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A_Gupta wrote: ↑21 Feb 2024 09:10
> And don’t forget that US has the largest debt in the world which is 130% of its GDP.
No, Japan and Italy exceed the US in the major economies.
No US has over $35 T in debt whereas Japan and Italy has $8.6T and $3.1T respectively.
> Has actual productivity increased or it’s just mostly inflation?
Actual productivity.
I would like to see that data pls. This is what I have:
In the manufacturing sector, productivity decreased 0.8 percent in 2023, reflecting a decrease in output of 0.5 percent and an increase in hours of 0.3 percent. Manufacturing unit labor costs increased 5.5 percent in 2023, as hourly compensation increased 4.7 percent while productivity decreased 0.8 percent.
2. The employment numbers are always revised. This time the expectation is that it will be revised downwards.
3. Unemployment numbers do *NOT* count people who have given up on finding employment <- this is the biggest US Shanghai statistics.
4. Productivity growth vs. productivity improvement? Automating a process leads to productivity improvement, but is a one time and does not lead to sustained productivity growth. And AI is not going to get us there any time soon.
Chinese economy is in dumps. Even US Economy. We should have a thread on US Economy Stress Watch.
Twitter thread with the hashtag #TheOtherChina, running since Sep 2018.
Basically a chronicle of the warning signs pertaining to Chinese economy. Might be a useful resource for those interested. Link
Another Chinese property giant facing crisis:
Embattled China property giant Country Garden faces liquidation petition
Looks like this has slipped under the radar
Multiple markers showing slowing down or rather clamping down of Dragon's Breath!!
Will 2024 mark a key event
There was once a time when American CEOs looked to China as a land of opportunity. That time may be long gone.
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Views similar to one of my advisors who are pushing the line that China is in recovery while India is late stage.
Excellent for people who manage their own investments. As the cheeni stocks get artificially boosted, exit out of mutual funds/etf's that invest primarily in Cheen and get into India specific mutual funds/ETFs.
For some of the investors, they do not have a choice. That is, 3-4 years back, there were not many India specific mutual funds or ETFs while all "international" funds invested primarily in Cheen and some in India. Now there is choice.
There is no choice if the HR is run by a cheeni or a gora/gori. All the retirement savings is invested in company picks and you do not have any choice!
I do like Rabouin's insights, but he is wrong on Cheen. Cheen is in a death spiral.