chinese are in Gilgit and are making a railroad. They are already there in strength. I don't think Pakistan is the problem. Pakistan and China combined would be the problem. Today, the Chinese want to take control of the whole of the northern territories. The Karakoram railroad will be extended to Gwadar. The Chinese will be on both sides, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. The Chinese are already on Ramree Island in Myanmar. The runway is 3000 metres.
The Karakoram highway is more for economic reasons. But that makes no sense when you are looking at thinly populated areas like the Shaksgam valley and the northern areas. The only thing is, they want to draw the boundary to the Karakoram pass which is not acceptable to us. It was neither planned nor considered and that would be a wrong thing to do, for us. We have always said that from point 1842, the line goes northwards...we didn't say it goes north-east to the Karakoram pass.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Jm-bhaCPtQ

[sanman]

China sabotages European pipeline

[bala]

Has China Got Stuck in Philippines I Bharats Emerging Role in South China Sea I Dr Pooja Bhat I Aadi

Dr. Pooja Bhatt is an expert of Philippines. She said that she was one of the advisers to Philippines who advised about taking journalists along with their ships that are threatened by the Chinese. Now the world understands the bullying by the Chinese in Philippines water.

The US has many naval bases in Philippines, but the US has told the Philippines that they fight their own battles against China. It is interesting that Philippines has bought Brahmos missiles (a joint India-Russia missile) from India and Philippines is interested in other weapons from India. This diversification by Philippines is counter for an ally of the US.

India playing in the south china sea arena is a wrinkle that China was not expecting. India can make these nations like Pakistan is for China on the western border of India.

[ramana]

Folk no YouTube videos.

[ramana]

Link: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/bh ... ow-2794475

Bhutan under China’s shadow

Inscrutable China Srikanth Kondapalli

China and Bhutan do not have diplomatic relations, but with Tibet coming under China’s rule in 1951, they share borders since. The Dalai Lama’s flight in 1959 resulted in Bhutan, a staunch Vajrayana Buddhist country, sealing borders with Tibet.

[sanman]

Folk no YouTube videos.

What's wrong with videos? I watch them and find them very informative.

[ramana]

As admin I make the rules.
They are mostly click bait without text.

[sanman]

As admin I make the rules.
They are mostly click bait without text.

Aer you saying you need some sentence or paragraph typed out along with the video?

Look at this one - I find it very relevant to this thread:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptAxJItFKA0

[sanjaykumar]

I think what some Indians think as per the discussion here is the point of this board. If you think a YT video merits referral to BRF, a short description and/or critique is appropriate.

[bala]

This write up is from Lt. Gen P R Shankar and all credits are due to him. I took some notes which I found useful and hopefully for the rest of us in BRF

Much of this is material culled from Chinese (origin in China) translated to English.

No communist country has been rich, because the moment people become rich then communism vanishes. If CCP were to survive then Communist China cannot allow rich people outside CCP to thrive. This effectively requires keeping the people non-rich for the CCP to continue its rule. Therefore Emperor wants poor people in a rich country like China.

Turning our attention to the various party congress edicts the following major guidelines occur:

18th party congress (Oct 2012 under Hu Jing tao)
. Opening (China's market) and reforms (privatization)
. Reunification
. Market principles
. Development

Achievement:
. major progress in reform and opening up
. reform of state-owned enterprise deepened
. reform of non public (i.e. private) sector of the economy registered sound growth
. the country's modern market system and macro-regulatory system have been steadily improved with reforms in finance & taxation, banking, prices, science & technology, education, social security, medicine & pubic health and public institutions. The open economy reached new heights with import/export volume ranking #2 in the world.
. Advancing China's reunification, peaceful in the best interest of the nation, including Taiwan.

Key Takeaways:
. persevere in reform and opening up
. apply the spirit of reform and innovation to all aspects of governance
. keep improving the socialist market economy
. adhere to basic state policy of opening up to the outside world

19th party congress (Oct. 2017 under Emperor)
. New era, china has arrived, rich and strong
. Chinese dream
. Rejuvenation
. Unbalanced development
. Common prosperity
. State control

what happened due to KungFlu/Covid:
. common prosperity
. wolf warriors
. lock down
. dual circulation
. property, Edu tech and fin tech (all faced problems)

what is dual circulation:
. dual circulation strategy cuts dependence on overseas markets and technology in it long-term development
. China will rely on internal circulation - domestic cycle of production, distribution and consumption for its development, supported by innovation and upgrades to the economy and consumption.
. Emperor noted that internal circulation will be supported by external circulation

Other happenings:
. Chinese wolf warriors ramped up their rhetoric
. 3 red line held back property developers - cap on debt in relation to cash on hand, value of assets and proportion of equity in business
. Edu Tech and Fin Tech drawn back due to fear of data and its control

In 2017 Emperor did this on his own:
. amended the constitution
. incorporated the Emperor ideology on socialism thereby elevating himself on par with Mao and Deng
. cemented his path to third term

Achievement:
. historic juncture in china's development
. china has grown rich, stood up and become strong. Bright prospects of rejuvenation.
. Chinese wisdom and approach to solving problems facing humankind applauded
. national rejuvenation is greatest dream of the Chinese people.
. work towards promoting common prosperity due to contradiction: unbalanced and inadequate development for people's ever-growing need for better life
. foster new type of international relations and build a community with shared future for mankind
. Chinese dream can be realized only in peaceful international environment under stable international order. China will continue its efforts to safeguard peace and global development and uphold international order.
. break administrative monopolies and preclude market monopolies.
. great rejuvenation of Chinese nation

Key Takeaways:
. both China and world in the midst of profound and complex changes
. china stands tall and firm in the East
. China in an important period of strategic opportunity for development; the prospects are bright but the challenges are severe
. China applied a new vision of development and developing a modernized economy

Emperor reiterated:
. keep to the path of socialism
. uphold the people's democratic leader
. uphold the leadership of CCP of China
. uphold marxism-leninism and Mao Zedong's thought

20th party congress (oct. 2022 under Emperor)
. security
. military
. chinese dream
. rejuvenation
. state control
. dark clouds
. black swan and gray rhino
. economy back seat (admission of reality)

Some new things in 20th party congress:
. security
. military

Other terms were introduced like Strategy/Strategic, Struggle, Risk, Challenge. Hong Kong and Taiwan became talking points. These culminated in the following summary:
. Dark warnings of looming threats for China
. China is entering a period of strategic opportunities, risks and challenges
. China is facing drastic changes in international landscape especially attempts to blackmail, contain, blockade and exert maximum pressure on China
. China's challenges include a sluggish global economy and regional conflicts and disturbances
. warning of black swan (unforeseen/unlikely events) and gray rhino (obvious high impact threats that are neglected)
. external attempts to suppress and contain china may escalate at any time

Leads to the following:
. prioritization of security
. a new section devoted to national security
. countering sanctions, stockpiling of food, energy resources and ensuring supply chain security
. cooperation replaced by a less ambitious term of positive interaction
. peaceful coexistence is becoming difficult especially with US

Emperor changed to the following:
. emphasis on quality rather than pace of economic expansion
. willingness to accept sacrificed growth as steep price for national security
. previous party goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2020 or doubling the size of economy by 2021 was not re-emphasized

Emperor started a cult propaganda:
. 3 stages of people's republic or trio of 30 years
. Mao up to cultural revolution
. Deng era up to Jiang and Hu 2012
. Emperor era
. started pre history writing
. created 2 establishes: core leader of party, ideas and guiding principles of China's future development
. create 2 safeguards: core status within party and centralized authority over China

These things caused the following:
. some people lack confidence in socialist political system. Laws were being ignored or not strictly followed.
. misguided patterns of thinking: money worship, hedonism, egocentricity, historical nihilism. To much rife and disorder.
. system for safeguarding national security was inadequate. Capacity to respond to major risks were insufficient. Many shortcoming with national defense and military
. Institutions and mechanisms for implementing policy of one country two systems in Hong Kong and Macao not well developed and posed a grave threat to national security
. many were worried about future of the CCP and this caused many to flee to other nations

China is now facing dilemmas:
. how to reduce debt while maintaining growth
. how to reduce energy intensive production while the economy continues to rely on heavy industries
. how to get markets to exert financial discipline while govt tries to strengthen state control
. how to restrain galloping wealth inequality while relying on private sector to generate wealth
. how to encourage private sector innovation while cutting down large successful private enterprises to size
. even if no crises materialize there is the looming demographics crisis, high debt levels and an inefficient financial system that will constrain China's growth

What is China doing:
. china replaced property sector investment into manufacturing investments.
. manufacturing sector is in slump with no international demand. Many manufacturing items are at over-capacity.
. pharma, automotive, electronic are in slump. photovoltaics and lithium battery have overcapacity. China is hoping global demand picks up in these areas.
. china is adding 2500 km of High Speed Railway. HSR is running at only 50% utilization nationwide.
. china is retrenching workers in manufacturing sector. Many are going back to their villages.
. China purged many top leadership in many areas citing anti-corruption, rules broken, etc. The military has seen many high profile people in rocket force summarily dismissed.

[drnayar]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-military

The US assessments cited several examples of the impact of graft, including missiles filled with water instead of fuel and vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively, one of the people said..

[sanman]

[bala]

Elmer Yuen was a founder of Hong Kong Parliament. He keenly watches China and its economy. Currently he is a VC. In PGurus he claims that Emperor came to US during APEC meeting in San Francisco, CA. He wanted to bail out the real estate sector in China and drew up a whitelist of companies to bail out immediately. China has 1+ T parked in US treasuries and asked Biden/Yellen to lend him 900 B for the purpose of stimulating China's economy. The request was denied. Investors in China brought dollars and China promised them they can take back their investment in dollars. So the stash of investment that came into China is now being removed by the investors.

Internal consumption is down, except bare essentials. Orders are non-existent from international economies, so manufacturing is retrenching back. The CCP is circulating a letter against Emperor. However Emperor is supreme and unless there is a viable challenger nothing will happen.

Around 200 million workers mostly farmers in rural areas are back home. The farm labor provided the workforce for manufacturing and other jobs including construction. Out of work peasants are a potent force and there could be an uprising and ultimately a political turmoil. There is scarcity of food and fuel mainly due to loss of income.

Elmer predicts something may happen this year in China which can cause a quickening, sudden and unintended consequences, including perhaps a breakup of China!

More details here..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTarzg78lcU

[Pratyush]

The thing is that PRC has been falling for the last few decades.

It always manages to survive. Due to its own luck or through the stupidity of others.

So unless the collapse actually happens, I am not getting too excited by predictions of doom and gloom.

[SRajesh]

^^100% sir
same said about Pakis and they are surviving as well.
Unless there's a coup or attempted coup that is widely known in west, the West will be stupid as usual and buy cheap goods.

[ramana]

The idea of Xi Jinping as an Emperor is BRF first. Lurkers copied it without acknowledging. However they conflate Despot with Emperor.
You can see it in Gen PRS talk.
XJP is a traditional Chinese Huang Di.
There is a lot of meaning that goes with it which is lost when you mean.despot but call him Emperor.
Deng, Jiang, and Hu are.mere managers sitting on the throne.

[ramana]

I think we need to read Gen Narvane's book deeply.
It marks a sea change for how Indian.military operates since 1947 and produced desired results.

[ramana]

Elmer Yuen comes on Pgurus and has the Chiang Kai Shek wet dream.
Fools lots of people scared of China.
China is not the monster they make it to be.

[bala]

China has sinicisized an Ancient Civilization called Tibet. The region was broken into 5 administrative sections and the actual tibetian area is much smaller than it originally was. Claude Arpi provides a treasure trove of info on Tibet. Many places in Tibet are renamed by the Chinese. The language spoken is mandarin in Tibet, obliterating the local tibetian language. Children lose track of their mother tongue. The Chinese have moved the han clan into Tibet. The border area are being manned by Tibetians from the hinterland, these people have been trained by the Chinese to be hostile towards India. The Chinese are also changing the nature of the religion practiced by the traditional tibetian buddhists which came from Nalanda. The han chinese men are marrying tibetian women. The Chinese also have their own dalai lama and don't accept the current dalai lama.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el9TVa4w37s

[VinodTK]

The ruling-party candidate strongly opposed by China wins Taiwan's presidential election

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Ruling-party candidate Lai Ching-te emerged victorious in Taiwan’s presidential election on Saturday and his opponents conceded, a result that will determine the trajectory of the self-ruled democracy’s relations with China over the next four years.

China had called the poll a choice between war and peace. Beijing strongly opposes Lai, the current vice president who abandoned his medical career to pursue politics from the grassroots to the presidency.

At stake is peace, social stability and prosperity on the island, 160 kilometers (100 miles) off the coast of China, which Beijing claims as its own and to be retaken by force if necessary.
:
:
:

[sanman]

China population declining.

Will this precipitate Beijing into going all-out for reunification? (aka. use-it-or-lose-it?)

[sanman]

is China betting massively on sea launch?

[bala]

Lobsang Sangay served as the Tibetan Prime Minister in exile from 2011 to 2021. He is the first person without a monastic background to hold this position. He was born in 1968 in a refugee community in Darjeeling, India. Sangay earned a Bachelor of Law degree from the University of Delhi. Later, he studied international law and democracy at Harvard University, eventually becoming an American citizen.

In this YT Lobsang Sangay explains how China invaded Tibet and forced the 14th Dalai Lama to take refuge in India. Tibet is illegally occupied by China. He insists that for India to understand China, it must comprehend Tibet's situation. Sangay also describes Beijing as an expansionist country and details how Tibet sought India's assistance before China's invasion. He also sheds light on the role of Tibetans in the Indian Special Forces, taking on China. Tibetan Special Frontier forces fought and sacrificed their lives for India in 1971 Bangladesh war, Kargil war in the 1990s and were involved in capturing Siachen Glacier from the Pukes.

Prime Minister Neverwho government betrayed Tibet and did not defend her despite a treaty being in place. Neverwho screwed up every foreign situation as PM and indeed it is a huge misfortune that he was the first PM of independent India. China is a member of P5 due to the rank stupidity of Neverwho. Sad we Indians have to carry this burden for centuries even after hard fought independence from the Britshits. Worse, he supplied rice to the invading Chinese army. Indians need to be informed about the cause of Tibet and the time has come to have a formal full status embassy of Tibet in Chanakyapuri key location. The worldwide Tibetan people are thankful to all the people of India and the government of India for always showing support, sustenance and immense love. They are ready to declare that areas like AP, Galwan, Aksai Chin are all India's territory. Their form of Buddhism came from Nalanda and many of Nalanda's lost text are in Tibetian monasteries, preserved as is.

Sangay recounts his parents' struggle for survival and their journey to seek refuge in India amid the Chinese occupation of Tibet. Around 5000 members of Tibet, under Andrung Gompho Tashi who was commander in chief of Tibetan army, had joined guerrilla war against China, despite knowing the fact that they are against a much bigger Chinese army they kept fighting. At Nyemo they bravely fought their biggest battle. Sangay's own father was a fighter. He speaks about China's overarching strategy to assert itself as the sole superpower and its tactics in claiming territories. He also predicts that, under Xi Jinping's rule, Taiwan is susceptible to a potential attack from China in 2024.

China-Tibet-Nehru Saga and the Escape of Dalai Lama With Lobsang Sangay

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WXWYRNhBOw

// I support a free and Independent Tibet.

[bala]

I am highlighting this YT by Ajay Raina who answers the question: Is Pak the lab China experiments its weapons?

What is revealed is that the Chinese equipment supplied to Pak is very sub-standard. The aircrafts, weapons, radars, etc are very poor and do not work at all. Pak has 4 china supplied frigates which do not work and are kept in storage. BTW Iran also takes china's help but their engineers are way more capable (Ajay claims the Iranian engineers are better than Germans!) and Iran has built up its missile capability independently. Iran was able to send their missiles into Pak recently and Pak had no counter.

Also Ajay mentions that many nations which had chinese military equipment are completely disillusioned and some have returned them back to China.

Now the question is considering all the bravado talk from China and the build up of its own military what would happen in a real war scenario and whether the entire equipment of China would be slaughtered by superior western equipment. China is no Russia in terms of capability in weapons.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsHdnS7zrNI

[sanman]

Us Ambassador to Japan: This Is how China Impacts the Region

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwyvSfX7GTE

[bala]

Raisina Dialogue 2024 focus on China, the indo pacific conundrum and unravelling the west's stance on china

Speakers:
Carl Bildt, Former Prime Minister, Sweden
Allison Hooker, Senior Vice President, American Global Strategies, United States
Abigaël Vasselier, Head of Foreign Relations, Mercator Institute for China Studies, Germany
Matt Turpin, Senior Advisor, Palantir Technologies, United States
Theodore Bunzel, Head of Geopolitical Advisory, Lazard, United States

Moderator:
Róbert Vass, Founder and President, GLOBSEC, Slovakia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhZPAU_SSq0

Decoding the West’s China Stance: From the vantage point of the Indo-Pacific, the West’s narratives on dealing with China’s rise appear increasingly confused. Western business continues to depend upon Chinese productivity and industrial heft, and “decoupling” has become “derisking”. The Chinese government appears confident of rising above any tech-based embargoes and has not shown any sign of decreasing pressure on Taiwan.

What are the strategies that the countries of Europe and the United States intend to use to retain a technological edge and economic lead over China?

What is the depth of commitment that the countries of the Indo-Pacific could expect if a crisis blows up — say around Taiwan — in 2024, given that politics in some countries has turned inward, and there are already two conflagrations in progress?

As the Chinese economy stalls, is Western business more ready to decouple from China in 2024 than it was earlier?

// some notes:
// Last year in 3 rd quarter FDI became -ve and the overall drop is 80+ % for China. The Risks of doing business in China is getting larger and the taiwan threat is looming. Companies in the west are looking at de-risking from China. Europe is slightly deluded - they have Russia as enemy # 1, while China is openly supporting Russia in the conflict in Ukraine. However the #1 trader for Europe is China, there is deluge of cheap cars flooding Europe. Germany continues with trade with China and so are other european nations.

The Americans on the panel have a more nuanced approach. One was openly saying they want Dems to be elected and China is crucial for them (sleeping with the snake will bite you!). The Palantir guy was more straightforward saying that the alliance of West, Japan, India can take on China quite easily. China is closing themselves off and this is counterproductive for China. Domestic internal consumption with China is dropping and so are exports. This will have a huge dent on the economy and it depends on China will manage both.

[bala]

Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan I How China Tried to Burn India One Flame at a Time - Part 1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-0DRuZux4I

Maj Gen Rajiv provides a good history of China, which is a must watch. Some history on India is also discussed. In the early 1900s the influence of players in China included Japan, Soviet Union and later on the US.

China has tried to burn India, with small thrusts and cuts here and there, with the intent of destroying it.

BTW this YT provides a good overview of the current state of China. Elmer Yuen, in PGurus, take is on the emphasis of bankruptcy facing China. Great depression is the outcome. 50% are unemployed, construction is at a halt, factories are closed, many are back in villages. Angela Chao,sister-in-law of Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnel, died in suspicious circumstances.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf3Uh7YFwl0

[bala]

The Chinese Threat to India | Tibet and End Game of Xi Jinping by Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan

In Jaipur Dialogues:
Chinese threat to India, with a special focus on Tibet and the strategic maneuvers of Xi Jinping

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8m0S9ZaB9M

There is some background on how Xi Jinping maneuvured around Hu Jintao and grabbed power. Emperor Eleven took a strong stance against the Philippines in Scarborough Shoal in 2012 and Obummer backed of. CPC seeing this victory promoted Emperor Eleven. Emperor Eleven removed all his rivals. Li Keqiang the premier was groomed by Hu Jintao and Emperor Eleven took him out over time. In 2021 Li Keqiang publicly stated out of 900 million workers 600 million were getting by with 1000 yuan per month vs poverty was pegged at 1500 yuan per month. Also he said that GDP was pumped up by 2% each year from 2006. 5 leading Banks of China have negative rating, large construction companies have filed bankruptcy. There are millions of cars piled up in dealership and lying on roadsides. Salary of all govt employees is cut by 50%. The question is what is the GDP of China? PLA reports to the CCP they are not to the nation of China. PLA has already said they are not prepared for war, lack of training, equipment are cited as reasons. Top leaders of PLA have been fired or replaced with loyalist. 4 theater commanders were replaced. China's foray into Galwan and Doklam were disasters, they were slapped hard by the Indian forces. But Emperor Eleven is obstinate and block headed.

[bala]

Adi Achint in this interview with Jaipur Dialogues, says a lot of things about the armed forces of India, the Airforce too. However, there is a section around 47:00 he talks about the Chinese forces. He reveals a lot of details about them including the theater of operation around Ladakh/Arunachal pradesh. Worth watching and understanding the strengths of India vs China and the world wide propaganda projecting China as some great military power (the reality is far from it). Their great J20 stealth aircraft is showing cracks in its body. Also the irrelevance of people like SuSwa who knows mandarin etc, when there is google translate nowadays. The Chinese are caught in their own conundrum - they don't want India army sitting on the borders, since that would mess up their Taiwan invasion plan. When the Chinese initiate the Taiwan plan, India will walk right into Tibet and free it from the clutches of the PLA. The PLA has no fighting experience and their one-child wonders are a pampered lot who will flee at the first scuffle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peJv4zQ_a5M

[Manish_P]

...When the Chinese initiate the Taiwan plan, India will walk right into Tibet and free it from the clutches of the PLA...

Has GoI given any indication about a change in our position about Tibet being a part of China?

[SSridhar]

^ Not AFAIK. 3rd term could be different.

[sanman]

WSJ: Chinas Over 200X USA's Ship-Building Capacity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRVVXDyg3RY