Hamas attack.on Israel. Oct 2023

[AkshaySG]

Israel will do what it thinks is best but that will not take away from the fact that this scorched earth approach will lead to a lot more radicalization within Palestinians and arabs and help Hamas/Iranian recruitment for the next several decades

Not to mention it will weaken its standing with the Americans who have usually been mostly pro Israel for the last 75 years.

During the mid 90s and and even a few moments in the 00s it seemed a two state approach could have been viable but that has been blown to bits first by Oct 7 and then by what's happneded since.

[nachiket]

The top Hamas leaders are sitting safe in Qatar and their funding also comes from Qatar and other Arab countries. Even if the Israelis can find and kill every single Hamas commander and footsoldier in Gaza, which is likely impossible (some may have escaped and others disappeared into the civilian population), they will eventually reform anyway. There will be no lack of new recruits after the devastation in Gaza which will be used for propaganda and recruiting purposes. Every young man and boy left homeless, jobless and having seen loved ones die will make a beeline for any Hamas recruiting center as soon as the Israeli troops leave. Constant propaganda means that they don't even believe that Hamas massacred Israeli civilians and started this war or they don't care because Yehudis are kaffirs anyway. Disastrous situation which is not going to resolve anytime soon.

[vera_k]

Israel is losing the PR war and not getting its message across.

One of the more insidious fake news making its way on the young adult campus grapevine is that Israel could rescue the hostages if they wanted to. Except that they much rather prefer killing more civilians.

[AkshaySG]

A couple of days ago news came out that World Central Kitchen workers died in a recent strike by Israel.
This is a very popular aid org and Chef Jose Andreas who started it runs in the liberal circles of Clinton/Obama and is extremely popular among the standard college educated white demograhpic.

The reason i point this out specifically is that Israel is losing its perception even among these folks , It is no longer only the "far-left" or Muslim-americans or the college age hippies that are coming out in force against the war but middle of the road white Americans. This will inevitably lead to decrease in military support which is so critical to Isreal

How does that matter to India ? Well if the US falters in its aid then Israel may look to Europe and India for more direct military aid and we would have to decide how to respond. We would also need to decide how firm we are on advocating for a two state solution as any hope for that blows up with every passing week.

[Tanaji]

I humbly put it that we are in position to give military aid to anyone. We are in dire straits ourselves. If anything the Ukraine and Hamas war has taught us is that the ammunition and other expenditures are on such a scale that we are off on our war reserves by a minimum of 3-5x if not more. Our generals should be asking for more storage, more shells, more gun barrels .., we have none to spare.

[sanman]

A couple of days ago news came out that World Central Kitchen workers died in a recent strike by Israel.
This is a very popular aid org and Chef Jose Andreas who started it runs in the liberal circles of Clinton/Obama and is extremely popular among the standard college educated white demograhpic.

The reason i point this out specifically is that Israel is losing its perception even among these folks , It is no longer only the "far-left" or Muslim-americans or the college age hippies that are coming out in force against the war but middle of the road white Americans. This will inevitably lead to decrease in military support which is so critical to Isreal

How does that matter to India ? Well if the US falters in its aid then Israel may look to Europe and India for more direct military aid and we would have to decide how to respond. We would also need to decide how firm we are on advocating for a two state solution as any hope for that blows up with every passing week.

After this strike which killed the 7 food workers, Israeli govt's response was that it knew it was hitting the aid convoy, but felt it had to do so, because the convoy visited a food warehouse which had an armed guard - and armed guard might have been Hamas. But the convoy was hit much after it left that warehouse. I'm stunned that they could sacrifice the lives of the international aid workers to kill that one guy? They repeatedly hit the convoy - after they hit the first car, the survivors then piled into the 2nd car. Then the Israelis later hit the 2nd car, and those survivors then piled into the 3rd car. The Israelis then hit the 3rd car, and finished them off. So we're talking about 3 different missile strikes here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCZx1oRLWuI

I think the Israeli explanation basically amounts to issuing threats with a smile, telling the international aid community "stay away, or we'll kill you next"

I think Netanyahu wants to go all-out to finish off the Palestinians completely, while Israeli public opinion will still allow it.

[Aditya_V]

Europe wants to send Aid and Aid workers to keep Gazans in Gaza while Israel/ USA these guys to emigrate and enrich the societies in Europe, simple.

[Cyrano]

Oct 7th remains a dastardly terrorist act. But Israel's response in the past few of months make it clear that this has to stop. You cannot imagine any peace solution this way.

Recent statements by Dr SJ do indeed indicate that we are no longer fully behind Israel in the way they are prosecuting this war. I'm trying to find a reference, it was in response to a question during his visit to Malaysia I think, the shift in our position was clear.

[sanman]

Biden warning Israel to change its policy or else US may change its policy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-ThEwPgKHY

[sanman]

Oct 7th remains a dastardly terrorist act. But Israel's response in the past few of months make it clear that this has to stop. You cannot imagine any peace solution this way.

Recent statements by Dr SJ do indeed indicate that we are no longer fully behind Israel in the way they are prosecuting this war. I'm trying to find a reference, it was in response to a question during his visit to Malaysia I think, the shift in our position was clear.

Israel automating their killing with AI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=799UJDl5qEE

[Pratyush]

Snip...

Recent statements by Dr SJ do indeed indicate that we are no longer fully behind Israel in the way they are prosecuting this war. I'm trying to find a reference, it was in response to a question during his visit to Malaysia I think, the shift in our position was clear.

India has always supported a two state solution. Nothing has changed in our position.

The war between Israel and Hamas is not our business and we are well served by not identifying too much with either side. If the Israelis need weapons that we can supply. Sell them and provide aid shipments to Gaza.

[ShauryaT]

I would be interested in some views on this lecture.

1. Thoughts on Israel involved in a "genocide" in Gaza?
2. Thoughts on Israel has lost escalation dominance as it relates to Hezbollah and Iran?
3. I am familiar with views amongst millennials/gen Z of the US population on this issue but I was wondering if there are similar views, in the elite segments of India?
4. Any thoughts on what Israel's relative end game is, once the bullets stop flying?
5. Israel's Long-term future as it relates to its economy, a relatively safe place to live/visit?

[sanman]

I would be interested in some views on this lecture.

1. Thoughts on Israel involved in a "genocide" in Gaza?

Netanyahu's govt are clearly trying to de-populate Gaza by making it unliveable.
They're using the campaign against Hamas as a pretext for this.

2. Thoughts on Israel has lost escalation dominance as it relates to Hezbollah and Iran?

I agree there -- although that may change if Trump comes back to power, because while Israel may no longer have escalation dominance over Iran, the United States would clearly still have escalation dominance over Iran, even if the latter goes nuclear.

I think you should pay attention to what Mearsheimer says @ 1:29:05
Trump is going to come back seeking to neutralize the Deep State. Whether he'll be successful remains to be seen. It may be a titanic battle.

3. I am familiar with views amongst millennials/gen Z of the US population on this issue but I was wondering if there are similar views, in the elite segments of India?

Have you heard of the INSTC - the proposed International North South Transport Corridor that would connect India and Russia? It runs through Iran.
This is gaining increasing currency among Indian planners because of the problems with US, which not only include their vilification campaign against India, but also their fiscal and financial irresponsibility which threaten to destroy the value of dollar-holders. Therefore India also needs to look at a de-dollarized future which limits its exposure to the dangerously fragile dollar.
That's why India has suddenly signed the 10-year agreement with Iran on Chabahar, because India feels a need to pursue this opportunity, or at least keep it open as an option.

4. Any thoughts on what Israel's relative end game is, once the bullets stop flying?

Netanyahu's govt have no end game, other than to make Gaza so unliveable that Israel can present the world with a fait d'accompli, and tell the world that they've got to take the Palestinians out of there out of compassion, on the grounds that the place is unliveable.
So Netanyahu is riding the tiger. His coalition partners are the most radical extremists who will never accept anything other than immediate ethnic cleansing. Netanyahu's Likud party have also likewise traditionally been committed to a Jewish state that spans "from the river to the sea"

Netanyahu's coalition more realistic coalition partner, defense minister Yoav Gallant has publicly disagreed with Netanyahu by calling for a plan for some kind of Palestinian governance over Gaza that would not see the IDF stuck there occupying it in perpetuity while bearing unending casualties.

5. Israel's Long-term future as it relates to its economy, a relatively safe place to live/visit?

Did you notice what Mearsheimer said @ 1:27:28 about how, following the Oct 7 attack, over 500,000 Israelis left the country, and there was also a flood of applications from Israelis trying to regain Polish citizenship? Maybe these people see the handwriting on the wall.

Israel is very rapidly becoming a pariah state in the eyes of the world, with its only strong ally being the US.
South Africa's campaign at the ICC may bear fruit with Israeli officials being charged with war crimes, etc.
This divestment campaign may continue to gain traction, and ultimately suck out life from Israel's economy.
Various countries have announced their intention to give diplomatic recognition to a Palestinian state, and grant diplomatic facilities (Presumably this would be done for the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, while Hamas remains a pariah in the Western world)

Israel's future may be tied to the rise of multi-polarity, which may not be in its interests, since multi-polarity then limits the power of the United States as global hegemon, which Israel has been a clear beneficiary of.
We Indians of course welcome multi-polarity, which we see as important to our own rise.

[Aditya_V]

From everything I have seen, Qatar- US and Woke ecosystem have more control over Hamas than even Iran.

I suspect the whole game is to get the Gaza residents to Europe, for some reason and to make sure without getting hate from the Jewish Lobby, the Muslim lobby votes exactly as required in various elections including India. Its an issue which keeps the community motivated and united.

[Vayutuvan]

Have you heard of the INSTC - the proposed International North South Transport Corridor that would connect India and Russia? It runs through Iran.

So what happens to IMEC? Is it your view/Mershiemer's that India can play on both sides assuming that it is a two-player game - US/Israel vs. Iran (supported by Russia)? India is not really a player in the West Asia game, even if it is not a two player game. The other players are Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Qatar, and KSA. There are shifting alliances but there is a clear divide between USA+Israel on one side and Iran+Syria+Lebanon on the other side.

[Vayutuvan]

The war between Israel and Hamas is not our business and we are well served by not identifying too much with either side. If the Israelis need weapons that we can supply. Sell them and provide aid shipments to Gaza.

Very well put.

[sanman]

Have you heard of the INSTC - the proposed International North South Transport Corridor that would connect India and Russia? It runs through Iran.

So what happens to IMEC? Is it your view/Mershiemer's that India can play on both sides assuming that it is a two-player game - US/Israel vs. Iran (supported by Russia)?

Jaishankar has always said we keep multiple options open, especially since there's a pattern of any initial arrangement with US being frequently reneged upon by them.

Notice that after Oct 7, we saw Washington quickly move its venom campaign against India into high gear. It seems like they were only being nice to us while IMEC was imminent. As soon as Oct 7 happened, then IMEC was put on the back burner, and so was any cordiality towards India.

Israel-Saudi peace agreement was to be the lynchpin for an IMEC deal, but Oct 7 has made that impossible. Saudis are now unwilling to do any peace deal without some kind of grand bargain that includes 2-state solution for Palestinians. But of course Netanyahu govt are totally against any 2-state solution.

India is not really a player in the West Asia game, even if it is not a two player game. The other players are Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Qatar, and KSA. There are shifting alliances but there is a clear divide between USA+Israel on one side and Iran+Syria+Lebanon on the other side.

Israel likes to claim that the Arab gulf states are on their side (even if the Arab masses aren't)